Finland League Cup 28th Feb AC Oulu - KuPS

AC Oulu have to big surprise won all of their three league cup matches and can make some experiments in todays match against so far winless KuPS. No injury worries for Oulu, but some young players will get their chance in the starting line-up.

KuPS are a better team than the results suggest. They are missing gk Mikko Vilmunen today and Ilja Venäläinen and Samuli Kaivonurmi are doubtful. If they are missing it would be a blow for the Kuopio side, but in my papers KuPS are a better team than Oulu and the asian odds reflect too heavily the results of this unimportant competition. Vilmunen is easily replaced by Joonas Pöntinen and it does not weaken the side a bit.

Edit: Venäläinen plays and Oulu are benching some normal starters as promised. Took KuPS + 0,5 @ 2.17 very happily. KuPS with only 3 subs though.

Asian handicap price limits

Oulu -0.5	:	KuPS +0.5	2.22 - 1.82
Oulu 0 & -0.5	:	KuPS 0 & +0.5	1.80 - 2.25
Oulu 0	:	KuPS 0	1.51 - 2.96

Finland League Cup 28th Feb MyPa - MIFK

MyPa have lost both matches in this competition so far, without scoring. To be honest there was never too much to be expected from their travels to Inter (1-0) and HJK (2-0), but naturally not scoring is a cause for some embarrasment. MyPa coach Janne Lindberg who has never been too keen to talk to media did not want to spesify their injury situation, but probably at least striker Pele Koljonen is still sidelined. MyPa also lost a court case regarding unlawful firing of their previous coach Janne Hyppönen and need to pay a compensation of 54 000 euros, which is in this league about the average salary of player.

IFK Mariehamn won TPS 1-0, drew with Honka 1-1 and lost away at HJK 2-0, but are missing a lot of players at the moment and also their motivation for competition remains questionable.  Wilhelm Ingves, Sasha Anttilainen, Simon Enqvist and Jimmy Sundman are injured. Johan Carlsson is suspended.  Patrik Rikama and Johannes Nordström are doubtful.


Both teams are toothless in front of the goal on their best day, and I can not see any reason why this would a particularly good for either of them. Match is played outdoors and it  is definitely one of the matches I would not be rushing to see. IFK class is slightly higher, but home advantage and motivation turn things around. 0-0.


Edit: Lindberg was talking bs as usual, and MyPa doubtfuls are all playing. IFK travel with a very weak bench, but the starting eleven is good quality and I am especially pleased to see Långbacka back between the posts. IFK can not afford injuries though, 4 players on the bench, one of them is gk and another one an academy player. Price limits up soon, but I have already taken under 2.25 @ 1.95

MyPa -0.5	:	IFK +0.5	2.94 - 1.52
MyPa 0 & -0.5	:	IFK 0 & +0.5	2.34 - 1.75
MyPa 0	:	IFK 0	1.94 - 2.06
MyPa 0 & +0.5	:	IFK 0 & -0.5	1.67 - 2.48
MyPa +0.5	:	IFK -0.5	1.47 - 3.13

Finland League Cup 28th Feb FF Jaro - VPS

A Pohjanmaa derby played indoors. Jaro are still missing a lot of players, but that has been the case in all the matches so far in the competition and yet they have managed to win 2 out 3 matches. Maksim Vasiljev is suspended, and the injury list is long;  Heikki Aho, Papa Niang, Petter Meyer and Björn-Erik Sundqvist.  Kåre Björkstrand and Marco Matrone are doubtful.

Jaro have weakened a lot materialwise since last season, but the manager Alexei Eremenko Sr. is doing a good job with the players available, and in my opinion Jaro are far from certain to get relegated which seems to be the public opinion.

From the VPS side Valtter Laaksonen, Tony Björk, Jan Berg, Tero Koskela, Jyrki Saranpää and Brian Pope are injured.  Jani Tanska is suspended.

Even match where it is more about who is the regional champion than about the points.

Asian price limits

Jaro -0.5	:	VPS +0.5	2.86 - 1.54
Jaro 0 & -0.5	:	VPS 0 & +0.5	2.31 - 1.76
Jaro 0	:	VPS 0	1.94 - 2.06
Jaro 0 & +0.5	:	VPS 0 & -0.5	1.69 - 2.45
Jaro +0.5	:	VPS -0.5	1.49 - 3.03

Finland League Cup 27th Feb 2010

Edit: Market move info. TPS -1.25 opened at about 2, but has now dropped to 1.76, which means that the markets have corrected the starting prices by one handicap. I can understand it and expected it, but do see it as overreacting. TPS could win this by four goals easily if they start the match with the right foot, but they might as well struggle and Lahti is always dangerous in the attack and a narrow win like 2-1 is as much possible. This is after all only a friendly at the best training season. And that would see all the bets - TPS -1,25, TPS -1,5 and over 3 goals - favoured by the punters to go in the drain or be void. My numbers suggest at the moment a bet for the Lahti outfit but I will let this opportunity to pass and wait for live info.


A similar drop has occurred at HJK - Inter Turku, HJK -1 from 2.04 to 1.80, but that is a much more reasoned  move and definitely into the right direction because of the serious problems in the Inter camp described below. I took HJK -1 @ 2.04 myself and perhaps I will take another bet live, this is the match where I am going to.



