31.5.2010

Newsletter customers got this


well they did get a lot of things also this week, but here is a piece of the Team News sheet sent on Thursday, with estimations.

A good value bet for AC Oulu, accurate info of the injury situation and NT exhaustion. Next we need MyPa not to lose and it should not be too much to ask against a weak Haka side.

Inter - Oulu live commentary - some possible picks?

If my memory serves me right Inter Turku was established 1990 by Mr Stefan Håkans for his son Patrik because he was not good enough to get playing in minutes at his team at the time. Mr Håkans is heavily involved in shipping and a team of that calibre is a nice hobby.

The price of AC Oulu keeps on rising. +0,75 @ 1.98 is pure class.

4 minutes to kick-off, Oulu have a an attacking line-up. Inter have the problems we have discussed earlier.

Lively start!

Grot had a chance... but he can not convert.
Chances for both teams, no goals yet. Where is the midfield?
Inter get way too easily to Oulu danger area, but I am expecting it to stop soon

16 minutes gone and it is getting slower.

The commentator called Oulu Gk a Brazilian champion, but my ever-alert contacts corrected me that he was a state champion with Avai back in 1997.

20 minutes gone. Quiet.

25 minutes, I guess I start with the Haka - MyPa preview. This is getting boring and there is a good bet in.

27 minutes 0-1, goal by Pennanen, mistake by Henri Lehtonen. looks like my key players are in form ;)

33 minutes, Inter corner. What is the point of having two guys by the flag? It helps in scoring?

36 minutes, Oulu free-kick. Nurmela? No it was Kukka with his left foot. Kukka has background at Honka and Atlantis.

40 minutes. The usual Inter control, but in the end they create absolutely nothing.

45 minutes. 2 added minutes, i will start working on Haka - MyPa now. No more comments, enjoy the match, especially if you have the Oulu bets taken as suggested.

46 minutes 0-2 by a Hietanen header. Had to comment this one, take care guys!

***

Oulu are doing the killer trick and let Inter wait for the game to continue alone on the pitch.

But now I am busy with the Haka-match!

Inter sub another striker in, but he is Osinachi.

Inter - AC Oulu tonight

Inter : Monsalve – Lehtonen - Gomez – Nyman – Aho – Sanevuori - Antunez-Mäkitalo - Kennedy – Paajanen – Grot?

Oulu: Rodrigues – Hurme – Hietanen – Meriläinen – Kukka – Majava – Nurmela – Pennanen – Yobe – NgambeNgambe - Jonke

LIVE STREAM ;

The injuries of Bantamoi, Ojala, and Kauko and Furuholm´s suspension made picturing the line-up a bit difficult, and the new Veikkausliiga.com – pages do not help as they give only 10 names for Inter.

There are problems now at all areas at Inter. Monsalve has not been a bad keeper but not a winning goalie either. The center-defence pair is not ideal and has not been the backbone it should be, the midfield is neither creative enough nor hard enough, and as a striker Grot is hardly doing his job because he very rarely scores. The season is only in the beginning, but it is time to start winning in the league if they want to fight for top spots, and at this match Inter are at their weakest as also Ojala is injured and there is no set-piece specialist in the team.

The market have moved into Inter´s direction as expected, but it is not the right direction. They are still the favourites to win the match because of AC Oulu´s poor away performances result-wise, but they would have deserved at least a point from Haka, they took a point from MyPa away and Inter today are not any better, but much more under mental pressure with weakened squad.

We have discussed Inter several times, at best they are a top team and play entertaining football and contol the game, but last time they really showed to be at their best was 2009 in the cup final. Their latest home win dates back to March when they won MIFK 2-1, and even that was something they did not fully deserve.

AC Oulu looked like they are on a downswing after a good pre-season and a league cup and it is probably true they are not going to win too many away games, but this could be one of them. Inter today with this line-up are a C – class team at best, and there is not much more than the home advantage to separate them. Oulu have stayed overnight at nearby Pori and come with fresh legs, Inter had the 120 minutes cup game at KPV on Thursday.

Oulu goalie Rodrigues is not to my liking and there are some serious doubts about some other players qualities as well, but the idea of backing Oulu is really to bet against todays´s Inter Turku.We have the +0,75 hc after all. Limit for that was at 1.70

The stats in the league are identical before the match. I would not be surprised if they are identical also after the match.

Players to watch:

Inter left-back Henri Lehtonen, let us say that he is very ”active”. Home fans love him and probably his mother does too. I am not so sure about the the rest of the veikkausliiga players.

Inter winger Kennedy. He is in charge of scoring in the absence of proper strikers.

Ac Oulu: Mf Mika Nurmela. A long career in Germany and in the NT, came back home last season and has good free-kicks.

Joonas Pennanen: a future talent.

We can discuss this LIVE at the blog if you so wish, I will post some thoughts here

Haka - MyPa preview

Haka starting eleven;

* 1 KORHONEN Janne
* 2 NOOITMEER Regi
* 3 KUIVASTO Toni
* 7 INNANEN Mikko
* 8 KAUPPILA Jani
* 11 HYNYNEN Antti
* 18 CHAVEZ Josef
* 20 OSEI Quincy
* 22 MATTILA Jarno
* 24 NAM Ik Kyuong
* 32 SANTALA Jukka

subs:

* 5 PARVIAINEN Kalle
* 10 GELA Xhevdet
* 12 PESONEN Saku
* 13 TRAORE Ben
* 15 JUUTI Jaakko
* 16 YLLACONZA Benito
* 17 MULTANEN Ka

To notice, Kalle Parviainen the center-back is rested and will start from the bench. Chavez is not Veikkausliiga quality and Santala would not had been my choice of strikers either.

23 minutes gone and finally the wlan is working, had to change stations between matches.

Nothing happening here, all customers with MyPa + 0,5 should be happy with themselves.

40 minutes. 0-0 and I am not very surprised. If you want to secure your MyPa bets you can do it, but Haka have not been real threat, a couple of chances so far.

HT 0-0. Okkonen did save MyPa a couple of times, but the draw is a justified result. I will leave the blog for tonight, more Veikkausliiga and Kakkonen tomorrow for Newsletter customers, here it will be more quiet.

Finland - Norway U21 2.6.2010 17.30 CET

Gk
Lukas Hradecky, Esbjerg fB
Jukka Lehtovaara, TPS

Df
Juhani Ojala, HJK
Jani Tanska, VPS
Paulus Arajuuri, Kalmar FF
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Henri Aalto, FC Honka
Ville Nikkari, FC Inter

Mf & strikers
Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka
Rasmus Schüller, FC Honka
Valeri Minkenen, FC Flora
Juuso Simpanen, FC Honka
Jani Virtanen, TPS
Sakari Mattila, Ascoli Calcio
Johannes Westö, HJK
Teemu Pukki, FC Sevilla
Pele Koljonen, MyPa
Niko Ikävalko, FC Haka

Ykkönen weekend quick review



JIPPO – Klubi 04 2-1
Even match, HJK´s Akseli Pelvas who is recovering from injury did play for Klubi04, perhaps one reason for tle local bookie to favour Klubi so strongly? Ramandingaye took a red card ands will be suspended.

PoPa – PK-35 4-3
PK-35 blew it in the dying minutes, and the positive energy gained by the change of a head coach went down the drain. PoPa can not defense set pieces properly.

Viikingit – TPV 1-1
Viikingit did it again, losing important points vs relegation candidates at home. Too bad.

