Kakkonen Pohjoinen 31.5

Kerho 07 - TP-47 -0,5 1 58% 1,86 3,5/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - TP-47 O3.25 61% 1,81 7/10 188Bet


Kerho 07 - TP-47 58 18 24
o/u 2.5: 75 25

Against Tervarit, Kerho 07 certainly looked like a team that deserves their shared top position, though the quality of their opposition should obviously be taken in account. Kerho's preview talks about the possibility of Caumo returning, so if their line-up is otherwise intact I'd be very tempted to play them with 1.90 type odds. TP-47's quality is still a little bit of a mystery, they took care of the poor teams and while they were better than their opponents the games were not decided until very late in the 2nd half. Winning VIFK has proven impossible for other teams so far, but TP-47 easily beat them, and in their two recent losses against YPA and PS Kemi they weren't that far behind. However, still in the overall picture, half of the teams (YPA, Kemi, VIFK, Kerho 07, GBK) are probably better than TP-47, but the line-ups might again decide whether the odds for Kerho 07 are enough. Much tastier option would be the over, TP-47's matches have continued to be goalfests which is still somewhat surprising, though the preseason was quite similar so maybe it's not just variance in play. While Kerho 07 will likely not generate so many easy chances that they had against Tervarit, I don't see why they wouldn't have a fairly good chance to continue their over streak when playing against over-like teams. e: TP-47 is missing some players, who are not necessarily their key players, but it's enough to play SJK/2 at the moment.

Veikkausliiga odds May 29th

We just played a round, didnt we?

Finland : Veikkausliiga - Odds From -1Bet.com-
Time GMT+0	Betting event	Current		Open		Total Line		Over/Under
		spread	odds	spread	odds	current	open	type	current	open
Finland : Veikkausliiga - 29/05/2013
16:30	Honka Espoo	-0.5	1.920	-0.5	1.920	2.5	2.5	over	2.050	2.050
	Lahti	+0.5	2.000	+0.5	2.000			under	1.850	1.850
16:30	JJK Jyvaskyla	+0.75	2.000	+0.75	1.980	2.75	2.75	over	2.110	2.110
	HJK Helsinki	-0.75	1.920	-0.75	1.940			under	1.800	1.800
16:30	KuPS	0	1.850	0	1.870	2.5	2.5	over	2.060	2.060
	Inter Turku	0	2.080	0	2.050			under	1.840	1.840
16:30	RoPS Rovaniemi	0	2.020	0	2.020	2.5	2.5	over	2.050	2.050
	Mypa	0	1.900	0	1.900			under	1.850	1.850
16:30	TPS Turku	-0.75	1.970	-0.75	1.970	2.5	2.5	over	2.060	2.060
	IFK Mariehamn	+0.75	1.950	+0.75	1.950			under	1.840	1.840
16:30	Vaasa VPS	-0.5	2.080	-0.5	2.020	2.5	2.5	over	2.180	2.180
	Jaro	+0.5	1.850	+0.5	1.900			under	1.750	1.750

Idiot of the week

pic from RoPS website

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.5

VIFK - FC YPA +0,5 2 61% 1,85 6/10 Sbobet

VIFK - FC YPA 39 21 40
o/u 2.5: 68 32

VIFK continues to be a tough team to beat, but for at least until 20.6 I'm not taking them 100% seriously when considering the promotion candidates of this year's Kakkonen. Because it's so early in the season I could be horribly wrong with that sentiment, but I don't find it surprising that they haven't beaten any of the good teams (Kerho 07, PS Kemi, TP-47) they've faced so far. YPA suffered from a poor attitude in the first half against KPV, and while they didn't play that good in the second half either they still managed to scrape the win. This time there should be no danger of underestimating the opponent, so a better team combined with a better form means that I don't have any reservations in rating the visitors as small favorites. VIFK dislike aside, last week's VIFK-PS Kemi was pretty similar to this, so it would not be totally unreasonable to consider VIFK as tiny favorites either. Total matches last week too with VIFK being a clear under team and YPA likely the opposite of that. 