TPS - FC Lahti
The match will be played outdoors which lowers the goal expectactions a bit, and the big handicaps as well. Lahti defence still in shambles however and they were lucky to escape from Honka last week by losing only 4-1. I have no desire to wait for the asian bookies to open this match for the whole day, but probably place a live bet later if my agent at the pitch so recommends.

TPS -1.25  @ 2.15     - FC Lahti + 1,25 @ 1.87
TPS - 1      @ 1.89     - FC Lahti +1       @2.12
TPS - 0,75 @ 1.71    - FC Lahti + 0,75 @ 2.40
TPS - 0,5   @ 1.56    - FC Lahti+ 0,5   @ 2.78

HJK - Inter

Asian price limits - updated 10.30 CET
HJK -1.25  @ 2.23   - Inter + 1,25 @ 1.81
HJK - 1      @ 1.94     - Inter +1       @2.06
HJK - 0,75 @ 1.73    - Inter + 0,75 @ 2.37
HJK - 0,5   @ 1.56    - Inter + 0,5   @ 2.78

These are not the limits we are used to see in this top clash, but Inter are suffering hugely with injuries. Both goalies and centerbacks are out, all in all total of nine Inter players will miss this match, 8 of them are worth a place in the starting line-up!

David Monsalve, Patrick Bantamoi, Ari Nyman, Kennedy Nwanganga, Joni Aho, Timo Furuholm, Sami Sanevuori, Jan-Erik Heljander,  Daniel Antunez.

Inter have some test players from lower european leagues today- Selim Kaabi and Mahdi Tagawa - but in my eyes this is the worst Inter Turku line-up there has been in years.


 If HJK had been any sharper against MyPa and if there not was also 2 test players - Janne Hietanen in defence and Mohamed El Abed in attack - in the home side I would suggest HJK even more strongly, but the performance last time around was far from sharp, there is no need to win and the match is played indoors during the training season which make me to think back and keep the head cool.

Finland League Cup home advantage

I see that also Veikkausliiga.com decided to publish this topic as breaking news, so why not discuss it shortly.

So far 19 matches played - 15 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. It would be a shocking result if

a) the sample was a lot bigger
b) the fixtures had been different. Now we have had home favourite in almost every single match.

There are a couple of factors that however should be noted. Those 2 away wins were both taken at outdoor matches (5 played so far), which means that out of 14 matches played indoors all have been winless for the away teams.

If we look at this closer there are also these things to be considered.  

Out of 14 indoor matches 8 have been hosted by Honka, HJK or IFK Mariehamn. Teams that very rarely lose either home or away, and they have played only a few away matches so far, while HJK won IFK and Honka drew with IFK and HJK.

The remaining 6 matches feature Jaro, AC Oulu and VPS all twice at home. 6-0-0 stats, which is very impressive indeed. And with a closer look of the away teams we have got Haka and KuPS twice, Jaro and TamU once each. No world-beaters away, are they? TamU losing 1-0 at VPS was a bit of a surprise to me, but even then TamU were only a 45 % favourite to win and 1X was the more likely outcome.

The pitch conditions, lightning and travel do favour the home teams slightly, but on a negative side there is no home support in the indoor arenas as they are built for training purposes only and the capacity for public is very low. However, I am ready to agree that the home advantage is bigger than during the normal season played outdoors, but how much bigger will remain a mystery. I am absolutely certain though because this sample is so small it is mostly explained by variance. Let us see what happens next weekend in the League Cup!

Finland League Cup this week 26-27th Feb 2010

There will six matches next weekend on Friday and Saturday, and I will come up with estimations and price limits later this week. Meanwhile I need to get Ykkönen and Kakkonen stats and updates in the squads in order and will be relatively quiet this week. We still have home favourites for every game, except Haka - TamU, well, perhaps VPS will also be the fav at the bookies.

Edit: The european bookies have reacted quite strongly in the league cup results, and there is no reason to back HJK for example.  Neither TPS. Could be that there is not much worth of anything this weekend, I am glad I got my Atlantis - Kalju bet in on time, one of the easiest wins for a long time with Kalju -0,25 @ 1.87, FT was staggering 1-8 and that is pretty much correct reflection of the performances. Blogger has been out of reach all day, hope it was only temporary.

26.2.2010	TPS	- FC Lahti	15:00	Yläkenttä / Kupittaa 5
	HJK	- FC Inter	17:00	Tali
27.2.2010	Haka	- TamU	13:30	Valkeakoski Sahara
	MYPA	- IFK Mariehamn	14:00	Lehtomäki (Kouvola)
	AC Oulu	- KuPS	14:15	Arina Areena
	FF Jaro	- VPS	16:30	Tellushalli

Sunday - No matches, no updates

There are now less than 2 months until the season kicks-off, and days off will be more scarce. I will enjoy this one by staying away from the computer. Have a nice day all!

Several of my readers have sent me questions to be answered, but I will take a closer look at them next week and write up a q´s and a´s story.

If you have something in mind feel free to drop me a line to puntteri@gmail.com.