Veikkausliiga: Inter Turku - FC Honka preview

This morning I re-checked if there was value to me to find in last night´s match RoPS vs HJK, it bothered me though I did not bet a single euro on that. My numbers show that had I found it on time there was a minimal value in RoPS +1, but it was very quickly eaten up so now I can continue with today´s top clash peace in mind.


Back to Inter - Honka. Who is the favourite here, and the underdog? In case you do not want to read the whole thing below I can tell you - in strict confidence of course - that Honka will win 0-1.

Is one goal enough to decide who is better now? Last season both matches were drawn, and last season these two were the best in the league. They also played a dress rehearsal before the season and Honka humbled Inter by making 10 substitutions in the half-time, and yet Inter could not even challenge the b-team of Honka youngsters.

There has been a clear tendency in Inter´s matches this season. Only of the teams scores, which leads also easily to the conclusion that the first goal decides.

For Honka scoring first has been no problem, but keeping the lead has been another matter, and the title-winning favourite has struggled to kill the games. In a league of only 26 rounds getting a draw almost equals to losing. Three points are vital.

Surely, looking at the table and keeping in mind that Inter is the reigning champion, and with the home advantage in football-mad gloryhunting City of Turku one might easily think that Inter is the favourite tonight.

It is not.

Not in my papers anyway. Honka has recently found the form the already had in the pre-season (La Manga cup winners in February 2009!) and Inter are struggling in front of the goal, in fact in front of both goals as the new recruits have not yet matched the outstanding talents of Chatto and Hooiveld who left to Sweden.

Honka has pretty much the best line-up available, (except Weckström) all they need to do now is to decide which is it, there are more than 20 players available. Almost all of them are young, hungry, talented.

Inter is missing Aho & Ramirez and the replacements are not awful by any means, not just that good.

Another thing to bear in mind; this might be the last match in Finland for several U21 - players who are off to Sweden soon for the EURO 2009. If they succeed there will be several takers from Scandinavian leagues.

The players in the U21-squad from these two are

Joni Aho and Mika Ojala from Inter,
Tuomo Turunen, Nicholas Otaru, Jussi Vasara and Aleksandr Kokko from FC Honka.


Likely line-up Inter;

Bantamoi-/Lehtonen-Verino-Nyman-Nikkari/-Kennedy-Paajanen-Kauko-Ojala/Furuholm-Grot.

FC Honka tonight:

Peltonen/Turunen-Hakanpää-Heilala-Aalto/Otaru-Vasara-Perovuo-Savage/Vuorinen-Puustinen.




Honka is the one wagging his tail tonight and Inter will be left waiting for better times. In case the prediction of FT 0-1 is not enough for you please study the numbers below to help you with a right betting decision.





1x2 Estimation % 34.0% - 32.0% - 34.0% (2.94 - 3.12 - 2.94)

Betfair Lay FC Inter 2.70

Ladbrokes X 3.20

Moneyline 50.0% - 50.0% (2.00 - 2.00)
1x 66.0% (1.52)
x2 66.0% (1.52)
12 68.0% (1.47)


FC Inter -0.5 : Honka +0.5 34.0% - 66.0% (2.94 - 1.52)
FC Inter -1.5 : Honka +1.5 13.2% - 86.8% (7.55 - 1.15)
FC Inter +0.5 : Honka -0.5 66.0% - 34.0% (1.52 - 2.94)
FC Inter +1.5 : Honka -1.5 86.8% - 13.2% (1.15 - 7.55)

FC Inter -1.5 : Honka +1.5 13.2% - 86.8% (7.55 - 1.15)
FC Inter -1.25: Honka +1.25 15.0% - 85.0% (6.67 - 1.18)
FC Inter -1.0 : Honka +1.0 16.7% - 83.3% (5.98 - 1.20)
FC Inter -0.75: Honka +0.75 25.4% - 74.6% (3.94 - 1.34)
FC Inter -0.5 : Honka +0.5 34.0% - 66.0% (2.94 - 1.52)
FC Inter -0.25: Honka +0.25 42.0% - 58.0% (2.38 - 1.72)
FC Inter 0.0 : Honka 0.0 50.0% - 50.0% (2.00 - 2.00)

Pinnacle Honka 2.09, SBOBET Honka 2.12
FC Inter 0.25 : Honka 0.25 58.0% - 42.0% (1.72 - 2.38)
FC Inter 0.5 : Honka -0.5 66.0% - 34.0% (1.52 - 2.94)
FC Inter 0.75 : Honka -0.75 74.6% - 25.4% (1.34 - 3.94)
FC Inter 1.0 : Honka -1.0 83.3% - 16.7% (1.20 - 5.98)
FC Inter 1.25 : Honka -1.25 85.0% - 15.0% (1.18 - 6.67)
FC Inter 1.5 : Honka -1.5 86.8% - 13.2% (1.15 - 7.55)


Goals

0.5 over 86.9% (1.15) under 13.1% (7.64)
1.5 over 62.0% (1.61) under 38.0% (2.63)

Betfair U 1.5 3.40

2.5 over 34.4% (2.90) under 65.6% (1.52)

Betfair Under 2.5 1.81

3.5 over 16.1% (6.22) under 83.9% (1.19)

Betfair Under 3.5 1.31

4.5 over 6.1% (16.45) under 93.9% (1.06)

Moneyline

1 o 82.6% (1.21) u 17.4% (5.74)
2 o 47.5% (2.11) u 52.5% (1.90)
3 o 19.7% (5.08) u 80.3% (1.25)
4 o 6.8% (14.81) u 93.2% (1.07)

Did you make it this far? I see my blog is only attracting quality people!

