27.4.2018

Kakkonen 2018


Groups A & C start this weekend, Group B next.

Odds from local bookie below, some euro bookies have also offered something, but they have mixed up even some club names... Now local odds are not 100% correct, but in general "always" better than euro books.

As usual there will be some clubs who are more or less reserves of some teams, and there will be sudden market moves if and when there is info and players coming in from the first team.

MyPa/KTP
FCV/JJK
PKKU/FC Lahti
KuFu/KuPS
SJK2
JBK/Jaro



26.4.2018

Veikkausliiga April 28-29th



Busy schedule continues, most clubs played on Wednesday, and as you the rest period here is too short, and the pace of the matches in general is very slow.


Inter rotating, 5 reg starters benched. Honka finally get some creativity to starting-11 in Kaufmann.




Local odds:




Sportmarket PRO:



Veikkausliiga xP table after matches April 25th


Yes,

there are dozens of ways to calculate xG, and another dozen to lead them into xP - expected points.

In short my method is based on expected goal count, but only until the match is decided. What it means is that any goals into empty net do not count. There is also some adjustment which respects the result. After all winning a match is also a skill of its own.

So, this is not "correct" by any means, but it is more correct than the actual table.  In the past it has been a good tool to estimate the final points, but naturally we need another or so for this to gain some reliability.

Points per game in the table, as the number of matches may vary a lot.

We can say that RoPS deserve their lead, and the bottom two have started the league very poorly.




RoPS2,18
HJK1,88
KuPS1,58
Lahti1,50
SJK1,33
Inter1,25
AVG1,24
TPS1,23
VPS1,10
Honka1,07
Ilves0,85
Kemi0,53
MIFK0,43

23.4.2018

Ykkönen 2018 outright odds

by local bookie.

Have to say that I disagree quite strongly with a few of these, but naturally outright market is not the most interesting - or useful - one.

A lot of the teams with better player material have huge problems with the manager side, KPV being a prime example.

HIFK and JJK are the ones who got relegated from Veikkausliiga after last season, KTP, Kajaani and Klubi-04 all promoted from Kakkonen. KTP only after OPS had been kicked out from the league all together for various reasons.



Veikkaus




Unibet


Odds for round 1





Recovery days

I am not always on the same page with Verheijen, but as this research confirms strongly the problem some - or most - clubs face regularly in Veikkausliiga which has one of the toughest schedules in all Europe.

Two days rest is not enough if your opponent has even one day more. Simple as that.

http://worldfootballacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/WFA_Study-on-recovery-days.pdf

Veikkausliiga April 25th


Watching Liverpool - Roma last night gave me some insight and good example of all that is wrong at Inter Turku when things get bad. Trying to defend with 3 center-backs and two lazy wing-backs leads you easily to big problems, especially if the defending midfielders fail partly too. Roma got destroyed under immense pressure, but in the case Inter it does not have to be quite that strong.

Lineups:

RoPS: cb Hämäläinen injured, replaced by weak Geffrard. Top attacking duo Lingman-Lappalainen rotated.

Lahti: Top striker Anier suspended for one game.



VPS: keeper change, last season's shaky nr 1 Meerits returns. 

Ilves obviously doing some rotation, Tamminen, Aspegren and Tanska  would start in my team. 



Inter only meaningful change is striker Furuholm --> Ademi.

HJK start first time with Egyptian striker Gamal, CB Obilor returns, mf Annan injured, mf/striker Valencic benched as usual, Klauss rotated, Pelvas and Alho still starting which is kind of amazing given their poor performances.




MIFK still without most important mf Petrovic and another key man Sparrdal Mantilla and I see their future hopes rather gloomy. Pitch still almost unplayable natural grass.

KuPS about unchanged since last time after the injuries of  Nissinen and Karjalainen. Murillo and El Said are the players to follow.






22.4.2018

Veikkausliiga review 23.4


After matchweek 3, or 4, as some clubs have played a few rounds extra to free some space for the european cups.


Expected points table below after 3-4 matches, points per game. At this stage a lot depends who you have met, but it will settle nicely after a few more weeks.


clubAvg/pg
RoPS2,25
HJK1,90
Lahti1,73
Inter1,53
SJK1,45
KuPS1,35
AVG1,27
TPS1,20
VPS1,13
Honka0,93
Ilves0,70
Kemi0,53
MIFK0,50


 RoPS, HJK and Lahti top the xP-table, Ilves, Kemi and MIFK are the bottom, but it is only early days.

