31.7.2009

VPS - FC Lahti preview


VPS (10th) – Lahti (8th)


VPS: 3-0-1-0-3-0 ------ Lahti: 0-3-1-1-1-3

H2H: 5-3-12

Last game 7.5.2009 Lahti – VPS 0-0


Edit: update! Lahti rests a lot of players, Litmanen stays home, Fofana suspended, Toivomäki and Moilanen injured. Take VPS!

VPS results have been like a roller-coaster lately, and the coach Petri Vuorinen described his team as junior team because of the inconsistency. Also the captain Tero Koskela finds room for improvement;” against Honka we tried be active and press them hard. It was not the most succesful of strategies, ” he says about the 3-0 loss at Honka last week, which came after a 3-0 victory away at Haka.

VPS have no new injuries since last week and have almost the full squad available.

FC Lahti have been travelling a lot lately. During last week they have been both in Lapland to meet RoPS and in Belgium to play Brugge in the Europe League. In their european fixture they managed a promising 3-2 loss, and in order to keep their european hopes alive for the 2nd leg at home on Thursday they will rest as many players as possible. The star Jari Litmanen 9/0 is not likely to travel to Vaasa at all and the other key striker Rafael will probably start on the bench.

It does not necessarily mean that are giving up or that will lose for sure, against RoPS they did the same thing and managed to get away with a valuable 0-1 win. The only absentee for sure is md Fofana 15/3 who is suspended.


VPS: 1 Henri Sillanpää 12/0 - 8 Jani Lyyski 16/1 – 11 Toni Hahto 12/0 – 19 Jan Berg 16/0 – 3 Lawrence Smith 12/2 – 7 Tero Koskela 14/1 – 14 Jens Nygård 16/3 - 22 Tony Björk 16/1 - 10 Antonio Inutile 15/3 – 23 Jyri Hietaharju 15/1- 20 Rikard Lindroos 11/1

Bench:9 Jussi Aalto 9/1, 25 Pekka Kainu 11/0, 12 Henrik Moisander (gk) 6/0, 4 Jussi Äijälä 11/0, 6 Petteri Forsell 9/1

Unavailable: 2 Jan Ahlvik 0/0 & 24 Benjamin Slotte 0/0, 16 Jyrki Saranpää 14/1

Coaches: Juha Reini & Petri Vuorinen



FC Lahti: 22 Juha Tuomi (gk) 6/0 – 15 Jukka Vanninen 14/0 – 21 Kaarlo Rantanen 6/0 -12 Toni Huuhka 12/1 – 6 Kalle Eerola 13/0 - 13 Jussi Länsitalo 8/2- 20 Jonne Kemppinen 14/2 – 11 Drilon Shala 16/5 – 14 Konsta Hietanen 15/0 – 19 Riku Heini 11/0 - 17 Eero Korte 16/2

Bench:16 Jussi Heikkinen 2/0, 9 Rafael 14/3, 2 Heikki Haara 13/1, 1 Viktor Szentpeteri 10/0

Unavailable: 7 Jukka Veltheim 2/0 for the rest of the season, 10 Jari Litmanen 9/0?, 8 Mohamed Fofana 15/3 suspended, 3 Henri Toivomäki 16/0, 4 Janne Moilanen 6/0

Coach : Ilkka Mäkelä

Prediction: Definitely time to act with Lahti resting so many players. They managed to get an away win at RoPS with luck and RoPS is even worse team than VPS, but definitely value in VPS-0,25 @ at 2.05 Sbobet!

KuPS - Jaro preview

KuPS (14th) – Jaro (9th)


KuPS: 0-0-3-0-1-1 ------------- Jaro:1-1-0-0-1-0

H2H:3-3-9

Last game 7.5.2009 Jaro – KuPS 1-1

KuPS are getting some fresh blood into their squad. Dickson Nwakaeme 1/1 who was suspended due to permit reasons after playing only once in their winning game against RoPS and being the man of the match is again allowed to play, and another Nigerian mf Raphael Udah has signed a contract with KuPS and is likely to play against Jaro on Sunday.

KuPS have found their act together and are seriosly fighting for survival. They have gained important points lately and drew 2-2 with IFK Mariehamn last time, but more importantly their performance on the pitch has started to look like it should for a Veikkausliiga team. There are no new injury worries except mf Tuomas Kuparinen 12/0, though defender Balazs Balogh 11/1 is doubtful.

The away team Jaro was winless in July and the coach Mika Laurikainen is cautious ahead of the game, ” KuPS have strengthened the team since we last met in May, and I am not expecting this to be very easy, ” he says.

Jaro have also signed a new defender, German Tillman Grove who will play for Jaro for the first time on Sunday as the transfer window has finally opened in Finland. Jari Sara 0/0 and mf Marco Matrone 8/0 are out injured, def Jens Portin 16/0 is suspended and mf Daniel Fellman 8/0 will miss the game due army duties. Gk Markus Koljander 13/0 returns from suspension.



KuPS: 1 Ville Iiskola 14/0 – 8 Tero Taipale 16/0 – 20 Miikka Ilo 15/1 - 3 Janne Reinikainen 15/0 - 4 Patrik Turunen 12/0 – 15 Ollo 12/0 – 11 Pele Koljonen 13/3 – 10 Ilja Venäläinen 14/3 - 27 Segun Ikudehinbu 4/0 - 7 Miikka Turunen 14/2 - 26 Dickson Nwakaeme 1/1

Bench: 17 Jussi Kolari 0/0, 23 Jussi-Pekka Savolainen 13/0, 12 Joonas Pöntinen (gk) 2/0, 24 Atte Hoivala 6/0, 6 Tuomas Kuparinen 12/0, 22 Jyrki Juvonen 1/0, 13 Betim Aliju 9/0, 28 Raphael Udah 0/0, 9 Balazs Balogh 11/1

Out: 5 Jani Hartikainen 10/0 for the rest of the season, 21 Jesse Miettinen 0/0, 2 Joni Nissinen 1/0

Coach: Esa Pekonen



Jaro: 1 Markus Koljander 13/0 – 6 Janne Vellamo 15/0 - 5 Kristian Kojola 16/2 – 2 Jani Tanska 16/1 - 10 Jonas Emet 16/3 – 16 Papa Niang 15/2 – 17 Petter Meyer 15/1 - 18 Mikko Hyyrynen 14/3 – 19 Sebastian Mannström 16/4 – Tillman Grove 0/0 – 23 Joonas Laurikainen 16/3

Bench: 9 Björn-Erik Sundqvist 3/0, 30 Jesse Öst 0/0, 11 Jani Koivisto 6/1, 13 Jani Sarajärvi 2/0, 2, 26 Tommi Haanpää 0/0, 12 Vitali Teles (gk) 2/0, 3 Heikki Aho 8/0

Unavailable: 8 Jari Sara 0/0, 21 Daniel Fellman 8/0, 22 Jens Portin 16/0, 7 Marco Matrone 14/1

Coach: Mika Laurikainen

Prediction: Due to team news and trends KuPS was one of my early picks in this even game, but the odds of KuPS ml have dropped and are not that interesting anymore.

Could be anything, but KuPS have been slightly underestimated here, if my arm was twisted I would go for a KuPS win here.

Haka - JJK preview

Haka (3rd) – JJK (12th)


Haka: 3-1-3-0-0-1 -------- JJK : 0-0-0-0-3-1

H2H:0-1-0

Last game 07.05.2009 JJK – Haka 0-0.

The teams have met so far only one in the history and no goals are yet to be seen as the first round match JJK was a goalless draw. Haka form at home has been lately worrying, in last 3 home matches Haka have not scored at all, and as JJK have scored only 4 away goals in the whole season there might be another dull encounter ahead. Haka was leading the table for some time, but the talks for a championship seemed to be premature.

Haka is still looking for striker to solve their goal-scoring problems, and the transfer window in Finland is open for the month of August.

”There are no weaknesses in JJK team and we have to be careful wíth the Korean striker Nam, ” says Haka coach Olli Huttunen, ” our last game away at HJK was excellent, and if we can keep that style and fight as much we should win, and we need to win if we want to be on the top.”

Haka ended their contract with Dutchman Hans Deniessen 5/0, Diego Corpache 15/1 will be unavailable for the rest of the season due to knee injury, Antti Hynynen 15/4 is doubtful because of flu, and Jari Nikkilä 14/0 has been busy with army duties and is doubtful. Jani Bäckman 8/1 returns to FC Honka after his loan time expired.

Monday night´s game against TPS last round showed that there is still fighting spirit in the JJK team and they managed to steal a late equalizer by a lucky goal, and that result has lifted the self-confidence of the club who have been doomed to get relegated in some media. They are not playing particularly well, but it is the points that count.

JJK new signing Georgij Hristov looks very much like an out-of-form player and is no fast solution for the attack problems. JJK have also signed another Macedonian player but he is probably not featuring against Haka yet.

JJK have no new injury worries.

Haka: 1 Janne Korhonen 16/0 – 20 Sami Ristilä 12/1 - 3 Petri Viljanen 10/0 - 21 Pietari Holopainen 12/5 - 22 Jarno Mattila 16/1 - 6 Sebastian Strandvall 16/4 - 7 Mikko Innanen 16/2 – 11 Antti Hynynen 15/4 - 10 Mika Mäkitalo 15/2 - 8 Jani Kauppila 16/0 - 9 Niko Ikävalko 13/2

Bench:12 Saku Pesonen (gk) 0/0, 18 Jari Nikkilä 14/0, 4 Markus Joenmäki 6/0, 14 Valeri Minkenen 4/0

Unavailable: 5 Kalle Parviainen 0/0, 15 Nicolas Kivistö 6/0, 28 Hans Denissen 5/0 (rest of season, freed from the contract), 2 Diego Corpache 15/1 (injured for rest of the season), 16 Jani Bäckman 8/1 (back to Honka after loan time)


Coach : Olli Huttunen

JJK: 30 Mihaly Szerovay 13/0 - 3 Janne Hannula 8/0 - 5 Ik Kuyng Nam 14/4 – 7 Anssi Viren 15/1 – 9 Mika Lahtinen 15/3 – 10 Tommi Kari 15/4 – 14 Jukka Sinisalo 14/0 – 19 Christian Sund 13/0 – 13 Tuomas Latikka 14/0 - 6 Jukka-Pekka Tuomanen 9/0 – 11 Georgij Hristov 2/0

Bench: 31 Antti-Jussi Karnio (gk) 3/0, 12 Sami Myllymäki 0/0, 8 Matti Lähitie 11/0, 21 Toni Koskela 14/0, 4 Markus Paija 7/0, 18 Zakaria Abahassine 10/0, 16 Niko Markkula 7/0

Out: 15 Antto Tapaninen 0/0, 24 Niko Kautto 0/0, 17 Hyun-Kwan Kim 4/0 left the team

Coach : Ville Priha


Prediction: Looks like a narrow home win, 1-0 is on the cards. Personally I do not rate either of the teams too highly, but Haka is a 65-70 % favourite in this match. Perhaps there is value in JJK + 1.5 or other handicaps? I will look at them later.

MYPA - Honka preview

MyPa (11th) – Honka (4th)

MyPa: 3-0-0-3-0-0 --Honka :3-3-1-1-1-3

H2H: 3-2-6

Last game 7.5.2009 Honka – MYPA 0-0 (at neutral Finnair stadium)

MYPA have been toothless lately getting wins only against the bottom teams, and they also managed to lose to KuPS at home in the Cup game. No wonder the coach Janne Lindberg is getting worried,” everything looks good on the training pitch, but we have not succeeded in bringing the good things to the matches. We have to be more determinent in front of both goals.”

