22.7.2013
21.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 21.7
Lots of odds movement for some reason, a possible bet on KPV but that game is not interesting anyway so I'll wait for the line-ups.
PK-37 - PS Kemi -0,5 2 66% 6/10 188Bet
PK-37 - PS Kemi O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
ORP - GBK -0,5 2 70% 1,88 9/10 188Bet (-0,75 66,5% at Sbobet, was expecting -1 so that would be 9/10 too)
ORP - GBK O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
KPV - TP-47 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31
KPV should have their best squad available, TP-47 got two guys sent off last time but they're not the most indispensable players. RoPS help is possible, likely to be Forsman and/or Lahdenmäki, who've usually helped quite a bit. After going on a long winning streak, KPV has now lost two in a row. Both losses have however been quite unlucky, and the opponents were really tough so KPV has nothing to be ashamed of. Drawing with Tervarit is inexcusable for a team of TP-47's caliber, and while their performances have been acceptable, I'm not that high on a team that hasn't won in a long time. On the other hand, Kemi, YPA and VIFK is a tough streak of games to go through, and before that TP-47 was remarkably consistent in their ability to not lose against teams outside those three. Really tough to say whether either of these has earned the right to call themselves a favorite so I'll settle for the middle option. TP-47 has been better when looking at the long-term performances while KPV has maybe played slightly better recently, player quality is probably quite equal but TP-47 does have the edge in coaching. KPV should still be somewhere along the middle in totals, TP-47 has been extremely low-scoring lately after they were completely opposite of that in the first 1/3 of the season and as the information about TP-47 is still very scarce (still a few rounds until they come here) I'll likely take a pass with the total bets here.
PK-37 - PS Kemi 17 17 66
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's Lähderinne returns from suspension, PS Kemi's preview talks of two starters being out (no names mentioned, who could've guessed), Torvic and Tervarit transfer Ogbuefi being back will help them quite a bit. PK-37's good run came to an end against GBK who completely outplayed them. PS Kemi is at least on the same level as GBK but it would be silly to base your estimation on just one game so obviously PK-37 is not totally without chances here. PK-37 has usually been quite good at home, and PS Kemi's away performances have still been quite suspect even though they've managed to win a few games. However, that's mostly just nitpicking since PS Kemi has still won almost all of their games, and even the losses have had plenty of things go against them. The class difference is big enough to make -1 for the visitors interesting, as PK-37 is still a middle table team at best and PS Kemi is on top of the ranking along with YPA. PK-37's games against good offensive teams have usually ended in goalfests and it's not difficult to see PS Kemi's speedy strikers having a field day against PK-37's slow defense. I'll still be a bit cautious as I've been burned multiple times with PS Kemi's low scoring away games, so 3.25 would not be that interesting.
ORPa - GBK 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28
In case anyone actually reads these they should be quite familiar with the situation here. Since they've played so poorly lately, ORP does not bother with writing previews but I'd assume all the "key" players will be available meaning that Rönkkö will return from his suspension. GBK's Melarti will likely still miss this game. ORP is still hanging in the relegation battle mostly because they managed to win a couple of games against Tervarit and KPV, otherwise they haven't been competitive against other teams if the first few games are not taken in account. GBK was terrible in the first two months but after they sacked their coach they've now won three games in a row. In simple terms this is a game between a team very likely to get relegated and a team that is probably just as good as VIFK despite their poor position in the table. Fatigue could be the only thing going against GBK as this is their third game in a week, but other than that it's difficult to see anything other than an away win. GBK's record is pretty self-explanatory, they've practically always went over the 2.5 line and o3.5 has happened almost as often. ORP offense remains very weak despite last week's two goals, so the improved GBK defense could prove too hard to crack. Rönkkö's return will help ORP but GBK is scoring at will right now against better teams than ORP so he'd need to pull more than a few miracle saves to keep the score respectable.
PK-37 - PS Kemi -0,5 2 66% 6/10 188Bet
PK-37 - PS Kemi O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
ORP - GBK -0,5 2 70% 1,88 9/10 188Bet (-0,75 66,5% at Sbobet, was expecting -1 so that would be 9/10 too)
ORP - GBK O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
KPV - TP-47 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31
KPV should have their best squad available, TP-47 got two guys sent off last time but they're not the most indispensable players. RoPS help is possible, likely to be Forsman and/or Lahdenmäki, who've usually helped quite a bit. After going on a long winning streak, KPV has now lost two in a row. Both losses have however been quite unlucky, and the opponents were really tough so KPV has nothing to be ashamed of. Drawing with Tervarit is inexcusable for a team of TP-47's caliber, and while their performances have been acceptable, I'm not that high on a team that hasn't won in a long time. On the other hand, Kemi, YPA and VIFK is a tough streak of games to go through, and before that TP-47 was remarkably consistent in their ability to not lose against teams outside those three. Really tough to say whether either of these has earned the right to call themselves a favorite so I'll settle for the middle option. TP-47 has been better when looking at the long-term performances while KPV has maybe played slightly better recently, player quality is probably quite equal but TP-47 does have the edge in coaching. KPV should still be somewhere along the middle in totals, TP-47 has been extremely low-scoring lately after they were completely opposite of that in the first 1/3 of the season and as the information about TP-47 is still very scarce (still a few rounds until they come here) I'll likely take a pass with the total bets here.
