30.7.2013
Veikkausliiga highlights
Here.
Updates from Monday´s two games MIFK vs TPS & RoPS vs MyPa.
TPS continue playing without using midfield at all, RoPS scored - as expected - from a corner and that was enough for a winner.
Updates from Monday´s two games MIFK vs TPS & RoPS vs MyPa.
TPS continue playing without using midfield at all, RoPS scored - as expected - from a corner and that was enough for a winner.
28.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 28.7
Tervarit - FC YPA 10 13 77
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Live update on either Twitter or Puntteri's halftime newsletter. PS Kemi managed to gloriously screw-up their game yesterday, but since YPA's squad is extremely narrow I'd say this is a much more difficult game to predict than that. Tervarit has picked up a couple scrappy draws and at least defense has improved considerably in the last few games, goalscoring is still a huge problem for them as they have zero quality upfront now that Ogbuefi is playing elsewhere. YPA's form has dipped slightly lately and they're still weakened by suspensions, this time from each part of the field (Junno, Morrisson-Derbyshire and Akmetkhanov). The questionable players (Colovic and Pejic) should be able to play, and since they will still have almost all of their key attacking players available the player situation isn't that bad after all considering who they're facing. However, the reality is that the odds are so miniscule for the away team that any pregame bets for YPA are out of question, and in fact something like Tervarit +2 could actually be the more attractive option. Total is also something that I'd prefer to leave for live betting, Tervarit has been able to keep the numbers respectable lately but then again the opponents have been much weaker than YPA so this will provide a much stiffer test for them. With the current odds I'd lean towards the under, last week's ORP-GBK was actually quite a similar type of match and the line was only 3.0 so the current European odds (3.5 and about even) don't raise much interest for me.
TP-47 - Kerho 07 52 20 28
o/u 2.5: 68 32
How about no. Both teams are struggling, Bobb left TP-47 and they have other missings too, Kerho 07 line-up is always a mystery, so it's tough to find a more unappealing game than this. TP-47 has been very draw-happy and mediocre lately, which in betting terms is never a good thing, and on the other side Kerho 07 hasn't won a proper team since middle of May but they have been fairly competitive most of the time. I'll give TP-47 a small edge as they have at least won a few games more than Kerho 07 in the past couple of months, but truthfully the difference seems to be quite small which is perhaps best evidenced by the same type of draws in Tervarit games. Total is equally a complete crapshoot, I'd assume the relatively low scoring games for both teams recently are mostly due to the ineffective form rather than them suddenly adopting JIPPO tactics but interpreting heavily biased match reports is always tough so I'd prefet to skip the total too. TP-47 loses a big chunk of offensive power in Bobb and Huusko & Badji have by my understanding been important parts of their offense also. Kerho 07 could get Caumo back from SJK which would help a lot, both previews talk about plenty of youngsters being on the field today but that doesn't really help total betting as that could go easily the either way.
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Live update on either Twitter or Puntteri's halftime newsletter. PS Kemi managed to gloriously screw-up their game yesterday, but since YPA's squad is extremely narrow I'd say this is a much more difficult game to predict than that. Tervarit has picked up a couple scrappy draws and at least defense has improved considerably in the last few games, goalscoring is still a huge problem for them as they have zero quality upfront now that Ogbuefi is playing elsewhere. YPA's form has dipped slightly lately and they're still weakened by suspensions, this time from each part of the field (Junno, Morrisson-Derbyshire and Akmetkhanov). The questionable players (Colovic and Pejic) should be able to play, and since they will still have almost all of their key attacking players available the player situation isn't that bad after all considering who they're facing. However, the reality is that the odds are so miniscule for the away team that any pregame bets for YPA are out of question, and in fact something like Tervarit +2 could actually be the more attractive option. Total is also something that I'd prefer to leave for live betting, Tervarit has been able to keep the numbers respectable lately but then again the opponents have been much weaker than YPA so this will provide a much stiffer test for them. With the current odds I'd lean towards the under, last week's ORP-GBK was actually quite a similar type of match and the line was only 3.0 so the current European odds (3.5 and about even) don't raise much interest for me.
TP-47 - Kerho 07 52 20 28
o/u 2.5: 68 32
How about no. Both teams are struggling, Bobb left TP-47 and they have other missings too, Kerho 07 line-up is always a mystery, so it's tough to find a more unappealing game than this. TP-47 has been very draw-happy and mediocre lately, which in betting terms is never a good thing, and on the other side Kerho 07 hasn't won a proper team since middle of May but they have been fairly competitive most of the time. I'll give TP-47 a small edge as they have at least won a few games more than Kerho 07 in the past couple of months, but truthfully the difference seems to be quite small which is perhaps best evidenced by the same type of draws in Tervarit games. Total is equally a complete crapshoot, I'd assume the relatively low scoring games for both teams recently are mostly due to the ineffective form rather than them suddenly adopting JIPPO tactics but interpreting heavily biased match reports is always tough so I'd prefet to skip the total too. TP-47 loses a big chunk of offensive power in Bobb and Huusko & Badji have by my understanding been important parts of their offense also. Kerho 07 could get Caumo back from SJK which would help a lot, both previews talk about plenty of youngsters being on the field today but that doesn't really help total betting as that could go easily the either way.
27.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 27.7
PS Kemi - ORP -2,25 1 64,5% 1,75 8/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - ORPa 91 6 3
o/u 2.5: 78 22
PS Kemi convincingly beat YPA on Wednesday so it's safe to say they're the best team in the group right now, however, just like for FC YPA, couple of injuries or suspensions to their key players could easily derail PS Kemi's season. ORP hung tough against GBK, but a draw would have been the maximum result for them as they were only able to create one good chance. One of the few players who has proved that he can do something offensively, Karjalainen, was injured in GBK game, so if he's still out their attack outlook looks pretty grim. Like the table tells, the class difference is huge, and thus the only interesting thing in betting terms is how many goals will PS Kemi bother to score. Fatigue could also play a role as this is Kemi's third game in a week, same goes for mental stuff aswell: after a top match, will the intensity level be as good when the opposing team is as uninspiring as ORP? Regardless, Kemi's coaching has been much praised and at home they're still almost unbeatable, so even a -2,75 line would be worth a small try. The total is obviously closely linked to estimating Kemi's interest mostly because ORP really sucks in goalscoring department. Apart from last week's GBK game, good teams have usually scored a few in ORP's net so I'm not too worried about ORP having some low-scoring games recently. Kemi picked up an annoying under in the YPA match, but even without sour grapes it wasn't a bad bet in hindsight especially with the 2.75 line. PS Kemi's three goal streak at home is still running in twenties, but of course the line will almost certainly be at least 3.5 so that would be just a small bet, with maybe more in live in case the line changes quickly.
PS Kemi - ORPa 91 6 3
o/u 2.5: 78 22
PS Kemi convincingly beat YPA on Wednesday so it's safe to say they're the best team in the group right now, however, just like for FC YPA, couple of injuries or suspensions to their key players could easily derail PS Kemi's season. ORP hung tough against GBK, but a draw would have been the maximum result for them as they were only able to create one good chance. One of the few players who has proved that he can do something offensively, Karjalainen, was injured in GBK game, so if he's still out their attack outlook looks pretty grim. Like the table tells, the class difference is huge, and thus the only interesting thing in betting terms is how many goals will PS Kemi bother to score. Fatigue could also play a role as this is Kemi's third game in a week, same goes for mental stuff aswell: after a top match, will the intensity level be as good when the opposing team is as uninspiring as ORP? Regardless, Kemi's coaching has been much praised and at home they're still almost unbeatable, so even a -2,75 line would be worth a small try. The total is obviously closely linked to estimating Kemi's interest mostly because ORP really sucks in goalscoring department. Apart from last week's GBK game, good teams have usually scored a few in ORP's net so I'm not too worried about ORP having some low-scoring games recently. Kemi picked up an annoying under in the YPA match, but even without sour grapes it wasn't a bad bet in hindsight especially with the 2.75 line. PS Kemi's three goal streak at home is still running in twenties, but of course the line will almost certainly be at least 3.5 so that would be just a small bet, with maybe more in live in case the line changes quickly.
24.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen & AC Oulu-OPS
FC YPA - PS Kemi O2.75 71% 1,81 10/10 Sbobet (O3.0 67 %)
FC YPA - PS Kemi 44 20 36
o/u 2.5: 74 26
To say that both teams struggled a lot last weekend would be an understatement of the week, or how does it sound to have to come back in an away game from 2-0 down with a very depleted squad or having to survive this in the last minute? The fact that YPA and Kemi both won is probably a good example why they're placed 1st and 2nd as lesser teams would have likely crumbled to a draw in those kind of circumstances. With current European odds I'd be tempted to put something on PS Kemi, but knowing the line-ups would be quite important before making any decisions. PS Kemi missed plenty of regular starters from PK-37 match, including their first choice gk Vilmunen, Ions, midfield enforcer Pätsi and Pasher (8 goals and many assists too). YPA does get their important defender Morrison-Derbyshire back, but topscorer Pejic is suspended. Also, two regular starters from defense, Pakola and Colovic, are questionable. Normally these two teams would be quite equal and I'd say the team news favour PS Kemi slightly assuming the forum rumours are true that they'll get most of those missing players back, so +0,5 would be acceptable for a small bet.
