4.10.2014

KTP´s promotion run 2014 - kind of a failure in the end

Soccerway:

MATCHES

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 4.10

OPS - PK-37 68 17 15
o/u 2.5: 69 31

Certainly strange to see this one offered live so live tweets will be available as usual. PK-37 has been getting just destroyed in their away games lately and OPS has still been a pretty good home team so on a hunch level I'm interested in the -0,75 offered for OPS. The total line is just too high at 3.25 so not going to get involved pregame on that.

GBK - JBK 56 19 25
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Bookies have disappointingly caught a whiff of JBK's true level but I think there's still a tiny amount of value left in GBK. GBK did not leave the best impression last week against OLS but they possess a much better team than JBK who might feel equally deflated now that their relegation has been confirmed. In any case, they did not display much last week either against TP-47 when they still were playing for something. Over looks very appealing despite JBK not being the most high-scoring team around, later rounds have been more entertaining in terms of goals (and last round especially) and the line is acceptably low at 2.75.

FC YPA - PS Kemi 33 21 46
o/u 2.5: 68 32

AC Kajaani - OLS 70 18 12
o/u 2.5: 58 42

TP-47 - KPV 48 22 30
o/u 2.5: 64 36

GBK - JBK O2.75 65% 1,77 5/10 188Bet
OPS - PK-37 -0,75 1% 64,5% 1,68 4/10 188Bet
GBK - JBK -0,5 1 56% 1,83 1/10 188Bet

29.9.2014

Ykkönen and Kakkonen - What's left of interest


Ykkönen and Kakkonen final round to take place on Saturday 4 October. 

Ykkönen (16.00): KTP-JIPPO; Ilves-Viikingit; HIFK-Jazz; JJK-Oulu; Haka-PK35
Kakkonen (14.00): GrIFK-SoVo; SalPa-Klubi04; EIF-Espoo; Pallohonka-BK46; KäPa-Gnistan; Lahti2-Myllypuro; MP-JäPS; PKKU-Kultsu; Futura-KuFu; Viikkarit-Atlantis; VIFK-Sporting; Hämeenlinna-TPV; Kerho07-ÅIFK; Kissat-Iirot; Masku-Närpes; OPS-PK37; GBK-JBK; YPA-Kemi; Kajaani-OLS; TP47-KPV

In Ykkönen Jazz (25p) confirmed their place on Ykkönen for the next season yesterday while JIPPO (19p) will be relegated with Viikingit (6p). On the other hand, KTP (49p, goals +24) is very close to screw up big time. They could've confirmed promotion to Veikkausliiga good time ago, but instead they've lost three games in a row and collected only 7 points from the last 8 matches. They still have an easy task ahead as they face JIPPO home on the last round and with a win they'll confirm promotion. JIPPO is currently the second weakest team in Ykkönen (arguable even weaker than Viikingit and thus the weakest) and they have nothing to play for. HIFK (47p +31) collides with Jazz at home and PK35 (46p +18) has Haka away. Also second place might bring a promotion if one of the Veikkausliiga teams will not be granted league licence for 2015. If several clubs would not be granted licence, the next one in line after Ykkönen 2nd would be relegated Veikkausliiga team (very likely TPS) followed with Ykkönen 3rd. With Honka there's a reasonable high probability for that happening and MyPa has also reported bad financial problems. I said "might bring promotion" as big shots in cabinets have left another option for themselves and may choose not to promote any team but to have less than 12 teams in Veikkausliiga next season. Probability for that option to take place is greater if the league licence will be rejected close to the new season, i.e. in March. 

All Kakkonen group winners and thus teams that will play two-legged promotion play-offs on 12 and 18 October have been known for some time now (Atlantis-EIF; Kemi-VIFK). Winners of both pairs will earn a spot to Ykkönen for 2015. It should be noted that if one or more clubs will be denied Veikkausliiga licence for 2015, that will also affect Kakkonen as extra spot to Ykkönen might open. That would go to a team that lost promotion play-off and collected the most points (followed by goal difference) during regular season. With one round to go situation is following: Atlantis 62p +43; Kemi 62p +41; EIF 62p +32 and; VIFK 53p +23.  Also most of the relegated teams have been decided before the final round. Espoo, SoVo (Kakkonen Southern), Sporting, Hämeenlinna (Kakkonen Western), OLS, PK37, JBK (Kakkonen Northern) and Viikkarit (Kakkonen Eastern). There's only one undecided relegation spot left in Kakkonen Itäinen. It's going to be either KuFu (26 games, 30p -24), Kultsu (26games, 31p -18) or Lahti2 (25 games, 31p +0). Lahti2 plays today against Atlantis away and on Saturday home against Myllypuro; KuFu has an away match against Futura and; Kultsu plays away against PKKU. At this point it must be noted that it's more of a rule that there will be cabinet decisions regarding Kakkonen spots. Winners of Kolmonen might reject promotion or other non-relegated Kakkonen teams might be forced to retreat their spot. Also if a Veikkausliiga team will be denied a league licence that might open extra spot in Kakkonen. Rules regarding who would be granted Kakkonen spot in that case are extremely unclear and open for different interpretations. Often one of the relegated teams have been given one of those extra spots. 

Antti / akaa89.blogabet.com/

27.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.9

KPV - OPS 48 22 30
o/u 2.5: 60 40

KPV did beat PK-37 convincingly few weeks ago but otherwise their performances have been pretty anemic. OPS' situation is a little bit better, after their key Brazilians departed they managed to win two games and caused some trouble for PS Kemi (at least numerically). Despite what their report says, OPS was very unlucky to not grab at least a draw against JBK last week as JBK was very lethal in their finishing while OPS squandered numerous excellent chances. However, even when taking into account the acceptable form of OPS there's not enough value in +0,5 to make it interesting (a very definite lean still). After all, there's quite many players in their line-up that are mostly just Kolmonen players. Over looks again interesting, neither team has been that goal rich if we look at the whole season, but lately both have looked much more over-like in terms of their performances and results.

KPV - OPS O2.75 56% 1,94 4/10 188Bet

26.9.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.9

OLS - GBK 24 20 56
o/u 2.5: 65 35

A very speedy preview for this friday night lights game, which in all likelihood will be played in pretty awful conditions. Two motivationless teams and it's tough to find any value on the handicap. GBK is naturally the better team but I'm not too comfortable with the -0,75 line. However, I'll be on the lookout for anything interesting in the live. Over is a different story, both teams have reached three goals regularly and I wouldn't expect either team to be too concerned with defending.

OLS - GBK O2.75 61% 1,73 5/10 Sbobet