All eyes are in Finland soon

as the leagues close for the summer in rest of the Europe. Tonight the hottest pick is probably Klubi 04, who are getting 5 players from the 1st team HJK for the clash against the leaders AC Oulu.

I am convinced that the price will drop a lot, not that sure that home team is going to win.

A live betting will take place and I will be a lot wiser when the match kicks off at 17.30 CET.

Perhaps I am losing some advantage here not betting and even lose a chance for an arbitrage.. that is the risk I am taking. If the match is as lively that I expect it to be I will take totals live. Overs.

The other Ykkönen match is TPV against newcomers PoPa in Tampere, and there are several matches in Kakkonen, but I will take a closer look at Kakkonen next week when the local Premier league takes an early and undeserved summer break.

Price changes in Ykkönen

There have a couple of strange signs lately. Odds going up and down lately, and in the last two cases it has been the unusual suspect to go down.

Today it was KooTeePee, a team that is poor and has hardly scored and neither will in the near future cause it just is not possible with these players.

On weekend it was Tornio who was at the end backed as a favourite away! Tornio is the weakest away team in the history..

Well, it is not my money. Lose it if you want to. Actually it is quite stylish to back the shittiest teams in the division, you make sure you get noticed too.

And thanks for better odds too, just have to remember not to make any early bets now for some time as you people are being so generous!

Euro U21 2009 Sweden - Is Roman in the team or Not?

Finland U21 head coach Markku Kanerva named last night 22 out 23 possible players into Euro2009 U21-tournament in Sweden this summer.

I admit, the selection process must not have been easy as there are only a few certain names, here is the almost final list.

Goalkeepers
Anssi Jaakkola, V.F. Colligiana (13.03.1987) - 8 / 0
Lukas Hradecky, Esbjerg fB (24.11.1989) - 0 / 0
Jukka Lehtovaara, TPS (15.03.1988) - 2 / 0

Defenders
Jukka Raitala, HJK (15.09.1988) - 15 / 0
Joni Aho, FC Inter (12.04.1986) - 10 / 0
Ville Jalasto, Aalesund FK (19.04.1986) - 15 / 1
Jonas Portin, FF Jaro (30.09.1986) - 17 / 0
Joona Toivio, FC Stormvogels Telstar (10.03.1988) - 2 / 0
Tuomo Turunen, FC Honka (30.08.1987) - 15 / 1
Pyry Kärkkäinen, HJK (10.11.1986) - 10 / 0

Midfielders
Tim Sparv, Halmstads BK (20.02.1987) - 15 / 4
Mehmet Hetemaj, Thrasivoulos Fylis (08.12.1987) - 15 / 2
Juha Hakola, Heracles Almelo (27.10.1987) - 8 / 0
Kasper Hämäläinen, TPS (08.08.1986) 17 / 1
Mika Ojala, FC Inter (21.06.1988) - 9 / 1
Nicholas Otaru, FC Honka (15.07.1986) - 3 / 1
Perparim Hetemaj, AEK Athens (12.12.1986) - 12 / 3
Jussi Vasara, FC Honka (14.05.1987) - 2 / 2

Strikers
Berat Sadik, DSC Arminia Bielefeld (14.09.1986) - 11 / 2
Teemu Pukki, FC Sevilla (29.03.1990) - 0 / 0
Jarno Parikka, HJK (21.07.1986) - 17 / 2
Aleksandr Kokko, FC Honka (04.06.1987) - 4 / 0

And the 23rd spot is reserved - or is it? - to Roman Eremenko from Dynamo Kiev, he is a proven Finland senior national team player, and somehow Kanerva is making this process a far more difficult than it should be. He is best of the lot, in-form and motivated and this tournament is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Finland. Kanerva, old pumpkinhead, wake up and name him now!


Edit: Fucking Hell! He chose Petri Viljanen from Haka instead! Kanerva, you are not a good manager, just lucky so far but this was a huge mistake. Enormous.

Good luck for the team though.

Preview HJK - FC Lahti 25.5.09 Finnair Stadium

Actually I will wait until I see the line-ups. This game is on TV and I will be here before kick-off.

At this stage HJK is something like 50-55 % favourite to win, but there are questionmarks in the air and I am tempted to bet against them.

Johannes Westö in the opening line - up! It has been expected, but this is too big game from the start. Sorry JW and good luck in the future.

Draw : 1-1. Edit: ft 1-o.



Perhaps NFN is quicker to preview? Check it out!

Some bets for today 24.5.09 Finland

A couple of earlies too, according to rankings and performances.

Veikkausliiga & Ykkönen

Jaro - MyPa Jaro 0.0 @ 2.08 ft: 3-0
Tamu - KuPS Tamu -1.5 @ 2.13 ft : 2-0
TPS - MIFK MIFK + 0.5 @ 1.93 ft : 0-0

PK35-Kiisto Pk35 -1 @ 1.84 ft : 2-0
TPV - Tornio TPV - 0.5 @ 2.07--> 2.28! ft : 2-0

Edit: A good day as all bets are home safe. I have seen worse too, no reason to get excited.

TPV odds are skyrocketing, wondering why, but unless there is nothing alarming I will take it live soon.

Not really useful info here, just for the record.

As usually, all bets to SBOBET.

Veikkausliiga round x

I have lost count. Some teams have played 5 rounds, others 8.

In general this is a livebet round for me, with several agents at the stadia and live radio and internet coverage. Tomorrow´s game is on TV, but also at the stadium nearby and I will perhaps watch and bet it really live.


