27.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.7

OLS - PK-37 50 24 26
o/u 2.5: 48 52

There's classicos and then there's these... This doesn't need many words of explanation, both are truly terrible with OLS being maybe a bit better than PK-37 so I'm not sure why the OLS line is -0,75. That's not to say that PK-37 is particularly appealing option, but I doubt we'll see many two goal victories for OLS this year with the quality of their attacking game so in worst case scenario we should get at least half of stake back. Defensively both are relative good despite their position in the table (and don't get me started on both team's goalscoring abilities), so under is an obvious choice too, but given that neither team does not afford to lose this and thus an early goal would seriously ruin the under I'll keep the stakes a little lower.

PS Kemi - KPV 70 17 13
o/u 2.5: 62 38

No asian odds for this, I would have been interested in PS Kemi as they've again been excellent at home (if we disregard AC Kajaani game, where they had plenty of injuries) and their form has been pretty good lately (they always seem to underperform in Oulu, so I wouldn't put too much weight on their last game). KPV is a good team but outside the first YPA game they've been mostly outmatched by better teams so I would have gladly taken -0,75 or even -1 if it had been available.

GBK - AC Kajaani 26 22 52
o/u 2.5: 57 43

AC Kajaani keeps grinding out results in a true Jarmo Korhonen style, their latest victim was YPA and with Kemi stumbling they're still firmly in contention for the promotion play-offs spot. It's perhaps better if I don't try to guess what GBK will be up to today as in their latest games they've played the complete opposite way that I thought. Purely on a hunch level GBK win looks very unlikely because ACK just seems impossible to beat right now, but on the other hand they do have plenty of potential for draws (not surprising considering their low-scoring games) and as ACK rarely destroys their opponents I had some slim interest in GBK +0,75. However, the odds are pretty lousy in Sbobet so I think I'll skip the handicap. Total seems impossible to predict, the goal average for the last five AC Kajaani is actually under 1 (!) while GBK latest few matches have had impressive 5.5 goals per game, maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle but with 3.0 line I'd definitely lean towards the under.

OLS - PK-37 +0,75 2 57% 1,92 5/10 188Bet
OLS - PK-37 U2.75 58% 1,92 2,5/10 188Bet
GBK - AC Kajaani U3.0 55,5% 1,83 1/10 Sbobet (Obligatory Korhonen bet)

24.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 24.7

FC YPA - TP-47 65 20 15
o/u 2.5: 56 44

YPA seemed to display a better performance against AC Kajaani than what they did in OLS game, but that was not enough against a team of ACK's caliber. To put it kindly, opposing TP-47 did not go well last week as they completely dominated GBK. I suspect GBK might've been tired after their midweek game (maybe I'll learn to take those in account next year... ) or it was just one of those wild Kakkonen form swings. In any case, TP-47 has now played two good games after a long string of poor results and displays. YPA should, however, still be much better than TP-47 so they're clear favorites at home, but I'll be a little bit more cautious with YPA today. I had some interest in yesterday's euro odds for O2.5 mainly due to TP-47 recent games, but the asian line 2.75 is perfectly set. YPA has been far from that high-scoring team that they've usually been known of, and as an interesting statistical tidbit they've only had two games with more than three goals this year (and even those were the first two).

JBK - OPS 32 23 45
o/u 2.5: 59 41

If JBK was a strangely big favorite against PK-37 last week you could say the same about the odds of this match. The only thing holding me back, and which has been mentioned multiple times this year, is the fact that OPS does not always display their A game against poor opponents, which JBK is undoubtedly one of. The disaster of GBK match was completely forgotten last week as OPS took a 2-0 win against PS Kemi, although they were lucky in the first half as Kemi had couple of very good chances. Overall the win was not completely undeserved as they played suffocating defense in the second half in which Kemi did not manage to do anything until the very last minutes of the game. The return Koponen to the goal was a steadying influence as there were no memorable gk blunders as there were often with Keskinen. If you look at the last half a dozen JBK games it's clearly evident that they're not an easy team to beat. Though it's almost impossible to get reliable information on their home games, I don't think it's complete coincidence that the results have always been very tight. On the other hand, after 15 games they only have one win, and the opponent was OLS... so yeah, I think OPS +0,25 is a no brainer here.

