HauPa - PS Kemi -1,25 2 64% 1,79 9/10 Sbobet
HauPa - PS Kemi O3.25 64% 1,90 9/10 Sbobet
FC Santa Claus - TP-47 -0,25 2 59% 2,05 8/10 Sbobet
FC Santa Claus - TP-47 O3.0 59% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet
FC Santa Claus - TP-47 27 20 53
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Have to say I'm a bit puzzled with these odds, PS Kemi visited Rovaniemi just a while ago and their odds barely scratched 1,70 and TP-47, who are not that far behind PS Kemi are priced at 2,00. Both teams have had long pauses lately so the forms are a question mark, but as said before TP-47's real quality is somewhere behind GBK, PK-37 and PS Kemi, and on the other side Santa Claus would likely be deservedly knee deep in the relegation battle if it were not for the Warkaus JK's antics. But as of now, there's still the tiny chance that HauPa will somehow manage to string up a couple of wins so there should be no question about motivation on either side. With totals I'd lean more towards under, as Santa have been quite defense-oriented during the past few months and TP-47 is certainly not among the highest scoring teams this year.
HauPa - PS Kemi 10 13 77
o/u 2.5: 77 23
This is mainly a bet against HauPa, who have been completely outmatched in their last few games. Against PK-37 they still had some life left, but after that it hasn't looked pretty for them as TP-47 and a heavily undermanned GBK side easily dominated them. And last week it was KPV's, whose last win against anyone worth of note was from June 20, turn to beat them. PS Kemi's away woes have been well-documented and their promotion dream is more like a pipe dream, though they do have two h2h matches against AC Kajaani left. However, the fact is that after midsummer they've played as good as anyone apart from AC Kajaani, with their PK-37 loss being the only game where they played poorly. The over should be an equally good opportunity as PS Kemi's foreigners are still in scorching hot form and if there's one thing HauPa has been able to do better this year it's goalscoring (defending has of course been a completely different story).
30.8.2012
29.8.2012
AC Oulu - OPS 29.8.
A few words about today's match before bidding farewell to Kakkonen's lined games tomorrow. The return of Nurmos is important for AC Oulu's defense, because in spite of his young age he has been almost as important as Hietanen in the defense line. Ojala importance is a so-so, as T. Siira has for the most of time been an adequate replacement for him. OPS' new players have obviously created a huge buzz, but according to the KooTeePee reports and what I saw against JIPPO they are not any better than the previous guys who were kicked out in the middle of the season. However, the most important thing is that they seem to be a step ahead of the likes of Huovinen, Juntunen and the juniors, who honestly have no skills to play in Ykkönen level so the overall effect for the team is positive (and for Finnish football, it's obviously the opposite).
AC Oulu has a really bad loss against HIFK from last week, but they've been a completely different team in away games so I wouldn't put too much weight on it when looking at this game. Even their two away wins (JIPPO, KooTeePee) have been quite lucky, but when playing at home they've even dominated RoPS for a one half in that 0-0 game, and have, for the most part, deserved their unbeaten (outside the cabinet) home record. OPS' new dawn is still a bit up in the air; KooTeePee win wasn't that convincing and JIPPO looked really uninterested and perhaps not motivated against them. AC Oulu is obviously the better team, but betting on them at -0,5 line is not interesting at all even when keeping in mind that OPS has no local supporters other than the player families; in fact OPS-jp would be a more appealing selection with these odds if forced to pick anything in the 1x2/handicap markets.
The odds for over have dropped considerably today, and if OPS continues to play in the same way as they did against JIPPO, where they fielded a 3 man defense, the over would definitely look good. And even if they wouldn't, they'll probably not adapt bus tactics which in AC Oulu's case usually means goals (just check the results outside JIPPO, FC Hämeenlinna, HIFK). However, despite the midsummer slump of OPS dragging their averages down, OPS isn't that explosive offensively even on a good day. Seeing that the over-hyped Leandro Costa is Jaksic-level at best, the goods and the goals will again have to come from the individual talents of Ngambe x2, Ramirez and set-pieces, so all in all with the 1,81 offered for the over 2.5 I'd prefer waiting for a few minutes for the odds to rise.
AC Oulu has a really bad loss against HIFK from last week, but they've been a completely different team in away games so I wouldn't put too much weight on it when looking at this game. Even their two away wins (JIPPO, KooTeePee) have been quite lucky, but when playing at home they've even dominated RoPS for a one half in that 0-0 game, and have, for the most part, deserved their unbeaten (outside the cabinet) home record. OPS' new dawn is still a bit up in the air; KooTeePee win wasn't that convincing and JIPPO looked really uninterested and perhaps not motivated against them. AC Oulu is obviously the better team, but betting on them at -0,5 line is not interesting at all even when keeping in mind that OPS has no local supporters other than the player families; in fact OPS-jp would be a more appealing selection with these odds if forced to pick anything in the 1x2/handicap markets.