PK-37 - PS Kemi 17 17 66
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's Lähderinne returns from suspension, PS Kemi's preview talks of two starters being out (no names mentioned, who could've guessed), Torvic and Tervarit transfer Ogbuefi being back will help them quite a bit. PK-37's good run came to an end against GBK who completely outplayed them. PS Kemi is at least on the same level as GBK but it would be silly to base your estimation on just one game so obviously PK-37 is not totally without chances here. PK-37 has usually been quite good at home, and PS Kemi's away performances have still been quite suspect even though they've managed to win a few games. However, that's mostly just nitpicking since PS Kemi has still won almost all of their games, and even the losses have had plenty of things go against them. The class difference is big enough to make -1 for the visitors interesting, as PK-37 is still a middle table team at best and PS Kemi is on top of the ranking along with YPA. PK-37's games against good offensive teams have usually ended in goalfests and it's not difficult to see PS Kemi's speedy strikers having a field day against PK-37's slow defense. I'll still be a bit cautious as I've been burned multiple times with PS Kemi's low scoring away games, so 3.25 would not be that interesting.
ORPa - GBK 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28
In case anyone actually reads these they should be quite familiar with the situation here. Since they've played so poorly lately, ORP does not bother with writing previews but I'd assume all the "key" players will be available meaning that Rönkkö will return from his suspension. GBK's Melarti will likely still miss this game. ORP is still hanging in the relegation battle mostly because they managed to win a couple of games against Tervarit and KPV, otherwise they haven't been competitive against other teams if the first few games are not taken in account. GBK was terrible in the first two months but after they sacked their coach they've now won three games in a row. In simple terms this is a game between a team very likely to get relegated and a team that is probably just as good as VIFK despite their poor position in the table. Fatigue could be the only thing going against GBK as this is their third game in a week, but other than that it's difficult to see anything other than an away win. GBK's record is pretty self-explanatory, they've practically always went over the 2.5 line and o3.5 has happened almost as often. ORP offense remains very weak despite last week's two goals, so the improved GBK defense could prove too hard to crack. Rönkkö's return will help ORP but GBK is scoring at will right now against better teams than ORP so he'd need to pull more than a few miracle saves to keep the score respectable.
20.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.7
Won't be able to check Kerho 07's line-ups, with current information -1,5 does not raise any interest.
FC YPA - VIFK O3.0 64,5% 1,92 9/10 Sbobet
Kerho 07 - Tervarit O3.25 60% 1,92 6,5/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - VIFK 54 19 27
o/u 2.5: 72 28
YPA has important Morrison-Derbyshire out from defense, VIFK with no one out. YPA had a second bad game in a row yet this time they somehow managed to win KPV instead of getting blown out like against PK-37. The recent form is naturally a worrying thing, but they're still pretty much one of the best team in the group along with PS Kemi and today's opponents VIFK. VIFK was dismantled by PS Kemi last week, and though YPA is not at their best at the moment I'd expect this to go the same way. There's a considerable difference between the player quality in favor of YPA so while you could rank these two pretty close together, in a h2h match and at home I'll favor YPA much more heavily. Only one bookmaker has released any odds as of writing, but they don't seem to be fooled by the standings either so with 1,65-level odds offered for the home team the 1x2 market looks like a no bet. The same bookie seems to expect this to be a more low-scoring game than usual which I disagree with. All the goals were scored in the 2nd half in VIFK's last game, but there were plenty of chances in that game even in the first half so overall the trend of high scoring football for VIFK seems to be continuing. YPA's normally reliable attack has tanked slightly in the recent games, but on the other hand their defense has suffered equal lapses as they've now started conceding goals regularly, which is a big change to the first 1/3 of the season when they had tons of clean sheets. As said before, top clashes usually don't end up being particularly careful affairs in this group and I doubt that we'll see it change here. European odds suggest that 3.0 could be available, which would be very very appealing.
