Edit: And thank you Inter for delivering the pick "safely" home. FT 3-4!
21.5.2011
Veikkausliiga odds round 6/2011
As usual, interesting!
Edit: And thank you Inter for delivering the pick "safely" home. FT 3-4!
Edit: And thank you Inter for delivering the pick "safely" home. FT 3-4!
Ykkönen preview on Sat without lineup info
Ykkönen May 21st
Even round in a extremely even league - 3 possible bets, PK-35 at least.
Hi lads!
Ykkönen is a low-scoring and very even league, and now with the new system there will be 4 relegated clubs out of 13 and every single point counts. All 5 matches do have an underish feel and with current odds there is no huge value in any game but a few with some idea, and odds may of course move.
Oulu - Lahti, top-2 meet and both miss scoring power. Oulu are closer of being any value but 2.08 for -0.25 is just about correct. If there is a big market move towards Lahti then Oulu might be worth it, but that price is not satisfactory for value and to cover possible analysis error. No bet.
HIFK - Kemi PS. I am hoping for some moves here towards HIFK, but there is already some value in the visitors. HIFK were completely shut down away at Kotka last Monday, but they have the best support in the whole country, the small stadion will be full and and I would want bigger margin for value here to cover the possible crazyness of HIFK. Very underish if we just look at the teams on paper, but the feeling at the stadion is good and HIFK are seriously fighting for their lives and of every ball, and in this heated atmosphere everything is possible and seeing a lot of goals would not surprise me the slighest. Also the opening match vs Viikingit was supposed to be very under and it ended 3-2. Kemi shortlisted, but +0,25 @ 1.85 needed, and possible.
JIPPO - OPS. As a rule of thumb there is always value in + hc for JIPPO at home, however today key player gk Mikko Ikonen is doubtful and if he is missing then I definitely will give up the idea of backing JIPPO. If he is playing then +0,25 @ 2 would be nice. Lineups here after confirmed and published, click the kick-off time in blue.
KPV - Espoo. The only match where there is a clear favourite though both are ranked to be bottom clubs. KPV have started very well and Espoo as expected, and in the draw last to round they showed signs of improvement and perhaps they join the survival game for real? There is a good chance that KPV becomes attractive in the market and if they do I will take a slice of Espoo today if we reach +0,75 @ 2.2.
PK-35 - PoPa. Ok then, one pick right away without any waiting game. PK-35 are in better form, have home advantage and are at least the same class with PoPa, so with a 50 % estimation there is value to be found in straight win. The only thing that worries me is the lack of quality strikers, but PoPa have problems of their own with a poor start, injuries and also the established connection with PoPa owner Sumiala and the arrested match-fixer Perumal. PK-35 @ 2.17
Kakkonen matches today as well, but given the busy schedule in Europe and the fact that the odds get destroyed in a matter of a few minutes I would not hold my breath today, so it may well be that next Newsletter will be out tomorrow on Sunday. PRO list will get a LIVE msg from a Ykkönen match or two, have not yet decided whether to go to HIFK or PK-35 home game.
Have a nice Saturday!
Even round in a extremely even league - 3 possible bets, PK-35 at least.
Hi lads!
Ykkönen is a low-scoring and very even league, and now with the new system there will be 4 relegated clubs out of 13 and every single point counts. All 5 matches do have an underish feel and with current odds there is no huge value in any game but a few with some idea, and odds may of course move.
Oulu - Lahti, top-2 meet and both miss scoring power. Oulu are closer of being any value but 2.08 for -0.25 is just about correct. If there is a big market move towards Lahti then Oulu might be worth it, but that price is not satisfactory for value and to cover possible analysis error. No bet.
HIFK - Kemi PS. I am hoping for some moves here towards HIFK, but there is already some value in the visitors. HIFK were completely shut down away at Kotka last Monday, but they have the best support in the whole country, the small stadion will be full and and I would want bigger margin for value here to cover the possible crazyness of HIFK. Very underish if we just look at the teams on paper, but the feeling at the stadion is good and HIFK are seriously fighting for their lives and of every ball, and in this heated atmosphere everything is possible and seeing a lot of goals would not surprise me the slighest. Also the opening match vs Viikingit was supposed to be very under and it ended 3-2. Kemi shortlisted, but +0,25 @ 1.85 needed, and possible.
JIPPO - OPS. As a rule of thumb there is always value in + hc for JIPPO at home, however today key player gk Mikko Ikonen is doubtful and if he is missing then I definitely will give up the idea of backing JIPPO. If he is playing then +0,25 @ 2 would be nice. Lineups here after confirmed and published, click the kick-off time in blue.
KPV - Espoo. The only match where there is a clear favourite though both are ranked to be bottom clubs. KPV have started very well and Espoo as expected, and in the draw last to round they showed signs of improvement and perhaps they join the survival game for real? There is a good chance that KPV becomes attractive in the market and if they do I will take a slice of Espoo today if we reach +0,75 @ 2.2.
