Veikkausliiga April 28-29th

Busy schedule continues, most clubs played on Wednesday, and as you the rest period here is too short, and the pace of the matches in general is very slow.


Inter rotating, 5 reg starters benched. Honka finally get some creativity to starting-11 in Kaufmann.

Local odds:

Sportmarket PRO:

PK35 - FC Espoo at Ykkönen

Edit: FT 0-1. PK had their chances before the goal, but as they could not convert them into goals Espoo did steal all three points. Not really a wrong result, but Espoo are not that good. There were a couple of missing players from the home team starting line-up which were not published before the game.

And it looks like we have a bet.

PK35 - (FC Espoo) -0,5 @ 2.08

A greater Helsinki metropolitan derby at the artificial pitch in Myyrmäki, Vantaa.

PK35 are on an upward trend both in results and performances and in the injury situation, whereas FC Espoo have been weakish lately and got a very lucky and undeserved win last time vs MP when they themselves were playing with 10 men after the suspension of Kuusijärvi. Important Faton Seferi returns to Espoo squad, but they are without Kuusijärvi,  Roschier and Vasse.

PK are only missing Lönnström, Halme and Sorja and the injury situation is at best so far so this season, also the change of coach seems to have brought some extra energy and joy in the team. Espoo have had an easier schedule so far, PK-35 have only faced the top teams in the early season and soon they will go past Espoo in the table.

Not a certain winner, but everything else here favours the hosts except the table. I like the looks of Espoo, they are young, they believe in themselves and have surprised many so far and they can stay at Ykkönen which would be a good result for a newly-promoted team, but PK35 are the favourites here and and the asian bookies look too closely to the standings here in setting the odds.

As long the odds stay at 2.00 or above it is well worth taking. The odds rose from yesterday, and I have a feeling they will come back to this level 2.08 -2.1 even if they momentarily drop so take a look later if the value is gone when you read this post.

HIFK - Atlantis at Kakkonen 21st May 2010

HIFK – Atlantis

The teams share the same stadium and have red shirts but there is exactly nothing else in common with them.

HIFK is a traditional and a big club with glorious history, Atlantis is the result of a fusion, bankrupties, suspect of match fixing, foreign players and background players and have no roots and no fans whereas HIFK fan base is definitely strongest of all lower league teams, even stronger than most League clubs.

HIFK´s most known figure last season was the controversial Estonian coach Gert Remmel, who is now assisting Mika Lehkosuo at Honka. The current HIFK coach Jani Honkavaara has a partly changed player material since last year, but Atlantis is 100 % compared to the 2009 Atlantis at Ykkönen.

Atlantis is really a story of their own, last season they started with mostly local lads, but as there was no success and an Lithuanian club had been banned from their own league there were a teamful of good quality players at disposal, and Atlantis took them! The players they already had were not overwhelmingly happy about it.

The semi-lithuanian Atlantis got relegated even though the performances got better round by round, and 2010 Atlantis started with new faces. New players, mostly from the academy, and an Estonian coach Aavo Sarap. The pre-season was disastreous, and not surprisingly the team changed again just before the season. The new manager Bola has his roots in Nigeria, but has been in Finland for a long time and knows a lot of players, and he has invited them now to Atlantis. This Atlantis is almost 100 % african.

They look like a mid-table Kakkonen team at the moment, but what happens next week?

Because of several reasons local bookie Veikkaus do not offer Atlantis matches at all.

KuPS - HJK preview

Venue 

Magnum Arena Kuopio. Artificial pitch, also HJK play their home matches on astro-turf.

Weather 0-5 Celsius, possibility of rain

TV coverage Urho TV. Streams?

Latest results
KuPS - MyPa 2-0 friendly, KuPS- TamU 3-1 lc, KuPS - JJK 2-1 lc

HJK - Viikingit f 2-1, HJK - Jaro 1-3 lc, Lahti – HJK 4-1 lc

Last season HJK 1^st in the league with 52 (29/23 home/away) points, KuPS 12^th with 23 points (13/10).

Latest mutual matches: 2009 HJK won both league matches 0-3 and 5-1, but lost at the Finnish cup at Kuopio 1-0.

Program the following week:

JJK – KuPS Finnish Cup 4th round, exact date undecided (20-22.4?) & 25.4 KuPS - FC Lahti Veikkausliiga.

