13 bets in April 2009 in Finnish leagues

I am not quite sure if I have published all of them here, but this is mainly for personal use anyway at the moment and for some hard-core freaks. All bets at Sbobet.

13 bets,
9 won
3 lost
1 half won.

staked 13, won 19.54 --> 150,28 % return.

Now to be honest there are some more that I have done, but I seem to be a bit disoriented now. Maybe I will sort these out some other day than May Day.


Pick Line odds result profit/loss
18.04.09 Pk-35 Viikingit over 2,75 1,94 4-1 0,94
18.04.09 HJK KuPs over 3 2,12 5-1 1,12
19.04.09 Honka Lahti over 2,5 2,25 2-2 1,25
22.04.09 VPS Haka Haka 0 & -0.5 2,31 0-1 1,31
22.04.09 Inter MyPa under 2 2,09 2-1 -1
22.04.09 Lahti KuPs Lahti -1,5 1,99 1-0 -1
27.04.09 VPS Honka Honka -0.5 1,92 2-4 0,92
27.04.09 TPS JJK TPS -1 2,01 0-0 -1
27.04.09 VPS Honka over 2 1,76 2-4 0,76
29.04.09 Haka HJK over 2,5 2,25 1-2 1,25
29.04.09 Haka HJK away -0,5 2,20 1-2 1,2
29.04.09 Inter Jaro away 0,75 1,75 1-0 -0,5
29.04.09 MyPa TamU MyPa 0 2,29 4-1 1,29

Veikkausliiga round 3

I seem to disagree quite strongly with the markets. The only ones I will take for sure are these below:

Haka - HJK over 2,5 2,25
Haka - HJK away -0,5 2,20
Inter - Jaro away 0,75 1,75

At the moment I see Jaro and Inter equally strong and thus the odds are just mad. It is a good idea to have a maximum stake for days like these.


In the other games of this third round Mariehamn IFK will entertain KuPs and their animated homecrowd in a game which looks like an easy home win, Tampere United travel to MyPa in an open game where all the outcomes are pretty much as likely, and RoPS will start their season today travelling to meet FC Lahti after having their two first games postponed due to arctic weather conditions. This match has been called the King meets the King of Lapland, the King being Jari Litmanen and his northern colleague is Zeddy Saileti, a Zambian-born RoPS-icon.

Edit:after giving some serious thoughts to the tempest at TamU management I decided to give MyPa a go at 2.29 moneyline, this must be one of the first times I give them a chance. hope it wil not also be last.

Two bets for today

I know I am bit late with my choices as the odds have dropped a bit, but for the record;

TPS-JJK Tps-1 @ 2.01
VPS-Honka away win @ 1.92

flat stakes at sbobet.

There are more than one class in between the favourites and the underdogs tonight, and after checking that there is nothing too drastic on the team news side I pick the favourites today.

Of course, Honka is missing Heikkilä, Lepola and Schuller who all could be good enough to start wearing a VPS shirt, but at the moment there are so many other excellent players in the team that would have been warming the bench. Probably the same would have applied to last season´s best VPS-player Ville Koskimaa who changed to Honka for this season, but he is sidelined for his own good.

VPS - Honka 27.04.2009

If you believe like I do that Vaasa will not score tonight either there are several options to make a bet. An away win, both teams not to score, a 0-0 draw or something out of these.

Honka limits odds
0-1 7.82 7.00 bw
0-2 9.54 9.55 bf
0-3 17.45 20.95 bf
0-4 42.57 41.00 cb
11.09 9.36 bf
20.29 19.05 bf
49.50 35.00 bs


Against Haka VPS could not create one single chance even when playing 11 vs 10 most of the game.. why could they do it tonight? Live on tv in Finland, look for streams.

Scouts welcome to Kakkonen!

Here is a match report from last night Kakkonen (3rd highest). I want to keep to this remember how quickly these youngsters from Pallohonka have gone professional.

Most players of the team have already played also international games in the youth national team and/or for Premier league club FC Honka. Jaakko Lepola for instance scored last season against Viking Stavanger in the UEFA cup, Schuller did also start.

