Few words about Sunday lower league matches.
Atlantis got two additional absentees themselves from the midfield and they could not challenge properly City Stars who are a quality team.
Pallohonka could not challenge Pallo-Iirot at any time, and their emphasis is on survival at Kakkonen, the youngsters are physically and mentally too weak and being one goal behind is usually deciding.
No written report from Warkaus yet, but the direct red card at 62th minute probably did not help in the 0-2 home defeat to HIFK.
Viikingit won KooTeePee 1-0, and their 1st choice keeper got a direct red card too and will miss two games. The replacing gk Heikki Kärkkäinen is a good one.
MP lost 0-3 to PK35, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel at the moment.Thank you for visiting.
Kemi PS form is very bad, and they did miss some of their injured key players big time in the home loss vs. OPS. There was a lot of pressure on the market for OPS + 0,5 and it changed into +0,25 quite soon. OPS could be a dangerous team with full squad.
Futura won Riverball 2-0, there was heavy ”wise money” for Riverball before the match which was an even encounter.
VIFK kept on underperforming in the 2C, and GBK took a routine 0-2 win from poor Korsholm.
Kiffen won away at PePo and Jazz away at Sinimustat, and it probably tells us only about the poor class of the home teams. PePo have big injury worries and they even seemed to have a surprise starter last night as their coach did play too, but they would be in trouble even without them.
Honka – Haka 4-2 was a bit strange experience. A bad match from the hosts and Haka were probably showing their best so far at least on the first half, but in the end their weaknesses in the defence were disposed and super-sub Demba Savage did create a goal chance for Honka every time he wanted to.
TPS – HJK 0-1 was an eventless game where late goal by Jarno Parikka brought the points for the league leaders. Medo was missed again.
Jaro – KuPS 0-1 another late goal here, no highlights yet available.
MyPa – Inter 3-2 ”Our weakest match this season”, said Inter coach Job Dragtsma.
4.7.2010
Finland lower leagues on Sunday
No news for Veikkausliiga and only minor changes in odds, Honka, KuPS, Inter and HJK have dropped a bit.
Ykkönen
MP +0,25 @ 1.89 – PK35 -0,25 @ 2.03
I have expected more from MP and perhaps they would deserve some more points, but it looks really gloomy for them at the bottom of the table and being 7 points away from safety there is soon no other alternative than start winning games. They have played at home 4 times and 6 times away and it might lie a bit in the table , but their only win so far was away at poor Hämeenlinna and there is just one point earned from the home ground. In front of the goal(s) they look like a Kakkonen side, and 5 scored goals from 10 games is definitely not enough for survival. PK have been rotating too much and at least vs. Espoo it was a bad idea but they should be able to break down MPｴs defence at least once, and it could just enough for a win. I wait for line-ups personally, really would like to see PK fielding their best players and PK35 is only shortlisted. There was a 10 % drop in MP price from 2.08 to 1.89 and it makes me wonder. On paper PK start to be value at that price, my own feeling is not really supporting the idea.
Kemi Kings -0,5 @ 2.16 – OPS 0,5 @ 1.78
I was hoping for a better price for the visitors who should have the best possible line-up available. Hosts 6 latest matches without a win, the latest win dates back to May 16th. No bet with current odds and OPS actually dropped a bit further.
Viikingit -0,5 @ 2.05 – KooTeePee +0,5 @ 1.87
Viikingit did very well vs. Klubi04 and should had won even more convincingly than 0-3, and they are unbeaten since May 16th away at Kemi. There are some doubtful players (Pulkkinen, Kaipio, Kleemola) at home side and the visitors have full squad, except of the long-term injured. Viikingit look like a top-2 side at Ykkönen again, and the price is not quite good enough for a good value bet, but it is almost there and I have a good feeling about it.
Kakkonen
Interesting matches. Very hot day, and yesterdayｴs match LoPa - KaaPo looked like a standing competition as players were too exhausted to move even in the beginning of the match. It was very slow pace throughout the game, and I gave up the idea of live betting, but at hindsight it was all LoPa and the -1 should really had been taken, KaaPo were a total disaster of a team and had no chance after the first LoPa goal.
There are big market moves to be expected again, so far my own picks today are WJK Atlantis, VIFK, GBK + earlies for Honka & HJK.
Pallohonka youngsters fought a win away at Grankulla IFK but have been in trouble against the more physical sides like Jazz, Salpa and Pallo-Iirot today. There have been regularly 3 Honka first team players with Pallohonka, except last time when they came back to winning ways, the visitors miss at least ex-HJK defender Iiro Aalto due suspension, and according to the reports they lack creativity and perhaps the weather and the artificial pitch favours the hosts today? Tempted to take Pallo-Iirot early at that price and I think it will drop closer to what local bookie are offering (-0,5 @ 2.15), but actually I am now watching the match and have no early bets for this.
