Kerho 07's line-up looks good enough, over still looks uninteresting though. GBK misses David Carlsson, so even if the odds for O3.75 have risen I don't think there's a need for any additional stakes.
Kerho 07 - PK-37 -0,5 1 54% 2,25 4/10 Sbobet
30.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 30.6
KPV - Tervarit -0,75 1 58% 1,84 4/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - GBK O3.75 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - GBK -1,5 1 59,5% 1,99 6/10 Sbobet
ORP - VIFK U3.25 54% 1,91 2/10 188Bet
ORP - VIFK -1,25 2 55,5% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
KPV - Tervarit 63 18 19
o/u 2.5: 67 33
After two dominating performances KPV got a bit lucky in Monday's PK-37 win. Some weeks ago this would have looked like a very tight match, but KPV's has fully overturned their season around so the home side is understandably a much bigger favorite now. However, the odds for the home win are so low at the moment that it's not really a comfortable thought to take KPV with a -0,75 handicap or higher because they are still a quite limited team. Tervarit almost grabbed their first win against GBK, but the usual late goal in Kakkonen was their downfall so the celebrations will come in some other time. Whether the close call was because of improving form of Tervarit or just GBK being even worse than expected is still a bit unclear, so any Tervarit selections are still far away. KPV doesn't seem to have any significant injuries, Tervarit did not have any substitutes on the bench in GBK game, but the situation isn't as bad as it looks. Most players, who could actually contribute something were on the field, and the missing players have played minimal minutes so the situation is actually quite stable. Like most games today, I'd lean towards the under with the total. GBK, PS Kemi, YPA and TP-47 are the clear over teams of the group, while PK-37 and VIFK are usually the opposites of those four. From the rest, ORP in their current form seems below average and Kerho 07 with their best squad should be above the middle. A lot depends on the matchups too, and in a match like this between two relatively poor teams the line should be 2.75 to make the over an interesting choice.
Kerho 07 - PK-37 54 20 26
o/u 2.5: 67 33
Kerho 07 looked really average against ORP on Monday, but even that was enough because their opponents are playing Kolmonen level football right now. Their recent losing streak did feature many of the quality teams so some of their poor form could be excused with. SJK injuries mean that Caumo, Goldberg and maybe others too, have been called up so they could look like a quite different team in this match. PK-37 has had some bad luck lately, but their overall record is still a pretty truthful assessment of their quality. Some guys are missing according to the forum talk, and of those Kivilä is probably the most significant. Even with a weakened squad Kerho 07 should still be a better team of these two, and in normal circumstances the 1,90 and so that is available would be more than enough. But as of now, until the lineups are known I'm not going to bother with this game. Kerho 07 without their SJK stars does still have some talent offensively, but overall this game too smells very under-like. In ORP match Kerho 07 was very efficient in finishing by scoring from almost every chance, and the game as a whole had very few opportunities in terms of goalscoring opportunities. In their recent games PK-37 has rediscovered their scoring touch, or more accurately the lack of it. Additionally, their defense has reverted to last year's form so the notion of this game turning into a one or two goal "thriller" would not surprise that much.
PS Kemi - GBK 78 12 10
o/u 2.5: 80 20
PS Kemi bowed to a superior opponent last round, but this should see a easy return to winning ways. Their key players are set to return for this match, though some semi important players such as Spivack and Ions are probably out. GBK's good performance against YPA was a distant memory in the Tervarit match, as their defense again gifted two goals to their opponents. Going against the form worked in ORP-Kerho match, but in hindsight the bet on GBK looks like a really really silly selection. GBK still seems to be a complete mess so until actual wins start to come they should remain a team to skip. GBK's player situation took a turn in the wrong direction when key striker Carlsson did not play against Tervarit, and as is often the case with a team in poor form there's no useful information available in the previews or match reports. Other than that, Melarti, Corcoran and others who have missed matches recently played in last game. Normally this would have been a quite equal match, but outside the first few matches GBK hasn't shown much to suggest that they'll get anything here. Also, PS Kemi hasn't suffered any noticeable lapses this season and at home they are usually really reliable and strong so even a -1,5 would not be that unappealing. Assuming no red cards come to ruin the day, this should be really high scoring game. GBK's defense has been very shaky for a long time now, and on the other hand GBK does have quality players upfront which is probably best evidenced by the fact that GBK has still scored in every match. PS Kemi is likewise blessed with offensive talent so the only thing speaking for under is Kemi's recent defense, which has improved considerably from start of the season. However, the odds for the over are really low and since it's never a good idea to force thing in betting it's at best a medium stake selection.
ORPa - VIFK 12 16 72
o/u 2.5: 62 38
Neither team seems to have any noticeable injuries or suspensions. ORPa looks totally lost at the moment so betting on them is not really an option as their performances have really started to match the quality of their squad. It may be hard to believe when looking at VIFK's squad list, but they are still very much in the hunt for a promotion. Just like the other two top teams, VIFK has been extremely consistent this year so despite what I wrote a few weeks ago, I'd be willing to give them a try even if the line was -1,25. Lately they have been dangerous enough offensively against teams of similar quality as ORP so expecting them to score more than a one goal should not be that much of a stretch anymore. However, this match does still have a very low scoring look. ORP offense has almost literally disappeared as they have not scored in three games and since VIFK is mostly known for their defense it's not an ideal situation for ORP. The bookmakers do know VIFK too, so the odds for under are really low even when there's a big difference in class, so I won't bother with the total with current odds, though I wouldn't against anyone if they'd decide to take the under here. Sadly for this match the best time for playing unders seems to be the beginning of season, when the Asian bookmakers often set 3.25 lines without any thought.
PS Kemi - GBK O3.75 57% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
PS Kemi - GBK -1,5 1 59,5% 1,99 6/10 Sbobet
ORP - VIFK U3.25 54% 1,91 2/10 188Bet
ORP - VIFK -1,25 2 55,5% 1,97 5/10 Sbobet
KPV - Tervarit 63 18 19
o/u 2.5: 67 33
After two dominating performances KPV got a bit lucky in Monday's PK-37 win. Some weeks ago this would have looked like a very tight match, but KPV's has fully overturned their season around so the home side is understandably a much bigger favorite now. However, the odds for the home win are so low at the moment that it's not really a comfortable thought to take KPV with a -0,75 handicap or higher because they are still a quite limited team. Tervarit almost grabbed their first win against GBK, but the usual late goal in Kakkonen was their downfall so the celebrations will come in some other time. Whether the close call was because of improving form of Tervarit or just GBK being even worse than expected is still a bit unclear, so any Tervarit selections are still far away. KPV doesn't seem to have any significant injuries, Tervarit did not have any substitutes on the bench in GBK game, but the situation isn't as bad as it looks. Most players, who could actually contribute something were on the field, and the missing players have played minimal minutes so the situation is actually quite stable. Like most games today, I'd lean towards the under with the total. GBK, PS Kemi, YPA and TP-47 are the clear over teams of the group, while PK-37 and VIFK are usually the opposites of those four. From the rest, ORP in their current form seems below average and Kerho 07 with their best squad should be above the middle. A lot depends on the matchups too, and in a match like this between two relatively poor teams the line should be 2.75 to make the over an interesting choice.
Kerho 07 - PK-37 54 20 26
o/u 2.5: 67 33
Kerho 07 looked really average against ORP on Monday, but even that was enough because their opponents are playing Kolmonen level football right now. Their recent losing streak did feature many of the quality teams so some of their poor form could be excused with. SJK injuries mean that Caumo, Goldberg and maybe others too, have been called up so they could look like a quite different team in this match. PK-37 has had some bad luck lately, but their overall record is still a pretty truthful assessment of their quality. Some guys are missing according to the forum talk, and of those Kivilä is probably the most significant. Even with a weakened squad Kerho 07 should still be a better team of these two, and in normal circumstances the 1,90 and so that is available would be more than enough. But as of now, until the lineups are known I'm not going to bother with this game. Kerho 07 without their SJK stars does still have some talent offensively, but overall this game too smells very under-like. In ORP match Kerho 07 was very efficient in finishing by scoring from almost every chance, and the game as a whole had very few opportunities in terms of goalscoring opportunities. In their recent games PK-37 has rediscovered their scoring touch, or more accurately the lack of it. Additionally, their defense has reverted to last year's form so the notion of this game turning into a one or two goal "thriller" would not surprise that much.
PS Kemi - GBK 78 12 10
o/u 2.5: 80 20
PS Kemi bowed to a superior opponent last round, but this should see a easy return to winning ways. Their key players are set to return for this match, though some semi important players such as Spivack and Ions are probably out. GBK's good performance against YPA was a distant memory in the Tervarit match, as their defense again gifted two goals to their opponents. Going against the form worked in ORP-Kerho match, but in hindsight the bet on GBK looks like a really really silly selection. GBK still seems to be a complete mess so until actual wins start to come they should remain a team to skip. GBK's player situation took a turn in the wrong direction when key striker Carlsson did not play against Tervarit, and as is often the case with a team in poor form there's no useful information available in the previews or match reports. Other than that, Melarti, Corcoran and others who have missed matches recently played in last game. Normally this would have been a quite equal match, but outside the first few matches GBK hasn't shown much to suggest that they'll get anything here. Also, PS Kemi hasn't suffered any noticeable lapses this season and at home they are usually really reliable and strong so even a -1,5 would not be that unappealing. Assuming no red cards come to ruin the day, this should be really high scoring game. GBK's defense has been very shaky for a long time now, and on the other hand GBK does have quality players upfront which is probably best evidenced by the fact that GBK has still scored in every match. PS Kemi is likewise blessed with offensive talent so the only thing speaking for under is Kemi's recent defense, which has improved considerably from start of the season. However, the odds for the over are really low and since it's never a good idea to force thing in betting it's at best a medium stake selection.