Ottelupöytäkirja

Sarja KAKKONEN / LOHKO B
Kenttä Tapiola tekonurmi
Ottelu Pallohonka - Närpes Kraft Tulos 3 - 0 (1 - 0)
Ott. nro 17440 Yleisö 80
Erotuomari Kuparinen Vesa Aika 26.4.2009
Av. erot. 1 AET 1. puoliaika 18:30:03 - 19:16:10
Av. erot. 2 AET 2. puoliaika 19:29:52 - 20:18:06
Tarkkailija --T--

Joukkueet
Pallohonka
19 Fager Tuomas
6 Heikkilä Tapio
14 Lepola Jaakko
5 Paularinne Riku
12 Pyhäranta Jere
10 Roschier Toni
20 Schuller Rasmus
13 Sid Simon
8 Simpanen Juuso
2 Virtanen Tomi
9 Väyrynen Tim

3 Autio Tuomas
18 Heinonen Tuomo
11 Matrone Claudio
22 Qerimi Shpat
6 Rasimus Konsta
7 Seferi Valdrin
1 Siren Joonas


Närpes Kraft

3 Aspholm Jonas
24 Backman Simon
13 Böling Kim
2 Gröndahl Christian
6 Imianowski Jacek
22 Linton Kevin
9 Metanov Ivan
16 Peic Zoran
20 Peth Kevin
4 Rajkovic Miroslav
1 Zlatkovic Vladan

15 Grandell Mårten
23 Granfors Jonas
21 Malm Tobias
12 Åström Jesper

Tapahtumat

Min Joukkue Tapahtuma Nro Pelaaja
30 Pallohonka Maali 9 Väyrynen Tim
58 Närpes Kraft Vaihto 9 Metanov Ivan
23 Granfors Jonas
58 Närpes Kraft Varoitus 2 Gröndahl Christian
59 Pallohonka Vaihto 10 Roschier Toni
6 Rasimus Konsta
60 Pallohonka Maali 14 Lepola Jaakko
60 Pallohonka Vaihto 9 Väyrynen Tim
22 Qerimi Shpat
67 Närpes Kraft Vaihto 24 Backman Simon
15 Grandell Mårten
72 Pallohonka Maali 22 Qerimi Shpat
72 Pallohonka Vaihto 13 Sid Simon
7 Seferi Valdrin
78 Närpes Kraft Vaihto 16 Peic Zoran
21 Malm Tobias
81 Pallohonka Varoitus 20 Schuller Rasmus

Somewhat reluctant Ykkönen ranking 2009 and odds from Nordicbet

Finnish Ykkönen (1st division, 2nd highest) is an impossible league. All the best players have been sold to the Premier league, there are some promising youngsters and a lot of questionmarks in foreign players and retiring stars.

Very little money is involved, though the best team on paper AC Oulu is apparently going through very difficult financial times. Could go under anyday now.



Ac Oulu
Pk-35

Fc Hämeenlinna
Viikingit

KPV
Popa
KePs
JIPPO
Klubi 04
TP-47
KooTeePee
Atlantis

Kiisto
TPV

First games will be played 25.04.2009, if I had to bet, I would draw blindly a draw.
Fortunately I don´t have to.

Here below are the odds from Nordicbet to win Ykkönen. No bets, I am on thin ice here at the moment.

AC Oulu 2.20
FC Viikingit 4.00
PK-35 5.00
PoPa 8.00
KPV 12.00
FC Hämeenlinna 12.00
FC KooTeePee 15.00
PS Kemi 20.00
TP-47 30.00
Atlantis FC 40.00
Klubi 04 50.00
TPV 50.00
FC Kiisto 75.00
JIPPO 100.00

Finland Kakkonen 24.4.2009

Kakkonen starts tonight in the west! Still expecting info, key players and loans are vital. Odds from SBOBET.


Ilves Tampere 1.77
Abo IFK 3.80
Draw 3.41

Sinimustat 3.14 --> 3.01
LoPa 2.05 --> 2.12
Draw 3.19 --> 3.16

KaaPo 1.33 --> 1.3
Ekenäs IF 6.20 --> 6.6
Draw 4.80 --> 5.00

Veikkausliiga 23.04.2009 MIFK - FC Honka

Running out of time..