Sinimustat +0,25 @ 2.00 - FC Jazz -0,25 @ 1.88
Inter Turku play at the same time, and the only likely help from the first team is gk Patrick Bantamoi.
Atlantis - City Stars
Got info about City Stars but unfortunately it is not very precise; ” significant missing players” - obviously some players are on a well-deserved holiday. Atlantis miss important gk Bangura and striker Ekeh. Atlantis have signed Nigerian Iyam Friday who have some Veikkausliiga experience from AC Oulu a couple of years back and might turn out to be very useful player at this level and Atlantis are a bit a short of player material in general. Price of Atlantis rose to -0,25 @ 2.16 which is well worth a bet and you can take it at down to 1.90
Warkaus JK -0,75 @ 1.86 - HIFK
A long trip for HIFK against the top side, and the odds are in line with my thoughts. Reading the home and away stats is misleading here, as HIFK have done well in their ”away games”, but apart from poor Kuusankoski they are derbies which involve no travel. HIFK get important Okkonen back and miss only one player due suspension. I took this, WJK are strong at home and being on a bus all day is not an ideal preparation for a match.
PEPO +0,25 @ 2.06 - FC Kiffen -0,25 @ 1.82
Home side are heading back to 3rd division, but earning a draw against Kiffen who have drawn 7 times already would be no big surprise. Do not believe in home win, and backing Kiffen is hardly very tempting either.
FC Futura -0,25 @ 2.06 - SC Riverball +0,25 @ 1.82
Riverball top the table, but both teams are midtable material. Another long travel to Riverball but they have handled their trips very well. Futura have lost 3 times in a row but have the capacity to beat any team at the group and are deservedly the favourites here but only narrowly and the early odds are about right, and already dropped to 1.98.
And back to the beautiful North;
FC OPA - VIFK 35 23 42
o/u 2.5: 56 44
Extremely low-scoring match is expected and I personally put some units on the under even if it's only a very small value by numbers. Like in yesterday's Santa Claus, the visitors have the much better
squad, but they've massively underachieved so far. VIFK hasn't won in ages but their last two games have been more promising and they've at least shown some fight and urgency. FC OPA hasn't exactly been in hot form lately either, so their favorite status is puzzling for me, but as VIFK is still a big questionmark I can't really recommend playing them with the same staking as me. FC OPA has one relatively important striker missing, VIFK information is hard to get but in their last match, important midfielder Glasberg was on the bench, so that is something to look for when the line-ups arrive.
FC OPA - VIFK +0,25 2 60% 1,98 7/10 Sbobet
FC Korsholm - GBK 12 16 72
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Playing GBK is never that tasty because of their form swings, but Korsholm is so horrid that even with a bad display GBK will probably claw at least a one goal victory because of the huge difference in class, though the same warning as in the FC OPA match applies here too, so lower stakes could be a safer option. Korsholm was slightly or extremely lucky depending on whose report you read to lose only by one goal against SJK, and GBK was very unlucky against JBK last week as they continued their 3 match losing streak. Both sides have failed to provide any kind of a preview, but GBK should probably have only their long-term injured players out. Total line is set correctly, and it
could honestly be anything between a 0-0 or something similar to yesterday's supposedly low-scoring FCV-KajHa that somehow ended 5-2. History usually doesn't matter with the frequent shuffling of players,but GBK did have huge problems last year against that year's bad team Virkiä as they managed to get only a one point from them.
FC Korsholm - GBK -1 2 64,5% 1,88 8/10 Sbobet
o/u 2.5: 56 44
Extremely low-scoring match is expected and I personally put some units on the under even if it's only a very small value by numbers. Like in yesterday's Santa Claus, the visitors have the much better
squad, but they've massively underachieved so far. VIFK hasn't won in ages but their last two games have been more promising and they've at least shown some fight and urgency. FC OPA hasn't exactly been in hot form lately either, so their favorite status is puzzling for me, but as VIFK is still a big questionmark I can't really recommend playing them with the same staking as me. FC OPA has one relatively important striker missing, VIFK information is hard to get but in their last match, important midfielder Glasberg was on the bench, so that is something to look for when the line-ups arrive.
FC OPA - VIFK +0,25 2 60% 1,98 7/10 Sbobet
FC Korsholm - GBK 12 16 72
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Playing GBK is never that tasty because of their form swings, but Korsholm is so horrid that even with a bad display GBK will probably claw at least a one goal victory because of the huge difference in class, though the same warning as in the FC OPA match applies here too, so lower stakes could be a safer option. Korsholm was slightly or extremely lucky depending on whose report you read to lose only by one goal against SJK, and GBK was very unlucky against JBK last week as they continued their 3 match losing streak. Both sides have failed to provide any kind of a preview, but GBK should probably have only their long-term injured players out. Total line is set correctly, and it
could honestly be anything between a 0-0 or something similar to yesterday's supposedly low-scoring FCV-KajHa that somehow ended 5-2. History usually doesn't matter with the frequent shuffling of players,but GBK did have huge problems last year against that year's bad team Virkiä as they managed to get only a one point from them.