ORPa - VIFK 12 16 72
o/u 2.5: 62 38
Neither team seems to have any noticeable injuries or suspensions. ORPa looks totally lost at the moment so betting on them is not really an option as their performances have really started to match the quality of their squad. It may be hard to believe when looking at VIFK's squad list, but they are still very much in the hunt for a promotion. Just like the other two top teams, VIFK has been extremely consistent this year so despite what I wrote a few weeks ago, I'd be willing to give them a try even if the line was -1,25. Lately they have been dangerous enough offensively against teams of similar quality as ORP so expecting them to score more than a one goal should not be that much of a stretch anymore. However, this match does still have a very low scoring look. ORP offense has almost literally disappeared as they have not scored in three games and since VIFK is mostly known for their defense it's not an ideal situation for ORP. The bookmakers do know VIFK too, so the odds for under are really low even when there's a big difference in class, so I won't bother with the total with current odds, though I wouldn't against anyone if they'd decide to take the under here. Sadly for this match the best time for playing unders seems to be the beginning of season, when the Asian bookmakers often set 3.25 lines without any thought.
29.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 29.6
FC YPA - TP-47 -1,25 1 59% 1,99 6/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - TP-47 O3.5 59% 1,94 6/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - TP-47 73 14 13
o/u 2.5: 78 22
Again, there's not much to say. In the top match last week YPA left PS Kemi without chances, and I doubt that even if Eissele were eligible and Pasher was playing at full strength that the result would have been much different. Now that 7/8 of the teams have played here in Oulu, YPA's display is still on a completely different level than what the other teams have shown. They played AC Oulu style short passing without the unnecessary alibi passes in midfield, and as you can see from their results the players actually have high enough skill level to execute that kind of stuff. However, for someone who doesn't understand a thing about the finesse details of tactics, the most striking thing in YPA was their very high tempo or speed which you usually only see in Ykkönen games here. But despite that, I'm still a little sceptical about a SJK type of undefeated season, though OPS/OPA 2009 type of record shouldn't be that far-fetched if the key players manage to stay healthy. TP-47 played a quite tight game against VIFK, or that is if you take the average from the two reports, so the 3-1 result is a bit misleading. Like the hosts today, they're playing very well right now, but player by player YPA is far ahead of TP-47 and given that YPA looks pretty unbeatable right now it's quite hard to make any arguments for away win without resorting to senseless hoping. Goals look very likely to come; in the combined matches of YPA and TP-47 only 4 out of 20 have had fewer than three goals, and even those were mostly against under teams. It would be somewhat easy to continue raving about YPA's excellent attack and rattle off stats supporting the over, but instead of that it could be helpful to look the other way. The quality is gap between the teams is considerable, but TP-47 is still by no means a poor team. In fact, the top-5 position has been fully deserved so expecting this to descend into a blowout (such as against PK-37 or Tervarit) is a fairly unreasonable. Additionally, TP-47 still misses a big chunk of their offense in Bobb, who has scored 5 and probably assisted just as many, and that's not good news against a team with such a quality defense as YPA.
FC YPA - TP-47 O3.5 59% 1,94 6/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - TP-47 73 14 13
o/u 2.5: 78 22
Again, there's not much to say. In the top match last week YPA left PS Kemi without chances, and I doubt that even if Eissele were eligible and Pasher was playing at full strength that the result would have been much different. Now that 7/8 of the teams have played here in Oulu, YPA's display is still on a completely different level than what the other teams have shown. They played AC Oulu style short passing without the unnecessary alibi passes in midfield, and as you can see from their results the players actually have high enough skill level to execute that kind of stuff. However, for someone who doesn't understand a thing about the finesse details of tactics, the most striking thing in YPA was their very high tempo or speed which you usually only see in Ykkönen games here. But despite that, I'm still a little sceptical about a SJK type of undefeated season, though OPS/OPA 2009 type of record shouldn't be that far-fetched if the key players manage to stay healthy. TP-47 played a quite tight game against VIFK, or that is if you take the average from the two reports, so the 3-1 result is a bit misleading. Like the hosts today, they're playing very well right now, but player by player YPA is far ahead of TP-47 and given that YPA looks pretty unbeatable right now it's quite hard to make any arguments for away win without resorting to senseless hoping. Goals look very likely to come; in the combined matches of YPA and TP-47 only 4 out of 20 have had fewer than three goals, and even those were mostly against under teams. It would be somewhat easy to continue raving about YPA's excellent attack and rattle off stats supporting the over, but instead of that it could be helpful to look the other way. The quality is gap between the teams is considerable, but TP-47 is still by no means a poor team. In fact, the top-5 position has been fully deserved so expecting this to descend into a blowout (such as against PK-37 or Tervarit) is a fairly unreasonable. Additionally, TP-47 still misses a big chunk of their offense in Bobb, who has scored 5 and probably assisted just as many, and that's not good news against a team with such a quality defense as YPA.
26.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.6
VIFK - TP-47 50 21 29
o/u 2.5: 66 34
Both teams have been in great form lately and the class difference should be small with VIFK being slightly better than TP-47 so in that light this is a pretty easy match to predict, and thus there's not much you can say. Some bookies have already opened this match and the odds don't really raise any interest as they're almost the same as the above numbers. Team news favor VIFK slightly as RoPS again stole or loaned Treyon Bobb from TP-47. VIFK's defender Lemanowicz, who has been with them forever, is questionable, but if I'm not completely wrong he's not indispensable by any means. With total this is a match between two complete opposites, or at least statistically. VIFK actually looked quite an entertaining side against Tervarit, though they did seem to play more safely than most other teams and their strikers were just as lousy as expected. However, it was just still a one against a poor opponent, so a 3.0 line would not be interesting even if TP-47 is as high scoring team as you can get.
o/u 2.5: 66 34
Both teams have been in great form lately and the class difference should be small with VIFK being slightly better than TP-47 so in that light this is a pretty easy match to predict, and thus there's not much you can say. Some bookies have already opened this match and the odds don't really raise any interest as they're almost the same as the above numbers. Team news favor VIFK slightly as RoPS again stole or loaned Treyon Bobb from TP-47. VIFK's defender Lemanowicz, who has been with them forever, is questionable, but if I'm not completely wrong he's not indispensable by any means. With total this is a match between two complete opposites, or at least statistically. VIFK actually looked quite an entertaining side against Tervarit, though they did seem to play more safely than most other teams and their strikers were just as lousy as expected. However, it was just still a one against a poor opponent, so a 3.0 line would not be interesting even if TP-47 is as high scoring team as you can get.
24.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 24.6
PK-37 - KPV +0,75 2 60% 1,91 6/10 188Bet
GBK - Tervarit -1,25 1 69% 1,75 6/10 188Bet
GBK - Tervarit O3.25 63% 1,75 5/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - FC YPA +0,25 2 58% 1,85 4/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - FC YPA O3.0 67,5% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
ORPa - Kerho 07 -0,25 2 58% 1,91 5/10 188Bet
ORPa - Kerho 07 O3.0 62% 1,86 7,5/10 188Bet
PK-37 - KPV 46 22 32
o/u 2.5: 63 37
For once the bookies have managed to release odds more than 24 hours before the game so it makes previewing things a little bit easier. PK-37 still gets way too much credit for a team of their quality. Yes, they've been slightly unlucky in the last two games and are usually good at home, but at the moment KPV looks very much like a lower middle table, which is exactly what PK-37 is too. While it's of course somewhat risky to raise KPV in rankings based on just two excellent games, I think there's enough margin of error with the 1.70 level odds that are offered for PK-37, meaning that +0,75 for KPV would be more than acceptable. After a strangely high-scoring start to the season, PK-37's last few games have gone more in the way they are usually known, and that is inept offense combined with acceptable defense. Last week's PK-37 over selection was mostly due to their opponents, TP-47, who have been extremely over-like so far. As KPV's outlook is so different now it's slightly difficult to assess their totals. Their defense was pretty good against Kerho and ORP, but their offense has improved equally so as of now they're likely somewhere below the middle. 2.75 might be worth a try, but only as a cover to possible KPV handicap as neither of these teams really play the type of football suited for high scoring games.
GBK - Tervarit 81 11 8
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Losses have mounted for both teams lately so something has to give in here, unless the teams actually manage to play a draw which is an almost unknown concept in Kakkonen. Tervarit keeps fighting hard but with 1/3 of the season now played it's safe to say that they just don't have enough quality to stay in the group. And that goes for both the squad and coaching, given that ORP has managed to gather 10 points with equally poor players. YPA might have been looking ahead to their Kemi game, but according to the reports GBK played a really good game against them. If any of that carries on to this game, they should have a very good chance to beat Tervarit, and even if not, the class difference with these two is so big now considering that GBK is almost at full strength that anything other than a home win would be really surprising. Betting on a team in a six game losing streak naturally has some risks involved, so even if the odds look appealing it's a good idea to be cautious with the stakes. GBK's Corcoran returned in YPA game, important striker Melarti remained out. In VIFK match Tervarit missed couple of semi-important midfielders and Ogbuefi, who was a big loss. GBK has been a over team for a long time now, and while it has been the opponents that have done most of the scoring lately, Tervarit defending has been equally disastrous lately that GBK's offense should have a field day today. And likewise the GBK defense hasn't been in good shape either, so Tervarit scoring is certainly possible. However, the odds for the over look so small right now that it's unlikely anything big will come up in the Asian markets as 4 goals is still plenty to ask even for this level.
PS Kemi - FC YPA 38 20 42
o/u 2.5: 74 26
PS Kemi has rich traditions in fielding ineligible players, but this time they will certainly miss their suspended striker Eissele, who has scored absolutely ridiculous amount of goals (33 in 35 games) in the last two seasons. How it does affect them is probably impossible to estimate for everyone since he has practically played in every game since arriving in Kemi. Another huge blow would be missing Pasher, a really really fast winger, who is questionable to play according to Kemi preview. YPA should be at full strength. Standings don't lie as this is definitely a game between two of the best teams in the group right now. YPA has generally been the more impressive team, and with the injury news I'd say there's enough reasons to consider them as small favorites. But still, anything higher than that would be too much since Kemi is an excellent home tean and there's still lot of quality left in PS Kemi's team even if Pasher ends up missing this game along with Eissele (their replacements, Ions and Yun Lee would probably start in most teams in this group). There are some things speaking for under such as team news and both teams having really good defenses statistically. However, in Kakkonen the meetings between two top teams rarely end up low scoring and neither team did look unbreakable defensively in their recent Oulu visitations so I'm fairly confident we'll see goals today. Though it has to be said that this is a very different type of game than these two usually play since both teams are usually much better than their opponents, so estimating the total is a bit trickier than what it usually is.