Due to the volatile nature of Kakkonen odds and the low limits for most people, it's probably quite silly to make any staking suggestions, but I'll say it anyway: from 2005 to 2013 practically all the profits have come from 1x2 and handicap bets, and the total selections have been the very definition of fun bets with just tiny amount of profit. This game looks to be very high-scoring both statistically and in terms of playing style. YPA and PS Kemi have the best offenses in the league if not in the whole Kakkonen and while the defenses have been just as good statistically the recent (defensive) form has not been as good for either team as it was a month ago. Pejic is a big blow for YPA, but they do have plenty of offensive talent available as the possible missing players are all defenders. YPA-VIFK was another entertaining top clash and this game going the same way wouldn't even surprise Juha Mieto.
AC Oulu-OPS
Not really confident with recommending anything for Ykkönen, but with current odds OPS +0.5 and U2.5 are the only possible choices. AC Oulu has been almost JIPPO-like after gk Monsalve replaced Lindolm and it's not really a coincidence since the defense has been much improved, and on the other hand, Mäkelä being injured and Adeyinka flopping have ensured that the normally entertaining offense depends too much on Heikkilä. Ojala is still a quite good prospect, but expecting him to score consistently is not fair, and he does usually play at midfield anyway. Verronen and Sohlo have either got minimal playing or have not impressed that much to expect them to provide any significant offensive output, and don't even start with Haanpää. I'd attribute OPS' recent good form mostly on their opponents as both PK-35 and SJK are in disaster mode right now. Though I didn't see the PK-35 match, the SJK win had plenty of luck involved in it. Now that Ngambe^2 is gone, the strength of OPS lies even more clearly in their defense. Gk Koponen, Gurzeda, Jibrin and Räisänen are all elite players in Ykkönen and the full/wing backs can hold their own at this level. OPS offense relies heavily on set pieces of Ramires and giving, or more accurately hoofing, the ball to Stewart, who is likely one of the fastest players in Ykkönen. Nepotism, homegrown rule and expensive Finnish players mean that there is plenty of dead weight upfront in OPS. Juntunen, Autti, Elijah Christopher, Kemppainen, Peci, Huovinen & co are useless for this level, and in comparison they make even AC Oulu's rotation players look threatening.
If AC Oulu were playing with their best squad and were in good form I'd say -0,5 would be justified. However, for the lack of better word ACO's games have been very sluggish in Monsalve era, in fact almost every match including the JIPPO game could have easily ended in draw - outside those 4 games which actually were draws. OPS knows how to defend (and they'll almost certainly do it today), and the same thing could be said for AC Oulu too recently, and I don't think the class difference is as big as the odds suggest. Also, the recent meetings between these two have been very cautious, uneventful and boring (even in Finland there are some matches you don't want to lose), so unless either team drastically changes their approach I don't see there being many goals scored in this.
Torture your ears with the AC Oulu goal song:
FC YPA - PS Kemi 44 20 36
o/u 2.5: 74 26
To say that both teams struggled a lot last weekend would be an understatement of the week, or how does it sound to have to come back in an away game from 2-0 down with a very depleted squad or having to survive this in the last minute? The fact that YPA and Kemi both won is probably a good example why they're placed 1st and 2nd as lesser teams would have likely crumbled to a draw in those kind of circumstances. With current European odds I'd be tempted to put something on PS Kemi, but knowing the line-ups would be quite important before making any decisions. PS Kemi missed plenty of regular starters from PK-37 match, including their first choice gk Vilmunen, Ions, midfield enforcer Pätsi and Pasher (8 goals and many assists too). YPA does get their important defender Morrison-Derbyshire back, but topscorer Pejic is suspended. Also, two regular starters from defense, Pakola and Colovic, are questionable. Normally these two teams would be quite equal and I'd say the team news favour PS Kemi slightly assuming the forum rumours are true that they'll get most of those missing players back, so +0,5 would be acceptable for a small bet.
Due to the volatile nature of Kakkonen odds and the low limits for most people, it's probably quite silly to make any staking suggestions, but I'll say it anyway: from 2005 to 2013 practically all the profits have come from 1x2 and handicap bets, and the total selections have been the very definition of fun bets with just tiny amount of profit. This game looks to be very high-scoring both statistically and in terms of playing style. YPA and PS Kemi have the best offenses in the league if not in the whole Kakkonen and while the defenses have been just as good statistically the recent (defensive) form has not been as good for either team as it was a month ago. Pejic is a big blow for YPA, but they do have plenty of offensive talent available as the possible missing players are all defenders. YPA-VIFK was another entertaining top clash and this game going the same way wouldn't even surprise Juha Mieto.
AC Oulu-OPS
Not really confident with recommending anything for Ykkönen, but with current odds OPS +0.5 and U2.5 are the only possible choices. AC Oulu has been almost JIPPO-like after gk Monsalve replaced Lindolm and it's not really a coincidence since the defense has been much improved, and on the other hand, Mäkelä being injured and Adeyinka flopping have ensured that the normally entertaining offense depends too much on Heikkilä. Ojala is still a quite good prospect, but expecting him to score consistently is not fair, and he does usually play at midfield anyway. Verronen and Sohlo have either got minimal playing or have not impressed that much to expect them to provide any significant offensive output, and don't even start with Haanpää. I'd attribute OPS' recent good form mostly on their opponents as both PK-35 and SJK are in disaster mode right now. Though I didn't see the PK-35 match, the SJK win had plenty of luck involved in it. Now that Ngambe^2 is gone, the strength of OPS lies even more clearly in their defense. Gk Koponen, Gurzeda, Jibrin and Räisänen are all elite players in Ykkönen and the full/wing backs can hold their own at this level. OPS offense relies heavily on set pieces of Ramires and giving, or more accurately hoofing, the ball to Stewart, who is likely one of the fastest players in Ykkönen. Nepotism, homegrown rule and expensive Finnish players mean that there is plenty of dead weight upfront in OPS. Juntunen, Autti, Elijah Christopher, Kemppainen, Peci, Huovinen & co are useless for this level, and in comparison they make even AC Oulu's rotation players look threatening.
If AC Oulu were playing with their best squad and were in good form I'd say -0,5 would be justified. However, for the lack of better word ACO's games have been very sluggish in Monsalve era, in fact almost every match including the JIPPO game could have easily ended in draw - outside those 4 games which actually were draws. OPS knows how to defend (and they'll almost certainly do it today), and the same thing could be said for AC Oulu too recently, and I don't think the class difference is as big as the odds suggest. Also, the recent meetings between these two have been very cautious, uneventful and boring (even in Finland there are some matches you don't want to lose), so unless either team drastically changes their approach I don't see there being many goals scored in this.
Torture your ears with the AC Oulu goal song:
22.7.2013
21.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 21.7
Lots of odds movement for some reason, a possible bet on KPV but that game is not interesting anyway so I'll wait for the line-ups.
PK-37 - PS Kemi -0,5 2 66% 6/10 188Bet
PK-37 - PS Kemi O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
ORP - GBK -0,5 2 70% 1,88 9/10 188Bet (-0,75 66,5% at Sbobet, was expecting -1 so that would be 9/10 too)
ORP - GBK O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
KPV - TP-47 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31
KPV should have their best squad available, TP-47 got two guys sent off last time but they're not the most indispensable players. RoPS help is possible, likely to be Forsman and/or Lahdenmäki, who've usually helped quite a bit. After going on a long winning streak, KPV has now lost two in a row. Both losses have however been quite unlucky, and the opponents were really tough so KPV has nothing to be ashamed of. Drawing with Tervarit is inexcusable for a team of TP-47's caliber, and while their performances have been acceptable, I'm not that high on a team that hasn't won in a long time. On the other hand, Kemi, YPA and VIFK is a tough streak of games to go through, and before that TP-47 was remarkably consistent in their ability to not lose against teams outside those three. Really tough to say whether either of these has earned the right to call themselves a favorite so I'll settle for the middle option. TP-47 has been better when looking at the long-term performances while KPV has maybe played slightly better recently, player quality is probably quite equal but TP-47 does have the edge in coaching. KPV should still be somewhere along the middle in totals, TP-47 has been extremely low-scoring lately after they were completely opposite of that in the first 1/3 of the season and as the information about TP-47 is still very scarce (still a few rounds until they come here) I'll likely take a pass with the total bets here.