FC Korsholm - GBK -1 2 64,5% 1,88 8/10 Sbobet
R.I.P Valkeakosken Haka?
Invitation to FC Haka OY shareholders to a meeting where the economical situation and possibilities of continuing in the future are discussed. Published at Haka website.
2.7.2010
VPS - AC Oulu LIVE
FT 93 min 2-0. VPS goes to 7th place, but if they play like this away at TamU on Monday they will be in big trouble. Oulu travel to JJK, and they need to play like they did on the first half in order to win.
83 min 2-0 Björk by a counter.
82 a couple of corners for VPS. Bettingwise the interest has gone a long time ago, Oulu lost the touch during HT and judging by the second half the likely home win is if not deserved but acceptable at least.
79 min Have to say that holland - brazil was a better match. I also running out of milk for coffee.
77 Oulu have some pressure, but do not look like scoring.
70 min time for coffee.
63 min pace is going down, the "wrong" team leads as VPS are defensively not bad.
60 min Oulu tactical sub, Juuso Majava in, Meriläinen out.
56 good Oulu chance and Marzuoli save, corner.
52 min the shirts are the same, but there is no spirit in Oulu anymore. Did they really get that tired, or is it down to more brave VPS strategy? Another VPS chance.
49 VPS are a different team compared to first half.Oulu 0 @ 2.06 is not that tempting at the moment.
46 min VPS score from close range, Aalto 1-0.
2nd half start, no subs, Oulu 0 @ 2.25 now.
45 min VPS hit the post from the counter. HT 0-0.
40 min the players are looking like they are waiting for the ht. It is very hot day to play.
36 a VPS shot out of the blue. Over the crossbar.
34 min Oulu corner, VPS rely in counters and give up the possession.
33 min, a quiet moment.
30 min, odds stubborningly favouring VPS, not the better team on the pitch who is Oulu.
26 min Oulu 0 @ 2.23 looks also like an interesting choice.
23 very dangerous VPs counter, no goal. Still interested in over, but need to find a better moment for it, 1.75 @ 2.05 now available.
22 min Oulu have all the chances and possession now, gk Marzuoli has kept VPS in the game. Corner for Oulu.
19 2 good chances for Oulu after a speedy run by Ngambe. Oulu have been the better team so far.
17 min over 2 @ 2.08 now, but there is no hurry to take anything just yet.
15 min some calming down in the game. no bets, odds have evened up a bit which reflects the performances. Oulu corner and a good chance for Oulu.
13 min oulu corner after a good goal chance for Pennanen. No goal.
12 min VPS Aalto shoots again but not very dangerously.
9 min, VPS have the better chances now, surprisingly open match so far. no bets yet, but think about over 2 now.
6 minutes played, 1 chance for both teams, corner for VPS. No change in odds, Oulu have started better. 2nd corner.
Oulu have kept the ball for the first 3 minutes.
Ethie instead of Majava for AC Oulu.
Odds have been dropping a bit for VPS the whole day, but there have been no late news, the suspensions of 3 Oulu players have been well known for several days. At current odds VPS 0 @ 1.65 they should be 43 % favourites and I am not at all sure that is the case; there has been no home advantage for most teams this season and Oulu have useful replacements for the missing players. Bench is very weak for both teams. Surprisingly VPS go on with Marzuoli between the posts, regular keeper Kwon is free from suspension as well.
Home 1x2 distribution 2010;
83 min 2-0 Björk by a counter.
82 a couple of corners for VPS. Bettingwise the interest has gone a long time ago, Oulu lost the touch during HT and judging by the second half the likely home win is if not deserved but acceptable at least.
79 min Have to say that holland - brazil was a better match. I also running out of milk for coffee.
77 Oulu have some pressure, but do not look like scoring.
70 min time for coffee.
63 min pace is going down, the "wrong" team leads as VPS are defensively not bad.
60 min Oulu tactical sub, Juuso Majava in, Meriläinen out.
56 good Oulu chance and Marzuoli save, corner.
52 min the shirts are the same, but there is no spirit in Oulu anymore. Did they really get that tired, or is it down to more brave VPS strategy? Another VPS chance.
49 VPS are a different team compared to first half.Oulu 0 @ 2.06 is not that tempting at the moment.
46 min VPS score from close range, Aalto 1-0.