MYPA are finally getting back important defender Sampsa Timoska 5/0 and the only players missing are the youngsters who have been on loan at Kakkonen teams KTP and MP, but who are of no importance.

Honka played Europe League game on Thursday and most of the players looked very tired despite the rotation made by the coach Mika Lehkosuo, and the line-up for the MYPA remains a mystery as Honka want to travel to Azerbaidzan with as many rested feet as possible. The match fitness of striker Aleksandr Kokko 13/0 and mf Rasmus Schüller 9/1 is in doubt, mf Nicholas Otaru 13/2 should return after recovering from minor injury.

Striker Jani Bäckman 8/1 returns from his loan spell Haka, and is welcomed with open arms. Long-term patients Markus Paatelainen 0/0 and John Weckstöm 6/1 are still unavailable.

Lehkosuo might borrow some players from the youth and reserve team Pallohonka, but that information is not yet available.


MYPA: 1 Antti Kuismala 14/0 – 4 Antti Uimaniemi 15/0 – 11 Ilari Äijälä 12/3 – 13 Toni Lindberg 12/2 – 16 Toni Huttunen 15/1 - 6 Tuomo Könönen 14/0 - 8 Ady 11/2 – 2 Miikka Multaharju 14/0 - 7 Ben Webster 14/0 – 9 Saku Puhakainen 15/0 – 19 Maxim Votinov 12/2

Bench: 5 Jarno Tuunainen 1/0, 15 Ville Oksanen 14/0, 12 Mika Johansson (gk) 1/0, 14 Tosaint Ricketts 11/5, 23 Niko Nakari 5/0, 24 Nebi Mustafi 9/1, 18 Tuomas Aho 14/0, 3 Sampsa Timoska 5/0
Unavailable: 20 Felipe Benevedes 2/0 (loaned out to MP)


Coach : Janne Lindberg



Honka: 1 Tuomas Peltonen 11/0 - 2 Sampo Koskinen 12/0 - 13 Ville Koskimaa 8/1 - 5 Henri Aalto 10/0 - 6 Hermanni Vuorinen 16/11 -14 Jussi Vasara 16/1 - 10 Jami Puustinen 15/4 - 26 Jaakko Lepola 11/4 - 17 Demba Savage 14/2 - 19 Rami Hakanpää 15/1 – 21 Joel Perovuo 16/2

Bench: 27 Konsta Rasimus 1/0, 12 Janne Henriksson (gk) 6/0, 15 Aleksandr Kokko 13/0? , 20 Nicolas Otaru 13/2, 11 Hannu Haarala 7/0, 3 Roope Heilala 11/0, 28 Rasmus 9/1?

Out: 8 Markus Paatelainen 0/0, 7 John Weckström 6/1, 22 Tuomo Turunen 11/1 transferred to IFK Göteborg,

Coach: Mika Lehkosuo

IFK Mariehamn - HJK preview


IFK Mariehamn (5th) – HJK (1st)



MIFK:3-1-1-1-1-1 ---- HJK: 0-3-3-3-1-1


H2H: 1-5-6

Last game 6.5.2009 HJK – MIFK 2-0

The home team IFK Mariehamn have lost only once this season, and it was in early May away at HJK in a game which could had turned either way. Yet they are only 5th in the league because of lack of goals and thus lack of wins. Last five games of IFK have ended in a draw. ”It was a pleasant trip to Helsinki despite the loss. One of goals was disallowed and had it been accepted also the result could had been something else, ” says IFK coach Pekka Lyyski, and continues, ” we have played well all season and stayed close to the top. Getting the best team of country, HJK, here is a good challenge and we will show are best and close the 7 point gap between HJK and us.”

IFK Mariehamn are still without striker Sasha Anttilainen 7/1 and defender Pronevych 2/0. Defender Kenneth Gustavsson 14/1 will miss the game due suspension.

HJK have lost points in two of are their last games in the League, they got embarrassingly knocked out of Europe League by Lithuanian team Vetra and most of their midfielders are out injured (Medo and Haapala for sure, Taulo is doubtful). All of this means that they did not sign HJK-legend Aki Riihilahti for nothing Swedish club Djurgården, and he is likely to feature in the midfield right away if the permits are in order by Sunday.

”I appreciate the loyalty of Aki, ” says HJK coach Antti Muurinen, ” it is important for HJK to see players coming back to their roots and serve us when in need. Also the supporters love Aki and this is a boost for the whole club”, he continues about the player who have played in Germany, England and Sweden as a professional for years.



MIFK : 29 Gustav Långbacka 16/0 - 24 Mate Dujilo 12/1 - 6 Marcus Olofsson 15/1 – 22 Alexandros Pappas 15/0 – 23 Paulus Arajuuri 14/1 – 4 Johan Carlsson 13/0 - 9 Ante Simunac 13/2 – 10 Tamás Gruborovics 16/5 – 11 Mika Niskala 16/1 –14 Arsim Gashi 14/1 - 26 Wilhelm Ingves 14/3

Bench: 15 Amos Ekhalie 8/0, 1 Willis Ochieng (gk) 1/0, 2 Dmytro Voloshyn 8/0,

Unavailable: 30 Sasha Anttilainen 7/1, 18 Dmytro Pronevych 2/0, 8 Kenneth Gustavsson 14/1 (suspended)

Coach : Pekka Lyyski




HJK: 1 Wille Wallén 16/0 – 3 Mikko Hauhia 15/0 – 5 Jukka Sauso 15/0 - Aki Riihilahti – 6 Cheyne Fowler 7/1 – 9 Sebastian Sorsa 16/4 – 10 Juho Mäkelä 16/4 - 13 Pyry Kärkkäinen 16/2 – 14 Valeri Popovits 14/3 – 17 Dawda Bah 16/5 – 20 Jukka Raitala 16/0

Bench: 2 Tuomas Kansikas 5/0, 12 Jani Viander (gk) 0/0, 21 Petri Oravainen 11/0, 26 Johannes Westö 2/0, 27 Mikko Sumusalo 1/0, 28 Nosh A Lody 0/0, 31 Akseli Pelvas 11/4, 32 Sami Salmi 0/0, 16 Jarno Parikka 15/3,18 Juhani Ojala 2/0

Unavailable:15 Paulus Roiha 3/0, 4 Mohamed Kamara 14/2, 7 Tuomas Haapala 6/0, 8 Ville Taulo 5/0 ?

Coach : Antti Muurinen

Prediction: Well then, this is no rocket science. A draw.

30.7.2009

Inter - RoPS preview

17:30 Inter (7th) - RoPS (13th)

Inter: 3-0-1-1-0-3 ----------- RoPS: 0-3-0-3-3-0

H2H 11-4-5

Last game 8.7.2009 Cup Inter – RoPS 2-0

Inter and RoPS have met already twice this season. In the league game Inter won 0-2 after an eventful game where RoPS missed two penalty kicks, and in the Finland Cup game at Turku Inter was far better, created a lot of goal chances but ended up winning by the same margin 2-0 at home.

Inter Turku coach the Dutchman Job Dratgsma wants to emphazize the mental preparation for the game as he knows they are big favourites ahead of the match;” RoPS have nothing to lose, but we have to go and take the win. RoPS are not going to hand it to us on a silver plate. Defense have beeb probably their weakest point, but there have been signs of improvement.”

Inter can field best possible line-up, there are no injuries as Pertot is rejoining the team, nor suspensions.

RoPS have played well at home and been awful at their travels having earned only 1 point away so far. They also were extremely unlucky at their last home game against Lahti which they lost 0-1, but it was not only about getting bad news says RoPS – defender Janne Turpeenniemi;” Our team defense was the best so far this season against Lahti, defense worked very well and now we know how to build it also in the future. Despite the horrible results at away games we are always going after the three points and we will do our best.”

RoPS have a full squad to choose from.

Inter Turku: 1 Patrick Bantamoi (gk)14/0 – 3 Claudio Verino 13/1 – 7 Ari Nyman 16/0 – 9 Guillano Grot 12/3 – 11 Timo Furuholm 14/5 – 14 Joni Aho 13/0 – 18 Ats Purje 12/1 – 23 Ville Nikkari 9/0 - 17 Mika Ojala 14/2 - 5 Alberto Ramirez 14/1 - 29 Henri Lehtonen 15/0

Bench: 8 Touko Tumanto 8/0, 20 Arttu Seppälä 1/0, 21 Pablo Gomez-Marttila 0/0, 27 Kennedy 14/1, 25 Ville Mäkilä 0/0, 26 Felix Åkerlund 0/0, 6 Jermu Gustafsson 2/0, 13 Eemeli Reponen (gk) 2/0 , 15 Severi Paajanen 16/0, 12 David Monsalve (gk) 1/0, 19 Aristides Pertot 8/0, 22 Sami Sanevuori 11/0, 24 Joni Kauko 12/2

Unavailable:

Coach: Job Dragtsma


RoPS: 1 Jung-Huyk Kwom (gk) 15/0 – 4 Stephen Kunda 16/0 – 5 White Simwanza 14/0 – 6 Joonas Ikäläinen 16/2 - 3 Marko Koivuranta 8/0 - 11 Chileshe Chibwe 15/2 - 10 Chanda Mwaba 16/1 - 30 Echiabhi Okodugha 16/4 - 18 Christopher Musonda 16/3 - 8 Nchimunya Mweetwa 7/0 - 17 Ville Syväjärvi 13/0

Bench: 2 Godfrey Chibanga 13/0, 9 Zeddy Saileti 12/1, 13 Jukka Yrjänheikki 3/0, 20 Juha-Pekka Inkeröinen 6/0, 19 Janne Turpeenniemi 11/0, 12 Kari-Pekka Syväjärvi (gk) 2/0, 16 Jeferson Pires 7/1, 15 Mika- Matti Maisonvaara 14/1

Out: 7 Jarno Tenkula 0/0, 22 Juuso Majava 0/0

Coaches: Zeddy Saileti & Mika Lumijärvi

Prediction; looks like a home win that is not worth a bet. Closer look before the kick-off.

TPS - TamU, TV-thriller for Friday!

TamU: 0-3-3-3-1-3 ------------------ TPS: 3-3-1-3-1-1

H2H: 4-5-10

Last game 8.5.2009 TamU – TPS 0-2

Another preview at Nordic Football Info, there will be also live commentary for those of you not in front of TV.

Both teams have refused to lose lately, but the TPS performance last Monday at JJK left a lot to wish for. Having dominated completely the first half they probably felt the game was over at half-time, and let JJK join the game in which they quite deservedly equalized at dying moments of the game with a funny goal which will surely be remembered at TPS camp. Especially now when the fire-hearted coach Pasi Rautiainen has returned from Germany where he was continuing his academic football managerial studies and he missed the JJK – match because of that.

He will be mad as hell, and the players will know it. There has been running and shouting, and no happy faces. No lazyness and poor defending and handing out important points will be allowed on Friday.

The atmosphere at Tampere United is far more relaxed and the spirits are high. The importance of the return of goal-keeper Mikko Kavén shows from the table, TamU have not a conceded a goal since his return between the posts 5 matches ago and TamU is back fighting the top-positions. Another good news for TamU is the return of Tomi Petrescu, and he scored in come-back game against MYPA and now suddenly TamU coach have options to the midfield and defense.

TPS have been lucky with absentees this season and continue with a full squad, TamU have only long-term absentees on the injury list and the fitness of mf Chris James is doubftul.