Su 24.05. 18.30 VPS - RoPS

A very big game for VPS. The former manager Kärkkäinen found it wiser pack it a day and left the sports manager Juha Reini to swim in the shit. What do they say about rats and ships?

VPS had high hopes (based on what?) but already now they have also themselves realized that they are fighting relegation, nothing else.

The material is poo(r) especially in the striker´s department and apparently also the coaching has been inadequate and the poor players are in poor condition.

They should not be big favourites against anyone, tonight´s anyone is RoPS.

Away win.



Su 24.05. 18.30 FF Jaro - MyPa

I can not write MyPa as MYPA, it hurts my eyes and mind. That is , however, how the wise men from Kouvola have decided it should be written. Modern indeed! Waves!!

That alone should be enough to despise the away team, but they have managed to create some skill and balance into the team and personally I am slightly surprised. There are not that many quality players apart from Ady and Ilari Äijälä, but the performances have been solid and in lack of real fire-power also defense-minded.

Jaro is one my favourites in the mid-table area when they have all the players available. I am not yet quite sure about the injuries and staff but I will update before kick-off.

Home win.


Su 24.05. 18.30 TPS - IFK Mariehamn

This was one of the games which had a lot of value. TPS has sucked at home and MIFK has played surprisingly well with their brand new team built out of foreign material.

The value has been eaten up though, and I guess this is another miserable encounter at Veritas.

1-1 draw.

Su 24.05. 18.30 TamU - KuPS

I know it is hard for you non-finnish football fans to realize how bad some of the teams are here. The bottom-4 of KuPS, RoPS, VPS and JJK are in danger not to win any away games this season, not even against themselves. The odds on TamU are hardly very tempting, but either take that or lose your money. Or why not go and take a pint and enjoy life?

KuPS is so prone to mistakes all over the pitch that the opponent can just lay back and watch KuPS do it themselves, and TamU showed some positive signs whey they outplayed Honka last round.

Home win.

I am confident that NFN will publish their preview sooner than later, but why wait, take a look at their Tippaligaen preview first!


Mo 25.05. 19.00 HJK - FC Lahti (UTV)

JJK - Honka

The Veikkausliiga schedule is bad, it is mad and unmanageable.

I knew there was JJK - Honka to be played this round, but not that kick-off is now!

Maniacs. Bollocks.

The good thing is that is not really worth a bet. Honka is a favourite, JJK has yet to win a game.

Veikkausliiga live! Inter Turku vs Haka

There is a lot to be said about tonight´s clash at Turku, but not until the match starts.

Kick-off is at 5.00 CET and as this game is not televised NFN has decided to comment it live on their Finnish football pages.

It will be full of excitement and the best part is that I do not yet have to make up my mind what to predict as I can take it live!

It might be interesting to provide live bets as well, let us see if it can be worked out properly.

My pre-game prediction is Haka not to score. Hasta la vista!

International U17 tournament in Helsinki 2009

Edit: Final Standings; 3 best teams were above the rest,
1 Brøndby IF (DK)
2 Zenit St. Petersburg (RU)
3 Olympique de Marseille (FR)
4 Slavia Praha (CZ)
5 Ado den Haag (NL)
6 FC Honka (FI)
7 HJK (FI)
8 Djurgården (SE)


There were some outstanding players, specially in the best teams. I have to clear my notes and put some info here for future reference.

And the info is here, all scouts out there, sharpen you pens;

Best players of the tournament not in order;

Thomas Savino (1992) Marseille 11. Striker.
Stanislav Murikhin (92) Zenit 10. Striker.
Denis Vikhrov (92) Zenit 15. Half-back.
Jop Verhagen (92) Ado Den Haag 7. Striker.
Adil Tihouna (92) Ado 11. Striker.
André Ntamboue (92) Ado 17. Striker.
Astrit Kabashi (93) Honka 13. Defender.
Valmir Seferi ( 93) Honka 14. Midfielder
Tim Väyrynen (93) Honka 15. Striker.

And the brightest star of them all from Denmark (perhaps with love too?)

Jannick Vestergaard (92) Brøndby 3. Defender.

Stylish, always in control, loves to tackle, pass and score. Good luck Jannick, though you do not seem to need it any after all this talent and obvious hard work on the training pitch!












After the first round of games my ranking is as below;

Marseille
Zenit
Brondby
Ado Den Haag
Honka
Slavia Praha
HJK
Djurgården

The game speed of Marseille is way too much to everyone else, maybe Zenit can challenge them with well - organized team plan?

There are match videos on the homepage.
Now it is time to go back to the pitch too se future stars in action!

Thursday - a live betting day

There are so many games today starting 11.30 CET that there is no time for analysis, I will be at the stadium instead taking bets via mobile phone.

Good luck everyone whatever you are doing today!

So far my team has taken these bets today;

HJK Women - Åland United -------> Åland + 0.5 @ 1.82 ft 1-3

Åland look like the title winners at this point, but the season has hardly even started.


KooTeePee - KPV --------> KPV ml at 0-0 @ 2.13

Virkiä - Norrvalla FF ----> Norrvalla -1 @ 1.92 at 0-2 and Virkiä gk red carded.

There may be more.

There is at least one more ; Kemi Ps @ 1.79 moneyline.

Finland Ykkönen and Kakkonen

3 picks from lower leagues, Ykkönen and Kakkonen.

At the moment all the underdog - picks from Veikkausliiga have looked
like very desperate ones, and it looks like that that this year the
gap between top & bottom - 3 is even wider than before, so better be
careful with those unless there are dramatic team news.

