30.6.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 30.6

PK-37 - AC Kajaani +0,25 2 64,5% 1,79 8/10 188bet
PK-37 - AC Kajaani O3.0 67,5% 1,72 7/10 188bet
HauPa - KPV -0,25 2 54% 2,23 4/10 Sbobet
HauPa - KPV U3.0 62,5% 1,94 6/10 188bet
GBK - TP-47 +1,5 2 61,5% 1,85 4/10 Sbobet

PK-37 - AC Kajaani 32 20 48
o/u 2.5: 74 26

Have to say I'm surprised to see AC Kajaani's odds being so high, because so far their season has been nearly perfect. PK-37 might be second in the standings but personally I think they're miles behind GBK and PS Kemi, so if anything they have the potential to be the least worst team of all the others this year. Over with a line of 3.0 is an automatic choice for AC Kajaani games this year.

FC YPA - PS Kemi 25 19 56
o/u 2.5: 70 30

The fact that YPA has been pretty poor lately despite winning a couple of games has not been missed by the bookies, and giving over 60% to an away team just feels too steep this year so it looks like no bets. Going just by gut instict PS Kemi would be an obvious choice, because with YPA's injury problems they are classes above the home team and their recent performances have been much better too.

HauPa - KPV 30 22 48
o/u 2.5: 60 40

HauPa pulled a good match almost out of nowhere when they drew with GBK. KPV could have some value with these estimations, but I'm more interested in the under. The only thing that's really worrying is the uncharacteristically leaky defense of HauPa, but if there's at least some improvement then we're looking at really inefficient offenses and good defenses (well, at least in KPV's case).

GBK - TP-47 60 18 22
o/u 2.5: 71 29

TP-47's performance against HauPa was excellent and if at least the slightest bit of that carries over to this game then they're definitely worth a small bet because they're not nearly as bad as the table shows. However, a line-up check could be a good idea, because TP-47's preview has some indecipherable stuff that could mean they're having some injury troubles.

Highlights Honka - JJK FT 0-1

Kakkonen highlights: GBL - HauPa FT 2-2

27.6.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.6

PS Kemi - FC Santa Claus O3.25 61% 1,82 6/10 188bet

PK-37 - FC YPA 53 21 26
o/u 2.5: 64 36

Looking at the overall picture of this round there's not much catching my eye. Bookies have estimated PK-37's chances of winning a bit higher than me, but unless YPA decides to release a preview to update their injury situation I'm not that interested in betting on them. Their captain Heikkilä should return, but it's doubtful anyone else will be back.

AC Kajaani - KPV 55 19 26
o/u 2.5: 71 29

The abomination from Kajaani didn't show any ill effects from their second loss of the season as they easily beat Warkaus last week. However, unlike Warkaus, KPV is probably more for real so the 1,70 type of odds are really not worth the interest. Regarding totals this is also a meeting of the opposites and with the 3.25 line it's hard to justify either choice.

PS Kemi - FC Santa Claus 60 18 22
o/u 2.5: 75 25

Santa Claus decided to play a low-scoring game last week, but an away game and rejuvenated PS Kemi should give the over a fairly good chance to occur. If they play properly like last week, Santa would be more than a match for Kemi but for now I'm not going to waste anything on +1,25.

GBK - HauPa 63 18 19
o/u 2.5: 68 32

In theory HauPa might have some value, but their results have finally started to look like the quality of their team, which is not good enough for this level. GBK's results are nowhere near what they should be, but they do certainly have the ability to make this really ugly for HauPa so I'm going to skip both the under and the +1,5.

Highlights Jaro - MyPa FT 1-0

Highlights Inter - VPS FT 1-1

Highlights HJK - TPS FT 0-0

25.6.2012

FIN clubs in european competition 2012


UEFA Champions League, 2. karsintakierros:
HJK – Knattspyrnufélag Reykjavíkur (Islanti)
UEFA Europa League, 1. karsintakierros:
JJK – Stabæk Fotball (Norja)
KuPS – Llanelli AFC (Wales)
MYPA – Cefn Druids AFC (Wales)
UEFA Europa League, 2. karsintakierros:
FC Inter – FC Twente (Hollanti) / UE Santa Coloma (Andorra)
JJK / Stabæk Fotball – FC Pyunik (Armenia) / FK Zeta (Montenegro)
KuPS / Llanelli AFC – Maccabi Netanya FC (Israel)
MYPA / Cefn Druids AFC – FC Rapid București (Romania)

kymppipaikka.fi

22.6.2012


10 + rounds played - are we any wiser?


