Here.
Updates from Monday´s two games MIFK vs TPS & RoPS vs MyPa.
TPS continue playing without using midfield at all, RoPS scored - as expected - from a corner and that was enough for a winner.
30.7.2013
28.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 28.7
Tervarit - FC YPA 10 13 77
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Live update on either Twitter or Puntteri's halftime newsletter. PS Kemi managed to gloriously screw-up their game yesterday, but since YPA's squad is extremely narrow I'd say this is a much more difficult game to predict than that. Tervarit has picked up a couple scrappy draws and at least defense has improved considerably in the last few games, goalscoring is still a huge problem for them as they have zero quality upfront now that Ogbuefi is playing elsewhere. YPA's form has dipped slightly lately and they're still weakened by suspensions, this time from each part of the field (Junno, Morrisson-Derbyshire and Akmetkhanov). The questionable players (Colovic and Pejic) should be able to play, and since they will still have almost all of their key attacking players available the player situation isn't that bad after all considering who they're facing. However, the reality is that the odds are so miniscule for the away team that any pregame bets for YPA are out of question, and in fact something like Tervarit +2 could actually be the more attractive option. Total is also something that I'd prefer to leave for live betting, Tervarit has been able to keep the numbers respectable lately but then again the opponents have been much weaker than YPA so this will provide a much stiffer test for them. With the current odds I'd lean towards the under, last week's ORP-GBK was actually quite a similar type of match and the line was only 3.0 so the current European odds (3.5 and about even) don't raise much interest for me.
TP-47 - Kerho 07 52 20 28
o/u 2.5: 68 32
How about no. Both teams are struggling, Bobb left TP-47 and they have other missings too, Kerho 07 line-up is always a mystery, so it's tough to find a more unappealing game than this. TP-47 has been very draw-happy and mediocre lately, which in betting terms is never a good thing, and on the other side Kerho 07 hasn't won a proper team since middle of May but they have been fairly competitive most of the time. I'll give TP-47 a small edge as they have at least won a few games more than Kerho 07 in the past couple of months, but truthfully the difference seems to be quite small which is perhaps best evidenced by the same type of draws in Tervarit games. Total is equally a complete crapshoot, I'd assume the relatively low scoring games for both teams recently are mostly due to the ineffective form rather than them suddenly adopting JIPPO tactics but interpreting heavily biased match reports is always tough so I'd prefet to skip the total too. TP-47 loses a big chunk of offensive power in Bobb and Huusko & Badji have by my understanding been important parts of their offense also. Kerho 07 could get Caumo back from SJK which would help a lot, both previews talk about plenty of youngsters being on the field today but that doesn't really help total betting as that could go easily the either way.
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Live update on either Twitter or Puntteri's halftime newsletter. PS Kemi managed to gloriously screw-up their game yesterday, but since YPA's squad is extremely narrow I'd say this is a much more difficult game to predict than that. Tervarit has picked up a couple scrappy draws and at least defense has improved considerably in the last few games, goalscoring is still a huge problem for them as they have zero quality upfront now that Ogbuefi is playing elsewhere. YPA's form has dipped slightly lately and they're still weakened by suspensions, this time from each part of the field (Junno, Morrisson-Derbyshire and Akmetkhanov). The questionable players (Colovic and Pejic) should be able to play, and since they will still have almost all of their key attacking players available the player situation isn't that bad after all considering who they're facing. However, the reality is that the odds are so miniscule for the away team that any pregame bets for YPA are out of question, and in fact something like Tervarit +2 could actually be the more attractive option. Total is also something that I'd prefer to leave for live betting, Tervarit has been able to keep the numbers respectable lately but then again the opponents have been much weaker than YPA so this will provide a much stiffer test for them. With the current odds I'd lean towards the under, last week's ORP-GBK was actually quite a similar type of match and the line was only 3.0 so the current European odds (3.5 and about even) don't raise much interest for me.