PK-37 - PS Kemi 17 17 66
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's Lähderinne returns from suspension, PS Kemi's preview talks of two starters being out (no names mentioned, who could've guessed), Torvic and Tervarit transfer Ogbuefi being back will help them quite a bit. PK-37's good run came to an end against GBK who completely outplayed them. PS Kemi is at least on the same level as GBK but it would be silly to base your estimation on just one game so obviously PK-37 is not totally without chances here. PK-37 has usually been quite good at home, and PS Kemi's away performances have still been quite suspect even though they've managed to win a few games. However, that's mostly just nitpicking since PS Kemi has still won almost all of their games, and even the losses have had plenty of things go against them. The class difference is big enough to make -1 for the visitors interesting, as PK-37 is still a middle table team at best and PS Kemi is on top of the ranking along with YPA. PK-37's games against good offensive teams have usually ended in goalfests and it's not difficult to see PS Kemi's speedy strikers having a field day against PK-37's slow defense. I'll still be a bit cautious as I've been burned multiple times with PS Kemi's low scoring away games, so 3.25 would not be that interesting.
ORPa - GBK 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28
In case anyone actually reads these they should be quite familiar with the situation here. Since they've played so poorly lately, ORP does not bother with writing previews but I'd assume all the "key" players will be available meaning that Rönkkö will return from his suspension. GBK's Melarti will likely still miss this game. ORP is still hanging in the relegation battle mostly because they managed to win a couple of games against Tervarit and KPV, otherwise they haven't been competitive against other teams if the first few games are not taken in account. GBK was terrible in the first two months but after they sacked their coach they've now won three games in a row. In simple terms this is a game between a team very likely to get relegated and a team that is probably just as good as VIFK despite their poor position in the table. Fatigue could be the only thing going against GBK as this is their third game in a week, but other than that it's difficult to see anything other than an away win. GBK's record is pretty self-explanatory, they've practically always went over the 2.5 line and o3.5 has happened almost as often. ORP offense remains very weak despite last week's two goals, so the improved GBK defense could prove too hard to crack. Rönkkö's return will help ORP but GBK is scoring at will right now against better teams than ORP so he'd need to pull more than a few miracle saves to keep the score respectable.
PK-37 - PS Kemi -0,5 2 66% 6/10 188Bet
PK-37 - PS Kemi O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
ORP - GBK -0,5 2 70% 1,88 9/10 188Bet (-0,75 66,5% at Sbobet, was expecting -1 so that would be 9/10 too)
ORP - GBK O3.0 64,5% 1,80 7/10 188Bet
KPV - TP-47 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31
KPV should have their best squad available, TP-47 got two guys sent off last time but they're not the most indispensable players. RoPS help is possible, likely to be Forsman and/or Lahdenmäki, who've usually helped quite a bit. After going on a long winning streak, KPV has now lost two in a row. Both losses have however been quite unlucky, and the opponents were really tough so KPV has nothing to be ashamed of. Drawing with Tervarit is inexcusable for a team of TP-47's caliber, and while their performances have been acceptable, I'm not that high on a team that hasn't won in a long time. On the other hand, Kemi, YPA and VIFK is a tough streak of games to go through, and before that TP-47 was remarkably consistent in their ability to not lose against teams outside those three. Really tough to say whether either of these has earned the right to call themselves a favorite so I'll settle for the middle option. TP-47 has been better when looking at the long-term performances while KPV has maybe played slightly better recently, player quality is probably quite equal but TP-47 does have the edge in coaching. KPV should still be somewhere along the middle in totals, TP-47 has been extremely low-scoring lately after they were completely opposite of that in the first 1/3 of the season and as the information about TP-47 is still very scarce (still a few rounds until they come here) I'll likely take a pass with the total bets here.
PK-37 - PS Kemi 17 17 66
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's Lähderinne returns from suspension, PS Kemi's preview talks of two starters being out (no names mentioned, who could've guessed), Torvic and Tervarit transfer Ogbuefi being back will help them quite a bit. PK-37's good run came to an end against GBK who completely outplayed them. PS Kemi is at least on the same level as GBK but it would be silly to base your estimation on just one game so obviously PK-37 is not totally without chances here. PK-37 has usually been quite good at home, and PS Kemi's away performances have still been quite suspect even though they've managed to win a few games. However, that's mostly just nitpicking since PS Kemi has still won almost all of their games, and even the losses have had plenty of things go against them. The class difference is big enough to make -1 for the visitors interesting, as PK-37 is still a middle table team at best and PS Kemi is on top of the ranking along with YPA. PK-37's games against good offensive teams have usually ended in goalfests and it's not difficult to see PS Kemi's speedy strikers having a field day against PK-37's slow defense. I'll still be a bit cautious as I've been burned multiple times with PS Kemi's low scoring away games, so 3.25 would not be that interesting.
ORPa - GBK 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28
In case anyone actually reads these they should be quite familiar with the situation here. Since they've played so poorly lately, ORP does not bother with writing previews but I'd assume all the "key" players will be available meaning that Rönkkö will return from his suspension. GBK's Melarti will likely still miss this game. ORP is still hanging in the relegation battle mostly because they managed to win a couple of games against Tervarit and KPV, otherwise they haven't been competitive against other teams if the first few games are not taken in account. GBK was terrible in the first two months but after they sacked their coach they've now won three games in a row. In simple terms this is a game between a team very likely to get relegated and a team that is probably just as good as VIFK despite their poor position in the table. Fatigue could be the only thing going against GBK as this is their third game in a week, but other than that it's difficult to see anything other than an away win. GBK's record is pretty self-explanatory, they've practically always went over the 2.5 line and o3.5 has happened almost as often. ORP offense remains very weak despite last week's two goals, so the improved GBK defense could prove too hard to crack. Rönkkö's return will help ORP but GBK is scoring at will right now against better teams than ORP so he'd need to pull more than a few miracle saves to keep the score respectable.
20.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.7
Won't be able to check Kerho 07's line-ups, with current information -1,5 does not raise any interest.
FC YPA - VIFK O3.0 64,5% 1,92 9/10 Sbobet
Kerho 07 - Tervarit O3.25 60% 1,92 6,5/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - VIFK 54 19 27
o/u 2.5: 72 28
YPA has important Morrison-Derbyshire out from defense, VIFK with no one out. YPA had a second bad game in a row yet this time they somehow managed to win KPV instead of getting blown out like against PK-37. The recent form is naturally a worrying thing, but they're still pretty much one of the best team in the group along with PS Kemi and today's opponents VIFK. VIFK was dismantled by PS Kemi last week, and though YPA is not at their best at the moment I'd expect this to go the same way. There's a considerable difference between the player quality in favor of YPA so while you could rank these two pretty close together, in a h2h match and at home I'll favor YPA much more heavily. Only one bookmaker has released any odds as of writing, but they don't seem to be fooled by the standings either so with 1,65-level odds offered for the home team the 1x2 market looks like a no bet. The same bookie seems to expect this to be a more low-scoring game than usual which I disagree with. All the goals were scored in the 2nd half in VIFK's last game, but there were plenty of chances in that game even in the first half so overall the trend of high scoring football for VIFK seems to be continuing. YPA's normally reliable attack has tanked slightly in the recent games, but on the other hand their defense has suffered equal lapses as they've now started conceding goals regularly, which is a big change to the first 1/3 of the season when they had tons of clean sheets. As said before, top clashes usually don't end up being particularly careful affairs in this group and I doubt that we'll see it change here. European odds suggest that 3.0 could be available, which would be very very appealing.
Kerho 07 - Tervarit 74 14 12
o/u 2.5: 74 26
SJK's, or I mean Kerho 07's player situation seems to be chaotic at the moment so the wisest thing to do is wait for the line-ups which appear exactly one hour before the kick-off. 28 different players have started for Tervarit this season, and that probably is enough player news about them. One noteworthy thing is the transfer of Ogbuefi from Tervarit to PS Kemi, and from those teams you can likely guess how good of a player Ogbuefi is. Nevertheless, he hasn't played with them lately so no effect on this game. As strange as it may sound, Kerho 07 seems to have played ok against GBK even though they lost by four goals. Before that the results have been quite similar, they've been pretty competitive against good teams, but wins have been very hard to come by. Personally I'd love to see these useless reserve teams go down or form a league of their own (Klubi 04 playing in Ykkönen was a blasphemy enough), but I fear the games against ORP and Tervarit are going to save them this year at least. Tervarit draw against TP-47 last week was something that I honestly never saw coming especially considering the line-up they fielded. What actually happened in TP-47 match is still a bit unclear, but if the home team's report is to be believed TP-47 was very much on top so that at least sounds familiar. Any Tervarit bets are still not an option, Kerho 07 has enough turmoil going on right now in addition to questionable form that anything near to last week's -2,25 (TP-47 vs Tervarit) is out of the question. Based solely on the big class difference I'd take a chance with over 3.25, but it would be in no way anywhere near a tasty bet. A lot depends on the home team's line-up, but in general terms before the TP-47 match any semi-competitive team usually dropped at least a few goals on Tervarit so expecting Kerho 07 to do the same would not be that far fetched.