ORPa - Kerho 07 28 20 52
o/u 2.5: 70 30
ORP has found getting points difficult lately but the more worrying thing is the fact that their performances have been so bad that the losses have been justified which hasn't been the case before. While some credit should be given to their opponents who are in top form right now, ORP sinking towards the bottom of the table is something that would not come as a big surprise as they've been the biggest overachiever so far. Kerho 07 is in equally disastrous form with four losses in a row, so in betting angles this is quite similar pick your poison type of scenario like in the GBK-Tervarit match. Kerho 07's performances have continued to vary wildly and as they did play a very tight game against PS Kemi they're probably going to really suck today if the pattern holds up. Equally miraculous to getting pregame odds a day before is Kerho 07's preview which this time actually says who are going to join them from their first team. Caumo was very impressive in the first few games, so he should help a lot. Other than Palosaari, all the others have played quite regularly in Kerho 07 so if the information is correct there should be no need for big adjustments. In a normal situation Kerho 07 would be around the middle table in terms of class, while ORP is near the bottom. Since both teams are playing almost equally bad right now the class difference is probably quite similar still, so -0,25 would be acceptable for Kerho 07, but anything higher than that is easily skippable.
I don't really get why the bookies think this game will be more under-like than PK-37-KPV, which after all does feature two of the lowest scoring teams from last year (some things have changed since 2012, but the general outlook is still the same for that match). With Kerho 07 I'm basing my opinion mostly on statistics and the one watched game, but at worst I'd say they are a middle level team when it comes to totals. ORPa does have some under-like qualities such as excellent goalkeeping and a very suspect striking squad. However, like the other Oulu team, ORP hasn't resorted to any Greece 2004 tactics and that really backfired in the last two home games, where both PS Kemi and YPA punished them hard. Now Kerho 07 is nowhere near of those two, but they do have enough quality upfront to make something happen. In terms of playing style I wouldn't classify either of these among VIFK and other boring teams such as PK-37, though it has to be said that sample size is really small as both teams are newly promoted so stats won't support much.
GBK - Tervarit -1,25 1 69% 1,75 6/10 188Bet
GBK - Tervarit O3.25 63% 1,75 5/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - FC YPA +0,25 2 58% 1,85 4/10 188Bet
PS Kemi - FC YPA O3.0 67,5% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
ORPa - Kerho 07 -0,25 2 58% 1,91 5/10 188Bet
ORPa - Kerho 07 O3.0 62% 1,86 7,5/10 188Bet
PK-37 - KPV 46 22 32
o/u 2.5: 63 37
For once the bookies have managed to release odds more than 24 hours before the game so it makes previewing things a little bit easier. PK-37 still gets way too much credit for a team of their quality. Yes, they've been slightly unlucky in the last two games and are usually good at home, but at the moment KPV looks very much like a lower middle table, which is exactly what PK-37 is too. While it's of course somewhat risky to raise KPV in rankings based on just two excellent games, I think there's enough margin of error with the 1.70 level odds that are offered for PK-37, meaning that +0,75 for KPV would be more than acceptable. After a strangely high-scoring start to the season, PK-37's last few games have gone more in the way they are usually known, and that is inept offense combined with acceptable defense. Last week's PK-37 over selection was mostly due to their opponents, TP-47, who have been extremely over-like so far. As KPV's outlook is so different now it's slightly difficult to assess their totals. Their defense was pretty good against Kerho and ORP, but their offense has improved equally so as of now they're likely somewhere below the middle. 2.75 might be worth a try, but only as a cover to possible KPV handicap as neither of these teams really play the type of football suited for high scoring games.
GBK - Tervarit 81 11 8
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Losses have mounted for both teams lately so something has to give in here, unless the teams actually manage to play a draw which is an almost unknown concept in Kakkonen. Tervarit keeps fighting hard but with 1/3 of the season now played it's safe to say that they just don't have enough quality to stay in the group. And that goes for both the squad and coaching, given that ORP has managed to gather 10 points with equally poor players. YPA might have been looking ahead to their Kemi game, but according to the reports GBK played a really good game against them. If any of that carries on to this game, they should have a very good chance to beat Tervarit, and even if not, the class difference with these two is so big now considering that GBK is almost at full strength that anything other than a home win would be really surprising. Betting on a team in a six game losing streak naturally has some risks involved, so even if the odds look appealing it's a good idea to be cautious with the stakes. GBK's Corcoran returned in YPA game, important striker Melarti remained out. In VIFK match Tervarit missed couple of semi-important midfielders and Ogbuefi, who was a big loss. GBK has been a over team for a long time now, and while it has been the opponents that have done most of the scoring lately, Tervarit defending has been equally disastrous lately that GBK's offense should have a field day today. And likewise the GBK defense hasn't been in good shape either, so Tervarit scoring is certainly possible. However, the odds for the over look so small right now that it's unlikely anything big will come up in the Asian markets as 4 goals is still plenty to ask even for this level.
PS Kemi - FC YPA 38 20 42
o/u 2.5: 74 26
PS Kemi has rich traditions in fielding ineligible players, but this time they will certainly miss their suspended striker Eissele, who has scored absolutely ridiculous amount of goals (33 in 35 games) in the last two seasons. How it does affect them is probably impossible to estimate for everyone since he has practically played in every game since arriving in Kemi. Another huge blow would be missing Pasher, a really really fast winger, who is questionable to play according to Kemi preview. YPA should be at full strength. Standings don't lie as this is definitely a game between two of the best teams in the group right now. YPA has generally been the more impressive team, and with the injury news I'd say there's enough reasons to consider them as small favorites. But still, anything higher than that would be too much since Kemi is an excellent home tean and there's still lot of quality left in PS Kemi's team even if Pasher ends up missing this game along with Eissele (their replacements, Ions and Yun Lee would probably start in most teams in this group). There are some things speaking for under such as team news and both teams having really good defenses statistically. However, in Kakkonen the meetings between two top teams rarely end up low scoring and neither team did look unbreakable defensively in their recent Oulu visitations so I'm fairly confident we'll see goals today. Though it has to be said that this is a very different type of game than these two usually play since both teams are usually much better than their opponents, so estimating the total is a bit trickier than what it usually is.
ORPa - Kerho 07 28 20 52
o/u 2.5: 70 30
ORP has found getting points difficult lately but the more worrying thing is the fact that their performances have been so bad that the losses have been justified which hasn't been the case before. While some credit should be given to their opponents who are in top form right now, ORP sinking towards the bottom of the table is something that would not come as a big surprise as they've been the biggest overachiever so far. Kerho 07 is in equally disastrous form with four losses in a row, so in betting angles this is quite similar pick your poison type of scenario like in the GBK-Tervarit match. Kerho 07's performances have continued to vary wildly and as they did play a very tight game against PS Kemi they're probably going to really suck today if the pattern holds up. Equally miraculous to getting pregame odds a day before is Kerho 07's preview which this time actually says who are going to join them from their first team. Caumo was very impressive in the first few games, so he should help a lot. Other than Palosaari, all the others have played quite regularly in Kerho 07 so if the information is correct there should be no need for big adjustments. In a normal situation Kerho 07 would be around the middle table in terms of class, while ORP is near the bottom. Since both teams are playing almost equally bad right now the class difference is probably quite similar still, so -0,25 would be acceptable for Kerho 07, but anything higher than that is easily skippable.
I don't really get why the bookies think this game will be more under-like than PK-37-KPV, which after all does feature two of the lowest scoring teams from last year (some things have changed since 2012, but the general outlook is still the same for that match). With Kerho 07 I'm basing my opinion mostly on statistics and the one watched game, but at worst I'd say they are a middle level team when it comes to totals. ORPa does have some under-like qualities such as excellent goalkeeping and a very suspect striking squad. However, like the other Oulu team, ORP hasn't resorted to any Greece 2004 tactics and that really backfired in the last two home games, where both PS Kemi and YPA punished them hard. Now Kerho 07 is nowhere near of those two, but they do have enough quality upfront to make something happen. In terms of playing style I wouldn't classify either of these among VIFK and other boring teams such as PK-37, though it has to be said that sample size is really small as both teams are newly promoted so stats won't support much.
20.6.2013
Tervarit-VIFK 20.6
Puntteri might already be on vacation, so live update on Twitter if anything interesting comes up. The home team also likely to provide updates on their Twitter account.
Tervarit - VIFK 13 17 70
o/u 2.5: 60 40
Many practically unbettable games coming up in the near future, this match being one of them. Just by looking at the table it's clear that VIFK should be thought as huge favorites, but because of their very low-scoring nature they're more prone to screw-ups than other good teams so betting on them with - handicap is always risky. While the KPV draw is the only ugly result in their record, they had pretty close calls with ORP and Tervarit in earlier games. Tervarit form is still awful, but they did play a good game against PK-37, who is sort of like VIFK lite and more importantly quite different with their playing style than the teams they've recently received beatdowns from (Kerho 07, TP-47, YPA, PS Kemi). Still, Tervarit win feels very unlikely to happen even when looking through semi-neutral home glasses, so any selection would be VIFK or nothing.
Over is almost always a road to ruin in VIFK games, but this time the odds are so low for the under that the opposite option could actually be the selection with some value in it. There is still a big class difference in play, and with KPV now cruising from win to win Tervarit won't do much good with playing draws, and at least in their home games they haven't been parking the bus. VIFK also does have the ability, even if rare, to score a few goals themselves if the opponent is bad enough. However, bottom line is still the following: one team unable to score and the other playing in a way where over two goals scored is a minor miracle so I wouldn't hesitate to skip the likely 2.75 line. Same goes for handicaps over -1 for the visitors. Injury situation is unknown at the moment, neither team really possesses any profile/star players outside Sund and Ogbuefi so couple of players missing wouldn't affect the probabilities that much.