HJK

A rare - and pretty much deserved home loss vs KuPS. There have been questions of why Valencic has such a little role in the attack as he is the most dangerous player, also Gamal is getting only ridiculous amount of minutes. A tiny problem with wingers, Mensah and Alho have not really convinced. Klauss have played perhaps too much recently, time for some rotation. Annan and Pirinen injured vs KuPS, no info of how badly.

The role of playmaker Mosa has been very very free, he has been roaming freely at both wings.

Neither of the keepers Uusitalo or Rudakov have fully convinced either.

Still, HJK have ridiculous width and quality in the player material, but there is some room for improvent for sure.


KuPS

KuPS have two absolutely top class players in El Said and Luis Murillo, and those two built the KuPS goals away at HJK. Before the win there were some worried faces at KuPS because of mediocre performances and results, but now they are relaxed again, and KuPS perhaps is the 2nd best team in the league after all as the markets had predicted. Badly missed Gabriel should return soon.

A couple of injuries at HJK match, will see how bad they are. Df Nissinen and mf/att Savolainen.



RoPS

Manager Koskela from Klubi-04 has all the reason to be satisfied. The bad signings who played a lot at preseason have been benched for good, the roles of the players and the new possession-based playing style works miracles. There are half a dozen quality players at RoPS and until they hit injury crisis there is no need to be afraid of a bump in results. They are a good team who play well round after round. Key players gk Reguero, df Taiwo, mf Kuate, Lingman and Lappalainen, but every one seems to have stepped in class.



Inter

It is again a roller-coaster at Inter even if a lot of personnel has changed. There is always a bad performance after a solid one and they remain the most unpredictable team of these all. They could had won the derby vs TPS especially if the first minute goal would not had been disallowed, but the first half was all TPS after that and 2nd half better performance was not enough as they could not find the net. Defensive problems continue as not everyone does not seem to good or interested enough in the defense and even the gk made horrible dives. Over-team for sure.


SJK

The well-critisized manager Kautonen was suspended and SJK played their best performance of the season. Coincidence maybe... or not. Klinga scored twice in the 2-0 deserved win over Honka, he usually scores one per season. Hard to predict, the player material for top-3 definitely is there.



Lahti

Easy 2-0 win over Ilves despite - or with the help - of Lahti striker Anier's red card. Defensively they are a solid pack, but Anier is a big part of the attack. Injured key players returning to starting lineup and despite a horrible preseason and some big questionmarks here and there Lahti might be rather high in the table. Not one of the teams though that you would like to back with a negative handicap.

Ilves

So far a bottom-3 team performance-wise, and very hard on the eye as they concentrate on killing the opponents strengths.  Personally I try to avoid watching Ilves matches in full, and seeing their highlights is a quick project!

Honka

They have been hard hit with injuries in the early season, but the opponents take them very seriously even if they are a promoted team. Striker Ömer got now injured on first half, and some key midfielders are still out. Javi Hervas badly missed. Deserved loss away at SJK, performances still ok but surely they need a win soon.


VPS

2-2 away at poor Mariehamn bad natural grass, did not expect a great game and it was not, but the goal at first minute opened it up a lot more than expected. Surprisingly - or perhaps not - the loanees from Sion reserves are the key players of the team atm. VPS look like a bottom half team, despite their managers ambitious - and unrealistic - hopes of VPS playing Barcelona-like football. The material is midtable at best.


TPS

TPS had deserved something out of first two, and they kept their good record vs Inter. Terrible finishers in the attack, and not much width in the team but they are better now than generally expected and will win more games. Semi-deserved win over Inter despite being rather badly under pressure for the 2nd half.


MIFK

The signings for the season are all just work-horses and there is very little if not zero key players in the team. The Superettan Swedish midfielders make no difference, the defense is completely changed for once solid times, the keeper is not the best in the league and even if the striker Kangaskolkka is a quality lad he rarely sees the ball. Bottom-3 now, and I see no reason why it would change in the future.



Kemi

No question of the weakest player material in the league, and honestly they can not afford to make foolish changes like benching their nr 1 keeper Forsman. Very little talent in the player material, most paid soldiers from elsewhere and although they will a game every now and then they will be underdogs in almost every match, also at home. Being a dog might eventually help them occasionally if they are humble enough. Hard to find a player there who would start in any other team, apart from keeper Forsman.


