29.4.2012

Kakkonen odds April 29th 2012

This is what happens when you combine season start and low limits.


Kakkonen Pohjoinen Preview

Preliminary ranking:

PS Kemi
GBK

FC YPA
TP-47

PK-37
KPV
FC Santa Claus
Warkaus JK

AC Kajaani
HauPa


Favorite:

PS Kemi

Currently PS Kemi is looking quite clearly to be the team to beat this year. They're probably not going to be even near as dominant as the last few year's winners have been, but there's quality, experience and talent in every position here. Most of their starting line-up has either experience from Ykkönen or the potential to play there (as is the case with their trio of American players). However, currently they are suffering from a lot of injuries and their relatively good training match results could be mostly attributed to their home indoor field, so don't expect smooth sailing.

Challenger:

GBK

GBK is a natural choice to be the challenger for PS Kemi this year. Inefficient Ebonque is probably the only notable departure, but Tom Melarti should be an adequate replacement at this level. Otherwise the team is intact, so as long as everybody stays fit they should have a very good chance to at least repeat last year's position.

Safe middle:

FC YPA

YPA might have finished fourth last year, but their performance overall has been getting progressively worse, so it's not a surprise that their long-tenured (10 years) coach stepped down last year. Their new coach, as it's usual to this level, is an unknown quantity, and it might as well have been the players whose levels had declined during the past few years, but YPA still has most of that team together that hasn't been far behind teams such as SJK, OPA and OPS. Should be a top-5 team easily since the nucleus of Pejic, Pakola, Heikkilä, Akmethanov, Rönkkö and Alasuutari are still there. Last year's big name signings Mahlakaarto, Pehkonen and Sarajärvi are gone, but as said last year was a big disappointment so those three leaving might just as well clear the air a bit, though the 0-6 loss against HauPa this week was just inexcusable.

TP-47

The superior version of HauPa will very likely challenge for a top-5 position this year too. While there were a couple of tough departures, such as Barsk (though he's still on the contract list), Himanka and Uusitalo, of which the first two were responsible for most of the scoring, they have signed two very good players for this level in Väänänen and Kivilä who came from OPS. As said, most of their team is the same as last year so expect boring and low-scoring games with no fear of relegation. edit: the information from a local newspaper says that they've lost many more players, so I'd drop them around Santa Claus.

Lower middle:

PK-37

PK-37 continued their tradition of having bald head coaches by picking up former AC Oulu player Mika Lähderinne to act as their new player-coach. Nearly everyone (experienced Laukkanen retired, or something) is back from last year's team, and in fact Simo Rönkkö changing his name to Simo Sirviö is probably the most notable player news. The bad news is that KuPS will be having their own reserve team, and without help from KuPS PK-37 would have likely been very near to get relegated last year. But still, In theory PK-37 could finish surpisingly high as Lähderinne & Rönkkö are easily Ykkönen material and if the rest of the team can raise their level a bit they could have a relatively fair chance to end up in the top-5.

KPV

Just a couple of years removed from a promotion playoff to Veikkausliiga, KPV now find themselves back in Kakkonen. Unlike PS Kemi, KPV hasn't signed anyone of note so an instant return to Ykkönen is out of the question. Their player-coach Henri Myntti has returned from an injury and he should be an excellent player at Kakkonen, experienced defender Kalliokoski is also a good player for this level but otherwise there isn't a lot of quality in their squad, though using only local players is something that should be applauded. Training matches have not gone particularly well, though beating GBK in aggregate to win a local cup was quite impressive. At the moment it looks like they are a step above the poorest teams, but relegation is certainly not out of the question if things start to fall apart as it looks like there won't be any foreign help coming due to their financial situation.

FC Santa Claus

Constant bankruptcy rumors have still continued to hover around Santa Claus. Many of the key players have left but strangely enough they have a couple of very good signings in Hänninen (if he's fit to play) and former RoPS man Ville Syväjärvi. Last year's coach Haapaniemi is back in Oulu with his unsuitable tactics, so that could be a good thing. Training matches have went surprisingly well but Santa is probably going to have to fight against relegation this year, especially considering how close they were of it last year with a much better squad. A reserve deal with RoPS might help a bit, but since RoPS is operating with a thin squad that's a big if.

Warkaus JK

Last year everything went wrong for Warkaus after the midsummer as they only managed to squeeze a couple of wins against the bottom sides and then won unmotivated GBK on the last day of the season to ensure their survival. Being the "south" team this year (means also huge amounts of travel), Warkaus is a bit of a unknown, but purely looking at the transfers they've lost their top-scorer Klimov and another regular in Kuronen, but have hoovered a lot of local players from JJK's junior team and last year's Kakkonen teams FC Vaajakoski and ViPa. They also have an agreement with JJK from where they got Eero Markkanen who was very impressive last year in ViPa (9 goals). RoPS reject Marin Gjoca could also be a good player at this level. Just by glancing last year's line-ups one can see that this year's team is going to look completely different, but unless the new players are really good I don't think Warkaus is going to have any chance in promotion battle like Kymppipaikka has predicted, fight against relegation is looking like a much more realistic outcome as there probably won't be any punching bags this year unless AC Kajaani or HauPa flop badly.

