Not exactly the score I had in mind.
14.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 14.7
TP-47 - Tervari O3.75 54% 1,92 3/10 12Bet
Kerho 07 - GBK +0,25 2 59% 1,91 4/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - GBK O3.25 59% 1,86 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA O3.25 59% 1,84 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA 18 17 65
o/u 2.5: 73 27
It's hard to get an accurate description from the Kokkola derby, but it seems like the game was quite even so KPV can count themselves slightly unlucky to have lost that match. As you can see from their results lately KPV is now a completely different team compared to first 1/3 of the season. This game, however, is on a whole different level in terms of challenge as YPA is far ahead of GBK, PK-37, Kerho 07 and the Oulu minnows. Or to be precise, YPA should be far ahead of those five since lately YPA has hit some bumps on their road to Ykkönen. If the homegrown rule looks to have started the self-destruction in SJK, the same can be said for YPA and their red cards. In total, they are missing two regular starters and two part-time starters, and with a painfully thin squad they really can't afford losing too many players so I've lowered their estimation quite a bit. Normally I'd expect YPA to have no trouble with KPV as the class difference is huge, but due to the uncertain situation with YPA, the 1x2 and handicap markets are in my opinion basically untouchable. The same sentiment mostly applies to the total too, in ordinary circumstances I'd expect YPA's excellent attack to break down KPV, who are probably going to approach this match very defensively just like they did in the last h2h match. YPA's defense did break down against PK-37 when Morrison-Derbyshire was sent off, and KPV is not any worse than PK-37 when it comes to attacking so if YPA decides to continue their screw-ups KPV is more than capable of making some damage.
TP-47 - Tervarit 85 9 6
o/u 2.5: 78 22
The standings describe this match better than any words, but in short anything other than a home win would be a big surprise. TP-47 has played against the top 3 lately so the results don't look so good for them, but assuming their confidence hasn't been hit too much they should destroy Tervarit. TP-47 has been clearly the fourth best team overall, and while Tervarit isn't any worse than ORP they're an abysmal team for this level so the 10th place is quite accurate for them. Line-up roulette continues for the away team, but that probably does not make any difference if the team loses nearly all of their games. TP-47 gets two not so important players back from suspension, one semi-important player was still missing in PS Kemi match. Tervarit away games have usually ended in massacres and it's hard to see this one going any different. TP-47's recent form is the only worrying thing as they've been much more low-scoring than usual, but I'd say this a very different type of game (meaning big class difference) than those four matches before so I'm confident that they'll have a good chance to return to their extremely over-like games. Tervarit scoring is still quite rare and thus I wouldn't be too interested in lines higher than 3.5.
Kerho 07 - GBK 37 20 43
o/u 2.5: 73 27
If KPV-YPA is a nightmare game in a betting sense, this is even more so. There are enough reasons for both teams to be favorites and while I've given GBK the slight nod it could just as well go to Kerho 07. The visitors finally won a game so the coaching change helped a bit, but with a squad list like theirs they should be dominating teams like KPV, not win them barely by one late goal. There's a lot of potential in GBK, even to challenge the top 3 but one single win is not enough to completely overturn the awful form they displayed before that. For the past month and a half results have not gone in Kerho 07's favor, but they have played good enough that I wouldn't be too eager to play GBK. Strangely enough Kerho 07 have looked very poor against mediocre teams such as KPV and PK-37 while the YPA, PS Kemi and last week's VIFK game have been very even. As predicting GBK's real quality is mostly lottery right now, the best option would be probably be to just skip this game entirely. However, due to GBK having a much better team in paper and also because of their much higher ceiling in terms class I likely wouldn't be able to resist GBK level ball if that were available. Palosaari and Aalto did not play with SJK yesterday so they'll probably be with Kerho 07, same goes for Goldberg. Their captain Ylinen will be out for a month, but in Oulu games he did not display anything worthwhile. GBK lost half a dozen players to the Finnish army, though they should have all of their key players available so a couple of youngsters being out should not affect them that much. Total is nearly as tricky as 1x2, GBK was obviously much better last week when they got a clean sheet so the question is will that cancel out the previous two months, where they went through a ridiculous streak of nine O3.5 games in a row. GBK's offense has statistically been quite average, but the scoring streak is still going on and on paper they have at minimum the third best offense in the group. Kerho 07 has been quite steady with the almost all the unders coming from games against under teams (VIFK in May and PK-37 twice), against similar opposition as GBK there's almost always been at least three scored. 3.0 line would be good for at least a medium bet, 3.25 not so much.
