31.5.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 31.5
Kerho 07 - TP-47 -0,5 1 58% 1,86 3,5/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - TP-47 O3.25 61% 1,81 7/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - TP-47 58 18 24
o/u 2.5: 75 25
Against Tervarit, Kerho 07 certainly looked like a team that deserves their shared top position, though the quality of their opposition should obviously be taken in account. Kerho's preview talks about the possibility of Caumo returning, so if their line-up is otherwise intact I'd be very tempted to play them with 1.90 type odds. TP-47's quality is still a little bit of a mystery, they took care of the poor teams and while they were better than their opponents the games were not decided until very late in the 2nd half. Winning VIFK has proven impossible for other teams so far, but TP-47 easily beat them, and in their two recent losses against YPA and PS Kemi they weren't that far behind. However, still in the overall picture, half of the teams (YPA, Kemi, VIFK, Kerho 07, GBK) are probably better than TP-47, but the line-ups might again decide whether the odds for Kerho 07 are enough. Much tastier option would be the over, TP-47's matches have continued to be goalfests which is still somewhat surprising, though the preseason was quite similar so maybe it's not just variance in play. While Kerho 07 will likely not generate so many easy chances that they had against Tervarit, I don't see why they wouldn't have a fairly good chance to continue their over streak when playing against over-like teams. e: TP-47 is missing some players, who are not necessarily their key players, but it's enough to play SJK/2 at the moment.
27.5.2013
Veikkausliiga odds May 29th
We just played a round, didnt we?
| Finland : Veikkausliiga - Odds From -1Bet.com- | ||||||||||
| Time GMT+0 | Betting event | Current | Open | Total Line | Over/Under | |||||
| spread | odds | spread | odds | current | open | type | current | open | ||
| Finland : Veikkausliiga - 29/05/2013 | ||||||||||
16:30  | Honka Espoo | -0.5 | 1.920 | -0.5 | 1.920 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.050 | 2.050 |
| Lahti | +0.5 | 2.000 | +0.5 | 2.000 | under | 1.850 | 1.850 | |||
 | ||||||||||
| 16:30 | JJK Jyvaskyla | +0.75 | 2.000 | +0.75 | 1.980 | 2.75 | 2.75 | over | 2.110 | 2.110 |
| HJK Helsinki | -0.75 | 1.920 | -0.75 | 1.940 | under | 1.800 | 1.800 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | KuPS | 0 | 1.850 | 0 | 1.870 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.060 | 2.060 |
| Inter Turku | 0 | 2.080 | 0 | 2.050 | under | 1.840 | 1.840 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | RoPS Rovaniemi | 0 | 2.020 | 0 | 2.020 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.050 | 2.050 |
| Mypa | 0 | 1.900 | 0 | 1.900 | under | 1.850 | 1.850 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | TPS Turku | -0.75 | 1.970 | -0.75 | 1.970 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.060 | 2.060 |
| IFK Mariehamn | +0.75 | 1.950 | +0.75 | 1.950 | under | 1.840 | 1.840 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Vaasa VPS | -0.5 | 2.080 | -0.5 | 2.020 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.180 | 2.180 |
| Jaro | +0.5 | 1.850 | +0.5 | 1.900 | under | 1.750 | 1.750 | |||
26.5.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.5
VIFK - FC YPA +0,5 2 61% 1,85 6/10 Sbobet
VIFK - FC YPA 39 21 40
o/u 2.5: 68 32
VIFK continues to be a tough team to beat, but for at least until 20.6 I'm not taking them 100% seriously when considering the promotion candidates of this year's Kakkonen. Because it's so early in the season I could be horribly wrong with that sentiment, but I don't find it surprising that they haven't beaten any of the good teams (Kerho 07, PS Kemi, TP-47) they've faced so far. YPA suffered from a poor attitude in the first half against KPV, and while they didn't play that good in the second half either they still managed to scrape the win. This time there should be no danger of underestimating the opponent, so a better team combined with a better form means that I don't have any reservations in rating the visitors as small favorites. VIFK dislike aside, last week's VIFK-PS Kemi was pretty similar to this, so it would not be totally unreasonable to consider VIFK as tiny favorites either. Total matches last week too with VIFK being a clear under team and YPA likely the opposite of that.