2nd half start, no subs, Oulu 0 @ 2.25 now.
45 min VPS hit the post from the counter. HT 0-0.
40 min the players are looking like they are waiting for the ht. It is very hot day to play.
36 a VPS shot out of the blue. Over the crossbar.
34 min Oulu corner, VPS rely in counters and give up the possession.
33 min, a quiet moment.
30 min, odds stubborningly favouring VPS, not the better team on the pitch who is Oulu.
26 min Oulu 0 @ 2.23 looks also like an interesting choice.
23 very dangerous VPs counter, no goal. Still interested in over, but need to find a better moment for it, 1.75 @ 2.05 now available.
22 min Oulu have all the chances and possession now, gk Marzuoli has kept VPS in the game. Corner for Oulu.
19 2 good chances for Oulu after a speedy run by Ngambe. Oulu have been the better team so far.
17 min over 2 @ 2.08 now, but there is no hurry to take anything just yet.
15 min some calming down in the game. no bets, odds have evened up a bit which reflects the performances. Oulu corner and a good chance for Oulu.
13 min oulu corner after a good goal chance for Pennanen. No goal.
12 min VPS Aalto shoots again but not very dangerously.
9 min, VPS have the better chances now, surprisingly open match so far. no bets yet, but think about over 2 now.
6 minutes played, 1 chance for both teams, corner for VPS. No change in odds, Oulu have started better. 2nd corner.
Oulu have kept the ball for the first 3 minutes.
Ethie instead of Majava for AC Oulu.
Home 1x2 distribution 2010;
| total | 22 | 21 | 33 | 84 | 113 | 197 | 28,9 | 27,6 | 43,4 | 2,59 |
| 1 | x | 2 | home | away | total | 1 | x | 2 | avg |
1.7.2010
Europe league ql round 1 - Finland
Some euro words and links for tonight, odds are there only for informational purposes.
TPS – Port Talbot Town
-1.5 @ 1.75 for TPS. My knowledge of the visitors is nonexistent, but last season FC Honka met another Welsh team Bangor at this time of year, and the aggregate of 3-0 does not do justice to Honka who should had scored some six goals in their home match.
Preview from Nordic Football Info;
Welsh preview;
Trans Narva – MyPa
+0,25 @ 2.05 available for the hosts, who are actually not playing on their own home ground but had to travel to Tallinn for this match. I have seen Estonian teams semi-regularly, but never this club who are only 2 points behind of Levadia in the Estonian Meistriliiga, though Levadia have played only 18 matches. Levadia would be an upper midtable club in Veikkausliiga, and Narva should not be far behind this season. Narva coach Bondarenko has been coaching also in Finland and knows exactly what to expect. Despite winning away at Mariehamn MyPa have not convinced me even once this season.
MyPa have in my understanding some injury worries, last round at MIFK they were without key men Okkonen and Koljonen.
However as the true class of the home club is unknown to me I am not taking any bets, but if forced I would go for Narva.
http://www.soccerway.com/teams/estonia/jk-trans-narva/
JK Narva Trans 20 12 5 3 36:16 41
The qualification matches always offer a chance for fixing, and the Estonian clubs have not always been the cleanest clubs around, but I am not suggesting anything shady here, just keeping the eyes open.
http://www.fctrans.ee/
EDIT: Trans lost 0-2 and there is lively talk about the match at Bettingadvice.com, I am not going to discuss it here but take part if you feel so.
Stats up to June 30th
Latest week was not the best of all weeks. These are not "official" Newsletter stats as there is no such thing, but from one project of mine.
| 23.06.10 | Veikkausliiga | MIFK | MyPa | 1-2 | MIFK | -0,25 | 1,95 |
| 23.06.10 | Kakkonen | PK37 | YPA | 1-0 | YPA | -0,5 | 2,04 |
| 23.06.10 | Kakkonen | VIFK | Kiisto | 1-1 | Kiisto | -0,25 | 2,17 |
| 23.06.10 | Kakkonen | BK46 | EIF | 0-2 | EIF | -0,5 | 1,99 |
| 23.06.10 | Kakkonen | KaaPo | SalPa | 2-2 | SalPa | -0,5 | 2,2 |
| 23.06.10 | Kakkonen | Kiffen | Atlantis | 1-2 | Kiffen | -0.25 | 2,44 |
| 30.06.10 | Kakkonen | Jazz | MuSa | 1-0 | Jazz | -0,75 | 1,98 |
| 30.06.10 | Kakkonen | Futura | City Stars | 2-3 | City Stars | 0,25 | 1,7 |
| 159 | 0 | 77,5 | 22,5 | 59 | 177,35 | 18,35 | 111,54 |
| stake | O | W | V | L | Win | Net | ROI |
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