1x2 % 28.0% - 29.0% - 43.0% (3.57 - 3.45 - 2.33)
Moneyline 39.4% - 60.6% (2.54 - 1.65)
1x 57.0% (1.75)
x2 72.0% (1.39)
12 71.0% (1.41)
Goals 1.080 - 1.420


Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 28.0% - 72.0% (3.57 - 1.39)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 10.8% - 89.2% (9.28 - 1.12)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 57.0% - 43.0% (1.75 - 2.33)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 79.3% - 20.7% (1.26 - 4.82)
Home +2.5 : Away -2.5 92.1% - 7.9% (1.09 - 12.71)

Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 10.8% - 89.2% (9.28 - 1.12)
Home -1.0 & -1.5 : Away +1.0 & +1.5 11.9% - 88.1% (8.41 - 1.14)
Home -1.0 : Away +1.0 13.0% - 87.0% (7.68 - 1.15)
Home -0.5 & -1.0 : Away +0.5 & +1.0 20.5% - 79.5% (4.88 - 1.26)
Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 28.0% - 72.0% (3.57 - 1.39)
Home 0 & -0.5 : Away 0 & +0.5 33.7% - 66.3% (2.97 - 1.51)
Home 0 : Away 0 39.4% - 60.6% (2.54 - 1.65)
Home 0 & +0.5 : Away 0 & -0.5 48.2% - 51.8% (2.07 - 1.93)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 57.0% - 43.0% (1.75 - 2.33)
Home +0.5 & +1.0 : Away -0.5 & -1.0 65.2% - 34.8% (1.53 - 2.87)
Home +1.0 : Away -1.0 73.3% - 26.7% (1.36 - 3.75)
Home +1.0 & +1.5 : Away -1.0 & -1.5 76.3% - 23.7% (1.31 - 4.22)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 79.3% - 20.7% (1.26 - 4.82)

EDIT: FT 2-2

Veikkausliiga 23.04.2009 TamU - FF Jaro

A tough one for Tampere and I decide not to bet on this one. A lot depends on if Mikko Hyyrynen for Jaro is fit or not.

1x2 % 57.0% - 27.0% - 16.0% (1.75 - 3.70 - 6.25)
Moneyline 78.1% - 21.9% (1.28 - 4.56)
1x 84.0% (1.19)
x2 43.0% (2.33)
12 73.0% (1.37)
1.720 - 0.780

Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 57.0% - 43.0% (1.75 - 2.33)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 32.3% - 67.7% (3.10 - 1.48)
Home -2.5 : Away +2.5 14.6% - 85.4% (6.87 - 1.17)
Home -3.5 : Away +3.5 5.4% - 94.6% (18.60 - 1.06)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 84.0% - 16.0% (1.19 - 6.25)



Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 32.3% - 67.7% (3.10 - 1.48)
Home -1.0 & -1.5 : Away +1.0 & +1.5 37.6% - 62.4% (2.66 - 1.60)
Home -1.0 : Away +1.0 42.9% - 57.1% (2.33 - 1.75)
Home -0.5 & -1.0 : Away +0.5 & +1.0 49.9% - 50.1% (2.00 - 2.00)
Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 57.0% - 43.0% (1.75 - 2.33)
Home 0 & -0.5 : Away 0 & +0.5 67.5% - 32.5% (1.48 - 3.08)
Home 0 : Away 0 78.1% - 21.9% (1.28 - 4.57)
Home 0 & +0.5 : Away 0 & -0.5 81.0% - 19.0% (1.23 - 5.28)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 84.0% - 16.0% (1.19 - 6.25)
Home +0.5 & +1.0 : Away -0.5 & -1.0 89.3% - 10.7% (1.12 - 9.39)
Home +1.0 : Away -1.0 94.7% - 5.3% (1.06 - 18.84)
Home +1.0 & +1.5 : Away -1.0 & -1.5 95.0% - 5.0% (1.05 - 19.97)




goals over under
0.5 90.6% (1.10) 9.4% (10.61)
1.5 71.0% (1.41) 29.0% (3.45)
2.5 44.4% (2.25) 55.6% (1.80)
3.5 24.0% (4.17) 76.0% (1.32)
4.5 10.5% (9.53) 89.5% (1.12)
Moneyline
over under
1 88.3% (1.13) 11.7% (8.53)
2 60.5% (1.65) 39.5% (2.53)
3 30.1% (3.32) 69.9% (1.43)
4 12.1% (8.24) 87.9% (1.14)

