MuSa - SoVo 1-0

Despite me thinking the opposite. There were 6 - well actually 5 - players from PoPa to help out but this was not in my knowledge at the time of the pick of SoVo - 0,25 @ 2.09. the bet was mostly reasoned by the eyewitnesses match reports delivered to me, but of course, away game at Kakkonen is always a bit of worry if it involves travel and you have to hit the bus straight from the work.

A good question came from a Newsletter customer regarding if I knew about this help and was it included in the estimation, here is my answer;
***

A good point.

No, I was not sure of that and I would probably had skipped it. On the other hand PoPa reserves are pretty much Kakkonen level players, they help the bottom teams like MuSa, but they do not make MuSa a force.

This is a problem with looking for early prices at Kakkonen, both odds and team news come late if at all. If based on picks according to the rumours "there will be a lot of players from PoPa today perhaps" then you are as well in deep trouble when the unnamed players do not show up or are someone else than expected, it also happens.

However if you looked at the live odds they were on SoVo heavily throughout the match, and pretty much until the goal you could have bought MuSa + 0,5 @ 2 and make a profit.

Here is the minutes of the match from the FA;
http://tulospalvelu.palloliitto.hs.prewise.com/print.asp?id=19304&ser=43

MuSa players from the homepage
http://musansalama.fi/sivu.aspx?taso=1&id=238

Here is the news of the PoPa help from PoPa homepage;



"Kuusi pelaajaa tänään MuSan riveissä"


FC PoPan Janne Vuorinen, Antti-Pekka Pihlainen, Juha Vallin, Topi Mattila, Ville-Valtteri Tuumi ja Aleksander Akbar ovat tänään MuSan riveissä, kun joukkue kohtaa kotonaan Someron Voiman."

Then all we need to know what kind of quality these players have;
Latest PoPa match minutes here;
http://ykkonen.palloliitto.hs.prewise.com/tilastointi/print.asp?id=14820&ser=1

So it is pretty safe to assume that these PoPa players are no profile players at Ykkönen level, but of course, as the point was basically to bet against the weakest team in the group I would had thought twice if I was sure of the amount of help.

In April 2010 MuSa - SoVo in the cup ended 0-6.

I am awaiting for the match reports, but a losing bet is a losing bet no matter what they say.

Newsletter this week - Free until the end of May

This week´s program;

A look at Kakkonen as a league by tonight in another mail.

By tomorrow night I will send the preview - sheet with all the team news available for Veikkausliiga so far, and estimations for Fridays only match Haka - Oulu,

There will be some talk about the friendly Estonia - Finland at some point, but betting-wise it is not at all interesting and a lot of testing and substitutions will be made,

On Saturday there will be a look at Ykkönen matches at least,

On Sunday morning an updated preview - sheet with prices for the Sunday and Monday matches, and picks for Kakkonen as well.
Monday at 17.30 a free stream from the match HJK - Lahti at Veikkaus website.

Tuesday a review of weekends action.

As usual, I am available for more detailed info and requests by email at this address every day.

puntteri@gmail.com

Special

***

Estonia - Finland

Finland starting 11; Eremenko JR is unlikely to play today.

1 Jukka Lehtovaara
2 Veli Lampi
3 Niklas Moisander
4 Tim Sparv
5 Ari Nyman
8 Mehmet Hetemaj
13 Juska Savolainen
19 Mika Ääritalo
17 Roni Porokara
10 Jari Litmanen
11 Juho Mäkelä

A couple of interesting plans from the head coach Stuart Baxter;

In the first half the mf triangle will be Jari Litmanen on top of Mehmet Hetemaj and Juska Savolainen, on the 2nd half Baxter is preparing himself for a Post-Litmanen Era, the triangle will be turned upside down with Tim Sparv as the anchor man and Roman Eremenko and Mika Väyrynen on top of him.

Sparv will also feature as a center-back in the first half and he is clearly having a big role in Baxter´s mind in the future.


 A live stream possibly here;

An interview in english; Stuart Baxter, the head coach of Finland.

Asian odds Estonia 0 2.29 - Finland 0 1.69. Can not really argue with that until I know who are playing.


EDIT: New players invited for Finland, Mikael Forssell, Hannover and Juho Mäkelä HJK, both strikers.

Finland vs. Estonia and Poland

Gks:
Lukas Hradecky, Esbjerg fB
Jukka Lehtovaara, TPS

Defence:
Ari Nyman, FC Inter
Veli Lampi, FC Aarau *
Joni Aho, FC Inter
Markus Heikkinen, SK Rapid *
Niklas Moisander, AZ Alkmaar *

mf and attack
Tim Sparv, FC Groningen *
Mika Väyrynen, SC Heerenveen *
Mika Ääritalo, TPS
Alexei Eremenko, FF Jaro
Mehmet Hetemaj, U.C. AlbinoLeffe
Juska Savolainen, FK Haugesund
Roni Porokara, Örebro SK *
Roman Eremenko, Dynamo Kyiev *
Jari Litmanen, FC Lahti *
Juha Hakola, Heracles Almelo
Teemu Pukki, Sevilla FC
Jonatan Johansson, TPS *

* = also Poland 29.5.

