The champions all home goals 2012 - HJK

Meistriliiga 2012 all stars

A note to self really. Easy to see the progress of Nomme Kalju; they will take part in Komia 2013 and have several other friendlies in Finland as usual during the winter. Teles was the gk at Jaro 2011.

How did local sports media fare with 2012 rankings?

Depending on what you want to look they did either well or poorly. Everyone knew the winner - HJK - no one guessed the relegated club right and the midtable estimations were a mess.

Rank	Kymppipaikka	Veikkaaja	Urheilulehti	Final table	Points
1	HJK	HJK	HJK	HJK	64
2	TPS	Inter	Inter	Inter	58
3	JJK	TPS	Honka	TPS	54
4	Honka	Honka	JJK	MIFK	51
5	Inter	JJK	TPS	Lahti	50
6	KuPS	KuPS	KuPS	MyPa	49
7	VPS	VPS	VPS	Honka	43
8	MIFK	Jaro	Jaro	VPS	43
9	Haka	MIFK	Haka	JJK	40
10	Jaro	Haka	MIFK	KuPS	36
11	MyPa	Lahti	Lahti	Jaro	33
12	Lahti	MyPa	MyPa	Haka	32

My own publicly published ranking was this : very obscure on purpose and I was expecting an even season, MIFK was the dark horse but I was as adamant as everyone else that MyPa would go down.

MIFK btw might get an added reward for their good season as they won the local Fair Play - competition as usually Finland have won the extra European ql spot. MIFK to Europe 2013? It will be decided in the spring.,

2012 1x2 distribution

Well, as the saying goes the years and seasons are not brothers! These seem to vary strongly from season to season and it was only a couple of seasons ago when "home" won "away" not until the very last round of Veikkausliiga. This season´s home win percentage is record high 52% and the question is if the home advantage has increased or is it variance? If there is a reason for the increase I would like to know why. 2011 the distribution was 47-27-26 so what we missed a lot were the equalizing goals from the away teams.

This raises the eternal question about the validity of any sample and the discussion will go on. Are any of the data  from season 2010 useful anymore? Is there a trend? Are there 60 % home wins next season?


There were significantly less goals this season at Veikkausliiga compared to 599 goals on previous season. I for once would had wanted to see some of the narrow TPS 1-0 wins to end up in a draw instead.

Most goals were seen at Kakkonen South, but partly there is LoPa to blame who earned only one point throughout the season. Needless to say that the 2-2 draw away at BK-46 was a costly one, nearly as bad as the cup game on neutral ground vs JäPS who won the Eastern group in the end. At that time bookies got a narrow escape as they offered a -0.5 line for JäPS.  (JäPS won after extra time, a fair line would had been around -2). LoPa´s games produced 179 goals with the avg of 6.63 per game.

The % for draws at Kakkonen varies a lot from season and group, but you do not have to be a rocket scientist to see that the high-looking odds of 4.5  for a draw often offer no value. At match totals the line of 2.5 is rarely offered and you can see why.

2012	Matches	1	x	2	Goals	Avg	U 2.5	O 2.5
Veikkausliiga	198	52	20,7	27,3	535	2,70	51	49
Ykkönen	135	45,9	22,2	31,9	365	2,70	50	50
2 South	135	52,6	14,1	33,3	522	3,87	31	69
2 East	135	45,9	20	34,1	448	3,32	31	69
2 West	135	42,2	17,8	40	469	3,47	36	64
2 North	108	42,6	20,4	37	362	3,35	33	67

Joel Pohjanpalo goals 2012

Kakkonen 6.10.

TP-47 - KPV 65 17 18
o/u 2.5: 75 25

PK-37 - HauPa 62 17 21
o/u 2.5: 76 24

FC YPA - FC Santa Claus 73 14 13
o/u 2.5: 76 24

PS Kemi - AC Kajaani 70 15 15
o/u 2.5: 80 20

TP-47 - KPV is a match I will skip, too many unknown names starting for the home team and there aren't a lot of odds available either. YPA's match doesn't have any odds at all, so no reason to preview that. HauPa is fighting for their lives, but PK-37 is probably the last team that would just roll over due to their workman-like mentality and bald-headed player coach Lähderinne. However, the over should be a good option with ~1,40 available at some places. AC Kajaani has had a lot of problems with really bad teams lately, and now they're understandably resting some players. As we've learned from the other two slave galleys of Rovaniemi and OPS, the local players are laughably bad so I'll happily take the 1,60-level odds that are available for the home team, who despite resting some of their players should have enough to see off this weakened away team.

From Ykkönen AC Oulu over and OPS -0,25 look really appealing.

Kakkonen 30.9.

For today I'd continue opposing KPV and betting on FC YPA. PK-37's form looks ugly but they haven't played that badly and most importantly their opponents have been really high-quality, and so I don't agree at all with setting KPV as favorites, the team which has shown basically nothing good in the second half of the season. HauPa - FC YPA is obviously a hugely important match, but I think HauPa might be a bit overrated after their wins against Santa Claus, who was playing with their second-rate squad and AC Kajaani, whose form has heavily dipped after their promotion spot became practically sure. Overs look quite appealing for both games, with KPV - PK-37 being a bit more interesting due to the no stakes nature of the clash.

Kakkonen 22.9.