Pick: No bet

EDIT: FT A surprise away win for Jaro 0-2

Veikkausliiga HJK - TPS 23.04.2009

Both teams have chaotic central defences and home team also 5! good strikers. Feels like an over 2.5 to me, and a home win. The numbers below do not back that feeling really and I need to wait to see the game live.

1x2 % 55.0% - 27.0% - 18.0% (1.82 - 3.70 - 5.56)
Moneyline 75.3% - 24.7% (1.33 - 4.06)
1x 82.0% (1.22)
x2 45.0% (2.22)
12 73.0% (1.37)
goals 1.660 - 0.840


Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 55.0% - 45.0% (1.82 - 2.22)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 30.2% - 69.8% (3.31 - 1.43)
Home -2.5 : Away +2.5 13.2% - 86.8% (7.58 - 1.15)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 82.0% - 18.0% (1.22 - 5.56)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 94.4% - 5.6% (1.06 - 17.76)

Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 30.2% - 69.8% (3.31 - 1.43)
Home -1.0 & -1.5 : Away +1.0 & +1.5 35.2% - 64.8% (2.84 - 1.54)
Home -1.0 : Away +1.0 40.2% - 59.8% (2.49 - 1.67)
Home -0.5 & -1.0 : Away +0.5 & +1.0 47.6% - 52.4% (2.10 - 1.91)
Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 55.0% - 45.0% (1.82 - 2.22)
Home 0 & -0.5 : Away 0 & +0.5 65.1% - 34.9% (1.53 - 2.87)
Home 0 : Away 0 75.3% - 24.7% (1.33 - 4.05)
Home 0 & +0.5 : Away 0 & -0.5 78.6% - 21.4% (1.27 - 4.68)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 82.0% - 18.0% (1.22 - 5.56)
Home +0.5 & +1.0 : Away -0.5 & -1.0 87.8% - 12.2% (1.14 - 8.19)
Home +1.0 : Away -1.0 93.6% - 6.4% (1.07 - 15.56)
Home +1.0 & +1.5 : Away -1.0 & -1.5 94.0% - 6.0% (1.06 - 16.59)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 94.4% - 5.6% (1.06 - 17.76)

Goals
over under
0.5 90.9% (1.10) 9.1% (10.97)
1.5 71.1% (1.41) 28.9% (3.46)
2.5 44.7% (2.24) 55.3% (1.81)
3.5 24.1% (4.15) 75.9% (1.32)
4.5 10.6% (9.43) 89.4% (1.12)

Moneyline

1 88.6% (1.13) 11.4% (8.80)
2 60.7% (1.65) 39.3% (2.55)
3 30.3% (3.30) 69.7% (1.44)
4 12.3% (8.16) 87.7% (1.14)

Pick: No bet

FT: 2-2.

Veikkausliiga round 2 / 2009

FC Inter Turku – MyPa

The reigning champions are in big trouble. After last season´s surprise championship they sold three out of their four best players and bought replacements only a couple of weeks ago but it looks like this time they got it wrong. Verino is no Hooiveld (AIK), Ramirez can not tighten the midfield as Chatto (Häcken) and Ari Nyman is hardly a playmaker like Mäkitalo (Haka) was.

Not only that, they have no strikers available at the moment if Grot´s injury is as bad as it looked like, and the star striker Furuholm is already sidelined. Central defender Pertot picked an injury too and right defender Nikkari is suspended after getting a direct red card against MIFK on Monday. Also the captain Henri Lehtonen is doubtful.