These are basically based on team news and the pre-season ranking,
look like value to me but Kakkonen players are full-time amateurs.

Honka Espoo 2 + 0,5 @ 1,94 - Kakkonen ft : 3-2. Pallohonka lost 0-2 on the second half and winner was scored 90 min. Nice..

Blackbird + 1,25 @ 1.92 - Kakkonen ft : 5-1. The help received from JJK was not enough for poor Blackbird

TPV + 0,25 @ 2,16 - Ykkönen ft: 1-1. As tight as expected.

Edit: Maybe these picks are not winners but at least the odds have dropped at Sbobet.

TPV now 1,92, Blackbird 1,78. Honka has stayed, perhaps it was ok in the beginning? One hour till kick-off, I am off to watch a game.

At the end the handicap of TPV dropped from 0.25 to 0.50. Sometimes there is a reason for that, but this seemed to be another example of following someone who is following someone. Nothing special in the line-ups, nor on the pitch. 1-1 FT.

Off to Kuopio

for a couple of days. Back Wednesday. There is a pending KuPS handicap bet waiting.

Edit : FT 2-0 and KuPs did not have any goal scoring chances. Neither did really Inter, but a defensive mistake by former Inter-striker Miikka Ilo was the decisive factor last night.

KuPS home stadion Väinölänniemi is very very idyllic, but old school and will soon be abandoned for ever.

Some early Veikkausliiga bets 16-18.5.2009 some from Ykkönen

No stories this time, too busy with the numbers now.

One more quick bet with rosen price tag;

Hämeenlinna - PS Kemi Kings + 0,5 @ 2.16

There is no real reason for Kemi odds going up, so I take it now when it is worth the trouble.

Edit: I take Viikingit - 0,25 @ 1.92 too when they are away at TPV. Edit: FT 1-0.

Another bet for Ykkönen but this league is desperately difficult to predict. 17.5.09 Atlantis -05 @ 2.05 against Jippo. Atlantis is one of many local teams for me, and the only one with no supporter culture at all. There are a couple of single mums on wearing Atlantis shirts selling coffee, but that is it. Atlantis is a very multicultural-oriented team and not really a team going down. Bankrupt maybe..


17.5. JJK - HJK HJK -0,75 1,92 --> 1.96
18.5. KuPS - Inter KuPS + 0,75 1,90
17.5. Haka - RoPS RoPS + 1 1,95

17.5. MIFK - MyPa is worth two bets;
MIFK 0.0 @ 1,92
u 2,25 @ 1,83

Funny enough, HJK price was too big already when opened at Sbobet and it has risen 0.04 pts overnight.

Do not get me wrong, I am not looking at the table and the results only but personal pre-season rankings, performances and player material at hand and believe me, in comparison JJK does not come even close in any department.

The only reason supporting JJK is their home pitch which is still in awful condition and helps slightly to kill the game as HJK are used to their own artificial grass, but I can not see it will help too much.

The odds for outright win for HJK are about right, so the best choice is handicap.

After these 6 bets my ROI will be between 90 - 120 %. Very big gap, which tells in the first glance that there have been only a handful of picks so far in this record, starting from April 2009 and consisting only of picks of Finnish leagues and all odds are from Sbobet.

All picks and the follow-up are published monthly.

Edit: this was not the best of rounds.

JJK-HJK 1-1
Haka-RoPS 3-1
Atlantis lost 0-2
Hämeenlinna won 3-1, Kemi PS was missing one key defender -- > reason for odds?
MIFK-MyPa 0-0 as expected
.

Kakkonen preview 15-17.5.2009

There are a lot of games, but unless I get some serious and reliable info I will not bet, neither write any previews.

There are so many teams that rely heavily on key players from teams from better leagues but the info is difficult to get into your hands, the names are rarely published on any official websites.

Tonight Friday 15th there are three games and I will probably go and and analyze Kiffen live, and take some live bets. Gnistan comes only from some 5 km away.

LOHKO A

My Pick is Gnistan - 0.75 @ 2.00 Now I have to run to the stadion!

Edit; FT 1-0. I only watched the first half but then thought having seen enough came home to cook dinner. Unfortunately and for reasons beyond my understanding Kiffen has not only scored but also went on to win the game.



FC Kiffen - Gnistan 18.30


LOHKO B

FC Jazz-j - KaaPo 18.30
Ilves - EIF 19.00

Odds from Sbobet, something to think about.


Kiffen Helsinki
Gnistan Helsinki 0.5-1 1.880 2.000

Goals 2.5-3 1.980 1.880

Jazz Pori Juniorit
Kaarinan Pojat 0.5-1 1.830 2.050

Goals 2.50 1.930 1.930

Ilves Tampere
Ekenas IF 1-1.5 2.000 1.880

Goals 3.0 1.980 1.880

Veikkausliiga round 6 or so roundup

Inter 6 4 1 1 7-3 13
HJK 6 3 2 1 12-6 11
Haka 6 3 2 1 6-4 11
FC Lahti 5 2 3 0 9-5 9
MYPA 6 2 3 1 8-5 9
Honka 6 1 5 0 11-8 8
IFK Mariehamn 5 2 2 1 7-4 8
Jaro 5 2 2 1 6-4 8
TPS 6 1 3 2 6-7 6
KuPS 5 1 1 3 4-10 4
JJK 4 0 3 1 1-3 3
Tampere U 5 1 0 4 2-9 3
RoPS 4 0 2 2 2-7 2
VPS 5 0 1 4 3-9 1

There is no need to try and invent the wheel again, is there? Take a look at NFN for more background info.


