29.6.2014
Best tackle of Sunday
Not in Brazil, but at the studio by the commentator Aki Riihilahti - who is also the chairman of HJK.
http://yle.fi/urheilu/katso_mm-kisastudion_komein_sisaantulo_-_liukutaklauksella_lahetykseen/7327743?fb_action_ids=590938224360630&fb_action_types=og.recommends
http://yle.fi/urheilu/katso_mm-kisastudion_komein_sisaantulo_-_liukutaklauksella_lahetykseen/7327743?fb_action_ids=590938224360630&fb_action_types=og.recommends
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 29.6
AC Kajaani - PK-37 82 12 6
o/u 2.5: 59 41
Yeah, it probably would make sense to skip any big handicaps since lopsided wins seem to be a thing of past. Not much information is available from Kajaani's JBK match, but I suppose it was another Jarmo Korhonen masterpiece of sluggish and hard-fought football. PK-37 choked hard in the first half of their six point game against TP-47 and were unable to claw back in the second. Luckily for them JBK and OLS are also in the same group so there's still some hope left for, but I doubt they'll get anything from AC Kajaani. A low-scoring draw is a distant possibility, a one-goal win for AC Kajaani wouldn't surprise much so perhaps the best option would be the under. The things written on Thursday should still stand even though PK-37's game had three goals, so 3.25 line would be more than welcome.
GBK - PS Kemi 26 22 52
o/u 2.5: 60 40
Kemi took a deserved yet annoyingly slim win against OLS while GBK's long streak of unbeaten finally ended when KPV won them 1-0. Squad quality should be heavily on PS Kemi's side but they've certainly not impressed lately, they do have three wins out of four but all of them came against the worst teams in the league. The odds for PS Kemi are laughably low at 1,80 level and even if I expect GBK to decline sooner or later this looks like a game to skip.
OLS - JBK 40 24 36
o/u 2.5: 52 48
A huge game for both. Team quality is probably quite equal, JBK's performances have likely been better overall but it can't be a total fluke that they're still winless. I've slammed OLS all season long and it's mostly been deserved as watching their version of tiki-taka is almost a form of torture. Like TP-47, OLS schedule is tough but I don't think JBK has done anything to deserve being favorites despite promising performances now and then. Handicap odds are pretty much spot on, under could be an interesting choice if the line happens to be 2.75.
TP-47 - OPS 36 24 40
o/u 2.5: 52 48
I think the wrong team is the favorite here. Like TP-47's preview mentions, this is their third game in six days so OPS is much more rested than them. However, I'm mostly basing my opinion on the overall outlook of the teams. OPS has been able to challenge the best teams in the group while TP-47 has been more or less outplayed by the same teams. Admittedly it is worrying that OPS has very little to show for their good performances as TP-47 is actually ahead of them in the standings, but even so the odds are so juicy for the away team that there's more than enough margin for errors. European bookies have finally started to adjust their odds for unders so value might be tougher to find, 2.75 would still be worth a try if the Asians open it.
FC YPA - KPV 48 23 29
o/u 2.5: 58 42
Odds for both handicap and total look so similar to mine that this doesn't need many words. Very similar quality teams as was predicted by almost everyone in preseason, YPA had a slow start while KPV has been pretty steady throughout season. YPA probably has slightly more proven quality as they had a great last year as opposed to KPV who have had two uninspired seasons after they were relegated from Ykkönen. But as said, value is tough to find with these odds.
(Can't really recommend these as my season has been horrible, but hopefully the previews help someone in making their own decisions. Unders have actually made some profit (tiny sample size though) so if you have the courage to follow those would make sense.)
AC Kajaani - PK-37 U3.25 1,99 3/10 Sbobet
GBK - PS Kemi +0,75 1 54% 2,11 3/10 Sbobet
OLS - JBK U2.75 54% 1,88 2/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - OPS +0,5 2 64% 1,73 6/10 188Bet
TP-47 - OPS U2.75 54% 2,00 2/10 Sbobet
o/u 2.5: 59 41
Yeah, it probably would make sense to skip any big handicaps since lopsided wins seem to be a thing of past. Not much information is available from Kajaani's JBK match, but I suppose it was another Jarmo Korhonen masterpiece of sluggish and hard-fought football. PK-37 choked hard in the first half of their six point game against TP-47 and were unable to claw back in the second. Luckily for them JBK and OLS are also in the same group so there's still some hope left for, but I doubt they'll get anything from AC Kajaani. A low-scoring draw is a distant possibility, a one-goal win for AC Kajaani wouldn't surprise much so perhaps the best option would be the under. The things written on Thursday should still stand even though PK-37's game had three goals, so 3.25 line would be more than welcome.
