League cup TPS - HJK at 14.00 CET

To show you what the conditions really are, here is a pic of the match taken from the excellent blog "Puoliaika" by Mr  Lari Vesander;



EDIT FT 1-2.

EDIT : Live update. HJK have dominated and lead 0-1 at 43 Rafinha goal, but the matches at Turku tend to bit split in two halves and there is a reason to believe TPS can still make a match out of this. No live bets yet however, I am suffering of a poor live update service.

EDIT:Opening line-ups

TPS

1 TUOMALA Jani LC
4 JOVANOVIC Igor LC
6 NYBERG Jaakko LC
7 RÄHMÖNEN Sami LC
8 HEINIKANGAS Jarno LC
13 KOLEHMAINEN Toni LC
18 CLEAVER Chris LC
20 WUSU Babatunde LC
23 LÄHDE Juho LC
26 VIRTANEN Jani LC
27 SAARINEN Jesse LC

Subs:
3 MÄKINEN Kalle LC
11 ÄÄRITALO Mika LC
17 RISKI Roope LC
25 MÄKINEN Santeri LC
31 FERATI Alban LC
35 MOISANDER Henrik LC T


HJK

1 WALLÉN Ville LC
2 KANSIKAS Tuomas LC
4 KAMARA Mohamed LC
8 RAFINHA LC
10 MÄKELÄ Juho LC
13 KÄRKKÄINEN Pyry LC
14 WESTÖ Johannes LC
17 BAH Dawda LC
18 OJALA Juhani LC
21 SUMUSALO Mikko LC
24 ZENELI Erfan LC

Subs
12 VIANDER Jani LC
15 PELVAS Akseli LC
22 MOREN Valtteri LC
26 KIBONA Zakaria LC
27 REXHEPI Lum LC
28 RING Alexander LC
29 RAMADINGAYE David LC

TPS have Ääritalo on the bench, which means that at some point he will be substituted in and that will bring more attacking options for them. Both U21 players Jani Virtanen and Toni Kolehmainen will start. HJK have Ville Wallen again between the posts after the match-loser Viander having given a goal free for Inter´s Grot last week, Pelvas is on the bench and instead Juho Mäkelä will start as a lone striker. Erfan Zeneli is a surprise winger on the right, still there is no sight of Sebastian Sorsa who is a key player in the attacking department along with Dawba Bah. There are a couple or risky players in the TPS starting XI which make me stay clear of pre - match bets, but my plan is to wait and see. If I take something it will be TPS, unless my match reporter suggests otherwise.


The prices have moved into HJK direction, TPS 0 @ 2.17 - HJK 0 @ 1.75 now. I seriously doubt whether this is the right direction.

Edit: TPS 0 dropped from 2.2 --> 1.99 30 minutes before kick-off.

HJK will play outdoors for the first time this season, their performances are on a downward trend whereas things look more bright at TPS camp day after day. There is a big risk of a draw here and I will wait at least until the line-ups are published, and TPS have also been the most inconsistent team during a match so a live bet might be the best option here. Or a no bet.

I did take over 2.5 @ 2.14 yesterday, but naturally there are many facts that speak in favour of an under as well, and match totals are just a toss of coin according to many betting experts. EDIT: Decided to close this bet right after 1-1 goal, a draw was most likely before the game and it would suit them both. Some profit anyway in the back, u2.5 @ 2.42

An update will be published when I get the line-ups. Two players of each team played with Finland U21 on Wednesday away at Czech Republic and HJK also have gotten rid of two test players who were fielded against Inter Turku last Friday. TPS first choice gk Jukka Lehtovaara has been at a surgery, but he has not played any of the previous league cup matches either.

HJK will travel to Marbella on Sunday for a pre-season camp.