TPS: 12 Jukka Lehtovaara 15/0 – 2 Iiro Aalto 15/0 – 18 Chris Cleaver 12/0 - 6 Jaakko Nyberg 15/2 - 7 Sami Rähmönen 16/0 – 8 Jarno Heinikangas 16/0 – 9 Mikko Manninen 15/0 – 10 Riku Riski 16/4 – 28 Mikko Paatelainen 16/3 – 20 Babatunde Wusu 15/6 - 21 Wayne Brown 16/3

Bench: 3 Kalle Mäkinen 0/0, 11 Mika Ääritalo 6/2, 17 Roope Riski 0/0, 19 Patrik Lomski 6/0, 22 Jesse Saarinen 0/0, 29 Yll Hoxha 6/0, 23 Juho Lähde 0/0, 24 Jani Aaltonen 0/0, 25 Santeri Mäkinen 0/0, 27 Tuomas Markkula 0/0, 31 Alban Ferati 0/0, 14 Kasper Hämäläinen 15/0, 1 Jani Tuomala (gk) 1/0, 13 Samu-Petteri Mäkelä 8/0, 5 Simo Valakari 7/0

Out:

Coach: Pasi Rautiainen

TamU: 1 Mikko Kavén (gk) 5/0 - 18 Rafinha 16/3 - 3 Mathias Lindström 16/1 – 7 Jussi Kujala 15/1 - 17 Vili Savolainen 13/0 – 13 Sakari Saarinen 15/0- 5 Antti Ojanperä 14/1 - 22 Henri Scheweleff 15/1 – 11 Aleksei Kangaskolkka 15/3 – 30 Jari Niemi 15/0 - 20 Juska Savolainen 14/1

Bench: 21 Jonne Hjelm 15/1, 12 Juha Soukiala (gk) 11/0, 14 Jusu Karvonen 3/0, 10 Tomi Petrescu 5/1, 9 Juha Pirinen 5/0, 16 Ilari Ruuth 4/0

Out:2 Toni Järvinen 0/0, 25 Aapo Lappalainen 2/0 rest of the season, 8 Antti Pohja 7/1, 23 Chris James 2/1?

Coach: Ari Hjelm


Prediction: I have kept my confidence on TamU through the difficult times, and still rate them as a slightly better team than TPS. With home advantage TPS is a favourite in this match, but probably not wort a bet. My rough numbers for this match are

TPS - TamU 43-29-28 and TamU bets are easily found at a bookie near you. Will take a closer look here tomorrow, but my guess is that the odds for TamU will start dropping quite soon.

Edit for match day. Asian bookies are funnily more spot on with the odds than the local bookie. Veikkaus offers 4.05 for TamU away win, Sbobet knows it better and their offer 3.2 is much closer to my estimations.

Too close to be exact. With the current line of -0,25/0.25 1.87/2.05 neither of the bets is recommandable. At Sbobet. At this very moment, but as we all know, there are other bookies and odds also change.

Atlantis!

Yes, I am thick.

Bwin offers 8.25 for Atlantis at PK-35 on Sunday. This is a replay of last night, when PK-35 stole a winner at 90th minute despite being on the receiving end for most of the game.

Worth a teaser.

Canbet offered 10.50 which is madness, and probably long gone.

EDIT: PK-35 - Atlantis 1-5. Yes. 1 - 5.


Reports and comments in finnish here

29.7.2009

Rating the picks

I have recently introduced myself a quality control system of rating my own picks, on a scale of 1-10 where 10 probably needs very little explanation, and 1 either.

Not all good bets are winners though, neither all bad ones losers, but the reasoning could be shady, perhaps there are wrong data or wrong conclusions behind the pick.

This week so far Atlantis + 0.5 earns 8, TPS -0.5 was a bad pick and earns only 4, the RoPS for Sunday was an outstanding bet with the performance and market movements, but as it was a loser after all the maximum of it is 8.


I will adjust the system so that to be on the winning side average rate have to be over 7.

If it goes down to 4-5 for a period of time.. well, it just might be time to call it a day.

In the long term the only trustable rating is the yield, but in times of bad run it might be a comfort to see if you unlucky or just plain useless.

28.7.2009

Midweek Pick – Atlantis, to be bent or not to be?

Like Saturday’s pick, this is not the most obvious of choices. The club is bottom of the table, they have been in turmoil for years for different reasons. Almost nobody likes them that much, and even their home support is non-existent if we leave out the few soccer-moms and the friends of the players.

This season has been even more .. well… interesting. Early in the summer the coach was allowed to leave, the new coach introduced a bus load of new players from Lithuania – his own native country – and another load of Atlantis players decided to abandon the club in which they saw no future not for themselves, given that they had not been paid for quite some time. The FA allowed them to break their contracts and look for new teams.

As a result of all of this Atlantis was withdrawn from most bookies offerings. There were some brave individuals still selling and buying it at Betfair, but the general opinion of the club was… careful, cautious. Many people in the business talked about worst case scenarios, remembering the case of a certain Chinese businessman getting involved in a Finnish football club called Allianssi a couple of years back. That was a sad story about corruption and fixing games professionally, a lesson to be learned.

A couple of months have passed by. The Lithuanians have not gained many new friends in the country. The team has been seen by some as a joke, a disgrace, something that should not exist. The results are poor, the performances in the beginning were awful. Nothing was well or peaceful in the Atlantis camp.

I must admit, I have been suspicious about all of this. Being a football romantic myself I do want to believe in honest games and see the players do their best. All of the players, including goalkeepers. All the staff, coaches, agents, directors. There are bent people in the business, but let us suppose this is not the case and see if there is anything to be found bettingwise of this derby between Atlantis and PK-35.

The bookies offered last week prices of more than 5 for Atlantis home win, and seems like they have learned nothing from that game as there is still 5.00 at Stan James for Atlantis. I know, they know their business and some of them are very well aware of the improvement at Atlantis, but they can not offer too big odds for PK-35 either for risk management reasons.

In the last weeks´s game KPV were slightly better in the first half undeservedly winning it 0-2, but after a 20 minutes long strategy session at the half-time break the team that came out of the Atlantis dressing-room was performing the best football seen at this level in this country this season. They scored early, they hit the post, one of their goals was disallowed, they were not awarded the penalty they fully deserved. They ran over KPV, they should have won comfortably, and KPV is a quality team.

An outstanding performance, which is rewarded with being chosen the Puntteri Midweek Pick. I am sure they must be proud!

Atlantis is over 5.00 at several bookies which is way too much, my estimation for this match is roughly 34-32-34. Value, but again not a sure winner. No handicaps this time. When the SJ price drops, you will find a bit lower prices at a bookie near you.

Funnily enough, there is a replay next Sunday, as this game has been rescheduled from 10.7.
I know I am bit thick but these odds for Atlantis are pure madness.






Atlantis results so far, which do not support my pick, only my eyes and experience of the game do.

25-07-2009 13:00 Atlantis-KPV 1-2
19-07-2009 15:45 KPV-Atlantis 2-0
15-07-2009 15:30 Viikingit-Atlantis 1-0
10-07-2009 15:30 Atlantis-PK-35 postponed
17-06-2009 15:30 Atlantis-Klubi 04 1-5
14-06-2009 15:30 Atlantis-H-Linna 1-2
07-06-2009 15:30 Oulu-Atlantis 3-0
31-05-2009 15:30 Kiisto-Atlantis 1-1
26-05-2009 15:30 Atlantis-KooTeePee 1-1
21-05-2009 15:30 TP-47-Atlantis 0-1
17-05-2009 15:30 Atlantis-JIPPO 0-2
10-05-2009 15:30 KEPS-Atlantis 2-1
03-05-2009 15:30 Atlantis-PoPa 0-1
24-04-2009 15:30 Viikingit-Atlantis
17-04-2009 15:30 Klubi 04-Atlantis 4-1

25.7.2009

The Shirt



Bjørn Heidenstrøm. Yes. A crazy man, a "mental patient". Or is he really?

One of the least known Norwegian football professionals. From Oslo to Cape Town by bike in 10 months time. At the moment he is in St. Petersburg, Russia with Zenit to get some shirts for his collection, in order to build world´s biggest football symbol. More about it on his blog in norwegian. Or the vision in english.

It is all about unity, togetherness, friendship, football family. And help.

For him on his long journey.

For Africa.

For refugees.

If you see this man on his bike, stop him.

A short video at the end of Russian Channel-5 sports news here.


Another greeting from Estonian TV.

Buy him a cold beer. You will get a plenty in return. Stories. A smile. Maybe he can play football with you or with your kids.

Offer him a place on the sofa to sleep for the night. I can guarantee, he sleeps like a baby.

Give him publicity, media coverage. Invite him to TV. Listen to his stories and write about him.

His super flexible route map below. Copied from Swedish newspaper Ekspressen.


Looking at picture again, I have to admit that his beauty comes from the inside. From the warmth of his heart.


The timetable?

God only knows as there is a plenty of time. Today 6th July he is St. Petersburg Russia. Tomorrow he is heading to Tallinn, Estonia. I keep you posted, or simply follow his journey at Theshirt.no

If you need help in contacting him, contact me. Or just spread the word.

Update 26th July: At the moment he is in Hamburg!

Thank You all!

23.7.2009

Europa League for Finnish Teams

Unfortunately I have very little to say. The only match i saw was Honka - Bangor, and Honka is a way better team, but they do not need to win to qualify.

HJK is a big favourite, probably not worth the tiny odds, and Lahti - Gorica is another clash of which I have no more insight than you do.

Betting these is a waste of time and money, have to see what happens in the live betting front. No early bets from me. Except this one havint thought long about this and getting some consultation from a fellow punter;





HJK-Vetra (1-0)

Bangor- Honka (0-2)

Lahti - Gorica (0-1)


are played tonight.

22.7.2009

RoPS - FC Lahti - the pick of the weekend

Jekyll and Hyde team RoPS host FC Lahti this weekend

Latest 6 games from the right:
RoPS: 0-0-3-0-3-3 —- Lahti: 0-0-3-1-1-1

Head to Head: 3-8-9

This season: 29.04.2009 Lahti – RoPS 4-1

The head to head stats do not support my idea of picking RoPS to be the pick of the weekend. Neither does their last result, as they lost 4-0 at MYPA. They also lost the first round game against Lahti, 4-1 away. Yet, I am pretty confident, and here is why.

RoPS do have the same problem year after year. They are always late when building the team and the early pre-season games are usually plain horrible as a lot of new players – most of them from Africa – are trying to get to used to the coldness and darkness that only Finnish Lapland can offer. The methods are different. Their fellow players are new. The pitch is either artificial or in appalling condition. The other teams seem to run over you, having started the pre-season 2-3 months earlier. The match-fitness is low and the run of losses does not really build up the self-confidence.

Then comes summer. There are already some games under your belt, some wins perhaps and the team has been built. It is complete. It has been born. The individual skill of the players is starting to show, the team is a unit. Even the local community is behind you again, supporting you. The northerners are used to their Africans by now. Things are picking up.

The trip to Rovaniemi is a long one. Some teams fly. Some do not. The home crowds are not big, but fierce. The team performs better at their home ground, which this season has been a temporary one at Susivouti and is in even worse condition than their usual ground. An unforgettable experience for the poor away team.

RoPS’s 6 home games so far have produced 2 losses, 1 draw and 3 wins, and there are a lot of speculations to be done about the losses if you so wish. Against Inter RoPS missed not one but two penalty kicks. Against Honka RoPS was in the lead until the 89th minute. The draw against Mariehamn is another excellent result.

RoPS vs. FF Jaro 5:3
RoPS vs. JJK 2:1
RoPS vs. FC Honka 1:2
RoPS vs. HJK 1:0
RoPS vs. IFK Mariehamn 0:0
RoPS vs. FC Inter 0:2

I see RoPS as one of the absolute best home teams in the Veikkausliiga.

The away team FC Lahti is another matter. They have travelled so far for seven away games and they won, well, they have not yet won a single game. The stats show 0 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from their travels.