GBK - PS Kemi 26 22 52
o/u 2.5: 60 40
Kemi took a deserved yet annoyingly slim win against OLS while GBK's long streak of unbeaten finally ended when KPV won them 1-0. Squad quality should be heavily on PS Kemi's side but they've certainly not impressed lately, they do have three wins out of four but all of them came against the worst teams in the league. The odds for PS Kemi are laughably low at 1,80 level and even if I expect GBK to decline sooner or later this looks like a game to skip.
OLS - JBK 40 24 36
o/u 2.5: 52 48
A huge game for both. Team quality is probably quite equal, JBK's performances have likely been better overall but it can't be a total fluke that they're still winless. I've slammed OLS all season long and it's mostly been deserved as watching their version of tiki-taka is almost a form of torture. Like TP-47, OLS schedule is tough but I don't think JBK has done anything to deserve being favorites despite promising performances now and then. Handicap odds are pretty much spot on, under could be an interesting choice if the line happens to be 2.75.
TP-47 - OPS 36 24 40
o/u 2.5: 52 48
I think the wrong team is the favorite here. Like TP-47's preview mentions, this is their third game in six days so OPS is much more rested than them. However, I'm mostly basing my opinion on the overall outlook of the teams. OPS has been able to challenge the best teams in the group while TP-47 has been more or less outplayed by the same teams. Admittedly it is worrying that OPS has very little to show for their good performances as TP-47 is actually ahead of them in the standings, but even so the odds are so juicy for the away team that there's more than enough margin for errors. European bookies have finally started to adjust their odds for unders so value might be tougher to find, 2.75 would still be worth a try if the Asians open it.
FC YPA - KPV 48 23 29
o/u 2.5: 58 42
Odds for both handicap and total look so similar to mine that this doesn't need many words. Very similar quality teams as was predicted by almost everyone in preseason, YPA had a slow start while KPV has been pretty steady throughout season. YPA probably has slightly more proven quality as they had a great last year as opposed to KPV who have had two uninspired seasons after they were relegated from Ykkönen. But as said, value is tough to find with these odds.
(Can't really recommend these as my season has been horrible, but hopefully the previews help someone in making their own decisions. Unders have actually made some profit (tiny sample size though) so if you have the courage to follow those would make sense.)
AC Kajaani - PK-37 U3.25 1,99 3/10 Sbobet
GBK - PS Kemi +0,75 1 54% 2,11 3/10 Sbobet
OLS - JBK U2.75 54% 1,88 2/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - OPS +0,5 2 64% 1,73 6/10 188Bet
TP-47 - OPS U2.75 54% 2,00 2/10 Sbobet
27.6.2014
Video Interview TPS cb Alex De John
http://tpstv.fi/sjk-ennakko-alex-de-john-pysayttamaan-seinajokelaisia/
Veikkausliiga odds for June 27th
| Finland : Veikkausliiga - Odds From 188bet.com | ||||||||||
| Time GMT+0 | Betting event | Current | Open | Total Line | Over/Under | |||||
| spread | odds | spread | odds | current | open | type | current | open | ||
| Finland : Veikkausliiga - 27/06/2014 | ||||||||||
16:30  | FC Lahti | -0.75 | 2.090 | -0.75 | 2.070 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 1.950 | 1.980 |
| KuPS | +0.75 | 1.830 | +0.75 | 1.850 | under | 1.950 | 1.920 | |||
 | ||||||||||
| 16:30 | FF Jaro | -0.5 | 1.990 | -0.5 | 2.010 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 2.020 | 2.140 |
| RoPS Rovaniemi | +0.5 | 1.930 | +0.5 | 1.910 | under | 1.880 | 1.770 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Honka Espoo | 0 | 1.890 | 0 | 1.900 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 1.940 | 1.930 |
| Inter Turku | 0 | 2.030 | 0 | 2.020 | under | 1.960 | 1.970 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | IFK Mariehamn | +0.75 | 2.050 | +0.75 | 2.070 | 2.75 | 2.5 | over | 1.930 | 1.820 |
| HJK Helsinki | -0.75 | 1.870 | -0.75 | 1.850 | under | 1.970 | 2.080 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | VPS Vaasa | -0.25 | 2.120 | -0.25 | 2.000 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 2.130 | 2.050 |
| MyPa | +0.25 | 1.810 | +0.25 | 1.920 | under | 1.780 | 1.850 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 17:30 | TPS Turku | +0.25 | 1.810 | +0.25 | 2.040 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 2.050 | 2.030 |
| SJK Seinajoki | -0.25 | 2.120 | -0.25 | 1.880 | under | 1.850 | 1.870 | |||
For possible picks try out ftfinland.blogabet.com. All the history of this season is there to be seen. Super offer for this weekend is € 25 per 30 days.