HJK - Honka 1-1 (0-0)
Bah 54 Turunen 90
(Roiha 90 red card) Att: 4527

A lively game and the draw is justified. Corners 8-8, shots 7-11.

Inter - TPS 2-0 (0-0)
Nwanganga 74
Furuholm 75 Att: 5744

Inter deserved to win. Corners 4-2, shots 11-5.


Haka - TamU 1-0 (0-0)
Innanen 73 (Kangaskolkka 90 red card)
Att: 2367

The goal was scored Innanen´s by gluteus maximus. Corners 6-8, shots 14-15.


MYPA - FC Lahti 2-2 (2-1)
Huttunen 29 Shala 36 56
Ady 45 rp Att: 1558

Lahti midfielder Veltheim broke his foot badly and his career might be over. Shala missed a late minute hat trick. Corners 4-4, shots 6-7.

JJK - RoPS 1-1 (0-1)
Lahtinen 84 Saileti 38
Att: 2421

First Veikkausliiga goal ever for poor JJK. Corners 3-2, shots 9-15.

Veikkausliiga preview 14.5.2009

There will some thoughts and probably picks as well later today afternoon, busy with something else before that. There is a preview available at NFN, but I seem to disagree with some of the picks.

Picks first, reasoning later. All odds from Sbobet.com

Haka - Tamu no bets yet

I see TamU as a lot better team than Haka, but the problems outside the pitch may have affected their performances just enough that backing them does not feel too tempting now.

HJK - Honka (40-30-30) Honka + 0.5 @ 1.81

This is by far the most interesting match of the round. Two biggest favourites meet and there is no home advantage as Honka is also using Finnair Stadium as their home arena until their own pitch gets renovated by mid-sommer.

They key player if this game is HJK midfielder Ville Taulo who comes in for the first time this season to replace injured captain Tuomas Haapala who will be sidelined for some 4-8 weeks. Taulo is actually much better player in the attack, but it is his defensive qualities that raise questions and that will change the balance of HJK midfield. If Honka can challenge him properly the route towards goal, especially from the right flank where Hauhia and Kärkkäinen will struggle, is much more open.

I am tempted to try Honka here, and the handicap + 0.50 is worth a bet @ 1.81.


Inter - TPS TPS 0.0 @ 2.23

This is a so called derby round and the home advantage is less
significant than normally. TPS has showed some signs of recovery
lately and they have a lot to revenge from last season´s beatings by
Inter. Inter has weakened since last season a lot and is hardly worth being a favourite in this challenging clash.


MyPa - Lahti Lahti + 0.50 @ 1.76

MyPa surprised me last time around at home against HJK - I was at the
stadium myself, and saw also Honka-MyPa live - but I can hardly imagine the almost retired nightclubber Ady performing superbly another night and controlling the midfield, specially whenLahti has a weapon against him in Vanninen. Without Ady MyPa was very very poor against Honka.


JJK - RoPS RoPS + 0.50 @ 1.92


JJK has not yet scored even once and RoPs is a class or two above their hosts. So far RoPS has had 3 penalties this season in the 3 games, and missed all 3 of them! They can create goal chances however
and tonight their luck will turn.

The odds seem the be drifting at the moment, which is not that unusual in games where RoPS is involved but probably there is nothing dodgy going on this time.

None of the games is televised according to my knowledge, I am off to Finnair Stadium to freeze.

VPS - FF Jaro preview 13.5.2009 Veikkausliiga

This would be one of the dullest encounters in the League if it was not a derby. VPS has been the least gentle team to the eye for years with their disgusting style of play which lead to 0-0 eight times out of 26 last season. Partly this is just a reflection of reality as they have not had any quality players in the midfield neither in the attack.

Jaro is a kind of little brother to them, but with a good manager they have succeeded to create a football team with a shoestring budget.

Today however both teams have so many players injured that I do not want to try to analyze any further but go to horse races instead.

Very low goal expectactions, VPS is very slightly favourite for this game. 37-31-32 for 1x2.

My pick is Jaro 0 @ 2.40 Sbobet
0-0 at 8.5 Sbobet
Under 2.0 @ 2.06 Sbobet.

The unlikely VPS goal is not on top of the wish list.
There is probably a stream available, my advice is not to search for it but go for a walk or a pint instead.

MyPa-HJK preview 11.5.2009 & short report

Editing a short match report:

I drove 300 km to watch the game live, someone with less motivation might have settled to watch it on tv.

MyPa was good last night, active with domination of the midfield making the HJK defence to look like the fools they are in reality. Only the lack of any goal-scoring power helped HJK to be in the game.

Of course HJK might argue that they would have deserved a penalty kick after 5 min of play and everythind would have looked diffenent from them on. They are right, but as it did not happen we have to settle with facts. MyPa was better, Ady being the man of the match.

In the dying minutes HJK captain got injured when tackled by Maxim Votinov, and he is likely to be out of the game for some 4 to 6 weeks, but it might do HJK a world of good. They need to replace him with someone who is more comfortable with the ball and let Medo do all the dirty work by himself. Unless they decide to go with Fowler, but not even HJK coach Muurinen can be that stupid, can he?

I am not too happy with my selection to back HJK, but that is the curse of pre-match bets. We do not know what is going to happen, we can only make educated guesses.
------


Look for a stream, this game is televised at 19.00 + 2 gmt.