FC YPA - VIFK O3.0 64,5% 1,92 9/10 Sbobet
Kerho 07 - Tervarit O3.25 60% 1,92 6,5/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - VIFK 54 19 27
o/u 2.5: 72 28
YPA has important Morrison-Derbyshire out from defense, VIFK with no one out. YPA had a second bad game in a row yet this time they somehow managed to win KPV instead of getting blown out like against PK-37. The recent form is naturally a worrying thing, but they're still pretty much one of the best team in the group along with PS Kemi and today's opponents VIFK. VIFK was dismantled by PS Kemi last week, and though YPA is not at their best at the moment I'd expect this to go the same way. There's a considerable difference between the player quality in favor of YPA so while you could rank these two pretty close together, in a h2h match and at home I'll favor YPA much more heavily. Only one bookmaker has released any odds as of writing, but they don't seem to be fooled by the standings either so with 1,65-level odds offered for the home team the 1x2 market looks like a no bet. The same bookie seems to expect this to be a more low-scoring game than usual which I disagree with. All the goals were scored in the 2nd half in VIFK's last game, but there were plenty of chances in that game even in the first half so overall the trend of high scoring football for VIFK seems to be continuing. YPA's normally reliable attack has tanked slightly in the recent games, but on the other hand their defense has suffered equal lapses as they've now started conceding goals regularly, which is a big change to the first 1/3 of the season when they had tons of clean sheets. As said before, top clashes usually don't end up being particularly careful affairs in this group and I doubt that we'll see it change here. European odds suggest that 3.0 could be available, which would be very very appealing.
Kerho 07 - Tervarit 74 14 12
o/u 2.5: 74 26
SJK's, or I mean Kerho 07's player situation seems to be chaotic at the moment so the wisest thing to do is wait for the line-ups which appear exactly one hour before the kick-off. 28 different players have started for Tervarit this season, and that probably is enough player news about them. One noteworthy thing is the transfer of Ogbuefi from Tervarit to PS Kemi, and from those teams you can likely guess how good of a player Ogbuefi is. Nevertheless, he hasn't played with them lately so no effect on this game. As strange as it may sound, Kerho 07 seems to have played ok against GBK even though they lost by four goals. Before that the results have been quite similar, they've been pretty competitive against good teams, but wins have been very hard to come by. Personally I'd love to see these useless reserve teams go down or form a league of their own (Klubi 04 playing in Ykkönen was a blasphemy enough), but I fear the games against ORP and Tervarit are going to save them this year at least. Tervarit draw against TP-47 last week was something that I honestly never saw coming especially considering the line-up they fielded. What actually happened in TP-47 match is still a bit unclear, but if the home team's report is to be believed TP-47 was very much on top so that at least sounds familiar. Any Tervarit bets are still not an option, Kerho 07 has enough turmoil going on right now in addition to questionable form that anything near to last week's -2,25 (TP-47 vs Tervarit) is out of the question. Based solely on the big class difference I'd take a chance with over 3.25, but it would be in no way anywhere near a tasty bet. A lot depends on the home team's line-up, but in general terms before the TP-47 match any semi-competitive team usually dropped at least a few goals on Tervarit so expecting Kerho 07 to do the same would not be that far fetched.
17.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 17.7
GBK - PK-37 O3.25 56% 1,90 2,5/10 Sbobet
GBK - PK-37 58 19 23
o/u 2.5: 71 29
The topscorer from last year (19 goals in 25 games), Melarti, is still missing from GBK's lineup. PK-37's player manager Lähderinne is suspended. GBK beat Kerho 07 convincingly last week, and while the winning margin was too big, the overall performance seems to have been quite similar to what worked for them in 2011 and 2012, meaning solid defending and extremely efficient finishing. The big margin of victory probably also ruined any chance of getting playable odds for GBK if the Asians follow the European odds. I'll likely a need a couple of more wins from GBK to be fully convinced, but at the moment it looks like they are finally back and with the squad that they have it means they could be just behind PS Kemi, FC YPA and VIFK in terms of team quality or ranking. PK-37 made the ORP win look much harder than it was as their gk committed couple of errors which led to both ORP goals. Otherwise they were in full control most of the time, and though they did not get many chances, there was the lingering feeling that they would have inevitably scored the necessary goals to win the game anyway. It could be almost said that PK-37 is in better form now than GBK, as they've played at a pretty good level for a few weeks now. However, on paper GBK is so much better that I wouldn't bother with PK-37 +1 even if it were available. And similarly, the same thing could be said for GBK, one shaky win against KPV and defeating Kerho 07, who are not playing that good at the moment, is not enough to make either -0,75 or -1 interesting.
GBK did go over the line last week, but now that their defense seems to be much improved they're probably not as big over team as they were before. Despite that, they have plenty of quality in their attack so I wouldn't lower them too much, and luckily the opportunity to see them in action comes already on Sunday against ORP so I won't have to use random.org to come up with total estimations. PK-37's last game had five goals in it, but there honestly wasn't that much entertainment value in it, in fact it was quite the opposite since even the half chances resulted in goals. Before that PK-37 was quite under-like lately, but as usual in Kakkonen North, three goals is not that unheard of for any team so when playing against a team like GBK I wouldn't be able to resist the opportunity to take the over if the line were 3.0, though in all likelihood the line will again be 3.25 like it almost always is.
GBK - PK-37 58 19 23
o/u 2.5: 71 29
The topscorer from last year (19 goals in 25 games), Melarti, is still missing from GBK's lineup. PK-37's player manager Lähderinne is suspended. GBK beat Kerho 07 convincingly last week, and while the winning margin was too big, the overall performance seems to have been quite similar to what worked for them in 2011 and 2012, meaning solid defending and extremely efficient finishing. The big margin of victory probably also ruined any chance of getting playable odds for GBK if the Asians follow the European odds. I'll likely a need a couple of more wins from GBK to be fully convinced, but at the moment it looks like they are finally back and with the squad that they have it means they could be just behind PS Kemi, FC YPA and VIFK in terms of team quality or ranking. PK-37 made the ORP win look much harder than it was as their gk committed couple of errors which led to both ORP goals. Otherwise they were in full control most of the time, and though they did not get many chances, there was the lingering feeling that they would have inevitably scored the necessary goals to win the game anyway. It could be almost said that PK-37 is in better form now than GBK, as they've played at a pretty good level for a few weeks now. However, on paper GBK is so much better that I wouldn't bother with PK-37 +1 even if it were available. And similarly, the same thing could be said for GBK, one shaky win against KPV and defeating Kerho 07, who are not playing that good at the moment, is not enough to make either -0,75 or -1 interesting.
GBK did go over the line last week, but now that their defense seems to be much improved they're probably not as big over team as they were before. Despite that, they have plenty of quality in their attack so I wouldn't lower them too much, and luckily the opportunity to see them in action comes already on Sunday against ORP so I won't have to use random.org to come up with total estimations. PK-37's last game had five goals in it, but there honestly wasn't that much entertainment value in it, in fact it was quite the opposite since even the half chances resulted in goals. Before that PK-37 was quite under-like lately, but as usual in Kakkonen North, three goals is not that unheard of for any team so when playing against a team like GBK I wouldn't be able to resist the opportunity to take the over if the line were 3.0, though in all likelihood the line will again be 3.25 like it almost always is.
16.7.2013
Highlights KuPS vs JJK Ft 2-1
KuPS bet "comfortably" home. Unlucky not to finish JJK off earlier, lucky to have enough time to score the winner after the late and undeserved 1-1 equalizer from penalty spot.
Thank you Ilja Venäläinen!
14.7.2013
Highlights OPS vs PK-35 FT 2-0
Finally PK-35 manager Pihamaa gets fired. A few more managers needing the sabbatical year, lets see if we also get Rajamäki, Dragtsma and Pekonen out before the season is over.
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 14.7
TP-47 - Tervari O3.75 54% 1,92 3/10 12Bet
Kerho 07 - GBK +0,25 2 59% 1,91 4/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - GBK O3.25 59% 1,86 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA O3.25 59% 1,84 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA 18 17 65
o/u 2.5: 73 27
It's hard to get an accurate description from the Kokkola derby, but it seems like the game was quite even so KPV can count themselves slightly unlucky to have lost that match. As you can see from their results lately KPV is now a completely different team compared to first 1/3 of the season. This game, however, is on a whole different level in terms of challenge as YPA is far ahead of GBK, PK-37, Kerho 07 and the Oulu minnows. Or to be precise, YPA should be far ahead of those five since lately YPA has hit some bumps on their road to Ykkönen. If the homegrown rule looks to have started the self-destruction in SJK, the same can be said for YPA and their red cards. In total, they are missing two regular starters and two part-time starters, and with a painfully thin squad they really can't afford losing too many players so I've lowered their estimation quite a bit. Normally I'd expect YPA to have no trouble with KPV as the class difference is huge, but due to the uncertain situation with YPA, the 1x2 and handicap markets are in my opinion basically untouchable. The same sentiment mostly applies to the total too, in ordinary circumstances I'd expect YPA's excellent attack to break down KPV, who are probably going to approach this match very defensively just like they did in the last h2h match. YPA's defense did break down against PK-37 when Morrison-Derbyshire was sent off, and KPV is not any worse than PK-37 when it comes to attacking so if YPA decides to continue their screw-ups KPV is more than capable of making some damage.