RoPS – FC Hämeenlinna 5-2
There was one good team on the pitch as the scoreline says. Heavy drop on RoPS -1.5 which in theory is wise money, but the price went into ridiculous level.

Fc Espoo – OPS 1-2
Espoo started too cautiously and when they got 0-2 it was too late. A big drop in Espoo odds towards the kick-off. Wasted.

KPV – MP 3-0
A deserved home win when KPV got their engine rolling. Wise late money for KPV. MP Joonas Laaksonen sent out after 2 yellow cards and suspended.

Kemi – KooTeePee 0-3
Market found the right winner here as well, but it was hugely over-reacted once more. Two late goals for KooTeePee make this look easier as it was. Even the first goal was from a penalty and lead to a red card on the 2nd half for Sami Hyvärinen who will be suspended.

 RoPS            6  5  1  0 16-3 16     
KPV 6 4 1 1 13-3 13
KooTeePee 6 3 2 1 8-3 11
PS Kemi 6 3 2 1 7-5 11
FC Espoo 6 3 1 2 9-6 10
FC PoPa 6 3 1 2 11-9 10
OPS-jp 6 3 0 3 11-8 9
Klubi-04 7 2 2 3 9-11 8
JIPPO 6 1 4 1 5-6 7
FC Viikingit 6 1 3 2 5-6 6
PK-35 Vantaa 6 1 2 3 6-10 5
FC Hämeenlinna 6 1 1 4 7-15 4
MP 6 1 1 4 2-11 4
TPV 7 0 1 4 3-16 3

4.6. Klubi 04 - FC PoPa
5.6. FC H:linna- PS Kemi

30.5.2010

June

Yes, we have the World Cup! Best football available, good fun, big excitement and even nice betting opportunities.

All leagues are on a break.

Except Finland. There are no breaks, but the kick-off times have been adjusted so that is possible to see the World Cup match on TV and then rush in to your local stadium to see Atlantis in action. or HJK. Or Someron Voima.

There are 4 full rounds at Veikkausliiga,  cup quarters and semis, Ykkönen and Kakkonen with all 3 groups are in full swing.

More than a 100 matches in June, some with excellent betting opportunities if you just have the info, you know something like this from the Kakkonen C group insider,"

a piece of Sunday´s Newsletter, of course all the matches were discussed -

"FC Vaajakoski - PK-37

Key midfielder Leppänen is questionable for FCV. FCV should be a good middle-table team this season after they got some of the best players from their local rival FCJ. PK-37 is definitely the biggest surprise so far and they are a good example of how co-operation can sometimes help a lot as KuPS loans Simo Rönkkö, Petteri Rönkkö and co have been instrumental in their hot start. Rest of their team is almost at the level of other relegation favorites FCJ and KajHa but excellent strikers can really help at this level. European bookmakers have rated FCV as about 55% favorite which I tend to agree with. Last year PK-37 concentrated more on defending and were in my mind one of the group's under-like teams. FCV didn't seem like a all-out attack team last year when they visited Oulu but their matches were one of the highest-scoring around. This season their games have been more sluggish, but it remains to be seen if it is just because of a small sample size or a change of style."

-0,75 46,5%
o2.75 58

FT 4-0. All goals scored by Tomi Karlstedt.

End Of May

Thank you for all paying customers and a special thank you for all loyal and supposedly satisfied customers who have renewed their subscription way ahead of time! You are well appreciated!

End of month also means an end to all free trials. Hope you have enjoyed the ride, but it is now the time to decide if you like to continue with the service or not. I need to clear the mailing list to be able to offer more value for paying customers.


I fully understand if this is not exactly you wished for, and for anyone with a relatively small or a non-existent betting bank it does not make sense to pay for picks. After all, there are no sure winners in this service either.

The feedback has been mostly positive, there have been questions and critisism and I have made a few honest mistakes as well, but the backbone to the service has now been created. There will be developments and improvements, but of course there is a limit of how much a man can do.

The schedule for lower leagues info and picks can not be promised to be a 100 % accurate, but you should have a good idea by now how and when the info is published. In order to be able to analyze the value of a pick I need  both information and the odds, and they have been published late.

Sending "breaking news" - picks is a bit controversial. Of course I keep on doing it, but we all understand that if the info is solid and there is pressure on the market simultaneously the price does not stand, and the ones logging in at the bookie a few minutes later find the odds slashed. Unfortunately I see no solution to this as that is how the market goes. A better use of betting exchanges might help a bit, but that is entirely up to you guys.

Under these circumstances I probably hate a lot more losing picks than the lot of you together. It is a question of money and keeping the name intact, and believe me, no pick ever comes lightly.

I have a personal problem regarding my own bets at the moment as I can not possibly bet them before you do, and after that you do they are no value at all. However there is enough excitement in following them because your success is my success and I will restrain from pre-match betting also in June. There are still the live bets I can take and I will study this matter further.

The customer base should be now big enough to close it. Now more free trials, no promotions. I am not making big money out of this, but you pay for my time and expenses and if you are happy I am happy.

All current Newsletter subscribers will receive an offer regarding the future, and no one will ever be contacted through me if you decide not to follow. I am a serious believer of marketing and also targeted direct marketing can be succesful, but I like to keep this as a low-key operation, the atmosphere as friendly and professional as possible and I hope the same from you.

Have a nice day!

This betting thing is a bit serious sometimes

Thank god we have HIFK!

http://www.youtube.com/Riverball2006#p/a/u/0/9p1Eq1AOoTo

****

Kakkonen odds,

and a note regarding odds setting. The bookies try to fool us to take the overs categorically, the line is set so that the over-option has the bigger odds.

Honka - VPS lineups

Savage is getting a well earned benching and Hermanni Vuorinen starts for the first time, Schuller replaces Lepola. VPS have new faces in the defence as Eckhardt and Salmi will start. VPS defender Jussi Äijälä might be suspended or not, according to the league stats pages and my own book-keeping he has only 2 yellow cards from the league and 1 from the cup, but to find out the cup stats really demands a lot of spying and I would not wonder if nobody really knows. Can it really be that hard Veikkausliiga? Shape up! It does not really change anything if he plays or not, but it is really annoying not the get the info.

Honka
1 Tuomas Peltonen
2 Sampo Koskinen
3 Roope Heilala
6 Hermanni Vuorinen
10 Jami Puustinen
11 Hannu Haarala
14 Jussi Vasara
19 Rami Hakanpää
20 Nicholas Otaru
28 Rasmus Schuller
29 Juuso Simpanen

VPS
1 Jung-Hyuk Kwon
2 Jani Tanska
3 Gregory Eckhardt
6 Jussi-Pekka Savolainen
7 Tero Koskela
9 Jussi Aalto
14 Jens Nygård
17 Valtter Laaksonen
20 Sami Salmi
22 Tony Björk
25 Pekka Kainu

29.5.2010

Another busy Sunday in Finland - 14 matches

I will post something here today as well, but Newsletter customers are the priority and get it all and they get it first.  Change of month soon, the service will be refined, all free trials end which should help a bit with the market movements as the distribution of the letter is smaller and live picks will be offered more regularly in June as they seem to be well liked.


All kick-off at 17.30 CET


Honka - VPS at Veikkausliiga



A long-waited comeback for Hermanni Vuorinen whose return brings a lot of versatility and options for Honka attack.