HJK to win the title, Inter runners-up, Haka to fight relegation with Jaro? Time will tell, European fixtures and transfers likely to confuse things in July



In short last round only MIFK won deservedly and HJK naturally had their chances, but TPS were in deep trouble throughout the game vs MyPa, Lahti should had won poor visitors - (according to reports neither really deserved any points there) - Haka and the match in Vaasa VPS vs Honka was seriously even and could had gone either way. In the previous day Inter would had deserved a narrow victory over Jaro but unless you score enough and take the win then you can be pretty sure the other team will. The best collection of highlights is still here:


MYPA
Looks like a very similar case to Haka last season. Everyone - me first - is dooming them to hell because of the weakest possible player material and bad preseason, but the early season success helps them to safety by half-season and only after that will the feelgood-feeling destroy the rest of the season. They have even gotten new players in and for once I have to admit that at this point they are of midtable class as well as most of the other clubs and they can win games on their own. The situation will change at some point; their home ground is being renovated and turned into artificial right now, they have a lot of away games and on Monday also will be the draw for Europe league and those fixtures often mess badly with Veikkausliiga clubs because of narrow player material. They have also the cup semifinal to be played in August vs KuPS, so I must admire and wonder the success so far and for MyPa and their few fans this has been a dream season.

Veikkausliiga team news:
  • HJK important mf Erfa Zeneli injured for several weeks.
  • Haka gk Pesonen possibly out for the rest of the season, but he has not played much this season
  • VPS have found a goal-scorer in Steven Morrissey. Hugely important up-front.
  • Jaro´s new signing Jonke helps in keeping the ball in the attacking third. Big and strong man.
  • no confirmed suspensions yet
The odds have been out; my eyewitnesses at Turku are very keen on opposing both Turku clubs Inter and TPS based on recent performances; Honka are worth -075 hc at home vs Lahti but the rest of the matches look very tricky. JJK´s defence has been a joke recently (ok, all season) and as the problem is that they do not have the players needed that problem is very likely to continue throughout the season.  KuPS have been good after the break and as MIFK are not great on their travels backing KuPS might become the pick of the day.





At Ykkönen

We had the very tasty Viikingit winning in a comfortable manner over OPS;RoPS and AC Oulu both dominating one half each, SJK and JIPPO having a goal-rich 3-1 game where the JIPPO preview once more proved to be bullshit as even those player confirmed to be unavailable where playing. JIPPO Suoraniemi red card. KooTeePee losing 0-2 vs HIFK is a bit of a shocker and there are talks about sacking the manager because the player material is far better than results show; Hämeelinna equalized to 1-1 at 95 mins only to concede a 1-2 goal 10 seconds later from the re-start and as they received once more a red card (Tuomenoja) they do have a mountain to climb on Monday at RoPS. PK-35 were expectedly out-of-form and hosting Viikingit on Monday in the derby is not going to be easy. I am still planning on backing KooTeePee when they visit OPS; it will be a game between over-rated and under-rated clubs who are of the same class and some good +0.75 perhaps is to be expected.



Have a nice weekend!


21.6.2012

FIN women almost 100 % guaranteed their place at Sweden 2013

Which probably only means that it is time for me to visit Sweden as well.