Tervarit - VIFK 13 17 70
o/u 2.5: 60 40
Many practically unbettable games coming up in the near future, this match being one of them. Just by looking at the table it's clear that VIFK should be thought as huge favorites, but because of their very low-scoring nature they're more prone to screw-ups than other good teams so betting on them with - handicap is always risky. While the KPV draw is the only ugly result in their record, they had pretty close calls with ORP and Tervarit in earlier games. Tervarit form is still awful, but they did play a good game against PK-37, who is sort of like VIFK lite and more importantly quite different with their playing style than the teams they've recently received beatdowns from (Kerho 07, TP-47, YPA, PS Kemi). Still, Tervarit win feels very unlikely to happen even when looking through semi-neutral home glasses, so any selection would be VIFK or nothing.
Over is almost always a road to ruin in VIFK games, but this time the odds are so low for the under that the opposite option could actually be the selection with some value in it. There is still a big class difference in play, and with KPV now cruising from win to win Tervarit won't do much good with playing draws, and at least in their home games they haven't been parking the bus. VIFK also does have the ability, even if rare, to score a few goals themselves if the opponent is bad enough. However, bottom line is still the following: one team unable to score and the other playing in a way where over two goals scored is a minor miracle so I wouldn't hesitate to skip the likely 2.75 line. Same goes for handicaps over -1 for the visitors. Injury situation is unknown at the moment, neither team really possesses any profile/star players outside Sund and Ogbuefi so couple of players missing wouldn't affect the probabilities that much.
19.6.2013
Kakkonen update 19.6
Was eying/eyeing this earlier, the only thing that scares me is YPA defense, other than that both teams and especially YPA are very over-like.
FC YPA - GBK O3.75 54% 2,08 4,5/10 188Bet
FC YPA - GBK O3.75 54% 2,08 4,5/10 188Bet
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 19.6
TP-47 - PK-37 -0,75 56,5% 1,83 2/10 188Bet
TP-47 - PK-37 O3.25 59% 1,85 4,5/10 188Bet
FC YPA - GBK -1,25 1 71,5% 1,75 9/10 188Bet
KPV - ORPa O2.75 62% 1,92 7,5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - PK-37 61 18 21
o/u 2.5: 73 27
TP-47 is playing quite well right now though it has to be said that their opponents have been quite light-weight or just out of form. Player situation looks stable enough for them, with the exception of RoPS loan players Forsman and Lahdenmäki being shuffled in and out. Both of them are not available as they played in RoPS' last game. PK-37 report says that they were unlucky to lose against VIFK, and unsurprisingly the VIFK report is almost the opposite so I guess it was a pretty even game then. In some ways there isn't a big difference between these teams as TP-47 is mid-table/upper mid-table team and PK-37 somewhere around lower half, ahead of KPV and Tervarit. However, TP-47 is playing much better right now, scoring goals for fun (though conceding too) against teams that aren't much worse than PK-37, so with hunch I really fancy TP-47's chances. PK-37 does deserve respect for hanging tough in Kakkonen despite their limited squad hence I wouldn't go any higher than -0,75 with the home team. TP-47 has continued their heavily over-like form while PK-37's defense has shown some improvement lately. Overall this looks like a match between a over team (TP-47) and an under team (PK-37), so I'd be somewhat cautious with the over, though PK-37 should not be as bad as VIFK when it comes to not scoring and conceding.
FC YPA - GBK 83 10 7
o/u 2.5: 78 22
In the opening round GBK was a clear favorite, but the teams have gone in completely opposite directions since then, so even if it feels really weird to think the home team as such huge favorites there's really nothing good going on for GBK that suggests they will get anything from YPA. YPA was miles ahead of any other team (including PS Kemi) that has visited Oulu when they dominated ORP last Sunday so them being in the top position doesn't really surprise anymore. GBK's defense was in shambles again as they gifted a handful of goals to TP-47, but even without the gifts they didn't really deserve to get anything from that game. Their form continues to be abysmal, though GBK being relegated still feels pretty unlikely to happen as there's just too much quality in the team compared to what the other bottom feeders possess. Melarti was subbed in in the last game, so other than Corcoran they have most of their key players available. YPA has no significant injuries outside Siira. It's interesting to see where the line will be set at, if there will be odds at all, but the choice will again be home team or nothing until GBK starts to show their potential (though I do have to admit betting against GBK feels like playing with fire, but like said they're really poor right now) . Assuming GBK's defense continues their antics YPA should just destroy them, though YPA defense did look just as good as the four conceded goals suggest so expecting one team to score four is still asking a lot. One small curiosity is the fact that half of the goals conceded by YPA were against GBK, and the fact is still that GBK has plenty of quality in offense and despite their poor form they've always scored at least one goal in every game.
KPV - ORPa 43 21 36
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Really tricky game with big relegation implications. I might have given too much credit for KPV's win against Kerho 07, but their team does look quite different now than what it was a month ago. In their last game KPV unveiled Tshibasu, who was a complete tourist in Ykkönen when playing with OPS but he was almost unstoppable against Kerho 07 which probably tells a lot about the difference between Ykkönen and Kakkonen. Now almost half of their team looks to have enough quality to play in Kakkonen so in that light the 5 points they've gathered so far is slightly misleading. ORP was totally outplayed by YPA, but if they didn't lose all of their confidence in that game they should provide a very stiff opposition for KPV. Before YPA game they played very even and equal matches, and the losses were in most cases not really deserved (such as VIFK, PK-37 and maybe PS Kemi). In any case, class difference should be quite minimal, ORPa is maybe slightly in better form but KPV does have potential to be better than what table shows so I can't really think ORP as clear favorites like Bet365 has the odds set at the moment. Total looks like it could go either way too. KPV especially has not been an offensive juggernaut, but the improved outlook of the team means that they should not be as hopeless offensively as they have been, and on the other hand they do have enough quality in their defense to not leak goals against the poor teams. ORP's Rönkkö is still in magnificent form and similarly to KPV their defense hasn't broken down that badly against other bottom teams. More than KPV, ORP has shown flashes of good offensive play so to sum up I'd be willing to try o3.0, but not anything higher than that. KPV's cb Kalliokoski is doubtful to play, ORP does not have any significant injuries.
TP-47 - PK-37 O3.25 59% 1,85 4,5/10 188Bet
FC YPA - GBK -1,25 1 71,5% 1,75 9/10 188Bet
KPV - ORPa O2.75 62% 1,92 7,5/10 Sbobet
TP-47 - PK-37 61 18 21
o/u 2.5: 73 27
TP-47 is playing quite well right now though it has to be said that their opponents have been quite light-weight or just out of form. Player situation looks stable enough for them, with the exception of RoPS loan players Forsman and Lahdenmäki being shuffled in and out. Both of them are not available as they played in RoPS' last game. PK-37 report says that they were unlucky to lose against VIFK, and unsurprisingly the VIFK report is almost the opposite so I guess it was a pretty even game then. In some ways there isn't a big difference between these teams as TP-47 is mid-table/upper mid-table team and PK-37 somewhere around lower half, ahead of KPV and Tervarit. However, TP-47 is playing much better right now, scoring goals for fun (though conceding too) against teams that aren't much worse than PK-37, so with hunch I really fancy TP-47's chances. PK-37 does deserve respect for hanging tough in Kakkonen despite their limited squad hence I wouldn't go any higher than -0,75 with the home team. TP-47 has continued their heavily over-like form while PK-37's defense has shown some improvement lately. Overall this looks like a match between a over team (TP-47) and an under team (PK-37), so I'd be somewhat cautious with the over, though PK-37 should not be as bad as VIFK when it comes to not scoring and conceding.
FC YPA - GBK 83 10 7
o/u 2.5: 78 22
In the opening round GBK was a clear favorite, but the teams have gone in completely opposite directions since then, so even if it feels really weird to think the home team as such huge favorites there's really nothing good going on for GBK that suggests they will get anything from YPA. YPA was miles ahead of any other team (including PS Kemi) that has visited Oulu when they dominated ORP last Sunday so them being in the top position doesn't really surprise anymore. GBK's defense was in shambles again as they gifted a handful of goals to TP-47, but even without the gifts they didn't really deserve to get anything from that game. Their form continues to be abysmal, though GBK being relegated still feels pretty unlikely to happen as there's just too much quality in the team compared to what the other bottom feeders possess. Melarti was subbed in in the last game, so other than Corcoran they have most of their key players available. YPA has no significant injuries outside Siira. It's interesting to see where the line will be set at, if there will be odds at all, but the choice will again be home team or nothing until GBK starts to show their potential (though I do have to admit betting against GBK feels like playing with fire, but like said they're really poor right now) . Assuming GBK's defense continues their antics YPA should just destroy them, though YPA defense did look just as good as the four conceded goals suggest so expecting one team to score four is still asking a lot. One small curiosity is the fact that half of the goals conceded by YPA were against GBK, and the fact is still that GBK has plenty of quality in offense and despite their poor form they've always scored at least one goal in every game.
KPV - ORPa 43 21 36
o/u 2.5: 68 32
Really tricky game with big relegation implications. I might have given too much credit for KPV's win against Kerho 07, but their team does look quite different now than what it was a month ago. In their last game KPV unveiled Tshibasu, who was a complete tourist in Ykkönen when playing with OPS but he was almost unstoppable against Kerho 07 which probably tells a lot about the difference between Ykkönen and Kakkonen. Now almost half of their team looks to have enough quality to play in Kakkonen so in that light the 5 points they've gathered so far is slightly misleading. ORP was totally outplayed by YPA, but if they didn't lose all of their confidence in that game they should provide a very stiff opposition for KPV. Before YPA game they played very even and equal matches, and the losses were in most cases not really deserved (such as VIFK, PK-37 and maybe PS Kemi). In any case, class difference should be quite minimal, ORPa is maybe slightly in better form but KPV does have potential to be better than what table shows so I can't really think ORP as clear favorites like Bet365 has the odds set at the moment. Total looks like it could go either way too. KPV especially has not been an offensive juggernaut, but the improved outlook of the team means that they should not be as hopeless offensively as they have been, and on the other hand they do have enough quality in their defense to not leak goals against the poor teams. ORP's Rönkkö is still in magnificent form and similarly to KPV their defense hasn't broken down that badly against other bottom teams. More than KPV, ORP has shown flashes of good offensive play so to sum up I'd be willing to try o3.0, but not anything higher than that. KPV's cb Kalliokoski is doubtful to play, ORP does not have any significant injuries.