FC YPA looks really appealing at ~1,85 odds. They're at full strength, need points badly and most of all KPV has still been really poor even if they managed to take a couple of wins from the hopeless teams (HauPa and bankrupt FC Santa Claus).

Jari Litmanen highlights from the "Respect" - game vs The world 2012

A real feelgood clip. Enjoy!

Kakkonen 9.9.

TP-47 - FC YPA +0,5 2 52% 2,03 2/10 188bet
TP-47 - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,81 2/10 188bet
AC Kajaani - GBK O3.25 64% 1,61 5/10 188bet
AC Kajaani - GBK -0,75 1 61% 1,77 5/10 Sbobet

TP-47 - FC YPA 48 20 32
o/u 2.5: 72 28

FC YPA's decision to fire their coach was certainly strange considering that their last three (or four) games were against the very best teams of the league, and in none of those matches were they particularly outplayed. Now they'll be led by their former longtime coach, who wasn't that popular during his last two years. Bookies have given TP-47 slightly more chanches than me, which I naturally disagree with. Now that YPA has almost a full squad to choose from their line-up doesn't really pale in comparison to TP-47 and the form is just about equal too. YPA does have those three losses in their last few games, but they played pretty well in every one of those. TP-47 was quite poor in the second half against Santa Claus and they were really lethargic against GBK while winning HauPa should be always be just a routine performance for a team of their level. FC YPA probably still misses their new signing Savic and longterm injured Alasuutari, TP-47 has made a lot of changes to their team with players going in and out, but their core of Finnish players, who have done all the heavy lifting in terms of goals, has stayed intact.

AC Kajaani - GBK 65 16 19
o/u 2.5: 77 23

Motivation shouldn't be an issue because the hosts would confirm their promotion spot with a win and the away team would very much like to keep alive their slim hopes of reaching that spot. Despite their good record, you can see from the odds that nobody really seems to think that GBK is equal to PS Kemi. They do have some good players such as Melarti, Corcoran, Smith and Roiko but I guess the overall potential is just lower than what for example PS Kemi (who have many more players with Ykkönen experience/talent) has. AC Kajaani doesn't seem to be as dominant as the results tell if the match reports are anything to go by, but it probably doesn't matter whether they play with barca tactics or just throw long balls to their strikers because their foreign players seem to possess too much talent for this level anyway. GBK likely has only longterm injured T. Wentin and Halonen out, AC Kajaani's Traore made his return while Önal missed the PS Kemi game.

Kakkonen 8.9.

PS Kemi - PK-37 O3.25 59% 1,86 6/10 Sbobet

PS Kemi - PK-37 55 19 26
o/u 2.5: 73 27

Didn't really expect to see odds, but despite PS Kemi's seemingly long list of injuries they still have most of their key players available so a good home team and a class difference equals no bet on the 1x2. PK-37 usually have had a reputation of being a defensive side, but after midsummer they've been just like any other team in terms of goals so in a stakeless no-motivation clash against a really high-scoring team I'm confident enough to try the over.

Kakkonen 4.9.

AC Kajaani - PS Kemi O3.5 57,5% 1,92 7/10 Sbobet

AC Kajaani - PS Kemi 53 19 28
o/u 2.5: 77 23

The bonus round. AC Kajaani easily handled PK-37 in the last top clash, but this should be a much more even affair as the only time AC Kajaani has been completely outplayed this season was against PS Kemi (though ACK had some injury worries in that game). The odds look quite correct on the 1x2, the home team has been more consistent and their home record is almost perfect, while PS Kemi's poor start to the season and equally hideous away displays tell that they're not promotion material so it's easy to give AC Kajaani over 50% to win. Both teams possess excellent offensive players, and the stats also agree that this will have a lot of potential to be a high-scoring game, not to mention that the first meeting had seven goals in it even with the home team strikers missing sitters (just like they did against HauPa).

Kakkonen 1.9.

FC YPA - AC Kajaani 21 17 62
o/u 2.5: 77 23

GBK - KPV 55 19 26
o/u 2.5: 74 26

Bet365 seems to have this game open and live (with minimal limits) so a short preview. GBK still misses their long-term injured players so no surprises there, KPV doesn't have the services of their key defender N. Kalliokoski. GBK is in much better form even if some of their wins haven't been that convincing, KPV is still playing really badly as they haven't won anyone significant in ages so I'm fairly confident that -0,25 will be a half-loss at worst. Thursday's overs didn't have any luck despite plenty of chances in both games, but I'd pick over in this game too because KPV's already fragile defense is obviously weakened by the loss of Kalliokoski and GBK doesn't belong among the most boring sides this year.

edit: okay, GBK just scored when I posted this, but I'd probably bet the over and -0,25 still. 

Kakkonen 30.8.

HauPa - PS Kemi -1,25 2 64% 1,79 9/10 Sbobet
HauPa - PS Kemi O3.25 64% 1,90 9/10 Sbobet
FC Santa Claus - TP-47 -0,25 2 59% 2,05 8/10 Sbobet
FC Santa Claus - TP-47 O3.0 59% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet

FC Santa Claus - TP-47 27 20 53
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Have to say I'm a bit puzzled with these odds, PS Kemi visited Rovaniemi just a while ago and their odds barely scratched 1,70 and TP-47, who are not that far behind PS Kemi are priced at 2,00. Both teams have had long pauses lately so the forms are a question mark, but as said before TP-47's real quality is somewhere behind GBK, PK-37 and PS Kemi, and on the other side Santa Claus would likely be deservedly knee deep in the relegation battle if it were not for the Warkaus JK's antics. But as of now, there's still the tiny chance that HauPa will somehow manage to string up a couple of wins so there should be no question about motivation on either side. With totals I'd lean more towards under, as Santa have been quite defense-oriented during the past few months and TP-47 is certainly not among the highest scoring teams this year.