What is important here is that Lahti is still in the Europe League after winning Slovenian Gorica by 2-1 aggregate. It is a historical success for FC Lahti and their happy and proud players, apart for the legendary Jari Litmanen. Next week they travel to Belgium to meet Club Brugge.

Guess where the concentration is? Are they happy to take the Lapland trip now? Risk themselves getting injured and missing the highlight of the season?

The focus is on next Thursday. RoPS is just an obstacle, a distraction.

RoPS are not going to lose. If you want to take it safe, RoPS with a 0 handicap gives you 2.19 at Sbobet. It means that if the match is drawn the stake is returned. European bookies offer around 3 for a straight RoPS which is also a value bet.

My limit for RoPS dnb (draw-no-bet) is way under 2.00, and I can not see that this price lasting long.

Edit: The price has come down to 1.92 which was expected.

KuPS - IFK Mariehamn

KuPS – MIFK

KuPS: 0-0-0-3-0-1
MIFK:1-3-1-1-1-1

H2H: 4-2-3

29.04.2009 MIFK – KuPS 3-0

KuPS, who find themselves at the relegation zone at the moment face probably the most difficult club possible, when IFK Mariehamn travel to Kuopio in effort to strech their run of play without losing to 12. However out of the 8 away games MIFK have drawn amazing 6 times, and lost and won once. The only loss of the season so far was in early May against HJK.

Check out what Nordic Football News have to say!

KuPS have improved a lot lately and goal-keeper Ville Iiskola is confident before the game,” IFK is a very physical and strong team, but in this form we are now we are ready to challenge any team in the League. What happened in Mariehamn is just the past, now is now.”

IFK Mariehamn coach Steve Ward agrees, ” I am sure it will as tough at Kuopio just like it was against Honka and Inter. We have also played well lately, but we should get rid of the draws and get some away wins if we want to seriously fight of the top spots.

The game will be played on artificial pitch at Magnum Arena, but IFK defender Patrik Rikama is not worried,” we have practiced the whole week on artificial pitch at Mariehamn ahead of this game, and I think it will be to our advantage in the end because we are the better team to control the ball.”

KuPS have no new injury worries, the only absentee for IFK Mariehamn is striker Sasha Anttilainen 7/1.

KuPS: 1 Ville Iiskola 13/0 – 8 Tero Taipale 15/0 – 9 Balazs Balogh 11/1- 3 Janne Reinikainen 14/0 - 4 Patrik Turunen 11/0 – 15 Ollo 11/0 – 11 Pele Koljonen 12/2 – 10 Ilja Venäläinen 13/3 - 13 Betim Aliju 9/0 - 27 Segun Ikudehinbu 3/0 - 7 Miikka Turunen 13/2

Bench: 17 Jussi Kolari 0/0, 23 Jussi-Pekka Savolainen 12/0, 20 Miikka Ilo 14/0, 12 Joonas Pöntinen (gk) 2/0, 24 Atte Hoivala 5/0, 6 Tuomas Kuparinen 11/0, 22 Jyrki Juvonen 1/0

Out: 5 Jani Hartikainen 10/0 for the rest of the season, 20, 21 Jesse Miettinen 0/0, 26 Dickson Nwakaeme 1/1, 2 Joni Nissinen 1/0

Coach: Esa Pekonen


MIFK : 29 Gustav Långbacka 15/0 - 24 Mate Dujilo 11/1- 6 Marcus Olofsson 14/1 – 22 Alexandros Pappas 14/0 – 23 Paulus Arajuuri 13/1 – 8 Kenneth Gustavsson 13/0 - 9 Ante Simunac 13/2 – 10 Tamás Gruborovics 15/5 – 11 Mika Niskala 15/1 –14 Arsim Gashi 14/1 - 26 Wilhelm Ingves 13/2

Bench: 15 Amos Ekhalie 7/0, 4 Johan Carlsson 12/0, 1 Willis Ochieng (gk) 1/0, 2 Dmytro Voloshyn 7/0, 18 Dmytro Pronevych 2/0

Unavailable: 30 Sasha Anttilainen 7/1

Coach : Pekka Lyyski

Prediction: There is no question which team is the better one, and the IFK defence is very solid. The lack of wins still is a bit unconvincing factor, and it is down to the lack of proper strikers and the current odds for away win are not to my liking. One of these IFK will also lose a game, they deserved to do that against Honka, maybe they will lose at Kuopio undeservedly? This needs more studuying and changes in odds.

Edit: No value with current odds of +0.5 @ 1.77 or -0.5 @ 2.17. I skip this one unless odds change unexpectedly.

Honka - VPS

Honka -VPS

Honka :0-3-3-1-1-1 ----------- VPS: 3-3-0-1-0-3

H2H: 6-1-1

27.04.2009 VPS – Honka 2-5

FC Honka is the only other team ín addition to FC Lahti of the Veikkausliiga teams still in Europea League after winning comfortably Welsh club Bangor City both home and away.

It does bother most teams to have a lot of games, but not Honka. Honka have some 20 players for this game, and from the starting eleven some 7-8 players will change from the game at Bangor, and the final line-up remains a mystery until kick-off, the only pretty sure cases being the key players Rami Hakanpää, Joel Perovuo and Hermanni Vuorinen.

In the opening round game at Vaasa Hermanni Vuorinen scored astonishing four goals, and the danger he possesses is well-know at VPS: ” There are other skillful goalscorers too and we can not start chasing only Vuorinen. Our own work must be set toy a higher level so that teams like Honka and would score so many goals against us. I know they just came back from Bangor, but even their bench is filled with guys from the national teams and they are all very dangerous, ” says VPS coach Janne Vuorinen.

VPS got another injury when winger Jyrki Saranpää 14/1 hurt himself at trainings, and he will be out for several weeks.

Honka: 1 Tuomas Peltonen 10/0 - 2 Sampo Koskinen 11/0 - 13 Ville Koskimaa 7/1- 5 Henri Aalto 10/0 - 6 Hermanni Vuorinen 15/10 - 28 Rasmus Schüller 8/1- 10 Jami Puustinen 14/3 - 26 Jaakko Lepola 10/3 - 17 Demba Savage 14/2 - 19 Rami Hakanpää 14/1 – 21 Joel Perovuo 15/2

Bench: 27 Konsta Rasimus 1/0, 12 Janne Henriksson (gk) 6/0, 14 Jussi Vasara 15/1, 15 Aleksandr Kokko 12/0, 20 Nicolas Otaru 12/2, 11 Hannu Haarala 6/0, 3 Roope Heilala 10/0

Out: 8 Markus Paatelainen 0/0, 7 John Weckström 6/1, 22 Tuomo Turunen 11/1 transferred to IFK Göteborg

Coach: Mika Lehkosuo



VPS: 1 Henri Sillanpää 11/0 - 8 Jani Lyyski 15/1 – 11 Toni Hahto 12/0 –– 19 Jan Berg 15/0 – 3 Lawrence Smith 11/2 – 7 Tero Koskela 13/1 – 14 Jens Nygård 15/3 - 22 Tony Björk 15/1 - 10 Antonio Inutile 14/3 – 23 Jyri Hietaharju 15/1- 20 Rikard Lindroos 10/1

Bench:9 Jussi Aalto 8/1, 25 Pekka Kainu 10/0, 12 Henrik Moisander (gk) 6/0

Unavailable: 2 Jan Ahlvik 0/0 & 24 Benjamin Slotte 0/0, 16 Jyrki Saranpää 14/1, 4 Jussi Äijälä 10/0, 6 Petteri Forsell 8/1

Coaches: Juha Reini & Petri Vuorinen

Prediction: Home win. I know what some people think here, but yet the value to be found in Honka - 0,75 & - 1 was astonishingly big. Which is an excellent thing and I took Honka - 1 @ 2.35 smilingly.

Limit for Honka - 0.75 @ 1.79 and for -1 @ 2.02. Also the -0.75 handicap would have been an excellent one, but having witnessed the pure unluck of Honka lately in goal-scoring occasions I feel comfortable taking it -1. There has been no lack of chances and VPS injuries do not help. What helps is the run of results of VPS against bottom and out-of-form teams, VPS can consider themselves lucky with the amount of points gathered so far.

JJK (13th) - TPS (2nd)

JJK : 3-0-0-0-0-3 ----------TPS: 3-3-3-1-3-1

H2H:0-1-1

Last game 27.04.2009 TPS – JJK 0-0.

On Monday night´s televised game newcomers JJK Jyväskylä host TPS Turku and there is a lot at stake for both teams at different ends of the table. JJK are trying to hold on to their hopes of staying in the topflight and TPS are reaching for Championship. JJK has been a tough team to beat at home with a strong home support, but there are problems in the team that are clearly seen from the statistics. JJK have score only 11 times so far, and only 3 players have found the target; Nam with 4 goals and Kari and Lahtinen 3 each. So there danger for TPS is easy to be found.

Last week at home JJK surprised the reigning champions Inter Turku by 1-0, and the spirits are high in the JJK camp and they are capable of beating also the other team from Turku on a good day.

TPS drew with the leaders HJK at home 1-1 in a game which was one of the most intense so far this season, and as both teams today have a full squad to choose from this is supposed to be another clash of intensivity and hunger for the three points in offer.

The teams have met twice in the history; in the first round of the League JJK stole a point with a 0-0 draw at Turku, but earlier this year in the League Cup TPS won easily 3-1 without giving their visitors any chances in the game.

JJK: 30 Mihaly Szerovay 12/0 - 3 Janne Hannula 7/0 - 5 Ik Kuyng Nam 14/4 – 7 Anssi Viren 14/0 – 9 Mika Lahtinen 14/3 – 10 Tommi Kari 14/4 – 14 Jukka Sinisalo 13/0 – 19 Christian Sund 12/0 – 13 Tuomas Latikka 13/0 - 6 Jukka-Pekka Tuomanen 9/0 – 11 Georgij Hristov 1/0

Bench: 31 Antti-Jussi Karnio (gk) 3/0, 12 Sami Myllymäki 0/0, 8 Matti Lähitie 10/0, 21 Toni Koskela 13/0, 4 Markus Paija 7/0, 18 Zakaria Abahassine 9/0, 16 Niko Markkula 6/0,

Out: 15 Antto Tapaninen 0/0, 24 Niko Kautto 0/0, 17 Hyun-Kwan Kim 4/0 left the team

Coach : Ville Priha


TPS: 12 Jukka Lehtovaara 14/0 – 2 Iiro Aalto 14/0 – 18 Chris Cleaver 11/0 - 6 Jaakko Nyberg 14/2 - 7 Sami Rähmönen 15/0 – 8 Jarno Heinikangas 15/0 – 9 Mikko Manninen 14/0 – 10 Riku Riski 15/4 – 28 Mikko Paatelainen 15/3 – 20 Babatunde Wusu 14/5 - 21 Wayne Brown 15/3

Bench: 3 Kalle Mäkinen 0/0, 11 Mika Ääritalo 5/2, 17 Roope Riski 0/0, 19 Patrik Lomski 6/0, 22 Jesse Saarinen 0/0, 29 Yll Hoxha 5/0, 23 Juho Lähde 0/0, 24 Jani Aaltonen 0/0, 25 Santeri Mäkinen 0/0, 27 Tuomas Markkula 0/0, 31 Alban Ferati 0/0, 14 Kasper Hämäläinen 14/0, 1 Jani Tuomala (gk) 1/0, 13 Samu-Petteri Mäkelä 8/0, 5 Simo Valakari 7/0

Out:

Coach: Pasi Rautiainen

Prediction: It looks like an away win to me, but JJK have fought like animals at home and I need to take a closer look of this before kick-off at 18.00 CET. Could be that I take only a livebet. Look for a stream!