Unavailable:

GBK - ORPa 80 12 8
o/u 2.5: 72 28

GBK folded like a Dressman suit in the second half against Kerho 07, but I'd expect that to just be a temporary misstep for them, so this should be a very easy win for the hosts as the class difference is massive in GBK's favor. ORPa didn't play that bad against PK-37, but scoring goals proved again to be too difficult for them. Some of it could be attributed to bad luck, but the fact is that ORPa just doesn't have enough quality in their team so it doesn't come as a surprise that they keep missing the chances that they are given. ORP missed Ahonen and Tenkula from their last match, of whom the first one could be considered a key player. GBK's cb Corcoran is still out,  otherwise they are at full strength. ORP's defense has been rock-solid so far with their experienced gk Rönkkö in particular being in very good form, so big handicaps or total lines might not look appealing in that light. However, with the exception of SJK/2 they've only faced offensively challenged teams so far so the stats are a bit misleading in this case, and after all the good efforts each one of their matches against a superior opponent has still resulted in a loss.

TP-47 - KPV 69 16 15
o/u 2.5: 71 29

Middle table vs bottom. TP-47 took a routine win against Tervarit and as KPV is a similar level team, TP-47 should have a reasonably good chance to grab the three points again. According to their preview, TP-47 will have a full squad available. KPV almost surprised YPA on Monday, and what makes that impressive was the fact that they were playing without two extremely important players in Myntti and Watson. The odds for the home win are lower than they were in Tervarit match, which I disagree with because I'd say KPV is slightly better team at the moment. However, unless the line is -1.75 I wouldn't bother to play KPV, as they are still a team that mostly deserves their poor record (1 point in six matches). Goalfests have continued in TP-47's games, so with KPV's defense being very suspect against anyone other than the bottom three so I'd take a chance with 3.25 if it's available.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 25.5

Tervarit - Kerho 07 O3.0 59% 1,82 4,5/10 Sbobet
Tervarit - Kerho 07 -0,75 2 55% 1,93 1,5/10 Sbobet

Plenty of Tervarit players disappearing again for various reasons (Blomberg, Vilppola, Pikkarainen, Tervo, Lehtiniemi, Paldan, Makowski), but some do return (Festus, Kuusirati, Ahonpää, Puurunen). However, just by glancing their line-up it doesn't look that bad, so I've cut some stakes with SJK/2 bet, even though SJK/2 is playing a pretty good team themselves. On hunch over isn't tasty at all, because it's not a coincidence that Tervarit has scored 3 goals so far. To make matters worse for the over, Tervarit defense looked ok vs GBK, ORP and KPV, but 3.0 line is hard to resist.

Tervarit - Kerho 07 21 19 60
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Nothing new for Tervarit in Tornio last week, adequate performance but yet another defeat. Some players, such as Tervo, Pikkarainen and Festus, look to be returning, while others like Rova and Ahonpää remain missing. In any case, other than Ogbuefi there doesn't seem to be any players that could be considered key players at the moment so any improvement would probably be marginal. If the last 15 minutes in TP-47 - Tervarit were strange, the same could be said about Kerho 07's last game. GBK is a very good team, but yet again Kerho 07 showed that they can hang with the best of them as they turned a 0-2 deficit into 3-2, which in the end might have been a slightly undeserved win. Kerho 07's preview is full of vapid hand-waving again, so until it's one hour before kick-off it's not that easy to estimate their level. But on paper (vs GBK), Simpanen, Aalto, Goldberg, Muurimäki, Jans and maybe Penninkangas are by my understanding the key players of the lot. Tervarit hasn't shown anything so far to warrant anything more than a 9-10. position in the ranking, while Kerho 07 is likely very near YPA, PS Kemi, GBK and VIFK in terms of class, so the away team is obviously a big favorite in this game. Just by hunch the current odds (1,67 to 1,80) for Kerho 07 don't really feel that playable due to the uncertainties surrounding their line-up, and Tervarit in their current form is an unbettable team, if that is even a word. Despite the TP-47 outburst, Tervarit should be at least a slightly underish team, while Kerho 07 is slighty over-like, so 3.25 would be skippable.