TP-47 - Kerho 07 52 20 28
o/u 2.5: 68 32
How about no. Both teams are struggling, Bobb left TP-47 and they have other missings too, Kerho 07 line-up is always a mystery, so it's tough to find a more unappealing game than this. TP-47 has been very draw-happy and mediocre lately, which in betting terms is never a good thing, and on the other side Kerho 07 hasn't won a proper team since middle of May but they have been fairly competitive most of the time. I'll give TP-47 a small edge as they have at least won a few games more than Kerho 07 in the past couple of months, but truthfully the difference seems to be quite small which is perhaps best evidenced by the same type of draws in Tervarit games. Total is equally a complete crapshoot, I'd assume the relatively low scoring games for both teams recently are mostly due to the ineffective form rather than them suddenly adopting JIPPO tactics but interpreting heavily biased match reports is always tough so I'd prefet to skip the total too. TP-47 loses a big chunk of offensive power in Bobb and Huusko & Badji have by my understanding been important parts of their offense also. Kerho 07 could get Caumo back from SJK which would help a lot, both previews talk about plenty of youngsters being on the field today but that doesn't really help total betting as that could go easily the either way.
27.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.7
PS Kemi - ORP -2,25 1 64,5% 1,75 8/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - ORPa 91 6 3
o/u 2.5: 78 22
PS Kemi convincingly beat YPA on Wednesday so it's safe to say they're the best team in the group right now, however, just like for FC YPA, couple of injuries or suspensions to their key players could easily derail PS Kemi's season. ORP hung tough against GBK, but a draw would have been the maximum result for them as they were only able to create one good chance. One of the few players who has proved that he can do something offensively, Karjalainen, was injured in GBK game, so if he's still out their attack outlook looks pretty grim. Like the table tells, the class difference is huge, and thus the only interesting thing in betting terms is how many goals will PS Kemi bother to score. Fatigue could also play a role as this is Kemi's third game in a week, same goes for mental stuff aswell: after a top match, will the intensity level be as good when the opposing team is as uninspiring as ORP? Regardless, Kemi's coaching has been much praised and at home they're still almost unbeatable, so even a -2,75 line would be worth a small try. The total is obviously closely linked to estimating Kemi's interest mostly because ORP really sucks in goalscoring department. Apart from last week's GBK game, good teams have usually scored a few in ORP's net so I'm not too worried about ORP having some low-scoring games recently. Kemi picked up an annoying under in the YPA match, but even without sour grapes it wasn't a bad bet in hindsight especially with the 2.75 line. PS Kemi's three goal streak at home is still running in twenties, but of course the line will almost certainly be at least 3.5 so that would be just a small bet, with maybe more in live in case the line changes quickly.
PS Kemi - ORPa 91 6 3
o/u 2.5: 78 22
PS Kemi convincingly beat YPA on Wednesday so it's safe to say they're the best team in the group right now, however, just like for FC YPA, couple of injuries or suspensions to their key players could easily derail PS Kemi's season. ORP hung tough against GBK, but a draw would have been the maximum result for them as they were only able to create one good chance. One of the few players who has proved that he can do something offensively, Karjalainen, was injured in GBK game, so if he's still out their attack outlook looks pretty grim. Like the table tells, the class difference is huge, and thus the only interesting thing in betting terms is how many goals will PS Kemi bother to score. Fatigue could also play a role as this is Kemi's third game in a week, same goes for mental stuff aswell: after a top match, will the intensity level be as good when the opposing team is as uninspiring as ORP? Regardless, Kemi's coaching has been much praised and at home they're still almost unbeatable, so even a -2,75 line would be worth a small try. The total is obviously closely linked to estimating Kemi's interest mostly because ORP really sucks in goalscoring department. Apart from last week's GBK game, good teams have usually scored a few in ORP's net so I'm not too worried about ORP having some low-scoring games recently. Kemi picked up an annoying under in the YPA match, but even without sour grapes it wasn't a bad bet in hindsight especially with the 2.75 line. PS Kemi's three goal streak at home is still running in twenties, but of course the line will almost certainly be at least 3.5 so that would be just a small bet, with maybe more in live in case the line changes quickly.
