Kakkonen C 25.9.

FC YPA - HauPa -0,75 1 66% 1,74 5/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - HauPa O2.75 63% 1,82 5/10 Sbobet
Warkaus JK - Kiisto +0,5 2 62% 2,00 4/10 Sbobet
ViPa - GBK -0,25 2 57% 1,90 3/10 Sbobet

Warkaus JK - Kiisto 39 22 39
o/u 2.5: 67 33

With JBK losing on Thursday Warkaus has a great chance to secure their place for the next year's Kakkonen, but I can't justify them being favorites as they've been playing so poorly for a long time now. Kiisto would not be a that good choice either as they've been nearly as cold as Warkaus, so the best option might be found on the total markets and specifically the over.

FC YPA - HauPa 70 16 14
o/u 2.5: 67 33

This game and the next two don't have any stake on them so just skipping them could well be the best option. YPA, GBK and PK-37 each are a lot better than their opponents and with current odds the first two are okay choices with lowered stakes. Total lines have been set mostly at 3.25 today, but just blanket betting overs would likely yield some profit.

ViPa - GBK 29 21 50
o/u 2.5: 65 35

PK-37 - SC Riverball 70 16 14
o/u 2.5: 67 33

FC Santa Claus - FC Vaajakoski 78 12 10
o/u 2.5: 78 22

FCV's last trip to north didn't go that well so most likely this match will not bring any points either as their opponent is actually very motivated this time. Lots of goals should be expected also, but the line will probably be ridiculously high.


TPS TV - Highlights


Finnish Cup Final KuPS - HJK

Edit: Stream should be found here - LINK (Women´s final as well)

The game is played at the Sonera stadium, which is HJK's home stadium and makes them the actual home team. The 1x2 odds are set more or less like this was a normal season match and taking pure stats as measure they may look reasonable at first look. Since the Cup final is always an own story and a lot has changed during the last few weeks and I see pretty obvious value on the KuPS side.

Lets take a fast look at the season of KuPS to get the picture:

The early rounds of the Cup were played during the earliest stage of season and the final teams have been known already since end of May. For KuPS this meant early on that they will most probably play in the Europa League next season, as the opponent HJK was more or less the only serious  title contender from the start. The Veikkausliiga season didn´t start well for KuPS and rather soon the only real goal for them was to stay out of the relegation battle and concentrate on this Cup final.

KuPS  also had a lot of bad luck in terms of injuries, which by now are all more or less overcome and all players are available again. Two new signings were made as well, a forward (Lemessa) and a central midfielder (Bono) who both seem to be useful players on Veikkausliiga level. KuPS have rotated their squad heavily to get and keep all players healthy and back for this important game, they have now basically their full squad to choose from and look really ready to give HJK a good fight to say the least. The last few rounds show clear improvement, even with a rotated team they have played way better than in the early season. (eg: lost away vs HJK just 0-1)

HJK on the other side have played a great season and good European campaign as well, getting hit by the power of Schalkes Veltins Arena to stop them on the last meters to the Europa League group stage.The good performances in the European competion were not unseen by scouts and HJK were able to sell 3 players for good money (Rafinha, Dawda Bah and Pukki). Those 3 players had a big part of HJK dominance this season and their departure has without a doubt weakened HJK significantly - they all had a big role in the squad.

To sum it up:

KuPS are now a way better team than the Veikkausliiga standing lets us assume, they have players back from injury and strengthened the squad with two new signings. Focus has been on this one game for a long time. 

HJK have weakened with the transfer of 3 key players.  (4 if we remember df Juhani Ojala who left for Young Boys earlier. ) They have still the best team in the league but the gap has become a lot smaller for sure. KuPS with current squad is a team for the top-4 places in Veikkausliiga, far away from the low position they hold now. (why they don´t care is explained above).

KuPS can win something really big for them, while for HJK it is simply "something more" they can win.

Market avg of 67% for HJK would had been correct 5-6 weeks ago with all KuPS problems and HJK with all sold key players who are now gone. The Cup is always something special and home advantage is lower as usual.

With all this in clear mind and taking the current situation of the teams, my 90min 1X2 estimation looks like this: 20% KuPS -  27% Draw - 53% HJK

Value all way long on KuPS! Good Luck to all going for it!

Courtesy of 

Naturally, with love from Finland


Kakkonen C 22.9.

