28.3.2011

Portugal - Finland friendly March 29th (FST will show it in Finland live!)

Edit: FT 2-0. Must say Finland were even 10 times worse than I expected and 5-0 would be more correct. Or 8-0. There was absolute not one good thing in the performance. Shame, but no surprise.

Goal.com preview:

Finland starting 11:
1 Otto Fredrikson, Spartak Naltchik 30.11.1989 10 / 0
2 Petri Pasanen, Werder Bremen 24.09.1980 62 / 1
5 Jukka Raitala, SC Paderborn 07 15.09.1988 3 / 0
6 Mika Väyrynen, SC Heerenveen 28.12.1981 48 / 5
7 Roman Eremenko, FC Dynamo Kyiev 19.03.1987 33 / 1
8 Perparim Hetemaj, Brescia Calcio 12.12.1986 3 / 0
11 Daniel Sjölund, Djurgårdens IF 22.04.1983 26 / 2
15 Markus Heikkinen, SK Rapid Wien 13.10.1978 57 / 0
16 Kari Arkivuo, BK Häcken 23.06.1983 7 / 1
18 Berat Sadik, HJK 14.09.1986 4 / 0
20 Alexei Eremenko jr, Kilmarnock FC 24.03.1983 49 / 13


Judging by the tweets on Mikael Forssell the weather has been relatively bad ahead of the match and Finland were denied access to the stadium for practice.

Portugal:

Guarda-redes: Eduardo (Genova CF), Ventura (Portimonense SC) eRui Patrício (Sporting CP);

Defesas: Bruno Alves (FC Zenit), Fábio Coentrão (SL Benfica), João Pereira (Sporting CP), Pepe (Real Madrid), Ricardo Carvalho (Real Madrid), Rolando (FC Porto) e Sílvio (SC Braga);

Médios: Carlos Martins (SL Benfica), João Moutinho (FC Porto), Miguel Veloso (Genova CF), Paulo Machado (Toulouse FC), Raul Meireles (Liverpool FC) e Ruben Micael (FC Porto);

Avançados: Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid), Danny (FC Zenit), Hélder Postiga (Sporting CP), Hugo Almeida (Besiktas), Nani (Manchester United), Ricardo Quaresma (Besiktas) e Varela (FC Porto)

Finland:
Gk
Lukas Hradecky Esbjerg fB 24.11.1989 2 / 0
Otto Fredrikson Spartak Naltchik 30.11.1989 10 / 0
Anssi Jaakkola Kilmarnock FC 13.03.1987 0 / 0

Df
Niklas Moisander AZ Alkmaar 29.09.1985 17 / 1
Jukka Raitala SC Paderborn 07 15.09.1988 3 / 0
Joona Toivio Djurgårdens IF 10.03.1988 1 / 0
Petri Pasanen Werder Bremen 24.09.1980 62 / 1
Markus Heikkinen SK Rapid Wien 13.10.1978 57 / 0
Ville Jalasto  Aalesunds FK 19.04.1986 1 / 0
Kari Arkivuo BK Häcken 23.06.1983 7 / 1

Mf & att
Tim Sparv FC Groningen 20.02.1987 13 / 0
Roni Porokara KFC Germinal Beerschot 12.12.1983 19 / 5
Mika Väyrynen SC Heerenveen 28.12.1981 48 / 5
Perparim Hetemaj Brescia Calcio 12.12.1986 3 / 0
Roman Eremenko FC Dynamo Kyiev 19.03.1987 33 / 1
Riku Riski RTS Widzew Lodz 16.08.1989 1 / 0
Alexei Eremenko jr Kilmarnock FC 24.03.1983 49 / 13
Berat Sadik HJK 14.09.1986 4 / 0
Mikael Forssell Hannover 96 15.03.1981 73 / 24
Daniel Sjölund Djurgårdens IF  22.04.1983 26 / 2

03-29
21:45
Portugal
Finland
 -(1 / 1.5)   1.91   2.01   (2.5)   2.02   1.88 





03-29
21:45
Portugal
Finland
 -(1.5)   2.20   1.75   (2 / 2.5)   1.74   2.19



Slovakia - Finland U21

Highlights (and match report in Slovakian )of Saturday´s 3-2 here:

Line-up of Finland today, looks better than in the first match:

Saku-Pekka Sahlgren, HJK
Henri Toivomäki, AFC Ajax
Valtteri Moren, HJK
Tim Lahti, Haka/ AC Belluno
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Juuso Simpanen, FC Honka
Joni Kauko, FC Inter
Rasmus Schüller, FC Honka
Aleksander Ring, HJK
Teemu Pukki, HJK
Roope Riski, AC Cesena

Odds: Slovakia - 0,5 @ 2.05, total set at 2.5.