HauPa - PS Kemi 10 13 77
o/u 2.5: 77 23

This is mainly a bet against HauPa, who have been completely outmatched in their last few games. Against PK-37 they still had some life left, but after that it hasn't looked pretty for them as TP-47 and a heavily undermanned GBK side easily dominated them. And last week it was KPV's, whose last win against anyone worth of note was from June 20, turn to beat them. PS Kemi's away woes have been well-documented and their promotion dream is more like a pipe dream, though they do have two h2h matches against AC Kajaani left. However, the fact is that after midsummer they've played as good as anyone apart from AC Kajaani, with their PK-37 loss being the only game where they played poorly. The over should be an equally good opportunity as PS Kemi's foreigners are still in scorching hot form and if there's one thing HauPa has been able to do better this year it's goalscoring (defending has of course been a completely different story).

AC Oulu - OPS 29.8.

A few words about today's match before bidding farewell to Kakkonen's lined games tomorrow. The return of Nurmos is important for AC Oulu's defense, because in spite of his young age he has been almost as important as Hietanen in the defense line. Ojala importance is a so-so, as T. Siira has for the most of time been an adequate replacement for him. OPS' new players have obviously created a huge buzz, but according to the KooTeePee reports and what I saw against JIPPO they are not any better than the previous guys who were kicked out in the middle of the season. However, the most important thing is that they seem to be a step ahead of the likes of Huovinen, Juntunen and the juniors, who honestly have no skills to play in Ykkönen level so the overall effect for the team is positive (and for Finnish football, it's obviously the opposite). 

AC Oulu has a really bad loss against HIFK from last week, but they've been a completely different team in away games so I wouldn't put too much weight on it when looking at this game. Even their two away wins (JIPPO, KooTeePee) have been quite lucky, but when playing at home they've even dominated RoPS for a one half in that 0-0 game, and have, for the most part, deserved their unbeaten (outside the cabinet) home record. OPS' new dawn is still a bit up in the air; KooTeePee win wasn't that convincing and JIPPO looked really uninterested and perhaps not motivated against them. AC Oulu is obviously the better team, but betting on them at -0,5 line is not interesting at all even when keeping in mind that OPS has no local supporters other than the player families; in fact OPS-jp would be a more appealing selection with these odds if forced to pick anything in the 1x2/handicap markets.

The odds for over have dropped considerably today, and if OPS continues to play in the same way as they did against JIPPO, where they fielded a 3 man defense, the over would definitely look good. And even if they wouldn't, they'll probably not adapt bus tactics which in AC Oulu's case usually means goals (just check the results outside JIPPO, FC Hämeenlinna, HIFK). However, despite the midsummer slump of OPS dragging their averages down, OPS isn't that explosive offensively even on a good day. Seeing that the over-hyped Leandro Costa is Jaksic-level at best, the goods and the goals will again have to come from the individual talents of Ngambe x2, Ramirez and set-pieces, so all in all with the 1,81 offered for the over 2.5 I'd prefer waiting for a few minutes for the odds to rise.

Record long highlights - and for a reason! TPS vs Haka FT 9-2.

FIN U18 vs Switzerland early Sept 2012

Looks like the FA read closely the fan forums

Ville Viljala, JJK 
Frédéric Gotte, AS Monaco
Rasmus Kautto, HJK 
Hampus Holmgren, VIFK 
Joel Mero, FC Lahti 
Ville-Valtteri Starck, TPS 
Saku Kvist, FC KooTeePee 
Lucas Gabrielsson, TPS
Glen Kamara, Arsenal FC
Simon Skrabb, FF Jaro
Teppo Syrjänen, TPV
Toni Viljanen, FC Inter
Jerry Voutilainen, KuPS
Riku Sjöroos, TPS
Matej Hradecky, TPS
Joonas Jokinen, Wycombe Wanderers
Mikko Viitikko, HJK
Youness Rahimi, FC Honka

VPS vs Haka FT 2-1 highlights

Classic owl visit at Finland vs Belgium

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 18.8.

HauPa - GBK 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 72 28

GBK is suffering from a severe player shortage, because in addition to their long-term injured players (T. Wentin, Halonen, Smith) they have three more players suspended (Jylhä, Svenlin, Roiko), who all were more or less regular starters.  And if that wasn't enough, they have had huge problems with HauPa everytime they've played against them, in fact it isn't that much of a stretch to say that HauPa has been the better team or at least equal in every modern era encounter these two have had. However, even with all the sidelined players and not so good history I think having HauPa as a favorite would be just too much. The loss of Räisänen to FC Dreeverit in the off-season has obviously been an issue since HauPa's defense is just a shadow of what it was last year. Considering that they let in almost double the amount of goals last season when Räisänen wasn't playing, that probably doesn't come as that big of a surprise when keeping in mind that they didn't bring any noteworthy replacements in. In the last few weeks HauPa has been somewhat competitive, and they look to have no significant injuries apart from Paldan, who has somehow scored three goals, and Reinikainen (questionable), who has been a regular starter in the center of the defense. GBK does have that infamous Warkaus JK loss in their recent games, but overall I can't say that they've played any worse than HauPa during the past few weeks. For all their fighting spirit, HauPa just doesn't possess enough quality for this level, so even at home it would be really difficult to find value with the current odds.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 17.8