TP-47 - Tervarit 85 9 6
o/u 2.5: 78 22
The standings describe this match better than any words, but in short anything other than a home win would be a big surprise. TP-47 has played against the top 3 lately so the results don't look so good for them, but assuming their confidence hasn't been hit too much they should destroy Tervarit. TP-47 has been clearly the fourth best team overall, and while Tervarit isn't any worse than ORP they're an abysmal team for this level so the 10th place is quite accurate for them. Line-up roulette continues for the away team, but that probably does not make any difference if the team loses nearly all of their games. TP-47 gets two not so important players back from suspension, one semi-important player was still missing in PS Kemi match. Tervarit away games have usually ended in massacres and it's hard to see this one going any different. TP-47's recent form is the only worrying thing as they've been much more low-scoring than usual, but I'd say this a very different type of game (meaning big class difference) than those four matches before so I'm confident that they'll have a good chance to return to their extremely over-like games. Tervarit scoring is still quite rare and thus I wouldn't be too interested in lines higher than 3.5.
Kerho 07 - GBK 37 20 43
o/u 2.5: 73 27
If KPV-YPA is a nightmare game in a betting sense, this is even more so. There are enough reasons for both teams to be favorites and while I've given GBK the slight nod it could just as well go to Kerho 07. The visitors finally won a game so the coaching change helped a bit, but with a squad list like theirs they should be dominating teams like KPV, not win them barely by one late goal. There's a lot of potential in GBK, even to challenge the top 3 but one single win is not enough to completely overturn the awful form they displayed before that. For the past month and a half results have not gone in Kerho 07's favor, but they have played good enough that I wouldn't be too eager to play GBK. Strangely enough Kerho 07 have looked very poor against mediocre teams such as KPV and PK-37 while the YPA, PS Kemi and last week's VIFK game have been very even. As predicting GBK's real quality is mostly lottery right now, the best option would be probably be to just skip this game entirely. However, due to GBK having a much better team in paper and also because of their much higher ceiling in terms class I likely wouldn't be able to resist GBK level ball if that were available. Palosaari and Aalto did not play with SJK yesterday so they'll probably be with Kerho 07, same goes for Goldberg. Their captain Ylinen will be out for a month, but in Oulu games he did not display anything worthwhile. GBK lost half a dozen players to the Finnish army, though they should have all of their key players available so a couple of youngsters being out should not affect them that much. Total is nearly as tricky as 1x2, GBK was obviously much better last week when they got a clean sheet so the question is will that cancel out the previous two months, where they went through a ridiculous streak of nine O3.5 games in a row. GBK's offense has statistically been quite average, but the scoring streak is still going on and on paper they have at minimum the third best offense in the group. Kerho 07 has been quite steady with the almost all the unders coming from games against under teams (VIFK in May and PK-37 twice), against similar opposition as GBK there's almost always been at least three scored. 3.0 line would be good for at least a medium bet, 3.25 not so much.
Kerho 07 - GBK +0,25 2 59% 1,91 4/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - GBK O3.25 59% 1,86 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA O3.25 59% 1,84 4/10 12Bet
KPV - FC YPA 18 17 65
o/u 2.5: 73 27
It's hard to get an accurate description from the Kokkola derby, but it seems like the game was quite even so KPV can count themselves slightly unlucky to have lost that match. As you can see from their results lately KPV is now a completely different team compared to first 1/3 of the season. This game, however, is on a whole different level in terms of challenge as YPA is far ahead of GBK, PK-37, Kerho 07 and the Oulu minnows. Or to be precise, YPA should be far ahead of those five since lately YPA has hit some bumps on their road to Ykkönen. If the homegrown rule looks to have started the self-destruction in SJK, the same can be said for YPA and their red cards. In total, they are missing two regular starters and two part-time starters, and with a painfully thin squad they really can't afford losing too many players so I've lowered their estimation quite a bit. Normally I'd expect YPA to have no trouble with KPV as the class difference is huge, but due to the uncertain situation with YPA, the 1x2 and handicap markets are in my opinion basically untouchable. The same sentiment mostly applies to the total too, in ordinary circumstances I'd expect YPA's excellent attack to break down KPV, who are probably going to approach this match very defensively just like they did in the last h2h match. YPA's defense did break down against PK-37 when Morrison-Derbyshire was sent off, and KPV is not any worse than PK-37 when it comes to attacking so if YPA decides to continue their screw-ups KPV is more than capable of making some damage.
TP-47 - Tervarit 85 9 6
o/u 2.5: 78 22
The standings describe this match better than any words, but in short anything other than a home win would be a big surprise. TP-47 has played against the top 3 lately so the results don't look so good for them, but assuming their confidence hasn't been hit too much they should destroy Tervarit. TP-47 has been clearly the fourth best team overall, and while Tervarit isn't any worse than ORP they're an abysmal team for this level so the 10th place is quite accurate for them. Line-up roulette continues for the away team, but that probably does not make any difference if the team loses nearly all of their games. TP-47 gets two not so important players back from suspension, one semi-important player was still missing in PS Kemi match. Tervarit away games have usually ended in massacres and it's hard to see this one going any different. TP-47's recent form is the only worrying thing as they've been much more low-scoring than usual, but I'd say this a very different type of game (meaning big class difference) than those four matches before so I'm confident that they'll have a good chance to return to their extremely over-like games. Tervarit scoring is still quite rare and thus I wouldn't be too interested in lines higher than 3.5.
Kerho 07 - GBK 37 20 43
o/u 2.5: 73 27
If KPV-YPA is a nightmare game in a betting sense, this is even more so. There are enough reasons for both teams to be favorites and while I've given GBK the slight nod it could just as well go to Kerho 07. The visitors finally won a game so the coaching change helped a bit, but with a squad list like theirs they should be dominating teams like KPV, not win them barely by one late goal. There's a lot of potential in GBK, even to challenge the top 3 but one single win is not enough to completely overturn the awful form they displayed before that. For the past month and a half results have not gone in Kerho 07's favor, but they have played good enough that I wouldn't be too eager to play GBK. Strangely enough Kerho 07 have looked very poor against mediocre teams such as KPV and PK-37 while the YPA, PS Kemi and last week's VIFK game have been very even. As predicting GBK's real quality is mostly lottery right now, the best option would be probably be to just skip this game entirely. However, due to GBK having a much better team in paper and also because of their much higher ceiling in terms class I likely wouldn't be able to resist GBK level ball if that were available. Palosaari and Aalto did not play with SJK yesterday so they'll probably be with Kerho 07, same goes for Goldberg. Their captain Ylinen will be out for a month, but in Oulu games he did not display anything worthwhile. GBK lost half a dozen players to the Finnish army, though they should have all of their key players available so a couple of youngsters being out should not affect them that much. Total is nearly as tricky as 1x2, GBK was obviously much better last week when they got a clean sheet so the question is will that cancel out the previous two months, where they went through a ridiculous streak of nine O3.5 games in a row. GBK's offense has statistically been quite average, but the scoring streak is still going on and on paper they have at minimum the third best offense in the group. Kerho 07 has been quite steady with the almost all the unders coming from games against under teams (VIFK in May and PK-37 twice), against similar opposition as GBK there's almost always been at least three scored. 3.0 line would be good for at least a medium bet, 3.25 not so much.
13.7.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 13.7
PS Kemi - VIFK -0,5 1 53% 1,96 2,5/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - VIFK O3.25 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
ORP - PK-37 -0,5 2 54% 1,99 4/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - VIFK 53 19 28
o/u 2.5: 72 28
Very equal teams, but as said multiple times before PS Kemi has been excellent at home not only based on the results but also in the way that they seem to play much more aggressively at home than away. Also they do have more individual talent than VIFK so with the coaching being likely quite equal this year I'd be prepared to try -0,5 for small stakes. For the past month and a half both teams have mostly just won so it's difficult to say anything negative about either team or their form. If anything, neither has displayed the same type of dominance as the legendary trio of SJK, OPA and OPS so succeeding in Ykkönen would need plenty of new signings. VIFK does not seem to have any significant injuries. Kemi missed their first choice gk last time but no information on whether he'll return, other than that there doesn't seem to be anybody else missing (e: the gk is still out, they also miss two regular starters from defense/midfield). Last week was disastrous with totals, but assuming that was just derby round jitters or just, you know, one fluke round (after all, no team goes full season with just 5-1 or 2-5 results) then I'd lean fairly hard towards the over in this game. PS Kemi does seem to be prone to occasional bore fests in away games, but at home the last time they had fewer than 3 goals scored was over a year ago. VIFK is currently quite a special case, normally they are the kings of low scoring football but recently it has been quite the opposite. Whether that is just a streak of random results or not I don't know, but there's not a better chance to continue that string of results than visiting Kemi. As this is still a top clash, 3.25 line would be something that I probably wouldn't get too excited with, but if the asians follow Bet365's odds then there's a fairly good chance for 3.0 which would be more than enough.