18.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 18.6
Kerho 07 +1 a nice value on paper, but not going to get involved due to their form. 3.5 and 1.79 not really enough, European bookmakers have 2,03 (56 %) though the 3.5 line is a bit too high for my liking.
Kerho 07 - PS Kemi 27 19 54
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Kerho 07 was completely embarrassed by KPV a few days ago so they deservedly join the betting black list with GBK and Tervarit. Their form has fluctuated wildly for the past few games now, so there's not much sense in predicting if they decide to show up or just take the whole day off, like they did against TP-47 and KPV. At home, Kemi has still been nearly unstoppable, but due to the postponements they've only played three away games with not so convincing results or performances, so I'm still a bit cautious with them. Only a handful of bookmakers have opened the game as of writing, but the odds for the visitors look just too low to be worthwhile. Of course we could be dealing with a GBK type of freefall, but assuming Kerho 07 hasn't completely lost their skills they're still a quite formidable team that caused (until recently) plenty of problems for most of the opponents they faced. Kerho 07 got a lot of help from SJK last week, but naturally that did not help at all, and the preview again gives no information. Kemi misses two players who are not that important. As has been the theme recently, the over looks much more appealing than 1x2. Goals have rained in for both teams recently, and the only things that make doubt that this won't be another goalfest are Kemi's recent defending and Kerho 07's poor form. However, poor form in Kerho's case also means that their defending has been bad, and Kemi's clean sheets were against Tervarit and KPV, both of who are severely lacking in quality upfront. Both Kerho 07 and PS Kemi have looked over-like, and it's supported by stats too so hopefully the asians will put up a 3.25 line.
Kerho 07 - PS Kemi 27 19 54
o/u 2.5: 76 24
Kerho 07 was completely embarrassed by KPV a few days ago so they deservedly join the betting black list with GBK and Tervarit. Their form has fluctuated wildly for the past few games now, so there's not much sense in predicting if they decide to show up or just take the whole day off, like they did against TP-47 and KPV. At home, Kemi has still been nearly unstoppable, but due to the postponements they've only played three away games with not so convincing results or performances, so I'm still a bit cautious with them. Only a handful of bookmakers have opened the game as of writing, but the odds for the visitors look just too low to be worthwhile. Of course we could be dealing with a GBK type of freefall, but assuming Kerho 07 hasn't completely lost their skills they're still a quite formidable team that caused (until recently) plenty of problems for most of the opponents they faced. Kerho 07 got a lot of help from SJK last week, but naturally that did not help at all, and the preview again gives no information. Kemi misses two players who are not that important. As has been the theme recently, the over looks much more appealing than 1x2. Goals have rained in for both teams recently, and the only things that make doubt that this won't be another goalfest are Kemi's recent defending and Kerho 07's poor form. However, poor form in Kerho's case also means that their defending has been bad, and Kemi's clean sheets were against Tervarit and KPV, both of who are severely lacking in quality upfront. Both Kerho 07 and PS Kemi have looked over-like, and it's supported by stats too so hopefully the asians will put up a 3.25 line.
17.6.2013
Gk Peter Enckelman has returned to Veikkausliiga!
You may best remember him from this Birmingham derby which basically ruined his career in Premier League:
Yesterday it was HJK "keeper" Wallén who did the same. Possibly Enckelmans return was the inspiration?
Yesterday it was HJK "keeper" Wallén who did the same. Possibly Enckelmans return was the inspiration?
16.6.2013
FIN leagues summer market moves are back!
From Monday´s Newsletter:
No matches today. Veikkausliiga odds already out, early birds taken their cut.
This is now summer season at best with a very few other leagues going on and it brings us always some market moves which can be considered strange mainly because of two reasons; there can be big money behind an idea which simply looks wrong; or the move is just way too big and it makes the markets unbalanced. Found this site yesterday which monitors big bets; there was heavy support for Jaro and HJK for example pregame or early on in live-betting. Ibigbets.
These moves - which are a regular part of FIN leagues - are "normal". However they are the main reason why I like to take my bets and picks only after all the info is out there. It is a stupid feeling to take a bet and then see the odds rise by 0.3 - 0.4 in a few minutes against your idea and it makes you think if you missed something?
I do get a lot of questions if I get any idea why there were those big moves but in general the answer is no. They are someone elses ideas, someone with a big bank. Match fixing has not been a problem for a couple of years here, but it always crosses the mind if the moves are ridiculously wrong.
You can expect lively markets now every week until bigger leagues start again; it is a phenomenon that just is there and we have to deal with it. I can admit that it increases the stress level a bit especially if there is big money against the idea I just sold you - like KuPS yesterday.
I will go through last night´s action this morning and hopefully there are enough reports and match highlights to study. That much I know that one of the main ideas MyPa were in deep trouble from the start. Weekend review to be sent when it is ready, but for several reasons, some of them mentioned above, we are not hunting the early odds ever.
Ykkönen round Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds out as well. Match day previews to follow.
Veikkausliiga round on Wed.
Fri to Sunday the country is closed. No football, just nothingness. Mid-summer festivities and the start of the holiday season. I try to stay away from computer myself as much as possible and hopefully I will send no emails until Monday morning, except the review from the Wednesday Veikkausliiga round.
Next week will be a busy one again,the most interesting competition is Baltic Cup for U16 and U18. A nice live betting opportunity and also a great chance to scout young talents! Talk to you soon,
| Finland : Veikkausliiga - Odds From -1Bet.com- | ||||||||||
| Time GMT+0 | Betting event | Current | Open | Total Line | Over/Under | |||||
| spread | odds | spread | odds | current | open | type | current | open | ||
| Finland : Veikkausliiga - 19/06/2013 | ||||||||||
16:30  | IFK Mariehamn | -0.5 | 2.190 | -0.5 | 2.110 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 1.800 | 1.880 |
| KuPS | +0.5 | 1.760 | +0.5 | 1.820 | under | 2.110 | 2.020 | |||
 | ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Jaro | 0 | 1.790 | 0 | 1.790 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.060 | 2.110 |
| Inter Turku | 0 | 2.150 | 0 | 2.150 | under | 1.840 | 1.800 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Lahti | -0.25 | 1.960 | -0.25 | 2.000 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.020 | 2.020 |
| JJK Jyvaskyla | +0.25 | 1.960 | +0.25 | 1.920 | under | 1.880 | 1.880 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Mypa | +0.25 | 1.950 | +0.25 | 2.020 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 1.990 | 1.950 |
| HJK Helsinki | -0.25 | 1.970 | -0.25 | 1.900 | under | 1.910 | 1.950 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | TPS Turku | -1 | 2.110 | -1 | 2.110 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.020 | 2.110 |
| RoPS Rovaniemi | +1 | 1.820 | +1 | 1.820 | under | 1.880 | 1.800 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Vaasa VPS | 0 | 2.020 | -0.25 | 2.040 | 2.25 | 2.25 | over | 2.110 | 2.110 |
| Honka Espoo | 0 | 1.900 | +0.25 | 1.880 | under | 1.800 | 1.800 | |||
| Finland : Ykkonen - Odds From -1Bet.com- | ||||||||||
| Time GMT+0 | Betting event | Current | Open | Total Line | Over/Under | |||||
| spread | odds | spread | odds | current | open | type | current | open | ||
| Finland : Ykkonen - 18/06/2013 | ||||||||||
| 16:30 | AC Oulu | -0.25 | 2.270 | -0.25 | 2.080 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.030 | 2.050 |
| Haka | +0.25 | 1.690 | +0.25 | 1.850 | under | 1.850 | 1.850 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | KooTeePee | 0 | 1.840 | 0 | 1.900 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 1.930 | 1.950 |
| PK-35 Vantaa | 0 | 2.060 | 0 | 2.020 | under | 1.950 | 1.950 | |||
| 19/06/2013 | ||||||||||
| 16:30 | AC Kajaani | +0.25 | 1.950 | +0.25 | 1.850 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 1.880 | 1.900 |
| Ilves Tampere | -0.25 | 1.950 | -0.25 | 2.080 | under | 2.000 | 2.000 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | OPS Oulu | -0.75 | 1.840 | -0.75 | 1.870 | 2.5 | 2.5 | over | 2.320 | 2.080 |
| JIPPO | +0.75 | 2.060 | +0.75 | 2.050 | under | 1.640 | 1.830 | |||
| ||||||||||
| 16:30 | Seinajoen JK | -1.25 | 1.800 | -1.25 | 1.820 | 2.75 | 2.75 | over | 2.030 | 2.050 |
| Viikingit | +1.25 | 2.110 | +1.25 | 2.110 | under | 1.850 | 1.850 | |||
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 16.6
GBK - TP-47 O3.0 70% 1,70 9,5/10 188Bet
ORPa - FC YPA -1 2 64% 1,86 8/10 Sbobet
ORPa - FC YPA O3.25 63% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
PK-37 - VIFK -0,25 2 54,5% 2,31 4/10 Sbobet (can't resist these odds)
GBK - TP-47 42 20 38
o/u 2.5: 76 24
So yeah, not going to touch any 1x2 or handicap bets on this no matter what. GBK got thrashed by VIFK and while the performance wasn't that bad (the game was decided only in last 10 minutes) the results have continued to be awful for the last few weeks. If they were to wake up, they have more than enough quality in their squad to beat TP-47, as they're still basically the same team that finished in 2nd position twice in a row. However, that does come with a small disclaimer mostly because GBK has had some problems with injuries lately (preview gives almost zero information). TP-47 played a very even game against ORP, who are not as bad as I thought in preseason so I wouldn't worry too much about the draw. At minimum they are a middle-table team in quality so it wouldn't be that far-fetched to rate them as favorites since GBK has sucked so hard lately, thus if I were forced to play something then it would be TP-47 or nothing, but like said 1x2 feels like a lottery. Much better option would be the over. Both teams have been almost automatic when it comes to scoring at least three goals, in TP-47's case I'm still not sure why but as long as they keep it up I won't be argue against stats and match reports. As their form has dipped, GBK defense has broken down completely and even offensively challenged teams like ORP, VIFK and PK-37 have scored goals in bunches so it's very likely that TP-47 will be able to do some damage too. On the other side, Melarti (hopefully he plays), Carlsson and co will ensure that GBK has always a fairly good chance of scoring a goal or a two.