26.6.2014
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.6
OPS - FC YPA 33 22 45
o/u 2.5: 58 42
OPS managed to challenge a good team again when they lost to AC Kajaani with a last minute goal. YPA had looked unbeatable for a few weeks and all things were in place for a yet another win, but an uninspired performance was followed by a 1-2 loss to GBK so it's interesting to see how they'll respond. Last year, once the impressive starting streak ran out of its steam YPA disintegrated completely as the losses started to mount up. As has likely been said multiple times in earlier previews, OPS is a bit difficult to predict as they sort of manage to play to their opponents level. If the pattern holds up and they're up to this game then +0,5 would be worth it (e: or not, the odds are too low at the moment). However, there's always the live option (I'll leave the total there) and I'd much prefer to see whether OPS gk Koponen is fit as his replacement Keskinen has not been that impressive in the games I've seen.
KPV - GBK 44 23 33
o/u 2.5: 57 43
Both teams are in solid form, in KPV's case it should be expected as they possess a better than average team for this level. However, GBK's long unbeaten streak and consecutively their 4. position is probably the biggest surprise of this season as the visitors did not sign any high impact players after last year's largely disappointing season, the preseason did not have any great results either. GBK lost another key man to injury in YPA game as Roiko went down early, but they were still able to come up with a win. This is not a game I'm eager to get involved with, but if I had to choose something it would GBK +0,5 (e: +0,25 not as interesting) as they just keep defying expectations so why not see how long their flight lasts. Total is a complete lottery, I'd veer towards under but the odds are pretty spot on currently.
JBK - AC Kajaani 17 20 63
o/u 2.5: 58 42
JBK continued their good yet not win-worthy performances as they drew with KPV while AC Kajaani pulled out a tight win against OPS. JBK does certainly seem to have the capacity to bother even the best teams but an actual win looks really far fetched today since AC Kajaani has not really had any big missteps this year. The visitors are not exactly winning any style points (which I suppose is expected considering who their coach is) but the bottom line is that they have only loss against then red hot FC YPA. The odds for AC Kajaani do not raise much interest and unless the line is less than -1 I don't think it's worth the bother since Kajaani's style does not seem to lend itself to blowout wins. Euro odds for total suggest that 3.0 line is a possibility, and if so the under seems like an obvious choice. JBK has been one of the few positive teams (both statistically and what I've seen) this year if you like goals, but even their record is really lousy compared to usual over teams in the years past. And don't even get started with AC Kajaani and their coach..
PS Kemi - OLS 83 12 5
o/u 2.5: 64 36
Kemi is more rested now and they'll likely be able to field a better squad than in their previous games where they had some injury troubles. OLS did actually have a pretty good game against TP-47, though I suspect much of that was due to TP's poor display. There were more goalscoring chances than usual so that's a plus, but getting anything from Kemi looks like a insurmountable task assuming PS Kemi is near full strength in player front. The eurobookie odds, namely EH -1, look promising even when keeping in mind the low-scoring season we're having. That said, I'd be interested in the line-ups to see who exactly PS Kemi is still missing. Total is a very likely skip, Kemi's defense is not their strongest point but I don't think OLS will be able to cause them any trouble. Expecting PS Kemi to come up with three or four goals themselves is a bit too much to ask because defensively OLS hasn't been that bad (when you hold the possession you don't usually concede that much).
