2012 1x2 distribution

Well, as the saying goes the years and seasons are not brothers! These seem to vary strongly from season to season and it was only a couple of seasons ago when "home" won "away" not until the very last round of Veikkausliiga. This season´s home win percentage is record high 52% and the question is if the home advantage has increased or is it variance? If there is a reason for the increase I would like to know why. 2011 the distribution was 47-27-26 so what we missed a lot were the equalizing goals from the away teams.

This raises the eternal question about the validity of any sample and the discussion will go on. Are any of the data  from season 2010 useful anymore? Is there a trend? Are there 60 % home wins next season?


There were significantly less goals this season at Veikkausliiga compared to 599 goals on previous season. I for once would had wanted to see some of the narrow TPS 1-0 wins to end up in a draw instead.

Most goals were seen at Kakkonen South, but partly there is LoPa to blame who earned only one point throughout the season. Needless to say that the 2-2 draw away at BK-46 was a costly one, nearly as bad as the cup game on neutral ground vs JäPS who won the Eastern group in the end. At that time bookies got a narrow escape as they offered a -0.5 line for JäPS.  (JäPS won after extra time, a fair line would had been around -2). LoPa´s games produced 179 goals with the avg of 6.63 per game.

The % for draws at Kakkonen varies a lot from season and group, but you do not have to be a rocket scientist to see that the high-looking odds of 4.5  for a draw often offer no value. At match totals the line of 2.5 is rarely offered and you can see why.

2012	Matches	1	x	2	Goals	Avg	U 2.5	O 2.5
Veikkausliiga	198	52	20,7	27,3	535	2,70	51	49
Ykkönen	135	45,9	22,2	31,9	365	2,70	50	50
2 South	135	52,6	14,1	33,3	522	3,87	31	69
2 East	135	45,9	20	34,1	448	3,32	31	69
2 West	135	42,2	17,8	40	469	3,47	36	64
2 North	108	42,6	20,4	37	362	3,35	33	67