The good news for Inter is that they are playing MyPa who are also suffering huge goal- scoring problems and rely heavily on old man Saku Puhakainen up front, as all the other strikers are youngsters, coming from lower divisions and have so far showed nothing.

Last season the matches were drawn 0-0 and 1-1 and something similar is likely to happen also tonight. A clear under in my eyes, one goal is enough to decide the winner.



FC Lahti – KuPs

Poor KuPs have problems in their material, both in quantity and quality. In the first round´s game at HJK they lost three key players due to injury and all our doubtful tonight. On the bench they had one retired defender, a goalie and a couple of u-18 players, who might be starting today.

Lahti welcomes back the local hero Jari Litmanen, and with a home crowd in the opening home game I see no chances for poor KuPs. Last season Lahti won 8-1 and it may not be repeated but surely this is a banker.



MIFK – Fc Honka

Very interesting game as the home side who got some +10 new players in the squad already beat Fc Inter in their opening game, and Honka had to settle to a draw against Lahti. Honka is a top-2 team also this year, but the coach Lehkosuo is too stubborn to field his new recruits Koskimaa and gk. Henrikssson in all the games, and they have not yet really convinced me.

MIFK has the best home crowd and support, but it also helps the away team as the crowd is only happy to gather and make some friendly noise.

Honka is a favourite, but a no bet for me.

HJK – TPS

Head to head is a dangerous approach to Finnish Veikkausliiga, but TPS has always struggled in Helsinki, and this time HJK is also the biggest favourite with huge material for all positions in the field, well central defending is a bit of a problem. TPS have a new coach as they always do and some high expectactions, but their opening game and pre-season have been poor and HJK is a clear favourite. Also the goal expectaction is a bit higher than usual.


Tampere United – FF Jaro

TamU was the biggest favourite before last season after two consecutive championships, but they failed miserably after losing two of their most influential key players. Wiss has retired, but Juska Savolainen is back from Rosenborg and TamU is a serious contender again this year.

FF Jaro relies heavily on the form of striker Mikko Hyyrynen, but he is a bit doubtful because of flu tonight and even that I like the style of Jaro a lot this looks like a home win to me.


JJK – RoPs postponed due to frozen pitch

VPS – Haka 0-1 (0-1) played 22.04.2009, terribly poor performance by VPS who could not create any goal chances when playing almost the whole match 11 vs 10.

Veikkausliiga 23.04.2009 Lahti - KuPs

1x2 % 72.0% - 21.0% - 7.0% (1.39 - 4.76 - 14.29)
Moneyline 91.1% - 8.9% (1.10 - 11.29)
1x 93.0% (1.08)
x2 28.0% (3.57)
12 79.0% (1.27)
goals 2.390 - 0.610

Koti = Home, Vieras = Away

Koti -0.5 : Vieras +0.5 72.0% - 28.0% (1.39 - 3.57)
Koti -1.5 : Vieras +1.5 50.5% - 49.5% (1.98 - 2.02)
Koti -2.5 : Vieras +2.5 29.5% - 70.5% (3.39 - 1.42)
Koti -3.5 : Vieras +3.5 14.4% - 85.6% (6.93 - 1.17)
Koti -4.5 : Vieras +4.5 6.0% - 94.0% (16.65 - 1.06)
Koti +0.5 : Vieras -0.5 93.0% - 7.0% (1.08 - 14.29)


Koti -1.5 : Vieras +1.5 50.5% - 49.5% (1.98 - 2.02)
Koti -1.0 & -1.5 : Vieras +1.0 & +1.5 57.4% - 42.6% (1.74 - 2.35)
Koti -1.0 : Vieras +1.0 64.3% - 35.7% (1.55 - 2.80)
Koti -0.5 & -1.0 : Vieras +0.5 & +1.0 68.2% - 31.8% (1.47 - 3.14)
Koti -0.5 : Vieras +0.5 72.0% - 28.0% (1.39 - 3.57)
Koti 0 & -0.5 : Vieras 0 & +0.5 81.6% - 18.4% (1.23 - 5.42)
Koti 0 : Vieras 0 91.1% - 8.9% (1.10 - 11.24)
Koti 0 & +0.5 : Vieras 0 & -0.5 92.1% - 7.9% (1.09 - 12.58)
Koti +0.5 : Vieras -0.5 93.0% - 7.0% (1.08 - 14.29)

Pick: Lahti -1.5 @ 1.99 SBOBET

FT 1-0. Very bad pitch conditions.