PK-37 - TP-47 23 23 54
o/u 2.5: 50 50
Looking back to Monday it was a mistake to trust TP-47 as they did not look like a good, or even average, team at all. The fact that they were able to play more than half of the game with one man-advantage with very little show was also worrisome, so I'm not particularly surprised that their win total is still at 1. PK-37's latest performances have been very respectable, defending is still mostly what they do but they've managed to find the net too. But make no mistake, TP-47 is the better team here and PK-37 is weakened by the suspension of first choice gk Kosonen. However, as it's all about the odds PK-37 might still be interesting with a +0,75 handicap because I don't think the difference is as big as the current odds indicate. This game has under written all over it (neither can score, pretty good defenses) so I'm frankly surprised that we're seeing 2,40 level odds for under 2.5, hopefully the Asians will open it at 2.75 or 3.0.
JBK - AC Kajaani U3.0 55% 1,92 1,5/10 188Bet
JBK - AC Kajaani -0,75 2 58% 1,88 6/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - OLS -1,5 1 62% 1,73 6/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - TP-47 U2.75 56% 2,01 3/10 188Bet
o/u 2.5: 58 42
OPS managed to challenge a good team again when they lost to AC Kajaani with a last minute goal. YPA had looked unbeatable for a few weeks and all things were in place for a yet another win, but an uninspired performance was followed by a 1-2 loss to GBK so it's interesting to see how they'll respond. Last year, once the impressive starting streak ran out of its steam YPA disintegrated completely as the losses started to mount up. As has likely been said multiple times in earlier previews, OPS is a bit difficult to predict as they sort of manage to play to their opponents level. If the pattern holds up and they're up to this game then +0,5 would be worth it (e: or not, the odds are too low at the moment). However, there's always the live option (I'll leave the total there) and I'd much prefer to see whether OPS gk Koponen is fit as his replacement Keskinen has not been that impressive in the games I've seen.
KPV - GBK 44 23 33
o/u 2.5: 57 43
Both teams are in solid form, in KPV's case it should be expected as they possess a better than average team for this level. However, GBK's long unbeaten streak and consecutively their 4. position is probably the biggest surprise of this season as the visitors did not sign any high impact players after last year's largely disappointing season, the preseason did not have any great results either. GBK lost another key man to injury in YPA game as Roiko went down early, but they were still able to come up with a win. This is not a game I'm eager to get involved with, but if I had to choose something it would GBK +0,5 (e: +0,25 not as interesting) as they just keep defying expectations so why not see how long their flight lasts. Total is a complete lottery, I'd veer towards under but the odds are pretty spot on currently.
JBK - AC Kajaani 17 20 63
o/u 2.5: 58 42
JBK continued their good yet not win-worthy performances as they drew with KPV while AC Kajaani pulled out a tight win against OPS. JBK does certainly seem to have the capacity to bother even the best teams but an actual win looks really far fetched today since AC Kajaani has not really had any big missteps this year. The visitors are not exactly winning any style points (which I suppose is expected considering who their coach is) but the bottom line is that they have only loss against then red hot FC YPA. The odds for AC Kajaani do not raise much interest and unless the line is less than -1 I don't think it's worth the bother since Kajaani's style does not seem to lend itself to blowout wins. Euro odds for total suggest that 3.0 line is a possibility, and if so the under seems like an obvious choice. JBK has been one of the few positive teams (both statistically and what I've seen) this year if you like goals, but even their record is really lousy compared to usual over teams in the years past. And don't even get started with AC Kajaani and their coach..
PS Kemi - OLS 83 12 5
o/u 2.5: 64 36
Kemi is more rested now and they'll likely be able to field a better squad than in their previous games where they had some injury troubles. OLS did actually have a pretty good game against TP-47, though I suspect much of that was due to TP's poor display. There were more goalscoring chances than usual so that's a plus, but getting anything from Kemi looks like a insurmountable task assuming PS Kemi is near full strength in player front. The eurobookie odds, namely EH -1, look promising even when keeping in mind the low-scoring season we're having. That said, I'd be interested in the line-ups to see who exactly PS Kemi is still missing. Total is a very likely skip, Kemi's defense is not their strongest point but I don't think OLS will be able to cause them any trouble. Expecting PS Kemi to come up with three or four goals themselves is a bit too much to ask because defensively OLS hasn't been that bad (when you hold the possession you don't usually concede that much).