I like the Finnish team above, but know little of the Slovakians.

Finnish Cup 5th ; highlights Riverball - AC Oulu 2-2 (3-6 ET)

Paid Newsletter services 2011

First of all, the Free Edition will remain Free. It will consist of background info and news and even occasional bets and market moves but the emphasis is not directly into betting, but it should be a useful tool for all Do- It- Youself- recreational bettors. This will be published 1-3 times a week and sent directly to your mailbox. Have you ordered it yet from the link on the right? No obligations. Free means free and it will remain free of charge.

It can not include daily betting analysis and suggestions because otherwise I could not a charge a small amount for it from my Daily Betting Edition customers, which will be published on all match days of Veikkausliiga, Ykkönen, Kakkonen A, B and C. Which in effect really means daily apart from the short midsummer break in the end of June and a few Tuesdays during the season. Daily Edition will be sent after the odds in Asia are out and an analysis with the information available has been made. Usually somewhere around 12.00 CET. This Daily Edition is based on the experiences of season 2010 with the exception that not all matches are discussed in detail. If there is not enough information available we better just accept it and not waste everyone´s time by writing and reading about them. Price will be around 1 € per day.Yes, only 1 € per day.

The Pro Package is an improved version of the live betting experiment we started for the latter half of the last season. Improved by delivery; email is all good and handy, but to reach the customers even more quickly and freeing them from the computers SMS-delivery will take place. We do all have smartphones after all, don´t we? The delivery times are after the line-ups are published until the end of the first half in general and 1-4 SMS messages can be expected daily, live from the venues. On weekdays the schedule is around 17.00 - 18.15 CET.

Of course the format will restrict the amount of background info and will mostly consist of the bets I am taking myself  and I am suggesting to the customers, but behind every suggestion the analysis has been made. Every single time. Price is naturally a bit higher than it was last season, but so is the quality of the service too and though a live bet is never a guaranteed sure win my experiences with them in the untelevised lower leagues are very good, and as almost every customer of 2010 are still with me I take it as a sign that the service has been worth it.

Detailed offers will be sent later for the Newsletter customers, so if you are even slightly interested then first step is to sign up for the Free Edition. Next Newsletter will be sent on Wednesday and the 3 cup matches will be discussed, and I will see all of them in person as the schedule is very favourable.

Viikingit - IFK Mariehamn 14.00 CET
JäPS - KooTeePee 17.30 CET
FC Espoo - Kiffen 20.00 CET

All matches naturally open at Asian Markets, also for live betting.

Have a nice week!

27.3.2011

Cup odds moves Sunday 27.3.2011

About fighting match fixing by Declan Hill

His article in full here.

Another article with more emphasis in the RoPS case here:

Quoting Mr. Hill:

 ***

FIFA Early Warning System Congress and Seminar
25 March 2011  - 26 March 2011
Zurich, Switzerland

A good start, but almost totally useless.
Why?
Some of the people, but by no means everyone, in FIFA and the sports world, are corrupt. They know it. We know it. They know, we know it. Therefore, right from the beginning there is a credibility issue.
Two, most of the people actually giving speeches about fighting crime in sports know very little about crime and criminals. There is now a host of ‘consultants’ and ‘experts’ in sports corruption. They know little.
Three, the most interesting people are from the private company that FIFA leaders founded ‘the Early Warning System’. For the most part, their executives are deeply honest and refreshingly forthright about the problems they face in monitoring gambling markets for corruption.
Their essential problem is that they are trying to figure out corruption in football matches just from watching the changes in the odds in the betting market. This like trying to spot insider trading from reading the stock market listings in the newspaper. You can get certain information (a stock moves sharply up or down), but it does not necessarily mean corruption.
They also have difficultly getting complete and accurate information from the Asian gambling markets, where most fixers place their bets even when fixing matches in other parts of the world.
They also have difficultly getting bookmakers to share who is placing the bets. This is key to really understanding whether there is corruption going on.

