21.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 21.9

PK-37 - OLS 39 23 38
o/u 2.5: 62 38

OLS has kept the numbers respectable most of the time while PK-37 has been getting blown out much more often so in that sense it's not that strange to see the odds so even. Even so, I just can't bring myself to think OLS as favorites so the handicap shall remain untouched. Over is a different story though, no stakes in this game and there have been enough goals in the last few games of these teams that it should be worth a try.

OPS - JBK 50 22 28
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Massive game for JBK, OPS could practically secure a top-5 position and an extra home game for next if they win. For a team in constant turmoil and ever dwindling squad OPS results have been pretty good lately. If none of the remaining key players have not left I'd still rate them as better team than JBK, who while having a few impressive results of their own lately are still a pretty limited team. Total odds are really lousy for the over so no interest there.

PK-37 - OLS O2.75 58% 1,88 4/10 Sbobet

20.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.9

KPV - PS Kemi 13 17 70
o/u 2.5: 63 37

KPV's last game was just as bad as the result looks. Bottom dweller OLS did not have an excellent game but that was still enough to beat KPV who looked pretty uninspired. That said, I doubt KPV can play any worse and they should be more fired up for this match but as it remains there's no way I'd get involved with them. PS Kemi annoyingly won only by one goal last week but the win nevertheless was yet again a deserved one. They're at full strength and there's not much you can criticize on their recent form. The odds at asian bookmakers however are a joke so if you want to bet on Kemi it's best to look at the european bookies (1,45 to 1,50 available). At hunch level I can't see anything other than an away win, in totals over at 1,70 could be worth a try but again the asian odds are much lower.

AC Kajaani - GBK 62 20 18
o/u 2.5: 57 43

Jarmo Korhonen always finds a way to ruin the entertainment levels, this time it was a draw against YPA last week which all but assured that Kemi will take the play-off spot. But back to this game again, despite not playing that good lately Kajaani still remains a very tough team to beat and they should be a pretty big favorite purely by the sheer quality they possess in their squad. However, the times they have actually won by more than a one goal can be counted by one one hand so because the line is -1/+1 and as GBK is not playing too badly lately my hunch recommendation would definitely be towards visitors.

TP-47 - FC YPA 21 21 58
o/u 2.5: 58 42

A do or die game for YPA and I wouldn't be too surprised to see them stumble here. While TP-47 has been a pesky opponent most of the season (in the start of the season they didn't many concrete results of that) YPA's long streak of wins is respectable enough that they're a hefty favorites even at away field. But in betting terms the -0,75 has that extra -0,25 which means no interest in the visitors, YPA's recent OLS game did not leave an good impression as they didn't create that many chances and actually employed heavy timewasting tactics in the second half. Even more so than last week YPA will have to go for a win so that urgency could help with the total but I'm personally skipping that also. All in all the odds are pretty spot on today, GBK +1, PS Kemi straight win and overs for YPA and Kemi would be my hunch choices.

14.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 14.9

OLS - KPV 23 21 56
o/u 2.5: 58 42

Two teams with no motivation, unless you count one extra home game for KPV as an incentive. No solid ideas floating around my head, but I'd lean strongly towards KPV as the line is "only" -0,75 so if OLS again managed to keep it respectable it would be a half-win at least. Last week the home team managed to give some trouble for YPA so and KPV's form has been pretty erratic lately so the first home win for OLS would not sound totally impossible, but as said week from week OLS always manages to find a way to lose. In any case, the game's live on B365 so maybe there's something interesting there (live updates in www.kpv.fi and my twitter account). Despite the low total line I'm not interested in the over for obvious reasons.

GBK - TP-47 48 22 30
o/u 2.5: 58 42

Very evenly matched teams and while I rate GBK to be slightly better there's not enough value in -0,25 that it would be worth the bother. Nothing interesting in the total either.

PS Kemi - OPS 76 14 10
o/u 2.5: 66 34

OPS has been Kemi's boogeyman this year but those games were played in Oulu, now Kemi will get to play in their home field where they've again won almost all of their games (only the ACK game remains as a sore spot, and even then injuries were a big part of the loss). This still won't be easy for Kemi though, even with the defections OPS still possesses many talented and experienced players, and the last three games have showed that they've definitely not given up.

FC YPA - AC Kajaani 55 22 23
o/u 2.5: 56 44

You could argue that AC Kajaani has better players than YPA so in that light -0,75 is awful lot to pay for purely on motivational advantage. There is also the form though, YPA has been going from win to win (but their performance was not that good against OLS) while AC Kajaani has struggled against all kinds of teams. AC Kajaani has had a few overs lately which was almost unheard of in the midsummer, and as YPA must look for a win I was keenly eyeing the over. However, the asian odds don't offer any value so you'd have to use the european bookies.