Highlights came be found always somewhere at this page, I also put a permalink to it.

https://www.ruutu.fi/urheilu

http://www.veikkausliiga.com/uutiset/2018/04/23/istv-huippuhetket-sunnuntain-ifk-mariehamn-vpssta?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Veikkausliiga 22.4 - RoPS vs Kemi, MIFK vs VPS




20.4.2018

Veikkausliiga 21-22.4


It is getting busier, 4 of the clubs played on Wed, and as you well two days of rest between games is not enough for recovery.

Two of the new signings/loanees in Veikkausliiga are bigger than usual starts, both El Said (KuPS) and Gamal  (HJK) have more than 1 million followers in the social media.

Garcia returns. Inter have good attack, TPS does not.



SJK not rotating enough, Honka gotten a few important players back to squad - El Amrani, Kauffman and Obra, but still miss a few.


Last season's best keeper Vasjutin makes a comeback, Ilves missing natural left back.




HJK rotating half a squad, only big miss cb Obilor. KuPS complained about tiredness already last time, still not rotating enough.










18.4.2018

Veikkausliiga lineups 18.4 / SJK vs HJK & KuPS vs RoPS


SJK attempting to find optimal lineup, and it is a good start that they have benched Bååth, Sarajärvi and Tolonen. 

HJK rotating a bit, top playmaker Mosa returns and young Vesiaho has his turn as a center-back. Annan, Patronen and Valencic rested this time, and probably Rafinha not just quit yet in match fitness, but there are no weak links at HJK squad.




KuPS introducing Rexhepi as a center-back. Physical and prone to errors, but strong in battles both in the air and on the ground. El Said continues in starting lineup. Coulibaly was weak last time as a full-back, but there is not much choice on the bench as Nissinen has failed too. KuPS badly missing Reuben Gabriel.

RoPS are still strong, but the bench is rather short of quality options. Taiwo to score tonight?


Markets ( Sportmarket.com) 25 minutes after lineups are published:







17.4.2018

Veikkausliiga round 2 review


HJK

Massively disappointing performance away at Mariehamn, and they have to happy with the 0-1 win. Everyone should be available, including winger Alho who has been suspended for the first two rounds.

SJK away next on Wed, the matches last season did not leave much speculation at the home side, and scoring a goal would be considered as progress!


SJK

Winning over promoted TPS with late goals on neutral ground, and having lost badly at the xG-markets is nothing to cheer about. Again there were badly roled players, and the change into better came only after late substitions when dead wood was taken out and some brains and skill in.

SJK still badly miss winger/striker Ions, but as I have repeatedly mentioned the main problem is totally elsewhere than in the player material.

Hosting HJK on Wed. Well...

KuPS

KuPS fielded the newcomer El Said from the start and he failed to impress yet, although a top player he is for sure. KuPS made a few defensive mistakes, and missing the axis of cb and defensive midfielder shows at times rather badly. Losing 1-2 at neutral ground was nothing new, as they have not won Ilves in 12 consecutive matches or so.

Next RoPS at home. Tough one.

RoPS

Another strong performance by RoPS and the puzzle of the new manager Koskela has been solved. He did great job at Klubi-04 for some years, and now at RoPS he has several of his youngster available and there are some long-term pairings, like the axis of Lingman-Lappalainen. Quality signings too in Taiwo and Kuate, and the only worry is really that beyond starting - 11 there is not much quality available. If they remain injury-free we can expect a strong season season and good finish, with injuries it would be something else.

Facing KuPS has never been easy for RoPS, but at least they have started this season perhaps better than ever and the experiments of preseason are gone.

******
More to come.




15.4.2018

Veikkausliiga lineups 15.4.2018

Note that only Honka have a real home match, all others had to change venue. Kemi play at Rovaniemi, TPS at Valkeakoski and Ilves at HJK's home stadion in Helsinki.


Best market odds from Sportmarket:




Honka - Lahti

Honka benching top striker Ömer and Nimely comes in. To be honest I am hoping Nimely will be good soon - he definitely has the potential - but I would had benched Borjas instead. Two players returning from injury list, but not the most important ones and there is a big hole in the midfield when Hervas, Kauffman, Korhonen and Tammilehto are still out.

Lahti relies heavily on Anier's danger in the attack, but one of last week's best midfielders young Jäntti is replaced by Gela who is somewhat a prototype of a midfielfer lacking a bit of everything, but good enough to play almost anywhere. Probably they try to help the defense, last week the midfield did not impress defensively.

The outcome? Hell no idea. First natural grass match for both, but unlike Mariehamn the pitch seems to be in excellent form for April. Lahti is unbackable though until they get their defense in order, and I am not holding my breath.