VIFK - JBK -0,75 1 57,5% 1,84 2,5/10 Sbobet

VIFK - JBK 63 19 18
o/u 2.5: 63 37

VIFK is still playing like they're going for promotion so it's hard to go any lower with their estimation even if this game is extremely important JBK. Also, with having the fortune of seeing these two play against HauPa recently the class difference was huge in favor of VIFK, so -0,75 is acceptable for me.

Honka - RoPS FT 5-2 Highlights


Kakkonen 18.9.

GBK - VIFK +0,5 2 56% 1,92 4/10 Sbobet

GBK - VIFK 44 22 34
o/u 2.5: 63 37

Might be not a good idea to play away teams after yesterday's matches, but when GBK has clearly been in downtrend after visiting SJK and VIFK has been the opposite, best example being the very good game against SJK, the +0,5 handicap looks pretty good.


Kakkonen C 17.9.

SJK - Warkaus JK -2 1 76% 1,55 10/10 Sbobet
Kiisto - FC Santa Claus +0,5 2 58% 1,86 4/10 Sbobet
Kiisto - FC Santa Claus O3.0 56,5% 1,86 2,5/10 Sbobet
SC Riverball - FC YPA -1 2 67% 1,82 9/10 Sbobet
SC Riverball - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,86 3/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - FC Vaajakoski -1,5 1 54,5% 2,00 3/10 Sbobet
ViPa - PK-37 +0,25 2 55,5% 2,03 4/10 Sbobet
ViPa - PK-37 O3.0 55% 1,93 2/10 Sbobet
HauPa - JBK +0,25 2 59% 1,82 4/10 Sbobet
HauPa - JBK O3.0 52% 2,00 1/10 Sbobet

SJK - Warkaus JK 93 5 2
o/u 2.5: 78 22

Only thing going for Warkaus is obviously the motivation, but since they've been just plain awful for ages now it's hard to put any weight on that angle. In addition to the SJK handicap, total interests me a lot given away team's recent displays, e: but not with 3.75 line.

Kiisto - FC Santa Claus 42 22 36
o/u 2.5: 66 34

One of the many relegation battles today, not much separating these two but I'll give a slight edge to Santa as they've been marginally better lately.

SC Riverball - FC YPA 12 14 74
o/u 2.5: 72 28

Nothing special in stake here, but in-form YPA shouldn't face any problems in handling Riverball.

TP-47 - FC Vaajakoski 76 14 10
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Both teams have performed pretty badly and lack motivation so not the best type of match to put your money on. However, away team could be worth a try if TP-47 are set as huge favorites. e: and it was surprisingly the other way around.

ViPa - PK-37 39 22 39
o/u 2.5: 65 35

PK-37 has been slightly better overall this season so it's hard to find any fault in euro bookies which have been set even too. In asian markets, ViPa have been for some reason set as favorites so I'll have to pick PK-37.

HauPa - JBK 36 22 42
o/u 2.5: 63 37

Extremely important game for both teams, like ViPa-PK-37 this is basically a 50-50 match so I don't envision there being anything interesting in the handicaps. e: +0,25 is however very tasty.


TPS line-up today vs FF Jaro

They borrow gk from Kakkonen club Åbo IFK.  Jaro seem to be without gk Teles?




HJK transfers

Another good article about the impact of the sales at IWFB.


It has been a highly eventful start to the autumn for HJK. First, maintaining their devastating form in the league, the Helsinki club all but secured the Veikkausliiga title already in August. Then, ‘Klubi’ gave Schalke a proper run for their money in the Europa League play-offs, beating the Germans 2-0 at home until imploding in the second half of the away leg as the hosts ran rampage with a 6-1 victory. After being knocked out of Europe, and with only a few days to go in the transfer window, they sold three of their key players for a truckload of cash.
Euro-sensation Teemu Pukki (or “Euro-Pukki” as Bild dubbed him) transferred to Schalke on a Veikkausliiga transfer fee record of approximately 1,5 million euros while Dawda Bah and Rafinha found new homes from Augsburg and Gent respectively (Juhani Ojala had already transferred to Young Boys in mid-August). From the sale of the quartet, HJK got an estimated total of 3 million in transfer fees. This may not seem like much in the context of the mad modern football economics but the sum actually exceeds HJK’s annual budget (about 2, 2 million). -----


Kakkonen 14.9.