Kerho 07 - GBK +0,25 2 59% 1,91 4/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - GBK O3.25 59% 1,86 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA O3.25 59% 1,84 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA 18 17 65
o/u 2.5: 73 27
It's hard to get an accurate description from the Kokkola derby, but it seems like the game was quite even so KPV can count themselves slightly unlucky to have lost that match. As you can see from their results lately KPV is now a completely different team compared to first 1/3 of the season. This game, however, is on a whole different level in terms of challenge as YPA is far ahead of GBK, PK-37, Kerho 07 and the Oulu minnows. Or to be precise, YPA should be far ahead of those five since lately YPA has hit some bumps on their road to Ykkönen. If the homegrown rule looks to have started the self-destruction in SJK, the same can be said for YPA and their red cards. In total, they are missing two regular starters and two part-time starters, and with a painfully thin squad they really can't afford losing too many players so I've lowered their estimation quite a bit. Normally I'd expect YPA to have no trouble with KPV as the class difference is huge, but due to the uncertain situation with YPA, the 1x2 and handicap markets are in my opinion basically untouchable. The same sentiment mostly applies to the total too, in ordinary circumstances I'd expect YPA's excellent attack to break down KPV, who are probably going to approach this match very defensively just like they did in the last h2h match. YPA's defense did break down against PK-37 when Morrison-Derbyshire was sent off, and KPV is not any worse than PK-37 when it comes to attacking so if YPA decides to continue their screw-ups KPV is more than capable of making some damage.
TP-47 - Tervarit 85 9 6
o/u 2.5: 78 22
The standings describe this match better than any words, but in short anything other than a home win would be a big surprise. TP-47 has played against the top 3 lately so the results don't look so good for them, but assuming their confidence hasn't been hit too much they should destroy Tervarit. TP-47 has been clearly the fourth best team overall, and while Tervarit isn't any worse than ORP they're an abysmal team for this level so the 10th place is quite accurate for them. Line-up roulette continues for the away team, but that probably does not make any difference if the team loses nearly all of their games. TP-47 gets two not so important players back from suspension, one semi-important player was still missing in PS Kemi match. Tervarit away games have usually ended in massacres and it's hard to see this one going any different. TP-47's recent form is the only worrying thing as they've been much more low-scoring than usual, but I'd say this a very different type of game (meaning big class difference) than those four matches before so I'm confident that they'll have a good chance to return to their extremely over-like games. Tervarit scoring is still quite rare and thus I wouldn't be too interested in lines higher than 3.5.
Kerho 07 - GBK 37 20 43
o/u 2.5: 73 27
If KPV-YPA is a nightmare game in a betting sense, this is even more so. There are enough reasons for both teams to be favorites and while I've given GBK the slight nod it could just as well go to Kerho 07. The visitors finally won a game so the coaching change helped a bit, but with a squad list like theirs they should be dominating teams like KPV, not win them barely by one late goal. There's a lot of potential in GBK, even to challenge the top 3 but one single win is not enough to completely overturn the awful form they displayed before that. For the past month and a half results have not gone in Kerho 07's favor, but they have played good enough that I wouldn't be too eager to play GBK. Strangely enough Kerho 07 have looked very poor against mediocre teams such as KPV and PK-37 while the YPA, PS Kemi and last week's VIFK game have been very even. As predicting GBK's real quality is mostly lottery right now, the best option would be probably be to just skip this game entirely. However, due to GBK having a much better team in paper and also because of their much higher ceiling in terms class I likely wouldn't be able to resist GBK level ball if that were available. Palosaari and Aalto did not play with SJK yesterday so they'll probably be with Kerho 07, same goes for Goldberg. Their captain Ylinen will be out for a month, but in Oulu games he did not display anything worthwhile. GBK lost half a dozen players to the Finnish army, though they should have all of their key players available so a couple of youngsters being out should not affect them that much. Total is nearly as tricky as 1x2, GBK was obviously much better last week when they got a clean sheet so the question is will that cancel out the previous two months, where they went through a ridiculous streak of nine O3.5 games in a row. GBK's offense has statistically been quite average, but the scoring streak is still going on and on paper they have at minimum the third best offense in the group. Kerho 07 has been quite steady with the almost all the unders coming from games against under teams (VIFK in May and PK-37 twice), against similar opposition as GBK there's almost always been at least three scored. 3.0 line would be good for at least a medium bet, 3.25 not so much.