HJK – Haka 26.4 Veikkausliiga

Injuries:

KuPS def Joni Nissinen & mf Miikka Turunen,

HJK long-term def Mathias Lindström and f Akseli Pelvas. Aki Riihilahti will miss a couple of games

Doubtfuls:

KuPS def Atte Hoivala,

HJK f Jarno Parikka

Suspensions:-

Returns: HJK mf Janne Saarinen and f Jarno Parikka from long-term injury.

Club form and performances: KuPS struggled a bit in the early stages of the league cup, but the work of coach Esa Pekonen and the returns of Ollo and Dickson and mf Miikka ilo hitting form again has turned KuPS into a seriously taken Veikkausliiga club. In the latest pre-season friendly KuPS took a comfortable win and a boost for their league hopes by beating MyPa at home 2-0. HJK did have to do without Sorsa as a winger for their latest matches and he has been replaced properly by young and talented Johannes Westö. On the left flank Dawba Bah has been left alone, and he has tried to take part too much in the game by leaving his position and trying to be a play-maker with poor success.

Key factors: HJK wingers Bah and Sorsa, KuPS ”beast” Dickson as he was called in the excellent Nordic Football News season preview. If they are let loose, there will be goal opportunities at both ends of the pitch. Petri Oravainen has a chance to show HJK coach Muurinen what he does miss, before his spell abroad and unlucky return to HJK Oravainen was one of the best players of the league. HJK have a lot of players for the anchor man role in the midfield – actually way too many – but lack a play-maker and if the wingers do not get the ball enough HJK lack imagination and creativity big time. Medo is good, but mostly only in defending.

Questionmarks:

HJK striker Danny Hoesen, a new loan from Fulham reserves. He might be a good striker, but he has joined the team only recently and has no matches under his belt.

HJK central defender Peter Magnusson from Djurgården also looked very weak and uncomfortable with the ball in his first match vs. Jaro a couple of weeks ago.

KuPS full-backs are a mixture of old and young, but to be able to shut down HJK wingers they need help from the midfield, and defending has not always been their biggest strength. A humble and hard-working attitude is needed.

In the media KuPS have been estimated to be relegation material and HJK 1^st or 2^nd best. It is not totally wrong to see it like that, but the league is more even than it has been for years, and HJK with their injury-struck pre-season and rather a thin material both in the defence and in the attack might also end up in the upper mid-table, and with a good start for the season for KuPS they have at least big hopes for survival and even for a lower mid-table finish. In that light HJK are far from being sure winners away at Kuopio tonight.

Possible starting line-ups:

KuPS: Vilmunen gk–Taipale–Holopainen–Balogh–Hoivala/(Nykänen)-Ilo-Ollo-Udah-Oravainen-Venäläinen–Dickson

HJK : Wallen gk–Kansikas/(Sumusalo)–Magnusson-Kärkkäinen/Ojala-Rafinha-Bah-Medo-Fowler/(Saarinen)-Sorsa/(Westö)-Mäkelä-Hoesen

Especially for HJK there is a number of variety, Rafinha can be a winger, Kärkkäinen a full-back, Sumusalo on the right and so on.

Current odds KuPS + 0,5 @ 1.91 - HJK -0,5 @ 2.01. Any value? Which way are they moving? More detailed betting information available in the Newsletter.

Order yours from puntteri@gmail.com, Now!

AC Oulu - Tampere Utd preview April 18th 2010

Asian handicap price limits for betting in the table

	AC Oulu	TamU
-0,5	2,63	1,61	0,5
-0,25	2,17	1,86	0,25
0	1,84	2,19	0

AC Oulu (promoted as a winner from Ykkönen) – Tampere United (7th 2009)



Venue Castrén, artificial pitch.

Weather chilly, possibility of snow

TV coverage Urho web - TV. Streams?

Latest results of Oulu: Boden – Oulu 0-2 f, Oulu – Honka 1-1 lc, TamU – Oulu 0-3 lc
Latest results of TamU: PoPa – TamU 1-3, KuPS – TamU 3-1 lc, TamU – Oulu 0-3 lc

Program the following week:
TamU – JJK April 23rd league
MyPa – Oulu April 24th league
VPS – Oulu April 21st Cup


Injuries:
Oulu will miss Tommi Kauppinen for the whole season
TamU- ?