Fixers are also intelligent. They spend a lot of time hiding their bets – just fixing the underdog team means that there will be no unexpected movement in the bets. The EWS guys – or any other gambling monitoring – cannot detect these types of fixes, unless the fixers make a series of errors (which they usually do not). 

Finally, and this is key to understanding the entire FIFA seminar, even if the EWS spots a possible corrupt match – so what? FIFA has no investigators to investigate it. Interpol has no investigators to investigate it. The sports world in general has no investigators to investigate it. No matter what dramatic headlines declare, no matter what ‘consultants’ tell you, no matter what sports executives say in solemn tones at these types of seminars – until there is an International Agency to fight sports corruption these events will be for show only.

25.3.2011

Honka - JJK highlights league cup semi 2011 FT 2-1

Finnish Cup - a lot on interesting matches during the weekend

195 26.3.2011 13:30 ISS-Stadion PK-35 Klubi-04 
190 26.3.2011 14:30 Tellushalli JBK P-Iirot 
192 26.3.2011 14:30 Wallsport Areena SJK FC Jazz 
198 26.3.2011 15:00 Talin halli LPS KäPa 
201 26.3.2011 16:00 Kisapuiston tn FC Kuusysi FC Hämeenlinna 
203 26.3.2011 16:00 Karjaan tn EIF HIFK 
188 26.3.2011 16:30 Liedon htn MaPS FCV 
193 26.3.2011 17:30 Urpolan tn MP JIPPO 
202 26.3.2011 19:30 Töölö PK 6 HDS Sudet 
189 27.3.2011 15:00 Koillispuiston tn SC Riverball AC Oulu 
204 27.3.2011 16:00 Karjaan tn BK-46 FC Lahti 
205 27.3.2011 20:15 Pirkkahalli NoPS MyPa 
187 28.3.2011 19:30 Jalkapallostadion, Kuopio Zulimanit ViPa 
194 30.3.2011 15:00 Fair Pay Areena FC Viikingit e IFK Mariehamn 
200 30.3.2011 18:30 Lukion tn JäPS FC KooTeePee 
197 2.4.2011 17:30 Leppävaaran tn LoPa FC Haka 
186 27.3.2011RoPS VPS
196 Härmä Gnistan 
199  30.3.2011        21.00 
FC Espoo FC Kiffen 

Finland away at Turkey

This is not a full international - and it easy to see from the Finnish line-up.


**********
Turkey U23  Finland 0-1 (0-1)
23. 0-1 Riku Riski

12. Anssi Jaakkola
4. Joona Toivio > 46’ 3. Niklas Moisander
5. Kari Arkivuo (v)
6. Ville Jalasto > 59’ 2. Jukka Raitala
7. Juha Hakola (v)> 80’ 19. Mika Ojala
8. Mehmet Hetemaj > 46’ 20. Teemu Pukki
10. Riku Riski
11. Sebastian Mannström > 46’ 17. Roni Porokara
14. Tim Sparv
18. Berat Sadik (v) > 59’ 9. Mikael Forssell
22. Paulus Arajuuri

Odds -0,5 @ 2.2 or so for the hosts. Finnish FA report here.

24.3.2011

Match fixing and other financial troubles

There is too much happening to really be able to write any article that might still be true tomorrow, but as the things unfold it might very well happen that season 2011 the league will be played without one or all of the trio

AC Oulu

RoPS

Tampere United.

We will see, the league will probably kick-off in April.

Finnish Cup 6th round draw

206 LPS - KäPa vs FC Viikingit - IFK Mariehamn
207 Zulimanit - ViPa vs FF Jaro
208 EIF - HIFK vs KuPS
209 NoPS - MYPA vs SC Riverball - AC Oulu
210 PK-35 - Klubi 04 vs FC Kuusysi - FC Hämeenlinna
211 TPS vs RoPS - VPS
212 MP - JIPPO vs JBK - P-Iirot
213 BK-46 - FC Lahti vs FC Kiffen - FC Espoo
214 FC Inter vs LoPa - FC Haka
215 Härmä - Gnistan vs HDS - Sudet
216 SJK - FC Jazz vs JäPS - FC KooTeePee
217 GBK vs MaPS - FCV

22.3.2011

League Cup semifinal Honka - JJK at 15.00 CET

Preview  sent to all Newsletter customers this morning. Order a Free Edition now. ---------->

Odds published already yesterday this time, line was set at -1.25 but isn´t it a bit wrong? Honka might win but the line should be -0,75.