KPV - AC Kajaani O3.5 56% 1,89 4/10 Sbobet
KPV - AC Kajaani -0,75 2 63% 1,73 8/10 188bet
FC YPA - PK-37 O3.0 62% 1,89 7/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - PK-37 +0.0 2 54% 2,08 5/10 188bet

KPV - AC Kajaani 17 16 67
o/u 2.5: 76 24

Time for an exaggerated kneejerk reaction again, KPV has been actually as bad as OPS-jp during the past few months if we disregard that Warkaus JK win, where the visitors played almost half of the game with a 9-man squad. In other words, their ranking needed to be downsized a lot. AC Kajaani could be a little rusty, as their last "competitive" game was nearly three weeks ago. Like you can see from the table, they've mastered the rather important art of winning so without actually seeing the games there's not much you can say about them. Other than those few games against PK-37 and PS Kemi, they've ran almost unopposed for most of the season. Of course, away games can be tricky, like we could see from PS Kemi's bumbling yesterday and AC Kajaani is no exception to that as almost all of their dropped points have been in away games, but overall there's a big difference in quality and most likely in form too so let's hope that ACK will not pull a Kemi today.


FC YPA - PK-37 36 21 43
o/u 2.5: 70 30

If I wasn't fully sold on YPA's upward form before, I can't really argue against it after they completely manhandled GBK last week. They're now practically playing with a full squad, so for once the excuses have been likely valid. Against most teams it would probably be a good idea to ride the YPA train, but PK-37 deserves to be given credit for their good season. They're one of the few teams, or probably the second team along with ACK, who are able to pull consistent performances round after round, so despite their non-star-studded squad it's not really a fluke that they're second in the league. PK-37 missed their playmaker Sirviö (né Rönkkö) last week, but he should be back now.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 16.8.

FC Santa Claus - PS Kemi -0,75 2 62% 1,81 7/10 188bet
FC Santa Claus - PS Kemi O3.5 53,5% 1,94 2/10 188bet

FC Santa Claus - PS Kemi 17 17 66
o/u 2.5: 74 26

As sad as it is to see a team not be able to field 11 players, Warkaus JK's withdrawal could be a blessing in disguise because it means that AC Kajaani's lead is much slimmer now. PS Kemi is obviously one of the leading candidates to dethrone AC Kajaani. Aside from their weak performance against PK-37, they've definitely started to resemble a promotion chasing team in the last weeks. Reports tell that Santa's draw last week against PK-37 was extremely undeserved and overall they haven't shown anything worthwhile lately besides that 0-2 loss to YPA. However, Santa Claus isn't Korsholm, so the 1,50 type of odds for the away win are not really inviting. The same goes for the over 3.5, since the PK-37 report tells that Santa Claus are playing with total bus tactics now, which does make sense as they have let in more than a one goal just a couple of times in the last month or so. On the other hand PS Kemi's attack is easily the second best this year; their foreign players especially have been in red hot form lately, so I can't say that under would appeal either. Injury situation is not known at the moment, but PS Kemi should be free of injuries assuming no one has gotten hurt this week. edit: -0,75 is naturally not what I expected, so you can discard everything that's written above.

FIN Veikkausliiga Sep 26th 2012

No updates anymore today, fingers crossed now for Inter goal!

JJK keeper Korhonen so far being close to destroy my day.

80 m MyPa 1-0. Well-deserved.

VPS better now and sounds like a late goal for someone here.

Inter again looking for a late winner.

Lahti top scorer Nguekam 2nd yellow.

Games sound settled now, Jaro had a great chance.

Stadion contact expects 4-0 for HJK.

2-2 MIFK. Sub scored. Well done!

TPS 1-0 Agyeman. Totally different half now. Lively.

Haka fight for their lives but must get tired under constant pressure.

59 min  MIFK sub df out - striker in. Lahti keep on doing well.

56 min at TPS vs VPS. Game has turned out to be lively. Still 0-0 though.

Lahti praised at MIFK and sound confident and aggressive.

51 min at JJK - game, Inter much closer to win so far.

MyPa Sihvola another great chance. They should win. Sub df out, striker in.

Honka best chance so far, still 1-0.

HJK 3-0 Pelvas.

news - RoPS top striker Kokko out rest of the season.

Jaro bring in quality kid Skrabb.

2nd half start soon. MyPa stream for example here.

Time for half-time sausages and beer.

Jaro in full control.

HJK been dominant, should be up more than 2-0.

No chances at TPS - VPS. TPS unable to create the game as expected.

MyPa close to score but it remains 0-0. Haka sub out attacking mf and bring in df mf C. Matrone.

MIFK vs Lahti 1-2. Nguekam 38.

HJK sub OUT injured cb Lahti - IN Moren.

MIFK vs Lahti still running coast to coast.

Haka red card. Df Sanevuori 2nd yellow.

Jaro 1-0 at 44, Niang.