FC YPA - TP-47 -0,75 1 60% 1,78 4,5/10 188Bet
JBK - OPS O2.75 54% 1,95 4/10 188Bet
JBK - OPS +0,25 2 63,5% 1,71 7/10 Dafabet

21.7.2014

Example of crazy Kakkonen: KuFu-Myllypuro

Hi!

My name is Antti and I'm full time bettor specialized in Finnish football. Puntteri has kindly given me the opportunity to write entries in his site so here we go. This text was published in my blogabet site yesterday the first time and it's worth putting here as well as I'm sure some you might find it interesting.

This is an example how everything isn't always like it seems in Kakkonen - and how even the best picks can go terrible wrong.

On 19 July 2014 Kufu played against Myllypuro. Match end 1-2 (1-0 58'; 1-1 83'; 1-2 89').

KuFu is the reserve team of KuPS (Veikkausliiga) and often gets players from them. That was the case also yesterday. Tero Taipale, Sami Räsänen, Saku Savolainen, Joona Kemppainen, Joonas Ojantie and Jani Mahanen were in the starting XI and Ilmari Niskanen on bench. Old-gun Taipale and youngster Savolainen are regulars in KuPS and the rest are more or less bench material. Anyway the point here is that KuFu had extremely good lineup in their standards. KuFu's lineup has changed a lot during the season; they've usually struggled to get players on away trips while playing home their lineup has been much better. With the lineup they had in this match they'd be roughly a mid-table team.

Myllypuro has reborn from the season opener and they've got multiple new players since then. With the current squad Myllypuro is lower-mid table/close to bottom team. They were extremely bad to beginning with and currently they can cause problems for any team (i.e. top team MP drew 2-2 against Myllypuro on 6 July and was close losing the match). Myllypuro like to keep their matters even more in the dark than most of the other Kakkonen clubs. In this match they had really hard time to get even enough players in the lineup.

In this match Myllypuro didn't have any substitute players at all. To fool around, they named several substitutes in the "official" Finnish FA's site. I've understood that none of them were really with the team. I't noteworthy that they've named even their owner/manager Alexander Hyppönen in the bench. He's a midle-age man who has some history in football but I'm not too familiar with his that side. 1 minute googling shows that he played one match in Atlantis in 1996 and perhaps that's enough information...

This match opened in Asia with KuFu-0.25@2 and the odds were gone during the day. I didn't see what the exact odds were when the game started at 19.00 but already hours before that not better than -0.25@1.6 was available. I managed to get some bets in myself with -0.5@1.90 and was really happy with those. Couldn't offer it to my subscribers (lucky for them) as there was really nothing left to offer as no bigger lines was available either.

As being said, I was expecting Kufu to win this match. There was a heat wave in Finland and Finns are pretty bad coping with heat. Thus it was safe to assume that at least close to end Myllypuro will get tired and that will know problems for them. Well, I didn't see a second of the match but after KuFu scored their first goal at 58' I thought there will be more to come though didn't expect Myllypuro to equalize at 83' and to score a winner at 89'...

Here's the link for the official site with lineups and other such http://palloverkko.palloliitto.fi/Live/stats/Fixtures.aspx?fixtureID=XmEw7XJSxZ6MI4kQte5XDQ==&matchID=vzP4XlVFC23iQ5++2Zn8Uw==

I didn't write this to boast with bad luck or for any such reasons. I haven't seen the match and don't know if the away win was deserved after all. Just wanted to provide you an example how Finnish low leagues might differ from what you've used to with bigger leagues.

Sincerely,
Antti / akaa89.blogabet.com

20.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.7


TP-47 - GBK 33 22 45
o/u 2.5: 64 36

TP-47 seems to have been unlucky to not get a draw from AC Kajaani, but then again their reports always tell the same tale and it's not like it was the first time AC Kajaani won against the run of play. TP-47 has certainly been one of the biggest disappointments this year, after their long string of draws to start the season I would've expected them to right their ship but their lone wins are still against hopeless PK-37. After OPS game even I can't disregard GBK anymore, they've played two games less than Kemi so they could have an outside to promotion if they can keep this up, but I doubt they can seriously challenge PS Kemi and AC Kajaani in the long run. For today I think they deserve to be regarded as favorites, the season is past its halfway point so it's not exactly a fluke that GBK has picked up double the amount of points than TP-47. With GBK fresh in mind I'm somewhat confident with the over, at least this game clearly looks like the most probable game today to have goals.

