The champions all home goals 2012 - HJK

Meistriliiga 2012 all stars

A note to self really. Easy to see the progress of Nomme Kalju; they will take part in Komia 2013 and have several other friendlies in Finland as usual during the winter. Teles was the gk at Jaro 2011.

How did local sports media fare with 2012 rankings?

Depending on what you want to look they did either well or poorly. Everyone knew the winner - HJK - no one guessed the relegated club right and the midtable estimations were a mess.

Rank	Kymppipaikka	Veikkaaja	Urheilulehti	Final table	Points
1	HJK	HJK	HJK	HJK	64
2	TPS	Inter	Inter	Inter	58
3	JJK	TPS	Honka	TPS	54
4	Honka	Honka	JJK	MIFK	51
5	Inter	JJK	TPS	Lahti	50
6	KuPS	KuPS	KuPS	MyPa	49
7	VPS	VPS	VPS	Honka	43
8	MIFK	Jaro	Jaro	VPS	43
9	Haka	MIFK	Haka	JJK	40
10	Jaro	Haka	MIFK	KuPS	36
11	MyPa	Lahti	Lahti	Jaro	33
12	Lahti	MyPa	MyPa	Haka	32

My own publicly published ranking was this : very obscure on purpose and I was expecting an even season, MIFK was the dark horse but I was as adamant as everyone else that MyPa would go down.

MIFK btw might get an added reward for their good season as they won the local Fair Play - competition as usually Finland have won the extra European ql spot. MIFK to Europe 2013? It will be decided in the spring.,

2012 1x2 distribution

Well, as the saying goes the years and seasons are not brothers! These seem to vary strongly from season to season and it was only a couple of seasons ago when "home" won "away" not until the very last round of Veikkausliiga. This season´s home win percentage is record high 52% and the question is if the home advantage has increased or is it variance? If there is a reason for the increase I would like to know why. 2011 the distribution was 47-27-26 so what we missed a lot were the equalizing goals from the away teams.

This raises the eternal question about the validity of any sample and the discussion will go on. Are any of the data  from season 2010 useful anymore? Is there a trend? Are there 60 % home wins next season?


There were significantly less goals this season at Veikkausliiga compared to 599 goals on previous season. I for once would had wanted to see some of the narrow TPS 1-0 wins to end up in a draw instead.

Most goals were seen at Kakkonen South, but partly there is LoPa to blame who earned only one point throughout the season. Needless to say that the 2-2 draw away at BK-46 was a costly one, nearly as bad as the cup game on neutral ground vs JäPS who won the Eastern group in the end. At that time bookies got a narrow escape as they offered a -0.5 line for JäPS.  (JäPS won after extra time, a fair line would had been around -2). LoPa´s games produced 179 goals with the avg of 6.63 per game.

The % for draws at Kakkonen varies a lot from season and group, but you do not have to be a rocket scientist to see that the high-looking odds of 4.5  for a draw often offer no value. At match totals the line of 2.5 is rarely offered and you can see why.

2012	Matches	1	x	2	Goals	Avg	U 2.5	O 2.5
Veikkausliiga	198	52	20,7	27,3	535	2,70	51	49
Ykkönen	135	45,9	22,2	31,9	365	2,70	50	50
2 South	135	52,6	14,1	33,3	522	3,87	31	69
2 East	135	45,9	20	34,1	448	3,32	31	69
2 West	135	42,2	17,8	40	469	3,47	36	64
2 North	108	42,6	20,4	37	362	3,35	33	67

Joel Pohjanpalo goals 2012

Kakkonen 6.10.

TP-47 - KPV 65 17 18
o/u 2.5: 75 25

PK-37 - HauPa 62 17 21
o/u 2.5: 76 24

FC YPA - FC Santa Claus 73 14 13
o/u 2.5: 76 24

PS Kemi - AC Kajaani 70 15 15
o/u 2.5: 80 20

TP-47 - KPV is a match I will skip, too many unknown names starting for the home team and there aren't a lot of odds available either. YPA's match doesn't have any odds at all, so no reason to preview that. HauPa is fighting for their lives, but PK-37 is probably the last team that would just roll over due to their workman-like mentality and bald-headed player coach Lähderinne. However, the over should be a good option with ~1,40 available at some places. AC Kajaani has had a lot of problems with really bad teams lately, and now they're understandably resting some players. As we've learned from the other two slave galleys of Rovaniemi and OPS, the local players are laughably bad so I'll happily take the 1,60-level odds that are available for the home team, who despite resting some of their players should have enough to see off this weakened away team.

From Ykkönen AC Oulu over and OPS -0,25 look really appealing.

Kakkonen 30.9.

For today I'd continue opposing KPV and betting on FC YPA. PK-37's form looks ugly but they haven't played that badly and most importantly their opponents have been really high-quality, and so I don't agree at all with setting KPV as favorites, the team which has shown basically nothing good in the second half of the season. HauPa - FC YPA is obviously a hugely important match, but I think HauPa might be a bit overrated after their wins against Santa Claus, who was playing with their second-rate squad and AC Kajaani, whose form has heavily dipped after their promotion spot became practically sure. Overs look quite appealing for both games, with KPV - PK-37 being a bit more interesting due to the no stakes nature of the clash.