Have taken so far early Egypt - 0,25 @ 2.23, and according to the drift it looks like a solid bet, which naturally have very little to do with possibly winning the bet.
Mixed feelings about the Nigeria vs Zambia encounter and I will leave any decisions after the kick-off.
EDIT: The best Cameroon performance so far and a loss of half a stake. Was really expecting more defensive errors from them and earlier. Did not see that bad ref mistake coming where the non-goal was rewarded.
Strange and unacceptable.
25.1.2010
Ivory Coast on a way home
All credit to Algeria who did well, but it occurred to me that there is a lot of work to do among the Africans to make them really understand the European concept of time. In some special occasions, like in a football match, there is only and exactly a given amout of it.
" A watch? Wise instrument bwana, creating you new time every second!
" A watch? Wise instrument bwana, creating you new time every second!
23.1.2010
No weekend shortlist this weekend
Even the list of actual bets became long, way too long even for my own liking, but hell, what can you do if they appear to be value? You probably end up dropping the winners and choosing only the losers.
There was a lot of action last night, Cups are exciting to watch, usually a bit more challenging to analyse.
I took Lille for example - in running as a matter of fact - and the result is here.
There was a lot of action last night, Cups are exciting to watch, usually a bit more challenging to analyse.
I took Lille for example - in running as a matter of fact - and the result is here.
21.1.2010
Coldness trying to sabotage my JJK bet?
Ironic.
So far the worst pricing error made by a bookie this season, and they are about to be saved by the arctic weather. EDIT: Postponed to 26th January. **** all!
Took Haka - JJK ------> JJK + 1.25 @ 1.80 the other day, and yes, the price is now about the same, only the handicap has dropped to + 0,75.
And it is still way too high.
*Sigh*
These babies do not appear every day you know?
So far the worst pricing error made by a bookie this season, and they are about to be saved by the arctic weather. EDIT: Postponed to 26th January. **** all!
Took Haka - JJK ------> JJK + 1.25 @ 1.80 the other day, and yes, the price is now about the same, only the handicap has dropped to + 0,75.
And it is still way too high.
*Sigh*
These babies do not appear every day you know?
20.1.2010
Short list for European picks 20th Jan 2010
These are the ones I am most interested so far for tonight, but need more info, odds moves or live observations before doing anything. Spurs + 0,25 I have taken, and Nigeria -1.5 but the odds have risen and you get -1.25 at the same price now. The African markets have behaved funnily from the start.
Edit: not much left of these, took Monaco and Auxerre with + handicaps though. Kortrijk is another prospect in the Belgian Cup.
Genoa - 0,5 @ 2.13
Bologna - 0,25 @ 2.13
Bordeaux - 1 @ 1.94 --> 2.02 now, i will give this a chance in running
Lens -0,25 @ 2,03
Lyon - 0,25 @ 1.91
They are all favourites, and it gives me more time to think about this, because even if they drop now a bit before kick - off they will start rising again, and I get more information from the live match. There is more hurry with the + handicaps ;) On the other hand, the prices of favourites usually drop a bit towards as the kick-off gets closer, that is a good example of (human) bettor behaviour.
Edit: not much left of these, took Monaco and Auxerre with + handicaps though. Kortrijk is another prospect in the Belgian Cup.
Bordeaux - 1 @ 1.94 --> 2.02 now, i will give this a chance in running
They are all favourites, and it gives me more time to think about this, because even if they drop now a bit before kick - off they will start rising again, and I get more information from the live match. There is more hurry with the + handicaps ;) On the other hand, the prices of favourites usually drop a bit towards as the kick-off gets closer, that is a good example of (human) bettor behaviour.
19.1.2010
Finland league cup kicks off 22th January with 2 exciting matches
Which, to be honest, is very good news. Not that I do not like European football because I love it, but to make a profit out of it requires a lot more hard work (if you can call watching football on telly as hard work, well there is some trading involved) than my own leagues. There is also a need to use secondary sources which is not my preferred style of doing things.
All the information and knowlegde about Finnish football is already cumulated in my database and in my head.
Haka will host JJK on Friday at 12.30 unless it gets too cold (-10 forecasted which would be acceptable) as the match is scheduled to take place outdoors, and last season´s runner-up FC Honka welcome third placed TPS at Esport Areena, indoors, at 14.00 CET.
I have my estimations more or less ready, but need to get my bets in first to be able to discuss this any further. The markets at smaller leagues are way too vulnerable and the margins too small and there is really no room for spoiling the advantage of getting your hands into fresh early asian prices!.
The last weekend of January I am heading to a traditional cup competition at Lahti, named as Uusi Lahti Cup. There will be 4 matches both Friday and Saturday and two on Sunday. It helps a lot in trying to identify some new players for the participating clubs. HJK, Tamu, KuPs, Haka, Lahti, PoPa, City Stars and JK Viljandi Tulevik.
Odds for League Cup on Friday, I think. Fixtures for this competition here.