PK-37 - TP-47 23 23 54
o/u 2.5: 50 50
Looking back to Monday it was a mistake to trust TP-47 as they did not look like a good, or even average, team at all. The fact that they were able to play more than half of the game with one man-advantage with very little show was also worrisome, so I'm not particularly surprised that their win total is still at 1. PK-37's latest performances have been very respectable, defending is still mostly what they do but they've managed to find the net too. But make no mistake, TP-47 is the better team here and PK-37 is weakened by the suspension of first choice gk Kosonen. However, as it's all about the odds PK-37 might still be interesting with a +0,75 handicap because I don't think the difference is as big as the current odds indicate. This game has under written all over it (neither can score, pretty good defenses) so I'm frankly surprised that we're seeing 2,40 level odds for under 2.5, hopefully the Asians will open it at 2.75 or 3.0.
JBK - AC Kajaani U3.0 55% 1,92 1,5/10 188Bet
JBK - AC Kajaani -0,75 2 58% 1,88 6/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - OLS -1,5 1 62% 1,73 6/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - TP-47 U2.75 56% 2,01 3/10 188Bet
23.6.2014
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 23.6
OLS - TP-47 27 23 50
o/u 2.5: 53 47
The poor form of OLS continued against AC Kajaani so that makes it around six games that they've looked pretty poor in. Or actually, the whole season has been a nightmare and there doesn't seem to be any things going on that would indicate that their form will improve anytime soon. TP-47 has also been a disappointment, but if we're nitpicking they've played so many draws that I'd say their record is a bit misleading as they could easily have a few points more. Another thing worth pointing out is their tough schedule recently as they've faced all the top-5 teams (if we don't count JBK game). Anyway, this is mostly a bet against OLS because if the hosts don't have a complete turn of form then a draw is the maximum I could see them taking today. OLS' struggles with scoring have been well documented, while their defense has kept the numbers respectable in most games. TP-47 isn't doing much better either, as they've gone scoreless in four games a row, not to mention that in the whole season they've only had two games that went over 2.5. Under at 3.0 line is an obvious choice. OLS still misses Mahlakaarto, who has been out for the whole season. TP-47 regular starter and also a key player Badji is out. e: couple of OLS starting strikers on the bench too.
OLS - TP-47 -0,25 2 56,5% 1,89 5/10 188Bet
OLS - TP-47 U3.0 60% 1,85 3/10 188Bet
o/u 2.5: 53 47
The poor form of OLS continued against AC Kajaani so that makes it around six games that they've looked pretty poor in. Or actually, the whole season has been a nightmare and there doesn't seem to be any things going on that would indicate that their form will improve anytime soon. TP-47 has also been a disappointment, but if we're nitpicking they've played so many draws that I'd say their record is a bit misleading as they could easily have a few points more. Another thing worth pointing out is their tough schedule recently as they've faced all the top-5 teams (if we don't count JBK game). Anyway, this is mostly a bet against OLS because if the hosts don't have a complete turn of form then a draw is the maximum I could see them taking today. OLS' struggles with scoring have been well documented, while their defense has kept the numbers respectable in most games. TP-47 isn't doing much better either, as they've gone scoreless in four games a row, not to mention that in the whole season they've only had two games that went over 2.5. Under at 3.0 line is an obvious choice. OLS still misses Mahlakaarto, who has been out for the whole season. TP-47 regular starter and also a key player Badji is out. e: couple of OLS starting strikers on the bench too.
OLS - TP-47 -0,25 2 56,5% 1,89 5/10 188Bet
OLS - TP-47 U3.0 60% 1,85 3/10 188Bet
19.6.2014
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 19.6
KPV - JBK 63 20 17
o/u 2.5: 58 42
Tough to find any value in the handicap, under could be worth a try in totals. KPV took a deserved win last week vs TP-47, though the home team report paints a wholly different picture of the game. The home team's form has been a bit better than average in the last few rounds, however, overall their season has been pretty average considering that they were predicted to be a couple of positions higher. Still, they've lost only twice against two top teams AC Kajaani and PS Kemi, and the only really poor results have been the opening round draw against JBK and the inexcusable nil-nil in PK-37 game. JBK's season has been a lot like these previews, there are some good things but ultimately only the results matter and in JBK's case too they've been just awful. I don't think anyone expects them to seriously challenge Tervarit 2013, who had six draws and 21 losses, but until they start bringing some tangible results they're not the most appealing betting option. Last week against GBK the numbers were yet again lying according to the reports, this time they self-destructed by scoring an own goal and getting a red card, both by the same guy. KPV is obviously the better team here, but if there's one thing that has been learnt this season it's that the class differences are not as big as in some other years, so KPV 70 %? Nope. Former IFK Mariehamn guy Jokihaara is out from KPV, JBK is a mystery as usual.