Annika Kukkonen celebrating - and for a reason! /pic source IS/Suomela

From UEFA.com:
"The match schedule for UEFA Women's EURO 2013 has been decided with the 12-team tournament in Sweden to run from 10 to 28 July of next year.
Each group will be played at two venues: Group A at Gamla Ullevi (Gothenburg) and Örjans Vall (Halmstad), Group B at Öster Arena (Vaxjo) and Kalmar Arena (Kalmar), and Group C at Nya Parken (Norrkoping) and Linköping Arena (Linkoping).
Matches kick off on Wednesday 10 July with the first Group A games, Sweden playing in Gothenburg and the other match in Halmstad. That section continues on 13 and 16 July, with Sweden playing their second match at Gamla Ullevi and their third at Örjans Vall.
Group B runs on 11, 14 and 17 July, the top seeds playing their opening two games in Vaxjo before travelling to Kalmar with Group C playing a day later each time, the highest-ranked side having two games in Norrkoping and the third in Linkoping.
The top two from each group plus the two best third-placed teams will progress to the quarter-finals, the first two in Halmstad and Vaxjo on 21 July, and the others in Kalmar and Linkoping the following day. The semi-finals will take place on 24 July in Gothenburg and Linkoping and the final is on Sunday 28 July at the new Solna Arena near Stockholm.
So far only the hosts are confirmed in the finals but that could be changed when the next full set of qualifying group games are played in mid-June. The groups conclude on 19 September with the winners and the runners-up with the best record against the teams first, third, fourth and fifth in their section progressing to the final tournament. The other six runners-up go to the play-offs on 20/21 and 24/25 October to decide the last three names in the draw on Friday 9 November.
UEFA Women's EURO 2013 schedule
DateGroup/StageMatchVenueKick-off
Wed 10 JulyASWE v A3Gothenburgtbc
Wed 10 JulyAA2 v A4Halmstadtbc
Thu 11 JulyBB1 v B3Vaxjotbc
Thu 11 JulyBB2 v B4Kalmartbc
Fri 12 JulyCC1 v C3Norrkopingtbc
Fri 12 JulyCC2 v C4Linkopingtbc
Sat 13 JulyAA4 v SWEGothenburgtbc
Sat 13 JulyAA2 v A3Halmstadtbc
Sun 14 JulyBB4 v B1Vaxjotbc
Sun 14 JulyBB2 v B3Kalmartbc
Mon 15 JulyCC4 v C1Norrkopingtbc
Mon 15 JulyCC2 v C3Linkopingtbc
Tue 16 JulyAA3 v A4Gothenburgtbc
Tue 16 JulyASWE v A2Halmstadtbc
Wed 17 JulyBB3 v B4Vaxjotbc
Wed 17 JulyBB1 v B2Kalmartbc
Thu 18 JulyCC3 v C4Norrkopingtbc
Thu 18 JulyCC1 v C2Linkopingtbc
Sun 21 JulyQuarter-final 11A v 3B/CHalmstadtbc
Sun 21 JulyQuarter-final 42A v 2BVaxjotbc
Mon 22 JulyQuarter-final 21B v 2CKalmartbc
Mon 22 JulyQuarter-final 31C v 3A/BLinkopingtbc
Wed 24 JulySemi-final 1QF1 v QF4Gothenburgtbc
Wed 24 JulySemi-final 2QF2 v QF3Norrkopingtbc
Sun 28 JulyFinalSF1 v SF2Solnatbc

FIN FA match report:

Highlights VPS - Honka FT 2-0 (1-0)

Highlights AC Oulu - RoPS FT 0-0

20.6.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.6.

Warkaus JK - AC Kajaani O3.25 61% 1,90 8/10 Sbobet
HauPa - TP-47 U3.25 58% 1,98 3/10 Sbobet
FC Santa Claus - PK-37 O3.25 61% 1,90 8/10 12bet
KPV - PS Kemi +0,25 1 58% 2,31 4/10 12bet
KPV - PS Kemi U3.0 55,5% 1,84 2/10 Sbobet
Warkaus JK - AC Kajaani +0,25 2 61% 1,70 2/10 12bet

Warkaus JK - AC Kajaani 35 20 45
o/u 2.5: 75 25

What looked like a relegation battle two months ago is now a top clash. The last time AC Kajaani lost they bounced back quite nicely, but somebody has already dropped the odds to unacceptable levels. The over, however, is again a very tasty option because AC Kajaani seems to continue conceding and scoring goals at a very high rate.

HauPa - TP-47 50 22 28
o/u 2.5: 60 40

I'm not going to play TP-47 until they get a proper win without cabinet play, but that said bookies other than Veikkaus seem to be overreacting quite harshly because I remember TP-47 actually being favorites last week when these teams played against each other, and it's not like anything drastic has happened since then. HauPa will get back their main striker Makowski, TP-47 is keeping a tight lid on the news at the moment. Under is slightly interesting because HauPa's home matches are usually pretty boring to watch (last match that had over 3 goals was in last August).

FC Santa Claus - PK-37 44 20 36
o/u 2.5: 75 25

Now that Santa Claus seems to be actually serious in their effort to do the best possible Korsholm/Virkiä-impersonation I'm just going to extend my virtual middle finger for them for stirring up the fixing talk again and skip the 1x2 entirely. Over is an obvious choice with the 3.25 line in case the home team decides again to defecate the sleeping facility, so to speak.

KPV - PS Kemi 40 23 37
o/u 2.5: 57 43

PS Kemi may be slowly gathering speed now, but you have to give some respect to a strangely effective but many times too draw-happy KPV-team who has only lost once this year. Though the odds movement suggests that there's some injury troubles for the home team, so I'll cut the stakes a bit just to be safe.

19.6.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 19.6

FC YPA - GBK 34 21 45
o/u 2.5: 70 30

Odds have swung wildly as usual, but nothing interesting has yet to come up in totals or handicaps. GBK will likely be without injuries, YPA will probably miss the same long-term injured players (Alasuutari, Akmethkanov, Pejic, Heikkilä).