Edit: I was pondering before the game between tps - 1 and o 2.5, but the sudden goal on the first minute for tps interrupted my thoughts. I ended up taking o3.5 after 4 minutes of play as the game looked lively enough anf JJK have also to try. Unfortunately they are even worse than I thought and I need TPS to score 3 more now in the remaining 50 minutes. Another bet is -0.5 at tps at 0-1, that looks a lot wiser.

Edit2: FT 1-1 after an appalling "football" match. The JJK goal was a joke, which I pretty much deserved. And so did the lazy TPS to concede. There are good days, and days like these. Feeling cheated to be honest.

TamU - MyPa

Bogey team visits Finland´s Manchester

TamU: 3-0-3-3-3-1 -----MyPa: 0-3-0-0-3-0

H2H: 6-5-8

29.04.2009 MYPA – TamU 4-1

In the first round´s game at MYPA TamU got destroyed at the second half, and is trying to show that the lessons are learned,” MYPA was far better than us, but we have improved a lot since the early season, and this game will be decided on the mental front. We are getting back those players Pirinen and Petrescu who have a strong will and capacity on turning games into our favour,” says TamU coah Ari Hjelm.

Both teams have started the season worse than expected, but have been on an upward trend lately. The return of goal-keeper Mikko Kavén to TamU goal has helped the defence significantly and TamU have not conceded a goal in the three games when he has been back, ” It has hardly anything to do with me, ” says the modest Kavén, ” but now it is the striker´s turn to show something more. We have got a lot of draws lately and it will lead us nowhere.”

MYPA won poor travellers RoPS 4-0 at home last round, and have won two games in the row. TamU has also been a surprisingly succesful club to visit during recent years, and MYPA is ready again to fight for the important three points. MYPA have no new injury worries, TamU situation is also getting slightly better round after round and mf Tomi Petrescu might be fielded after a long absence.

TamU: 1 Mikko Kavén (gk) 4/0 - 18 Rafinha 15/3 - 3 Mathias Lindström 15/1 – 7 Jussi Kujala 14/1 - 17 Vili Savolainen 12/0 – 13 Sakari Saarinen 14/0- 5 Antti Ojanperä 13/1 - 22 Henri Scheweleff 14/1 – 11 Aleksei Kangaskolkka 14/2 – 30 Jari Niemi 14/0 - 20 Juska Savolainen 13/1

Bench: 21 Jonne Hjelm 15/1, 12 Juha Soukiala (gk) 11/0, 14 Jusu Karvonen 3/0, 10 Tomi Petrescu 4/0, Juha Pirinen 4/0

Out:2 Toni Järvinen 0/0, 25 Aapo Lappalainen 2/0 rest of the season, 8 Antti Pohja 7/1, 9 Juha 23 Chris James 2/1, 16 Ilari Ruuth 4/0

Coach: Ari Hjelm



MYPA: 1 Antti Kuismala 13/0 – 4 Antti Uimaniemi 14/0 – 11 Ilari Äijälä 12/3 – 13 Toni Lindberg 11/2 – 16 Toni Huttunen 14/1 - 6 Tuomo Könönen 13/0 - 8 Ady 9/2 – 2 Miikka Multaharju 13/0 - 7 Ben Webster 13/0 – 9 Saku Puhakainen 14/0 – 19 Maxim Votinov 11/2

Bench: 5 Jarno Tuunainen 0/0, 15 Ville Oksanen 13/0, 12 Mika Johansson (gk) 1/0, 14 Tosaint Ricketts 10/5, 23 Niko Nakari 5/0, 24 Nebi Mustafi 8/1, 18 Tuomas Aho 14/0
Unavailable: 3 Sampsa Timoska 5/0 , 20 Felipe Benevedes 2/0

Coach : Janne Lindberg

Prediction: TamU should not lose, but MYPA has beeb a bogey team lately for the Tampere outfit. Home win is the natural choice here, will look at the options later.

Edit: Later is now. Sbobet offers 1.99 for TamU - 0.5 which is acceptable but nothing huge as my limit is set to 1.96. There is very little margin for estimation error, but I had to take something it would be my choice for this game. Price and limit for MYPA + 0.5 is 2.04/1.93

HJK - Haka

HJK: 3-0-3-3-3-1 ----------------- Haka: 0-3-1-3-0-0

H2H: 7-6-6

29.04.2009 Haka – HJK 1-2

This is one of – if not the only – the real classic game of Finland. Two traditional and succesful clubs who used to share the champioships between themselves in the past. HJK did play against Lithuanian club Vetra in the Europe League, and after a nice away win they were found dreaming of the next round´s game against Fulham, and lost miserably 1-3 at home against a very mediocre Lithuanian side.

This game is all about finding their mental strenght and getting back to business. By winning HJK could strech their 4 point lead against Haka and TPS in the top of the table and wipe off the bad memories of the European games. By losing everything would be all open again in the championship and the season would practically start over.

The players and coach very devastated of the loss and coach Muurinen was on an analyzing mood after the game,” We have to think hard now if there have been too many games with this particular line-up. We played badly, and there were silly mistakes in the defense. I might bring in new players against Haka,” he ponders.

Haka have faced the reality after being on top of the table for most of the season, and have lost two home games in a row without scoring. Against their arch rivals they are giving some handicap in the form of the injury of df Diego Corpache 15/1 who will be out for the rest of the season, and the suspension of df Pietari Holopainen 12/5. There is also a chance that another df Jari Nikkilä is not available or fully fit cause of the recently started army sevice.

HJK: 1 Wille Wallén 15/0 – 3 Mikko Hauhia 14/0 – 5 Jukka Sauso 14/0 - 4 Mohamed Kamara 14/2 – 6 Cheyne Fowler 6/1 – 9 Sebastian Sorsa 15/4 – 10 Juho Mäkelä 15/4 - 13 Pyry Kärkkäinen 15/2 – 14 Valeri Popovits 13/3 – 17 Dawda Bah 15/3 – 20 Jukka Raitala 15/0

Bench: 2 Tuomas Kansikas 5/0, 12 Jani Viander (gk) 0/0, 21 Petri Oravainen 11/0, 26 Johannes Westö 2/0, 27 Mikko Sumusalo 1/0, 28 Nosh A Lody 0/0, 31 Akseli Pelvas 10/3, 32 Sami Salmi 0/0, 16 Jarno Parikka 14/3, 8 Ville Taulo 5/0, 18 Juhani Ojala 2/0

Unavailable:15 Paulus Roiha 3/0, 7 Tuomas Haapala 5/0

Coach : Antti Muurinen



Haka: 1 Janne Korhonen 15/0 – 20 Sami Ristilä 11/1 - 3 Petri Viljanen 9/0 - 4 Markus Joenmäki 5/0 - 22 Jarno Mattila 15/0 - 6 Sebastian Strandvall 15/2 - 7 Mikko Innanen 15/2 – 11 Antti Hynynen 14/4 - 10 Mika Mäkitalo 14/2 - 8 Jani Kauppila 15/0 - 9 Niko Ikävalko 12/2

Bench:12 Saku Pesonen (gk) 0/0, 16 Jani Bäckman 8/1, 28 Hans Denissen 5/0, 18 Jari Nikkilä 13/0

Unavailable: 5 Kalle Parviainen 0/0, 14 Valeri Minkenen 4/0, 15 Nicolas Kivistö 6/0, 2 Diego Corpache 15/1 rest of the season, 21 Pietari Holopainen 12/5


Coach : Olli Huttunen


Prediction: I do not know anymore what to predict. This was a sure HW, until the dismal performance against Vetra and the huge disappointment afterwards. Can not say if they have gathered themselves at HJK or not.

Edit: I will stick to my early price for HJK, unless I decide to take a sure 1-2 % with risen odds for Haka. Current line +-0.5 @ 1.8/2.13 could not get any closer to my estimation of this game.

FF Jaro - Inter Turku

Jaro:3-1-1-0-0-1 Inter: 0-3-0-1-1-0

H2H: 4-7-7. 29.04.2009 Inter - Jaro 1-0

The season is hardly over half-way line, but the reigning champions Inter Turku are almost burying their hopes of domestic and international success. In the Champions League they lost twice (0-1, 1-0) to a Moldovan club Sheriff Tiraspol by a penalty goal in each game, and in the Veikkausliiga they are only on 7th place already 10 points behind leaders HJK.

And they do have some worries to add up to the misery. Important midfielder Alberto Ramirez 14/1 is suspended. Captain df Henri Lehtonen 15/0 is suspended. The best goal-scorer Timo Furuholm have pain in his knees. The key player planned for this season, argentinian Claudio Verino 13/1 has not only been a disappointment in the defense, but also seems to have lost all his confidence and stamina and is not working well together with the team. He might take a role in the attack in this game because of the lack of trust in his defensive ability and the general lack of decent strikers in the team over all. Inter have scored 15 times in their 15 games played in this season´s Veikkausliiga, which is not enough specially considering that the defense is not in top form either.

This game is the decisive game for the rest of the season. International success was just a dream, but a win here might just give a chance to at least fight for the top positions. The performances have been good, if we forget the fact they are not scoring and winning games.

Jaro on the other hand is far more happy with their season so far. They are one point behind Inter at 8th place, but nothing more was expected of them before the season. The coach Mika Laurikainen announced a couple of weeks of that he is not going to continue his career at Jaro after this season, and for some time the results and performances weakened but now the things are settling down in this small coastal town of Pietarsaari, and Jaro is likely to go on with their good season.

Vitali Teles will continue between the posts as Markus Koljander 13/0 is serving the second game of his two-game ban, but otherwise the injury situation of Jaro is improving again and they can field almost best possible starting eleven. Even Teles who was doomed as a risk and a questionmark filled his role fully against Tampere United (0-0) last monday, and kept his net intact.

Jaro: 12 Vitali Teles 2/0 – 6 Janne Vellamo 14/0 - 5 Kristian Kojola 15/2 – 2 Jani Tanska 15/1 - 10 Jonas Emet 15/3 – 16 Papa Niang 14/2 – 17 Petter Meyer 14/1 - 18 Mikko Hyyrynen 13/3 – 19 Sebastian Mannström 15/4 - 22 Jens Portin 15/0 – 23 Joonas Laurikainen 15/3

Bench: 9 Björn-Erik Sundqvist 3/0, 30 Jesse Öst 0/0, 11 Jani Koivisto 6/1, 13 Jani Sarajärvi 2/0, , 26 Tommi Haanpää 0/0

Unavailable: 8 Jari Sara 0/0, 21 Daniel Fellman 8/0, 1 Markus Koljander 13/0, 7 Marco Matrone 14/1, 3 Heikki Aho 8/0,

Coach: Mika Laurikainen



Inter Turku: 1 Patrick Bantamoi (gk)13/0 – 3 Claudio Verino 13/1 – 22 Sami Sanevuori 9/0 – 7 Ari Nyman 15/0 – 9 Guillano Grot 11/3 – 11 Timo Furuholm 13/5 – 14 Joni Aho 12/0 – 18 Ats Purje 11/1 – 24 Joni Kauko 11/1 – 23 Ville Nikkari 8/0- 17 Mika Ojala 13/2

Bench: 8 Touko Tumanto 7/0, 20 Arttu Seppälä 1/0, 21 Pablo Gomez-Marttila 0/0, 27 Kennedy 13/1, 25 Ville Mäkilä 0/0, 26 Felix Åkerlund 0/0, 6 Jermu Gustafsson 1/0, 13 Eemeli Reponen (gk) 2/0 , 15 Severi Paajanen 15/0, 12 David Monsalve (gk) 1/0

Unavailable: 19 Aristides Pertot 8/0, 5 Alberto Ramirez 14/1, 29 Henri Lehtonen 15/0

Coach: Job Dragtsma

Prediction: Jaro was a value bet for the early birds and the price of Jaro has dropped steadily after the odds had been published, and I am not that sure there is value anymore. The mental state of Inter is the decisive factor here and I need to do some more sniffing before deciding to Jaro, preferrably at 0, or not. At these odds Inter is not advisable but things might change.