HJK control 100-0. Waiting for more HJK goals.

Not much happening at TPS vs VPS. Host only slighly better.

MyPa (Sihvola) very close of scoring into an empty net. MyPa control and Haka are under pressure.

It is a rainy and stormy night at someplaces and cool in every venue if not cold.

At JJK game Inter´s Sirbiladze had already 3 great chances but missed.

HJK 2-0, Pelvas. Sounds like HJK are having fun with KuPS today who think about next game already.

26 min, TPS slightly better but very slow game.

MyPa in control vs Haka.

Inter taking command now. Have taken them to win at 2

1-1 at MIFK at 21, Nguekam pass to Hauhia a great ball. Souds fast and overish.

Jaro been dominating strongly lately.

HJK 1-0 16th min Savage. Easy goal and a deserved one.

Lahti are in the game at MIFK and it is open an even.

JJK vs Inter is coast-to-coast game and goals should start pouring in.

At JJK top scorer Gruburovics plays as cb, both have had chances already.

At Jaro a slow start with slight home dominance. Only half chances so far.

One good chance for HJK so far.

Slow start at TPS vs VPS. 1 shot in 10 minutes.

MyPa start with 5 defenders and sound nervous.

1-0 was a great effort bt Kangaskolkka (MIFK). MIFK also hit the post once.

At JJK game one half a chance already for both.

Jaro 4th df is new guy Irwin.

MIFK to score first. 1st minute 1-0.

RoPS CEO interviewed, new players promised for 2013.


Kick-off getting nearer.









Lineups:

HJK regular, Väyrynen and Mattila not starting and Väyrynen was missed vs Inter, upfront Pohjanpalo and Pelvas but look good as always;

KuPS stronger than expected and they have also signed a new american kid Johann Smith from some unknown place with unknown methods as the transfer window should be closed. They say he is a striker.

******

Jaro without 3 defenders Sara, Vaganov and Vasiljev as known earlier

Honka rotate heavily. Gk Viitala likely to concede at least one easy goal and only the cb captain Heikkilä looks like a player likely to start also on Saturday in the cup final. A few recovering players, some regular subs and 5 players from the reserves. Jaro definitely deserve being favourites, how big exactly is hard to tell under these a bit special circumstances.

TPS about the same than last time away at Honka

VPS benched gk Henriksson and let inexperienced Kevari to start. Dont know him too well, have my doubts though. Df Uimaniemi returns, winger Strandvall also on bench.

***

MyPa only slight surprise is cb Aho not starting, Haka are at their strongest.

***
MIFK without df Trafford and have young Nordström instead. A bit of weakening there. 1st choice keeper still out but it is no problem.

Lahti preview seemed to be wrong with the suspensions as only Rafael is missing. (Lepola too but not missed)

********

JJK miss two centerbacks due suspension and one by injury so there are changes. JJK´s mystery preview tried to make a good thing as Inter have previosly pressed the centerbacks hard but now they do not know what to expect. I am not sure who the other cb there is alongside Pasoja but this is unlikely any stronger JJK defense than they have had before. It could be mf Tuomanen, or someone else.

Inter no surprises and they came out early with the lineup as they often do as they have nothing to hide.

Inter to win.!

HJK vs KuPS not out yet.

FIN U19 away in Sweden

Starting lineup:

Daniel Kollár, FC Honka

Lassi Nurmos, AC Oulu
Ville Rannikko, TPS
Dani Hatakka, FC Honka
Felipe Aspegren, HJK

Emerik Grönroos, HJK
Jesper Brechtel, Karlsruher SC
Matti Klinga, FC Lahti
Patrick Aaltonen, FC Honka
Jaakko Hietikko, FC Honka

Kasperi Liikonen, FC Espoo

Subs
Carljohan Eriksson, HJK
Kaarlo Kervinen, HJK
Tuure Siira, AC Oulu
Topi Järvinen, JJK
Matias Louanto, FC Inter
Riku Heinonen, JäPS
Matti Saari, HIFK

FIN U21 vs Lithuania Aug 15th at Turku

Saku-Pekka Sahlgren
Walter Viitala, FC Honka

Tapio Heikkilä, FC Honka
Valtteri Moren, HJK
Samu Nieminen, JJK
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Henri Toivomäki, Almere City
Atte Hoivala, KuPS

Joni Kauko, FC Inter
Rasmus Schüller, HJK
Juho Lähde, TPS
Robin Lod, HJK

Lauri Dalla Valle, Fulham FC
Tim Väyrynen, FC Honka
Joel Pohjanpalo, HJK
Kalle Kauppi, FC Inter
Nikolai Alho, HJK
Aleksi Paananen, KuPS

Kakkonen 11.8.

PK-37 - FC Santa Claus 68 16 16
o/u 2.5: 72 28

PK-37 great run this year is certainly something that should be applauded, and it shows that you can actually have some success with a team composed of local players as long as you have patience and some luck too. However, I can't help but to think that the quality of Northern group has taken a step backward this year; PS Kemi and KPV suffering from a relegation hangover, Santa Claus teetering on the brink of financial collapse, Warkaus and YPA having severe player shortage at times, TP-47 having a terrible first 1/3 of the season and HauPa being just plain bad. Nevertheless, 1.35-1.45 level odds are fully deserved, since Santa Claus is simply not in PK-37's level at any department. Perusing RoPS' preview I can see that it's unlikely that Santa will get anyone from there, otherwise it's a total guesswork who's out. PK-37 looks to be in full strength apart from their madman goalkeeper Kosonen, who's still serving his suspension.