Highlights Honka - Inter FT 2-1

Kakkonen highlights; MP - LPS FT 1-2

Highlights Haka - VPS FT 0-1

Boring boring VPS, or is it? Can not recommend watching this unless you have absolutely nothing else to do. I love the Tammela stadion though. Lineups:

Highlights TPS - FF Jaro FT 2-3

Entertaining game unless you are a TPS fan. The winning goal an absolute beauty. Lineups:

17.6.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 17.6.


PK-37 - HauPa U3.0 60,5% 1,82 6/10 188bet
PS Kemi - AC Kajaani O3.25 59% 1,92 6/10 188bet

PK-37 - HauPa 46 24 30
o/u 2.5: 53 47

HauPa looked appealing at first sight because PK-37 hasn't really done anything so far to deserve being considered a better team than HauPa. But HauPa will be missing a couple of important players in Makowski and Festus and they did play on Wednesday so they'll probably be more fatigued than PK-37. Under is an easy choice because neither team is known for their explosive attacking strength while at the same they have quite solid defenses for this level.

PS Kemi - AC Kajaani 42 20 38
o/u 2.5: 73 27

PS Kemi has been slowly improving but the bottom line is that AC Kajaani has consistently produced results and PS Kemi has not, so it's AC Kajaani or nothing for me. PS Kemi has been pretty sluggish so far when it comes to scoring goals, but 3.25 is just too good to miss when AC Kajaani is involved.

16.6.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 16.6.

FC YPA - FC Santa Claus +0,5 2 62% 1,82 6/10 12bet
FC YPA - FC Santa Claus O3.25 51% 2,08 2,5/10 12bet
GBK - Warkaus JK O3.5 52,5% 1,98 3/10 12bet

TP-47 - KPV 29 21 50
o/u 2.5: 64 36

So yeah, disregard what I said on Wednesday, TP-47 just plain sucks right now. However, they did change their coach so it's interesting to see how that will turn out. The 1,70 that is given for the away team at the moment is just too low for me personally, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a chance to see if TP-47 continues their poor form.

FC YPA - FC Santa Claus 38 21 41
o/u 2.5: 68 32

YPA suffered yet another key player loss when Pejic picked up an injury, which means almost half of their usual starting line-up is now injured. They did get a couple of fringe players from SJK on loan, but looking at the overall picture I'm still rating Santa Claus to be a much better team than YPA. Santa did continue their recent spell of high-scoring games last week (I don't know what the heck was the deal with the huge loss though), but YPA looks to be quite opposite of that, so at least at the moment the over doesn't look as interesting as it could be.

GBK - Warkaus JK 58 19 23
o/u 2.5: 73 27

Warkaus managed to win PS Kemi last week, but according to the reports it was a very lucky win so I'm mostly going with the same estimation here, as in just replacing Kemi with GBK and flipping the home advantage. GBK had again one of those crazy games last week, and if unless Warkaus manages to transfer their habit of over-destroying 2-0 wins to away games then I'm eagerly taking the over again. GBK should be at full strength, no idea about Warkaus.

From Ykkönen SJK would be my choice too, as Oulu football is living its Dark Ages at the moment.

FIN Saturday June 16thodds Veikkausliiga and Ykkönen


TimeEVENTFT. HDPFT. O/UFT. 1X21H. HDP1H. O/U1H. 1X2
FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGARefresh
LIVE11:30PM
Haka
Vaasa VPS
Draw
0
2-2.5
u
0
1.0
u
More+9
LIVE11:30PM
Haka
Vaasa VPS

0-0.5
2.5
u



0-0.5
0.5-1
u


LIVE11:30PM
Honka Espoo
Inter Turku
Draw

0-0.5
2.5
u
0
1.0
u
More+9
LIVE11:30PM
Honka Espoo
Inter Turku
0
2-2.5
u



0-0.5
0.5-1
u


LIVE11:30PM
JJK Jyvaskyla
HJK Helsinki
Draw

0.5
2.5-3
u

0-0.5
1-1.5
u
More+10
LIVE11:30PM
JJK Jyvaskyla
HJK Helsinki

0.5-1
3.0
u



0.5
1.0
u


LIVE11:30PM
TPS Turku
Jaro
Draw
1.0
2.5-3
u
0.5
1.0
u
More+10
LIVE11:30PM
TPS Turku
Jaro
1-1.5
2.5
u


0-0.5
1-1.5
u


FINLAND YKKONENRefresh
LIVE09:00PM
JIPPO
Hameenlinna
Draw
0.5
2-2.5
u
0-0.5
1.0
u
More+3
LIVE10:00PM
PK-35 Vantaa
KooTeePee
Draw
0.5-1
2-2.5
u
0.5
1.0
u
More+3
LIVE10:00PM
AC Oulu
Seinajoen JK
Draw
0-0.5
2.5
u
0
1.0
u