Unavailable:

PS Kemi - PK-37 73 15 12
o/u 2.5: 72 28

PS Kemi managed to yet again choke an away game, this time letting two of the poorest strikers in the group, Lombo and Johansson, to score the equalizing goals in a 2-2 draw against VIFK. Truth to be told, the draw was probably a deserved result if the reports are to be believed. Two of the missing players from VIFK match, Ikäläinen and Spivack should return so they should have the best possible squad available. Even though they won, PK-37 did not play well against ORPa, who are just as bad as the two bottom dwellers KPV and Tervarit. Class difference is massive in PS Kemi's favor, and they usually play much better in their home games so I'd expect PS Kemi to have no trouble with PK-37. However, the odds for the home win look so low that it's unlikely the handicap will offer anything interesting. PK-37 is still a couple of steps above the bottom, so I couldn't really justify the 1.25 level odds as PS Kemi hasn't been that dominant so far. PS Kemi definitely has the necessary potential to rack up similar numbers as YPA did against PK-37 (5-0), but again the total line looks to be too high to have any value in it, even if PK-37 looks to be having some trouble with lack of goalkeepers.

Highlights cup: Haka vs KuPS 1-1 (1-2 AET)

Kakkonen highlights: PK-KU vs Futura 2-2

Kakkonen highlights KPV vs YPA 0-2

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 20.5

KPV - FC YPA -1,25 2 55,5% 1,98 4,5/10 188Bet

KPV - FC YPA 13 16 71
o/u 2.5: 70 30

KPV put on a good effort against GBK, but in the end it just wasn't enough. Now that they are almost at full strength they could be a team to watch in the near future as there's definitely some potential to not be as bad as their current record shows. However, this is perhaps not the game where KPV's results start to improve, as their opponent FC YPA is probably the hottest team in Finland right now. Pejic has naturally been a big part of that by scoring a staggering 7 goals in three games, but it's not like this is some one-man show. Siira, Morrison, Akmetkhanov, Pakola and especially Maluka are very good players for Kakkonen level. Rest of the serbs, Erceg, Savic and Colovic are totally unknown for me, so can't really comment on them. Ahonen has been a regular starter in defense for years and Junno, who had 7 goals last year has already scored three times, so all in all that's a pretty good line-up. But other than maybe Tirkkonen, there's zero quality on the bench so any injuries could really hurt YPA. The first two games did have some luck involved if the reports are to be believed, but other than the last year's disaster YPA was traditionally one of the top teams so the success doesn't totally come out of nowhere (though the team has changed a lot). YPA has been extremely over-like so far, KPV not so much as their defense is ok but they're severely lacking quality in the front. With 3.25, that seems to be the line in practically every lined match, I'd happily take a pass. KPV's Myntti returned to wreak havoc against GBK, YPA has actually managed to release a preview which says they're fully fit, so that means Maluka should return to the starting line-up.

Kakkonen highlights TPV vs Härmä FT 0-1

Highlights AC Oulu vs SJK FT 2-1

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 19.5

GBK - Kerho 07 O3.25 59% 1,91 6/10 188Bet
TP-47 - Tervarit U3.5 55% 1,96 2/10 188Bet
TP-47 - Tervarit -1,25 1 58,5% 1,83 4/10 188Bet

VIFK - PS Kemi 40 21 39
o/u 2.5: 68 32

Conficting reports coming from Östermyra, but it seems like VIFK was slightly on top vs SJK/2 so that's at least better than the two not so good performances against TP-47 and ORP. Google Translate indicates that VIFK will pretty much have a full squad to choose from, so their frighteningly good defense could get even better now. PS Kemi didn't really convince against TP-47, though overall their start has mostly been what was expected of them. The visitors obviously have a big advantage in raw talent, but like said before VIFK is one of better teams in this group so this should be a really even contest. PS Kemi have been dreadful on the road for the last year and a half, so even if the team is not completely the same I'll be wary of playing them in their away games (except KPV, ORP etc. ) unless they actually do some winning.  So far VIFK has dragged every one of their opponents to the same level of low-scoring football, but PS Kemi along with GBK are probably the only teams with which the over in VIFK games could be considered even remotely appealing. PS Kemi goalkeeper Vilmunen was injured in their last game, but the replacement Luukkonen should do fine if Vilmunen is still out.

GBK - Kerho 07 64 17 19
o/u 2.5: 73 27

SJK/II's parent club has had some injuries lately, so while it may sound like a broken record, it's a very good idea to wait until 1 hour before kick-off because SJK/II's level would probably drop a lot in case Caumo, Aalto & co end up playing in SJK/I. GBK doesn't seem to be playing particularly well at the moment, but they've perfected the art of turning tight games in their favor which is after all probably not that surprising considering their success in recent years. SJK/II's games against the comparable opposition, VIFK and PS Kemi, have been quite tight, but if the main stars don't play the already existing class difference would get much wider. GBK talks about defending in their preview, and that does sound truthful, though with the offensive power that GBK I'd still classify them as clear over team. SJK has played some under teams lately so the scores have been low, but at worst they should be a middling team when it comes to totals provided that they are at full strength. 