24.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen & AC Oulu-OPS
FC YPA - PS Kemi O2.75 71% 1,81 10/10 Sbobet (O3.0 67 %)
FC YPA - PS Kemi 44 20 36
o/u 2.5: 74 26
To say that both teams struggled a lot last weekend would be an understatement of the week, or how does it sound to have to come back in an away game from 2-0 down with a very depleted squad or having to survive this in the last minute? The fact that YPA and Kemi both won is probably a good example why they're placed 1st and 2nd as lesser teams would have likely crumbled to a draw in those kind of circumstances. With current European odds I'd be tempted to put something on PS Kemi, but knowing the line-ups would be quite important before making any decisions. PS Kemi missed plenty of regular starters from PK-37 match, including their first choice gk Vilmunen, Ions, midfield enforcer Pätsi and Pasher (8 goals and many assists too). YPA does get their important defender Morrison-Derbyshire back, but topscorer Pejic is suspended. Also, two regular starters from defense, Pakola and Colovic, are questionable. Normally these two teams would be quite equal and I'd say the team news favour PS Kemi slightly assuming the forum rumours are true that they'll get most of those missing players back, so +0,5 would be acceptable for a small bet.
Due to the volatile nature of Kakkonen odds and the low limits for most people, it's probably quite silly to make any staking suggestions, but I'll say it anyway: from 2005 to 2013 practically all the profits have come from 1x2 and handicap bets, and the total selections have been the very definition of fun bets with just tiny amount of profit. This game looks to be very high-scoring both statistically and in terms of playing style. YPA and PS Kemi have the best offenses in the league if not in the whole Kakkonen and while the defenses have been just as good statistically the recent (defensive) form has not been as good for either team as it was a month ago. Pejic is a big blow for YPA, but they do have plenty of offensive talent available as the possible missing players are all defenders. YPA-VIFK was another entertaining top clash and this game going the same way wouldn't even surprise Juha Mieto.
AC Oulu-OPS
Not really confident with recommending anything for Ykkönen, but with current odds OPS +0.5 and U2.5 are the only possible choices. AC Oulu has been almost JIPPO-like after gk Monsalve replaced Lindolm and it's not really a coincidence since the defense has been much improved, and on the other hand, Mäkelä being injured and Adeyinka flopping have ensured that the normally entertaining offense depends too much on Heikkilä. Ojala is still a quite good prospect, but expecting him to score consistently is not fair, and he does usually play at midfield anyway. Verronen and Sohlo have either got minimal playing or have not impressed that much to expect them to provide any significant offensive output, and don't even start with Haanpää. I'd attribute OPS' recent good form mostly on their opponents as both PK-35 and SJK are in disaster mode right now. Though I didn't see the PK-35 match, the SJK win had plenty of luck involved in it. Now that Ngambe^2 is gone, the strength of OPS lies even more clearly in their defense. Gk Koponen, Gurzeda, Jibrin and Räisänen are all elite players in Ykkönen and the full/wing backs can hold their own at this level. OPS offense relies heavily on set pieces of Ramires and giving, or more accurately hoofing, the ball to Stewart, who is likely one of the fastest players in Ykkönen. Nepotism, homegrown rule and expensive Finnish players mean that there is plenty of dead weight upfront in OPS. Juntunen, Autti, Elijah Christopher, Kemppainen, Peci, Huovinen & co are useless for this level, and in comparison they make even AC Oulu's rotation players look threatening.
If AC Oulu were playing with their best squad and were in good form I'd say -0,5 would be justified. However, for the lack of better word ACO's games have been very sluggish in Monsalve era, in fact almost every match including the JIPPO game could have easily ended in draw - outside those 4 games which actually were draws. OPS knows how to defend (and they'll almost certainly do it today), and the same thing could be said for AC Oulu too recently, and I don't think the class difference is as big as the odds suggest. Also, the recent meetings between these two have been very cautious, uneventful and boring (even in Finland there are some matches you don't want to lose), so unless either team drastically changes their approach I don't see there being many goals scored in this.
