27.4.2018
Kakkonen 2018
Groups A & C start this weekend, Group B next.
Odds from local bookie below, some euro bookies have also offered something, but they have mixed up even some club names... Now local odds are not 100% correct, but in general "always" better than euro books.
As usual there will be some clubs who are more or less reserves of some teams, and there will be sudden market moves if and when there is info and players coming in from the first team.
MyPa/KTP
FCV/JJK
PKKU/FC Lahti
KuFu/KuPS
SJK2
JBK/Jaro
26.4.2018
Veikkausliiga April 28-29th
Busy schedule continues, most clubs played on Wednesday, and as you the rest period here is too short, and the pace of the matches in general is very slow.
Inter rotating, 5 reg starters benched. Honka finally get some creativity to starting-11 in Kaufmann.
Local odds:
Sportmarket PRO:
Tunnisteet:
bet,
finland premier league,
hjk,
honka,
Inter,
pick,
sjk,
veikkausliiga
Veikkausliiga xP table after matches April 25th
Yes,
there are dozens of ways to calculate xG, and another dozen to lead them into xP - expected points.
In short my method is based on expected goal count, but only until the match is decided. What it means is that any goals into empty net do not count. There is also some adjustment which respects the result. After all winning a match is also a skill of its own.
So, this is not "correct" by any means, but it is more correct than the actual table. In the past it has been a good tool to estimate the final points, but naturally we need another or so for this to gain some reliability.
Points per game in the table, as the number of matches may vary a lot.
We can say that RoPS deserve their lead, and the bottom two have started the league very poorly.
| RoPS | 2,18 |
| HJK | 1,88 |
| KuPS | 1,58 |
| Lahti | 1,50 |
| SJK | 1,33 |
| Inter | 1,25 |
| AVG | 1,24 |
| TPS | 1,23 |
| VPS | 1,10 |
| Honka | 1,07 |
| Ilves | 0,85 |
| Kemi | 0,53 |
| MIFK | 0,43 |
23.4.2018
Ykkönen 2018 outright odds
by local bookie.
Have to say that I disagree quite strongly with a few of these, but naturally outright market is not the most interesting - or useful - one.
A lot of the teams with better player material have huge problems with the manager side, KPV being a prime example.
HIFK and JJK are the ones who got relegated from Veikkausliiga after last season, KTP, Kajaani and Klubi-04 all promoted from Kakkonen. KTP only after OPS had been kicked out from the league all together for various reasons.
Veikkaus
Unibet
Have to say that I disagree quite strongly with a few of these, but naturally outright market is not the most interesting - or useful - one.
A lot of the teams with better player material have huge problems with the manager side, KPV being a prime example.
HIFK and JJK are the ones who got relegated from Veikkausliiga after last season, KTP, Kajaani and Klubi-04 all promoted from Kakkonen. KTP only after OPS had been kicked out from the league all together for various reasons.
Veikkaus
Unibet
Odds for round 1
Recovery days
I am not always on the same page with Verheijen, but as this research confirms strongly the problem some - or most - clubs face regularly in Veikkausliiga which has one of the toughest schedules in all Europe.
Two days rest is not enough if your opponent has even one day more. Simple as that.
http://worldfootballacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/WFA_Study-on-recovery-days.pdf
Two days rest is not enough if your opponent has even one day more. Simple as that.
http://worldfootballacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/WFA_Study-on-recovery-days.pdf
Veikkausliiga April 25th
Watching Liverpool - Roma last night gave me some insight and good example of all that is wrong at Inter Turku when things get bad. Trying to defend with 3 center-backs and two lazy wing-backs leads you easily to big problems, especially if the defending midfielders fail partly too. Roma got destroyed under immense pressure, but in the case Inter it does not have to be quite that strong.
Lineups:
RoPS: cb Hämäläinen injured, replaced by weak Geffrard. Top attacking duo Lingman-Lappalainen rotated.
Lahti: Top striker Anier suspended for one game.
VPS: keeper change, last season's shaky nr 1 Meerits returns.
Ilves obviously doing some rotation, Tamminen, Aspegren and Tanska would start in my team.
Inter only meaningful change is striker Furuholm --> Ademi.
HJK start first time with Egyptian striker Gamal, CB Obilor returns, mf Annan injured, mf/striker Valencic benched as usual, Klauss rotated, Pelvas and Alho still starting which is kind of amazing given their poor performances.
MIFK still without most important mf Petrovic and another key man Sparrdal Mantilla and I see their future hopes rather gloomy. Pitch still almost unplayable natural grass.
KuPS about unchanged since last time after the injuries of Nissinen and Karjalainen. Murillo and El Said are the players to follow.
22.4.2018
Veikkausliiga review 23.4
After matchweek 3, or 4, as some clubs have played a few rounds extra to free some space for the european cups.