Veikkausliiga 23.04.2009 as asian handicaps; Inter - MyPa

Inter Turku - MyPa

Things are not looking good for Inter at the moment. Poor performance in the opening game, suspensions, new players and injuries. Reigning champions are in trouble, and tonight´s home game looks like a very low-scoring affair.

1x2 % 38.0% - 31.0% - 31.0% (2.63 - 3.23 - 3.23)
Moneyline 55.1% - 44.9% (1.82 - 2.23)
1x 69.0% (1.45)
x2 62.0% (1.61)
12 69.0% (1.45)
goals 1.070 - 0.930

H -0.5 : A +0.5 38.0% - 62.0% (2.63 - 1.61)
H -1.5 : A +1.5 15.2% - 84.8% (6.58 - 1.18)
H +0.5 : A -0.5 69.0% - 31.0% (1.45 - 3.23)
H +1.5 : A -1.5 89.0% - 11.0% (1.12 - 9.09)

H -1.5 : A +1.5 15.2% - 84.8% (6.58 - 1.18)
H -1.0 & -1.5 : A +1.0 & +1.5 17.4% - 82.6% (5.74 - 1.21)
H -1.0 : A +1.0 19.7% - 80.3% (5.08 - 1.24)
H -0.5 & -1.0 : A +0.5 & +1.0 28.8% - 71.2% (3.47 - 1.41)
H -0.5 : A +0.5 38.0% - 62.0% (2.63 - 1.61)
H 0 & -0.5 : A 0 & +0.5 46.6% - 53.4% (2.15 - 1.87)
H 0 : A 0 55.1% - 44.9% (1.81 - 2.23)
H 0 & +0.5 : A 0 & -0.5 62.0% - 38.0% (1.61 - 2.64)
H +0.5 : A -0.5 69.0% - 31.0% (1.45 - 3.23)
H +0.5 & +1.0 : A -0.5 & -1.0 77.6% - 22.4% (1.29 - 4.47)
H +1.0 : A -1.0 86.3% - 13.7% (1.16 - 7.27)
H +1.0 & +1.5 : A -1.0 & -1.5 87.6% - 12.4% (1.14 - 8.08)
H+1.5 : A -1.5 89.0% - 11.0% (1.12 - 9.09)

Pick of the match: under 2.0 goals @ 2.09

SBOBET.

VPS - Haka 22.04.2009 Veikkausliiga

Let´s take a more mathematical approach this time.

1x2 % 32.0% - 32.0% - 36.0% (3.13 - 3.13 - 2.78)

Moneyline 47.1% - 52.9% (2.12 - 1.89)

Double 1x 64.0% (1.56)
Double x2 68.0% (1.47)
Double 12 68.0% (1.47)

1-0 11.2% 8.90 0-0 12.2% 8.21 0-1 12.1% 8.24
2-0 6.0% 16.79 1-1 14.7% 6.79 0-2 6.9% 14.45
2-1 6.8% 14.72 2-2 4.4% 22.48 0-3 2.6% 38.03

Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 32.0% - 68.0% (3.13 - 1.47)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 12.5% - 87.5% (8.03 - 1.14)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 64.0% - 36.0% (1.56 - 2.78)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 85.1% - 14.9% (1.17 - 6.71)

One must remember that last season VPS drew 8 times out of 26 (5 home/3away) a goalless draw and the team has not changed that much. This is the first game of the season for VPS as their first game was postponed, Haka took a surprise away win at TPS quite comfortably.

There are some injuries on both sides but nothing huge.

The pitch at Vaasa is far from green but the match will be played in rather cold conditions.

My prediction, 0-0,1, there is some value in asian handicaps for Haka.

Veikkausliiga first round!

Only 4 games will be played on time due to postponed games at Tampere, Myllykoski and Pietarsaari, and only two of them are played today.