ORPa - PK-37 26 20 54
o/u 2.5: 63 37
As much as I despise PK-37 and would like to see more Oulu teams play in Kakkonen, the truth is that concerning betting angles there's only one possible choice and it's PK-37. PK-37 finally broke out of their unlucky spell by completely trashing YPA, although the red card obviously played a part in that. At the moment, their form is much better than ORP's, who have been terrible for a long time now. The home side's Tervarit win was the same old for them with even the winning goal coming from a very controversial refereeing decision in an otherwise even game. From the VIFK game onward, PK-37 has been playing good football despite the poor looking results, so even when playing away from home anything above 2,00 would be an instant bet. While I'd still place PK-37's quality at middle table at best, the gap between the current bottom two and the teams above them is just as big as the difference between the top trio and the teams underneath them. ORP did not fare any better offensively against Tervarit, so it's not difficult to expect them to have a hard time scoring against PK-37, who have for the past month played much like they have always played, meaning plenty of low scoring games. Of course some result have been quite misleading but the overall picture is still quite under-like. ORP's important gk still has one game remaining in his suspension (there's also some player movement, impossible to say whether the new players will do anything good for them), but I wouldn't expect them to have too much trouble defensively with PK-37, though the visitors are still the clear favorites today. e: PK-37 does seem to have their top scorer suspended, so not too hot on them anymore.
PS Kemi - VIFK O3.25 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
ORP - PK-37 -0,5 2 54% 1,99 4/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - VIFK 53 19 28
o/u 2.5: 72 28
Very equal teams, but as said multiple times before PS Kemi has been excellent at home not only based on the results but also in the way that they seem to play much more aggressively at home than away. Also they do have more individual talent than VIFK so with the coaching being likely quite equal this year I'd be prepared to try -0,5 for small stakes. For the past month and a half both teams have mostly just won so it's difficult to say anything negative about either team or their form. If anything, neither has displayed the same type of dominance as the legendary trio of SJK, OPA and OPS so succeeding in Ykkönen would need plenty of new signings. VIFK does not seem to have any significant injuries. Kemi missed their first choice gk last time but no information on whether he'll return, other than that there doesn't seem to be anybody else missing (e: the gk is still out, they also miss two regular starters from defense/midfield). Last week was disastrous with totals, but assuming that was just derby round jitters or just, you know, one fluke round (after all, no team goes full season with just 5-1 or 2-5 results) then I'd lean fairly hard towards the over in this game. PS Kemi does seem to be prone to occasional bore fests in away games, but at home the last time they had fewer than 3 goals scored was over a year ago. VIFK is currently quite a special case, normally they are the kings of low scoring football but recently it has been quite the opposite. Whether that is just a streak of random results or not I don't know, but there's not a better chance to continue that string of results than visiting Kemi. As this is still a top clash, 3.25 line would be something that I probably wouldn't get too excited with, but if the asians follow Bet365's odds then there's a fairly good chance for 3.0 which would be more than enough.
ORPa - PK-37 26 20 54
o/u 2.5: 63 37
As much as I despise PK-37 and would like to see more Oulu teams play in Kakkonen, the truth is that concerning betting angles there's only one possible choice and it's PK-37. PK-37 finally broke out of their unlucky spell by completely trashing YPA, although the red card obviously played a part in that. At the moment, their form is much better than ORP's, who have been terrible for a long time now. The home side's Tervarit win was the same old for them with even the winning goal coming from a very controversial refereeing decision in an otherwise even game. From the VIFK game onward, PK-37 has been playing good football despite the poor looking results, so even when playing away from home anything above 2,00 would be an instant bet. While I'd still place PK-37's quality at middle table at best, the gap between the current bottom two and the teams above them is just as big as the difference between the top trio and the teams underneath them. ORP did not fare any better offensively against Tervarit, so it's not difficult to expect them to have a hard time scoring against PK-37, who have for the past month played much like they have always played, meaning plenty of low scoring games. Of course some result have been quite misleading but the overall picture is still quite under-like. ORP's important gk still has one game remaining in his suspension (there's also some player movement, impossible to say whether the new players will do anything good for them), but I wouldn't expect them to have too much trouble defensively with PK-37, though the visitors are still the clear favorites today. e: PK-37 does seem to have their top scorer suspended, so not too hot on them anymore.
10.7.2013
7.7.2013
Highlights RoPS vs KuPS FT 1-0
Uneventful game. A few late chances for KuPS but it was not meant to be.
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 7.7
TP-47 - PS Kemi O3.25 64% 1,97 9/10 Sbobet
GBK - KPV O3.25 61% 1,87 8/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - PS Kemi 28 19 53
o/u 2.5: 77 23
A really fierce derby, or at least for this level. TP-47 has only picked one point from their last two games, but that was understandable as their opponents were much tougher than what they faced earlier. PS Kemi bounced back easily from their YPA defeat as they annihilated GBK at home. I'd say the standings are quite accurate for this game, though now that I think the table is surprisingly close to what most people were predicting in the preseason. There's only a one step difference in class if you want to think it that way, but the difference between the top teams and the teams underneath them is quite big, so even in an away game PS Kemi should be a quite big favorite. However, at away I don't trust them enough to make the -0,5 worthwhile, so unless -0,25 is available I'll skip the handicap. TP-47's is very vague about any injuries, but the players that are sure to be out should not affect them much. PS Kemi misses their first choice goalkeeper Vilmunen and regular starter Spivack, with Vilmunen being the important one. Both teams are very over-like so 3.25 would be more than welcome, 3.5 would be enough too but just for small stakes. TP-47 has been quite low scoring, but I'd attribute that to their opponents (VIFK with the late goals and PK-37) and the red card in YPA game, which obviously changes things. Before that they were consistently scoring and conceding at a very high rate. PS Kemi's Eissele and Pasher are in ridiculous form right now and though Kemi does not play the same way as YPA, they're almost as high-scoring as YPA just because of the sheer amount of talent in the team.
GBK - KPV 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 75 25
If Finland were a country where people followed football, GBK's coach Lomski would have been chased off weeks ago, but as it stands nobody really cares so it took this long to actually fire him. Their new coach is one of their players, a choice that probably makes more sense financially than anything. KPV continued their winning ways against Tervarit and if we just look at the recent form KPV could actually be considered a big favorite. However, I'm maybe too involved so the idea feels just too outrageous because GBK's squad is still considerably better than KPV's even when KPV's new signings are taken into account. Anyway, the new coach for GBK and the derby aspect are probably good enough reasons for skipping the handicap in this game. Hilariously enough GBK's David Carlsson was on vacation for the last few games, so if he has returned they should finally have almost their best squad available. KPV's injury situation is unknown, but assuming nothing has happened during the week they should also be free of injuries. Goals look a good choice for this game too, GBK's new coach is one of their defenders but I doubt they can fix their terrible defense this quickly, so KPV scoring two goals should not surprise much. GBK scoring streak continued against Kemi and despite the great form of KPV they haven't been totally invulnerable with their defense so GBK should have quite good chance to score again.
PK-37 - FC YPA 15 16 69
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's last 4 games have went much better for them than what the measly 1 point that they have picked up might suggest. YPA was equally unlucky against TP-47 when they gave up a late equalizer. The fact that they were undermanned for most of the game and still dominated TP-47 tells a lot about their quality so PK-37 will have tough time getting anything from them. However, PK-37 is still a step above ORP and Tervarit so the 1,35 that is currently offered would not be acceptable even under normal circumstances. In addition to Savic, who was sent-off, YPA will miss extremely important Maluka, and while they do have adequate replacements available something like -1,25 would not be appealing. Interestingly they did play without Maluka in the first meeting (he was subbed in in the 2nd half) but despite that PK-37 was destroyed completely during the first hour. I've lowered the total estimation considerably, but this still looks like a more over-like contest than the average. For a team like PK-37, who are slow and unskillful, YPA's style of play is likely to cause a lot of trouble again. The same cautious approach is probably sensible for the total too, so I wouldn't bother with a 3.5 line.
GBK - KPV O3.25 61% 1,87 8/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - FC YPA O3.25 57% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - PS Kemi 28 19 53
o/u 2.5: 77 23
A really fierce derby, or at least for this level. TP-47 has only picked one point from their last two games, but that was understandable as their opponents were much tougher than what they faced earlier. PS Kemi bounced back easily from their YPA defeat as they annihilated GBK at home. I'd say the standings are quite accurate for this game, though now that I think the table is surprisingly close to what most people were predicting in the preseason. There's only a one step difference in class if you want to think it that way, but the difference between the top teams and the teams underneath them is quite big, so even in an away game PS Kemi should be a quite big favorite. However, at away I don't trust them enough to make the -0,5 worthwhile, so unless -0,25 is available I'll skip the handicap. TP-47's is very vague about any injuries, but the players that are sure to be out should not affect them much. PS Kemi misses their first choice goalkeeper Vilmunen and regular starter Spivack, with Vilmunen being the important one. Both teams are very over-like so 3.25 would be more than welcome, 3.5 would be enough too but just for small stakes. TP-47 has been quite low scoring, but I'd attribute that to their opponents (VIFK with the late goals and PK-37) and the red card in YPA game, which obviously changes things. Before that they were consistently scoring and conceding at a very high rate. PS Kemi's Eissele and Pasher are in ridiculous form right now and though Kemi does not play the same way as YPA, they're almost as high-scoring as YPA just because of the sheer amount of talent in the team.