PK-35 - PoPa. Ok then, one pick right away without any waiting game. PK-35 are in better form, have home advantage and are at least the same class with PoPa, so with a 50 % estimation there is value to be found in straight win. The only thing that worries me is the lack of quality strikers, but PoPa have problems of their own with a poor start, injuries and also the established connection with PoPa owner Sumiala and the arrested match-fixer Perumal. PK-35 @ 2.17
Kakkonen matches today as well, but given the busy schedule in Europe and the fact that the odds get destroyed in a matter of a few minutes I would not hold my breath today, so it may well be that next Newsletter will be out tomorrow on Sunday. PRO list will get a LIVE msg from a Ykkönen match or two, have not yet decided whether to go to HIFK or PK-35 home game.
Have a nice Saturday!
20.5.2011
A busy Saturday ahead
Kakkonen and Ykkönen. Last round Kakkonen odds were very nicely and wrongly set at Asian bookies, though correction moves were extremely fast and this time the best bits were pretty much for the early birds only. It pays off to be an early bird!
Expecting odds for these with big interest:
Expecting odds for these with big interest:
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen A | KTP | FC Kuusysi |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen A | MP | Sudet |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen A | GrIFK | Kiffen |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen B | BK-46 | FC Jazz |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen B | TPV | Åbo IFK |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen B | TiPS | Ilves |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen B | Turun Toverit | SalPa |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen C | Vasa IFK | ViPa |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen C | YPA | SJK |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen C | HauPa | FC Kiisto |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen C | Tornion Pallo-47 | GBK |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen C | FC Santa Claus | WJK |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Kakkonen C | JBK | Pallo-Kerho 37 |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Ykkönen | AC Oulu | FC lahti |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Ykkönen | HIFK | PS Kemi |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Ykkönen | Jippo | OPS |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Ykkönen | PK-35 | FC PoPa |
| 21.05.11 | Sat | Ykkönen | KPV | FC Espoo |
19.5.2011
HJK - FF Jaro preview at Nordic Football News
LINK
Agree with the analysis, but bettingwise it can compressed to this: HJK -1.25 @ 1.90 . Thank you.
Edit FT 1-0, Pukki is otherwise a great chap but conversion rate should be a bit higher, not 1/10.
Agree with the analysis, but bettingwise it can compressed to this: HJK -1.25 @ 1.90 . Thank you.
Edit FT 1-0, Pukki is otherwise a great chap but conversion rate should be a bit higher, not 1/10.
Finland early rounds review
Veikkausliiga clubs have played 4 rounds in a short period of time and today the table looks like this, JJK top the table and it is no surprise that MyPa are in the bottom.
| JJK | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7-3 | 10 | unstable but potential |
| HJK | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7-3 | 9 | champions also this season |
| Inter | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6-2 | 7 | still lack the match-killer |
| Mariehamn | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7-4 | 7 | solid |
| Honka | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 7 | young, talented, make mistakes |
| TPS | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5-5 | 6 | most unstable, good and bad |
| Jaro | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5-5 | 4 | not as good as last season |
| RoPS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5-6 | 4 | Fighters! Where will it take them? |
| VPS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | 4 | Mean at home, weak away |
| Haka | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 4 | The world still think they are a power |
| KuPS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 4 | Will be upper half |
| MYPA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1-5 | 1 | Relegation worries are for real. Gray |
HJK have already lost once, which is no surprise because they are not performing as reliably away than they do at home, but so far they have been convincing and are well on track for the title. In the bottom both RoPS and Haka have already won once, but when will the next win come? Next round on Thursday and Friday, one of the tastiest matches is Haka-Honka. Haka after all are the only club who did beat Honka in the pre-season in their own arena. Pay-back time?
Ykkönen clubs have played uneven amount of matches because there are 13 clubs in that league. Alll of them seem to have their problems. The biggest favourites Oulu and Lahti are missing strikers, Oulu because Jonke decided to leave the club and Lahti because of injuries of Rafael and Kemppinen. Most clubs are in relegation fight because 4 will be relegated directly and the biggest candidates for that are Espoo, HIFK and KPV. PoPa might be the surprise package to join the relegation battle instead of promotion fight. Lost all three and there is talk of economical worries in the organization.
Kakkonen have finished 3 rounds in all 3 groups A, B and C. Too early to make see any trends really and many of the clubs work as reserves to League clubs and for example former NT player and experienced professional Aki Riihilahti played for Klubi-04 last weekend in their 6-1 win over Kuusysi. Easy to see that at Kakkonen C SJK are exactly as good as expected and are unbeaten so far with a goal difference of 8-0.
Teams that are likely to rise a lot in the table when summer comes are at least Atlantis, and Kuusysi in group A, where also Sudet top my list of relegation candidates (3 or 4 from each group), in B there will one or two very lucky but bad teams as it is very much split into two categories. Ilves will top the league after the season and the other top-7 clubs are Jazz, BK-46, Pallo-Iirot, SalPa, Åbo IFK and JäPS, the remaining 5 will fight to win each other and stay in the league.
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