AC Kajaani - Warkaus JK 89 7 4
o/u 2.5: 85 15

Really weird odds for AC Kajaani. Warkaus JK pulled off an improbably feat last week they won GBK after being one goal down and playing with 10 men, but drawing from the sparse information available it was just a case of mental breakdown on GBK's part. Other than that their standard of play has been, to put it kindly, really inadequate in post-Markkanen games. Of the many things that AC Kajaani have excelled in during this season has been their ruthlessness against the poorer sides; in fact they haven't lost a single point against them the whole year. If I'm interpreting FF2 correctly AC will miss their captain Heikkinen. He has scored an impressive amount of goals, but I assume that's just the Sohlo effect where anyone could score a lot of goals when playing alongside better players, because he didn't show any quality couple of years ago. Warkaus managed to get three substitutes in the bench for the last match so their situation is "improving", but based on what the team has said on the local newspapers they wouldn't be bothered with the possible relegation, so unlike with TP-47 and FC YPA, no help will be coming from the outside.

PS Kemi - KPV 62 18 20
o/u 2.5: 73 27

KPV hasn't been at their best lately, but giving PS Kemi almost the same kind of odds that they had against Warkaus is just insulting to KPV. PS Kemi at home is surely not something that should be disrespected, but KPV has already beaten them twice deservedly this year and the class difference should in no way warrant an estimation of 70 % for the home team. The red card of KPV's Kalliokoski is obviously a big blow, so the over could serve as a good cover for the handicap since KPV hasn't really looked like an under-team recently even when he has been playing. In addition to Kalliokoski, former Veikkausliiga player Koskela has left but he only played a few games for them anyway. PS Kemi should have no injury worries.

GBK - FC YPA 58 18 24
o/u 2.5: 74 26

YPA continued their upward form against Santa Claus, but according to the reports it was a pretty even game. Apart from one long-term injured player, they finally have a full squad to choose from. That's, of course, makes the job of predicting even harder than usual. In theory, with players like Pejic, Pakola, Heikkilä, Akmetkhanov and Vuletic they shouldn't have any worry about relegation, but last year and the start of this have been really disappointing even when playing at full strength. Because most of the players are not even that old, the reason for their downfall could be the substandard coaching of the former manager Myllykangas and this year's inexperienced Kostinschuk, or as it's often the case, the whole organisation has become stagnant according to the forum talk. Even with numerous wins against the best sides of the group lately, GBK hasn't really been at the top of their game in the past weeks. However, against the YPA-like sides they've been pretty good, so I can't really get excited about the lousy odds for the away win. GBK's player situation seems to be more or less the same as last week.

Kakkonen 9.8.

TP-47 - HauPa -0,75 1 60,5% 1,81 6/10 188bet
TP-47 - HauPa U3.25 56% 1,90 3/10 188bet

TP-47 - HauPa 65 19 16
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Okay, so as you can see from the odds this is not a relegation battle in a classical sense, because TP-47's performances and likely the squad too is top-4 material at the moment, and HauPa's position is mostly right considering their capabilities. HauPa looks like they miss a couple of players (at least Hanhela and Halmet), but they're not exactly key players. TP-47 had a long list of injuries in their preview, but as usual they were not correct at all because Kovalev, Konde and Gullsten are playing. The suspensions of Ahonpää and Väänänen especially are tough losses, but they still easily have enough quality left. I have to admit that I haven't had a clue about totals lately (or it's just bad luck), but this game should definitely have potential to be quite low scoring. Apart from that last week's strange match against KPV, TP-47 haven't gone over 3 goals since the coaching change and principally they've been a really boring team during the past couple of years. HauPa's away record is of course bothersome and their defense is not like last year, but lately they've shown much better defending ability. PK-37 match did have four goal in it, but based on what I saw that was simply PK-37 being extremely efficient in converting their few chances. HauPa's attacking play on the other hand was as bad as I remembered, with their good chances limited to the goal and one shot that hit the crossbar.

Kakkonen 5.8.

Warkaus JK - GBK 24 19 57
o/u 2.5: 73 27

For the last couple of months Warkaus has just been annihilated by every team worth anything, so hopefully ze asians won't follow Veikkaus odds too closely because anything over 2,00 would be very tasty for the away team. Warkaus seems to have still trouble scraping up a full line-up, which is quite sad even for this level so who knows who they will field this time. GBK probably still misses their long term injured players Smith, Wentin and Halonen.

KPV - TP-47 39 24 37
o/u 2.5: 55 45

KPV has had some bad luck lately, but even so they're not playing at the same level of effectiveness as they did during the first part of the season. TP-47 is almost the complete opposite; they've played really good after the coaching change and going by the reports their real quality is firmly among the AC Kajaani -chasing trio of PS Kemi, GBK and PK-37. KPV's key player and their captain Kalliokoski was injured in PK-37 game. Additionally they will probably miss at least some of the younger players due to army, but that should not affect them too much. TP-47's regular starters Kovalev and Herala are likely to be out.

Kakkonen 4.8.