HJK - KuPs will will be an example of how huge is the gap between top-3 and bottom-3 this year in the league. The visitors are also missing a bunch of players and my imagination is not that wild that I could see anything except a thrashing.

Correct score 5-1. Edit: FT 5-1. Easy home win.

TPS will beat Haka in Turku. I am not that enthusiastic about TPS either but Haka can not create goal chances neither score.

Correct score 2-0. Edit: FT 1-2. Poor performance by TPS.

Sunday 19th there is only one match when top-ranked Fc Honka meets Fc Lahti with Jari Litmanen. A huge match for the media, Honka is about 52 % favourite to win this underish-looking game. Prediction for correct score 1-0 a home win anyway. Edit : 2-2. The Lahti equalizer was an own goal by an overwhelmingly poor Koskimaa who is hopefully soon heading to the reserve team. Otherwise very entertaining game and good performance by Honka. Highlights from Honka tv here!

Monday 20th champions Inter Turku travel to Mariehamn, en even and low-scoring match to be expected but in my opinion MIFK should be a slight favourite, maybe 39-31-30.

A home win here too, 1-0 for Mariehamn.

Edit: FT 2-0. Inter was very poor is in big trouble as the performances suck in the early state of the season, but there are a lot of games in the early stages. Inter has no strikers availabale at the moment due injuries.

Veikkausliiga 2009 rankings by media

I hate this, everyone seems to agree about the big picture. Honka, HJK, TamU. Blab-blah. JJK or KuPs or RoPs will get relegated. More blah. And blah.
Everyone seems to agree how the ranking should be, - hell, even I do! We all know now who is in the top-3 and who is going down. Black horses would be most welcome, and I see some potential in FF Jaro and MIFK. Not wanting anyone to get hurt or go seriously bancrupt though a crisis somewhere would be nice. A catasthrope, player´s strike, owners´ getting too much involved in choosing the line-up...

Give me something, well, not fixed games this time.

There are two postponed matches in the first round; Jaro-RoPs and TamU-VPS.

Veikkausliiga 2009 probabilities

As the table below suggests there are two favourites to win the Veikkausliiga 2009 and one to get relegated. It is hardly going to be a two-horse race however as the league has showed to be full of surprises during the years. The reigning champions FC Inter Turku were around 25/1 before the season!

Newly-promoted JJK lacks everything needed in the top flight and is very likely to go down where it belongs, personally I would like to see them keep their place but it is hard to imagine, even if you try.

Veikkausliiga 2009 outright % for win, place and relegation

Adeccoligaen round 2 2009

Time
13.4.2009
My first impression is that there is value only in Moss and Honefoss at 1x2. I take I look at these closer later. Odds from Canbet. Last week´s first lab round brought a tiny profit. (8/8.48)

Edit; I will take Tromsdalen as well, and Kongsvinger. All at 2 pts/units. Nothing else this week as I am busy studuying the Finnish leagues latest news and perfomances and fine-tune the rankings and values. Bets 8 units.

Haugesund 2.16
Kongsvinger 3.07
All Draw 3.20

Honefoss BK 1.75
Nybergsund 4.20
All Draw 3.44

Lov Ham 1.88
Tromsdalen 3.80
All Draw 3.27

Mjondalen IF 3.70
Sogndal 1.90 -0.5
All Draw 3.29

Sarpsborg 08 2.17
Notodden 3.06
All Draw 3.20

Skeid 2.55
Bryne 2.55
All Draw 3.17

Stavanger IF 2.91
Moss 2.23
All Draw 3.24

Veikkausliiga 2009 budgets and transfers

Directly from the League´s media office.
From the link.

There are budgets, change from last year, player budget, number of players, and some economic results and foresights from 2008 and 2009.

Not all the data is 100 % correct however, but it gives you the clue in case you are interested.

Veikkausliiga 2009 ranking and odds

There are many ways to create a ranking. Here is my latest thought about Veikkausliiga 2009.