Kerho 07 - Tervarit 74 14 12
o/u 2.5: 74 26
SJK's, or I mean Kerho 07's player situation seems to be chaotic at the moment so the wisest thing to do is wait for the line-ups which appear exactly one hour before the kick-off. 28 different players have started for Tervarit this season, and that probably is enough player news about them. One noteworthy thing is the transfer of Ogbuefi from Tervarit to PS Kemi, and from those teams you can likely guess how good of a player Ogbuefi is. Nevertheless, he hasn't played with them lately so no effect on this game. As strange as it may sound, Kerho 07 seems to have played ok against GBK even though they lost by four goals. Before that the results have been quite similar, they've been pretty competitive against good teams, but wins have been very hard to come by. Personally I'd love to see these useless reserve teams go down or form a league of their own (Klubi 04 playing in Ykkönen was a blasphemy enough), but I fear the games against ORP and Tervarit are going to save them this year at least. Tervarit draw against TP-47 last week was something that I honestly never saw coming especially considering the line-up they fielded. What actually happened in TP-47 match is still a bit unclear, but if the home team's report is to be believed TP-47 was very much on top so that at least sounds familiar. Any Tervarit bets are still not an option, Kerho 07 has enough turmoil going on right now in addition to questionable form that anything near to last week's -2,25 (TP-47 vs Tervarit) is out of the question. Based solely on the big class difference I'd take a chance with over 3.25, but it would be in no way anywhere near a tasty bet. A lot depends on the home team's line-up, but in general terms before the TP-47 match any semi-competitive team usually dropped at least a few goals on Tervarit so expecting Kerho 07 to do the same would not be that far fetched.
FC YPA - VIFK O3.0 64,5% 1,92 9/10 Sbobet
Kerho 07 - Tervarit O3.25 60% 1,92 6,5/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - VIFK 54 19 27
o/u 2.5: 72 28
YPA has important Morrison-Derbyshire out from defense, VIFK with no one out. YPA had a second bad game in a row yet this time they somehow managed to win KPV instead of getting blown out like against PK-37. The recent form is naturally a worrying thing, but they're still pretty much one of the best team in the group along with PS Kemi and today's opponents VIFK. VIFK was dismantled by PS Kemi last week, and though YPA is not at their best at the moment I'd expect this to go the same way. There's a considerable difference between the player quality in favor of YPA so while you could rank these two pretty close together, in a h2h match and at home I'll favor YPA much more heavily. Only one bookmaker has released any odds as of writing, but they don't seem to be fooled by the standings either so with 1,65-level odds offered for the home team the 1x2 market looks like a no bet. The same bookie seems to expect this to be a more low-scoring game than usual which I disagree with. All the goals were scored in the 2nd half in VIFK's last game, but there were plenty of chances in that game even in the first half so overall the trend of high scoring football for VIFK seems to be continuing. YPA's normally reliable attack has tanked slightly in the recent games, but on the other hand their defense has suffered equal lapses as they've now started conceding goals regularly, which is a big change to the first 1/3 of the season when they had tons of clean sheets. As said before, top clashes usually don't end up being particularly careful affairs in this group and I doubt that we'll see it change here. European odds suggest that 3.0 could be available, which would be very very appealing.
Kerho 07 - Tervarit 74 14 12
o/u 2.5: 74 26
SJK's, or I mean Kerho 07's player situation seems to be chaotic at the moment so the wisest thing to do is wait for the line-ups which appear exactly one hour before the kick-off. 28 different players have started for Tervarit this season, and that probably is enough player news about them. One noteworthy thing is the transfer of Ogbuefi from Tervarit to PS Kemi, and from those teams you can likely guess how good of a player Ogbuefi is. Nevertheless, he hasn't played with them lately so no effect on this game. As strange as it may sound, Kerho 07 seems to have played ok against GBK even though they lost by four goals. Before that the results have been quite similar, they've been pretty competitive against good teams, but wins have been very hard to come by. Personally I'd love to see these useless reserve teams go down or form a league of their own (Klubi 04 playing in Ykkönen was a blasphemy enough), but I fear the games against ORP and Tervarit are going to save them this year at least. Tervarit draw against TP-47 last week was something that I honestly never saw coming especially considering the line-up they fielded. What actually happened in TP-47 match is still a bit unclear, but if the home team's report is to be believed TP-47 was very much on top so that at least sounds familiar. Any Tervarit bets are still not an option, Kerho 07 has enough turmoil going on right now in addition to questionable form that anything near to last week's -2,25 (TP-47 vs Tervarit) is out of the question. Based solely on the big class difference I'd take a chance with over 3.25, but it would be in no way anywhere near a tasty bet. A lot depends on the home team's line-up, but in general terms before the TP-47 match any semi-competitive team usually dropped at least a few goals on Tervarit so expecting Kerho 07 to do the same would not be that far fetched.