Doubtfuls:
Oulu – Joonas Pennanen
TamU – striker Jonne Hjelm has been on a test camp in Slovakia and might be stuck at the airport

several minor doubts, DeMattia just returned from Brazil. Clearance?

Club form and performances:

Oulu did very well in the league cup with their promoted side who is from the most important parts unchanged. Oulu winning 0-3 at Tampere in March is remembered well in both camps, and the result reflected the match performances. TamU have had their share of injuries and for the media the coach and staff have tried to hide behind being ”under very hard training and being stiff”, but there is more to that as the performances have been weak, there roles of the new players have not been found and they are far from being a solid unit and helping one another. Mentally it has been a tough pre-season for Tampere Utd, who are supposed to be one of the big guns of the league but have been destroyed by the likes of KuPS, Oulu, VPS and JJK in the league cup.

Key factors:
A battle between the managers Juha Malinen of Oulu and Ari Hjelm of TamU. Both have been around for a long time and have had their share of success. Supposedly TamU should have the advantage on the pitch, but it has hardly been shown. A waiting game is to be expected, mistakes in defense will be crucial. TamU striker Henri Myntti has been left alone up-front, and as a previous defender in his career he can not do miracles with the ball. TamU might not even have a bench full of subs, but it is the players on the pitch who decide the outcome the matches, not the ones on the bench.

Oulu have a set piece- specialist in former NT player Mika Nurmela and a winner from a free-kick would not surprise me the slightest.


Questionmarks:
TamU form and away form in particular. Last season they earned 12 points on their travels (3-3-7) and nothing suggests any better at this point of the season. TamU midfielder Tuomas Haapala who is taking the role of a play-maker, and it does not really suit him as he is more a destroyer than creator of anything.  Sooner or later also the manager Ari Hjelm will find that out, but as long he is left responsible for the creativity TamU is slow in the attack and very predictable.


You can check the official lineups 1 hour before the kick-off from www.Veikkausliiga.com ; choose "tuloksia" from the left, then scroll down to see your match and pick "tapahtumat"

Two matches tomorrow. Laters!

ask for details from puntteri@gmail.com 

OPA - OPS, who gets promoted?

EDIT: FT 1-3.

Was not that nice, I had under 3 goals. Then at 0-2 I tried to cover it by over 2.5 as it sounded like there were more goals to come. Live bet got rejected, and the OPS scored their third. When the game was over OPA scored 1-3 at the last touch of the match, a goal no one cared about except me and I lost my bet. Tough luck, say..

The last round at Group C at Kakkonen and the match of the year for the locals at Oulu, as the fierce derby is played this Friday night and only the winner, or in the case of a draw, OPA will get promoted.

Both teams have made good work and invested a lot in this, OPS have had a better finish for the season and they have managed to fili in the gap they still had some 5 rounds ago, and the promotion is still open for grabs, the winner takes it all!

In the first match OPA thrashed OPS 0-3, and the expert opinion apart from the local bookie Veikkaus sees OPA as a better team, but it should be tight as hell. The opinion of Veikkaus is a bit worrying though, and they are perhaps forced to drop the odds sooner or later?

The asian bookies have reacted to the situation surprisingly well, the line was 0 and OPA had been found as a favourite. Have to given them credit for that, but I also had to change my original plan of a bet for this, and took u3 goals @ 1.94 instead as OPA winning shows no significant value.


H2H:

17.07.09 Kakkonen Lohko C OPS-jp vs. FC OPA 0:3
20.08.08 Kakkonen Lohko C OPS-jp vs. FC OPA 1:0
24.05.08 Kakkonen Lohko C FC OPA vs. OPS-jp 1:1

FC OPA 25 20 3 2 81-18 63
OPS-jp 25 20 3 2 65-24 63
FC YPA 25 18 1 6 65-31 55
VIFK 25 13 6 6 46-26 45
Seinäjoen JK 25 14 1 10 55-50 43
FCV 25 11 2 12 56-50 35
JBK 25 10 5 10 45-43 35
GBK 25 8 6 11 33-35 30
FC Santa Claus 25 9 2 14 50-71 29
FCJ 25 7 6 12 38-54 27
PK-37 25 7 5 13 31-44 26
OLS 25 5 6 14 39-58 21
Norrvalla FF 25 4 4 17 38-80 16
Virkiä 25 2 4 19 31-89 10