On a match day the odds are dropping on Inter, and I have updated two more absentees for Jaro (Matrone and Aho), both weakening their defense. Explains the drop, still I am not that interested. No bet.

Again RoPS

Have not given up the outfit from Lapland yet.

They are far better at home than away so one should not read too much into the 4-0 thrashing at MyPa last weekend.

Lahti have injury worries, narrow bench, lots of games, Europe League and 1000 km to cover.

RoPS 0 is very much worth a bet at 2.26 SBOBET

21.7.2009

CL: Sheriff Tiraspol - Inter Turku

To fix it or not to fix it?

I am getting tired of all the rumours, odds changes and bullshit.

Sheriff is the better of these teams.

Inter have no strikers available. Not even the bad inefficient ones.

A draw is enough for Sheriff since their 0-1 win at Turku.

Sheriff should be a favourite here, 55 - 60%.

If it is not, then somebody thinks somebody else knows something. Maybe someone does

I dont think, believe, nor bet. There is a chance for trading for sure, and I will skip it.

Please do not spam me anymore with the fixed tips. Rather stick them up to your arse.

Prediction: ----?!!

19.7.2009

A Kakkonen pick

HyPS - MP

MP - 0.75 @ 2.03 Sbobet


Also over 3.0 @ 1.94 is very advisable. Take a look at the latest games of HyPS, and this is no coincidece.

EDIT:FT 0-4.

The team is ****

10.07.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HyPS vs. KTP 2:5
05.07.09 Kakkonen Lohko A FC Futura vs. HyPS 5:3
17.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A PK K-Uusimaa vs. HyPS 7:1
13.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HyPS vs. Warkaus JK 2:3
06.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A LPS vs. HyPS 1:0
29.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HyPS vs. Gnistan 0:2
24.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A Kultsu FC vs. HyPS 1:3
21.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HyPS vs. FC Kiffen 0:2
17.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A FC Kuusankoski vs. HyPS 0:2
11.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. HyPS 5:0
03.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HyPS vs. GrIFK 2:3

FF Jaro - Tampere United on tv & streams

Jaro:3-3-1-1-0-0 --------- TamU: 0-3-0-3-3-3

H2H: 3-3-14. 9.7.2009 Suomen Cup TamU – Jaro 2-0.

EDIT: 0-0. A fair reflection of the performances, well the draw is. There were enoough goal chances for a win.

Last week FF Jaro visited Rovaniemi and returned home with an amazing away loss of 5-3 against RoPS and a suspension for 1st choice goalkeeper. Jaro coach Mika Laurikainen is happy about the 3 goals scored but unhappy with the red card and other minor worries, as there is no depth in the Jaro squad;” Very colourful game, where RoPS was better and deserved their win. The referee did allow the game to turn into too wild, which is very unfortunate for us as I have only 13 players fully fit at the moment and can not afford to lose any more of them.”

TamU and Jaro met only 11 days ago last time, and then TamU was far better even with a squad that was a combination of reserve players and more experienced League-players and won at home 2-0.

The injury worries of TamU are getting easier, important Juska Savolainen 12/1, Jussi Kujala 13/1 and Sakari Saarinen 13/0 are returning to the squad and for the first time for a long time there are also 1st team players on the bench. Also Aleksei Kangaskolkka is finally hitting form and have started scoring goals, which is why he was brought to TamU from MYPA after last season. There are also hopes of important and talented midfielder Tomi Petrescu 4/0 reaching match fitness after a long-term injury.


Jaro: 12 Vitali Teles 1/0 – 6 Janne Vellamo 13/0 - 5 Kristian Kojola 14/2 – 7 Marco Matrone 13/1 - 10 Jonas Emet 14/3 – 16 Papa Niang 13/2 – 17 Petter Meyer 13/1 - 18 Mikko Hyyrynen 12/3 – 19 Sebastian Mannström 14/4 - 22 Jens Portin 14/0 – 23 Joonas Laurikainen 14/3

Bench: 9 Björn-Erik Sundqvist 3/0, 30 Jesse Öst 0/0, 11 Jani Koivisto 5/1, 13 Jani Sarajärvi 1/0, 3 Heikki Aho 8/0, 2 Jani Tanska 14/1

Unavailable: 8 Jari Sara 0/0, 21 Daniel Fellman 8/0, 1 Markus Koljander 13/0 suspended

Coach: Mika Laurikainen


TamU: 1 Mikko Kavén (gk) 3/0 - 18 Rafinha 14/3 - 3 Mathias Lindström 14/1 – 7 Jussi Kujala 13/1 - 17 Vili Savolainen 11/0 – 16 Ilari Ruuth 3/0 - 5 Antti Ojanperä 12/1 - 22 Henri Scheweleff 13/1 – 11 Aleksei Kangaskolkka 13/2 – 30 Jari Niemi 13/0 - 20 Juska Savolainen 12/1
bench: 21 Jonne Hjelm 14/1, 12 Juha Soukiala (gk) 11/0, 14 Jusu Karvonen 3/0, 13 Sakari Saarinen 13/0, 10 Toni Petrescu 4/0?

out:2 Toni Järvinen 0/0, 25 Aapo Lappalainen 2/0, 8 Antti Pohja 7/1, 9 Juha Pirinen 4/0, 23 Chris James 2/1

Coach : Ari Hjelm

TamU is hitting form, and is a slight favourite here. Moneyline for TamU feels like a safe bet now that their defense is in order and there is depth again on the bench.

The odds of TamU are likely to get slashed when the betting world wakes up and notices that Jaro are missing important players including the gk and there is a big questionmark between the posts. This is not a sure away however, do not get fooled by the odds movement.

18.7.2009

MyPa – RoPS

RoPS:0-0-0-3-0-3 --------------- MyPa: 0-0-3-0-0-3


H2H: 10-6-4. League 17.08.2008 MyPa-RoPS 1-0

EDIT:FT 4-0

Home team MYPA has been unpredictable and a disappointment to themselves in the first half of the season and find themselves only slightly above the relegation zone and 5 points above RoPS from Rovaniemi. A home loss here would be a disaster and cause panic in the club, but fortunately for MYPA their guests have been awful travellers and gained only 1 point from their away games.

MYPA have won at home Tampere United and the mighty HJK, but having lost their last two home games they really can feel pressure now. ”MYPA has always been difficult for us, but now they have all the pressure and we can look forward into this game having finally found the net properly against the 5-3 win against Jaro last week, ” says coach of the Rovaniemi team Mika Lumijärvi.

”We have tried to analyze our poor success on the road but there is no one single reason to that, ” he continues. ” All we can do is try out best.”

MYPA loaned away one of their promising youngsters Felipe Benevedes 2/0 to Kakkonen team MP, otherwise the only other absent player is defender Sampsa Timoska 5/0.

RoPS will be without long-term patients Tenkula and Majava and red-carded Ville Syväjärvi 12/0, but otherwise their fitness situation is improving day by day.

MYPA: 1 Antti Kuismala 12/0 – 4 Antti Uimaniemi 13/0 – 11 Ilari Äijälä 11/3 – 18 Tuomas Aho 13/0 – 16 Toni Huttunen 13/1 - 6 Tuomo Könönen 12/0 - 8 Ady 9/2 – 2 Miikka Multaharju 12/0 - 7 Ben Webster 12/0 – 9 Saku Puhakainen 13/0 – 19 Maxim Votinov 11/2

Bench: 5 Jarno Tuunainen 0/0, 13 Toni Lindberg 10/1, 15 Ville Oksanen 12/0, 12 Mika Johansson (gk) 1/0, 14 Tosaint Ricketts 9/3, 23 Niko Nakari 5/0, 24 Nebi Mustafi 7/0
Unavailable: 3 Sampsa Timoska 5/0 , 20 Felipe Benevedes 2/0

Coach : Janne Lindberg

RoPS: 1 Jung-Huyk Kwom (gk) 13/0 – 4 Stephen Kunda 14/0 – 5 White Simwanza 12/0 – 6 Joonas Ikäläinen 14/2 - 3 Marko Koivuranta 8/0 - 11 Chileshe Chibwe 13/2 - 10 Chanda Mwaba 14/1 - 30 Echiabhi Okodugha 14/4 - 18 Christopher Musonda 14/3 - 16 Jeferson Pires 6/1 – 15 Mika- Matti Maisonvaara 12/1

Bench: 2 Godfrey Chibanga 11/0, 8 Nchimunya Mweetwa 5/0, 9 Zeddy Saileti 11/1, 13 Jukka Yrjänheikki 2/0, 20 Juha-Pekka Inkeröinen 6/0, 19 Janne Turpeenniemi 9/0, 12 Kari-Pekka Syväjärvi (gk) 2/0

Out: 7 Jarno Tenkula 0/0, 22 Juuso Majava 0/0, 17 Ville Syväjärvi 12/0 (suspended)

Coaches: Zeddy Saileti & Mika Lumijärvi

Betting: RoPS was big value with a -1 handicap, but it is also worth a shot for a straight win as anything can also be expected from the Rovaniemi outfit. Well worth and worth, it depends on the odds which i will look closer later.

Have to run now, but nothing exceptional to be found in the odds. I could get a minimum of a sure bet now with my early RoPS -1, but it is not my game.

Finland Kakkonen Kultsu - LPS at 14.00 CET

LPS - 1.5 @ 1.94 Sbobet.

Tasty.

EDIT:FT 2-3
Edit:


17.7.2009

KuPS - FC Lahti

KuPS: 0-0-0-0-3-0 -------------- Lahti:1-0-0-3-1-1

H2H:2-2-13. League 23.04.2009 Lahti – KuPS 1-0


EDIT:FT 1-1

KuPS comes into the game with rested feet while FC Lahti returns almost straight away from their european trip at Slovenia. Lahti lost 1-0 at Gorica in their 2nd ql-round of the Europe League are in the middle of lots of games and minor injuries. For Lahti KuPS is hardly the ideal away trip as it is quite a long bus ride.

KuPS played a decent game against HJK and were almost the better of the teams in the first half, then experience and skill took over and HJK cruised to an undeserved 0-3 victory. KuPS – coach Esa Pekonen stresses the importance of concentration throughout the whole game;” everyone must fill their role for the whole 90 minutes and keep moving and helping one another. We are probably not the best team in the League and can not give a handicap for the other team by not working 100 % . If our players do not move and work without the ball, we have no chance.”

Lahti have had difficult times result-wise lately, but the 1-1 draw against Honka was a glimmer of hope,especially when it was played without several 1st choices and the late equalizer by sub Jussi Länsitalo helps Lahti with their confidence.


There are several Lahti players with minor injuries and who are doubtful for this game, but the only ones missing for sure are Jukka Veltheim, who is out for the rest of the season and suspended defender Toni Huuhka 11/1. Some players might be rested ahead of the game against Gorica, thus Lahti line-up is a big mystery but it is probably not the best possible.

ND Gorica is the big event for Lahti, and the trip to Kuopio might be much more difficult than predicted as it is a let-down game between two more important games.