TP-47 - Tervarit 74 15 11
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Losses have piled up for TP-47 lately so it's safe to say there will be no Veikkausliiga played in Tornio in the near future. However, they haven't played that badly and at the moment there isn't an easier opponent available than Tervarit, so setting them as big favorites is justifiable. TP-47 has had some player movement with Russians going in and out, and former player Isteri making a comeback, so no problems with injuries in Tornio. Tervarit is a different story, with probably half a dozen players being out that could challenge for a starting spot. Like the results indicate Tervarit isn't playing catastrophically bad, but scoring goals, creating chances and keeping their nerves has proven to be an impossible task for them. Until there's some sort of an improvement and/or players coming back, I'd steer far away from placing any bets on them as they don't currently look like a team to back. Hopefully the line is -1,25 or lower, as the home team's situation seems much more stable and if things were normal they'd still easily be the better team of these two by a mile. No strong ideas on the total, could go either way as TP-47 has mostly been a over team lately and Tervarit the complete opposite of that, but they don't really play like JIPPO type of team so the potential is there for more goals, not many but some.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 18.5

Current ranking:

FC YPA
GBK
PS Kemi
--
VIFK
Kerho 07
--
TP-47
PK-37
--
KPV
ORPa
Tervarit


PK-37 - ORPa 60 20 20
o/u 2.5: 62 38

PK-37 has had a somewhat predictable start with two wins against the non-heavyweights (TP-47, KPV) and then getting their rear ends handed out to them by two superior teams in YPA and Kerho 07. Key player Kivilä returned in YPA match, but they got their goalkeeper sent off in that game, so that could be troubling if nobody from KuPS comes for help (Pöntinen rumoured in Twitter). Challenging the top teams will likely prove to be difficult in the future too for PK-37, but ORP is certainly one of the teams that they're able to and should beat. ORPa has so far looked surprisingly good and even in their losses against VIFK and Kerho 07 they weren't outplayed that badly. The home wins had plenty of luck and random bounces go their way, but at least some of it has been deserved as both KPV and Tervarit had plenty of problems of their own. Rian Marques and his free-kicks were essential in both wins because other than that creating any goalscoring was pretty difficult for them. PK-37 has conceded and scored plenty in their first few games, which is certainly not what they're usually known of. ORPa should be very under-like too, so a very small bet on under could be in order if a 3.25 (56%) line pops up. ORPa will likely not miss anyone important.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 13.5

KPV - GBK -0,75 2 70% 1,76 7/10 188Bet

KPV - GBK 12 15 73
o/u 2.5: 68 32

KPV was certainly not a sight for the already sore eyes when they visited the Oulu teams twice recently. Offense that consists mostly of chucking pointless long balls forward and the general lack of talent in the team means that it's not so surprising that they've been garbage for the last 10 months or so. However, there are some promising news on the player front for KPV. Watson was a steadying influence vs Tervarit, where most of the team seemed scared and lacking in confidence whenever they got the ball. Laitinen returned and he does look like a fine Kakkonen level player. Myntti is Myntti, and Jylhä should still do ok, so when looking at the ORP and Tervarit (or PK-37, if they flop badly) squads it's not that far-fetched to think they could stay in Kakkonen. Myntti remains questionable to start, so watch for the line-ups. GBK had some luck in their Kemi win, where the visitors missed two penalties and were generally the more dominant side. Two defensive players, Robertson and Roiko were sent off, part-time starter Halonen remained sidelined in Kemi game. Of what I've seen GBK lately (vs Tervarit and HauPa in August 2012), it's not really a fluke that they've finished in the second place for two consecutive years. Lazy way to put it would be to say that they simply have better players than most other teams, which is certainly true this year, but Lomski seems to know his stuff too. Previous meetings have been surprisingly even, with many draws, and even a single win for KPV in a training match last year, though more recently it has been mostly GBK who has done the winning and scoring. KPV wasn't in that big of trouble defensively in the Oulu games so the new players have helped, but their attack is and will likely remain a big problem. GBK does have plenty of offensive power, and while the defense has some players missing KPV shouldn't pose a significant threat for them. The class difference is big, but relying on just one team to do the scoring is never ideal for any over bets.