HauPa - PK-37 U3.0 59% 1,90 6/10 188bet

FC Santa Claus - FC YPA 43 20 37
o/u 2.5: 74 26

According to their own preview, Santa should've been injury-free but their line-ups have been wildly varied lately. In the GBK match they had to field multiple local "talents", and you have to only think about RoPS' lineups of the years past to know that it is a very very bad thing. FC YPA's Pejic wasn't in the squad last week, so the previews really can't be trusted, but other than that they seem to have all their injured players back, though some of them started from the bench. Like bookmakers, I can't really tell which one of these teams sucks more than the other at the moment, so 1x2 is probably a no bet. Santa Claus has been really lucky to pick even a single point in their latest three matches, but they have certainly proved able to hold their own against the poorer teams, plus their home record is quite impressive, at least on the paper. YPA looks to be in upward form, but the KPV win wasn't really deserved so I'll hold my judgment for a moment, but the potential should be there to at least leapfrog HauPa and Warkaus JK, and maybe Santa Claus too.

AC Kajaani - PS Kemi 55 19 26
o/u 2.5: 76 24

The class difference is likely minimal in optimal conditions, but I can't disregard the mostly hideous away performances of PS Kemi and the equally impressive home performances of AC Kajaani. No team news, but there shouldn't be any major injury worries in either side. As usual, goals should be a given when AC Kajaani plays, and if PS Kemi ever wants to justify their big promotion talk they won't come only to defend in Kajaani, because after all there's still the 13 points gap separating these teams so draw wouldn't really do any good.

HauPa - PK-37 25 23 52
o/u 2.5: 54 46

Hard to see many goals being scored in this. HauPa has seemingly clamped down their defense considerably in the last two games and PK-37 strength has usually been their defending (or it sure as heck is not their no-name striking squad). PK-37 has continued to play at a high level - the two losses being mostly down to bad luck - so I can't really agree with Veikkaus' estimations. Yes, HauPa has picked up some points in their latest games, but those have been against some of the worst sides of the league, and PK-37 has been miles ahead of Warkaus and YPA. For what I can gather, both teams should be able relatively injury-free.

Highlights Inter Turku vs MIFK FT 0-3!

"highlights" of AC Oulu vs FC Hämeenlinna FT 0-0

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.7

FC YPA - HauPa O3.0 64,5% 1,84 8/10 Sbobet

FC YPA - HauPa 49 20 31
o/u 2.5: 72 28

HauPa missed quite many dudes in Warkaus game, but when the whole team is made up of fringe quality players I don't know whether that makes any difference one way or the other. YPA is finally starting to get their key players back, and if I'm reading the preview correctly only the long-term injured Alasuutari and Pejic are sure to be out from this game. However, as the odds seem to be perfectly set at the moment I'm not going to bother with 1x2 because predicting YPA's quality at the moment is complete guesswork. On paper they're obviously better, but it's bit of a stretch to raise them a lot considering how unimpressive they've mostly been this year and the last even when at full strength.

OPS vs Viikingit FT 1-2 highlights

Kakkonen 2012 July overview to follow

Soon.

 The quickest way to receive any updates is naturally by ordering the Free Edition of the Newsletter by using the quick sign-up form on the right. Not all information provided in the Free Edition is published also here.

Twente vs Inter Turku FT 1-1

Netanya Maccabi vs KuPS FT 1-2

LINK

MyPa vs Honka FT 0-0

OPS vs SJK FT 1-1 highlights

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 22.7

Warkaus JK - HauPa +1 2 64,5% 1,90 6/10 Sbobet
Warkaus JK - HauPa O3.0 62% 1,88 7/10 Sbobet

Warkaus JK - HauPa 49 20 31
o/u 2.5: 70 30

Huge relegation battle. Long away trips don't usually sound appealing, but I think Warkaus JK's odds are a bit too low. Both teams have been equally awful lately and now that Markkanen is gone Warkaus doesn't look as intimidating as before. They probably possess an edge in quality, but +1 or so would be more than welcome as there's very few match-ups this year that would be deserve such a high handicap. Warkaus hasn't been as high-scoring as I thought, but they're certainly not one of the lowest scoring teams either. HauPa has been slightly more predictable; at home it's boring and low-scoring but in away games it's again the complete opposite. In fact, the only away game that went under was the last meeting between these teams.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 21.7

TP-47 - PS Kemi +0,5 1 58% 1,97 6/10 Sbobet
AC Kajaani - FC Santa Claus -1,5 1 68,5% 1,89 10/10 Sbobet
AC Kajaani - FC Santa Claus O3.75 66% 1,87 10/10 Sbobet
KPV - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,99 5/10 Sbobet

TP-47 - PS Kemi 37 21 42
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Really outrageous odds here. If anything, I've mostly been overrating PS Kemi but with TP-47's current form and the class difference between these teams there's no way PS Kemi's chances to win this game should be rated at 50 % or more. TP-47 doesn't have the services of defender Kovalev, who has usually started for them, but other than that no one notable is out. The total line will likely be 3.25, which doesn't interest me either way.

AC Kajaani - FC Santa Claus 84 9 7
o/u 2.5: 85 15

If AC Kajaani doesn't dick around like they did against FC YPA this should be another clear home win for the hosts. Santa Claus has only one loss from their last six games, but their performances haven't really been that good overall. The home team looks to have almost a full squad to choose, with the long-term injured Traore being the only one out. They even have a new player, Kazakh-Dutch-Turkish midfielder, so they're doing their best to fit in with the rest of northern Finland. Santa Claus' Edereho and Figho were busy stuffing themselves up for Ramadan last week, or it could that they've just been fired since there's practically no info coming from Rovaniemi other than the occasional payment default notes.