PK-37 - VIFK 28 24 48
o/u 2.5: 60 40
Two extremely boring teams so this just screams under and draw. VIFK is obviously the better team of these two, but PK-37 at home is never an easy task so I wouldn't bother with the away team even if the line were -0,25. Other than the TP-47 loss, VIFK has been quite consistent but the big amount of draws, which also happened last year, makes them a bit annoying when finding betting angles. And it doesn't help that they are definitely a top-half team which means that there won't be many opportunities to take them with a + handicap. PK-37 didn't convince at all against Tervarit, and if KPV has truly awakened now they could find themselves in some trouble later in the season. However, they do have plenty of recent experience from Kakkonen, so with their workmanlike and no-nonsense type of team and style of play, they very likely won't be anywhere near the main candidates for relegation. VIFK with nothing new on the injury front, PK-37 gets a KuPS loan in form of Ats Purje (Estonian international).
ORPa - FC YPA 14 15 71
o/u 2.5: 76 24
ORP misses their key player De Souza, YPA has a couple of injuries in their non-key player. ORP continued their good performances in TP-47 game last week, but I don't expect them to have many chances against YPA, who is just on a different level right now. Whether that means there will be an opportunity to play YPA looks doubtful at the moment when looking at the odds in eurobookies, though it will be interesting to see if the asians actually give an -1,5 line for an away favorite. Despite Rönkkö pulling miracle saves after another, ORP has still conceded quite regularly against good teams so YPA shouldn't have much trouble in scoring at least two. YPA defense has been so good, at least statistically, that it makes me a bit wary with over so 3.5 line wouldn't feel that appealing. However, ORP has almost always found the net in their games, and they've played threateningly enough lately to cause trouble for YPA's defense too.
ORPa - FC YPA -1 2 64% 1,86 8/10 Sbobet
ORPa - FC YPA O3.25 63% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
PK-37 - VIFK -0,25 2 54,5% 2,31 4/10 Sbobet (can't resist these odds)
GBK - TP-47 42 20 38
o/u 2.5: 76 24
So yeah, not going to touch any 1x2 or handicap bets on this no matter what. GBK got thrashed by VIFK and while the performance wasn't that bad (the game was decided only in last 10 minutes) the results have continued to be awful for the last few weeks. If they were to wake up, they have more than enough quality in their squad to beat TP-47, as they're still basically the same team that finished in 2nd position twice in a row. However, that does come with a small disclaimer mostly because GBK has had some problems with injuries lately (preview gives almost zero information). TP-47 played a very even game against ORP, who are not as bad as I thought in preseason so I wouldn't worry too much about the draw. At minimum they are a middle-table team in quality so it wouldn't be that far-fetched to rate them as favorites since GBK has sucked so hard lately, thus if I were forced to play something then it would be TP-47 or nothing, but like said 1x2 feels like a lottery. Much better option would be the over. Both teams have been almost automatic when it comes to scoring at least three goals, in TP-47's case I'm still not sure why but as long as they keep it up I won't be argue against stats and match reports. As their form has dipped, GBK defense has broken down completely and even offensively challenged teams like ORP, VIFK and PK-37 have scored goals in bunches so it's very likely that TP-47 will be able to do some damage too. On the other side, Melarti (hopefully he plays), Carlsson and co will ensure that GBK has always a fairly good chance of scoring a goal or a two.
PK-37 - VIFK 28 24 48
o/u 2.5: 60 40
Two extremely boring teams so this just screams under and draw. VIFK is obviously the better team of these two, but PK-37 at home is never an easy task so I wouldn't bother with the away team even if the line were -0,25. Other than the TP-47 loss, VIFK has been quite consistent but the big amount of draws, which also happened last year, makes them a bit annoying when finding betting angles. And it doesn't help that they are definitely a top-half team which means that there won't be many opportunities to take them with a + handicap. PK-37 didn't convince at all against Tervarit, and if KPV has truly awakened now they could find themselves in some trouble later in the season. However, they do have plenty of recent experience from Kakkonen, so with their workmanlike and no-nonsense type of team and style of play, they very likely won't be anywhere near the main candidates for relegation. VIFK with nothing new on the injury front, PK-37 gets a KuPS loan in form of Ats Purje (Estonian international).
ORPa - FC YPA 14 15 71
o/u 2.5: 76 24
ORP misses their key player De Souza, YPA has a couple of injuries in their non-key player. ORP continued their good performances in TP-47 game last week, but I don't expect them to have many chances against YPA, who is just on a different level right now. Whether that means there will be an opportunity to play YPA looks doubtful at the moment when looking at the odds in eurobookies, though it will be interesting to see if the asians actually give an -1,5 line for an away favorite. Despite Rönkkö pulling miracle saves after another, ORP has still conceded quite regularly against good teams so YPA shouldn't have much trouble in scoring at least two. YPA defense has been so good, at least statistically, that it makes me a bit wary with over so 3.5 line wouldn't feel that appealing. However, ORP has almost always found the net in their games, and they've played threateningly enough lately to cause trouble for YPA's defense too.
15.6.2013
Kakkonen Update 15.6
Kerho 07 line-up looks pretty strong, KPV missing Kalliokoski.
Kerho 07 - KPV -1,25 1 58% 2,02 5,5/10 Sbobet
Kerho 07 - KPV -1,25 1 58% 2,02 5,5/10 Sbobet
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 15.6
A very rare sight, odds are available for Kemi home game. However, -2,5 and 3.75 are very much skippable, in eurobookies the over 3.5 is worth a small try. SJK odds were slashed, but before the line-ups appear they were of no interest anyway.
Kerho 07 - KPV O3.25 59% 2,07 7/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - KPV 73 15 12
o/u 2.5: 73 27
As usual, Kerho 07 line-up remains a mystery. Stanislav Goldberg, an apt pupil of SJK school of fake tanning, is probably a lock since he wasn't on the line-up in SJK's game against JIPPO, but Caumo and Aalto were on the bench so it would be surprising to see them play just a day later (Joensuu is still quite far away). If the reports were accurate at all, Kerho 07 actually were the better team in the first half against YPA last week. In second half YPA showed why they are the best team of the group currently when they just overpowered Kerho 07 and scored three goals in the last 15 minutes. Overall the Kerho 07 performance seems to be have been much better than what they showed in TP-47 game, so assuming that the TP-47 game was just temporary mishap for them it's difficult to see KPV getting any points from them. KPV hasn't been playing catastrophically bad lately, and with the improved squad that they now have I'd expect them to have some say in who's getting relegated this year. Still, the losses continue to pile up so at this stage it would be just pouring units down the drain unless actual improvements happen in their results. Next couple of weeks see KPV play against ORP, Tervarit and PK-37, all of which look much more winnable than Kerho 07, so bettingwise there should be better opportunities to come with KPV than today's game. KPV is somewhat under-like, but against good teams and especially in away games they have consistently had at least three goals scored overall, so 3.0 line would be more than acceptable. The dreaded half-loss is always a real possibility with 3.25 like last week showed, but I'd be willing to try it again as I believe Kerho 07 is still a pretty over-like team, and the big class difference should slightly mitigate KPV's improved defense.
PS Kemi - Tervarit 86 9 5
o/u 2.5: 75 25
The current odds of around 1,10 for the home probably tell everything there is need to know about this match. PS Kemi easily defeated KPV last week and as their opposition today is of similar quality, it's difficult to envision anything other than a home win happening. PS Kemi should have almost a full squad available (one suspension), edit: which turned out to be a complete lie, as they do have plenty of players out, however, most of the big guns do play, so even if +2,5 is value I don't think I'm going to bother. Tervarit was very much in the game against PK-37, but I don't know whether that was just the weakness of PK-37 or have they actually started improving. In any case this is not the type of game where it would be wise to throw anything on the visitors because the class difference is so big, and it's not like this is a GBK type of situation where the better team is out of form. If the asians do not open this game, over 3.5 at odds of 1,90 look very tasty in eurobookies. For Tervarit last week's two goal game was mostly due to their opposition, but this game looks to be very much like the previous three matches before that (0-6, 1-3 and 2-5 losses) and I don't see PS Kemi having much trouble with scoring at least three goals. Kemi defense still remains suspect even though they finally managed to keep a clean sheet, so Tervarit scoring wouldn't be that surprising, but Kemi has enough quality (YPA is probably the best at the moment, but Kemi is right behind them) in their attack to go over the line themselves.
Kerho 07 - KPV O3.25 59% 2,07 7/10 188Bet
Kerho 07 - KPV 73 15 12
o/u 2.5: 73 27
As usual, Kerho 07 line-up remains a mystery. Stanislav Goldberg, an apt pupil of SJK school of fake tanning, is probably a lock since he wasn't on the line-up in SJK's game against JIPPO, but Caumo and Aalto were on the bench so it would be surprising to see them play just a day later (Joensuu is still quite far away). If the reports were accurate at all, Kerho 07 actually were the better team in the first half against YPA last week. In second half YPA showed why they are the best team of the group currently when they just overpowered Kerho 07 and scored three goals in the last 15 minutes. Overall the Kerho 07 performance seems to be have been much better than what they showed in TP-47 game, so assuming that the TP-47 game was just temporary mishap for them it's difficult to see KPV getting any points from them. KPV hasn't been playing catastrophically bad lately, and with the improved squad that they now have I'd expect them to have some say in who's getting relegated this year. Still, the losses continue to pile up so at this stage it would be just pouring units down the drain unless actual improvements happen in their results. Next couple of weeks see KPV play against ORP, Tervarit and PK-37, all of which look much more winnable than Kerho 07, so bettingwise there should be better opportunities to come with KPV than today's game. KPV is somewhat under-like, but against good teams and especially in away games they have consistently had at least three goals scored overall, so 3.0 line would be more than acceptable. The dreaded half-loss is always a real possibility with 3.25 like last week showed, but I'd be willing to try it again as I believe Kerho 07 is still a pretty over-like team, and the big class difference should slightly mitigate KPV's improved defense.