At Ykkönen

KPV - MP
Viikingit- TPV
RoPS - FC H:linna
PS Kemi - KooTeePee

Kakkonen A

FC Futura - FC K:koski
Warkaus JK - PK Keski-Uus.
PEPO - KäPa 

Kakkonen B 

SalPa  - BK-46 
MuSa   - GrIFK        
EIF - LoPa
 
 
Kakkonen C
 
Seinäjoen JK - TP-47  
FC OPA - GBK
FCV - PK-37
 

Kakkonen C previews and picks


By a well-known 2C expert who is generous enough to share some thoughts here today.


FC YPA-KajHa

FC YPA is still one of best teams in the group even after the offseason departures of YPA-icon Kukkola, Vuletic, Peura and Saxman, who now plays at MyPa. However, I've had to rate them a somewhat lower this season as they didn't pick any quality replacements during the winter, although Owusu-Ansah seems to be a very good player so far. YPA had a bad preseason and didn't get their first win until in the third game, but they've played much better lately and could easily be in a three game winning streak if they  hadn't missed a late penalty against Santa Claus. KajHa was one of main relegation candidates before the season, and so far that has been the case in the pitch too.
They've actually had a easy quite easy schedule so far, so getting  only two points is disappointing. The last time they were in Kakkonen they had a really rough start, but after they went and got half a squad of eastern european guys, they even had some hopes for staying in the league. This season they have many of the same finnish players who didn't fare that well three years ago, so the expectations are understandably quite low, especially because last year's topscorers Obagbemiro and Amos have yet to join the squad.  This match should be an easy win for the hosts, there should be a lot of goals too although YPA's matches have been more low-scoring than I have expected, and it's a one thing I'm keeping a close eye on.

-1,5 58,5%  ( 79-13-8)


FC Santa Claus - FC Jyväskylä


Santa Claus has kept their squad intact, and they did get couple of quality players during the offseason so they probably won't be having
any problems staying in the league. However I'm not ready count them  among the best teams in this group, as this same squad wasn't that
good last year and they've had a bit of a luck so far in getting wins over YPA and VIFK. FCJ is not a team that I'm familiar with, as the
last year was their first in this group. They lost most of their best players from last year to their local rival FC Vaajakoski, so it's not
a suprise that they were dubbed as one of the teams most in danger of getting relegated. First four games have produced only one point, and
even if the schedule has been quite tough they haven't played that well.

Santa Claus is understandably a big favorite, but in my mind this is by no means such a walk in the park like the matches between the top
and the bottom teams. Last year Santa Claus didn't have any of their home games go under 2.5 goals(they did have a one-goal match against
YPA this year, but according to the reports they played very defensively which should not be the case against a team like FCJ),
even though they didn't seem like team that plays high scoring matches when they played here in Oulu. But obviously they don't play the same
way at home and the long journey to Rovaniemi is probably a factor too in the frequent goal fests.

-1,25 51,5%

Kakkonen asian odds


As expected City Stars odds did not last too long.

JIPPO – Klubi04

As a long-term pick JIPPO is not a team to take with a negative handicap. They are the most unlikely to create goal-chances as well to score, I consider last round´s 2-2 score away at Viikingit as a huge surprise, not because of the point but because of the 2 goals scored. They were very ugly and lucky but a goal is always a goal. Long bus trip and the unexperience of the very young Klubi04 team make me stay away from this. Local bookie sees Klubi04 as favourites and the odds tend to move to that direction in Asia too, the result is not guaranteed.

HJK play today at Mariehamn and had cup on Thursday, no key players from there to be expected.

Edit: The prices have gone now to favour JIPPO in asia. This might be a lively marketmover!

Summer weekends when the school is over

A disclaimer.

The early summer weekends sometimes bring surprises to the line-ups in the Ykkönen and Kakkonen levels. There are graduates from different schools having their graduate parties, and football is not the priority in these once in a lifetime situations. Naturally no missings because of this and the big hangovers are never published, which means that if we do not get the info the same applies to the bookies.

28.5.2010

Poland - Finland friendly tonight

From a Finnish point of view anything but a horrible performance would be a nice surprise. The head coach Stuart Baxter has lost his marbles in collecting players for this squad, and some of the experiments he is taking lead absolutely nowhere.

Today he has announced that in the starting eleven will be Kalle Parviainen from Haka as a center back, Otto Fredriksson will be between the posts, Tim Sparv and Kasper Hämäläinen are in the midfield.

"This is differenf from the Estonia match last week, in that match we made a lot of experiments but now we have more experience and it is important that the players get to know each other better on the pitch, " he said referring to the qualifying games ahead.

Mr Baxter, good luck. You are gonna need it.

Goalkeepers

Otto Fredrikson, Spartak Naltshik - 4 / 0
Niki Mäenpää, Willem II - 4 / 0

Defence

Tuomo Turunen, IFK Göteborg - 1 / 0
Ville Jalasto, Aalesunds FK - 0 / 0
Veli Lampi, FC Aarau - 17 / 0
Markus Heikkinen, SK Rapid Wien - 51 / 0
Niklas Moisander, AZ Alkmaar - 9 / 1
Kalle Parviainen, FC Haka - 0 / 0

Mf & strikers
Tim Sparv, FC Groningen - 6 / 0
Mika Väyrynen, SC Heerenveen - 42 / 3
Roni Porokara, Örebro SK - 12 / 2
Roman Eremenko, FC Dynamo Kyiev - 25 /  0
Jari Litmanen, FC Lahti - 131 / 31
Jonatan Johansson, TPS - 101 / 22
Juha Hakola, Heracles Almelo - 1 / 0
Teemu Pukki, Sevilla FC - 3 /0
Kasper Hämäläinen, Djurgårdens IF - 5 / 0
Mikael Forssell, Hannover 96 - 66 / 19
Paulus Roiha, Åtvidabergs FF - 18 / 4
Joel Perovuo, Djurgårdens IF- 1 / 0

Friday results Ykkönen & Kakkonen

Ykkönen
FC Espoo - OPS-jp 1-2 (0-0)
Espoo were too cautious in the start, OPS were more active. OPS scored twice from a counter on the second half and then it was already too late for an equalizer despite a good fight which caused some panic in the OPS defence for the last 20 minutes. The club owner Miika Juntunen was giving strategic advice form the stands with his his turbulent voice and masculine style, about 90 % of were directed to his own son Matias Juntunen who truly obliged and was responsible for both goals, though the first one seems to be doomed as an own goal afterwards.

Kakkonen

Atlantis - LPS 4-2 (0-1)

Atlantis kept the ball and tired LPS, and this is not going to be the last time LPS lose points in the 2nd half.


LOHKO B

Sinimustat - P-Iirot 1-3 (0-3)

Without decent help from Inter Turku Sinimustat are in trouble this season, at some point some decisions must be made as I can not see Inter coach Dragtstma letting Sinimustat sink to 3rd div as they need a proper level for their development team.

LOHKO C

JBK - VIFK
3-2 (2-2)

JBK were always a bit ahead, VIFK came back and equalized twice.

FC Kiisto - FC Korsholm
3-0 (0-0)

Kiisto scored at 90th minute to bring fully home the -1.75 hc bet, but it was never going to be a loser.

Ykkönen News

PK-35 change the head coach. Pasi Pihamaa will be promoted from assistant coach spot to take charge.

Mikko Lappalainen steps down from his own initiative, but stays within the organization.