Kemi - Inter

Kemi were lucky to face SJK last week, and also lucky not to lose as the xG was heavily against them. However they were better than expected, and probably they have about the chance markets are giving them.

Inter were unlucky to lose, but they also missed 3 key players and now Varmanen and Penninkangas are back, and they can have "normal" wingbacks today.  Inter are on my shortlist, but I like this take a look at this first in case I am totally wrong with Kemi's class.

Looking solely at material Inter should win this.






Ilves - KuPS

Ilves look like fielding a defensive lineup with super boring defensive attitude. KuPS will control this, but breaking the defense might take some time.

KuPS give debut to Egyptian nr 30 who is a quality lad for sure, but he came just this week and there are a lot of things he has to get used in a very short time. Still, he should be the best striker in this league. KuPS have had their defensive worries too, and any other team than Ilves would be almost guaranteed to score.

Dunno, but interested to see  El Said to score like an Egyptian.





TPS - SJK


TPS practically unchanged from what they always do, SJK joker of a manager have managed to bench their best player Hetemaj because he does not succeed at position 10 where he has been forced to play recently.  The owner´ s son Jesse Sarajärvi starts too, you can guess why, but let us say that I do not see him starting in any other Veikkausliiga club.

TPS had dozens of chances vs Lahti. The question is was it because of Lahti, or improved TPS attack? Unfortunately none of TPS strikers know where the goal is. 

The outcome? The markets have been quite wisely been avoiding SJK today, but I can not see TPS winning this either. Probably wisest thing to do is to watch and learn.







8.4.2018

Veikkausliiga review, match week 1/2018


Outright odds with a handicap at local bookie before the season, although HJK odds dropped to 6 after publishing these opening odds.



Club & round  overview:


HJK
Expected performance and result vs Ilves. HJK take their time in controlling the game, and then step up on gas on 2nd half if needed, and contrary to other clubs all substitutions in general improve their game as the width in material is huge. Filip Valencic was the hero this time with 2 goals after coming in late, but it could had been also someone else. HJK can afford to bench Valencic who has been the one of the top players of the league for a few seasons now.

New recruit Klauss from Hoffenheim/2 seems like an excellent find in the attack, and the Egyptian international Gamal might very well to be a super class player for this league as well.

Next MIFK away, the natural grass is a slight worry, MIFK themselves in current form are not.

*****

Ilves
They are in desperate need of a striker, or two, or three and despite the early lead away at HJK they were never close of getting any points. Defensively a solid unit though, and for a neutral football the most boring club of the country who are heading to another low-scoring season. New recruits are already on their way, the class remains a mystery but origin is African.

Next hosting KuPS, but not at home but at HJK's stadion because of the bad pitch situation at Tampere.

****


SJK
A shocking home loss vs weak Kemi, but as the whole club is a disaster waiting to happen it was not that shocking after all. If we rely on xG only they can even call themselves unlucky as it was roughly a 1.5 - 0.5 match, but as usual there was no truth in what the soon to be fired manager Kautonen said "we had enough chances to win two matches".

SJK is badly built, they are short of wingers. They are also badly roled, for example their best defending midfielder Hetemaj has been a number 10 recently and even an idiot would see that it is a bad idea which is not working... oh well, actually the idiot did not see it..

Next SJK will face TPS away, another relegation candidate, and if they manage to lose this one as well then the hell is loose at Seinäjoki City.

****

PS Kemi
After a horrible preseason and almost 100% change in player material since last season Kemi was again doomed for the drop, but luckily for them they got the pleasure of visiting SJK at Seinäjoki. Kemi performed a lot better than usual, but they also scored from their almost only chance, and gk Forsman was again needed to do a couple of game savers. Kemi will annoy the general public by winning matches every now and then, but personally I am far from impressed and let us see how it goes.

Next they will host Inter, but it will be played at Rovaniemi. Pitch problems at home, something to do with the snow. Maybe they still surprise, maybe not. Not so sure anyway about how weak they are than what was generally thought before the first round.


****

IFK Mariehamn
They were defensively almost ok until the first RoPS goal was scored, but after that their weakness in the Superettan reject player material showed and they could not challenge RoPS at all when needing a goal. Important mf Petrovic got injured early on.

Bad preseason behind them, and I do not see much promise in any of the new signings for this year, and they might well be closer to relegation battle than top-4.

Next HJK at home. The only advantage they have is their small natural grass pitch, but it is going to be a very long 90 minutes for MIFK.