Unavailable:
GBK - ORPa 80 12 8
o/u 2.5: 72 28
GBK folded like a Dressman suit in the second half against Kerho 07, but I'd expect that to just be a temporary misstep for them, so this should be a very easy win for the hosts as the class difference is massive in GBK's favor. ORPa didn't play that bad against PK-37, but scoring goals proved again to be too difficult for them. Some of it could be attributed to bad luck, but the fact is that ORPa just doesn't have enough quality in their team so it doesn't come as a surprise that they keep missing the chances that they are given. ORP missed Ahonen and Tenkula from their last match, of whom the first one could be considered a key player. GBK's cb Corcoran is still out, otherwise they are at full strength. ORP's defense has been rock-solid so far with their experienced gk Rönkkö in particular being in very good form, so big handicaps or total lines might not look appealing in that light. However, with the exception of SJK/2 they've only faced offensively challenged teams so far so the stats are a bit misleading in this case, and after all the good efforts each one of their matches against a superior opponent has still resulted in a loss.
TP-47 - KPV 69 16 15
o/u 2.5: 71 29
Middle table vs bottom. TP-47 took a routine win against Tervarit and as KPV is a similar level team, TP-47 should have a reasonably good chance to grab the three points again. According to their preview, TP-47 will have a full squad available. KPV almost surprised YPA on Monday, and what makes that impressive was the fact that they were playing without two extremely important players in Myntti and Watson. The odds for the home win are lower than they were in Tervarit match, which I disagree with because I'd say KPV is slightly better team at the moment. However, unless the line is -1.75 I wouldn't bother to play KPV, as they are still a team that mostly deserves their poor record (1 point in six matches). Goalfests have continued in TP-47's games, so with KPV's defense being very suspect against anyone other than the bottom three so I'd take a chance with 3.25 if it's available.
VIFK - FC YPA 39 21 40
o/u 2.5: 68 32
VIFK continues to be a tough team to beat, but for at least until 20.6 I'm not taking them 100% seriously when considering the promotion candidates of this year's Kakkonen. Because it's so early in the season I could be horribly wrong with that sentiment, but I don't find it surprising that they haven't beaten any of the good teams (Kerho 07, PS Kemi, TP-47) they've faced so far. YPA suffered from a poor attitude in the first half against KPV, and while they didn't play that good in the second half either they still managed to scrape the win. This time there should be no danger of underestimating the opponent, so a better team combined with a better form means that I don't have any reservations in rating the visitors as small favorites. VIFK dislike aside, last week's VIFK-PS Kemi was pretty similar to this, so it would not be totally unreasonable to consider VIFK as tiny favorites either. Total matches last week too with VIFK being a clear under team and YPA likely the opposite of that.
Unavailable:
GBK - ORPa 80 12 8
o/u 2.5: 72 28
GBK folded like a Dressman suit in the second half against Kerho 07, but I'd expect that to just be a temporary misstep for them, so this should be a very easy win for the hosts as the class difference is massive in GBK's favor. ORPa didn't play that bad against PK-37, but scoring goals proved again to be too difficult for them. Some of it could be attributed to bad luck, but the fact is that ORPa just doesn't have enough quality in their team so it doesn't come as a surprise that they keep missing the chances that they are given. ORP missed Ahonen and Tenkula from their last match, of whom the first one could be considered a key player. GBK's cb Corcoran is still out, otherwise they are at full strength. ORP's defense has been rock-solid so far with their experienced gk Rönkkö in particular being in very good form, so big handicaps or total lines might not look appealing in that light. However, with the exception of SJK/2 they've only faced offensively challenged teams so far so the stats are a bit misleading in this case, and after all the good efforts each one of their matches against a superior opponent has still resulted in a loss.