Finland cup 7th round

TPS - Ilves
IFK Mariehamn - FC Inter
HJK - VPS
Haka - KuPS


9.-10.6

IFK Mariehamn - HJK Helsinki preview

Very interesting differences in odds setting. Local bookie offer 1.65 for HJK, Nordicbet price is 2.15! Obviously at least one of them is wrong. Interesting to see what the asians opening line will be.


MIFK – HJK

IFK had an easy cup match on Wednesday in Helsinki, and HJK had to work for full 90 minutes on Thursday vs. Honka with a best possible line-up, only Danny Hoesen was rested.

IFK have the home advantage and HJK have the disadvantage of long travel and the Thursday match, but usually HJK have emerged as winners from this fixture, and despite the missings in defence they get a decent line-up for the starting eleven, only the bench is a bit short from defense department.

IFK have started poorly the season, they should be about the same quality of team that finished 4th last season, but they have not produced and have had to learn the football from A to Z, at the moment the goal-keeper problem seems to be solved, and the defence is in order. A couple of goals vs. Gnistan in the cup also might help them mentally, but they have yet to win in the league. However they are not that poor as the table suggests and they will start climbing from trouble zone sooner or later.

Both teams played a goalless draw in the the league last round, and in the history of Veikkausliiga MIFK have not yet won HJK, but there have been 5 goalless draws out of 15 latest matches and 0-0 is a good starting point for this fixture.

IFK do not have the habit of losing at home, and the poor start 0-1-2 this season is down to poor form and mental issues, in the league cup this season they won both TPS and Lahti at home and drew with Honka.

HJK are just slightly the favourites here, but IFK´s first win of the season could not come to a better place and they have again the full support of the city of Mariehamn.

The eurobookers seem to overestimate HJK a lot, which is understandable in the light of the results and the table and the fame, but the match exhaustion, travel, injured center-back Kärkkäinen and improved IFK performances would make me hesitate before taking any ”sure” away wins here.

Unsurpsingly the Portuguese striker André Martins has been sent back to where he came from, he had very little to offer to MIFK.


Probable line-ups

IFK : Ochieng – Rikama – Voloshyn - Dujilo - Okodugha – Olofsson - Gruborovics - Niskala – Forsell - Anttilainen - Paatelainen.

HJK : Wallen – Sumusalo (Kansikas) – Ojala - Magnusson - Rafinha – Fowler (Saarinen) - Medo – Bah - Sorsa(Westö) – Mäkelä - Hoesen.

27.5.2010

Off to see some Kakkonen - Pallohonka - Åbo IFK

Have not seen for a while such a one-sided match - until the home red card that is. Pallohonka had some 25-30 shots on by that time on the second half, but managed to take a stupid red card on the second half, lost the control and eventually the whole match! Åbo IFK nr 11 Leroy played a good match and scored the winner.

FT 1-2 (1-1)

Fortunately I did not have my laptop with me for live betting because of the rain. It would had cost me dear..


The odds for Inter Turku  have dropped 1 hc at KPV away, a bit surprising considering the poor form of Inter.

FIN - SUI U16

FT 1-3 with a late consolidation goal for Finland. So called easy money from the market.

"Those players who did get to play on Tuesday will play today, also new faces will be tested. "

1  Dániel Kollár
2  Jere Uronen
3  Ville Rannikko
4  Dani Hatakka (kapteeni)
5  Joel Mero
9  Matias Ojala
10 Jaakko Hietikko
11  Youness Rahimi
16  Janne Kuhmonen
17  Simon Skrabb
18  Lassi Niemi

26.5.2010

Finland cup 6th round

Next round 9-10.6 with eight teams to go. Draw today.

SalReipas - Ilves 1-2 (1-1)
Ilves came on top with a better second half control of the game. Reipas were very entertaining and solid in the first one, but the ht seemed to make a difference. Of course it was still a draw until 79th minutes and could had been  a draw again at 85 when Reipas got - and missed - penalty, but it does not change the fact that the bet suggested Reipas + 0,5 - was lost.

Reipas are Kakkonen quality easily, but it does not help now anymore this season in asian handicap betting as they play in 3rd div and their matches will not be in offer.

Ilves played well and are the best Kakkonen team, but they had to work hard and have the luck on their side to to get to final 8 in the cup without any extra time.

Sudet - Haka 0-1 (0-1)
Early goal for Haka, and that is the end of story. I have been scoring myself vs. teams like Sudet but obviously Haka would need my services. According to the reports Haka were lucky not to condece a late a goal and they were very bad in the attacking third over all despite a 80 % ball possession. Who are thay facing in the league again?

Haka line-up was not ideal, but definitely good enough to produce some goods. On paper, not on the pitch.
Haka:

12. Saku Pesonen
2. Regillio Nooitmeer
3. Toni Kuivasto
7. Mikko Innanen
8. Jani Kauppila
13. Ben Traore
15. Jaakko Juuti
16. Benito Yllaconza
17. Kalle Multanen
18. Josef Chavez
20. Quicy Osei

subs
1. Janne Korhonen
10. Xhevdet Gela
22. Jarno Mattila
24. Ik Kyoung Nam
32. Jukka Santala.

MP - KuPS 0-2 (0-1)
A good fight, and in the end the better team won as favourites.

Gnistan - MIFK 0-3 (0-3)
Three goals in the first 30 minutes killed the rest of the game.

HJK - Honka 0-3 (0-1)
HJK
Ville Wallén
Rafinha
Juhani Ojala
Peter Magnusson
Tuomas Kansikas
Medo
Cheyne Fowler
Sebastian Sorsa
Dawda Bah
Erfan Zeneli
Juho Mäkelä

Honka
Janne Henriksson
Sampo Koskinen
Ville Koskimaa
Rami Hakanpää
Demba Savage
Jaakko Lepola
Rasmus Schuller
Nicolas Otaru
Jami Puustinen
Aleksandr Kokko
John Weckström

A deserved home win, Honka 2nd choice gk Janne Henriksson got his chance and missed it big time.


VPS - MyPa 1-0 (1-0)
Anyone who took a bet for VPS should at least thank the lady luck this time, she is not always against us! MyPa controlled, but a direct red card for Aho from saving a goal with a hand  and penalty for VPS changed the score, permanently.



TPS - Jaro (3-0)
Best TPS so far this season, and when they are good they are almost unstoppable. Eremenko Jr. started from the bench, but is fit to play. A hat trick for Riku Riski.

TPS
Moisander
Rähmönen
Jovanovic
Heinikangas
Nyberg
Cleaver
Milsom
Manninen
Ääritalo
Riski
Wusu


FF Jaro
Teles
Grove
Sarajärvi
Nosh a lody
Mannström
Kronholm
Matrone
Xhaveri
Zeze
Bäckman


KPV - Inter 0-1 (0-0, 0-0)
Inter got some new bad news, Furuholm revenged a challenge vs. Ojala and took a direct red card. Ojala will be out too perhaps, and there is nothing to cheer about at Inter camp. Another poor game.

The Shirt is complete

Bjorn says in the story that he is about to cry, the Shirt had been already sewn together without his knowledge. Read the full story here!

HIFK - Atlantis, a battle at Pallokenttä. FT 1-1.