****

VPS
VPS have been the talk of the league for a few seasons because of their very stubborn approach to ball possession even if the player material is not really up for it. They survived the early threat of Inter, and perhaps a bit undeservingly won 2-0 an even match where Inter very short of a few key players of their own. VPS had benched their gk Meerits in favour of young Volotinen who kept the clean sheet despite being at times all over the place in his box and saved purely by luck.

Next hosting RoPS, and it is more interesting than it would be at first glance as both won their opening game, and it is hard to say what to expect.


****

Honka
Honka were missing half a dozen regulars, most of them midfielders and it was no surprise that KuPS dominated the first half. On 2nd half though it turned upside down and KuPS were happy with the point, they both were. They will get their injured players back one by one, week after week. Probably Hervas, Kauffman and Obradovic first, but all should be back in months time or so.

Looking rather good at Honka camp, a solid preseason behind them and they can follow their own style of play vs anyone, and they even beat HJK away in the cup a few weeks back. Injury situation is the biggest worry.

Next hosting Lahti who played a total coast-to-coast encounter with TPS. Lahti who once were proud of being a good base for domestic players these days host 8 or so foreigners in the starting lineup, and everyone at the city is not happy.

****

KuPS
They were rather big favourites vs Honka, but had to settle with a point in the end. The biggest news at KuPS is the loan deal with an Egyptian top international striker, who on paper is perhaps the best ever foreigner in Veikkausliiga.

Next Ilves, at HJK's home arena in Helsinki. A lot of interest in Abdalla's debut!

****

Inter
Without a pre-warning Inter were completely without wingers in this match, 3 of them injured/ill, the fourth one placed as a center-back. No surprise that not much happened at the wings vs VPS, yet they had enough chances to win the game. The chosen replacements for the winger position were poor, and a worrying sign of manager Piccareta's skills really. Why put the pitches slowest man as a winger? Would you do that?

Next Kemi away, and the wingers are needed to secure a win.

****

TPS
At preseason and at last season a very underish and well-defending team game a huge show vs Lahti, and they should had scored a few already by half-time. A lof of had to do with Lahti defense line being high at the pitch, but there was some promise that TPS might be able to be competitive in this season's Veikkausliiga as well despite everyone expecting them to relegate. Young Onni Valakari at midfield is the to follow. 

Next hosting SJK, and this might be a perfect time to shake the giants one more time as the organization is a mess, but material-wise of course the class difference is huge. Not hosting at home, but at Valkeakoski so the home advantage is lost.


International early markets at Sportmarket:



Local odds at Veikkaus:





Highlights:

VPS - Inter

KuPS - Honka

HJK - Ilves

SJK - Kemi

Lahti - TPS

RoPS - MIFK


FIN matches week 9-15.4

A few new leagues starting, but unlikely to feature at betting markets just yet. Some venue changes at Veikkausliiga and the home advantage will be lost, could be more to follow!


10.4.2018finazewu19qlMyyrmäki18:30
11.4.2018PK-35 VantaaTiPSWomen liiga18:30
14.4.2018HJKÅland UnitedWomen liigaTelia 5G Areena, Helsinki15:00
14.4.2018HPSVIFKWomenYkkönen
14.4.2018Kufu98TuWeWomenYkkönen
14.4.2018JyPKTPSWomen liiga15:00
14.4.2018FC HonkaTiPSWomen liigaEsport17:00
14.4.2018VPSRoPSVLVL16:00
14.4.2018TPVPKKUWomenYkkönen
14.4.2018RoPSPK-35WomenYkkönen
14.4.2018IlvesPallokissatWomen liiga16:00
14.4.2018AtlantisKäPaclubfriendlyJärvenpää16:15
14.4.2018NJSKiffenclubfriendlyKlaukkala14:00
14.4.2018PEPOJippoclubfriendlyLpr14:00
14.4.2018KaaPoJazzclubfriendly
14.4.2018GBKIK MyranWomenYkkönen
14.4.2018LPSHonka AkatemiaclubfriendlyHertta15:00
14.4.2018IFK MariehamnHJKVLVL16:00
14.4.2018FC Sport-jFC HerttaWomenYkkönen
14.4.2018HIFK/2EspooclubfriendlyJärvenpää14:30
14.4.2018SalPaclubfriendly
15.4.2018TPSSJKVLVLValkeakoski15:00
15.4.2018ONSPK-35 VantaaWomen liigaHeinäpää PH TN16:00
15.4.2018IlvesKuPSVLVLSonera15:00
15.4.2018FC HonkaFC LahtiVLVL15:00
15.4.2018PS KemiFC InterVLVL15:00