KPV - OLS 75 18 7
o/u 2.5: 53 47

KPV continues to grind out results worthy of their preseason predictions, or in other words they're safely stuck in the upper middle table. OLS winless streak has now reached double digits and I doubt it will change today either, but in betting terms it doesn't make it any easier. I haven't seen KPV this year, but it seems like it's not a total coincidence that their games have been won or lost by very slim margins. I've been burned on one goal OLS losses multiple times this season, and even though -1,25 appeals a lot I think I'll take a pass with KPV -1,25. Perhaps one option would be to wait for a while to see if you can get -1 or preferably -0,75, because despite some promising OLS performances in the last two games the class difference should still be very much in favor of KPV. Total is a different story, under is an obvious choice because of OLS ineptitude in attack and KPV's general low-scoring nature.

PK-37 - JBK 31 24 45
o/u 2.5: 52 48

This is not available in Asian markets, so only brief notes. While their record is no doubt awful, until last Wednesday PK-37 had rarely been blown out and if the reports are not entirely inaccurate they haven't been that much behind their opponents. You could say the same about JBK who have made life hard for many good teams, though unlike PK-37 who doesn't seem to even pretend to attack JBK at least tries to do something else than just park their bus. If you just look at the records the current odds for JBK look insane meaning that they should not be worthy of 1,75 level odds. I won't argue against JBK being favorites but unless there's some heavyweight Jaro guys coming in to help I'd say the only option is PK-37 +0,5 or pass, I just don't see the class difference being as big as the odds suggest. As PK-37 tells in their preview that they're going back to defensive approach after Wednesday's massacre the under could be worth a try, U2.5 2,25 is available in a few places.

AC Kajaani - FC YPA 52 23 25
o/u 2.5: 50 50

Naturally the most interesting match of the round. AC Kajaani's performance still don't seem to raise much praise, but they've mastered the art of getting a result, or at least avoiding any defeats. For a team of YPA's stature the 0-0 draw against OLS should be considered a really poor result, however, they've not done much wrong for the past two months so perhaps they can be excused for one slip up. I have tiny interest on AC Kajaani as I'd rate them slightly better than YPA but the threat of draw looms so large with AC Kajaani and -0,5 that I'm not going to get involved pregame. You don't need me to tell you that this looks like a very underish game, both teams have been rock solid defensively and neither has done that much scoring, at least compared to PS Kemi. Just by hunch I'd say there's some value in U2.5 at odds of 1,90 or above, but I'm not going to "officially" recommend it.

TP-47 - GBK +0.0 2 57,5% 1,80 4/10 188Bet
TP-47 - GBK O2.75 60% 1,89 6/10 Sbobet

19.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 19.7

OPS - PS Kemi 26 21 53
o/u 2.5: 66 34

The legendary GM of OPS has already received a long suspension, GBK game provided plenty of more as there were multiple controversial refereeing decisions in that game too. However, it's no use complaining too much about last week, GBK kept their nerves and won deservedly as they were able to convert their chances and OPS were not. The suspensions for Richardson and Juntunen (who has actually contributed something this year) will complicate OPS situation, but they do have a good enough replacement in defense for Richardson. Another player issue has been the injury of Koponen since Keskinen hasn't been as good this year (edit: Koponen actually returns today). PS Kemi is flying high at the moment which should be expected given their squad quality. That said, I'm not really digging the -0,75 line, that is essentially a -1 with the low odds. Instead, I'd veer more towards OPS as they've proven multiple times that they can play equal games against the very best teams. Since it's still July this will be available in live, so I'd prefer to take a wait and see approach with the handicap. The last few games of OPS (not counting YPA first half) have been pretty crazy, and it hasn't been a coincidence that there has been so many goals scored. PS Kemi has also found their scoring form lately so I'm feeling fairly confident with the over especially when the line is so low (not a surprise considering the season we've had).

OPS - PS Kemi O2.75 62% 1,73 5/10 Sbobet

13.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 13.7

OPS - GBK 54 21 25
o/u 2.5: 61 39

Two teams going in opposite directions. OPS has had some luck recent games but considering how unlucky they were before that I'd say they've deserved at least some of those fortunate fortunes. GBK has now lost twice which is not entirely unsurprising when keeping in mind who they played. However, overall they've played way over their heads lately anyway and while I don't think they'll have to worry about relegation too much this year I'd say the table is quite misleading in this match. OPS is the better team here and the odds are good enough, though I'd have much preferred -0,25. I was eyeing over on this but the odds are not that appealing, so maybe that will be left for live (you could say the same about handicap bets since neither team has bothered to release any team news).