KuPS: 1 Ville Iiskola 12/0 – 8 Tero Taipale 14/0 – 9 Balazs Balogh 10/1- 3 Janne Reinikainen 13/0 - 4 Patrik Turunen 10/0 – 15 Ollo 10/0 – 11 Pele Koljonen 11/1 – 10 Ilja Venäläinen 12/3 - 13 Betim Aliju 9/0 - 27 Segun Ikudehinbu 2/0 - 7 Miikka Turunen 12/2

Bench: 17 Jussi Kolari 0/0, 23 Jussi-Pekka Savolainen 11/0, 20 Miikka Ilo 13/0, 12 Joonas Pöntinen (gk) 2/0, 24 Atte Hoivala 5/0, 6 Tuomas Kuparinen 10/0

Out: 5 Jani Hartikainen 10/0 for the rest of the season, 20, 21 Jesse Miettinen 0/0, 26 Dickson Nwakaeme 1/1, 2 Joni Nissinen 1/0

Coach : Esa Pekonen


FC Lahti: 1 Viktor Szentpeteri 9/0 –15 Jukka Vanninen 12/0 – 3 Henri Toivomäki 14/0 - 4 Janne Moilanen 5/0 – 6 Kalle Eerola 11/0 - 8 Mohamed Fofana 13/3 - 20 Jonne Kemppinen 12/2 – 11 Drilon Shala 14/5 – 14 Konsta Hietanen 14/0 – 19 Riku Heini 9/0 - 17 Eero Korte 14/2

Bench: 10 Jari Litmanen 9/0, 21 Kaarlo Rantanen 4/0, 22 Juha Tuomi (gk) 5/0, 13 Jussi Länsitalo 6/2, 16 Jussi Heikkinen 2/0, 9 Rafael 12/2

Unavailable: 7 Jukka Veltheim 2/0 for the rest of the season, 2 Heikki Haara 13/1, 12 Toni Huuhka 11/1

Coach : Ilkka Mäkelä

The best prices of KuPS success have already been eaten up. More thorough betting analysis later.

The prices have pretty much settled now, no news and no new bets to my early KuPS + 0,5 @ 2.00

TPS - HJK

TPS: 3-3-3-3-1-3 ----------- HJK: 3-3-0-3-3-3

H2H:2-6-11. League 23.04.2009 HJK-TPS 2-2

EDIT:FT 1-1


Hot top-clash and a Veikkausliiga classic game awaits at TPS Veritas-stadion when the hosts meet the current leaders HJK who have a collected so far four points more than TPS. An extremely important match which TPS can not afford to lose if they want to keep their championship hopes in their own hands. TPS have been unbeaten in 8 of their last Veikkausliiga matches and have hit the form, but the same can be said also about HJK, who can add to that list an away win in Lithuania in an Europe League ql-game against Vetra.

TPS have full squad and they are confident ahead of the game, says Marko Rajamäki from TPS; ”We need full support from our supporters as HJK is the best team ever in Finland. We can not rely that they are more concentrated in european games as they have a big squad full of players hungry for success.”

TPS have no injury worries, the only distraction in the team being the rumours of the possible transfers of some of the U21-players out of TPS.

In the light of the history HJK has been on top, but TPS in this form is a big danger to anyone and a serious title-contender, especially if they do not lose on Sunday.

HJK away 0-1 win at Vetra on Thursday was greeted with big applauds, especially after the opponents for the next round were drawn at UEFA and the next possible match in the Europe League would be against ex-national coach Roy Hodgson´s Fulham. There is a chance that the thoughts and dreams of HJK are already in the european glory, but HJK coach will do his utmost to prevent that and try to keep the other teams in a distance also in the local league.

HJK are missing Paulus Roiha 3/0 and Tuomas Haapala 5/0, but as the replacements have been outstanding it has been no reason to worry for HJK.


TPS: 12 Jukka Lehtovaara 13/0 – 2 Iiro Aalto 13/0 – 18 Chris Cleaver 1/0 - 6 Jaakko Nyberg 13/2 - 7 Sami Rähmönen 14/0 – 8 Jarno Heinikangas 14/0 – 9 Mikko Manninen 13/0 – 10 Riku Riski 14/4 – 28 Mikko Paatelainen 14/3 – 20 Babatunde Wusu 13/5 - 21 Wayne Brown 14/3

Bench: 3 Kalle Mäkinen 0/0, 11 Mika Ääritalo 4/1, 17 Roope Riski 0/0, 19 Patrik Lomski 6/0, 22 Jesse Saarinen 0/0, 29 Yll Hoxha 4/0, 23 Juho Lähde 0/0, 24 Jani Aaltonen 0/0, 25 Santeri Mäkinen 0/0, 27 Tuomas Markkula 0/0, 31 Alban Ferati 0/0, 14 Kasper Hämäläinen 13/0, 1 Jani Tuomala (gk) 1/0, 13 Samu-Petteri Mäkelä 8/0, 5 Simo Valakari 7/0

Coach : Pasi Rautiainen - a HJK legend!



HJK: 1 Wille Wallén 14/0 – 3 Mikko Hauhia 13/0 – 5 Jukka Sauso 13/0 - 4 Mohamed Kamara 13/2 – 6 Cheyne Fowler 5/1 – 9 Sebastian Sorsa 14/4 – 10 Juho Mäkelä 14/4 - 13 Pyry Kärkkäinen 14/2 – 14 Valeri Popovits 12/3 – 17 Dawda Bah 14/3 – 20 Jukka Raitala 14/0

Bench: 2 Tuomas Kansikas 4/0, 12 Jani Viander (gk) 0/0, 21 Petri Oravainen 11/0, 26 Johannes Westö 2/0, 27 Mikko Sumusalo 1/0, 28 Nosh A Lody 0/0, 31 Akseli Pelvas 9/3, 32 Sami Salmi 0/0, 16 Jarno Parikka 14/3,, 8 Ville Taulo 4/0, 18 Juhani Ojala 2/0

Unavailable:15 Paulus Roiha 3/0, 7 Tuomas Haapala 5/0

Coach : Antti Muurinen

Bettingwise an interesting clash. Personally I believe that TPS is not a top team yet, but the HJK distraction of the european hopes must be taken into account. And HJK might be happy enough with a draw here to keep TPS 4 points away.

More analysis tomorrow.

Edit: This is tomorrow now, but it stays for me a no bet.

19.7 FC Honka - IFK Mariehamn

Honka – MIFK

Honka :3-0-3-3-1-1
MIFK:3-1-3-1-1-1

H2H: 6-3-2. League 23.04.2009 MIFK – Honka 2-2

Honka played against Bangor City in the Europe League ql-game, and took an easy 2-0 victory at home after missing some 20 good goal chances. ”It was a good game for us, but we really had deserved a few more goals. It was a good warm-up before the game ahead of IFK Mariehamn, which plays similar very organized 4-4-2 football with Bangor, only on a far better level, ” says Honka coach Mika Lehkosuo.

”IFK is very good in the air and also dangerous with set pieces with players like Tamas Gruburovics. Also their striker Arsim Gashi was an interesting and skillful player, ” continues Lehkosuo.

Honka have a run of 6 undefeated games in all competitions, but yet Lehkosuo is not completely satisfied, ” there are too many draws and also the level of or performance is not that steady and solid. There are too many funny mistakes and inconsistency.

The only players injured from Honka are long-term patients Paatelainen 0/0 and Weckström 6/1, Haarala 6/0 is doubtful. Also Tuomo Turunen is about to close a deal with IFK Göteborg is unlikely to feature in this game if the deal is on.

IFK Mariehamn
have amazingly only lost once in the league, away at HJK, and have conceded only 7 goals in the 14 matches played which is an excellent record and tells a lot about their defense. Their goal-keeper Långback is doubful however, and also important defender Paulus Arajuuri has been negociating with Djurgården about a future trasfer. The only player missing for sure is striker Sasha Anttilainen 7/1.


Honka: 1 Tuomas Peltonen 9/0 - 2 Sampo Koskinen 10/0 - 3 Roope Heilala 10/0 - 5 Henri Aalto 9/0 - 6 Hermanni Vuorinen 14/9 - 28 Rasmus Schüller 8/1- 10 Jami Puustinen 13/3 - 26 Jaakko Lepola 9/3 - 17 Demba Savage 13/2 - 19 Rami Hakanpää 13/1 – 21 Joel Perovuo 14/2

Bench: 13 Ville Koskimaa 6/1, 27 Konsta Rasimus 1/0, 12 Janne Henriksson (gk) 6/0, 14 Jussi Vasara 14/1, 15 Aleksandr Kokko 11/0, 22 Tuomo Turunen 11/1, 20 Nicolas Otaru 11/2, 11 Hannu Haarala 6/0

Out: 8 Markus Paatelainen 0/0, 7 John Weckström 6/1

Coach: Mika Lehkosuo




MIFK : 29 Gustav Långbacka 14/0 - 24 Mate Dujilo 11/1- 6 Marcus Olofsson 13/1 – 22 Alexandros Pappas 13/0 – 23 Paulus Arajuuri 12/1 – 8 Kenneth Gustavsson 12/0 - 9 Ante Simunac 12/2 – 10 Tamás Gruborovics 14/5 – 11 Mika Niskala 14/1 –14 Arsim Gashi 13/1 - 26 Wilhelm Ingves 12/1

Bench: 15 Amos Ekhalie 6/0, 4 Johan Carlsson 11/0, 1 Willis Ochieng (gk) 1/0,

Unavailable: 2 Voloshyn 6/0 ?, 18 Dmytro Pronevych 2/0 ? , 5 Peter Blomberg 0/0 (retired), 30 Sasha Anttilainen 7/1

Coach : Pekka Lyyski

The odds on Honka are not really that tempting if we think about the MIFK results and defense, but the truth is that IFK is not that good. Will talk about this later.

Honka odds are rising, and the closer -0.5 gets to 2.00 the better!

FT:1-1. An excellent game by finnish standards.

Honka was on the top, but IFK Mariehamn is a good team who is not going to lose that easily.

Haka - VPS

Haka: 3-0-3-1-3-0 --- VPS:3-3-3-0-1-0

Haka - VPS 13-4-3. League 22.04 2009 VPS-Haka 0-1

Both teams are heading for this clash after losing their last game at home. In the 1st round Haka took an away 0-1 win from VPS after having received an early red card in a very uneventful game, all in all Haka and VPS have played a lot of their games with not that many goals.

”Since they changed their manager VPS have played excellent football”, says Haka coach Olli Huttunen, ” they have several players who are capable of winning the game by themselves, and we have to be very careful with players like Pekka Kainu and Jussi Aalto.”

The Haka performance against TPS (0-3) was a disappointment. ” There has to be, and will be changes made. What they are you will see on Saturday.”

Haka has no major injury worries.

VPS coach Petri Vuorinen does not want to emphasize the problems of Haka seen on the TV-game against TPS. ” Every game is different and we can not expect them to play that badly against us. I do not think they will be that defensive-minded either, even that their best weapon is their capability of fast counter attacks. We have conceded a lot of goals like that lately and have to be more careful with Haka.”

”Haka have had the same coach for years and is well-known for their organized defense, so this is a test for our strikers how they are going to handle that pressure, ” continues Vuorinen.

VPS are missing defender Jussi Äijälä 10/0 and mf Petteri Forsell 8/1 due suspensions, but the team is healthy and in good condition.

