Ykkönen and Kakkonen - What's left of interest

Ykkönen and Kakkonen final round to take place on Saturday 4 October. 

Ykkönen (16.00): KTP-JIPPO; Ilves-Viikingit; HIFK-Jazz; JJK-Oulu; Haka-PK35
Kakkonen (14.00): GrIFK-SoVo; SalPa-Klubi04; EIF-Espoo; Pallohonka-BK46; KäPa-Gnistan; Lahti2-Myllypuro; MP-JäPS; PKKU-Kultsu; Futura-KuFu; Viikkarit-Atlantis; VIFK-Sporting; Hämeenlinna-TPV; Kerho07-ÅIFK; Kissat-Iirot; Masku-Närpes; OPS-PK37; GBK-JBK; YPA-Kemi; Kajaani-OLS; TP47-KPV

In Ykkönen Jazz (25p) confirmed their place on Ykkönen for the next season yesterday while JIPPO (19p) will be relegated with Viikingit (6p). On the other hand, KTP (49p, goals +24) is very close to screw up big time. They could've confirmed promotion to Veikkausliiga good time ago, but instead they've lost three games in a row and collected only 7 points from the last 8 matches. They still have an easy task ahead as they face JIPPO home on the last round and with a win they'll confirm promotion. JIPPO is currently the second weakest team in Ykkönen (arguable even weaker than Viikingit and thus the weakest) and they have nothing to play for. HIFK (47p +31) collides with Jazz at home and PK35 (46p +18) has Haka away. Also second place might bring a promotion if one of the Veikkausliiga teams will not be granted league licence for 2015. If several clubs would not be granted licence, the next one in line after Ykkönen 2nd would be relegated Veikkausliiga team (very likely TPS) followed with Ykkönen 3rd. With Honka there's a reasonable high probability for that happening and MyPa has also reported bad financial problems. I said "might bring promotion" as big shots in cabinets have left another option for themselves and may choose not to promote any team but to have less than 12 teams in Veikkausliiga next season. Probability for that option to take place is greater if the league licence will be rejected close to the new season, i.e. in March. 

All Kakkonen group winners and thus teams that will play two-legged promotion play-offs on 12 and 18 October have been known for some time now (Atlantis-EIF; Kemi-VIFK). Winners of both pairs will earn a spot to Ykkönen for 2015. It should be noted that if one or more clubs will be denied Veikkausliiga licence for 2015, that will also affect Kakkonen as extra spot to Ykkönen might open. That would go to a team that lost promotion play-off and collected the most points (followed by goal difference) during regular season. With one round to go situation is following: Atlantis 62p +43; Kemi 62p +41; EIF 62p +32 and; VIFK 53p +23.  Also most of the relegated teams have been decided before the final round. Espoo, SoVo (Kakkonen Southern), Sporting, Hämeenlinna (Kakkonen Western), OLS, PK37, JBK (Kakkonen Northern) and Viikkarit (Kakkonen Eastern). There's only one undecided relegation spot left in Kakkonen Itäinen. It's going to be either KuFu (26 games, 30p -24), Kultsu (26games, 31p -18) or Lahti2 (25 games, 31p +0). Lahti2 plays today against Atlantis away and on Saturday home against Myllypuro; KuFu has an away match against Futura and; Kultsu plays away against PKKU. At this point it must be noted that it's more of a rule that there will be cabinet decisions regarding Kakkonen spots. Winners of Kolmonen might reject promotion or other non-relegated Kakkonen teams might be forced to retreat their spot. Also if a Veikkausliiga team will be denied a league licence that might open extra spot in Kakkonen. Rules regarding who would be granted Kakkonen spot in that case are extremely unclear and open for different interpretations. Often one of the relegated teams have been given one of those extra spots. 

Antti / akaa89.blogabet.com/

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.9

KPV - OPS 48 22 30
o/u 2.5: 60 40

KPV did beat PK-37 convincingly few weeks ago but otherwise their performances have been pretty anemic. OPS' situation is a little bit better, after their key Brazilians departed they managed to win two games and caused some trouble for PS Kemi (at least numerically). Despite what their report says, OPS was very unlucky to not grab at least a draw against JBK last week as JBK was very lethal in their finishing while OPS squandered numerous excellent chances. However, even when taking into account the acceptable form of OPS there's not enough value in +0,5 to make it interesting (a very definite lean still). After all, there's quite many players in their line-up that are mostly just Kolmonen players. Over looks again interesting, neither team has been that goal rich if we look at the whole season, but lately both have looked much more over-like in terms of their performances and results.

KPV - OPS O2.75 56% 1,94 4/10 188Bet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.9

OLS - GBK 24 20 56
o/u 2.5: 65 35

A very speedy preview for this friday night lights game, which in all likelihood will be played in pretty awful conditions. Two motivationless teams and it's tough to find any value on the handicap. GBK is naturally the better team but I'm not too comfortable with the -0,75 line. However, I'll be on the lookout for anything interesting in the live. Over is a different story, both teams have reached three goals regularly and I wouldn't expect either team to be too concerned with defending.