MyPa was awfully defenseminded last time around away at HJK, and even that they are playing home tonight the same is pretty much to be expected. There are no good strikers in the club after all and all points earned are equally important. Also two key defenders Timoska and Aho are doubtful.

In the previous game against Honka MyPa did not create any goalchances and neither did Honka, and the weaknesses of MyPa - goalie Antti Kuismala were not exposed, this will change tonight.

My first pick for this game is HJK-0.25 @ 1.87 which is slightly valuable according to numbers. (1.80 limit)

Second pick is HJK - 0.5 with the rosen price of 2.24 Sbobet. Wondering why and thanking Sbobet the same time.

Edit: Funny enough, the prices of HJK are getting higher at the moment, I can not see one single reason for that. If you want to bet HJK it might be worth while checking the odds actively now.


1x2 % 26.0% - 27.0% - 47.0% (3.85 - 3.70 - 2.13)
Moneyline 35.6% - 64.4% (2.81 - 1.55)
1x 53.0% (1.89)
x2 74.0% (1.35)
12 73.0% (1.37)
goal average 0.940 - 1.360

Handicaps

home -0.5 : away +0.5 26.0% - 74.0% (3.85 - 1.35)
home -1.5 : away +1.5 9.1% - 90.9% (11.02 - 1.10)
home +0.5 : away -0.5 53.0% - 47.0% (1.89 - 2.13)
home +1.5 : away -1.5 77.7% - 22.3% (1.29 - 4.48)
home +2.5 : away -2.5 91.7% - 8.3% (1.09 - 12.10)


home -1.5 : away +1.5 9.1% - 90.9% (11.02 - 1.10)
home -1.25 : away +1.25 10.0% - 90.0% (10.00 - 1.11)
home -1.0 : away +1.0 10.9% - 89.1% (9.16 - 1.12)
home -0.75 : away +0.75 18.5% - 81.5% (5.42 - 1.23)
home -0.5 : away +0.5 26.0% - 74.0% (3.85 - 1.35)
home -0.25 : away 0.25 30.8% - 69.2% (3.25 - 1.45)
home 0 : away 0 35.6% - 64.4% (2.81 - 1.55)
home 0.25 : away 0.25 44.3% - 55.7% (2.26 - 1.80)
home +0.5 : away -0.5 53.0% - 47.0% (1.89 - 2.13)
home +0.75 : away -0.75 61.7% - 38.3% (1.62 - 2.61)
home +1.0 : away -1.0 70.4% - 29.6% (1.42 - 3.37)
home +1.25 : away -1.25 74.0% - 26.0% (1.35 - 3.85)
home +1.5 : away -1.5 77.7% - 22.3% (1.29 - 4.48)



0.5 goals 90.2% (1.11) 9.8% (10.18)
1.5 66.9% (1.49) 33.1% (3.03)
2.5 40.6% (2.46) 59.4% (1.68)
3.5 20.1% (4.98) 79.9% (1.25)
4.5 8.4% (11.87) 91.6% (1.09)

Total Moneyline 0ver / under

1 goal 87.2% (1.15) 12.8% (7.82)
2 goals 55.1% (1.81) 44.9% (2.23)
3 goals 25.3% (3.96) 74.7% (1.34)
4 goals 9.5% (10.48) 90.5% (1.11)

Honka & Pallohonka

The Honka reserve teams has used quite a lot first team players, to secure their place in the division and in order to give some valuable experience and minutes on the pitch for the players who do not quite make it in the first team.

Last night Pallohonka won KaaPo rather easily 2-0, the minutes of the match indicate that Aalto, Koskimaa, Simpanen and Värttö were there to help the reserves to win.





Sarja KAKKONEN / LOHKO B
Kenttä Tapiola tekonurmi
Ottelu Pallohonka - KaaPo Tulos 2 - 0 (1 - 0)
Ott. nro 17470 Yleisö 0
Erotuomari Mörö Mikko Aika 9.5.2009
Av. erot. 1 Kovapohja Joonas 1. puoliaika 18:30:04 - 19:15:25
Av. erot. 2 AET 2. puoliaika 19:29:48 - 20:16:14
Tarkkailija --T--

Joukkueet
Pallohonka
6 Aalto Henri
4 Koskimaa Ville
5 Paularinne Riku
19 Perera Niko
12 Pyhäranta Jere
10 Roschier Toni
10 Seferi Valmir
13 Sid Simon
8 Simpanen Juuso
16 Värttö Jarkko
9 Väyrynen Tim

7 Armean Ionel
3 Autio Tuomas
18 Heinonen Tuomo
22 Qerimi Shpat
7 Seferi Valdrin
1 Siren Joonas


KaaPo
2 Harju Mikko
10 Heimo Matti
21 Hämäläinen Heikki
4 Kirjonen Juho
1 Laaksonen Marko
6 Leino Petri
7 Lempinen Kai
22 Pitkänen Petteri
24 Päiväläinen Mikko
9 Sjögård Marcus

8 Harjanne Mikko
28 Hurme Matti
11 Hyökki Mikko
23 Riihimäki Visa

Tapahtumat

Min Joukkue Tapahtuma Nro Pelaaja
45 Pallohonka Maali 9 Väyrynen Tim
47 Pallohonka Maali 6 Aalto Henri
52 Pallohonka Varoitus 16 Värttö Jarkko
52 KaaPo Vaihto 4 Kirjonen Juho
28 Hurme Matti
55 KaaPo Varoitus 7 Lempinen Kai
57 Pallohonka Vaihto 10 Roschier Toni
7 Seferi Valdrin
59 KaaPo Vaihto 7 Lempinen Kai
8 Harjanne Mikko
65 KaaPo Varoitus 22 Pitkänen Petteri
66 Pallohonka Vaihto 10 Seferi Valmir
22 Qerimi Shpat
69 KaaPo Vaihto 24 Päiväläinen Mikko
11 Hyökki Mikko
76 Pallohonka Vaihto 9 Väyrynen Tim
7 Armean Ionel

Helsinki International U17 tournament in May 2009

Link

Veikkausliiga Finland round 4

There will be more thorough previews later, I am only publishing the games and early predictions now. If you can not wait there is already Nordic Football News preview available.