13.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 13.7
PS Kemi - VIFK -0,5 1 53% 1,96 2,5/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - VIFK O3.25 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
ORP - PK-37 -0,5 2 54% 1,99 4/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - VIFK 53 19 28
o/u 2.5: 72 28
Very equal teams, but as said multiple times before PS Kemi has been excellent at home not only based on the results but also in the way that they seem to play much more aggressively at home than away. Also they do have more individual talent than VIFK so with the coaching being likely quite equal this year I'd be prepared to try -0,5 for small stakes. For the past month and a half both teams have mostly just won so it's difficult to say anything negative about either team or their form. If anything, neither has displayed the same type of dominance as the legendary trio of SJK, OPA and OPS so succeeding in Ykkönen would need plenty of new signings. VIFK does not seem to have any significant injuries. Kemi missed their first choice gk last time but no information on whether he'll return, other than that there doesn't seem to be anybody else missing (e: the gk is still out, they also miss two regular starters from defense/midfield). Last week was disastrous with totals, but assuming that was just derby round jitters or just, you know, one fluke round (after all, no team goes full season with just 5-1 or 2-5 results) then I'd lean fairly hard towards the over in this game. PS Kemi does seem to be prone to occasional bore fests in away games, but at home the last time they had fewer than 3 goals scored was over a year ago. VIFK is currently quite a special case, normally they are the kings of low scoring football but recently it has been quite the opposite. Whether that is just a streak of random results or not I don't know, but there's not a better chance to continue that string of results than visiting Kemi. As this is still a top clash, 3.25 line would be something that I probably wouldn't get too excited with, but if the asians follow Bet365's odds then there's a fairly good chance for 3.0 which would be more than enough.
ORPa - PK-37 26 20 54
o/u 2.5: 63 37
As much as I despise PK-37 and would like to see more Oulu teams play in Kakkonen, the truth is that concerning betting angles there's only one possible choice and it's PK-37. PK-37 finally broke out of their unlucky spell by completely trashing YPA, although the red card obviously played a part in that. At the moment, their form is much better than ORP's, who have been terrible for a long time now. The home side's Tervarit win was the same old for them with even the winning goal coming from a very controversial refereeing decision in an otherwise even game. From the VIFK game onward, PK-37 has been playing good football despite the poor looking results, so even when playing away from home anything above 2,00 would be an instant bet. While I'd still place PK-37's quality at middle table at best, the gap between the current bottom two and the teams above them is just as big as the difference between the top trio and the teams underneath them. ORP did not fare any better offensively against Tervarit, so it's not difficult to expect them to have a hard time scoring against PK-37, who have for the past month played much like they have always played, meaning plenty of low scoring games. Of course some result have been quite misleading but the overall picture is still quite under-like. ORP's important gk still has one game remaining in his suspension (there's also some player movement, impossible to say whether the new players will do anything good for them), but I wouldn't expect them to have too much trouble defensively with PK-37, though the visitors are still the clear favorites today. e: PK-37 does seem to have their top scorer suspended, so not too hot on them anymore.
PS Kemi - VIFK O3.25 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
ORP - PK-37 -0,5 2 54% 1,99 4/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - VIFK 53 19 28
o/u 2.5: 72 28
Very equal teams, but as said multiple times before PS Kemi has been excellent at home not only based on the results but also in the way that they seem to play much more aggressively at home than away. Also they do have more individual talent than VIFK so with the coaching being likely quite equal this year I'd be prepared to try -0,5 for small stakes. For the past month and a half both teams have mostly just won so it's difficult to say anything negative about either team or their form. If anything, neither has displayed the same type of dominance as the legendary trio of SJK, OPA and OPS so succeeding in Ykkönen would need plenty of new signings. VIFK does not seem to have any significant injuries. Kemi missed their first choice gk last time but no information on whether he'll return, other than that there doesn't seem to be anybody else missing (e: the gk is still out, they also miss two regular starters from defense/midfield). Last week was disastrous with totals, but assuming that was just derby round jitters or just, you know, one fluke round (after all, no team goes full season with just 5-1 or 2-5 results) then I'd lean fairly hard towards the over in this game. PS Kemi does seem to be prone to occasional bore fests in away games, but at home the last time they had fewer than 3 goals scored was over a year ago. VIFK is currently quite a special case, normally they are the kings of low scoring football but recently it has been quite the opposite. Whether that is just a streak of random results or not I don't know, but there's not a better chance to continue that string of results than visiting Kemi. As this is still a top clash, 3.25 line would be something that I probably wouldn't get too excited with, but if the asians follow Bet365's odds then there's a fairly good chance for 3.0 which would be more than enough.