25.5.2010

Finland - Norway U21 2.6.2010 17.30 CET

Team to be updated

Gk
Lukas Hradecky, Esbjerg fB

Df
Juhani Ojala, HJK
Jani Tanska, VPS
Paulus Arajuuri, Kalmar FF
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Henri Aalto, FC Honka
Ville Nikkari, FC Inter

Mf & strikers
Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka
Mika Ojala, FC Inter
Sakari Mattila, Ascoli Calcio
Johannes Westö, HJK
Teemu Pukki, FC Sevilla
Pele Koljonen, MyPa
Niko Ikävalko, FC Haka

24.5.2010

HJK - Lahti

live stream here at 17.30 CET

Watch Danny Hoesen, and naturally Jari Litmanen!

Line-ups:

HJK

1 Ville Wallén
4 Medo
5 Peter Magnusson
7 Janne Saarinen
8 Rafinha
10 Juho Mäkelä
14 Johannes Westö
17 Dawda Bah
18 Juhani Ojala
20 Danny Hoesen
21 Mikko Sumusalo

FC Lahti

22 Juha Tuomi
5 Jarkko Värttö
6 Tennant McVea
9 Rafael
10 Jari Litmanen
11 Drilon Shala
15 Jukka Vanninen
16 Pekka Sihvola
17 Eero Korte
18 Juho-Matti Heikari
29 Hugo Miranda

Key men: Bah & Hoesen - Litmanen & Rafael.

Proper preview at the Newsletter. With prices.

Finland Cup 6th round

26.5.2010 17:30 Sudet FC Haka
26.5.2010 17:30 Gnistan IFK Mariehamn
26.5.2010 18:00 MP KuPS
26.5.2010 18:30 SalReipas Ilves

27.5.2010 17:00 TPS FF Jaro
27.5.2010 17:30 VPS MYPA
27.5.2010 17:30 KPV FC Inter
27.5.2010 17:30 HJK FC Honka

All times CET. The matches will be decided with extra times and penalty-kicks if needed.

Poland - Finland May 29th Kielce

some very surprising names in the squad and they definitely do not belong there, but let them be unnamed not to hurt anyone´s feelings.


Gk
Otto Fredrikson, Spartak Naltshik - 4 / 0
Niki Mäenpää, Willem II - 4 / 0

Df
Tuomo Turunen, IFK Göteborg - 1 / 0
Ville Jalasto, Aalesunds FK - 0 / 0
Veli Lampi, FC Aarau - 17 / 0
Markus Heikkinen, SK Rapid Wien - 51 / 0
Niklas Moisander, AZ Alkmaar - 9 / 1
Kalle Parviainen, FC Haka - 0 / 0

Mf & strikers
Tim Sparv, FC Groningen - 6 / 0
Mika Väyrynen, SC Heerenveen - 42 / 3
Roni Porokara, Örebro SK - 12 / 2
Roman Eremenko, FC Dynamo Kyiev - 25 / 0
Jari Litmanen, FC Lahti - 131 / 31
Jonatan Johansson, TPS - 101 / 22
Juha Hakola, Heracles Almelo - 1 / 0
Teemu Pukki, Sevilla FC - 3 /0
Kasper Hämäläinen, Djurgårdens IF - 5 / 0
Mikael Forssell, Hannover 96 - 66 / 19
Paulus Roiha, Åtvidabergs FF - 18 / 4
Joel Perovuo, Djurgårdens IF- 1 / 0

Fortunately it is a friendly.

23.5.2010

Busy weekend behind

Some fine results, some silly results. There were 32 matches at Veikkausliiga, Ykkönen and Kakkonen this weekend and the rounds will be completed by tonight´s three Veikkausliiga matches. I have not yet read through stats, match reports and comments, but

Some very pleasing results came from

MP
FC Espoo
TP-47
KooTeePee
FC Blackbird
Kiisto
Wonderful Kiffen
FC Vaajakoski
City Stars.

From the disappointment department it is easy to find

SoVo,
KäPa,
Ilves,
Viikingit
OPA

And the ones that should probably been taken are

RoPS

I am happy not to have even thought about

GrIFK
Pallohonka
JJK


And that was not even all. Feeling tired after the weekend, but will write-up the remaining two previews for Veikkausliiga Newsletter customers now, the estimations naturally have been sent out already well in advance by Saturday.

JJK - Honka preview

JJK – Honka
No important new Team News.

Hannu Haarala could return to right-back position for Honka, but mf Nicholas Otaru did more than well in replacing him vs. HJK. The most interesting question is the availabilty of Honka striker Hermanni Vuorinen, but Honka have done well without him lately and it is not essential that he is playing and he might be saved for Thursdays cup match vs. HJK. Honka have more than 20 players available and some of them are probably left at home to play with Pallohonka at Kakkonen.

My guess would be Konsta Rasimus, Tapio Heikkilä and Henri Aalto. Ville Koskimaa has been sidelined because of contract negotiations, but he is not missed as Roope Heilala is a more than adequate cover.

JJK have improved the most since last season, biggest impact is the ex-honka assistant coach Kari Martonen, and the new experienced signings Pasoja, Okkonen, Tumanto and Hyyrynen, but naturally I have said all of this many times before.

Kari Martonen is slowly trying to change JJK into a Honka of Jyväskylä, the players are encouraged to keep the ball on their own team, on the ground and going forward with the ball. Basic things really, but many teams with a lesser player material have a tendency of trying to secure a point by giving the ball away too easily and defending like their life depended on it. JJK material is very vulnerable and not quite match up yet with the ambitious hopes of play, but the postive approach should be applauded.

Honka have not yet scored away in their two matches, vs. TPS that was mostly due to unluck, but Jaro did shut them down and Honka head coach Mika Lehkosuo is demanding more balance and control in the team play. Last round´s home win vs. HJK was a positive boost and it means bad news for JJK, but they have positive memories from the league cup final where they held Honka to a 0-0 draw at a neutral ground. Stopping Honka can be done.

JJK home stadium is under renovation and the match takes place at nearby Vaajakoski, the only ”home” match ended in a 0-2 loss vs. TPS and in that match JJK let the class disadvantage show.

It is certain that apart from Honka coach Lehkosuo no one knows Honka better than Kari Martonen, but is the information really enough when the class difference is that big?

Actual asian handicap price limits for Newsletter customers only.

VPS - KuPS preview

Team News VPS: strikers Valtter Laaksonen and Antonio Inutile doubful, important mf Hietaharju will be out for a long time.
Long-term injuries for Tuuri and Pope but they make no difference and would not start in any case.

KuPS have Williams suspended but he is not important as long other strikers are available. Miikka Turunen is a long-term injured, and if gk Vilmunen is sidelined he is well replaced by Joonas Pöntinen who in my opinion shoud be the first choice keeper.

VPS won IFK away, and that is the only good news so far at Vaasa. Another light in the tunnel was the away match at TPS where they stole a point with a 1-1 draw, but the home matches have been poor and also away at Jaro in the important derby they were helpless, and by losing only 3-2 gives a wrong image of the match. Midfield is the weak point, especially going forward, and if Pekka Kainu and Arttu Seppälä are the only options for attack then KuPS should not have too many worries. Another attacking option is Kim Böling, but he is only 18 and has only experience from Kakkonen level and will not a key figure this season. Veikkausliiga website describe him as "extremely promising” but i am not sharing their optimism.

KuPS are on top of the table if they win today. Anyone who saw them got beaten badly in the first round 0-5 at home vs HJK would not easily believe it, but they have played well and won 3 and drawn once ever since, also winning 2 cup matches vs. JJK and JIPPO. KuPS have an away cup match at Savo derby at MP on Thursday, but all eyes should be set on this league match first. KuPS are not that good that they could afford to go to a match without a 100 % concentration.