6.5. HJK - IFK Mariehamn highlights

The visitors are hugely underrated. MIFK -1.25 € 2.05 sbobet

Edit: it is only 1.82 anymore, still value. Straight win has dropped from 9 > 7.5,--> 7.0 also still some value.--> 1.74 & 6.2 now.. should be about right.

FT Edit: 2-0 after two stupid mistakes in defence. Even game according to reports and match statistics.


7.5. FC Honka - MYPA
Game will be played on artificial pitch which helps Honka a lot. Home win and possibly over 2.5. Limit for home win 1.85

Edit: ft 0-0. My grandma would have saved all the "shots" in this game. MyPa is boring and lousy.

7.5. JJK - Haka

First Veikkausliiga game in Jyväskylä ever! I am expecting a lot of passion and very little skill. No bet. Haka is a favourite because there is a lot more class, I am not sure if there is enough of it to justify a bet for away win though. Under 2.5 looks more likely.

Edit : ft 0-0. JJK was slighly less bad.


7.5. FF Jaro - KuPS

First home game for Jaro after being away at TPS, Inter and TamU! Home win, with a -1 handicap. Jaro belongs still to the upper half of the table, KuPs is bottom-3 and will be for the whole season.

Edit : ft 1-1. Shameful really for the hosts and a couple of key players picked up an injury too. Bad news for Pietarsaari.


7.5.FC Lahti - VPS

Poor VPS had been waiting for a defender from Albania to solve all their problems on and off the pitch. He is not coming, and that will tell you the depth of VPS misery. Home win & a crap game.

Edit : ft can you guess? 0-0. Attackminded new VPS has not yet convinced me.


7.5. RoPS - FC Inter

The most international of all Veikkausliiga teams welcomes the champions to Lapland.
I am not sure what to expect. Anything, I guess. African rhytms and reindeer at least.

Edit : ft 0-2. RoPs missed not one but two penalties. I can there is a mirror to be watched at Rovaniemi.


8.5. TamU - TPS

Two of the biggest meet and both are already in crisis. No goals, no fun. No bets yet. TV-game on friday.

Edit : ft 0-1. 3 points with a poor game, all of those are earned by TPS goalie Jukka Lehtovaara. Crisis continue at both camps.

Veikkausliiga team of the month April 2009

The league chooses a 4-4-2 ideal formation each month and April team is presented below:


Goalkeeper: Markus Koljander (Jaro)

Defence: Jukka Raitala (HJK) – Paulus Arajuuri (IFK) – Heikki Haara (Lahti) – Pietari Holopainen (Haka)

Midfield: Wayne Brown (TPS) – Valeri Popovits (HJK) – Jukka Vanninen (Lahti) – Ilari Äijälä (MYPA)

Strikers: Hermanni Vuorinen (Honka) – Sasha Anttilainen (IFK)

Player of the month: Hermanni Vuorinen (Honka) 6 goals in 3 games
Coach of the month: Pekka Lyyski (IFK) 2-1-0. All games home though.

A bit odd team, but as this is more for fun than pure science I do not want to argue too strongly. There is one forecast I would like to make however - this is the first and last time when we see Anttilainen in the spotlight or he has improved hell of a lot since last season!

TPS- FF Jaro preview

This must be a dull encounter as no one has been interested enough to write a decent preview. I did put my trust on Nordic Football News and hoped in vain that Egan would write a thorough preview which I could just copy or perhaps link to, but he has obviously been too busy with Tampere United business and came up with almost nothing.

Personally I see this game as a very likely ground for an upset, as Jaro coach Laurikainen know TPS very well, he has been working in the club as well some of his players, and TPS seems to suit them quite beautifully.

Under 2.5 or even under 2 goals is very likely in this game where ex-TPS Mikko Hyyrynen just might be the decisive factor.

Prediction : 0-1. Away win.

FT 1-1. TPS is still winless and anxiety is in the air.

Monday Madness at the Factory´s Pitch

In the unfortunate case that you do not live in Finland you have to find a stream to watch tonight´s Veikkausliiga tv-match Haka - FC Honka. After a good and lucky start the men in White are still in the upper half of the league and the owner of the club has even signed an Argentinian to strengthen the team and his own high hopes of success this season.

All in vain.

Just like HJK did last week also Honka will show the Valkeakoski team how big is the difference in class and quality. In the last encounters Haka has really struggled against Honka and taking into consideration that Haka is weaker than ever and Honka is stronger an away win is the most likely outcome, and a lot of goals are also to be expected.