TPS - HJK

TPS: 3-3-3-3-1-3 ----------- HJK: 3-3-0-3-3-3

H2H:2-6-11. League 23.04.2009 HJK-TPS 2-2

EDIT:FT 1-1

Hot top-clash and a Veikkausliiga classic game awaits at TPS Veritas-stadion when the hosts meet the current leaders HJK who have a collected so far four points more than TPS. An extremely important match which TPS can not afford to lose if they want to keep their championship hopes in their own hands. TPS have been unbeaten in 8 of their last Veikkausliiga matches and have hit the form, but the same can be said also about HJK, who can add to that list an away win in Lithuania in an Europe League ql-game against Vetra.

TPS have full squad and they are confident ahead of the game, says Marko Rajamäki from TPS; ”We need full support from our supporters as HJK is the best team ever in Finland. We can not rely that they are more concentrated in european games as they have a big squad full of players hungry for success.”

TPS have no injury worries, the only distraction in the team being the rumours of the possible transfers of some of the U21-players out of TPS.

In the light of the history HJK has been on top, but TPS in this form is a big danger to anyone and a serious title-contender, especially if they do not lose on Sunday.

HJK away 0-1 win at Vetra on Thursday was greeted with big applauds, especially after the opponents for the next round were drawn at UEFA and the next possible match in the Europe League would be against ex-national coach Roy Hodgson´s Fulham. There is a chance that the thoughts and dreams of HJK are already in the european glory, but HJK coach will do his utmost to prevent that and try to keep the other teams in a distance also in the local league.

HJK are missing Paulus Roiha 3/0 and Tuomas Haapala 5/0, but as the replacements have been outstanding it has been no reason to worry for HJK.


TPS: 12 Jukka Lehtovaara 13/0 – 2 Iiro Aalto 13/0 – 18 Chris Cleaver 1/0 - 6 Jaakko Nyberg 13/2 - 7 Sami Rähmönen 14/0 – 8 Jarno Heinikangas 14/0 – 9 Mikko Manninen 13/0 – 10 Riku Riski 14/4 – 28 Mikko Paatelainen 14/3 – 20 Babatunde Wusu 13/5 - 21 Wayne Brown 14/3

Bench: 3 Kalle Mäkinen 0/0, 11 Mika Ääritalo 4/1, 17 Roope Riski 0/0, 19 Patrik Lomski 6/0, 22 Jesse Saarinen 0/0, 29 Yll Hoxha 4/0, 23 Juho Lähde 0/0, 24 Jani Aaltonen 0/0, 25 Santeri Mäkinen 0/0, 27 Tuomas Markkula 0/0, 31 Alban Ferati 0/0, 14 Kasper Hämäläinen 13/0, 1 Jani Tuomala (gk) 1/0, 13 Samu-Petteri Mäkelä 8/0, 5 Simo Valakari 7/0

Coach : Pasi Rautiainen - a HJK legend!



HJK: 1 Wille Wallén 14/0 – 3 Mikko Hauhia 13/0 – 5 Jukka Sauso 13/0 - 4 Mohamed Kamara 13/2 – 6 Cheyne Fowler 5/1 – 9 Sebastian Sorsa 14/4 – 10 Juho Mäkelä 14/4 - 13 Pyry Kärkkäinen 14/2 – 14 Valeri Popovits 12/3 – 17 Dawda Bah 14/3 – 20 Jukka Raitala 14/0

Bench: 2 Tuomas Kansikas 4/0, 12 Jani Viander (gk) 0/0, 21 Petri Oravainen 11/0, 26 Johannes Westö 2/0, 27 Mikko Sumusalo 1/0, 28 Nosh A Lody 0/0, 31 Akseli Pelvas 9/3, 32 Sami Salmi 0/0, 16 Jarno Parikka 14/3,, 8 Ville Taulo 4/0, 18 Juhani Ojala 2/0

Unavailable:15 Paulus Roiha 3/0, 7 Tuomas Haapala 5/0

Coach : Antti Muurinen

Bettingwise an interesting clash. Personally I believe that TPS is not a top team yet, but the HJK distraction of the european hopes must be taken into account. And HJK might be happy enough with a draw here to keep TPS 4 points away.

More analysis tomorrow.

Edit: This is tomorrow now, but it stays for me a no bet.