TP-47 - KPV 69 16 15
o/u 2.5: 71 29
Middle table vs bottom. TP-47 took a routine win against Tervarit and as KPV is a similar level team, TP-47 should have a reasonably good chance to grab the three points again. According to their preview, TP-47 will have a full squad available. KPV almost surprised YPA on Monday, and what makes that impressive was the fact that they were playing without two extremely important players in Myntti and Watson. The odds for the home win are lower than they were in Tervarit match, which I disagree with because I'd say KPV is slightly better team at the moment. However, unless the line is -1.75 I wouldn't bother to play KPV, as they are still a team that mostly deserves their poor record (1 point in six matches). Goalfests have continued in TP-47's games, so with KPV's defense being very suspect against anyone other than the bottom three so I'd take a chance with 3.25 if it's available.
25.5.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 25.5
Tervarit - Kerho 07 O3.0 59% 1,82 4,5/10 Sbobet
Tervarit - Kerho 07 -0,75 2 55% 1,93 1,5/10 Sbobet
Plenty of Tervarit players disappearing again for various reasons (Blomberg, Vilppola, Pikkarainen, Tervo, Lehtiniemi, Paldan, Makowski), but some do return (Festus, Kuusirati, Ahonpää, Puurunen). However, just by glancing their line-up it doesn't look that bad, so I've cut some stakes with SJK/2 bet, even though SJK/2 is playing a pretty good team themselves. On hunch over isn't tasty at all, because it's not a coincidence that Tervarit has scored 3 goals so far. To make matters worse for the over, Tervarit defense looked ok vs GBK, ORP and KPV, but 3.0 line is hard to resist.
Tervarit - Kerho 07 21 19 60
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Nothing new for Tervarit in Tornio last week, adequate performance but yet another defeat. Some players, such as Tervo, Pikkarainen and Festus, look to be returning, while others like Rova and Ahonpää remain missing. In any case, other than Ogbuefi there doesn't seem to be any players that could be considered key players at the moment so any improvement would probably be marginal. If the last 15 minutes in TP-47 - Tervarit were strange, the same could be said about Kerho 07's last game. GBK is a very good team, but yet again Kerho 07 showed that they can hang with the best of them as they turned a 0-2 deficit into 3-2, which in the end might have been a slightly undeserved win. Kerho 07's preview is full of vapid hand-waving again, so until it's one hour before kick-off it's not that easy to estimate their level. But on paper (vs GBK), Simpanen, Aalto, Goldberg, Muurimäki, Jans and maybe Penninkangas are by my understanding the key players of the lot. Tervarit hasn't shown anything so far to warrant anything more than a 9-10. position in the ranking, while Kerho 07 is likely very near YPA, PS Kemi, GBK and VIFK in terms of class, so the away team is obviously a big favorite in this game. Just by hunch the current odds (1,67 to 1,80) for Kerho 07 don't really feel that playable due to the uncertainties surrounding their line-up, and Tervarit in their current form is an unbettable team, if that is even a word. Despite the TP-47 outburst, Tervarit should be at least a slightly underish team, while Kerho 07 is slighty over-like, so 3.25 would be skippable.