Latest Honka matches below;

27.04.09 Veikkausliiga VPS vs. FC Honka 2:5
23.04.09 Veikkausliiga IFK Mariehamn vs. FC Honka 2:2
19.04.09 Veikkausliiga FC Honka vs. FC Lahti 2:2
21.03.09 Liigacup FC Honka vs. TPS 2:2
5:7 (r)
14.03.09 Liigacup, VPS vs. FC Honka 1:4
11.03.09 Liigacup, MyPa vs. FC Honka 0:1

Latest Haka-Honka matches;

24.01.09 Liigacup, Lohko 2 FC Honka vs. FC Haka 1:0
29.10.08 Suomen Cup FC Haka vs. FC Honka 0:1
23.08.08 Veikkausliiga FC Haka vs. FC Honka 1:2
15.05.08 Veikkausliiga FC Honka vs. FC Haka 7:0
07.10.07 Veikkausliiga FC Haka vs. FC Honka 1:1
25.07.07 Veikkausliiga FC Honka vs. FC Haka 0:2

Away win, odds over 2.1 are good value. Over 2.5 goals, value when odds above 1.9

edit : ft 1-1. The pitch was in horrid condition!

Finland U19 - Scouting Special!

Update; the 2-1 loss to Hungary ended hopes of qualification.

Finland against Hungary:
Joonas Pöntinen, KuPS
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Tapio Heikkilä, FC Honka
Thomas Götzl, FC Hansa Rostock
Tero Mäntylä, Portsmouth FC
Joni Kauko, FC Inter
Petteri Pennanen, FC Twente
Rasmus Schüller, FC Honka
Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka
Teemu Pukki, Sevilla FC > 70’ Wilhelm Ingves, IFK Mariehamn
Lauri Dalla Valle, Liverpool FC




Update as the qualification has started. Finland drew with Serbia away 1-1 in the opener and the line-up was also far better than in the friendlies mentioned below, starring Teemu Pukki and Lauri Dalla Valle. A friendly is always a friendly, nothing else.

Line-up against Serbia 13.5.2009;

Suomen kokoonpano Serbiaa vastaan:
Joonas Pöntinen, KuPS
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Tapio Heikkilä, FC Honka
Tero Mäntylä, Portsmouth FC
Timi Lahti, Padova Calcio
Riku Heini, FC Lahti -> 62' Johannes Westö, HJK
Rasmus Schüller, FC Honka -> 78' Petteri Forsell, VPS
Joni Kauko, FC Inter
Lauri Dalla Valle, Liverpool FC
Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka
Teemu Pukki, Sevilla FC -> 57' Petteri Pennanen, FC Twente

----------------------- earlier shite------------

Some of the youth teams of Finland are not absolute bullshit. I wish I could say the same about our current U19 - team, but if we think that results speak for themselves there is not too much to add.

Germany - Finland 7-0
France - Finland 7-0

I honestly think there is some talent in the team, but as a team there is not much to expect at the moment.

Finland line - up against France;

Tomas Karike, HJK
Mikko Sumusalo, HJK
Thomas Götzl, FC Hansa Rostock
Tapio Heikkilä, FC Honka
Tero Mäntylä, Portsmouth FC
Riku Heini, FC Lahti
Jaakko Lepola, FC Honka
Rasmus Schüller, FC Honka
Daniel Fellman, FF Jaro
Petteri Pennanen, FC Twente
Johannes Westö, HJK

Good luck to Europe, boys!

Ykkönen 2.5.09 - Hämeenlinna goalie problems

Hämeenlinna is giving a debut for a new goalie and the timing could not be more wrong as PK-35 comes to visit with the most deadly striking duo in the League, Kaijasilta and Huuhtanen.

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 Sbobet. Thank you in advance!

edit:According to match reports there were about a million goal chances, but for Hämeenlinna! I find it a bit strange as PK was the favourite through out the game in live-betting. FT: 1-1

Do not know who to trust, but it was only one game.

May Day!

This is as good day as any to start looking at the games at hand. Tomorrow 2.5.2009 there are two Veikkausliiga games when MyPa meets again Inter Turku and VPS to Tampere.

TamU are in crisis now, -again some might say - but of course continue as favourites against the strenghtened side from Vaasa. The odds however are close to being ridiculous and VPS +1 @ 2,08 Sbobet is the natural choice for any punter with some brains.

Edit: there seem to be some people awake as the odds have dropped to 1.91 now.

Inter is also starting to look like a team tough to beat just like it was last season, and my choice at Myllykoski is Inter + 0,25 @ 1.97. The next games of this round will be played on Monday.

EDT: FT 0-0 at MyPa and 1-0 at Tampere. No wins today.

Kakkonen Group C 2009

Odds from Nordicbet 1.5.2009

Seinäjoen JK 3.00
VIFK 5.00
FC OPA 5.00
OPS-jp 7.00
FC YPA 7.00
GBK 15.00
FCJ 20.00
FCV 20.00
JBK 20.00
FC Santa Claus 30.00
OLS 30.00
Norrvalla FF 30.00
Virkiä 50.00
PK-37 50.00

Kakkonen 2009 Group B

Odds to win from Nordicbet

SalPa 3.00
LoPa 4.00
KaaPo 5.00
Ilves 6.00
P-Iirot 8.00
EIF 20.00
ÅIFK 20.00
Närpes Kraft 20.00
PP-70 20.00
Pallohonka 30.00
FC Espoo 30.00
Sinimustat 30.00
FC Jazz-j 50.00
PJK 50.00

Kakkonen Group A

Odds from Nordicbet to win Group A. I can not create a ranking good enough so this must do.

MP 3.00
GrIFK 4.00
KäPa 5.00
FC Kuusankoski 6.00
KTP 8.00
HIFK 10.00
Gnistan 15.00
Warkaus JK 18.00
PK Keski-Uusimaa 60.00
LPS 80.00
HyPS 80.00
Futura 120.00
Kiffen 150.00
Kultsu FC 300.00