KPV - FC YPA 64 17 19
o/u 2.5: 72 28

KPV's form still seems a bit sluggish, but they were the better side against Santa Claus last week. Nothing good can be said about the away team, whose ineptness made even Warkaus JK's defense look stifling. YPA does get one of their key players back, with more to come in the near future, but this match will probably be too early for YPA to handle, which is obviously reflected in the odds too. Over looks like it might offer some value, but KPV is one of those teams along with PK-37 that I'm not eager to play overs.

OPS-SJK ht update, OPS completely out of sync, SJK should be leading 3-0 at least

Gambling and other wholesome interests

A promotion and a top offer for you guys, please read for your own good!

This is from the service provider Gambling and other wholesome interests; Keith

*************

 I have explained below what I do and you can see samples of one week's emails on this link.  That will give you a feel for how the daily service operates, but a better way is to sign up for the seven day free trial. I will then include you on the subscriber list for one week, there is no obligation and you will get no hard sell, I will of course send you details of how to sign up to the full service near the end of the trial period, but that will be the extent of my sales pitch !

All you need to do is send an email to me at ..... gowi8@btinternet.com  , with the subject title " free trial" and I will include you on the subscriber list starting the following Monday.


Hi,

My name is Keith and I have been writing a sports betting blog  GAMBLING AND OTHER WHOLESOME INTERESTS,  since April 2006.

 

 I also run a daily email service, this is a subscription based pay service and subscribers receive my full daily notes each day, usually at 10.00 UK time, at very busy times ( most Sunday's for example) there are two emails per day. These are written in newsletter format and usually include a brief look back at the events of the previous day and full preview of all sporting events taking place that day, or in the future, which interest me.

 

The average email runs to between 1200-2000 words, with most events discussed given reasonably comprehensive coverage. IMO the content is worth more than the actual tip/ selection. Most of my readers are fairly experienced punters ( not all), some are full time professional players and need this information to make a considered call on whether to bet the selection or not. Every event previewed carries either a black type suggestion, or red type official selection, I would not expect readers/ subscribers to bet everything, but some do and long term they will make a profit, but there is far more about the service than simply the bottom line and by reading the full preview, readers will get far more from the emails.

 

This is why I do not usually give out stats for the red type bets, as IMO this devalues the content/ back type picks, all of which have great value in my opinion.... I am writing them for a reason ! About 10% of these previews are reproduced on the blog, the other 90%+ are only ever available to subscribers and not published elsewhere.

 

I can explain the previews in a little more detail..... Red type picks are selections I will definitely be backing myself, the black type have something if not exactly "wrong" with them, maybe something which requires a little thought or consideration. This could be that the odds have fallen below what I want to take, my minimum quote, it might be that at the time of writing some teams news was still unclear, it could be that I have already given a red type selection for the game, all of these reasons are usually made clear.

 

For example, on June 13 for the Portugal - Denmark game my suggestion, where I was very keen on Portugal read .....However, we are not going to get very fat on 1.85-1.9 for the win, so I will leave it in black type, if the line shifts later in the day, or you find 2.0 + early in the match and both should be reasonably cautious through the opening exchanges, then take it ( I would make that a 1.25 unit bet @ 2.0+).

 

Portugal traded at 2.06 after nine minutes and won 3-2.

 

Another example was this match LINK , this was a game where if you read the preview it was obvious that I was about as keen on the match as possible from a betting perspective, but I gave two red type bets on the game and did not want to put up five, so the three others were put up as suggestions, for subscribers to make up their own mind. The two main bets won at 2.84 and 2.92 and two of the black types also won at odds of 5.0 and 10.0, the correct score of 6-2 @ 125-1 just missed, as Real won 5-2 and had a clear chance late in the game for the sixth ! That game is an extreme example, it is rare for me to ever put up even one extra suggestion in a game, let alone two or three, but it gives you an idea of how things work and also, subscribers were well aware of exactly how keen I was on that match.

 

Any red type selections are also given a ranking of between 0.25 and 2.0 units, one unit is standard, so I do not usually mention a stake for these, just give the pick, sub one unit is rare, so most picks are between 1-1.5 units, two units is my maximum and since the turn of the year, whilst still only two units, these have been given a higher ranking ( if that makes sense). There have been far fewer of them and subscribers have been told that the difference between a 1.5  and 2 unit pick is FAR greater than even between a 0.5 and 1.5 unit selection and should be backed as such. The maximum bets have all the boxes ticked and whilst they are not "bankers", which is a term you will never hear me use, they fulfill all my criteria, including the most important of all and that is offering fantastic value. There have been just three of these in 2012 and all have won at odds of 2.29, 2.20 and 2.00.

 

I am loathe to give stats for the email service for the reasons given above and also as they are not proofed anywhere, but over the last 15 weeks I have previewed  over 300 events and put up 270 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 327 units and returns 424.44 units, a ROI of 129.80 % and a profit of 97.44  units, a 50 euro unit flat stake would have won 4,872 euros . I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above. 

 

You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.

 

Kind regards,

Keith