17.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 17.7
GBK - PK-37 O3.25 56% 1,90 2,5/10 Sbobet
GBK - PK-37 58 19 23
o/u 2.5: 71 29
The topscorer from last year (19 goals in 25 games), Melarti, is still missing from GBK's lineup. PK-37's player manager Lähderinne is suspended. GBK beat Kerho 07 convincingly last week, and while the winning margin was too big, the overall performance seems to have been quite similar to what worked for them in 2011 and 2012, meaning solid defending and extremely efficient finishing. The big margin of victory probably also ruined any chance of getting playable odds for GBK if the Asians follow the European odds. I'll likely a need a couple of more wins from GBK to be fully convinced, but at the moment it looks like they are finally back and with the squad that they have it means they could be just behind PS Kemi, FC YPA and VIFK in terms of team quality or ranking. PK-37 made the ORP win look much harder than it was as their gk committed couple of errors which led to both ORP goals. Otherwise they were in full control most of the time, and though they did not get many chances, there was the lingering feeling that they would have inevitably scored the necessary goals to win the game anyway. It could be almost said that PK-37 is in better form now than GBK, as they've played at a pretty good level for a few weeks now. However, on paper GBK is so much better that I wouldn't bother with PK-37 +1 even if it were available. And similarly, the same thing could be said for GBK, one shaky win against KPV and defeating Kerho 07, who are not playing that good at the moment, is not enough to make either -0,75 or -1 interesting.
GBK did go over the line last week, but now that their defense seems to be much improved they're probably not as big over team as they were before. Despite that, they have plenty of quality in their attack so I wouldn't lower them too much, and luckily the opportunity to see them in action comes already on Sunday against ORP so I won't have to use random.org to come up with total estimations. PK-37's last game had five goals in it, but there honestly wasn't that much entertainment value in it, in fact it was quite the opposite since even the half chances resulted in goals. Before that PK-37 was quite under-like lately, but as usual in Kakkonen North, three goals is not that unheard of for any team so when playing against a team like GBK I wouldn't be able to resist the opportunity to take the over if the line were 3.0, though in all likelihood the line will again be 3.25 like it almost always is.
GBK - PK-37 58 19 23
o/u 2.5: 71 29
The topscorer from last year (19 goals in 25 games), Melarti, is still missing from GBK's lineup. PK-37's player manager Lähderinne is suspended. GBK beat Kerho 07 convincingly last week, and while the winning margin was too big, the overall performance seems to have been quite similar to what worked for them in 2011 and 2012, meaning solid defending and extremely efficient finishing. The big margin of victory probably also ruined any chance of getting playable odds for GBK if the Asians follow the European odds. I'll likely a need a couple of more wins from GBK to be fully convinced, but at the moment it looks like they are finally back and with the squad that they have it means they could be just behind PS Kemi, FC YPA and VIFK in terms of team quality or ranking. PK-37 made the ORP win look much harder than it was as their gk committed couple of errors which led to both ORP goals. Otherwise they were in full control most of the time, and though they did not get many chances, there was the lingering feeling that they would have inevitably scored the necessary goals to win the game anyway. It could be almost said that PK-37 is in better form now than GBK, as they've played at a pretty good level for a few weeks now. However, on paper GBK is so much better that I wouldn't bother with PK-37 +1 even if it were available. And similarly, the same thing could be said for GBK, one shaky win against KPV and defeating Kerho 07, who are not playing that good at the moment, is not enough to make either -0,75 or -1 interesting.
GBK did go over the line last week, but now that their defense seems to be much improved they're probably not as big over team as they were before. Despite that, they have plenty of quality in their attack so I wouldn't lower them too much, and luckily the opportunity to see them in action comes already on Sunday against ORP so I won't have to use random.org to come up with total estimations. PK-37's last game had five goals in it, but there honestly wasn't that much entertainment value in it, in fact it was quite the opposite since even the half chances resulted in goals. Before that PK-37 was quite under-like lately, but as usual in Kakkonen North, three goals is not that unheard of for any team so when playing against a team like GBK I wouldn't be able to resist the opportunity to take the over if the line were 3.0, though in all likelihood the line will again be 3.25 like it almost always is.
16.7.2013
Highlights KuPS vs JJK Ft 2-1
KuPS bet "comfortably" home. Unlucky not to finish JJK off earlier, lucky to have enough time to score the winner after the late and undeserved 1-1 equalizer from penalty spot.
Thank you Ilja Venäläinen!
14.7.2013
Highlights OPS vs PK-35 FT 2-0
Finally PK-35 manager Pihamaa gets fired. A few more managers needing the sabbatical year, lets see if we also get Rajamäki, Dragtsma and Pekonen out before the season is over.
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