PS Kemi - OPS -1,5 54% 1,98 4/10 Sbobet

13.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 13.9

JBK - PK-37 58 20 22
o/u 2.5: 63 37

JBK has been quite overrated in these games against lesser opposition and it's again the case as the line is -0,75. They've probably been slightly more impressive in terms of being able to challenge stronger teams but the fact remains that only two points separate these teams. However, that does not really make PK-37 any more interesting. They have some player issues and they've been pretty awful at away games not to mention that their form is more of the same level too. I'll take a chance with the over though, both desperately need to win because the third worst team in Kakkonen resides in the Southern group, and they have 22 points so neither team won't do much with a draw.

JBK - PK-37 O2.75 59% 1,78 4/10 Sbobet

7.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 7.9

Previews at 17:30 local time, KPV starts earlier but nothing of interest there in betting sense (maybe over, because PK-37 has been pretty broken defensively lately and they themselves desperately need points).

KPV - PK-37 67 18 15
o/u 2.5: 62 38

OLS - FC YPA 7 13 80
o/u 2.5: 60 40

Table tells enough about the motivation here, OLS is practically relegated while YPA is desperately chasing Kemi. OLS season has been a neverending nightmare and I can't say I expect this game to be any different. They've remained competitive in terms of not being blown out that often but YPA is at full strength and in such a great form lately especially defensively that seeing the absolutely awful OLS offense score would be a huge surprise. Just like yesterday I have some reservations about a one goal win for YPA as OLS certainly likes their one goal losses, so a correct score of 0-1 could worth a try if you're going for all-inclusive approach. OLS scoring troubles are self-explanatory if you look at the table so I'm not even remotely interested in over 3.25 as it in all likelihood means YPA team total at 3.25.

AC Kajaani - TP-47 61 22 17
o/u 2.5: 48 52

AC Kajaani has really fallen apart after it became evident that they won't be able to catch PS Kemi. That said, they still possess a ridiculously talented squad for this level in addition to a great coach so I'm not particularly excited about TP-47 +0,75 neither on hunch nor hat estimation levels. TP-47 had a great stretch of games in mid July to mid August where they pulled themselves out of the relegation battle. Since then they've had two little bit weaker games, but it has to be said OPS away from home and PS Kemi are probably the toughest games imaginable. The disgustingly defensive-orientated TP-47 that was seen against OPS is still fresh in mind so I'm willing to try under today considering the opponent is AC Kajaani, who love their low-scoring games. And even outside that OPS match, TP-47 has been a pretty low-scoring team too.

AC Kajaani - TP-47 U2.5 52% 2,04 2/10 Sbobet
OLS - FC YPA -1,5 2 58% 1,86 5/10 188Bet

6.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 6.9

GBK - OPS 52 21 27
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Had to skip Wednesday's GBK game as I couldn't have resisted the home team then, and as it turns out they did play good but luck, motivation or similar things made YPA the winner so nothing of interest was lost there. Hunch is heavily towards GBK, they probably possess a slightly better squad than OPS after the away team's cost cutting measures were implemented and OPS has had some disgustingly bad away performances apart from one stretch in July. However, OPS does still have plenty of quality left especially in their defense so I would have hoped for much better odds for GBK than the lousy ~1,85 so I'm going to have to skip the handicap.

PS Kemi - JBK 85 10 5
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Both teams with big stakes in this game so motivation won't be an issue. PS Kemi has been pretty much automatic against these weaker teams and I can't see anything other than that today either. JBK has still continued to be competitive such as beating AC Kajaani (though they're really out of form right now) and holding YPA level until the last ten minutes, and as they rarely get blown out one goal win is certainly something that I'm afraid of. However, PS Kemi has shown impressive form and more importantly goalscoring power after the arrival of Jovovic, so the combination of traditionally the best home team (and probably the overall best too) playing against the third or second worst team is enough for me as the handicap is not that high at -1,75.

PS Kemi - JBK -1,75 1 62% 1,81 6/10 188Bet

5.9.2014

FIN U19 vs Greece

Gk
Lauri Jylhä FC Honka 
Miikka Mujunen FC Lahti
 
Df
Alex Antikainen HJK
Sebastian Dolivo HJK
Niklas Friberg ÅIFK
Alex Lehtinen HJK
Simo Majander Sudet
Juho Pirttijoki FC Haka
 
Mf
Niklas Blomqvist TPS
Fredrik Lassas HJK
Tuomas Lähdesmäki SJK
Anselmi Nurmela AC Oulu
Waltteri Peltola TPS
Petteri Pietola HJK
 
Str
Elias Ahde SJK
Saku Savolainen KuPS
Kevin Larsson FF Jaro
Ilmari Ylönen KäPa 

As usual, HJK here in general means Klubi04 and Honka is Pallohonka, TPS players come from Åbo IFK.