Unavailable:
PS Kemi - PK-37 73 15 12
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PS Kemi managed to yet again choke an away game, this time letting two of the poorest strikers in the group, Lombo and Johansson, to score the equalizing goals in a 2-2 draw against VIFK. Truth to be told, the draw was probably a deserved result if the reports are to be believed. Two of the missing players from VIFK match, Ikäläinen and Spivack should return so they should have the best possible squad available. Even though they won, PK-37 did not play well against ORPa, who are just as bad as the two bottom dwellers KPV and Tervarit. Class difference is massive in PS Kemi's favor, and they usually play much better in their home games so I'd expect PS Kemi to have no trouble with PK-37. However, the odds for the home win look so low that it's unlikely the handicap will offer anything interesting. PK-37 is still a couple of steps above the bottom, so I couldn't really justify the 1.25 level odds as PS Kemi hasn't been that dominant so far. PS Kemi definitely has the necessary potential to rack up similar numbers as YPA did against PK-37 (5-0), but again the total line looks to be too high to have any value in it, even if PK-37 looks to be having some trouble with lack of goalkeepers.
Tervarit - Kerho 07 -0,75 2 55% 1,93 1,5/10 Sbobet
Plenty of Tervarit players disappearing again for various reasons (Blomberg, Vilppola, Pikkarainen, Tervo, Lehtiniemi, Paldan, Makowski), but some do return (Festus, Kuusirati, Ahonpää, Puurunen). However, just by glancing their line-up it doesn't look that bad, so I've cut some stakes with SJK/2 bet, even though SJK/2 is playing a pretty good team themselves. On hunch over isn't tasty at all, because it's not a coincidence that Tervarit has scored 3 goals so far. To make matters worse for the over, Tervarit defense looked ok vs GBK, ORP and KPV, but 3.0 line is hard to resist.
Tervarit - Kerho 07 21 19 60
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Nothing new for Tervarit in Tornio last week, adequate performance but yet another defeat. Some players, such as Tervo, Pikkarainen and Festus, look to be returning, while others like Rova and Ahonpää remain missing. In any case, other than Ogbuefi there doesn't seem to be any players that could be considered key players at the moment so any improvement would probably be marginal. If the last 15 minutes in TP-47 - Tervarit were strange, the same could be said about Kerho 07's last game. GBK is a very good team, but yet again Kerho 07 showed that they can hang with the best of them as they turned a 0-2 deficit into 3-2, which in the end might have been a slightly undeserved win. Kerho 07's preview is full of vapid hand-waving again, so until it's one hour before kick-off it's not that easy to estimate their level. But on paper (vs GBK), Simpanen, Aalto, Goldberg, Muurimäki, Jans and maybe Penninkangas are by my understanding the key players of the lot. Tervarit hasn't shown anything so far to warrant anything more than a 9-10. position in the ranking, while Kerho 07 is likely very near YPA, PS Kemi, GBK and VIFK in terms of class, so the away team is obviously a big favorite in this game. Just by hunch the current odds (1,67 to 1,80) for Kerho 07 don't really feel that playable due to the uncertainties surrounding their line-up, and Tervarit in their current form is an unbettable team, if that is even a word. Despite the TP-47 outburst, Tervarit should be at least a slightly underish team, while Kerho 07 is slighty over-like, so 3.25 would be skippable.
Unavailable:
PS Kemi - PK-37 73 15 12
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PS Kemi managed to yet again choke an away game, this time letting two of the poorest strikers in the group, Lombo and Johansson, to score the equalizing goals in a 2-2 draw against VIFK. Truth to be told, the draw was probably a deserved result if the reports are to be believed. Two of the missing players from VIFK match, Ikäläinen and Spivack should return so they should have the best possible squad available. Even though they won, PK-37 did not play well against ORPa, who are just as bad as the two bottom dwellers KPV and Tervarit. Class difference is massive in PS Kemi's favor, and they usually play much better in their home games so I'd expect PS Kemi to have no trouble with PK-37. However, the odds for the home win look so low that it's unlikely the handicap will offer anything interesting. PK-37 is still a couple of steps above the bottom, so I couldn't really justify the 1.25 level odds as PS Kemi hasn't been that dominant so far. PS Kemi definitely has the necessary potential to rack up similar numbers as YPA did against PK-37 (5-0), but again the total line looks to be too high to have any value in it, even if PK-37 looks to be having some trouble with lack of goalkeepers.
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