EDIT: Surpisingly the early odds came today to Sbobet, unfortunately only with the following lines which I happily took already, but with limits and the odds dropped right away.
Honka did sell their playmaker and most influential player Joel Perovuo to Djurgården and also Rasmus Schuller will be out for several weeks, but there is a lot of depth in the squad still, and at home at Esport they have been almost invincible year after year. TPS have lost all of their midfield including best players Wayne Brown and Kasper Hämäläinen, not to mention the talismanic and very peculiar manager Pasi Rautiainen and should be suffering again at Espoo. Last time around they lost 4-0 if my memory serves me right, but it could had gone a lot worse.
Honka - 0,25 @ 1.77
is a steal, but the JJK odds - and handicaps - are the ones which will go down soon! Pure madness from our Asian friends and obviously estimated directly from the final table of 2009. JJK 2010 is the better team of these two!
JJK + 1,25 @ 1.80
Edit2: JJK + 1 @ 1.98 now. Very much worth taking!
Edit3: they are learning it the hard way, JJK + 1 now 1.63.
Edit4: The Haka match is postponed and bookies got help from the sky. The price for JJK + 0,75 is now 1.66, but like I said the game is off.
No streams available for these but they will be open for livebetting. However, as I probably mentioned before or at least Nordic Football News have, most Veikkausliiga matches this season will be televised.
All the information and knowlegde about Finnish football is already cumulated in my database and in my head.
Haka will host JJK on Friday at 12.30 unless it gets too cold (-10 forecasted which would be acceptable) as the match is scheduled to take place outdoors, and last season´s runner-up FC Honka welcome third placed TPS at Esport Areena, indoors, at 14.00 CET.
I have my estimations more or less ready, but need to get my bets in first to be able to discuss this any further. The markets at smaller leagues are way too vulnerable and the margins too small and there is really no room for spoiling the advantage of getting your hands into fresh early asian prices!.
The last weekend of January I am heading to a traditional cup competition at Lahti, named as Uusi Lahti Cup. There will be 4 matches both Friday and Saturday and two on Sunday. It helps a lot in trying to identify some new players for the participating clubs. HJK, Tamu, KuPs, Haka, Lahti, PoPa, City Stars and JK Viljandi Tulevik.
Odds for League Cup on Friday, I think. Fixtures for this competition here.
EDIT: Surpisingly the early odds came today to Sbobet, unfortunately only with the following lines which I happily took already, but with limits and the odds dropped right away.
Honka did sell their playmaker and most influential player Joel Perovuo to Djurgården and also Rasmus Schuller will be out for several weeks, but there is a lot of depth in the squad still, and at home at Esport they have been almost invincible year after year. TPS have lost all of their midfield including best players Wayne Brown and Kasper Hämäläinen, not to mention the talismanic and very peculiar manager Pasi Rautiainen and should be suffering again at Espoo. Last time around they lost 4-0 if my memory serves me right, but it could had gone a lot worse.
Honka - 0,25 @ 1.77
is a steal, but the JJK odds - and handicaps - are the ones which will go down soon! Pure madness from our Asian friends and obviously estimated directly from the final table of 2009. JJK 2010 is the better team of these two!
JJK + 1,25 @ 1.80
Edit2: JJK + 1 @ 1.98 now. Very much worth taking!
Edit3: they are learning it the hard way, JJK + 1 now 1.63.
Edit4: The Haka match is postponed and bookies got help from the sky. The price for JJK + 0,75 is now 1.66, but like I said the game is off.
No streams available for these but they will be open for livebetting. However, as I probably mentioned before or at least Nordic Football News have, most Veikkausliiga matches this season will be televised.
16.1.2010
Pre-season in Finland finally kicking-off!
You all are obviously aware that the League Cup starts 22nd January with all the excitement and glory, but fortunately that is not all! The friendly season is on at last, and teams from all top leagues are busy filling their training programs with friendlies - mostly to be played indoors.
Last night two Veikkausliiga teams started 2010 with following results;
PoPa - TPS 2-4 (Wusu 3 goals?!) report
PK35-MyPa 0-1 (Kurittu) report
To my big surprise also PK35 match was also in offer at asian bookies. Usually they do not like the matches where full 90 minutes is not played; because of training schedules most indoor matches have to be finished within a period of 90 minutes, including ht break - and the actual playing time is something like 2 * 42 minutes...
That was a reality check for you, this is not Anfield.
Last night two Veikkausliiga teams started 2010 with following results;
PoPa - TPS 2-4 (Wusu 3 goals?!) report
PK35-MyPa 0-1 (Kurittu) report
To my big surprise also PK35 match was also in offer at asian bookies. Usually they do not like the matches where full 90 minutes is not played; because of training schedules most indoor matches have to be finished within a period of 90 minutes, including ht break - and the actual playing time is something like 2 * 42 minutes...
That was a reality check for you, this is not Anfield.
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