o/u 2.5: 58 42
Tough to find any value in the handicap, under could be worth a try in totals. KPV took a deserved win last week vs TP-47, though the home team report paints a wholly different picture of the game. The home team's form has been a bit better than average in the last few rounds, however, overall their season has been pretty average considering that they were predicted to be a couple of positions higher. Still, they've lost only twice against two top teams AC Kajaani and PS Kemi, and the only really poor results have been the opening round draw against JBK and the inexcusable nil-nil in PK-37 game. JBK's season has been a lot like these previews, there are some good things but ultimately only the results matter and in JBK's case too they've been just awful. I don't think anyone expects them to seriously challenge Tervarit 2013, who had six draws and 21 losses, but until they start bringing some tangible results they're not the most appealing betting option. Last week against GBK the numbers were yet again lying according to the reports, this time they self-destructed by scoring an own goal and getting a red card, both by the same guy. KPV is obviously the better team here, but if there's one thing that has been learnt this season it's that the class differences are not as big as in some other years, so KPV 70 %? Nope. Former IFK Mariehamn guy Jokihaara is out from KPV, JBK is a mystery as usual.
18.6.2014
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 18.6
One of the best, if not the best, keeper in whole Kakkonen, Koponen is on the bench for OPS. Also important defender Richardson is not starting either, so I'll settle for just a small bet on the visitors. Line-ups favor YPA as Smith is still missing from GBK and YPA's questionable players are starting.
Every game looks quite low scoring, so again blindly playing unders could be a viable strategy as has been the case whole season.
AC Kajaani - OPS +1 54% 1,99 2/10 188Bet
FC YPA - GBK -1 53% 2,01 4/10 Sbobet
AC Kajaani - OPS 59 21 20
o/u 2.5: 58 42
The enigmatic form of OPS continued last week when they drew with PK-37. They've proven that they can compete with the best of teams but on the other hand there has been practically an equal amount of humiliating blunders. Outside finishing, there wasn't much much wrong with their performance against PK-37 as they were not in much trouble of conceding until late second half. AC Kajaani took a routine win against OLS last week. ACK is the better team here but the odds for the home win are so low that I don't think there's any value to be found in that. A +1 line may very well be available, and for all their troubles OPS has only lost once by more than 1 goal, and overall they've conceded more than one just twice so far. AC Kajaani hasn't administered many brutal thrashings as they've mostly relied on their defense, which has conceded a league low 4 goals in 9 games.
FC YPA - GBK 64 20 16
o/u 2.5: 59 41
YPA might not be as exciting as they were last year, but at the moment their defense is so strong that they probably won't mind if their scoring is not on last year's level. GBK is also riding high, which is quite impressive considering that they've had some injury worries. YPA definitely has the advantage in player quality and they've handled better teams than GBK recently so in that sense -0,75 would be more than welcome. In the mental rankings I'm still keeping GBK in the middle table which could be an underestimation. However, I'll repeat the sentiments from JBK game, which GBK did win, but were again slightly lucky to get a favorable result.
PK-37 - PS Kemi 12 17 71
o/u 2.5: 60 40
PS Kemi's suspect form continued last week when they lost to YPA. The reports are slightly conflicting but it seems like they were a little bit unlucky in that game, but that doesn't change the fact that they're not at their best right now. Some of that can be attributed to injuries and for this game the situation in that front does not look to be any better. PK-37 was like OLS with extra emphasis on defending, or in other words they looked like a really terrible team. Kosonen had a magnificent game, and they'll need his miracle saves again since PS Kemi is far ahead of them in every part of the field except goalkeepers. That said I have enough respect for PK-37's defensive abilities that the 1,30 type of odds for the visitors are really not worth it.
Every game looks quite low scoring, so again blindly playing unders could be a viable strategy as has been the case whole season.
AC Kajaani - OPS +1 54% 1,99 2/10 188Bet
FC YPA - GBK -1 53% 2,01 4/10 Sbobet
AC Kajaani - OPS 59 21 20
o/u 2.5: 58 42
The enigmatic form of OPS continued last week when they drew with PK-37. They've proven that they can compete with the best of teams but on the other hand there has been practically an equal amount of humiliating blunders. Outside finishing, there wasn't much much wrong with their performance against PK-37 as they were not in much trouble of conceding until late second half. AC Kajaani took a routine win against OLS last week. ACK is the better team here but the odds for the home win are so low that I don't think there's any value to be found in that. A +1 line may very well be available, and for all their troubles OPS has only lost once by more than 1 goal, and overall they've conceded more than one just twice so far. AC Kajaani hasn't administered many brutal thrashings as they've mostly relied on their defense, which has conceded a league low 4 goals in 9 games.