GBK - KPV 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 75 25
If Finland were a country where people followed football, GBK's coach Lomski would have been chased off weeks ago, but as it stands nobody really cares so it took this long to actually fire him. Their new coach is one of their players, a choice that probably makes more sense financially than anything. KPV continued their winning ways against Tervarit and if we just look at the recent form KPV could actually be considered a big favorite. However, I'm maybe too involved so the idea feels just too outrageous because GBK's squad is still considerably better than KPV's even when KPV's new signings are taken into account. Anyway, the new coach for GBK and the derby aspect are probably good enough reasons for skipping the handicap in this game. Hilariously enough GBK's David Carlsson was on vacation for the last few games, so if he has returned they should finally have almost their best squad available. KPV's injury situation is unknown, but assuming nothing has happened during the week they should also be free of injuries. Goals look a good choice for this game too, GBK's new coach is one of their defenders but I doubt they can fix their terrible defense this quickly, so KPV scoring two goals should not surprise much. GBK scoring streak continued against Kemi and despite the great form of KPV they haven't been totally invulnerable with their defense so GBK should have quite good chance to score again.
PK-37 - FC YPA 15 16 69
o/u 2.5: 72 28
PK-37's last 4 games have went much better for them than what the measly 1 point that they have picked up might suggest. YPA was equally unlucky against TP-47 when they gave up a late equalizer. The fact that they were undermanned for most of the game and still dominated TP-47 tells a lot about their quality so PK-37 will have tough time getting anything from them. However, PK-37 is still a step above ORP and Tervarit so the 1,35 that is currently offered would not be acceptable even under normal circumstances. In addition to Savic, who was sent-off, YPA will miss extremely important Maluka, and while they do have adequate replacements available something like -1,25 would not be appealing. Interestingly they did play without Maluka in the first meeting (he was subbed in in the 2nd half) but despite that PK-37 was destroyed completely during the first hour. I've lowered the total estimation considerably, but this still looks like a more over-like contest than the average. For a team like PK-37, who are slow and unskillful, YPA's style of play is likely to cause a lot of trouble again. The same cautious approach is probably sensible for the total too, so I wouldn't bother with a 3.5 line.
4.7.2013
Results of the January 2014 customer satisfaction survey
Survey feedback & service news - This is looong...
The good news for the customers wishing for a paid preseason package is that we are almost certainly on. Do not know exactly yet how and when as want to sleep over night but soon (Thursday?) I will update the prices - page at the website with subscription details. Not sending any mass mailing reminders as most of the readers prefer football-related stuff, not ads.
For tomorrow´s HJK league cup match I will publish and update a free preview at the website ( a few videos there now from the venue) a few hours before kick-off.
Below a look at what you are thinking. Answering was anonymous and honest but of course the sample is biased as the survey was aimed at already existing customers who supposedly should be happy enough. A few very expected and repeated wishes and comments, let us have a look at some random comments and I will comment them back, naturally I need to keep some things as trade secrets:
Info about unknown league like most Prefer we keep a record of nets placed and units profit
I truly love the service and read it every day. Please just continue with the great work :-)
preseason service i hope for more "live" service
Often picks are played at nordic bookies which makes sense of course being located there. But here ( I live in Germany) Scandinavian bookies are hard to get and those available (like NordicBet, Scandic Bookmaker, Betsafe) are reducing betting limits so quickly to absolut laughable amounts thats its not worth to take them into consideration again. Plus - live picks advised are also very hard to played in Germany due to above mentioned reasons and the fact that almost all Asian bookies don't take customers from Germany anymore.
I like it that there is a great deal of inside information and professional insight input in all of the previews and reviews. I don't like it that the newsletter is sent at a random time.
not been a previous member so wouldnt know sorry
i like your trustful, honest and skillful work.
Wellwritten and usual good information.
Would like to see a x/10 system implemented.
i like the in depth match previews and analysis after match
Haven't tried the paid service yet
Like - big knowleadge on finnish soccer, nice recommandation from different persons. Looks very pro also from the newsletter, videos and reviews. Dislike - I consider that what push this backwards is the approach of not having stats for previous seasons. Is different approach to regular services but ain't neccesarry a bad thing. I can get used with it if I get in as I keep my own stats
I like your detailed analysis and the early information. I dislike the price but just because I don't bet big amounts of money.
Like the professionalism of Jarkko. Keep it up!
***********
All of these are very common and well-known challenges which I have tried to tackle earlier with different methods but have decided to keep the service running the way it runs and I have explained the reasons for it several times and I will do it once more again.
Stats
There is not going to be public stats in the future either because of the way I present the ideas is not exact; the odds I want for a match in many cases are not available at the time of the Newsletter but they are likely to be. Going for a strict policy of verifying every pick would lead that the number of matches I talk about and recommend would be very small and would be of no use. In that case I would have to concentrate in getting in my own bets at best possible price verified pregame without bothering what you get. I can reveal here that in general I do get better prices for myself than what I advice to you as I am there first. The other reason of course is that I take almost all my -hc bets late or live at some point with better odds/hc than what has been available at kick-off time. Publishing unverified stats is definitely a no-go as well. It is your stats that count, not mine but admittedly I lose a great marketing tool by not publishing winning long-term stats.
X/10 staking
This also answers partly not having exact x/10 staking but I open up my way of taking personal bets here: in the scale of 1/10 the 1 unit bet is very rarely taken. There have been a few occasions where for a big underdog there has been odds above 10 available and a small bet has been advised (Jaro to win HJK for example) but normally small stakes are not ever mentioned as those odds are not available for all. Veikkaus is a bit of an exception as they offer big handicaps/odds for Veikkausliiga games but I know that my Finns can find them theirselves and add up some extra excitement.
Flat is is
My flat stake in this system would be 5/10 and for a recommened bet there is in avg about 10% value – this number is based on 3 last years history of taken bets. At Veikkausliiga it has been less, at cups, friendlies, Ykkönen and Kakkonen a lot greater. Not too interested in recommending shorter value bets with smaller stakes, instead I am more into seeing what happens at the markets.
It is rather dangerous to start talking about max stakes of 10/10 ”in public”, but usually you can read if from the preview if I am very keen on a selection and you can increase the stake yourself. I also want to leave some room for adding up the stake in live-betting in case the selected team for example has conceded a goal against the play. I am cautious with pregame max bets as there is a limit of money I am ready to lose for one single match, but I am always ready to react in live betting.
Suggesting a 6/10 instead of 5/10 would basically require that the markets would not move and we have fixed odds. I know that many of you can calculate things on your own and even better than what I do, but last time I tried this - it was 3-4 years ago - I did get a lot of questions regarding that the odds had changed and what would be the optimal stake for the new odds. And then the odds changed again and again... Flat staking works just fine.
I do like getting feedback and questions, but during match days it is often impossible to answer to them, or even read them. Following the round live is always the priority and connecting with people seeing the other matches live takes a lot of my time.
Estimations
Publishing exact % estimations & goal expectations would partly take care of that problem and that has also been tried. And given up also years ago. I am not saying that if you have a brilliantly exact % estimation of 43-28-29 estimation created by your rankings and models for a game you should not stick to it and back in the end the other team if odds move dramatically into one direction. What I am saying is that in these smaller leagues there are occasionally so dramatic and quick changes in the team strength that you have often seen me say ”no bet at any odds for the team X here.” Last season the team X was usually TPS, JJK or OPS and look at where they are now. Too bad I did not use KuPS there as X...
No too many mathematical models can keep up if the whole squad is suddenly changed or all key players injured, like JJK of 2013 or TPS of 2014. There is a built-in model and ranking working in my head without a break, but it is often better to look at the performances and use your brain instead of the models. I have been offered and checked dozens of models and created some myself, still I think that if you have the time and resources nothing beats a manual analysis.
Schedules
For the scheduling thing and a fixed sending time there is the one problem that only FIN football association and sports media do offer; any reliable and confirmed information comes late – and not in scheduled time. Sometimes not at all. A fixed time is a problem if you have the Newsletter ready at 1600 but you have it scheduled for 1700 and you wait for the hour to pass without markets making too big moves and all the days work writing the stuff meaningless. Anyway schedule is the least of the problems we face, but of course something can be done, like announcing before hand if the schedule is changed for the day. The first Newsletter can easily be be scheduled but the later ones not. There have always been ”extra” Newsletters when something important comes up and they can not be scheduled in any way.
Live info is something that is a lot more difficult to pass on to a group of people than you would think, but any increased live betting info is something I have always wanted to do. Perhaps this is something to work on with the clients who have the biggest needs.
Eurobookies?
Someone mentioned that picks would be at nordic or other european bookies but there seems to be a misunderstaning here as they are not. Asian hc only. Occasionally perhaps something silly has been mentioned in the website for those who follow it and can take advantage of them but the Newsletter service is different to that.
If the country limits your betting it is a nuisance but usually there are options available. How does sportmarket.com work in Germany? Try that one out if you can. If this remains a problem possibly we can find a solution here from another German.
Customer satisfaction:
30% of the ones who answered found the service moderately useful.