The KuPS fixture list has been favourable and they have already played four home games however, so it is safe to say that they will not end up anywhere near the top after the season is finished but rather fight for survival along with most of the teams, and with the home advantage this match could turn out to be an even one.

Price limits offered only - and way ahead on time - for Newsletter customers.

IFK Mariehamn - FF Jaro preview

***
IFK Mariehamn – FF Jaro
Updated additional Team News IFK: Ante Simunac and Wilhelm Ingves should be available again but Johan Carlsson is still sidelined. No changes practically.
Team News Jaro: Eremenko jr doubtful, he did not play vs Estonia as planned because of slight injury. Df. Vellamo injured, df Tillman Grove suspended.

IFK are still winless after five rounds. It is understandable for their away fixtures so far, but they have lost both home matches and the visitors VPS and Tamu were hardly top class, so it is naturally causing a worry at the idyllic Mariehamn. ”We had a good match away at Oulu and the defending pieces are setting together”, says head coach Pekka Lyyski, ” we will continue from there and start also scoring goals soon and we are not worrying the slightest”.

Jaro are the most positive team performance-wise, and I am repeating myself here, but Alexei Eremenko Sr. as a head coach has done tremendously good job with limited resources, and the on loan players Zézé and Eremenko Jr are the best duo in the league and make a huge difference, an injury for Eremenko would be a blow. They did almost ok during his two-match suspension, but in the long run Jaro can not give any more handicap to solid and well-defending physical teams like IFK Mariehamn.

IFK have problems in finding a good and reliable goal-scorer, Mikko Paatelainen from TPS last season has only found the net once so far, and the other strikers have not done any better. Sebastian Strandvall from Haka should help a bit in creating chances and has good free-kicks as well, but I am very skeptical about another new signing André Martins, and would not count on him a bit. Petteri Forsell has not started lately, but it probably a disciplinary measure as he should be fit enough and is definitely good enough.

If Eremenko Jr is absent IFK should be able to shut down Zézé and take away the space from him at the small home pitch at Wiklöf Arena, but the confidence at Mariehamn is still low, and going one goal down might have an undesired effect and create panic.

Jaro start having problems with their limited material as Grove is suspended, but fortunately for Jaro Sarajärvi has come to match fitness and will replace him and should not weaken the starting eleven. The material on the bench is not very convincing, and personally as the biggest weakness at Jaro I see the gk Teles.
If I were to make any corrections to the estimation I would go into IFK´s direction a bit, but as they are pretty much walking on thin ice mentally let it be where it is.

Limits and estimations for Newsletter customer only. And also for Ykkönen and Kakkonen. Tonight´s latest pick include among others Kiffen - 0,25.

Inter - TamU preview May 24th

Thank you again to Petri to Turku for this wonderful write-up!

After morale-boosting draw in the local derby against TPS Inter will now face the real bogey team Tampere United. 

There has always been some kind of love and hate relationship between Turku and Tampere and to Inter it has been a real nightmare. These teams have played 23 matches in Veikkausliiga and out of these matches only twice Inter has gotten all the three points and amazing 17 times Tampere has left the pitch as the winners!

Last season Inter led in both encounters, but received red card in both matches and ended up losing the first one in Tampere and drawing at home. Inter got their revenge in a very sweet way by beating TamU in the cup final in October. This title was very valuable for Inter since the team goes straight to the 3rd round in the Europa league. And there are teams like Liverpool and Juventus waiting. By facing a big team Inter would get a huge financial boost since the stadium will be sold out with quite high ticket prices. Even one round would have a big impact for the club´s economy.

As said in the first sentence Inter surely got more self-confidence from the draw against TPS. Inter were 2-0 down but the they managed to score two brilliant goals and to gain a valuable point. But even more important than the point was the performance. Inter totally dominated for long periods and it looked like they might even score the 3rd goal. And one more important point was Timo Furuholm's return to squad. He played only about 15 minutes against TPS but he has been training after that with the team and he is likely to play against TamU. So Inter has almost fully fit squad, only long-term absentees are gk Patrick Bantamoi and midfielder Joni Kauko are still missing.

Visiting team Tampere United had quite lousy pre-season and also the start to the  Veikkausliiga season was a disaster. Two first rounds produced two losses, with no goals scored, against mediocre AC Oulu and JJK. In the next three rounds TamU has gotten 7 points out of 9 possible, but the performances have not been too convincing. Yet TamU seems to have dangerous weapons against Inter. As I've said before Inter's defence isn't very physical and TamU has strong - or at least a tall - striker in Henri Myntti (196 cm) and Aleksei Kangaskolkka, so it's easy to believe that TamU will throw hundreds of long balls to Myntti's head and trying to get pressure into Inter's defence.

Verdict: Inter will control the ball as usual and trying to find the way to break TamU's defence. Inter's midfield played a great match against TPS and especially Finnish international Ari Nyman was very strong in the defensive role and if they continue on the same level it will cause big problems to TamU's midfield which is cleary weaker. And if Timo Furuholm is totally fit Inter will have for the first time a real striker in the starting line-up this season. TamU will, or have to, rely on long balls to Myntti and Kangaskolkka. Also set-pieces are dangerous since Inter doesn't have any power in the air. I suppose Inter are not too afraid even though TamU have been really tough opponent. After the cup victory Inter know they can beat TamU and after promising display against TPS Inter are quite a clear 50 % favourite at home.

European odds price limits; , asians for Newsletter customers for all matches;
2 3,45 4,76

Line-ups, TamU with a change into more defensive style as Haapala replaces Myntti:

Inter

12 David Monsalve
5 Daniel Antunez
7 Ari Nyman
9 Guillano Grot
14 Joni Aho
15 Severi Paajanen
17 Mika Ojala
22 Sami Sanevuori
27 Kennedy Nwankanga
28 Mika Mäkitalo
29 Henri Lehtonen

TamU

1 Mikko Kavén
3 Dema
4 Kristian Kojola
5 Antti Ojanperä
7 Tuomas Haapala
9 Juha Pirinen
11 Aleksei Kangaskolkka
13 Sakari Saarinen
17 Vili Savolainen
21 Jonne Hjelm
30 Jari Niemi

22.5.2010

Kakkonen ABC

Kakkonen
My favourite level of leagues, very few teams constantly perform on the same level or even on both halves of the same match and basically anything can happen. It works as a reserve league for some big clubs, and when there are key men from the top teams they can make a huge difference.
This season there are 3 regional groups of 14 teams each, but the Finnish FA have decided to change the whole system of football leagues in two years time, and instead of all group winners getting a promotion like they used to do they will have to compete against each other and only 1 team wins a promotion.
A bit harsh isn´t it? Especially for the other teams than Ilves who have taken this project of getting promoted very seriously.
Before this season the last 3 of each group were relegated, but there is a plan to change that too, and the two worst 11th placed teams will get relegated too. I guess they just decide it by points earned who the worst 2 are, and it is not too fair either as probably teams from the most even and classy groups will be there.
I copied the regional distribution map at the blog
Kakkonen A is Southeast, Kakkonen B Southwest and Kakkonen C the North.

Distances
There are some long distances for all the C group teams as you can see in the map, In the A group Riverball, WJK and PePo have to cover quite a many km at their away matches and in the group B there are no huge distances, it takes some 3 hours to drive to Pori to face Jazz and MuSa from the Helsinki metropolitan area. And vice versa of course.