Haka: 1 Janne Korhonen 14/0 – 2 Diego Corpache 14/1 – 21 Pietari Holopainen 11/5- 4 Markus Joenmäki 5/0 - 22 Jarno Mattila 14/0 - 6 Sebastian Strandvall 14/2 - 7 Mikko Innanen 14/2 – 11 Antti Hynynen 13/4 - 10 Mika Mäkitalo 13/2 - 8 Jani Kauppila 14/0 - 9 Niko Ikävalko 12/2

Bench:12 Saku Pesonen (gk) 0/0, 16 Jani Bäckman 8/1, 20 Sami Ristilä 10/1, 3 Petri Viljanen 8/0, 28 Hans Denissen 4/0, 18 Jari Nikkilä 12/0

Unavailable: 5 Kalle Parviainen 0/0, 14 Valeri Minkenen 4/0, 15 Nicolas Kivistö 6/0

Coach : Olli Huttunen


VPS: 1 Henri Sillanpää 10/0 - 8 Jani Lyyski 14/1 – 11 Toni Hahto 11/0 – 16 Jyrki Saranpää 14/1 – 19 Jan Berg 14/0 – 3 Lawrence Smith 10/1 – 7 Tero Koskela 12/1 – 14 Jens Nygård 14/3 - 22 Tony Björk 14/1 - 10 Antonio Inutile 13/3 – 23 Jyri Hietaharju 14/1

Bench:9 Jussi Aalto 7/1, 20 Rikard Lindroos 9/1, 25 Pekka Kainu 9/0, 12 Henrik Moisander (gk) 6/0

Unavailable: 2 Jan Ahlvik 0/0 & 24 Benjamin Slotte 0/0 injured, 4 Jussi Äijälä 10/0 & 6 Petteri Forsell 8/1 suspended

Coaches: Juha Reini & Petri Vuorinen


Despite the efforts made by the coaches this sounds and smells like a boring encounter and both teams are far from sympathetic. Bettingwise the first options in mind are 0-0, under 2.5 and both not to score, but I will take a look at the odds tomorrow.

And the look has been taken. They are clever people at Sbobet. The prices for this game are absolutely correct - well, in line with my estimations at the moment and there is no reason to bet. The limit for Haka straight win - 0.5 is at 1.79 and that is exactly what they offer now. It is closer to value than VPS + 0.5 @ 2.14, so there is always the chance of an odds movement, sometimes they start for silly reasons and there is nothing to do to stop it.



The match will be streamed from the Haka website for a price of 5 e, but be warned, these are the two dullest teams of the Veikkausliiga!

Probably there is also a stream available for free if you look hard enough.

18.7. JJK - FC Inter

JJK : 0-3-0-0-0-0 ----------- Inter:0-0-3-0-1-1

Only one game in the h2h-history, league cup at Jyväskylä this spring 1-2 for Inter.

JJK got another hurtful defeat by one goal in their last home game against MYPA. This time the defense worked well, but JJK could not create any real goal chances. The JJK coach Ville Priha acknowledges the problem painfully well, ” The opening passes from the defense line were good, but the midfield lacks creativity and we got no balls into the goal-scoring sector” , he admits.

”The movement of out players without the ball was poor, which made it impossible for the midfielders to pass the ball into open space,” continues Priha.

”Against Inter Turku we need to some passes behind their defense – line, and get out strikers into full force. There is no chance for us if we let them start with their own short-passing style of play.”

JJK has no injuries, but instead they have signed a new player who should force significantly their side; macedonian national team player Georgij Hristov with 46 caps and 16 goals is according to Priha the best player ever in Jyväskylä.

Inter Turku played their historical first ever Champions League qualification game last Wednesday, only to suffer a 0-1 home loss against Moldovian team Sheriff Tiraspol.

” I am hardly happy with our latest results, but over all out performances have been very good. The only thing missing is goals, I admit it is a big thing though. The most important one. ” says Inter coach Job Dragtsma.

”JJK has been up to their expectactions and this is not going to be easy, but I trust we can get the three points and continue our challenge in the local League.”

Inter will be without mf Aristides Pertot 8/0, JJK has full squad available.


JJK: 30 Mihaly Szerovay 11/0 - 3 Janne Hannula 6/0 - 5 Ik Kuyng Nam 13/4 – 7 Anssi Viren 13/0 – 9 Mika Lahtinen 13/2 – 10 Tommi Kari 13/4 – 14 Jukka Sinisalo 12/0 – 19 Christian Sund 11/0 – 13 Tuomas Latikka 12/0 - - 6 Jukka-Pekka Tuomanen 9/0, Georgij Hristov 0/0

Bench: 31 Antti-Jussi Karnio (gk) 3/0, 12 Sami Myllymäki 0/0, 8 Matti Lähitie 10/0, 21 Toni Koskela 12/0, 4 Markus Paija 6/0, 18 Zakaria Abahassine 9/0

Out: 16 Niko Markkula 5/0, 15 Antto Tapaninen 0/0, 24 Niko Kautto 0/0, 17 Hyun-Kwan Kim 4/0 left the team

Coach : Ville Priha


Inter Turku: 1 Patrick Bantamoi (gk)12/0 – 3 Claudio Verino 13/1 – 5 Alberto Ramirez 13/1 – 7 Ari Nyman 14/0 – 9 Guillano Grot 10/3 – 11 Timo Furuholm 12/5 – 14 Joni Aho 12/0 – 18 Ats Purje 10/1 – 24 Joni Kauko 10/1 – 29 Henri Lehtonen 14/0 - 17 Mika Ojala 12/2

Bench: 8 Touko Tumanto 7/0, 20 Arttu Seppälä 1/0, 21 Pablo Gomez-Marttila 0/0, 22 Sami Sanevuori 9/0, 23 Ville Nikkari 7/0, 27 Kennedy 12/1, 25 Ville Mäkilä 0/0, 26 Felix Åkerlund 0/0, 6 Jermu Gustafsson 0/0, 13 Eemeli Reponen (gk) 2/0 , 15 Severi Paajanen 14/0, 12 David Monsalve (gk) 1/0

Unavailable: 19 Aristides Pertot 8/0

Coach: Job Dragtsma

Predict: I see this as a clear away win. The only questionmark really is the CL-game the following week, but I believe coach Dragtsma can make his team to concentrate in game at the time. The class of Inter is superior to JJK.

Unfortunately the odds for Inter have now dropped to a level where it represents no value anymore, but as there is a new "shock signing" for JJK the prices may very well change. If they rise back to 1.82 - limit for Inter - 0.5 - or more it is value again. Taking JJK + 0.5 with current 2.17 is not a good solution either for the very same reason. No value.

I am not updating this match anymore, but take a look yourself if the prices fluctuate a lot and do not get worried, but take action.

15.7.2009

Europe League; FC Honka - Bangor City from Wales

No analysis after all.

Amateur league welshmen are coming over trying not to lose, and the far better home team is aiming to score enough goals to kill this tie already in the first leg.

If Honka succeeds in keeping the ball in the ground, they will cruise to an easy victory and score 3-6 goals.

If not, they can blame themselves for kicking themselves in the arse.

No bets, everyone seems to know the name of game.

Edit: FT 2-0 (1-0)

It could have been a bigger win, but it is not. Can not really blame the Honka attitude, it just was not to be.

Readers in Latvia & Lithuania, Germany, Poland, Czech..

please contact me or Bjorn for some nice experiences with the man with the vision!



Check the link :www.theshirt2010.net




Latest from Finland;

Wednesday Finland; Finland - Estonia U19 & Viikingit -Atlantis at Ykkönen

Finland U19 - Estonia U19

Had no odds yet available, and will also run out of time for analysis as the kick-off is at 13.30 CET.

Traditionally Finland is a way better in the U internationals.

Finland today;

1. Aku Teppo Kelo, HJK
2. Valtteri Moren, HJK
16. Mikael Liespuu, TPS
4. Matias Koskimäki, HJK
3. Juuso Salonen
6. Juho Lähde, TPS
17. Tuomas Tyystälä, PS Kemi
11. Juuso Simpanen, FC Honka
10. Johannes Westö, HJK
8. Tuomas Rannankari, KuPS --Twente
13. Roope Riski, TPS

Edit: Estonia + 1.75 @ 2.2 at Sbobet must be too much, Finland is missing seven players from the ideal line-up. Unfortunately I do not know the Estonian team and I need to go and take a look live.

Interesting prospect in any case, looking forward to see the first 15 minutes.


Viikingit - Atlantis, Ykkönen

Kick-off at 17.30 CET. A derby, local Helsinki team meets Atlantis FC who are almost a 100 % lithuanian team now. Odds are absolutely favouring Viikingit too much with -1.25 handicap, but on the other hand there is very little info available of the Atlantis team unless you have seem them play.

A couple of the new lithuanians are injured and because the transfer window in Finland is not yet open but opens up in August, any new enforcements must be taken from their own Academy.

I have, and today i will watch both games. Viikingit is nothing special really, and this game smells like a big surprise! Unfortunately in games like these there is also always a chance for dodgy and foul play, but it is worth a flat stake shot. Anything bigger would be gambling though.

But to start with, take Atlantis @ about 2 with a +1.25 handicap. If you have got weak nerves, it might not be a good idea to take it.

13.7.2009

KäPa - GrIFK analysis

An interesting game really.

A derby.

Both teams were relegated from Ykkönen last season, quite deservedly.
Both teams were promoted to Ykkönen the season before.



This season both teams are likely to stay in Kakkonen,

KäPa is 11th in the group 11 3-4-4 13 points only one point above the relegation zone, and GrIFK 11 4-5-2 with 17 points already 10 point behind leaders WJK. Only the winner will get promoted.



Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa latest

07.07.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KTP vs. KäPa 3:3
17.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. Gnistan 0:4
13.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. FC Kuusankoski 0:0
07.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A Warkaus JK vs. KäPa 1:1
01.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. FC Kiffen 5:1
26.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A PK K-Uusimaa vs. KäPa 1:0
21.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A LPS vs. KäPa 2:1
17.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. MP 0:2
11.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. HyPS 5:0
04.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HIFK vs. KäPa 0:4
25.04.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KäPa vs. Kultsu FC 1:1

GrIFK latest

04.07.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HIFK vs. GrIFK 1:1
17.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A LPS vs. GrIFK 3:3
14.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A GrIFK vs. PK K-Uusimaa 2:0
06.06.09 Kakkonen Lohko A FC Kiffen vs. GrIFK 2:2
02.06.09 Suomen Cup Pöxyt vs. GrIFK 4:0
31.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A FC Futura vs. GrIFK 2:3
24.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A GrIFK vs. MP 0:2
21.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A KTP vs. GrIFK 1:1
17.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A GrIFK vs. Kultsu FC 4:1
10.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A GrIFK vs. Gnistan 0:0
03.05.09 Kakkonen Lohko A HyPS vs. GrIFK 2:3
26.04.09 Kakkonen Lohko A Warkaus JK vs. GrIFK 1:0


LOHKO A standings

Warkaus JK 12 8 3 1 26-13 27
Gnistan 12 7 3 2 23-11 24
PK Keski-Uusimaa 12 6 2 4 28-18 20
LPS 12 6 2 4 19-16 20
FC Kuusankoski 12 5 4 3 18-19 19
MP 12 5 3 4 22-16 18
GrIFK 11 4 5 2 19-15 17
FC Futura 12 5 2 5 23-24 17
FC Kiffen 11 4 3 4 13-14 15
KTP 12 3 5 4 15-17 14
KäPa 11 3 4 4 20-15 13
HIFK 11 3 3 5 14-17 12
HyPS 12 3 0 9 16-34 9
Kultsu FC 12 0 1 11 8-35 1

Prediction:

GrIFK is stronger of the teams, but as an amateur league anything can happen also tonight. I willing to argue slightly with the market and see GrIFK as a favourite, but not that strongly to justify an early bet as I also have the opportunity the go to the stadium of watch and bet live.

Home advantage is otherwise no issue at this level and in Helsinki area derbies, but KäPa stadium is one of the windiest places on earth and usually leads to some strange football if and when teams can not hold the ball on the ground.

No early pick and no update, but if the odds change I suggest to go to the opposite direction and take the underdog with the handicap. The current prices are right enough with the information available at the moment.

Edit after all: 1 hour before kickoff käpa is now 2.6 and grifk 2.3. Curious to see the match and i am off now!

How was the ranking before the season?

Veikkausliiga rankings at the local media & me



There is also my floating pre-season ranking below. Now that half the season is over things have naturally changed.

This has been quite a useful tool really, helps understanding the class better.