SJK - TP-47 87 9 4
o/u 2.5: 67 33

SJK played a really poor match against VIFK and should've deserved to lose, so that's definitely not a good sign going into the promotion playoffs. They still miss many of their strikers, but topscorer Meyer does return from suspension. With HauPa match still fresh in my mind TP-47 still has a very solid defense but going forward they showed nothing other than one cross that accidentally hit the crossbar. All in all it's no surprise they've barely scored any goals after Caumo left apart from the Warkaus game.

SJK - TP-47 -1,5 1 68,5% 1,88 9/10 Sbobet
SJK - TP-47 O3.0 58% 1,86 3/10 Sbobet

Veikkausliiga odds Sep 16th -->


Kakkonen C 11.9.

HauPa - TP-47 U2.75 56% 1,90 3/10 Sbobet
HauPa - TP-47 +0.0 2 57% 2,26 3/10 Sbobet

HauPa - TP-47 32 25 43
o/u 2.5: 50 50

Under is definitely the tastier choice here as both teams are known for their good defending and poor attacking play. Obligatory bet on HauPa's opponent is in order too as I still (foolishly) hold the belief that HauPa's squad is Kolmonen material, but the TP-47 pk can be safely skipped if you feel so.


Kakkonen C 10.9.

FC Vaajakoski - GBK -1,25 2 63% 1,82 5/10 Sbobet
FC Vaajakoski - GBK O3.25 59% 1,93 5/10 Sbobet
SC Riverball - Kiisto -1 2 57% 1,82 2,5/10 Sbobet
JBK - ViPa +0,75 2 60% 2,14 4/10 Sbobet
JBK - ViPa U3.25 53% 1,98 1/10 Sbobet

FC Vaajakoski - GBK 10 14 76
o/u 2.5: 73 27

SC Riverball - Kiisto 15 18 67
o/u 2.5: 65 35

This and the above match do not have any odds available at the moment and I don't really blame the bookies. GBK played like sh*t against HauPa and now that they have basically no chance to reach the promotion playoffs who knows if they decide to show up or not. Kiisto still has to fear about relegation, but despite their continuing poor form -1 against Riverball is worth a small bet.

FC YPA - Warkaus JK 70 16 14
o/u 2.5: 70 30

Hard to see anything other than a home win here as class and form are easily on YPA's side.

FC Santa Claus - PK-37 56 20 24
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Santa Claus put up a shameful performance against ViPa so they continue to be a bit too unpredictable. PK-37 managed a fluke draw against SJK but other than that they've been even more unimpressive than Santa. However, I can't justify any bets on the home team with the current odds.

JBK - ViPa 47 21 32
o/u 2.5: 65 35

Strange ViPa odds again as JBK has been rated at nearly 60% to win. JBK has two very disappointing draw behind them, though they were very unlucky to not win in both games. +0,75 would definitely interest me as I don't think there's such a big difference in class as the odds suggest.


Kakkonen C 7.9.

VIFK - SJK -0,75 2 68% 1,85 10/10 Sbobet
VIFK - SJK O3.0 56,5% 1,86 2,5/10 Sbobet

VIFK - SJK 12 16 72
o/u 2.5: 66 34

SJK still misses Caumo and Meyer from their striking squad. They also lost their only good goalkeeper Luis Fernando to an injury and VIFK is still in a pretty good form, but you'd think 19 wins from 22 games would earn a little more respect than -0,75. This is still a derby game so the motivation should be there, and the draw against PK-37 was according to the reports a quite unlucky result.


Finland - Holland

Can not really understand why Finland odds ddropped, so took Holland -1 @ 1.94 instead.

Finland squad:

Lukas Hradecky, 2 Petri Pasanen, 3 Niklas Moisander, 4 Joona Toivio, 7 Roman Eremenko, 8Perparim Hetemaj, 9 Mikael Frossell, 10 Teemu Pukki, 13 Kari Arkivuo, 19 Alexander Ring, 21 Kasper Hämäläinen.  


Kakkonen C 4.9.