All of this gets more interesting when we take a look at the odds for being a Champion. Odds from Expekt and Unibet My estimation for HJK to win is 25 %, thus 3.20 would be far from a good bet. Same applies to TamU, Honka, TPs, Inter... is there any team worth betting? JJK 100? Someone at Expekt must be laughing out loud, the chances for a JJK win are none. Not virtually, just plain none.

HJK 3.20
TamU 4.50
Honka 4.50
TPS 8.00
Inter 8.00
MyPa 12.00
Lahti 17.00
Haka 25.00
MIFK 25.00
Jaro 40.00
VPS 75.00
JJK 100.00
RoPs 100.00
KuPs 125.00


Expekt win place

FC Honka 3,75 1,55

HJK 3,75 1,55

TamU 5,50 2,05

TPS 7,00 2,20

Inter 8,00 2,30

Lahti 12,50 3,20

MyPa 14,00 3,60

FC Haka 25,00 5,50

FF Jaro 60,00 15,00

IFK M. 60,00 15,00

VPS 100 25,00

RoPS 150 35,00

JJK 175 40,00

KuPS 200 45,00

Veikkausliiga 2009 is starting next week!

It is time to refresh the memory what happened last year and why.

My ranking for 2008 was like this;

Ranking 2008

A
TamU
HJK
Honka
TPS

BC
Haka
Inter
Lahti
MyPa
MIFK
Jaro

D
RoPS
KuPS

VPS

Goodbye
KooTeePee

And what happened?

1. FC Inter 26 15 9 2 46 12 34 54
2. FC Honka 26 15 5 6 46 23 23 50
3. FC Lahti 26 15 3 8 44 24 20 48
4. HJK 26 14 5 7 47 29 18 47
5. MyPa 26 11 9 6 33 21 12 42
6. TPS 26 12 6 8 45 36 9 42
7. Tampere U 26 9 9 8 41 34 7 36
8. FC Haka 26 10 5 11 31 37 -6 35
9. FF Jaro 26 10 5 11 36 47 -11 35
10. RoPS 26 8 6 12 31 37 -6 30
11. VPS 26 6 11 9 18 29 -11 29
12. IFK Marie 26 7 5 14 24 40 -16 26
13. KuPS 26 4 7 15 26 56 -30 19
14. FC KooTeePee26 1 5 20 14 57 -43 8

A surprise winner. A newcomer for both silver and bronze. Welcome to bet on Veikkausliiga 2009, more news and new rankings soon to be published.

Penalty kick by Daniel Sjölund, Djurgården - Örebro

Video by Expressen.

Sorry about the ads, not my idea.

Adeccoligan 1st round 5.4 - 7.4.2009

The long winter is finally over!

To simplify things I will follow the Adeccoliga by Sportingbet odds and own insights, naturally it is not very wise to have a bet on every single game and one bookie only with flat stakes, but if I want to do it here I can do it because this is my site. To bet at Sportingbet you need to open an account which you can do by clicking the tiny banner on the right, there is also a bonus awaiting!

All estimations are based on my very own observations during the pre-season camp at La Manga, and the ranking I have published here earlier. In the following rounds I will also make use of local reports and all the info available.



Alta v Stavanger 1.75 3.75 3.75
Bryne v Sarpsborg Sparta FK 2.25 3.50 2.70
Kongsvinger v Hamarkameratene 2.75 3.40 2.25 report
Moss v Lov Ham 05/04/2009 1.48 4.333 5.05
NIL-Trysil v Mjondalen 1.727 3.60 4.05
Notodden v Skeid 1.444 4.60 5.20
Tromsdalen v Haugesund 3.00 3.40 2.10
Sogndal v Hønefoss 1.85 3.60 3.50

Adecco 2009 bets 8 units. Results to follow in the commentary section. For the record, personally I see Bryne @ 2.3 as a valuebet at for example Ladbrokes. .

Please note, these are not tips as such; there are better odds elsewhere and it is always advisable to shop around. Valuebets are controlled and followed separately.

Edit: This is not going to be profitable, if it is, it is because on coincidences and kismet. I will follow these only personally, as a lab test about what the result would be based on pre-season seen games only. I expect the ROI to be something around 90 %.