Only vs. Poland:

Otto Fredrikson, FC Spartak Nalchik
Niki Mäenpää, Willem II
Tomi Maanoja, AIK
Petri Pasanen, Werder Bremen
Kasper Hämäläinen, Djurgårdens FF

Team Estonia;

Väravavahid
Artur KOTENKO (20.08.1981) – Viking FK (NOR) 20/0
Sergei PAREIKO (31.01.1977) – Tom Tomsk (RUS) 16/0

Kaitsjad
Enar JÄÄGER (18.11.1984) – Aalesunds FK (NOR) 69/0
Gert KAMS (25.05.1985) – Tallinna FC Flora 11/0
Dmitri KRUGLOV (24.05.1984) – PFC Neftši Bakuu (AZE) 49/1
Karl PALATU (05.12.1982) – Tallinna FC Flora -/-
Taavi RÄHN (16.05.1981) – PFC Neftši Bakuu (AZE) 50/0
Andrei SIDORENKOV (12.02.1984) – Sønderjysk Elitesport (DEN) 15/0
Andrei STEPANOV (16.03.1979) – FK Himki (RUS) 79/1
Tihhon ŠIŠOV (11.02.1983) – FK Khazar Lankaran (AZE) 21/0

Poolkaitsjad
Aleksandr DMITRIJEV (18.02.1982) – Hønefoss BK (NOR) 52/0
Oliver KONSA (04.03.1985) – Tallinna FC Flora 12/0
Sander PURI (07.05.1988) – AE Lárisa 1964 (GRE) 18/2
Ats PURJE (03.08.1985) – klubita 17/2
Konstantin VASSILJEV (16.08.1984) – NK Nafta Lendava (SVN) 28/3

Ründajad
Andres OPER (07.11.1977) – ADO Den Haag (NED) 114/35
Sander POST (10.09.1984) – Go Ahead Eagles (NED) 1/0
Indrek ZELINSKI (13.11.1975) – Eesti Koondis 102/27
Vladimir VOSKOBOINIKOV (02.02.1983) – PFC Neftši Bakuu (AZE) 25/3

Lahti – MyPa cup 5th round in Finnish Cup

There is also a nice stadium at Tampere, Tammela where TPV play. The one you saw at TamU – Haka match is too big and too much Soviet-build and also as Finland was playing ice hockey at the same time it is no surpise it was empty, again.

But the cup game,

I talked about this last week? Ok, it was a league match but very little has changed. Here are the official stats of the latest encounter,



They show that it was an even match, Lahti won corners 11-5 but lost shots 8-11 and the only important thing the goals by 0-2 by two goals of a son of a Finnish football legend Atik Ismail, Pele Koljonen.

I did probably give a few % too much for Lahti, but after discussing with a local odds compiler I can not really blame myself too much, Lahti and VPS have been nightmarish teams for the local bookie. They win when they should not and lose when it is not possible.

Lahti – 0,25 @ 2.21.. really sounds like I have been here before.

So what has changed?

Sampsa Timoska from MyPa defence is doubtful, also Tuunainen, Hietanen and Benevides. MyPa have never been a club whose information is most up to date or to be trusted, but they have some questionmarks and with the material available almost anyone is difficult to replace.

Yassin is finally playing for Lahti, or is he? He has not arrived to the country and the coach Ilkka Mäkelä – also under pressure – said that it might be he is never coming. ”Better promise nothing”.

Jari Litmanen?

The Lahti goal-keepers?

The winner of the match is drawn to meet VPS away in the 6th round but I am not sure I want to guess which one it will be. X

KuPS - JJK lineups

KuPS:
12 Joonas Pöntinen
3 Pietari Holopainen
6 Raphael Udah
8 Tero Taipale
9 Balazs Balogh
11 Petri Oravainen
15 Juho Nykänen
20 Miikka Ilo
23 Patrice Ollo
24 Atte Hoivala
27 Ilja Venäläinen

Bench
30 Mikko Vilmunen
4 Patrik Turunen
16 Samuli Kaivonurmi
17 Jussi Kolari
22 Jerome Ogbuefi
26 Dickson Nwakaeme


JJK:
1 Mihaly Szerovay
4 Jarkko Okkonen
5 Juha Pasoja
9 Mika Lahtinen
10 Tommi Kari
13 Tuomas Latikka
14 Jukka Sinisalo
16 Niko Markkula
18 Zakaria Abahassine
19 Christian Sund
23 Patrik Poutiainen

Bench
12 Sami Myllymäki
2 Samu Nieminen
6 Jukka-Pekka Tuomanen
8 Matti Lähitie
11 Touko Tumanto
17 Lasse Linjala
20 Mikko Hyyrynen

Stats up to the end of April

2010 Bets Finland		N	W	V	L	Money return
Jan		29	16	8	5	133,9
Feb		28	14	1,5	12,5	107,44
March		32	14,5	5,5	12	121,06
April		26	12,5	2,5	11	106,5
May
Total		115	57	17,5	40,5	115,84

I will concentrate on media and consulting for the rest of the season and take no public bets.