OLS - GBK O2.75 61% 1,73 5/10 Sbobet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 21.9

PK-37 - OLS 39 23 38
o/u 2.5: 62 38

OLS has kept the numbers respectable most of the time while PK-37 has been getting blown out much more often so in that sense it's not that strange to see the odds so even. Even so, I just can't bring myself to think OLS as favorites so the handicap shall remain untouched. Over is a different story though, no stakes in this game and there have been enough goals in the last few games of these teams that it should be worth a try.

OPS - JBK 50 22 28
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Massive game for JBK, OPS could practically secure a top-5 position and an extra home game for next if they win. For a team in constant turmoil and ever dwindling squad OPS results have been pretty good lately. If none of the remaining key players have not left I'd still rate them as better team than JBK, who while having a few impressive results of their own lately are still a pretty limited team. Total odds are really lousy for the over so no interest there.

PK-37 - OLS O2.75 58% 1,88 4/10 Sbobet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.9

KPV - PS Kemi 13 17 70
o/u 2.5: 63 37

KPV's last game was just as bad as the result looks. Bottom dweller OLS did not have an excellent game but that was still enough to beat KPV who looked pretty uninspired. That said, I doubt KPV can play any worse and they should be more fired up for this match but as it remains there's no way I'd get involved with them. PS Kemi annoyingly won only by one goal last week but the win nevertheless was yet again a deserved one. They're at full strength and there's not much you can criticize on their recent form. The odds at asian bookmakers however are a joke so if you want to bet on Kemi it's best to look at the european bookies (1,45 to 1,50 available). At hunch level I can't see anything other than an away win, in totals over at 1,70 could be worth a try but again the asian odds are much lower.

AC Kajaani - GBK 62 20 18
o/u 2.5: 57 43

Jarmo Korhonen always finds a way to ruin the entertainment levels, this time it was a draw against YPA last week which all but assured that Kemi will take the play-off spot. But back to this game again, despite not playing that good lately Kajaani still remains a very tough team to beat and they should be a pretty big favorite purely by the sheer quality they possess in their squad. However, the times they have actually won by more than a one goal can be counted by one one hand so because the line is -1/+1 and as GBK is not playing too badly lately my hunch recommendation would definitely be towards visitors.

TP-47 - FC YPA 21 21 58
o/u 2.5: 58 42

A do or die game for YPA and I wouldn't be too surprised to see them stumble here. While TP-47 has been a pesky opponent most of the season (in the start of the season they didn't many concrete results of that) YPA's long streak of wins is respectable enough that they're a hefty favorites even at away field. But in betting terms the -0,75 has that extra -0,25 which means no interest in the visitors, YPA's recent OLS game did not leave an good impression as they didn't create that many chances and actually employed heavy timewasting tactics in the second half. Even more so than last week YPA will have to go for a win so that urgency could help with the total but I'm personally skipping that also. All in all the odds are pretty spot on today, GBK +1, PS Kemi straight win and overs for YPA and Kemi would be my hunch choices.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 14.9

OLS - KPV 23 21 56
o/u 2.5: 58 42

Two teams with no motivation, unless you count one extra home game for KPV as an incentive. No solid ideas floating around my head, but I'd lean strongly towards KPV as the line is "only" -0,75 so if OLS again managed to keep it respectable it would be a half-win at least. Last week the home team managed to give some trouble for YPA so and KPV's form has been pretty erratic lately so the first home win for OLS would not sound totally impossible, but as said week from week OLS always manages to find a way to lose. In any case, the game's live on B365 so maybe there's something interesting there (live updates in www.kpv.fi and my twitter account). Despite the low total line I'm not interested in the over for obvious reasons.

GBK - TP-47 48 22 30
o/u 2.5: 58 42

Very evenly matched teams and while I rate GBK to be slightly better there's not enough value in -0,25 that it would be worth the bother. Nothing interesting in the total either.

PS Kemi - OPS 76 14 10
o/u 2.5: 66 34

OPS has been Kemi's boogeyman this year but those games were played in Oulu, now Kemi will get to play in their home field where they've again won almost all of their games (only the ACK game remains as a sore spot, and even then injuries were a big part of the loss). This still won't be easy for Kemi though, even with the defections OPS still possesses many talented and experienced players, and the last three games have showed that they've definitely not given up.

FC YPA - AC Kajaani 55 22 23
o/u 2.5: 56 44

You could argue that AC Kajaani has better players than YPA so in that light -0,75 is awful lot to pay for purely on motivational advantage. There is also the form though, YPA has been going from win to win (but their performance was not that good against OLS) while AC Kajaani has struggled against all kinds of teams. AC Kajaani has had a few overs lately which was almost unheard of in the midsummer, and as YPA must look for a win I was keenly eyeing the over. However, the asian odds don't offer any value so you'd have to use the european bookies.