PS Kemi - Tervarit 86 9 5
o/u 2.5: 75 25
The current odds of around 1,10 for the home probably tell everything there is need to know about this match. PS Kemi easily defeated KPV last week and as their opposition today is of similar quality, it's difficult to envision anything other than a home win happening. PS Kemi should have almost a full squad available (one suspension), edit: which turned out to be a complete lie, as they do have plenty of players out, however, most of the big guns do play, so even if +2,5 is value I don't think I'm going to bother. Tervarit was very much in the game against PK-37, but I don't know whether that was just the weakness of PK-37 or have they actually started improving. In any case this is not the type of game where it would be wise to throw anything on the visitors because the class difference is so big, and it's not like this is a GBK type of situation where the better team is out of form. If the asians do not open this game, over 3.5 at odds of 1,90 look very tasty in eurobookies. For Tervarit last week's two goal game was mostly due to their opposition, but this game looks to be very much like the previous three matches before that (0-6, 1-3 and 2-5 losses) and I don't see PS Kemi having much trouble with scoring at least three goals. Kemi defense still remains suspect even though they finally managed to keep a clean sheet, so Tervarit scoring wouldn't be that surprising, but Kemi has enough quality (YPA is probably the best at the moment, but Kemi is right behind them) in their attack to go over the line themselves.
11.6.2013
FIN U21 vs Lithuania
Jesse Joronen, FC Lahti
Patrick O’Shaughnessy, MYPA
Thomas Lam, AZ Alkmaar
Dani Hatakka, AC Oulu
Atte Hoivala, VPS
Moshtagh Yaghoubi, FC Honka
Kalle Kauppi, FC Inter
Aleksi Paananen, KuPS
Nikolai Alho, HJK
Tim Väyrynen, FC Honka
Joel Pohjanpalo, HJK
Subs
Walter Viitala, FC Honka
Samu Nieminen, JJK
Felipe Aspegren, FC Inter
Jesper Brechtel, Karlsruher SC
Matti Klinga, FC Lahti
Antti Mäkijärvi, FC Honka
Kastriot Kastrati, FC Honka
9.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 9.6
FC YPA - Kerho 07 O3.25 63% 1,86 8/10 188Bet
FC YPA - Kerho 07 59 18 23
o/u 2.5: 76 24
YPA deservedly resides in the 1st place right now, though the difference between them and the rest of the good teams might not be that big. Kerho 07 made me look foolish last week when they lost 0-3 to TP-47 in a game where the Kerho performance was just as ugly as the numbers were. Before that they were remarkably consistent for a Kakkonen team, with no unpredictable drop-offs in form. Now if they do bounce back and play like they played in the first six games they could very well challenge YPA (Kerho 07 games against other good teams have been pretty equal), but if not, YPA has been much more ruthless than TP-47 so.. Kerho 07 might lose some guys to SJK and the preview has no information on the names, so nothing new there. YPA doesn't seem to have anyone important missing. As of writing, the odds in euro bookies differ quite a lot, but without knowing the line-ups I would say -0,75 and -1 would be safely skippable. Like everyone can see from the stats, YPA is definitely an over team. Kerho 07 is slightly behind of YPA in terms of goalfests, but non-VIFK results and the Tervarit match make me very confident that we'll see at least three goals today.
FC YPA - Kerho 07 59 18 23
o/u 2.5: 76 24
YPA deservedly resides in the 1st place right now, though the difference between them and the rest of the good teams might not be that big. Kerho 07 made me look foolish last week when they lost 0-3 to TP-47 in a game where the Kerho performance was just as ugly as the numbers were. Before that they were remarkably consistent for a Kakkonen team, with no unpredictable drop-offs in form. Now if they do bounce back and play like they played in the first six games they could very well challenge YPA (Kerho 07 games against other good teams have been pretty equal), but if not, YPA has been much more ruthless than TP-47 so.. Kerho 07 might lose some guys to SJK and the preview has no information on the names, so nothing new there. YPA doesn't seem to have anyone important missing. As of writing, the odds in euro bookies differ quite a lot, but without knowing the line-ups I would say -0,75 and -1 would be safely skippable. Like everyone can see from the stats, YPA is definitely an over team. Kerho 07 is slightly behind of YPA in terms of goalfests, but non-VIFK results and the Tervarit match make me very confident that we'll see at least three goals today.
8.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 8.6
Lately it seems that all the interesting games, such as PS Kemi - KPV get no odds, yet a match like Tervarit - PK-37, a match that I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole no matter what, is available. Let's just say that the over would have been pretty appealing in Kemi game.
Tervarit - PK-37 25 20 55 (not played on a neutral field, not sure what they're smoking)
o/u 2.5: 69 31
Tervarit is still playing like they belong in Kolmonen and the results have been pretty self-explanatory lately so no need to discuss them further. PK-37 thrashed GBK last week, but VIFK scoring 4 goals against GBK on Thursday should tell how hopelessly bad GBK is at the moment. Before that PK-37 didn't play that well, so when Bet365 is offering just 1,33 for the away win I'm going to take a pass again with handicaps. At best PK-37 is a middle-table level in quality, so when a top-half team like Kerho 07 was given 1,80 odds when they played Tervarit a few weeks ago (and not much has changed since) you can understand why those kind of odds (1,33, edit: and 1,62 too) are just unacceptable for me. No idea about the injury situation in PK-37. Tervarit misses a few long-term injured players who haven't played that much, the line-up in YPA game didn't look that bad compared to what for example HauPa had in 2011 and 2012, so in theory this could be a tight match. However, just like in GBK's case, it's sometimes better to just skip games instead of hoping that the form will improve. Both teams have not impressed defensively lately, but since the offenses are not that good especially in Tervarit's case I wouldn't want to get involved in 3.25.
Tervarit - PK-37 25 20 55 (not played on a neutral field, not sure what they're smoking)
o/u 2.5: 69 31
Tervarit is still playing like they belong in Kolmonen and the results have been pretty self-explanatory lately so no need to discuss them further. PK-37 thrashed GBK last week, but VIFK scoring 4 goals against GBK on Thursday should tell how hopelessly bad GBK is at the moment. Before that PK-37 didn't play that well, so when Bet365 is offering just 1,33 for the away win I'm going to take a pass again with handicaps. At best PK-37 is a middle-table level in quality, so when a top-half team like Kerho 07 was given 1,80 odds when they played Tervarit a few weeks ago (and not much has changed since) you can understand why those kind of odds (1,33, edit: and 1,62 too) are just unacceptable for me. No idea about the injury situation in PK-37. Tervarit misses a few long-term injured players who haven't played that much, the line-up in YPA game didn't look that bad compared to what for example HauPa had in 2011 and 2012, so in theory this could be a tight match. However, just like in GBK's case, it's sometimes better to just skip games instead of hoping that the form will improve. Both teams have not impressed defensively lately, but since the offenses are not that good especially in Tervarit's case I wouldn't want to get involved in 3.25.
FIN U19 vs BLR
Yaghoubi playing here too so probably he is not in the starting lineup with U21 on Tuesday. Match streamed live at Huuhkaja.tv
Starting-11
12 Otso Virtanen, IFK Mariehamn
2 Glen Kamara, Arsenal FC
4 Tommi Saarinen, FC Honka
5 Nnaemeka Anyamele, FC Honka
6 Joel Mero, FC Lahti
7 Moshtagh Yaghoubi, FC Honka
8 Olli Tynkkynen, FC Lahti
11 Pyry Soiri, MYPA
15 Emerik Grönroos, MYPA
16 Ville-Valtteri Starck, TPS
18 Patrick Aaltonen, FC Honka
Tynkkynen
Grönroos
Soiri – Yaghoubi – Kamara – Anyamele
Starck – Saarinen – Mero - Aaltonen
Virtanen
Subs
1 Karl-Filip Eriksson, FF Kraft
3 Mikko Viitikko, HJK
9 Kimmo Hovi, PKKU
10 Jaakko Hietikko, FC Honka
13 Robert Taylor, JJK
14 Topi Järvinen, JJK
17 Jere Aallikko, Budapest Honvéd FC
6.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 6.6
VIFK - GBK 48 23 29
o/u 2.5: 68 32
A swedish derby. If the total predictions were more or less correct for both of these teams last week, I couldn't have been more wrong with the side estimations. VIFK was unable to break KPV's defensive wall until very late in the game, which seems so obvious now in hindsight because the VIFK offense just lacks the quality required for those kind of situations (and it didn't help that Kalliokoski made a surprise return to KPV defense). That's not to say KPV would've been any more appealing pick, but if anything the draw would have needed a much much higher estimation. GBK fared much worse as they were completely destroyed by a not so good PK-37 team, who eased off in the second half which in turn kept the numbers respectable for GBK. All in all that makes it now two and a half games where they've been really unimpressive so in that light it's somewhat understandable that the VIFK odds are so low. Under normal circumstances I'd only rate VIFK as small favorites, but since the away team is so out of form I can't really recommend placing anything on GBK. On the other hand, for the home team to be value it would require around 62% for VIFK as of writing, which is just out of the question because VIFK isn't exactly in hot form either, so this looks like a perfect game for skipping handicap bets. GBK has leaked in plenty of goals against poor offensive teams lately, so even VIFK could do some damage for them, e: but 3.25 line, no thanks. As usual, GBK preview is nowhere to be found but according to the forum talk they could miss a lot of players. While it's a moot point bettingwise, it's interesting to see whether it's any of the key players that are missing (Roiko, Smith, Melarti, Carlsson etc..) or is it just rotation players, in which case any odds movement would likely be an overreaction.
o/u 2.5: 68 32
A swedish derby. If the total predictions were more or less correct for both of these teams last week, I couldn't have been more wrong with the side estimations. VIFK was unable to break KPV's defensive wall until very late in the game, which seems so obvious now in hindsight because the VIFK offense just lacks the quality required for those kind of situations (and it didn't help that Kalliokoski made a surprise return to KPV defense). That's not to say KPV would've been any more appealing pick, but if anything the draw would have needed a much much higher estimation. GBK fared much worse as they were completely destroyed by a not so good PK-37 team, who eased off in the second half which in turn kept the numbers respectable for GBK. All in all that makes it now two and a half games where they've been really unimpressive so in that light it's somewhat understandable that the VIFK odds are so low. Under normal circumstances I'd only rate VIFK as small favorites, but since the away team is so out of form I can't really recommend placing anything on GBK. On the other hand, for the home team to be value it would require around 62% for VIFK as of writing, which is just out of the question because VIFK isn't exactly in hot form either, so this looks like a perfect game for skipping handicap bets. GBK has leaked in plenty of goals against poor offensive teams lately, so even VIFK could do some damage for them, e: but 3.25 line, no thanks. As usual, GBK preview is nowhere to be found but according to the forum talk they could miss a lot of players. While it's a moot point bettingwise, it's interesting to see whether it's any of the key players that are missing (Roiko, Smith, Melarti, Carlsson etc..) or is it just rotation players, in which case any odds movement would likely be an overreaction.