36 % very useful and
12 % extremely useful.
Good numbers overall, but the experience of those 30% of moderate useful has to be improved. As a matter of fact no one was dissatisfied, the rest of the 100% was filled with potential new faces! Hopefully small improvements will do the trick to make every one a bit happier.
Customer stakes:
Not going to open this up too much as it is a sensitive issue for many of us, but there is a massive difference from a regular working man´s fun bets into top professionals and the customer base can be divided in two completely different groups that I both appreciate. Nothing new there actually, except that there were surprisingly small number of the stakes in the neighbourhood of 200-400 € which I haed expected to be the biggest group. For many of you early asian prices are no problem, and for others placing a wanted stake is not at all easy until 1h to kick-off or live when limits are higher. Different needs there. Very different.
Service price:
The previous question naturally reflects the answers to this and the pricing issue remains. I do not want to be the greedy bastard here as I have always respected the ordinary man and the idea that information should actually be free. Still having too low prices make the pros suffer and the other way around if the customer base is too big and the info is spread all over the world. Average price is the worst and it is what I have been offering for a long time but the average Joe does not seem to exist at all! Price is also an image factor and having too low and user-friendly prices gives the impression of low quality. A problem. I should optimize this for myself as it is the only source of even relatively secure income I have had for th past 5 years to pay the bills but I am too soft for my own good.
Two differently priced products are actually needed to serve all. I have to put my mind into this and any ideas are always welcome but it looks like that the first step is to rise the price for the service even if some of the old long-term customers in the other end of this scale suffer. Hopefully there is a win-win situation waiting behind the corner and we can work this out.
Bookies:
Sbo and Pinnacle are unsurprisingly the top bookies, but quite a many do also have Singbet and IBC accounts. Bet365 was mentioned separately from eurobookies, as well as Veikkaus but their odds are not useful to international audience. Any mad odds at Veikkaus will be mentioned however also in the future for the handful of Finns using this service but foreign customers are not allowed to bet there.
Monthly subscriptions are wanted and personally I like to keep them available too. Possibly only those after the preseason as the busy season service sometimes is a killer and it is relief to know that a break can taken. This preseason time makes monthly a bad option as there is very little point in selling for example February only as it would not bring the informational value needed for a season preparation, only some odd bets. Of course it can be used a partly payment or a test for the service. At preseason all the months will differ a lot of one another as some of the clubs are more or less in confusion and looking desperately for new players, and some are almost ready. New guys are coming in every week.
The Free Edition Newsletter is planned to be monthly at 2014 always with some fresh news and of reminding of the paid options. In the near future there will be very little or no advertising for the paid options as I hate it as much you do but sometimes it has to done. Website will be as carelessly and randomly updated as it has been before, and all key info is always reserved for the paying customers only.
Have a great day!
Have a great day!
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 4.7
VIFK - Kerho 07 O2.75 62% 1,82 5/10 Sbobet
Tervarit - ORP +0,25 1 56% 2,00 4/10 Sbobet
VIFK - Kerho 07 -1 1 57,5% 1,76 1,5/10 Sbobet (late start, so no extra bets)
VIFK - Kerho 07 68 17 15
o/u 2.5: 66 34
ORP was closer to slimming the lead to 1-2 until the last 10 minutes than VIFK was to widen it, but overall there wasn't any doubt that the visitors were going to win the game. VIFK has had some fortunate bounces go their way and I still don't believe that they're going to be ahead YPA and PS Kemi when the season's over, but today's game should not pose that much trouble for them. After playing very good in the first five matches or so, Kerho 07 has really come down to earth lately. Last week they were even outplayed by PK-37 of all teams, so if no improvement happens you wouldn't expect them to get anything from VIFK. However, Kerho 07 is still couple of steps above the worst teams, meaning somewhere around the middle depending on their line-up, so I personally wouldn't be interested in VIFK -1,25 or anything higher than that. VIFK will probably be able to play with pretty much their best squad, and as usual, Kerho 07 loan players are shrouded in mystery. If the current odds hold up, the total line could be 2.75. VIFK is still an under team for me, but their recent visitations here have been encouraging enough that the idea of playing an over for their game is not that outrageous anymore. Kerho 07's match against ORP was very under-like, while the PK-37 game was the total opposite of that so the results can be misleading sometimes. But anyway, Kerho 07's situation should still be the same, as in middle of the pack when it comes to totals.
Tervarit - ORPa 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31
A rather easy match to predict in the sense that both teams are playing equally awful right now and thus neither has earned the right to consider them as favorites. If you wanted to nitpick then ORP might get a slight nod, just because they haven't been blown out as often as Tervarit. Bookies have managed to price ORP as relatively clear favorites when truthfully there should be nothing separating these two in terms of class despite the points difference in the table. However, does that mean Tervarit would be an excellent bet? My answer would be not really, since we're still dealing with teams that are playing some terrible football at the moment, so the idea of putting anything on either of them is not appealing at all. ORP misses their first-choice goalkeeper Rönkkö, which is a big blow for them. Worth of note is also the departure of De Souza, who was quite good in the first month. Tervarit will probably have at least half a dozen missing players, which in itself is nothing new, but Ogbuefi being suspended is going to hurt them a lot (more than Rönkkö for ORP). Total is quite tough to predict, both teams have been mostly conceding goals for the last month, so who knows whether it's the poor offenses or the defenses that win in this type of match. Tervarit does not do much good with a draw so some urgency is to be expected from them, the team news also favor the over but even 3.0 line would be a very small bet. In any case, I'd prefer to leave the total for live betting since the opportunity is there to see how the match starts and develops.
Tervarit - ORP +0,25 1 56% 2,00 4/10 Sbobet
VIFK - Kerho 07 -1 1 57,5% 1,76 1,5/10 Sbobet (late start, so no extra bets)
VIFK - Kerho 07 68 17 15
o/u 2.5: 66 34
ORP was closer to slimming the lead to 1-2 until the last 10 minutes than VIFK was to widen it, but overall there wasn't any doubt that the visitors were going to win the game. VIFK has had some fortunate bounces go their way and I still don't believe that they're going to be ahead YPA and PS Kemi when the season's over, but today's game should not pose that much trouble for them. After playing very good in the first five matches or so, Kerho 07 has really come down to earth lately. Last week they were even outplayed by PK-37 of all teams, so if no improvement happens you wouldn't expect them to get anything from VIFK. However, Kerho 07 is still couple of steps above the worst teams, meaning somewhere around the middle depending on their line-up, so I personally wouldn't be interested in VIFK -1,25 or anything higher than that. VIFK will probably be able to play with pretty much their best squad, and as usual, Kerho 07 loan players are shrouded in mystery. If the current odds hold up, the total line could be 2.75. VIFK is still an under team for me, but their recent visitations here have been encouraging enough that the idea of playing an over for their game is not that outrageous anymore. Kerho 07's match against ORP was very under-like, while the PK-37 game was the total opposite of that so the results can be misleading sometimes. But anyway, Kerho 07's situation should still be the same, as in middle of the pack when it comes to totals.
Tervarit - ORPa 40 20 40
o/u 2.5: 69 31
A rather easy match to predict in the sense that both teams are playing equally awful right now and thus neither has earned the right to consider them as favorites. If you wanted to nitpick then ORP might get a slight nod, just because they haven't been blown out as often as Tervarit. Bookies have managed to price ORP as relatively clear favorites when truthfully there should be nothing separating these two in terms of class despite the points difference in the table. However, does that mean Tervarit would be an excellent bet? My answer would be not really, since we're still dealing with teams that are playing some terrible football at the moment, so the idea of putting anything on either of them is not appealing at all. ORP misses their first-choice goalkeeper Rönkkö, which is a big blow for them. Worth of note is also the departure of De Souza, who was quite good in the first month. Tervarit will probably have at least half a dozen missing players, which in itself is nothing new, but Ogbuefi being suspended is going to hurt them a lot (more than Rönkkö for ORP). Total is quite tough to predict, both teams have been mostly conceding goals for the last month, so who knows whether it's the poor offenses or the defenses that win in this type of match. Tervarit does not do much good with a draw so some urgency is to be expected from them, the team news also favor the over but even 3.0 line would be a very small bet. In any case, I'd prefer to leave the total for live betting since the opportunity is there to see how the match starts and develops.
3.7.2013
IFK Mariehamn arrive to Azerbaidzhan to meet Inter Baku
Wondering a bit about the the chosen background music as the lyrics talk allegedly about lesbian love.
2.7.2013
Idiot of the week
Funny how all the weekly idiots seem to be found at HJK home games. Strange fan indeed.
Strange HJK fan falling head over heels with Savage's goal yesterday pic.twitter.com/FPeK672W6N (Brilliant photo via @mplaakso) #veikkausliiga
HJK vs Lahti highlights FT 2-1
Highlights so long that you can almost say that you have watched the entire game.
HJK´s away game vs TPS on Monday has been rescheduled for later because of TPS´ European campaign.
HJK´s away game vs TPS on Monday has been rescheduled for later because of TPS´ European campaign.
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