ORPa - Tervarit 11.5

ORPa - Tervarit 37 22 41
o/u 2.5: 62 38

Tervarit was the better team in both of the training matches in preseason and they did finish ahead of OPS-j/ORP last year, but otherwise this looks to be a quite even match. ORPa has almost a full squad available, while Tervarit is still missing a handful of players. Can't really say who's a key player or not even if I knew the names, but it obviously has to have a some sort of effect, especially in a three game week like this. Both teams have played against similar opposition so far, and if I were going just by those first three games this would honestly be really really close to a coin toss as the performances have been very alike. As usual, everything depends on the line, but I'd lean much more heavily towards the under. A lot of it has been due to the strong opposition, but goalscoring remains a big problem for both of the teams. Of course, that does not necessarily that it will continue for the whole year as the lineups could change a lot and it's still early in the season, but as of now, neither Tervarit nor ORPa has shown anything to suggest that they should be anywhere near the discussion when listing the over teams of this group. Tomorrow looks like a more interesting day when looking purely from a betting angle.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 9.5

TP-47 - FC YPA O3.5 56% 1,96 5/10 188Bet
GBK - PS Kemi O3.25 59% 2,01 7/10 188Bet

TP-47 - FC YPA 42 20 38
o/u 2.5: 76 24

Yesterday did not provide much of goalscoring excitement, but today should be the complete opposite. Postponements are always annoying and that was especially highlighted in last week's YPA-PS Kemi game that was called off. Now there's just the bizarre 5-2 win against GBK, which could just be a fluke (as in, Pejic scoring CL-quality goals) or they're actually a serious challenger to GBK, PS Kemi and VIFK. What certainly does support the latter, is the fact that YPA's squad is very talented. Most players have either already proven that they can do well in Kakkonen, or that they have enough credentials to suggest that they are at least mid-table quality at this level. But even if YPA ends up very high in the standings, today's match against TP-47 should be a quite tough one for them. Against PK-37 TP-47 were pretty poor, but otherwise they've showed promising performances all spring long. Any promotion talk is probably out of the question, but anything just below that is definitely achievable for TP-47. I don't know if it's the new signing Bobb, but this year TP-47 has been very over-like, so when FC YPA has traditionally been one of the over sides in this group this should have the potential to be a very entertaining encounter. Though it has to be said that YPA has had plenty of changes for this year, so it could be a good idea to keep the stakes low with totals at least. TP-47 has kindly provided an preview, which indicates they have no one important missing. YPA's usually doesn't bother to put up any previews for their away games, so no help coming from there.

GBK - PS Kemi 42 20 38
o/u 2.5: 73 27

The true top clash, the home team finished ahead of PS Kemi last year and also kept their team intact, but there are some things that point to the visitors being the better team of these two. Firstly, their new manager Taylor seems to be huge improvement over their last year's coach. Secondly, they've been the better team in all of their recent encounters (2012 and 2013, total of 5 games) against GBK, even though the results have been quite even. Additionally, Kemi has kept improving their squad by adding a new striker to their excellent striking unit, which is painfully lacking in depth. However, no matter how you twist it, these teams are very even so it would be very easy to argue between 42 % and 46 % for the home team depending on what things you want to put more weight on. Taylor's tactics are still a small questionmark, but this looks to have a lot of potential for a goalfest simply due to the amount of attacking talent on the field. Granted, GBK especially is quite solid defensively and Kemi now has Vilmunen as their goalkeeper, but the previous encounters have always provided goals. Both teams should have all their key players available.

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 8.5 #2

Myntti on the bench and Kalliokoski nowhere to be found, but Watson does start. Doesn't really feel tasty at all but I still hold the belief that the line shouldn't be anything other than -0,25. Kerho 07 missing Muurimäki and Taimi from their previous game, but the former Honka player Simpanen does start.

PK-37 - Kerho 07 +1,5 2 78% 1,46 6/10 188bet
Tervarit - KPV +0,5 2 55% 1,93 2/10 188bet

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 8.5.