Money
There are a few clubs that pay something to the players and Ilves is rather professionally run with high ambitions, but the players are mostly 100 % amateurs and work or study during the day. Or both.

Support
There are no big clubs at Kakkonen, but most of them are the biggest clubs in their rather small cities, or they are from a certain part of a city if they are from Helsinki. The biggest crowds in ”big” Kakkonen matches can be up to a 1000 or so on a good day, but normally we are talking about gates of 100 – 200 football lovers. Friends, mothers and old-timers, at same matches it feels like there are only professional bettors, live reporters and analysts.

Ambitions
Kakkonen can be a good level for a year or two for a young player with talent if he is a regular and given a lot of responsibility, but if you get stuck there there is very little hope that you ever get to play on a higher level. For most of the players it is a good hobby, and the travel is easier than in Ykkönen.

Most teams are not usually looking for a promotion too seriously either, and it has been a common sight at the end of the season that the good teams on the top spot start rotating a lot and losing points. Simply they just do not want to get promoted as it would cost much more money for the club.

Nobody wants to get relegated however, and that battle is the one of interest in most groups, though there are traditionally some teams who get relegated and promoted on a yearly basis, they are not good enough for Kakkonen, but as their regional 3rd group is very poor in quality they get easily promoted again the next year. To name a few, Kultsu, Rakuunat, PePo, Lapuan Virkiä, Korsholm..

Betting
That is a problem even for the locals to find information as this is not very high on the priority in the media. The matches are on offer however in Asia, and you can see from the big market movements that in many cases the bookies do not have any idea how to set the odds. If they start dropping hugely it usually has nothing to do with fixing matches, it just shows that there has been some pressure from those in the know.

The nature of the matches
There are a lot of goals and very few draws as a consequence. Usually the best teams have the lowest goal averages like FC Espoo last year who were out there to win the games, not to score a lot. Roughly the estimate for a draw is about 20 %.

The reserve team status
Pallohonka consists almost fully of 16-18 best players of the country with NT status in the youth teams. They can however use FC Honka players from the Veikkausliiga, and they can make a very big difference. Without them Pallohonka are a bit weak physically and about a midtable team, but with some enforcements they could easily get promoted if they so wished.

Inter use Sinimustat as a reserve team but they have not as big roster as Honka and in general not so good players available for Sinimustat. TPS´s reserve is Åbo IFK, there is a big change as well if they have TPS players or not.

Jaro and JBK are very close, but Jaro do not have too many players to borrow.

KuPS help out PK-37 which is hugely important for PK, and WJK also have many players with KuPS background.

MyPa use FC Kuusankoski as a reserve, and help is also seriously needed in that direction.

JJK will try to help Blackbird at Kakkonen, but it is not going to be easy.

Ilves used to have co-operation with TamU, but they felt exploited as TamU needed a lot of Ilves youngsters,and that agreement has come to an end.


From the Ykkönen clubs
Viikingit have co-operation with PK-KU, and PoPa help MuSa sometimes, but the difference in quality is not that big.

What else? Who is going to win a game?
As you can imagine there are several factors here which make it rather useless to use the table as a tool to predict games in this league.
A lot of games have derby flavour which always even up things, mid week long away matches are difficult, the key players from top league help a lot, there is another thing which effects some teams a lot, the army service which every one is obliged to do.. and there is no news, no media.
I personally see a lot Kakkonen matches, I know the teams in my area well. I know other people who follow it for professional and betting reasons, and we do exchange ideas. Here comes the advantage and competitive edge, by sitting by the pitch in rain watching poor football and discussing poor football with others!

There are no certain winners here either. There will be wins and losses by big margins. There will be everything, and there is a lot of value to be taken.

Quick ranks for possible top and bottom teams in each group;

A Gnistan, City Stars ---------------- Futura, Atlantis, Kuusankoski, Vantaa, PePo
B Ilves --------------------------------- Sinimustat, MuSa, BK-46
C SJK, VIFK, Kiisto -----------------JBK, Blackbird, KajHa, Korsholm

I am sure we end up discussing these a lot more during the summer! SoVo price has dropped some 10 % now to -0,25 @ 1.88 and at least most of the value has been eaten up, but there will be a lot more betting opportunities during the season.

Enjoy your day,



21.5.2010

Kakkonen Friday review

Group A                                

HIFK - Atlantis 1-1 (1-0)  
Okkonen 18    Cassiano 95
HIFK were better in the first half, but did not 
really try to shoot towards unexperienced Atlantis 
keeper. Atlantis did start some nice counters but 
the decisive passes were poor. Nice shot 
from 25 metres at 95th min shut the HIFK 
supporters completely. Fair result, 
neither team deserved three points. 
 
 
 
AC Vantaa   - LPS          1-1 (0-1)    
LPS scored from a penalty, and both teams
got a red card on the 2nd half.
LPS do not like artificial pitches, this 
was the last match on such ground. 
 
LOHKO B                                

FC Jazz-j - ÅIFK 1-1 (0-1)
 Injury-riddled Jazz  fought a point.
                                           
Sinimustat - KaaPo 2-2 (2-1)
Sinimustat goals by young Heljander from 
penalty and Inter df Nikkari. KaaPo´s goals 
by Heimo as usual and Sarparanta.                                      

LOHKO C

JBK - FC OPA 2-2 (1-2) 
 Mistakes by JBK gk cost perhaps some 
points, but mistakes are a feature on 
this level of football. There were chances
 even for more goals.  

Haka - Oulu updated lineups & preview

FT 2-0, 
first goal from a Nam free-kick, second by Santala. First goal from open play this season, already in the 6th game. Haka top the table!


Haka
1 Janne Korhonen
2 Regillio Nooitmeer
3 Toni Kuivasto
5 Kalle Parviainen
10 Xhevdet Gela
11 Antti Hynynen
13 Ben Traore
15 Jaakko Juuti
22 Jarno Mattila
24 Kyuong Ik Nam
32 Jukka Santala
AC Oulu
22 Dennys Rodrigues
2 Janne Hietanen
3 Niko Kukka
4 Juho Meriläinen
7 Dominic Yobe
10 Donewell Yobe
13 Mika Nurmela
14 Joonas Pennanen
16 Juha Majava
18 Jarkko Hurme
20 Jean Fridolin Ngambe Ngambe

Haka – AC Oulu
Haka played vs. TamU on Monday´s free stream match, and if you watched you probably did not see many goal chances from Haka, as their building of play usually dies right after the half-way line. All goals so far have been from freekicks and corners, all 7 so far. It is a good number for set pieces and earns a bit of respect, but 0 goals after 450 minutes of open play is not.

The problem is in the player material and in the coach. Of all new recruits for this season only Nam an Kuivasto have established themselves and can be rated as a good standard Veikkausliiga players, Nooitmeer as a right back is also doing a good job.

Santala, Osei, Traore and Gela could be be replaced by any Ykkönen players and no one would notice the difference, and from their own reserves Multanen, Juuti, Yllaconza, Chavez and Salonen no deserves a place in the top league. Not now, perhaps not ever.

So what do have left? An excellent goal-keeper in Janne Korhonen who is responsible for most points earned so far.

Defence – line Mattila-Kuivasto-Parviainen-Nooitmeer is ok, though I see Parviainen as a big hazard risk, but he has been effective in fron tof the goal so far this season with 3 goals scored.

Midfield? Here the problems start and it is difficult if not impossible to form a proper midfield with the players available. Kauppila is good in defencing role, and then it is quiet in all the other roles. There is no playmaker. There are no wingers. There is no one to keep the ball or pass the ball to the strikers.