Torture your ears with the AC Oulu goal song:
FC YPA - PS Kemi 44 20 36
o/u 2.5: 74 26
To say that both teams struggled a lot last weekend would be an understatement of the week, or how does it sound to have to come back in an away game from 2-0 down with a very depleted squad or having to survive this in the last minute? The fact that YPA and Kemi both won is probably a good example why they're placed 1st and 2nd as lesser teams would have likely crumbled to a draw in those kind of circumstances. With current European odds I'd be tempted to put something on PS Kemi, but knowing the line-ups would be quite important before making any decisions. PS Kemi missed plenty of regular starters from PK-37 match, including their first choice gk Vilmunen, Ions, midfield enforcer Pätsi and Pasher (8 goals and many assists too). YPA does get their important defender Morrison-Derbyshire back, but topscorer Pejic is suspended. Also, two regular starters from defense, Pakola and Colovic, are questionable. Normally these two teams would be quite equal and I'd say the team news favour PS Kemi slightly assuming the forum rumours are true that they'll get most of those missing players back, so +0,5 would be acceptable for a small bet.
Due to the volatile nature of Kakkonen odds and the low limits for most people, it's probably quite silly to make any staking suggestions, but I'll say it anyway: from 2005 to 2013 practically all the profits have come from 1x2 and handicap bets, and the total selections have been the very definition of fun bets with just tiny amount of profit. This game looks to be very high-scoring both statistically and in terms of playing style. YPA and PS Kemi have the best offenses in the league if not in the whole Kakkonen and while the defenses have been just as good statistically the recent (defensive) form has not been as good for either team as it was a month ago. Pejic is a big blow for YPA, but they do have plenty of offensive talent available as the possible missing players are all defenders. YPA-VIFK was another entertaining top clash and this game going the same way wouldn't even surprise Juha Mieto.
AC Oulu-OPS
Not really confident with recommending anything for Ykkönen, but with current odds OPS +0.5 and U2.5 are the only possible choices. AC Oulu has been almost JIPPO-like after gk Monsalve replaced Lindolm and it's not really a coincidence since the defense has been much improved, and on the other hand, Mäkelä being injured and Adeyinka flopping have ensured that the normally entertaining offense depends too much on Heikkilä. Ojala is still a quite good prospect, but expecting him to score consistently is not fair, and he does usually play at midfield anyway. Verronen and Sohlo have either got minimal playing or have not impressed that much to expect them to provide any significant offensive output, and don't even start with Haanpää. I'd attribute OPS' recent good form mostly on their opponents as both PK-35 and SJK are in disaster mode right now. Though I didn't see the PK-35 match, the SJK win had plenty of luck involved in it. Now that Ngambe^2 is gone, the strength of OPS lies even more clearly in their defense. Gk Koponen, Gurzeda, Jibrin and Räisänen are all elite players in Ykkönen and the full/wing backs can hold their own at this level. OPS offense relies heavily on set pieces of Ramires and giving, or more accurately hoofing, the ball to Stewart, who is likely one of the fastest players in Ykkönen. Nepotism, homegrown rule and expensive Finnish players mean that there is plenty of dead weight upfront in OPS. Juntunen, Autti, Elijah Christopher, Kemppainen, Peci, Huovinen & co are useless for this level, and in comparison they make even AC Oulu's rotation players look threatening.
If AC Oulu were playing with their best squad and were in good form I'd say -0,5 would be justified. However, for the lack of better word ACO's games have been very sluggish in Monsalve era, in fact almost every match including the JIPPO game could have easily ended in draw - outside those 4 games which actually were draws. OPS knows how to defend (and they'll almost certainly do it today), and the same thing could be said for AC Oulu too recently, and I don't think the class difference is as big as the odds suggest. Also, the recent meetings between these two have been very cautious, uneventful and boring (even in Finland there are some matches you don't want to lose), so unless either team drastically changes their approach I don't see there being many goals scored in this.
Torture your ears with the AC Oulu goal song:
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