Nothing interesting in Tervarit-KPV, the other two later in the evening, if and when the odds come out.
e:
VIFK - ORPa -1,75 1 54% 1,93 2/10 188bet
VIFK - ORPa U3.75 61% 1,96 2/10 188bet

second edit: KPV a possible bet with the raised odds, but only after the lineups. For the PK-37 match the same deal, though with a line of +1.5 1.45 (~78%) it's a "small" value no matter what happens with the SJK/2 lineup.

Tervarit - KPV 44 22 34
o/u 2.5: 64 36

Even at this early in the season the standings are pretty accurate as these two will likely spent most of their time in the bottom third of the table. After three disappointing performances KPV has finally started to strengthen their team. Fielding just local players is nice, but there's very few cities in Finland where that inevitably doesn't lead to plenty of relegations. Last year's key defender Kalliokoski has rejoined the squad, tall and slow Jylhä comes from GBK where he was a regular starter and Jamaican Jason Watson joins from Haka, where he was on trial. Kalliokoski and Watson, who is highly praised, will probably help a lot, and Jylhä should still be a good Kakkonen-level player. However, all of them are more defensive players than offensive so goalscoring will most likely be a huge difficulty in the future too, especially because the towering Myntti suffered an injury against ORPa. Additionally, their only consistent goalscorer during last year, Laitinen, did not play against PK-37. Line-ups would be nice to know because so many of the key players are questionable.

This should be quite similar to the earlier ORPa-KPV match, except that Tervarit is rated slightly higher than ORPa in almost everyone's rankings. Tervarit performance against GBK was quite nice even if in the end the superior individual skill of GBK was the deciding factor. VIFK loss was not that bad either, but going anything higher than 44% (as in, nearly equal teams) would be very difficult. KPV does still have more recent experience from this level, and they haven't been totally outplayed in their losses (ok, maybe against VIFK). Tervarit has been missing plenty of players, but if any of them return it would be just a bonus as this is mostly based on the preseason plus the first two games. Likewise KPV could get significant boost if Watson, Kalliokoski, Laitinen and Myntti all play. Both teams have found it hard to score so far, which isn't that surprising when looking at both of their squads. Tervarit does have the excuse of playing against two of the preseason top-3 teams so it's interesting to see how their playing style changes against weaker opposition if at all, but despite that the over is something that I would not touch unless the line is 2.75, which hardly ever happens even if two under teams meet.

PK-37 - Kerho 07 37 21 42
o/u 2.5: 70 30

Hands down the toughest one to predict from today's encounters. In theory these teams should be fighting for the same positions in the middle table. PK-37 has been a nightmare to bet as they continue to defy expectations by never getting relegated. They did lose a hefty lead against TP-47 but that win was still pretty deserved even if it came at the last minute. KPV match was more even according to the home team's tracker (not the most 100% truthful source usually), but a win is a win nonetheless. Their only "star" player Kivilä was substituted out during the half-time, which could spell some trouble in an otherwise featureless team if he misses this game. PK-37 has been pretty tough at home, maybe due to a remote location, so that's something to keep an eye on. This year's mystery team is obviously Kerho 07 who are closely tied with the Ykkönen side SJK. In their first game they dominated PS Kemi away (though they lost), which probably will be an extremely rare occurrence this season. ORPa match was more sluggish, but they did get the opening win. A lot depends on the visitor's lineup, but if they continue in the same way this should be a very even contest. PK-37 matches have never provided much excitement in terms goals, and that was even more evident in Lähderinne's first season in 2012. With SJK/2 you can't draw many conclusion from the history as their Kolmonen was a cakewalk, but based on the preseason, which admittedly did feature plenty of different line-ups, and the player quality I'd expect them to be among the top half in o/u stats when the season's done.