ORPa - PK-37 26 20 54
o/u 2.5: 63 37
As much as I despise PK-37 and would like to see more Oulu teams play in Kakkonen, the truth is that concerning betting angles there's only one possible choice and it's PK-37. PK-37 finally broke out of their unlucky spell by completely trashing YPA, although the red card obviously played a part in that. At the moment, their form is much better than ORP's, who have been terrible for a long time now. The home side's Tervarit win was the same old for them with even the winning goal coming from a very controversial refereeing decision in an otherwise even game. From the VIFK game onward, PK-37 has been playing good football despite the poor looking results, so even when playing away from home anything above 2,00 would be an instant bet. While I'd still place PK-37's quality at middle table at best, the gap between the current bottom two and the teams above them is just as big as the difference between the top trio and the teams underneath them. ORP did not fare any better offensively against Tervarit, so it's not difficult to expect them to have a hard time scoring against PK-37, who have for the past month played much like they have always played, meaning plenty of low scoring games. Of course some result have been quite misleading but the overall picture is still quite under-like. ORP's important gk still has one game remaining in his suspension (there's also some player movement, impossible to say whether the new players will do anything good for them), but I wouldn't expect them to have too much trouble defensively with PK-37, though the visitors are still the clear favorites today. e: PK-37 does seem to have their top scorer suspended, so not too hot on them anymore.
10.7.2013
7.7.2013
Highlights RoPS vs KuPS FT 1-0
Uneventful game. A few late chances for KuPS but it was not meant to be.
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 7.7
TP-47 - PS Kemi O3.25 64% 1,97 9/10 Sbobet
GBK - KPV O3.25 61% 1,87 8/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - PS Kemi 28 19 53
o/u 2.5: 77 23
A really fierce derby, or at least for this level. TP-47 has only picked one point from their last two games, but that was understandable as their opponents were much tougher than what they faced earlier. PS Kemi bounced back easily from their YPA defeat as they annihilated GBK at home. I'd say the standings are quite accurate for this game, though now that I think the table is surprisingly close to what most people were predicting in the preseason. There's only a one step difference in class if you want to think it that way, but the difference between the top teams and the teams underneath them is quite big, so even in an away game PS Kemi should be a quite big favorite. However, at away I don't trust them enough to make the -0,5 worthwhile, so unless -0,25 is available I'll skip the handicap. TP-47's is very vague about any injuries, but the players that are sure to be out should not affect them much. PS Kemi misses their first choice goalkeeper Vilmunen and regular starter Spivack, with Vilmunen being the important one. Both teams are very over-like so 3.25 would be more than welcome, 3.5 would be enough too but just for small stakes. TP-47 has been quite low scoring, but I'd attribute that to their opponents (VIFK with the late goals and PK-37) and the red card in YPA game, which obviously changes things. Before that they were consistently scoring and conceding at a very high rate. PS Kemi's Eissele and Pasher are in ridiculous form right now and though Kemi does not play the same way as YPA, they're almost as high-scoring as YPA just because of the sheer amount of talent in the team.
GBK - KPV 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 75 25
If Finland were a country where people followed football, GBK's coach Lomski would have been chased off weeks ago, but as it stands nobody really cares so it took this long to actually fire him. Their new coach is one of their players, a choice that probably makes more sense financially than anything. KPV continued their winning ways against Tervarit and if we just look at the recent form KPV could actually be considered a big favorite. However, I'm maybe too involved so the idea feels just too outrageous because GBK's squad is still considerably better than KPV's even when KPV's new signings are taken into account. Anyway, the new coach for GBK and the derby aspect are probably good enough reasons for skipping the handicap in this game. Hilariously enough GBK's David Carlsson was on vacation for the last few games, so if he has returned they should finally have almost their best squad available. KPV's injury situation is unknown, but assuming nothing has happened during the week they should also be free of injuries. Goals look a good choice for this game too, GBK's new coach is one of their defenders but I doubt they can fix their terrible defense this quickly, so KPV scoring two goals should not surprise much. GBK scoring streak continued against Kemi and despite the great form of KPV they haven't been totally invulnerable with their defense so GBK should have quite good chance to score again.