PS Kemi - OPS -1,5 54% 1,98 4/10 Sbobet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 13.9

JBK - PK-37 58 20 22
o/u 2.5: 63 37

JBK has been quite overrated in these games against lesser opposition and it's again the case as the line is -0,75. They've probably been slightly more impressive in terms of being able to challenge stronger teams but the fact remains that only two points separate these teams. However, that does not really make PK-37 any more interesting. They have some player issues and they've been pretty awful at away games not to mention that their form is more of the same level too. I'll take a chance with the over though, both desperately need to win because the third worst team in Kakkonen resides in the Southern group, and they have 22 points so neither team won't do much with a draw.

JBK - PK-37 O2.75 59% 1,78 4/10 Sbobet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 7.9

Previews at 17:30 local time, KPV starts earlier but nothing of interest there in betting sense (maybe over, because PK-37 has been pretty broken defensively lately and they themselves desperately need points).

KPV - PK-37 67 18 15
o/u 2.5: 62 38

OLS - FC YPA 7 13 80
o/u 2.5: 60 40

Table tells enough about the motivation here, OLS is practically relegated while YPA is desperately chasing Kemi. OLS season has been a neverending nightmare and I can't say I expect this game to be any different. They've remained competitive in terms of not being blown out that often but YPA is at full strength and in such a great form lately especially defensively that seeing the absolutely awful OLS offense score would be a huge surprise. Just like yesterday I have some reservations about a one goal win for YPA as OLS certainly likes their one goal losses, so a correct score of 0-1 could worth a try if you're going for all-inclusive approach. OLS scoring troubles are self-explanatory if you look at the table so I'm not even remotely interested in over 3.25 as it in all likelihood means YPA team total at 3.25.

AC Kajaani - TP-47 61 22 17
o/u 2.5: 48 52

AC Kajaani has really fallen apart after it became evident that they won't be able to catch PS Kemi. That said, they still possess a ridiculously talented squad for this level in addition to a great coach so I'm not particularly excited about TP-47 +0,75 neither on hunch nor hat estimation levels. TP-47 had a great stretch of games in mid July to mid August where they pulled themselves out of the relegation battle. Since then they've had two little bit weaker games, but it has to be said OPS away from home and PS Kemi are probably the toughest games imaginable. The disgustingly defensive-orientated TP-47 that was seen against OPS is still fresh in mind so I'm willing to try under today considering the opponent is AC Kajaani, who love their low-scoring games. And even outside that OPS match, TP-47 has been a pretty low-scoring team too.

AC Kajaani - TP-47 U2.5 52% 2,04 2/10 Sbobet
OLS - FC YPA -1,5 2 58% 1,86 5/10 188Bet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 6.9

GBK - OPS 52 21 27
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Had to skip Wednesday's GBK game as I couldn't have resisted the home team then, and as it turns out they did play good but luck, motivation or similar things made YPA the winner so nothing of interest was lost there. Hunch is heavily towards GBK, they probably possess a slightly better squad than OPS after the away team's cost cutting measures were implemented and OPS has had some disgustingly bad away performances apart from one stretch in July. However, OPS does still have plenty of quality left especially in their defense so I would have hoped for much better odds for GBK than the lousy ~1,85 so I'm going to have to skip the handicap.

PS Kemi - JBK 85 10 5
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Both teams with big stakes in this game so motivation won't be an issue. PS Kemi has been pretty much automatic against these weaker teams and I can't see anything other than that today either. JBK has still continued to be competitive such as beating AC Kajaani (though they're really out of form right now) and holding YPA level until the last ten minutes, and as they rarely get blown out one goal win is certainly something that I'm afraid of. However, PS Kemi has shown impressive form and more importantly goalscoring power after the arrival of Jovovic, so the combination of traditionally the best home team (and probably the overall best too) playing against the third or second worst team is enough for me as the handicap is not that high at -1,75.

PS Kemi - JBK -1,75 1 62% 1,81 6/10 188Bet

FIN U19 vs Greece

Gk

Lauri Jylhä FC Honka 

Miikka Mujunen FC Lahti

 

Df

Alex Antikainen HJK

Sebastian Dolivo HJK

Niklas Friberg ÅIFK

Alex Lehtinen HJK

Simo Majander Sudet

Juho Pirttijoki FC Haka

 

Mf

Niklas Blomqvist TPS

Fredrik Lassas HJK

Tuomas Lähdesmäki SJK

Anselmi Nurmela AC Oulu

Waltteri Peltola TPS

Petteri Pietola HJK

 

Str

Elias Ahde SJK

Saku Savolainen KuPS

Kevin Larsson FF Jaro
Ilmari Ylönen KäPa 

As usual, HJK here in general means Klubi04 and Honka is Pallohonka, TPS players come from Åbo IFK.