VIFK - ORPa 80 13 7
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Top-3 vs bottom-3. VIFK deservedly lost against TP-47 on Saturday, but now the opposition will be much lighter for the home team. It's not difficult to see this game go similarly as the games against KPV and Tervarit earlier in the season, that is, an easy home win with a clean sheet. If I deciphered VIFK's preview correctly, they'll miss two regular starters from their defense and their first-choice goalkeeper. On Sunday, ORPa fought valiantly against SJK/2/Kerho in the first half but were overran in the second when Caumo scored twice. Like the other three minnows, ORPa will probably be quite competitive so don't expect many blowout losses, but actually picking up any points against teams other than Tervarit and KPV will likely prove to be very difficult during the season. ORPa is still testing some new strikers, but so far they've only made things worse. Important midfielder De Souza was injured against SJK/2. In short, with few exceptions ORPa's squad is filled with players that would likely have a very slim chance of starting in any of the other 7 teams, while VIFK has routinely been near the top-teams during the past few years (and with mostly the same team). VIFK and Kärde has never been about flashy offenses, at least statistically, so when the strongest part of ORPa are their goalkeepers the under could be worth a small bet in case the line is high enough. In any case, ORPa scoring would certainly surprise me.

Highlights MIFK vs Inter FT 1-2

Comfortably home +0.50 and also over 2.5 was definitely worth it even if it came late.

Highlights Ykkönen; OPS vs Ilves 0-0

Highlights Kakkonen: PKKU vs JäPS FT 2-0

Highlights Kakkonen: EIF vs Gnistan 1-4

Tervarit-GBK

Tervarit-GBK -0,5 2 60% 1,77 3/10 188bet

Would prefer to wait for live, but if I'd play anything before the kick-off it would be the above. Over 3.25 (54%) a slight value, but not too confident about that.

Tervarit-GBK Kakkonen Pohjoinen 2.5.

Tervarit - GBK 21 19 60
o/u 2.5: 70 30

Might not be around when the asians open, so no odds at the moment. This year will hopefully produce better results betting-wise than the last two years just because of the fact that there's many more opportunities to actually see the teams in action. Moving on to the today's match, this is a game between a relegation candidate and a promotion candidate, so there should be no doubts about which team is considered favorite. However, as of writing, Bet365 has actually set the home team as a favorite which I strongly disagree with. To make a short recap of the preseason predictions, Tervarit is a newly promoted team which while containing many former Kakkonen players should have minimal chances of actually finishing in the top-5. GBK has been the second-best team in the group for two years in a row and there weren't any significant players leaving in the off-season other than Jokihaara.

In their first game Tervarit took a sensible defensive approach against the heavily-favored VIFK and lost just by 1-0 after a fairly equal game. GBK's 2-5 loss against YPA looks quite bad, but YPA could be surprisingly good this year and despite conflicting reports by both GBK and YPA, the game maybe wasn't as lopsided as the numbers indicate. But it should be said that despite the small sample size, GBK has been a very slow starter under Lomski as they've barely picked a point per game in April and May in both 2011 and 2012 seasons. To continue in the stats heavy preview theme (still early in the season, so not much to talk otherwise), on the opposite of the poor starts, GBK has been a really good away team in the past two years (2nd/11, 1st/12).

As said, Tervarit squad has a lot of familiar names on it but that doesn't really make predicting them much easier as we're still talking about a team that was just promoted. To make things worse, they didn't play that many training games against relevant opposition either. Closest guess for their level would be around KPV, so when GBK will likely be a top-3 team the visitors should naturally be heavily favored. Unlike Bet365, 188bet and others will probably open GBK as considerable favorites but unless the odds drastically differ, this looks like a definite bet on GBK. The listed estimation might be too much, but with hunch I'd go as low as -0,5 1.75. Of course, at this stage of the season the most reasonable option would be to wait for live odds and reports (maybe here?). 

In the total side of things, the already excellent (best in 11 w/o SJK and 12) GBK attack was improved by the signing of David Carlsson. Tervarit doesn't possess any significant attacking threats and overall it's difficult to see them being among the highest-scoring teams this year. Just based on the huge difference in player quality, it's expected that Tervarit will do most of the defending work tomorrow. Against VIFK that worked well, but then again GBK is on a whole different level offensively than VIFK. The only preseason game that Tervarit played against similar opposition as GBK was vs TP-47 (0-4 loss), but there were some key players missing in the first half when TP-47 did all the scoring. But to sum up, I don't have any strong leans in either way with the total, Tervarit could frustrate GBK like they did with VIFK, but GBK along with PS Kemi should be the teams in this group that are best suited to handle any parked buses, at least on paper.

GBK didn't seem to have anyone of note missing in their YPA game. Tervarit missed a bunch of players vs VIFK, but no information yet on who will return.

Kakkonen highlights Åbo IFK vs Kraft 7-0