League´s preview in local language here. 

JJK´s betting oriented preview here, 55 % for Honka is not far from the truth perhaps.

Club Friendly PK-35 - Haka 14.30 CET on Tuesday

Hosts should really the favourites here though they are at the moment playing at lower level. Haka will rotate their weak material ahead of the other friendly on this Friday away at PoPa, and they do not have the luxury to really afford it. PK-35 are hungry to take the scalp of a league club and their performances have been solid throughout the pre-season, the excpetion being the cup match away at EIF where they had a clear attitude problem whis is likely solved vs a league club.

At +0,25 @ 1.95 PK-35 are an excellent betting opportunity, likely to drop a lot.

Edit: FT 1-1, local report. The match was a few minutes short from 90 minutes and bets got void.  PK were not at their freshest today, result is true to performances on the pitch.

21.3.2011

Finland U21 squad vs Slovakia 26 - 28.3.2011

Edit: Starting line-up for the second match 18.00 CET on March 28th, in my opionion a better version of the line-up who lost a bit undeservedly 3-2 on Sat.


Saku-Pekka Sahlgren, HJK

Henri Toivomäki, AFC Ajax
Valtteri Moren, HJK
Tim Lahti, Haka/ AC Belluno
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK

Juuso Simpanen, FC Honka
Joni Kauko, FC Inter
Rasmus Schüller, FC Honka
Aleksander Ring, HJK

Teemu Pukki, HJK
Roope Riski, AC Cesena


First match 3-2 (0-1)

Gk
Saku-Pekka Sahlgren HJK 08.04.1992 1/0
Walter Viitala FC Honka 09.01.1992 0/0

Def
Henri Toivomäki AFC Ajax 21.02.1991 4/0
Tero Mäntylä FC Inter 18.04.1991 4/0
Valtteri Moren HJK 15.06.1991 2/0
Mikko Sumusalo HJK 12.03.1990 12/0
Timi Lahti FC Haka/AC Belluno 28.06.1990 4/0
Tuomas Rannankari FC Twente 21.05.1991 0/0

Mf & att
Joni Kauko FC Inter 12.07.1990 13/2
Juho Lähde TPS 11.02.1991 4/0
Juuso Simpanen FC Honka 08.06.1991 5/1
Denis Abdulahi Örebro SK 22.05.1990 4/1
Petteri Pennanen TPS 19.09.1990 3/0
Rasmus Schüller FC Honka 18.06.1991 5/0
Riku Heini VPS 09.12.1990 4/1
Alexander Ring HJK 09.04.1991 3/1
Roope Riski AC Cesena 16.08.1991 4/4
Teemu Pukki HJK 29.03.1990 19/6

Finland squad in Portugal 29.3.2011

Gk
Lukas Hradecky Esbjerg fB 24.11.1989 2 / 0
Otto Fredrikson Spartak Naltchik 30.11.1989 10 / 0
Anssi Jaakkola Kilmarnock FC 13.03.1987 0 / 0

Def
Niklas Moisander AZ Alkmaar 29.09.1985 17 / 1
Jukka Raitala SC Paderborn 07 15.09.1988 3 / 0
Joona Toivio Djurgårdens IF 10.03.1988 1 / 0
Petri Pasanen Werder Bremen 24.09.1980 62 / 1
Hannu Patronen Helsingborgs IF 23.05.1984 1 / 0
Markus Heikkinen SK Rapid Wien 13.10.1978 57 / 0

Mf & att
Tim Sparv FC Groningen 20.02.1987 13 / 0
Roni Porokara KFC Germinal Beerschot 12.12.1983 19 / 5
Mika Väyrynen SC Heerenveen 28.12.1981 48 / 5
Kasper Hämäläinen Djurgårdens IF 08.08.1986 12 / 2
Perparim Hetemaj Brescia Calcio 12.12.1986 3 / 0
Roman Eremenko FC Dynamo Kyiev 19.03.1987 33 / 1
Riku Riski RTS Widzew Lodz 16.08.1989 1 / 0
Alexei Eremenko jr Kilmarnock FC 24.03.1983 49 / 13
Berat Sadik HJK 14.09.1986 4 / 0
Mikael Forssell Hannover 96 15.03.1981 73 / 24