TP-47 - AC Kajaani 16 20 64
o/u 2.5: 52 48

This is more of a play against TP-47 rather than for AC Kajaani. The home team does get couple of players back from PS Kemi game, but most of the things said then should still apply for them meaning that TP-47 is not a good team right now. AC Kajaani has been almost impossible to beat but as you can see from their results draws have started to seriously haunt them. A shootout looks very improbable to happen all things considered (okay, only Jarmo Korhonen) so under is an obvious choice too.

TP-47 - AC Kajaani U2.75 54% 2,00 1,5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - AC Kajaani -0,75 2 59% 1,80 4/10 188Bet
OPS - GBK -0,5 1 54% 1,96 4/10 Sbobet

12.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 12.7

PK-37 - KPV 15 20 65
o/u 2.5: 51 49

There's actually no Asian odds available today, how quickly the summer goes... Oh well, tomorrow looks more interesting from a betting standpoint anyway. KPV played without some key players vs AC Kajaani, namely Myntti and Tshibasu. PK-37 had some important players missing too in their latest game, which by coincidence was also against AC Kajaani. Both matches finished 0-0 but naturally that doesn't mean that PK-37 is anywhere near KPV's quality. Odds, however, are looking uninteresting for the visitors so perhaps the under could offer more value. Scoring has been difficult for PK-37 all season long, and KPV's games have not had many goals in them either, especially in the last month.

JBK - PS Kemi 15 17 68
o/u 2.5: 64 36

PS Kemi seems to have hit the stride lately and JBK despite their first win should not be that tough of an opponent. But just like with today's other game game, the odds are very likely so poor that I don't think you'll find much value in the away win. Over could be a more interesting option, along with PS Kemi's improvement goals have come in bunches too, and even if the recent results don't show it I still believe JBK is at least an average team when it comes to totals.

6.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 6.7

OLS - OPS 17 21 62
o/u 2.5: 53 47

Until some derby magic happens like in the last game between these two I'm not confident that OLS will get anything today either. They've made some adjustments to their playing style but the JBK game was same stuff, just in a different kind of package. OPS results have been pretty average overall, but they're playing much (okay, maybe not that much) better than what their overall record or form shows. 1,80 is nothing to get crazy about, but enough to make OPS appealing. I'll be on the venue tweeting updates, so the more cautious can wait for those.

KPV - AC Kajaani 32 24 44
o/u 2.5: 52 28

ACK will probably open as -0,25 favorites which would mean this would be easily skippable. Even 44 % feels a bit too high for ACK, whose performances have not been that convincing despite their good record. KPV's only losses have come against the top three in away games, so one could say they're just where they deserve to be. Either way, getting any value would require some serious adjusting with estimations so I'll wait for better games.

OLS - OPS -0,75 2 57% 1,84 3,5/10 Sbobet (would always prefer to play OPS with a + or zero handicap due to their habit of playing to their opponent's level, but obviously that's not an option today)

5.7.2014

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 5.7

JBK - FC YPA 21 20 59
o/u 2.5: 60 40

JBK finally took their first win last week when they beat OLS quite convincingly 1-0. I'm trying to not read into it too much as OLS is such a poor team right now, but this will by no means be an easy task for YPA. YPA's last match seems to have been just as even as it was expected, in some other day KPV might've been able to grab a draw but this time YPA took the full 3 points. European odds look almost the same as mine, and unlike two weeks ago when AC Kajaani visited JBK I don't think I would bother with -0,75.

PS Kemi - TP-47 75 15 10
o/u 2.5: 64 36

These two met few weeks ago and TP-47 was completely destroyed by PS Kemi then. Not much has changed since that game and having gotten a fresh look of TP-47's current form I can't put much trust on visitor's today. I was down on PS Kemi last week but they did end up having a thoroughly dominating performance against GBK. TP-47 can't be said to be better than the teams that PS Kemi have faced recently (although TP-47 has shown some promise in their last two games) so I'm crossing my fingers for a -1,25 line. PS Kemi should be almost at full strength after going through numerous injuries and suspensions lately, TP-47 on the other hand will miss a few starters.

PS Kemi - TP-47 -1,25 1 60% 1,73 4,5/10 188Bet (a little extra stake due to gut feeling)