2.6.2013
Kakkonen Pohjoinen 2.6
KPV - VIFK -1 2 59% 1,86 4/10 188Bet
PK-37 - GBK O3.25 56% 1,91 3/10 188Bet
PK-37 - GBK +0.0 2 64,5% 1,78 5/10 188Bet
ORPa - PS Kemi -1 2 61,5% 1,90 6/10 Sbobet
ORPa - PS Kemi O3.25 57% 2,00 4/10 Sbobet
KPV - VIFK 15 17 68
o/u 2.5: 65 35
For once the current standings are pretty truthful, meaning that KPV has more or less been just as bad as their current record is, while VIFK remains a tough team to beat but just like last year their big amount of draws could be their downfall. KPV's key players were on the field in TP-47 match, but Watson was injured again so it's unknown if he plays. VIFK still misses one of their regular starters from defense, but he hasn't played much this year. VIFK's strength has usually been their defense, so even if the class difference is big in favor of the visitors, which btw is a very common theme today, I wouldn't be eager to play the visitors with a big handicap. As of writing, not many bookies have released odds, but it looks like -1 could available which would be just on the edge of playability, at least when hunch is concerned. 3.0 total line doesn't happen that often, and in this match it would probably be justified since KPV's offense hasn't got any help in form of new players and trusting VIFK to score plenty of goals is never ideal.
PK-37 - GBK 28 20 52
o/u 2.5: 71 29
As everyone can now see, GBK is not playing well at the moment, so with me being a little slow to adjust rankings and generally being anti-PK-37 the real estimation for the away win would likely be around 42%. However, despite the 2nd half meltdown against Kerho 07 and getting totally outplayed by ORP, I probably won't be able to resist a small GBK bet. Starting from the positives, GBK has generally dominated the h2h, with PK-37 only having won once in the many meeting they have had. GBK has also been better in their away games and they've usually struggled in the first month which is now over. Speaking against them is naturally the poor recent form and the recent influx of goalkeeper injuries (both 1st and 2nd choice). Regular starter from defense, Corcoran is also still out. Another defender, Aho, was injured in ORP match. If GBK hasn't been playing good lately, the same could be said for PK-37. In their 2-3 loss against Kemi they could have gotten more since they led 2-1 until 83 min, but according to the reports they basically scored from their only chances so the loss was quite deserved in the end. ORP win was very shaky, and before that they were steamrolled by YPA and SJK/2. Still, they've usually been a good home team and they're certainly a step or two above the bottom tier so I can understand why the odds are so even. Because PK-37 is not in top form either, GBK level ball would be very nice since I still believe that PK-37 is a middle table team at best and GBK is near the top, but I can't really recommend them with good confidence. PK-37 has usually been an under team, but the reports say their defense has been much weaker this year which has also been reflected in the scorelines. GBK's offense should be top notch still, defense misses plenty of players so that could be good for the goals too.
ORPa - PS Kemi 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28
ORPa with a full squad to choose from, PS Kemi should have the same situation unless something happened during the week. ORPa has been the HauPa 2011 of this year by being able to hang on with the good teams and even win them occasionally (ok, just once so far), despite their very limited team. Just a handful of players from their recent line-ups, namely Rönkkö, Figho, De Souza, and if stretching a bit, Karjalainen and Kåla, could be considered anywhere near the definition of acclaimed for this level, but that hasn't stopped them so obviously coaching has played a big part. PS Kemi has had an ok start considering that they're near the top with only 5 games played. Just like GBK and VIFK games, Kemi has some problems of their own which make betting on them a veritable minefield. However, this is sort of a derby so they can't blame the distance or the bus feet if they end up losing points again in an away game. ORPa defense has been almost rock-solid recently, so I can't say that I'd be too confident with playing over. Aside from last week's mind-boggling offensive display against GBK they've not amounted to much offensively, but PS Kemi hasn't kept a clean sheet in ages, so combine that with the excellent Kemi attack led by Eissele I'd be prepared to put at least something on the o3.25.
Unavailable:
FC YPA - Tervarit 85 10 5
o/u 2.5: 75 25
YPA annoyingly (no mention in the preview) missed Maluka from VIFK, although they did get a deserved equalizer in the 2nd half. Whether Maluka returns or not should not matter much since Tervarit is still continuing their KPV-type freefall. They haven't been disastrously bad, but red cards, some bad luck, running out fitness and the general lack of quality in the team have been the main contributors in the many losses they have had. As YPA has been the most impressive team so far, and Tervarit the complete the opposite, even -2 would be worth it. Tervarit defense did look good early in the season, but in the last two games that has not been the case. Part of that might be due to the opposition, but it's likely that the moving of Ogbuefi from defense to offense has contributed a lot too. Barring any more unfortunate incidents with lawn mowers, YPA should miss only a couple of players (supersub Tirkkonen, plus maybe Maluka and Siira).
PK-37 - GBK O3.25 56% 1,91 3/10 188Bet
PK-37 - GBK +0.0 2 64,5% 1,78 5/10 188Bet
ORPa - PS Kemi -1 2 61,5% 1,90 6/10 Sbobet
ORPa - PS Kemi O3.25 57% 2,00 4/10 Sbobet
KPV - VIFK 15 17 68
o/u 2.5: 65 35
For once the current standings are pretty truthful, meaning that KPV has more or less been just as bad as their current record is, while VIFK remains a tough team to beat but just like last year their big amount of draws could be their downfall. KPV's key players were on the field in TP-47 match, but Watson was injured again so it's unknown if he plays. VIFK still misses one of their regular starters from defense, but he hasn't played much this year. VIFK's strength has usually been their defense, so even if the class difference is big in favor of the visitors, which btw is a very common theme today, I wouldn't be eager to play the visitors with a big handicap. As of writing, not many bookies have released odds, but it looks like -1 could available which would be just on the edge of playability, at least when hunch is concerned. 3.0 total line doesn't happen that often, and in this match it would probably be justified since KPV's offense hasn't got any help in form of new players and trusting VIFK to score plenty of goals is never ideal.
PK-37 - GBK 28 20 52
o/u 2.5: 71 29
As everyone can now see, GBK is not playing well at the moment, so with me being a little slow to adjust rankings and generally being anti-PK-37 the real estimation for the away win would likely be around 42%. However, despite the 2nd half meltdown against Kerho 07 and getting totally outplayed by ORP, I probably won't be able to resist a small GBK bet. Starting from the positives, GBK has generally dominated the h2h, with PK-37 only having won once in the many meeting they have had. GBK has also been better in their away games and they've usually struggled in the first month which is now over. Speaking against them is naturally the poor recent form and the recent influx of goalkeeper injuries (both 1st and 2nd choice). Regular starter from defense, Corcoran is also still out. Another defender, Aho, was injured in ORP match. If GBK hasn't been playing good lately, the same could be said for PK-37. In their 2-3 loss against Kemi they could have gotten more since they led 2-1 until 83 min, but according to the reports they basically scored from their only chances so the loss was quite deserved in the end. ORP win was very shaky, and before that they were steamrolled by YPA and SJK/2. Still, they've usually been a good home team and they're certainly a step or two above the bottom tier so I can understand why the odds are so even. Because PK-37 is not in top form either, GBK level ball would be very nice since I still believe that PK-37 is a middle table team at best and GBK is near the top, but I can't really recommend them with good confidence. PK-37 has usually been an under team, but the reports say their defense has been much weaker this year which has also been reflected in the scorelines. GBK's offense should be top notch still, defense misses plenty of players so that could be good for the goals too.
ORPa - PS Kemi 14 16 70
o/u 2.5: 72 28
ORPa with a full squad to choose from, PS Kemi should have the same situation unless something happened during the week. ORPa has been the HauPa 2011 of this year by being able to hang on with the good teams and even win them occasionally (ok, just once so far), despite their very limited team. Just a handful of players from their recent line-ups, namely Rönkkö, Figho, De Souza, and if stretching a bit, Karjalainen and Kåla, could be considered anywhere near the definition of acclaimed for this level, but that hasn't stopped them so obviously coaching has played a big part. PS Kemi has had an ok start considering that they're near the top with only 5 games played. Just like GBK and VIFK games, Kemi has some problems of their own which make betting on them a veritable minefield. However, this is sort of a derby so they can't blame the distance or the bus feet if they end up losing points again in an away game. ORPa defense has been almost rock-solid recently, so I can't say that I'd be too confident with playing over. Aside from last week's mind-boggling offensive display against GBK they've not amounted to much offensively, but PS Kemi hasn't kept a clean sheet in ages, so combine that with the excellent Kemi attack led by Eissele I'd be prepared to put at least something on the o3.25.
Unavailable:
FC YPA - Tervarit 85 10 5
o/u 2.5: 75 25
YPA annoyingly (no mention in the preview) missed Maluka from VIFK, although they did get a deserved equalizer in the 2nd half. Whether Maluka returns or not should not matter much since Tervarit is still continuing their KPV-type freefall. They haven't been disastrously bad, but red cards, some bad luck, running out fitness and the general lack of quality in the team have been the main contributors in the many losses they have had. As YPA has been the most impressive team so far, and Tervarit the complete the opposite, even -2 would be worth it. Tervarit defense did look good early in the season, but in the last two games that has not been the case. Part of that might be due to the opposition, but it's likely that the moving of Ogbuefi from defense to offense has contributed a lot too. Barring any more unfortunate incidents with lawn mowers, YPA should miss only a couple of players (supersub Tirkkonen, plus maybe Maluka and Siira).
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