PK-37 - FC YPA 15 16 69
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's last 4 games have went much better for them than what the measly 1 point that they have picked up might suggest. YPA was equally unlucky against TP-47 when they gave up a late equalizer. The fact that they were undermanned for most of the game and still dominated TP-47 tells a lot about their quality so PK-37 will have tough time getting anything from them. However, PK-37 is still a step above ORP and Tervarit so the 1,35 that is currently offered would not be acceptable even under normal circumstances. In addition to Savic, who was sent-off, YPA will miss extremely important Maluka, and while they do have adequate replacements available something like -1,25 would not be appealing. Interestingly they did play without Maluka in the first meeting (he was subbed in in the 2nd half) but despite that PK-37 was destroyed completely during the first hour. I've lowered the total estimation considerably, but this still looks like a more over-like contest than the average. For a team like PK-37, who are slow and unskillful, YPA's style of play is likely to cause a lot of trouble again. The same cautious approach is probably sensible for the total too, so I wouldn't bother with a 3.5 line.
GBK - KPV O3.25 61% 1,87 8/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - PS Kemi 28 19 53
o/u 2.5: 77 23
A really fierce derby, or at least for this level. TP-47 has only picked one point from their last two games, but that was understandable as their opponents were much tougher than what they faced earlier. PS Kemi bounced back easily from their YPA defeat as they annihilated GBK at home. I'd say the standings are quite accurate for this game, though now that I think the table is surprisingly close to what most people were predicting in the preseason. There's only a one step difference in class if you want to think it that way, but the difference between the top teams and the teams underneath them is quite big, so even in an away game PS Kemi should be a quite big favorite. However, at away I don't trust them enough to make the -0,5 worthwhile, so unless -0,25 is available I'll skip the handicap. TP-47's is very vague about any injuries, but the players that are sure to be out should not affect them much. PS Kemi misses their first choice goalkeeper Vilmunen and regular starter Spivack, with Vilmunen being the important one. Both teams are very over-like so 3.25 would be more than welcome, 3.5 would be enough too but just for small stakes. TP-47 has been quite low scoring, but I'd attribute that to their opponents (VIFK with the late goals and PK-37) and the red card in YPA game, which obviously changes things. Before that they were consistently scoring and conceding at a very high rate. PS Kemi's Eissele and Pasher are in ridiculous form right now and though Kemi does not play the same way as YPA, they're almost as high-scoring as YPA just because of the sheer amount of talent in the team.
GBK - KPV 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 75 25
If Finland were a country where people followed football, GBK's coach Lomski would have been chased off weeks ago, but as it stands nobody really cares so it took this long to actually fire him. Their new coach is one of their players, a choice that probably makes more sense financially than anything. KPV continued their winning ways against Tervarit and if we just look at the recent form KPV could actually be considered a big favorite. However, I'm maybe too involved so the idea feels just too outrageous because GBK's squad is still considerably better than KPV's even when KPV's new signings are taken into account. Anyway, the new coach for GBK and the derby aspect are probably good enough reasons for skipping the handicap in this game. Hilariously enough GBK's David Carlsson was on vacation for the last few games, so if he has returned they should finally have almost their best squad available. KPV's injury situation is unknown, but assuming nothing has happened during the week they should also be free of injuries. Goals look a good choice for this game too, GBK's new coach is one of their defenders but I doubt they can fix their terrible defense this quickly, so KPV scoring two goals should not surprise much. GBK scoring streak continued against Kemi and despite the great form of KPV they haven't been totally invulnerable with their defense so GBK should have quite good chance to score again.
PK-37 - FC YPA 15 16 69
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's last 4 games have went much better for them than what the measly 1 point that they have picked up might suggest. YPA was equally unlucky against TP-47 when they gave up a late equalizer. The fact that they were undermanned for most of the game and still dominated TP-47 tells a lot about their quality so PK-37 will have tough time getting anything from them. However, PK-37 is still a step above ORP and Tervarit so the 1,35 that is currently offered would not be acceptable even under normal circumstances. In addition to Savic, who was sent-off, YPA will miss extremely important Maluka, and while they do have adequate replacements available something like -1,25 would not be appealing. Interestingly they did play without Maluka in the first meeting (he was subbed in in the 2nd half) but despite that PK-37 was destroyed completely during the first hour. I've lowered the total estimation considerably, but this still looks like a more over-like contest than the average. For a team like PK-37, who are slow and unskillful, YPA's style of play is likely to cause a lot of trouble again. The same cautious approach is probably sensible for the total too, so I wouldn't bother with a 3.5 line.
Tilaa:
Blogitekstit (Atom)