Vs. TamU the midfield was about Hynynen-Gela-Kauppila-Osei, and they lost the mf battle to TamU big time.

Attacking department is very weak too, Nam is industrious and has good free-kicks, but Ikävalko, Santala and Multanen would only start from the bench in any other team in the league. Of course their task is more difficult when they do not even get the ball from the midfield.

Yet, with a win vs. TamU last Monday Haka would top the table.. so they have seriously had luck and gk Korhonen on their side.

Oulu look a bit tired after a long pre-season and good early results. In the league they have only the first round win vs. TamU, and they were kicked out of the cup as well away at VPS. The surprise moment has been used up, they rely quite heavily on their home ground and all of a sudden they have started to look like a Ykkönen side again. The heavy pressure and aggressive style of play has vanished, and the player material is thin for the league. Last round they did give debut to a 16-year old talent in the midfield Joni Mäkelä, who is talented but naturally weak physically.

The verdict?

Despite their shortcomings Haka are 0,5 – 1 classes above Oulu, and sooner or later they will also start scoring from open play. Even a scrappy free-kick goal might be enough for a win here as Oulu have not scored in their latest two games, and did not even get real chances at home vs. MIFK last round. And with the bone-breaker defenders like Jarkko Hurme there should be enough free-kicks from 25 metres.

Price limits at the round preview sheet, for 1x2 they are 1.96 – 3,57 – 4.76, and at least Haka prices seem to be too low in the markets at least right now.

There is a chance that I will need to go Tallinn tomorrow for the match and it might be change the schedules a bit, but if that happens there will earlier previews for the Saturday´s matches and business as usual on Sunday. Good luck and have a nice day!

Latest Kakkonen updates for Friday

Sinimustat - KaaPo

Sinimusta get these from Inter;
Eemeli Reponen gk , Daniel Osinachi striker, Felix Åkerlund mf , Ville Nikkari df, Jan-Erik Heljander striker and  Kalle Kauppi mf. They should be of much help, Reponen is a good gk, Nikkari is a regular starter at Inter and Osinachi is a professional. The rest are young and promising.

It has already been noticed on the market, Sinimustat now -0,25 @ 1.76. The reports from Turku have not been praising Sinimustat or Åbo IFK this season.

No news from KaaPo camp, but they know Sinimustat really well and can not see this as a sure home win and the best prices are already gone. This is a derby at Turku area.


AC Vantaa - LPS

Vantaa have had injury worries in the early season and in the pre-season, and according to the match reports they got really tired on the 2nd half vs. Atlantis. Perhaps something to have in mind if you like to take live bets. LPS have best squad available, 1-2 questionmarks. AC Vantaa share the same home stadium with PK-35 and it is artificial pitch. Helsinki metropolitan area derby.


Jazz - Åbo IFK

No news about TPS guys, but of course they have got some. Jazz have not played well because of injuries so far, and it is partly to blame the high odds.

JBK - OPA 

No news since last mail.

20.5.2010

HIFK - Atlantis at Kakkonen 21st May 2010


HIFK – Atlantis

The teams share the same stadium and have red shirts but there is exactly nothing else in common with them.

HIFK is a traditional and a big club with glorious history, Atlantis is the result of a fusion, bankrupties, suspect of match fixing, foreign players and background players and have no roots and no fans whereas HIFK fan base is definitely strongest of all lower league teams, even stronger than most League clubs.

HIFK´s most known figure last season was the controversial Estonian coach Gert Remmel, who is now assisting Mika Lehkosuo at Honka. The current HIFK coach Jani Honkavaara has a partly changed player material since last year, but Atlantis is 100 % compared to the 2009 Atlantis at Ykkönen.

Atlantis is really a story of their own, last season they started with mostly local lads, but as there was no success and an Lithuanian club had been banned from their own league there were a teamful of good quality players at disposal, and Atlantis took them! The players they already had were not overwhelmingly happy about it.

The semi-lithuanian Atlantis got relegated even though the performances got better round by round, and 2010 Atlantis started with new faces. New players, mostly from the academy, and an Estonian coach Aavo Sarap. The pre-season was disastreous, and not surprisingly the team changed again just before the season. The new manager Bola has his roots in Nigeria, but has been in Finland for a long time and knows a lot of players, and he has invited them now to Atlantis. This Atlantis is almost 100 % african.

They look like a mid-table Kakkonen team at the moment, but what happens next week?

Because of several reasons local bookie Veikkaus do not offer Atlantis matches at all.

Finland - Norway U21 2.6.2010 17.30 CET

At Leppävaara.

To be updated.

The line-up last time at Czech;

Lukas Hradecky, Esbjerg fB
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK > 46. Ville Nikkari, FC Inter
Paulus Arajuuri, FF Kalmar (c) > 46. Markus Joenmäki, Haka
Jani Tanska, VPS
Henri Aalto, FC Honka
Toni Kolehmainen, TPS > 46. Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka
Sebastian Mannström, FF Jaro
Sakari Mattila, Ascoli Calcio > 73. Jani Virtanen, TPS
Mika Ojala, FC Inter
Jonne Hjelm, Tampere United > 46. Joni Kauko, FC Inter (var.)
Akseli Pelvas, HJK > 60. Niko Ikävalko, Haka

Finland - Switzerland U16 25th & 27th May 2010

SUI are the World Champions!

U16 (1.1.1994)
Ti 25.5. klo 17.30 Suomi-Sveitsi, Kaarinan keskuskenttä CET
To 27.5. klo 17.00 Suomi-Sveitsi, Hyvinkään Urheilupuisto CET



Valitut pelaajat:
Joose Koskiranta, FC Midtjylland
Dániel Kollár, FC Honka
Arttu Uotila, MP
Dani Hatakka, FC Honka
Ville Rannikko, TPS
Joel Mero, FC Reipas
Jere Uronen, TPS
Lassi Niemi, TPV
Jaakko Hietikko, FC Honka
Matias Louanto, FC Inter
Santeri Hirvonen, PK-35
Janne Kuhmonen, JJK
Matti Klinga, FC Reipas
Simon Skrabb, FF Jaro
Matias Ojala, Tervarit
Youness Rahimi, HJK
Olli Tynkkynen, FC Reipas
Topi Järvinen, JJK

Is avoiding injuries the key to success?

Yes it is, according to professor Jan Ekstrand. If you have only 80 % of your players available there it is far less likely to do well compared to teams with 90 % health situation.

The full story in the link below.

http://www.sydsvenskan.se/sport/fotboll/article839562/Skadefri-trupp-lika-med-framgang.html

Ykkönen and Kakkonen this weekend

Full rounds.





1 x 2
Sat OPS Hämeenlinna


Sat TPV KPV



MP Kemi



Viikingit JIPPO



KooTeePee Klubi04



RoPS Vantaa



Espoo PoPa


























Fri IFK Atlantis


Fri Vantaa LPS



Riverball City Stars



Kuusankoski PK-KU



Kiffen WJK



Gnistan PePo



Futura KäPa















Sinimustat KaaPo



Jazz Åbo IFK



BK-46 MuSa



SalPa Ilves



Pallohonka LoPa



SoVo EIF



Pallo-Iirot GrIFK















JBK OPA



TP-47 PK-35



Vaajakoski Korsholm



VIFK Santa Claus



YPA GBK



SJK Kiisto



KajHa Blackbird