Finland squad vs. Turkey (B)

Gk
Lukas Hradecky Esbjerg fB  24.11.1989 2 / 0
Otto Fredrikson Spartak Naltchik 30.11.1989 10 / 0
Anssi Jaakkola Kilmarnock FC 13.03.1987 0 / 0

Def
Ville Jalasto  Aalesunds FK 19.04.1986 1 / 0
Joona Toivio  Djurgårdens IF 10.03.1988 1 / 0
Niklas Moisander AZ Alkmaar 29.09.1985 17 / 1
Paulus Arajuuri Kalmar FF 15.06.1988 1 / 0
Jukka Raitala SC Paderborn 07 15.09.1988 3 / 0
Kari Arkivuo BK Häcken 23.06.1983 7 / 1

Mf & att
Tim Sparv FC Groningen 20.02.1987 13 / 0
Mehmet Hetemaj U.C. Albino Leffe 08.12.1987 2 / 0
Daniel Sjölund Djurgårdens IF  22.04.1983 26 / 2
Juha Hakola Willem II 27.10.1987 1 / 0
Teemu Pukki HJK 29.03.1990 3 / 0
Sebastian Mannström HJK 29.10.1988 1 / 0
Roni Porokara KFC Germinal Beerschot 12.12.1983 19 / 5
Riku Riski RTS Widzew Lodz 16.08.1989 1 / 0
Berat Sadik HJK 14.09.1986 4 / 0
Mikael Forssell Hannover 96 15.03.1981 73 / 24

March 21st


League Cup - 3 matches to go

Home advantage was crucial at quarters as all 4 home teams proceed to semifinals. HJK won KuPS far more easily than the FT score 4-3 suggests but their defenders had a day off and seemingly could not care less. Highlights from HJK TV here.  Unless you are bored I can not really recommend the link though, difficult weather conditions made it look even worse than usual.

Honka won Jaro 2-0 in the end, but despite keeping the clean sheet the problems in the center of the defense are far from solved. Honka miss one or two good defenders and it is a fact they have to deal with if they want to win something this season, but at least they are very overish club to follow at the moment.

TamU beat strikerless TPS 1-0. Even the last of the TPS strikers Mika Ääritalo was missing from the line-up, and there was no sign of the two test strikers mentioned in the preview. A boring and low-scoring encounter as expected.

JJK won Inter after a penalty shoot-out. Inter had their chances to finish the match off in the first half but scoring goals remains their problem number 1. They just do not know how to find the net, but all in all their performances are in good form. Highlights.

The first semifinal Honka - JJK will be played on Wed 23rd of March, the other one TamU - HJK on 2nd of April. The final will take place  April 23rd before the league season starts the following week.

The Finnish Cup

Both 4th and 5th round are under way and not too many shocking results have occurred so far. The league teams have the following schedule;

Clubs in the semifinals will join the Cup on 7th round.
Losing clubs from quarters will join the 6th round.
5th round:
Viikingit (1.div) - MIFK
LoPa  (2.) - Haka
NoPS (3.) - MyPa
RoPS - VPS
Riverball (2.) - AC Oulu

At the moment there are still 5 RoPS players under arrest, not the best way to prepare for a cup match in the weekend I suppose. Haka, MyPa and AC Oulu really have to underperform badly to get kicked out, but for MIFK it is no walk in the park though Viikingit were far from convincing in their 4th round win over 3rd div. AC Vantaa. Full Cup schedule here.

A preview for Wednesday´s Honka - JJK  at CET 15.00 to follow on match day. International match weekend means that probably the cup matches are also available for live betting during the weekend but more about them later. Finland national team will meet Turkey U23 and Portugal but they are not very interesting matches betting-wise. Finnish squad is on an experimental stage, but they did ok vs. Belgium last time around with  a same type of a squad. U21 team is away in Slovakia.

Have a nice week, back to you on Wednesday

19.3.2011

March 19th League Cup play-offs

League Cup goes on - and so does the Finnish Cup!

Hi lads!

Edit: Heavy snowing, Honka-Jaro might be transferred indoors and it would increase Honka´s winning chances even more.No more line-ups or new info, definitely not a laptop weather to update anything from the venue.