The odds for over have dropped considerably today, and if OPS continues to play in the same way as they did against JIPPO, where they fielded a 3 man defense, the over would definitely look good. And even if they wouldn't, they'll probably not adapt bus tactics which in AC Oulu's case usually means goals (just check the results outside JIPPO, FC Hämeenlinna, HIFK). However, despite the midsummer slump of OPS dragging their averages down, OPS isn't that explosive offensively even on a good day. Seeing that the over-hyped Leandro Costa is Jaksic-level at best, the goods and the goals will again have to come from the individual talents of Ngambe x2, Ramirez and set-pieces, so all in all with the 1,81 offered for the over 2.5 I'd prefer waiting for a few minutes for the odds to rise.
21.8.2012
FIN U18 vs Switzerland early Sept 2012
Looks like the FA read closely the fan forums
Ville Viljala, JJK
Frédéric Gotte, AS Monaco
Rasmus Kautto, HJK
Hampus Holmgren, VIFK
Joel Mero, FC Lahti
Ville-Valtteri Starck, TPS
Saku Kvist, FC KooTeePee
Lucas Gabrielsson, TPS
Glen Kamara, Arsenal FC
Simon Skrabb, FF Jaro
Teppo Syrjänen, TPV
Toni Viljanen, FC Inter
Jerry Voutilainen, KuPS
Riku Sjöroos, TPS
Matej Hradecky, TPS
Joonas Jokinen, Wycombe Wanderers
Mikko Viitikko, HJK
Youness Rahimi, FC Honka
Ville Viljala, JJK
Frédéric Gotte, AS Monaco
Rasmus Kautto, HJK
Hampus Holmgren, VIFK
Joel Mero, FC Lahti
Ville-Valtteri Starck, TPS
Saku Kvist, FC KooTeePee
Lucas Gabrielsson, TPS
Glen Kamara, Arsenal FC
Simon Skrabb, FF Jaro
Teppo Syrjänen, TPV
Toni Viljanen, FC Inter
Jerry Voutilainen, KuPS
Riku Sjöroos, TPS
Matej Hradecky, TPS
Joonas Jokinen, Wycombe Wanderers
Mikko Viitikko, HJK
Youness Rahimi, FC Honka
20.8.2012
18.8.2012
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 18.8.
HauPa - GBK 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 72 28
GBK is suffering from a severe player shortage, because in addition to their long-term injured players (T. Wentin, Halonen, Smith) they have three more players suspended (Jylhä, Svenlin, Roiko), who all were more or less regular starters. And if that wasn't enough, they have had huge problems with HauPa everytime they've played against them, in fact it isn't that much of a stretch to say that HauPa has been the better team or at least equal in every modern era encounter these two have had. However, even with all the sidelined players and not so good history I think having HauPa as a favorite would be just too much. The loss of Räisänen to FC Dreeverit in the off-season has obviously been an issue since HauPa's defense is just a shadow of what it was last year. Considering that they let in almost double the amount of goals last season when Räisänen wasn't playing, that probably doesn't come as that big of a surprise when keeping in mind that they didn't bring any noteworthy replacements in. In the last few weeks HauPa has been somewhat competitive, and they look to have no significant injuries apart from Paldan, who has somehow scored three goals, and Reinikainen (questionable), who has been a regular starter in the center of the defense. GBK does have that infamous Warkaus JK loss in their recent games, but overall I can't say that they've played any worse than HauPa during the past few weeks. For all their fighting spirit, HauPa just doesn't possess enough quality for this level, so even at home it would be really difficult to find value with the current odds.
o/u 2.5: 72 28
GBK is suffering from a severe player shortage, because in addition to their long-term injured players (T. Wentin, Halonen, Smith) they have three more players suspended (Jylhä, Svenlin, Roiko), who all were more or less regular starters. And if that wasn't enough, they have had huge problems with HauPa everytime they've played against them, in fact it isn't that much of a stretch to say that HauPa has been the better team or at least equal in every modern era encounter these two have had. However, even with all the sidelined players and not so good history I think having HauPa as a favorite would be just too much. The loss of Räisänen to FC Dreeverit in the off-season has obviously been an issue since HauPa's defense is just a shadow of what it was last year. Considering that they let in almost double the amount of goals last season when Räisänen wasn't playing, that probably doesn't come as that big of a surprise when keeping in mind that they didn't bring any noteworthy replacements in. In the last few weeks HauPa has been somewhat competitive, and they look to have no significant injuries apart from Paldan, who has somehow scored three goals, and Reinikainen (questionable), who has been a regular starter in the center of the defense. GBK does have that infamous Warkaus JK loss in their recent games, but overall I can't say that they've played any worse than HauPa during the past few weeks. For all their fighting spirit, HauPa just doesn't possess enough quality for this level, so even at home it would be really difficult to find value with the current odds.
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