FC YPA - GBK 64 20 16
o/u 2.5: 59 41
YPA might not be as exciting as they were last year, but at the moment their defense is so strong that they probably won't mind if their scoring is not on last year's level. GBK is also riding high, which is quite impressive considering that they've had some injury worries. YPA definitely has the advantage in player quality and they've handled better teams than GBK recently so in that sense -0,75 would be more than welcome. In the mental rankings I'm still keeping GBK in the middle table which could be an underestimation. However, I'll repeat the sentiments from JBK game, which GBK did win, but were again slightly lucky to get a favorable result.
PK-37 - PS Kemi 12 17 71
o/u 2.5: 60 40
PS Kemi's suspect form continued last week when they lost to YPA. The reports are slightly conflicting but it seems like they were a little bit unlucky in that game, but that doesn't change the fact that they're not at their best right now. Some of that can be attributed to injuries and for this game the situation in that front does not look to be any better. PK-37 was like OLS with extra emphasis on defending, or in other words they looked like a really terrible team. Kosonen had a magnificent game, and they'll need his miracle saves again since PS Kemi is far ahead of them in every part of the field except goalkeepers. That said I have enough respect for PK-37's defensive abilities that the 1,30 type of odds for the visitors are really not worth it.
15.6.2014
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 15.6
Shedload of games today, so only brief notes for each as Japan-Ivory Coast took its toll. As usual, betting oriented commentary will be provided for OPS-PK-37, AC Kajaani-OLS will be streamed live at http://ackajaani.fi/livestream/.
AC Kajaani - OLS 83 12 5
o/u 2.5: 63 37
Same story continued for OLS in GBK game. It looks like Mahlakaarto's return will be the next best hope for solving their offensive woes but that won't happen today so expect them to be held goalless again. AC Kajaani has had some weak moments this season, such as GBK draw a week ago, but overall they're naturally classes above OLS so the only thing holding me back is the strong OLS defense and the visitors style of play which might easily mean only a one goal victory for the hosts.
OPS - PK-37 78 14 8
o/u 2.5: 60 40
It looked like there might have been a chance for a OPS bet as the odds for them were quite high in eurobookies, but it goes without saying that -1,5 is not an appealing option. PK-37's defense has been tight recently and OPS offense lacks quality so I will prefer to wait until live to see whether OPS is worth a try (could be the other way too). I'll place something on the under as both teams lean that way and the line is very high at 3.2.
FC YPA - PS Kemi 39 22 39
o/u 2.5: 63 37
This has suddenly turned into a top clash as YPA is riding a four game winning streak while PS Kemi has had some struggles recently both with injuries and their form. Both teams have plenty of questionmarks in their line-ups so the estimation might swing either way after the line-ups are published. However, it's awfully tough to find any value in the -0,25 for the hosts, which is practically a zero handicap with the odds so low for PS Kemi. PS Kemi is probably slightly stronger team overall if we look at the picture of whole season and squad lists, but as said the odds are pretty much dead on. Total doesn't raise much interest either, my hunch is on under and since the line is as high as 3.0 I wouldn't oppose anyone for trying that considering the low scoring season we've had.
TP-47 - KPV 38 23 39
o/u 2.5: 56 44
A very similar game to the one above. KPV has slightly more quality than the hosts and they're also playing a little bit better than TP-47 right now. However, the margins are so narrow that no value is found on the current odds. Both teams have not lit the nets while at the same time have not conceded many goals either, so the under 2.75 might hold some value on a hunch level.
GBK - JBK 55 21 24
o/u 2.5: 62 38
1,80 level odds for GBK might seem interesting at first glance but bookies do know it too that JBK is not as bad as their record looks. They've been competitive in every game they've played and should have deserved more points than the lousy four they currently have. GBK looked pretty average against OLS but even that is more than enough nowadays to beat OLS. In total, GBK has actually gone unbeaten for a month now. However, OPS, TP-47 and AC Kajaani games were not that good performances if the reports are to be believed so that's another explanation for the high GBK odds. I won't argue against the notion that GBK is the better side here, but since this is a late game there's no need to put any bets up now. If JBK were to get some Jaro guys to help JBK +0,5 could be a very tiny bet. A more interesting option would be over 2.75. We have JBK, who is already been involved in some high-scoring games (average of 3 goals per game is high this year, that's how far we've fallen) and judging by the reports and my own eyes they don't back down against anyone in terms of playing style. I admit the logic for the over ends somewhat in GBK, so I'll take another look at the total closer to the kick-off..
