HIFK vs HJK 30.9 - the big derby

Very hard to see HIFK to get more than a point, and at the same time seeing HJK to win anyone these days always comes as a surprise, even if they are top of the league and play home! Big absentees at HJK; Taiwo, Tanaka, Jallow, Alho, Sorsa. Medo already left the team.

At HIFK no surprises,but top mf Väyrynen may possibly miss the game or at least his mind may be elsewhere as his wife is about to give birth to a new child.

Hopefully a good atmosphere again without too much damage to passers-by, betting-wise a tough call.

This big derby has now been 5 times. There is one HJK win while the rest are all draws and the expected class difference has not showed. They share the sold-out Sonera stadion so neither is the the home team ever.

SJK vs KuPS

SJK odds rising today, not sure why. KuPS without top striker Salami and keeper Kreidl. There were a few rumours that there are big enough injuries at SJK to keep a few key players out but it does not seem to be the case, but to add up to suspensions KuPS have also benched Onobi.

SJK desperately hunting the win and 1-0 would do, KuPS hopes of a point rely on 0-0 so a rather dull match to be expected unless SJK score early enough.

SJK in good form, KuPS have earned a lot more points recently than what they deserve.

SJK -0.75@ 1.8 or more.

SJK (and Ilves) playing the best football of league at the moment. The league situation means that there are only "must-wins" left for the top 4 teams as introduced in this article.

Veikkausliiga title race 2016

I have been simulations all morning of how this will in the end, bur the reality is that it will all decided on final match day at round 33.

		R29	R30	R31	R32	R33
HJK	53		HIFK	MIFK	Ilves	SJK
MIFK	51		PK-35	HJK	Lahti	Ilves
Ilves	50		Lahti	HIFK	HJK	MIFK
SJK	46	KuPS	Kemi	Lahti	PK-35	HJK

away.

If - and when - HJK will not win the title for the 2nd year in a row it is kind of all-time low. The resources have been massively bigger than anyone for decades, the markets have seen them as 90% winners and over-estimate HJK strongly.

HJK performances have been bad, they suffer from injuries, bad coaching, bad atmosphere and fans are unhappy.

Ilves and SJK play the best football at the moment, my estimations show huge value in SJK title(14 at local) and if they can handle their 4 next matches as expected they should be on the top after match day 32.

Updated Veikkaus title odds before the SJK vs KuPS match:

MIFK are the other club who have expected "sure win" as they too will host PK-35.

Ilves too have everything in their own hands and their last two rounds are BIG games!

For the first time one can say that the Veikkausliiga fixture list was a success.

Reasons to suspect of a foul play of a few in Finland at season 2016

I removed some key data from these charts, including dates and club names, but they are here as an example of why there is a strong reason to suspect some of the players involved in this club have been part of a match manipulating scheme. We are talking about Asian handicap odds here, and anyone familiar with the markets know that there has been key information out at an easily identified point.

Unfortunately I can not open up the info in these charts in any more detail, these are just a sample of data which is available from legal markets.

In a nutshell; if there is such a strong trend towards kickoff it means that there is very good reason to believe that a certain outcome is going to happen, in one way or another. In all of these cases the key factor was that the suspected players were added (or removed, or both) in the official lineup. The interesting fact is that when they were removed from lineup of team A the odds of team A dropped significantly and the other way around; when they were added to the lineup the odds of the team rose even if the players in question should had been the 3 best players on the pitch.

FIN U18 vs Poland 8.10 and 10.10 at Urjala and Tampere

Juuso Särkelä OLS

Samu Laitinen HJK

Kristian Heinolainen IF Gnistan

Joona Rahikka KäPa

Juho Montola TPS

Valtteri Vesiaho HJK

Nikolas Saira FC Espoo

Eero Hyökyvirta HJK

Marcus Forss West Bromwich Albion

Onni Valakari SJK

Timo Stavitski HJK

Miika Töyräs KuPS

Martti Haukioja Ilves

Joel Mattsson IFK Mariehamn

Miikka Leinonen FC Espoo

Paavo Voutilainen FC Lahti

Albion Ademi FC Inter

Miko Virtanen Everton FC

FIN U20 vs Swe and Den in Oct 2016

Markus Uusitalo  HJK 

Paavo Valakari  SJK 

Roni Peiponen  HJK 

Thomas Mäkinen  IFK Mariehamn  

Leo Väisänen  PK-35 Vantaa 

Akseli Kalermo  AC Oulu 

Lauri Ala-Myllymäki  Ilves 

Obed Malolo  HJK 

Mikko Kuningas  FC Lahti 

Oskari Jakonen  TPS 

Saku Savolainen  KuPS 

Santeri Hostikka  FC Lahti 

Paavo Valakari  SJK 

Anselmi Nurmela  AC Oulu 

Arttu Hoskonen  FC Inter 

Sebastian Dolivo  KTP 

Sebastian Dahlström HJK 

Ilmari Niskanen  KuPS 

Urho Nissilä  KuPS 

Elias Ahde  FC Haka 

Rasmus Karjalainen AC Oulu    

Lassi Järvenpää  RoPS 

Joonas Vahtera  VPS  

PK-35 vs HIFK

JJK vs Jaro

JJK biggest missing is Manninen and he has been a key factor as always. Jaro without Soto.

Jaro in better form, JJK performances vary more. Yet still home, and full motivation for both. Tough.

27 rounds will be played.

Lineups Sept 12th: VPS vs KuPS

Team news:

Lineups Sept 12th: Inter vs HIFK

Team news:

Lineups Sept 12th: RoPS vs SJK

Team news:

Lineups Sept 12th: MIFK vs Kemi PS

Team news:

Lineups Sept 12th: HJK vs Lahti

Team news:

Lineups Sept 12th: PK-35 vs Ilves

Team news:

Markets:

Veikkausliiga Sept 9th

A full round and all teams still motivated enough - even PK-35, to try their best.

There are new faces and journeymen here and there and their effect remains to be seen.

FIN U18 squad vs Czech Sept 8th and 10th

 Juuso Särkelä  OLS 

Samu Laitinen  HJK 

Kristian Heinolainen Gnistan 

Joona Rahikka  KäPa 

Juho Montola  TPS 

Valtteri Vesiaho  HJK 

Nikolas Saira  FC Espoo 

Eero Hyökyvirta  HJK 

Marcus Forss  West Bromwich Albion 

Saku Ylätupa  HJK 

Timo Stavitski  HJK 

Miika Töyräs  KuPS 

Martti Haukioja  Ilves 

Joel Mattsson  IFK Mariehamn 

Sharp Räsänen  KuPS 

Paavo Voutilainen FC Lahti 

Eetu Vertainen  HJK 

Miko Virtanen  Everton FC

Veikkausliiga all stars team August 2016

 (4-4-2):

                                                    Johannes Kreidl (KuPS)

Albin Granlund (IFK M) – Marc Vales (SJK) – Babacar Diallo (KuPS) – Zeljko Savic (PS Kemi)

Mikael Soisalo (Ilves) – Mika Väyrynen (HIFK) – Joona Veteli (PS Kemi) – Jussi Vasara (SJK)

                                    Erik Törnros (PS Kemi) – Njazi Kuqi (Inter)

Player of the month: Erik Törnros (PS Kemi)

Manager of the month: Jari Åhman (PS Kemi)

Historical day Sept 5th: Finland vs Kosovo!

Too bad I have no clue what is going to happen, same applies to the markets in general according to market behaviour:

Big enough markets: