28.2.2010

U21 Friendly 3.3.2010 - Czech Rep vs Finland

Edit: FT 1-0

U21 team of Finland are already out of the Championships, but why not practise when it is time, and there is another chance to meet a good team. This age group of Finland is far from as good as the previous one was and who made it all the way to the finals, but there are a couple of promising players however. Unfortunately my eye sees mostly weaknesses  in every department of this team, not strengths.

I am not too keen on publishing any figures for this; it is a friendly and I do not know more about the Czech team that they are a quality team. Home win, but by which hc? No bet most likely unless something dramatic comes up.

03-03
16:59
Czech Republic U21
Finland U21
 -(1 / 1.5)   2.06   1.84   (2.5 / 3)   1.93   1.95 

Finland:
Gk
Lukas Hradecky, Esbjerg fB, 24.11.1989, 6 / 0
Juha Tuomi, FC Lahti, 07.11.1989, 1 / 0

Def
Paulus Arajuuri, FF Kalmar, 15.06.1988, 9 / 0
Markus Joenmäki, Haka, 11.02.1988, 2 / 0
Jani Tanska, VPS, 29.07.1988, 6 / 0
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK, 12.03.1990, 4 / 0
Henri Aalto, FC Honka, 20.04.1989, 6 / 0
Ville Nikkari, FC Inter, 05.11.1988, 9 / 0

Mf & att
Toni Kolehmainen, TPS, 20.07.1988, 7 / 0
Sebastian Mannström, FF Jaro, 29.10.1988, 10 / 0
Sakari Mattila, Ascoli Calcio, 14.07.1989, 7 / 0
Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka, 14.3.1990, 1/0
Joni Kauko, FC Inter, 12.07.1990, 6 / 0
Jani Virtanen, TPS, 06.05.1988, 6 / 0
Mika Ojala, FC Inter, 21.06.1988, 15 / 2
Jonne Hjelm, Tampere United, 14.01.1988, 6 / 4
Akseli Pelvas, HJK, 08.02.1989, 10 / 1
Niko Ikävalko, Haka, 24.04.1988, 3 / 0

Found a  list of names from the Czech FA for anyone interested . There was also an interview about the West Ham gk who seems confident that he is going to be in the first team soon.


REPREZENTACE 21 - Hráčský kádr


Jméno/Name        Nar./Birth  Klub/Club    Starty / Góly „U-21“
Matches / Goals „U-21“


Brankáři/Goalkeepers:
Marek Štěch 28. 1. 1990 West Ham United 1 / 0
Tomáš Vaclík 29. 3. 1989 Vítkovice 1 / 0

Obránci/Defenders:
Lukáš Vácha 13. 5. 1989 Baník Ostrava 2 / 0
Ondřej Mazuch 15. 3. 1989 Fiorentina 10 / 1
Ondřej Čelůstka 18. 6. 1989 FC Tescoma Zlín 1 / 0
Jan Hošek 1. 4. 1989 Slavia Praha 1 / 0
Jan Halama 14. 7. 1988 FC Viktoria Plzeň 2 / 0
Jakub Heidenreich 27. 4. 1989 SK Sigma Olomouc 1 / 0
Jan Lecjaks 9. 8. 1990 FC Viktoria Plzeň 3 / 0
Radek Dejmek 2. 2. 1988 FC Slovan Liberec 0 / 0

Záložníci/Midfielders:
Petr Wojnar 12. 1. 1989 Baník Ostrava 1 / 1
Bořek Dočkal 30. 9. 1988 FC Slovan Liberec 8 / 3
Tomáš Hořava 29. 5. 1988 SK Sigma Olomouc 4 / 0
Milan Černý 16. 3. 1988 SK Slavia Praha 0 / 0
Jan Morávek 1.11. 1989 Bohemians 1905 2 / 0
Martin Zeman 28. 3. 1989 AC Sparta Praha 2 / 0
Adam Hloušek 20.12. 1988 FK Baumit Jablonec 1 / 0
Tomáš Mičola 26. 9. 1988 FC Baník Ostrava 2 / 0

Útočníci/Forwards:
Jan Vošahlík 8. 3. 1989 Bohemians Praha 2 / 1
Tomáš Pekhart 16. 5. 1989 SK Slavia Praha 11 / 6
Jan Chramosta 12.10. 1990 FK M. Boleslav 0 / 0
Michael Rabušic 17. 9. 1989 1. FC Brno 1 / 0
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International friendly Malta - Finland FT 1-2 (1-0)

Youtube

National team travel to Malta in order of preparing to...hmm.. a tough one. Meeting Holland in Euro QL? Of course it does a world of good to win every once in a while and this Wednesday is an excellent opportunity for that. The emphasis of the match is in learning to control a game and be more offensive instead of "being under siege and being strong" like head coach Stuart Baxter said in an interview at Malta.  Finland line-up is good enough to earn a bet; Finland -1 @ 2.06 in asian market. 


Edit: Dropped to 1.91 and most of the value is gone, but you never know, it might rise again.



Gk
Otto Fredrikson, Spartak Naltshik, 30.11.1981, 4 / 0
Peter Enckelman, Cardiff City FC, 10.03.1977, 11 / 0
Niki Mäenpää, Willem II, 23.01.1985, 4 / 0

Def
Veli Lampi, FC Aarau, 18.07.1984, 16 / 0
Toni Kallio, Sheffield United FC, 09.08.1978, 48 / 2
Niklas Moisander, AZ Alkmaar, 29.09.1985, 8 / 1
Jukka Raitala, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, 15.09.1988, 1 / 0
Jani Lyyski, Djurgårdens IF, 16.03.1983, 1 / 0
Markus Halsti, Malmö FF, 19.03.1984, 3 / 0

Mf & att
Tim Sparv, FC Groningen, 20.02.1987, 5 / 0
Teemu Tainio, Birmingham City FC, 27.11.1979, 50 / 6
Roman Eremenko, FC Dynamo Kyiv, 19.03.1987, 24 / 0
Mika Väyrynen, SC Heerenveen, 28.12.1981, 41 / 3
Roni Porokara, Örebro SK, 12.12.1983, 10 / 2
Joonas Kolkka, NAC Breda, 28.09.1974, 97 / 11
Kasper Hämäläinen, Djurgårdens IF, 08.08.1986, 5 / 0
Juska Savolainen, Haugesund FK, 01.09.1983, 1 / 0
Jari Litmanen, FC Lahti, 20.02.1971, 130 / 31
Jonatan Johansson, TPS, 16.08.1975, 101 / 22
Teemu Pukki, Sevilla FC, 29.03.1990, 1 / 0

Coach: Stuart Baxter

2010 Stats

I have discussed this several times, there is a good chance for you to get better results than I do using the asian handicap price limits given and probably no one gets exactly the same bets in with the same odds that I do. You can do better, sometimes you end up taking another matches or even another teams. These ones recorded are mostly friendlies and league cup matches and mentioned here, at least intended to.

January  29 -16  -   8  - 5        ROI 133,9 %
Feb       28- 14 - 1,5  - 12,5   ROI  107,4 %

Total     57- 30,5 - 9  - 17,5   ROI  118,3 %

The number of total bets pretty much tells it all, these stats tell nothing. However, if we take into account last season´s 106 % and the fact that this pre-season I have not only been in the country but also concentrated and committed to this project fully a ROI of 110-115 % is to be expected for the season 2010.  If you want to be a part of this foreseeable success please mail me at puntteri@gmail.com, when the season´s really with start with 1000 + matches in offer in Asian markets there will be no more free information in this scale available, not here, nor anywhere else. 

Finland League Cup Standings 27.2.2010

 Southern Group:

M  W    D     L     Goals Pts
FC Honka 4 2 2 0 10 - 6 8
HJK 4 2 2 0 8 - 4 8
IFK Mariehamn 5 2 1 2 4 - 6 7
TPS 4 2 0 2 4 - 3 6
FC Inter 3 1 1 1 2 - 3 4
MYPA 3 1 0 2 2 - 3 3
FC Lahti 3 0 0 3 2 - 7 0

Northern Group:

D   L   Goals Pts 
AC Oulu 4 3 1 0 8 - 3 10
FF Jaro 4 2 0 1 5 - 3 7
VPS 4 2 1 1 4 - 3 7
JJK 3 2 0 1 5 - 3 6
Tampere U 2 1 0 1 3 - 2 3
KuPS 3 0 1 2 0 - 4 1
FC Haka 4 0 0 4 1 - 8 0

27.2.2010

Finland League Cup 28th Feb Haka - TamU

Both teams still goalless and pointless in this Pirkanmaa derby. TamU are for sure without 4 players Aapo Lappalainen, Ilari Ruuth, Toni Järvinen and Kristian Kojola, and 3-4 others are in doubt because of minor injuries. It might sound worse than it is, none of those mentioned are key players. Haka have lost already all three matches which may come as a surprise to many. Haka have no depth in the squad, and while they have been fielding unexperienced lower league players the outcome is hardly surprising. The Haka coach Sami Ristilä is also the most likely Veikkausliiga coach to get fired first this season because of unrealistic hopes of the management. Haka are missing at least Jani Kauppila, Maido Pakk and Jaakko Juuti. New recruit from Allsvenskan Toni Kuivasto is likely to play his first match wearing Haka shirt. Still tested for the season are Echiabhi Okodugha and Ben Traore.

Haka line-up is slightly better than in the previous rounds actually the best possible for the first time this season bar Hynynen who is on the bench, but there is nothing wrong in the TamU line-up either despite the talks of the coaching staff. The price of TamU at 1.95 is too low, TamU prices seem to be on the drop, but again, I will not back Haka even if they go over the limit. A no-no team to bet under current management. My option is to take a look at live action via my agent by the pitch.


At total goal market over 2.5 @ 2.06 is about right, if there was a way  to see Haka scoring I would take it gladly.

Asian Handicap updated price limits


Haka 0: TamU 0 3.17 - 1.46
Haka 0 & +0.5: TamU 0 & -0.5 2.45 - 1.69
Haka +0.5: TamU -0.5 2.00 - 2.00
Haka +0.5 & +1.0: TamU -0.5 & -1.0 1.73 - 2.38
Haka +1.0: TamU -1.0 1.52 - 2.93

26.2.2010

League Cup review 26-27. Feb

TPS - Lahti 1-0  

First half an even match, TPS dominated the second, but needed Lahti gk to suck the goal in. Pre match asian odds obviously favouring TPS way too heavily, opening line was TPS -1.25




HJK - Inter Turku 1-1.

A classic example of how much damage a test player can do. Janne Hietanen as a center back is not to blame though I would not sign him, but the test Tunisian striker really destroyed HJK attack. Off-side all the time, moaning, demanding ball and yet being slow and clumsy. Another joke on HJK by a famous local agent, according to rumours. HJK was unwilling to work, uncreative and lacking imagination, another evidence of how much Sebastian Sorsa is needed. Inter missed a lot of players, but it did not really show except in the goal-scoring department, the equalizing goal was a horror mistake by HJK goalie Jani Viander. Opening asian line HJK-1 is acceptable in the light of injury information, but all in all the match ended up being as they always are against Inter,  a tight one.

Haka - Tampere Utd 1-3
Another dismal Haka performance. TamU - 0,5 @ 2.00 opening was a treat at hindsight despite some line-up problems. Well, other reports suggest that Haka played quite well but only lacked in the striker department. This is unfortunately the reality when there is no media that you can trust and the match is not well-covered. Another match report by a local photographer here:

Jaro - VPS 0-0
Jaro better on the first half, VPS perhaps on the 2nd. Even as expected.

MyPa - MIFK 2-0
Even game with a few goal chances, slightly controlled by the home side. Under would still be my choice.

AC Oulu - KuPS 0-0
Uneventful match, Oulu playing better though. KuPS + 0.5 @ 2.17 tremendous value.

Finland League Cup 28th Feb AC Oulu - KuPS

AC Oulu have to big surprise won all of their three league cup matches and can make some experiments in todays match against so far winless KuPS. No injury worries for Oulu, but some young players will get their chance in the starting line-up.

KuPS are a better team than the results suggest. They are missing gk Mikko Vilmunen today and Ilja Venäläinen and Samuli Kaivonurmi are doubtful. If they are missing it would be a blow for the Kuopio side, but in my papers KuPS are a better team than Oulu and the asian odds reflect too heavily the results of this unimportant competition. Vilmunen is easily replaced by Joonas Pöntinen and it does not weaken the side a bit.

Edit: Venäläinen plays and Oulu are benching some normal starters as promised. Took KuPS + 0,5 @ 2.17 very happily. KuPS with only 3 subs though.

Asian handicap price limits

Oulu -0.5: KuPS +0.5 2.22 - 1.82
Oulu 0 & -0.5: KuPS 0 & +0.5 1.80 - 2.25
Oulu 0: KuPS 0 1.51 - 2.96

Finland League Cup 28th Feb MyPa - MIFK

MyPa have lost both matches in this competition so far, without scoring. To be honest there was never too much to be expected from their travels to Inter (1-0) and HJK (2-0), but naturally not scoring is a cause for some embarrasment. MyPa coach Janne Lindberg who has never been too keen to talk to media did not want to spesify their injury situation, but probably at least striker Pele Koljonen is still sidelined. MyPa also lost a court case regarding unlawful firing of their previous coach Janne Hyppönen and need to pay a compensation of 54 000 euros, which is in this league about the average salary of player.

IFK Mariehamn won TPS 1-0, drew with Honka 1-1 and lost away at HJK 2-0, but are missing a lot of players at the moment and also their motivation for competition remains questionable.  Wilhelm Ingves, Sasha Anttilainen, Simon Enqvist and Jimmy Sundman are injured. Johan Carlsson is suspended.  Patrik Rikama and Johannes Nordström are doubtful.


Both teams are toothless in front of the goal on their best day, and I can not see any reason why this would a particularly good for either of them. Match is played outdoors and it  is definitely one of the matches I would not be rushing to see. IFK class is slightly higher, but home advantage and motivation turn things around. 0-0.


Edit: Lindberg was talking bs as usual, and MyPa doubtfuls are all playing. IFK travel with a very weak bench, but the starting eleven is good quality and I am especially pleased to see Långbacka back between the posts. IFK can not afford injuries though, 4 players on the bench, one of them is gk and another one an academy player. Price limits up soon, but I have already taken under 2.25 @ 1.95

MyPa -0.5: IFK +0.5 2.94 - 1.52
MyPa 0 & -0.5: IFK 0 & +0.5 2.34 - 1.75
MyPa 0: IFK 0 1.94 - 2.06
MyPa 0 & +0.5: IFK 0 & -0.5 1.67 - 2.48
MyPa +0.5: IFK -0.5 1.47 - 3.13

Finland League Cup 28th Feb FF Jaro - VPS

A Pohjanmaa derby played indoors. Jaro are still missing a lot of players, but that has been the case in all the matches so far in the competition and yet they have managed to win 2 out 3 matches. Maksim Vasiljev is suspended, and the injury list is long;  Heikki Aho, Papa Niang, Petter Meyer and Björn-Erik Sundqvist.  Kåre Björkstrand and Marco Matrone are doubtful.

Jaro have weakened a lot materialwise since last season, but the manager Alexei Eremenko Sr. is doing a good job with the players available, and in my opinion Jaro are far from certain to get relegated which seems to be the public opinion.

From the VPS side Valtter Laaksonen, Tony Björk, Jan Berg, Tero Koskela, Jyrki Saranpää and Brian Pope are injured.  Jani Tanska is suspended.

Even match where it is more about who is the regional champion than about the points.

Asian price limits

Jaro -0.5 : VPS +0.5 2.86 - 1.54
Jaro 0 & -0.5 : VPS 0 & +0.5 2.31 - 1.76
Jaro 0 : VPS 0 1.94 - 2.06
Jaro 0 & +0.5 : VPS 0 & -0.5 1.69 - 2.45
Jaro +0.5 : VPS -0.5 1.49 - 3.03

Finland League Cup 27th Feb 2010

Edit: Market move info. TPS -1.25 opened at about 2, but has now dropped to 1.76, which means that the markets have corrected the starting prices by one handicap. I can understand it and expected it, but do see it as overreacting. TPS could win this by four goals easily if they start the match with the right foot, but they might as well struggle and Lahti is always dangerous in the attack and a narrow win like 2-1 is as much possible. This is after all only a friendly at the best training season. And that would see all the bets - TPS -1,25, TPS -1,5 and over 3 goals - favoured by the punters to go in the drain or be void. My numbers suggest at the moment a bet for the Lahti outfit but I will let this opportunity to pass and wait for live info.


A similar drop has occurred at HJK - Inter Turku, HJK -1 from 2.04 to 1.80, but that is a much more reasoned  move and definitely into the right direction because of the serious problems in the Inter camp described below. I took HJK -1 @ 2.04 myself and perhaps I will take another bet live, this is the match where I am going to.



TPS - FC Lahti
The match will be played outdoors which lowers the goal expectactions a bit, and the big handicaps as well. Lahti defence still in shambles however and they were lucky to escape from Honka last week by losing only 4-1. I have no desire to wait for the asian bookies to open this match for the whole day, but probably place a live bet later if my agent at the pitch so recommends.

TPS -1.25  @ 2.15     - FC Lahti + 1,25 @ 1.87
TPS - 1      @ 1.89     - FC Lahti +1       @2.12
TPS - 0,75 @ 1.71    - FC Lahti + 0,75 @ 2.40
TPS - 0,5   @ 1.56    - FC Lahti+ 0,5   @ 2.78

HJK - Inter

Asian price limits - updated 10.30 CET
HJK -1.25  @ 2.23   - Inter + 1,25 @ 1.81
HJK - 1      @ 1.94     - Inter +1       @2.06
HJK - 0,75 @ 1.73    - Inter + 0,75 @ 2.37
HJK - 0,5   @ 1.56    - Inter + 0,5   @ 2.78

These are not the limits we are used to see in this top clash, but Inter are suffering hugely with injuries. Both goalies and centerbacks are out, all in all total of nine Inter players will miss this match, 8 of them are worth a place in the starting line-up!

David Monsalve, Patrick Bantamoi, Ari Nyman, Kennedy Nwanganga, Joni Aho, Timo Furuholm, Sami Sanevuori, Jan-Erik Heljander,  Daniel Antunez.

Inter have some test players from lower european leagues today- Selim Kaabi and Mahdi Tagawa - but in my eyes this is the worst Inter Turku line-up there has been in years.


 If HJK had been any sharper against MyPa and if there not was also 2 test players - Janne Hietanen in defence and Mohamed El Abed in attack - in the home side I would suggest HJK even more strongly, but the performance last time around was far from sharp, there is no need to win and the match is played indoors during the training season which make me to think back and keep the head cool.

22.2.2010

Finland League Cup home advantage

I see that also Veikkausliiga.com decided to publish this topic as breaking news, so why not discuss it shortly.

So far 19 matches played - 15 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. It would be a shocking result if

a) the sample was a lot bigger
b) the fixtures had been different. Now we have had home favourite in almost every single match.

There are a couple of factors that however should be noted. Those 2 away wins were both taken at outdoor matches (5 played so far), which means that out of 14 matches played indoors all have been winless for the away teams.

If we look at this closer there are also these things to be considered.  

Out of 14 indoor matches 8 have been hosted by Honka, HJK or IFK Mariehamn. Teams that very rarely lose either home or away, and they have played only a few away matches so far, while HJK won IFK and Honka drew with IFK and HJK.

The remaining 6 matches feature Jaro, AC Oulu and VPS all twice at home. 6-0-0 stats, which is very impressive indeed. And with a closer look of the away teams we have got Haka and KuPS twice, Jaro and TamU once each. No world-beaters away, are they? TamU losing 1-0 at VPS was a bit of a surprise to me, but even then TamU were only a 45 % favourite to win and 1X was the more likely outcome.

The pitch conditions, lightning and travel do favour the home teams slightly, but on a negative side there is no home support in the indoor arenas as they are built for training purposes only and the capacity for public is very low. However, I am ready to agree that the home advantage is bigger than during the normal season played outdoors, but how much bigger will remain a mystery. I am absolutely certain though because this sample is so small it is mostly explained by variance. Let us see what happens next weekend in the League Cup!

Finland League Cup this week 26-27th Feb 2010

There will six matches next weekend on Friday and Saturday, and I will come up with estimations and price limits later this week. Meanwhile I need to get Ykkönen and Kakkonen stats and updates in the squads in order and will be relatively quiet this week. We still have home favourites for every game, except Haka - TamU, well, perhaps VPS will also be the fav at the bookies.

Edit: The european bookies have reacted quite strongly in the league cup results, and there is no reason to back HJK for example.  Neither TPS. Could be that there is not much worth of anything this weekend, I am glad I got my Atlantis - Kalju bet in on time, one of the easiest wins for a long time with Kalju -0,25 @ 1.87, FT was staggering 1-8 and that is pretty much correct reflection of the performances. Blogger has been out of reach all day, hope it was only temporary.

26.2.2010 TPS - FC Lahti 15:00 Yläkenttä / Kupittaa 5

HJK - FC Inter 17:00 Tali
27.2.2010 Haka - TamU 13:30 Valkeakoski Sahara

MYPA - IFK Mariehamn 14:00 Lehtomäki (Kouvola)

AC Oulu - KuPS 14:15 Arina Areena

FF Jaro - VPS 16:30 Tellushalli

21.2.2010

Sunday - No matches, no updates

There are now less than 2 months until the season kicks-off, and days off will be more scarce. I will enjoy this one by staying away from the computer. Have a nice day all!

Several of my readers have sent me questions to be answered, but I will take a closer look at them next week and write up a q´s and a´s story.

If you have something in mind feel free to drop me a line to puntteri@gmail.com.