Expected points table below after 3-4 matches, points per game. At this stage a lot depends who you have met, but it will settle nicely after a few more weeks.
| club | Avg/pg |
| RoPS | 2,25 |
| HJK | 1,90 |
| Lahti | 1,73 |
| Inter | 1,53 |
| SJK | 1,45 |
| KuPS | 1,35 |
| AVG | 1,27 |
| TPS | 1,20 |
| VPS | 1,13 |
| Honka | 0,93 |
| Ilves | 0,70 |
| Kemi | 0,53 |
| MIFK | 0,50 |
HJK
A rare - and pretty much deserved home loss vs KuPS. There have been questions of why Valencic has such a little role in the attack as he is the most dangerous player, also Gamal is getting only ridiculous amount of minutes. A tiny problem with wingers, Mensah and Alho have not really convinced. Klauss have played perhaps too much recently, time for some rotation. Annan and Pirinen injured vs KuPS, no info of how badly.
The role of playmaker Mosa has been very very free, he has been roaming freely at both wings.
Neither of the keepers Uusitalo or Rudakov have fully convinced either.
Still, HJK have ridiculous width and quality in the player material, but there is some room for improvent for sure.
KuPS
KuPS have two absolutely top class players in El Said and Luis Murillo, and those two built the KuPS goals away at HJK. Before the win there were some worried faces at KuPS because of mediocre performances and results, but now they are relaxed again, and KuPS perhaps is the 2nd best team in the league after all as the markets had predicted. Badly missed Gabriel should return soon.
A couple of injuries at HJK match, will see how bad they are. Df Nissinen and mf/att Savolainen.
RoPS
Manager Koskela from Klubi-04 has all the reason to be satisfied. The bad signings who played a lot at preseason have been benched for good, the roles of the players and the new possession-based playing style works miracles. There are half a dozen quality players at RoPS and until they hit injury crisis there is no need to be afraid of a bump in results. They are a good team who play well round after round. Key players gk Reguero, df Taiwo, mf Kuate, Lingman and Lappalainen, but every one seems to have stepped in class.
Inter
It is again a roller-coaster at Inter even if a lot of personnel has changed. There is always a bad performance after a solid one and they remain the most unpredictable team of these all. They could had won the derby vs TPS especially if the first minute goal would not had been disallowed, but the first half was all TPS after that and 2nd half better performance was not enough as they could not find the net. Defensive problems continue as not everyone does not seem to good or interested enough in the defense and even the gk made horrible dives. Over-team for sure.
SJK
The well-critisized manager Kautonen was suspended and SJK played their best performance of the season. Coincidence maybe... or not. Klinga scored twice in the 2-0 deserved win over Honka, he usually scores one per season. Hard to predict, the player material for top-3 definitely is there.
Lahti
Easy 2-0 win over Ilves despite - or with the help - of Lahti striker Anier's red card. Defensively they are a solid pack, but Anier is a big part of the attack. Injured key players returning to starting lineup and despite a horrible preseason and some big questionmarks here and there Lahti might be rather high in the table. Not one of the teams though that you would like to back with a negative handicap.
Ilves
So far a bottom-3 team performance-wise, and very hard on the eye as they concentrate on killing the opponents strengths. Personally I try to avoid watching Ilves matches in full, and seeing their highlights is a quick project!
Honka
They have been hard hit with injuries in the early season, but the opponents take them very seriously even if they are a promoted team. Striker Ömer got now injured on first half, and some key midfielders are still out. Javi Hervas badly missed. Deserved loss away at SJK, performances still ok but surely they need a win soon.
VPS
2-2 away at poor Mariehamn bad natural grass, did not expect a great game and it was not, but the goal at first minute opened it up a lot more than expected. Surprisingly - or perhaps not - the loanees from Sion reserves are the key players of the team atm. VPS look like a bottom half team, despite their managers ambitious - and unrealistic - hopes of VPS playing Barcelona-like football. The material is midtable at best.
TPS
TPS had deserved something out of first two, and they kept their good record vs Inter. Terrible finishers in the attack, and not much width in the team but they are better now than generally expected and will win more games. Semi-deserved win over Inter despite being rather badly under pressure for the 2nd half.
MIFK
The signings for the season are all just work-horses and there is very little if not zero key players in the team. The Superettan Swedish midfielders make no difference, the defense is completely changed for once solid times, the keeper is not the best in the league and even if the striker Kangaskolkka is a quality lad he rarely sees the ball. Bottom-3 now, and I see no reason why it would change in the future.
Kemi
No question of the weakest player material in the league, and honestly they can not afford to make foolish changes like benching their nr 1 keeper Forsman. Very little talent in the player material, most paid soldiers from elsewhere and although they will a game every now and then they will be underdogs in almost every match, also at home. Being a dog might eventually help them occasionally if they are humble enough. Hard to find a player there who would start in any other team, apart from keeper Forsman.
Highlights came be found always somewhere at this page, I also put a permalink to it.
https://www.ruutu.fi/urheilu
http://www.veikkausliiga.com/uutiset/2018/04/23/istv-huippuhetket-sunnuntain-ifk-mariehamn-vpssta?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Tilaa:
Blogitekstit (Atom)