PK-37 - SJK O3.25 60% 1,88 5/10 Sbobet

PK-37 - SJK -1,25 2 72% 1,83 10/10 Sbobet

Warkaus JK - FC Vaajakoski -1 1 55% 1,99 3/10 Sbobet

Warkaus JK - FC Vaajakoski O3.25 56% 2,01 5/10 Sbobet

GBK - HauPa -1,25 1 67% 2,08 8/10 Sbobet

GBK - HauPa O3.0 58% 1,99 4/10 Sbobet

TP-47 - VIFK +0,5 2 54% 2,02 3/10 Sbobet

TP-47 - VIFK U3.0 62% 1,86 4/10 Sbobet

Kiisto - FC YPA +0,25 2 54,5% 1,88 2/10 Sbobet

Kiisto - FC YPA O2.5 64% 1,78 5/10 Sbobet

PK-37 - SJK 6 11 83

o/u 2.5: 74 26

SJK misses couple of their first choice strikers, but with the depth they have they shouldn't have problems beating PK-37, whose only marginally bright spot in the last two months was their last week's win away at Varkaus.

Warkaus JK - FC Vaajakoski 65 17 18

o/u 2.5: 71 29

Warkaus changed their coach so at least they're trying to do something. Some value could be found on the home win, but with the displays they've had after midsummer they do deserve to go down so limited stakes, if any, for me. Both teams, especially Warkaus, have usually shipped huge amount of goals in their games so over is more tastier.

GBK - HauPa 80 13 7

o/u 2.5: 67 33

GBK misses two of their key yanks and they might have some SJK hangover, but as said before HauPa has just been garbage in their away games so a GBK handicap looks appealing with the current odds.

TP-47 - VIFK 46 24 30

o/u 2.5: 52 48

TP-47 hasn't been at their best form after losing Caumo, though the blowout loss to YPA was a bit unlucky if reports are to be trusted. VIFK has been pretty good for the past couple of months and they looked quite good against HauPa(probably the third best team I've seen after GBK and SJK). Class difference shouldn't be huge so I'm at loss where the bookies get the big advantage for TP-47. Under line is just silly at 3.0 as both are certainly the most boring and low-scoring teams year round, but my fear of unders makes me go with lower stakes.

Kiisto - FC YPA 40 22 38

o/u 2.5: 64 36

YPA might not have played that good to deserve their winning streak, but at least they finally found their effectiveness and at the same time probably saved themselves from relegation. Kiisto has also managed to pick important points lately but they haven't really been as good as YPA, so odds for the away win look quite good as I still hold the belief that YPA's squad is easily top half material.


Kakkonen C 3.9.

JBK - SC Riverball O3.0 63,5% 1,78 5/10 Sbobet

ViPa - FC Santa Claus O3.0 55% 1,91 2/10 12bet

ViPa - FC Santa Claus +0,25 2 63% 1,88 5/10 Sbobet

JBK - SC Riverball 75 14 11

o/u 2.5: 71 29

Eurobookie odds don't look that encouraging for JBK so unless something unexpected happens it is best to just skip any side bets. Jaro has given JBK some players but from what I've gathered one shouldn't expect them to perform miracles à la PK-37, and as you can see from Riverball's latest matches they are rarely blown out.

ViPa - FC Santa Claus 33 21 46

o/u 2.5: 65 35

I don't rate Santa to be that much worse than Kiisto so I was a bit surprised with the complete reversal in the odds compared to last week. ViPa will likely get some of the players back who missed the Kiisto match, but Santa is still a class or two better in my papers.


Veikkausliiga odds Sept 8th

Kakkonen round 22

Kakkonen A

Klubi 04 - MP

GrIFK - Sudet

KäPa - KTP

FC Kuusysi - Gnistan

LPS - Atlantis FC

FC Futura - MPS

FC Kiffen - Pallohonka 
Kakkonen B

SalPa – TiPS

Åbo IFK – Ilves

TPV – Pallo-Iirot

MuSa – BK-46

LoPa – Ilves-Kissat

JäPS – TuTo

Jazz – Kraft
Kakkonen C

JBK - SC Riverball

ViPa - FC Santa Claus

PK-37 – SJK


GBK – HauPa

TP-47 – VIFK

Kiisto - YPA

Kakkonen C

SJK exactly as powerful as they should be with their squad.

The promoted teams HauPa and ViPa are still above the relegation line, can they keep up? Jaro for sure do not want their reserves JBK to drop.

Kakkonen B

Surprise package BK-46 lead and likely will win the group as they are still undefeated and had a great game last week vs Pallo-Iirot and won 3-0 despite the red card of Astrada.

Results and fixtures:

The group has been very uneven and the bottom 5 have had a play-off of their own for the whole season, probably 4 of them will get relegated, but at least 3 for sure. The biggest favourites Ilves hang on to promotion play-off spot at the moment but there are still 5 rounds to go..