Full start for outdoor season, though at Tampere the match will be indoors. There might be a bit snowing here and there but the pitches are in good enough condition and the snow should not spoil the matches. The winners go to semifinals and to the 7th round of the Finnish Cup directly, the losers of these matches continue their season with the 6th Cup round which will be drawn next week. The winner of the League Cup gets a monetary prize but no European competition spots are available, so the importance of this Cup is not huge in that sense. No extra time will be played, straight into penalty shoot-out if the matches are at draw at FT.

Very clear home favourites in the first two matches, two others are much more even. I am planning to take both Honka and HJK, but as usual I will be hunting the optimal time and odds for these.

Honka - FF Jaro
Honka were the most entertaining club during pre-season, a plenty of goals at both ends in all matches. In the attack they are obviously i form, and as there are no more test defenders any more also the defence is likely to be more tight. Honka have not played in this competition for weeks because they were the first to finish their schedule and go off to a camp in Turkey. Honka are well-prepared and again one of the favourites to win this cup and the League. Jaro played their last match last weekend away at JJK and lost 1-0. Team news at Honka tell about only long-term mf Vasara being missed and there are more than 20 players to choose from. At Jaro there are a few injuries and also some players are playing with the reserves. If Honka have been concentrating at least a bit into defence since the group phase this should be a clear home win. If you think about live betting as I do you have to keep in mind that in the group phase Honka conceded the first goal 5 times out 6, and was even 3 goals behind MyPa and 2 behind Haka. -0.75 @ 1.66 is not what I want to get from this, a bigger hc with bigger odds suits me ok, or the same -0.75 in live betting.



HJK - KuPS
HJK will be without mf Yobe who was arrested for manipulating results, but they got Finnish legend Jari Litmanen instead.  KuPS have been missing defenders lately and the same applies today as Joenmäki and Holopainen are out, along with midfielders Oravainen and Hynynen. 1st choice gk Vilmunen is a questionmark. KuPS test new striker from Ghana (or was it Guinea?), but under these circumstances home win looks very likely. HJK are at -1.25 @ 1.93 and I took it now as HJK odds usually drop further towards kick-off.  I will be there myself today but it might be there is no better chance to take it today even live. HJK have had their problems when in lead, but they have also started the matches well.

TamU - TPS
TamU are unbeaten since Lahti Cup final in January vs KuPS, but it tells more about the poor quality of the Northern Group in the cup than of anything else. They have also been linked to this Singaporean match fixer discussed yesterday and perhaps all is not that well at Tampere either? TamU miss a couple of strikers due injury. TPS have lost their last two matches 0-4 vs Inter and Djurgården, and they lack attacking options a lot, but there should be two new strikers at test. Despite being indoors this match smells like a low-scoring affair but depending on who TPS are missing TamU might also raise some interest. Obviously there has been  some illness and flu in the TamU camp and they have very little to offer from the bench.n Not touching this before seeing the actual line-ups, and perhaps not even after seeing them. -0,25 @ 2.15 for TamU available which is a good price IF TPS are still without Kolehmainen, Nyberg and Heinikangas. IF they play I will definitely skip this with current odds.

Lineups:
TamU: 1 Mika Hilander, 4 Kristian Kojola, 5 Antti Ojanperä, 6 Jonas Emet, 7 Jari Niemi, 8 Jarkko Värttö, 9 Mika Lahtinen, 11 Aleksei Kangaskolkka, 16 Ilari Ruuth, 25 Aapo Lappalainen, 27 Johannes Mononen.

Subs: 12 Jere Pyhäränta, 10 Sergei Korsunov, 17 Antto Hilska, 21 Jonne Hjelm

TPS: 12 Jukka Lehtovaara, 2 Mikael Liespuu, 3 Kalle Mäkinen, 7 Sami Rähmönen, 8 Jarno Heinikangas, 10 Petteri Pennanen, 13 Toni Kolehmainen, 15 Ali Al Take, 19 Patrik Lomski, 23 Juho Lähde, 25 Santeri Mäkinen
Subs: 35 Henrik Moisander, 9 Janne Vuorinen, 17 Tomas Hradecky, 24 Floribert N´Galula, 31 Jere Uronen

TamU 0 @ 2.02


JJK - Inter
This is the match which shows most clearly the class difference of the two groups. I was hoping for a more even set-up and perhaps I might skip this in the end. JJK defence was in terrible shape in the group phasot e, and as they are missing today Hyyrynen and Wusu from the front it limits their attacking options to Virtanen and Manninen, personally I do see Tommi Kari as a threat to a solid Inter defence. Inter have defender Joni Aho suspended but he will be rather easily replaced. Inter not to lose this one, there is -0,25 @ 1.87 available but I am not all sure of what will be the market reaction in this and this is another match under consideration at the moment.