AC Kajaani - OLS -1,75 1 58% 1,80 5/10 Sbobet
OPS - PK-37 U3.25 58% 1,95 2/10 Sbobet
AC Kajaani - OLS 83 12 5
o/u 2.5: 63 37
Same story continued for OLS in GBK game. It looks like Mahlakaarto's return will be the next best hope for solving their offensive woes but that won't happen today so expect them to be held goalless again. AC Kajaani has had some weak moments this season, such as GBK draw a week ago, but overall they're naturally classes above OLS so the only thing holding me back is the strong OLS defense and the visitors style of play which might easily mean only a one goal victory for the hosts.
OPS - PK-37 78 14 8
o/u 2.5: 60 40
It looked like there might have been a chance for a OPS bet as the odds for them were quite high in eurobookies, but it goes without saying that -1,5 is not an appealing option. PK-37's defense has been tight recently and OPS offense lacks quality so I will prefer to wait until live to see whether OPS is worth a try (could be the other way too). I'll place something on the under as both teams lean that way and the line is very high at 3.2.
FC YPA - PS Kemi 39 22 39
o/u 2.5: 63 37
This has suddenly turned into a top clash as YPA is riding a four game winning streak while PS Kemi has had some struggles recently both with injuries and their form. Both teams have plenty of questionmarks in their line-ups so the estimation might swing either way after the line-ups are published. However, it's awfully tough to find any value in the -0,25 for the hosts, which is practically a zero handicap with the odds so low for PS Kemi. PS Kemi is probably slightly stronger team overall if we look at the picture of whole season and squad lists, but as said the odds are pretty much dead on. Total doesn't raise much interest either, my hunch is on under and since the line is as high as 3.0 I wouldn't oppose anyone for trying that considering the low scoring season we've had.
TP-47 - KPV 38 23 39
o/u 2.5: 56 44
A very similar game to the one above. KPV has slightly more quality than the hosts and they're also playing a little bit better than TP-47 right now. However, the margins are so narrow that no value is found on the current odds. Both teams have not lit the nets while at the same time have not conceded many goals either, so the under 2.75 might hold some value on a hunch level.
GBK - JBK 55 21 24
o/u 2.5: 62 38
1,80 level odds for GBK might seem interesting at first glance but bookies do know it too that JBK is not as bad as their record looks. They've been competitive in every game they've played and should have deserved more points than the lousy four they currently have. GBK looked pretty average against OLS but even that is more than enough nowadays to beat OLS. In total, GBK has actually gone unbeaten for a month now. However, OPS, TP-47 and AC Kajaani games were not that good performances if the reports are to be believed so that's another explanation for the high GBK odds. I won't argue against the notion that GBK is the better side here, but since this is a late game there's no need to put any bets up now. If JBK were to get some Jaro guys to help JBK +0,5 could be a very tiny bet. A more interesting option would be over 2.75. We have JBK, who is already been involved in some high-scoring games (average of 3 goals per game is high this year, that's how far we've fallen) and judging by the reports and my own eyes they don't back down against anyone in terms of playing style. I admit the logic for the over ends somewhat in GBK, so I'll take another look at the total closer to the kick-off..
AC Kajaani - OLS -1,75 1 58% 1,80 5/10 Sbobet
OPS - PK-37 U3.25 58% 1,95 2/10 Sbobet
13.6.2014
Pick of the day
The recent matches and thus form lie quite a lot about the class today and odds try to go towards PK-35 all the time as people just look at the table and latest results, not the class and team news.
PK-35 have been beating up the bottom thrash lately, but they can not handle the absence of top df & top striker today vs the biggest - although underperformed promotion candidate of the season.
Haka -0.75 @ 2.27. Thank you.
PK-35 have been beating up the bottom thrash lately, but they can not handle the absence of top df & top striker today vs the biggest - although underperformed promotion candidate of the season.
Haka -0.75 @ 2.27. Thank you.
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