JJK: 30 Janne Korhonen, 2 Samu Nieminen, 5 Juha Pasoja, 6 Jukka-Pekka Tuomanen, 7 Anssi Viren, 8 Eero Korte, 9 Mikko Manninen, 14 Tamas Gruborovics, 16 Niko Markkula, 21 Zakaria Abahassine, 26 Jani Virtanen

Subs: 1 Mihaly Szerovay, 3 Mikk Reintam, 4 Jarkko Okkonen, 10 Tommi Kari, 19 Niko Kautto, 23 Patrick
Poutiainen

FC Inter: 1 Magnus Bahne, 2 Tero Mäntylä, 7 Ari Nyman, 8 Daniel Osinachi, 10 Domgoj Abramovic, 15 Severi Paajanen, 17 Mika Ojala, 22 Sami Sanevuori, 23 Ville Nikkari, 24 Joni Kauko, 29 Henri Lehtonen

Subs: 13 Eemeli Reponen, 11 Timo Furuholm, 16 Kalle Kauppi, 20 Ville Neulanen

Edit: took Inter -0.25 @ 1.95



The odds will move one way or another before the kick-offs as the line-ups will be published one by one. There are so many questionmarks regarding line-ups in most teams that I do not want to recommend any other bets at right now, but as mentioned I will probably take Honka  at some point, then Inter and TamU are the next on the waiting list depending especially what kind of team news there are from Tampere.

Planning to update this post a bit when I get more info, so stay tuned! Also a late Finnish Cup kick-off today of an interesting AC Vantaa - Viikingit possibly to follow.

Enjoy your day, it is Saturday!

League Cup odds March 19th

Previews in the Newsletter.  A lot of important team news. -------------------->

18.3.2011

Fixland Football News

March 18th
Breking Fix news are no longer news

What did we talk last time about the match fixing situation? An update nevertheless. A short one and I am doing my best in trying to avoid spreading any rumours or making innocent men guilty. The local media is all over the fixing scandal, too bad that most of them have no clue what they are talking about, especially when referring to "asian markets" which seem to represent all evil.

It all started with the arrest of a known Singaporean match fixer Wilson Raj Perumal on his way back from Rovaniemi a few weeks ago.

There were big market moves in RoPS matches, but this is really no news at all. It has been happening for years and it has been known that there are/have been rotten apples at Rovaniemi. Some of them have been kicked out earlier without a trial, all players in question origniate from Eastern Europe.

This time Perumal´s  connections at Rovaniemi were found - a Zambian player, one of many in the club.

4 other RoPS players got arrested a week later, one Georgian, the rest Zambians.

Two brothers - also of Zambian origin - got picked up by the police for questioning. Today they play at OPS and HJK respectively but last season their club was AC Oulu. Well, looks like these fellows are not going to be playing here never again.

Tampere United are questioned of their connections with this Singaporean mastermind - did they receive surprise funding all of a sudden? At least the Hungarian test players they had for example at Lahti Cup seem to be connected to Singapore as well. TamU owners say they have no idea of anything - which can not be all true.

There is a lot of talk, assumptions, guesses and accusations in the air. Some of them wrong, some right.


The good news out of all is this that the season 2011 is going to a clean one. The main culprits are under investigation or arrested, and with all this talk and surveillance fixing matches is unlikely to be a very attractive option. I have said it before and I repeat, not all big market moves in Finland in the past or in the future mean that the match is fixed, it is more of a question of a less liquid market with only a few team news in any understandable language. I can tell that by analyzing the results of the matches where there was a big lump of money invested on one of the teams. In many cases the "wise" money appeared to be unwise or very unlucky. They had just been following the rumours and then each other.

Season 2011
Of course it would be soon nice to know which teams take part in the league and which ones at lower levels. The case of AC Oulu has been going for months, it should had been decided in January whether they can play in the league or not . The FA and the League are very toothless organizations, they pretend to follow their own rules but when talked back they rather hide and hope all bad things just disapperaring. Hey idiots, the league starts in next month, any chance of making up your mind some day? At the moment it is basically cristal clear that Oulu will be at Ykkönen instead of the League, which would mean that both top leagues consist of 13 clubs each. Nice.

There will be new names in the match fixing scandal sooner or later, but I would like to concentrate again in the core business and analyze the games. Tomorrow league cup quarter finals in the afternoon, and I will come up tomorrow with match previews and possibly betting ideas if the clubs still exist tomorrow. I have an idea of a valuable bet and a strategy for a couple of matches but of course need team news and odds to see if my insight is right.

HJK - KuPS
Honka - Jaro
TamU - TPS
JJK - Inter.


Enjoy your Friday and weekend!

15.3.2011

The Big Fix - Kelong King caught

Asiaone  about Perumal

The Police did bring 6 new players to be questioned yesterday regarding match fixing last season in the league and in the league cup of 2011. It is no big surprise that 4 of them are RoPS players and two are from AC Oulu from season 2010.

All of them might not be guilty, and possibly there are more players at some clubs, the police is going to talk more details about this on Friday. I want to remind you that the clubs are not the guilty parts here, only the individual players.

The good news in this is that it is coming out. Fixing has been a known fact in certain clubs for years but the FA have not had the power (or will?) to spot it, and same can be said from the local bookie Veikkaus who is the first to critizize and moralize if they lose money, but if it is some other bookie or customers they could not care less.

More to come, but this week the emphasis should be in the league cup quarter-finals and in the cup 4th round.

A great article about fixing in general here.

11.3.2011

Polish Ekstraklasa Spring 2011 by Szaku

I will occasionally recommend other sites or services because of the pure quality of them. Here is the preview for Polish Ekstraklasa by Szaku for the Spring Season 2011.

DOWNLOAD FILE - Preview Spring 2011 Polish Ekstraklasa

10.3.2011

TPS - Inter in the League Cup on Friday

Preview has been sent to the free Finnish Football Newsletter subscribers -  you can easily order a free copy for yourself in a matter of seconds from the link on the right. This time preview available also at Twitter or here:

Weather conditions do not support playing football, but it should be another fiery derby tonight.

Jari Litmanen going to HJK?

Not if the Lahti fans may decide; read the whole story from Yle News:

8.3.2011

Transferring from blog to Newsletter

Not entirely though, but at the moment I strongly feel there is going to be significantly less blogging and a lot more writing up Newsletters to my customers. There is still room for those interested, and there will be a Free Edition through out the season. If you do not want to miss out the information then sign-up on the right. Should not take more than 10 seconds of your time. Next Newsletter scheduled for Wednesday March 9th.

5.3.2011

Match fixing in an Afro-Arctic way

Honestly I am fed up with this case, but unfortunately I am afraid that far from all is revealed by now. Judging by the market behaviour and actual final full-time results there are not a lot of other dirty clubs than RoPS, but even a one is too many and a subject to raise rumours and odd market behaviour.

Naturally, calling RoPS a dirty club is a bit unfair if and when the culprits are individual players who have acted on their own initiative, but the RoPS player policy has been a catastrophe waiting to happen as they lease African players for the summer season only. Up yours RoPS!


Read more from Zambian sources here:


*****
Oh yes. There is a match today too. RoPS travel to meet fellow strugglers AC Oulu. Asian handicap is set at -1 (@ 2.03) for the hosts, who at the moment are denied the league license and have enough worries of their own.

AC Oulu - RoPS league cup preview here in Finnish.

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2.3.2011

KuPS - RoPS in the league cup today

Markets are a bit confused about this, and for a reason.

  • KuPS had a badly weakened line-up last week away at Oulu and far from ideal also today,
  •  RoPS have been in the centre of match fixing allegations lately (sic) and the markets have reacted accordingly
  • This is the first home match for KuPS this season, also first time outdoors
  • RoPS did get their full squad together only some time ago as most of the players are African and they did not stay the winter at Rovaniemi
  • KuPS -1.15 @ 2 now, could go either way with or without a reason, but represents definitely no value if the starting line-up is the same it was last week
  • RoPS did fight a 1-1 draw last week at home, and they have enough talent in the squad to give a match against any team in the league if they so wish.
No bet from me at the moment, need to see actual line-ups and follow how the markets react today.