Relegation candidates:

AC Kajaani

As you would expect from a team with such a name, AC Kajaani's success will mostly depend on how their foreigners (probably 7 out of 11 in the starting line-up) play. Rest of the players are fringe youth players, unless Kajaani has suddenly become a hotbed for talent, and equally poor older players, who are probably Kolmonen quality too as some of them are familiar from KajHa's Kakkonen years. For what I've gathered AC Kajaani actually has some financial stability behind them and they already have visions of playing in Ykkönen in a couple of years, so their visit might be a bit longer than what it has usually been with Kajaani teams. However, at the moment I'd rate them low middle table at best until there's some indication on how good their foreigners actually are on this level.

HauPa

Magical head coach Paananen has left and defensive leader Räisänen is now playing in OPS. Overall approximately half of their starting line-up is gone and the replacements are mostly their own youth players and Oulu-based talents, who were not good enough to get a contract with upper-level teams. Goalscoring is going to be a huge pain for them again and with Keskinen no longer in goal (unless he's signed) and most of the defense gone it's looking pretty bad there too. At the moment HauPa is the relegation candidate number one unless they can overachieve like they did last year. That would probably involve having Rikkinen, Lukkari, Hanhela and other young talents to fully blossom, and rookie trainer Isokangas maturing into a good coach.


Preliminary total ideas:

Leaning to over:
AC Kajaani (15-3, 6.05 in Kolmonen), it's either a Korsholm-like performance or the foreigners are actually good, which means goals as most of them are either in midfield or forward positions. In any case, unless their Ukrainian goalkeeper is really good, their defense looks very suspect.
Warkaus JK (2011: o/u 2.5 19-7, goal average 3.50), particularly after their coaching change in the start of September Warkaus had some wild-scoring matches. However, lot of turnaround in the team so I'm not totally confident that they'll continue with that way.
FC Santa Claus (18-8, 3.50), defense will be almost completely new, but both top scorers return. New coach is always a questionmark, so safest way would be to wait for a few rounds.

Middle:
FC YPA (16-10, 2.92), last season was surprisingly boring for the traditionally high-scoring side, but I'd expect them to return to their old ways.
PS Kemi (14-10, 2.83 in Ykkönen), defense should be solid with two experienced goalkeepers and a defense line of Juvonen, Hyvärinen and the likes. Spivack, Stevens, Eissele, Torvikoski, Siekkinen and co are good for this level, but I'm doubtful that they will be able to be that explosive to consider PS Kemi as a clear over team.
GBK (15-11, 3.31), almost nothing has changed from last year so middle of pack looks likely in terms of goals.

Slightly under:
PK-37 (16-10, 3.31), the addition of Lähderinne should help their defense and as there will not be players like Kaivonurmi coming from KuPS it's looking like PK-37 might be a bit lower scoring this year.
KPV (12-12, 3.21 in Ykkönen), Myntti will probably help in the striking department but other than that there doesn't seem to be any dangerous attacking threats in the team. Defensively they look pretty average too.

Likely under:
TP-47 (11-15, 2.92), almost the same team as last year, so another low-scoring year is an easy prediction to make.
HauPa (12-14, 2.62), apart from Makowski there's no one to score goals, defense will likely be poorer than last year so away games especially could get ugly. However, unless a complete drop-off occurs I'd expect them to be a quite under-like.

Training matches

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 29.4.

e: PS Kemi stake is 4/10 and FC YPA was 1/10.

AC Kajaani - Warkaus JK O3.25 56% 1,92 5/10 Sbobet
AC Kajaani - Warkaus JK +0,25 2 55,5% 1,90 2,5/10 Sbobet
GBK - FC YPA U3.25 52% 2,01 1,5/10 188bet
GBK - FC YPA +1 2 58% 1,76 1/10 Sbobet
PK-37 - FC Santa Claus U3.25 52% 1,96 1/10 188bet
PS Kemi - KPV -1,25 1 55% 1,93 4/10 Sbobet

PS Kemi - KPV 72 16 12
o/u 2.5: 64 36

PS Kemi's injury crisis has been averted and they'll likely miss only two players. KPV hasn't bothered to put anything up, but I assume they don't have any notable players out. Junkohalli will probably give an extra home advantage for PS Kemi, but the bookies aren't out of the loop when it comes to class differences between these two, so any value bets look unlikely.

AC Kajaani - Warkaus JK 40 21 39
o/u 2.5 72 28

To be honest, there's not much information from which you can draw an accurate estimation on AC Kajaani. They did play two games against Kakkonen sides where they beat an extremely tired HauPa team 5 - 1 in a tournament game and more recently a month ago when they got pounded 0-8 by GBK, though they were missing a lot of players on that match. However, it's hard to disagree with eurobookies' guess at 41 23 36, but I'll be taking a close look on the over as I believe these two have a big potential to be quite high-scoring this season.

GBK - FC YPA 55 20 25
o/u 2.5: 65 35

Eurobookie odds offer some value for YPA, but their training matches don't exactly offer any reinforcement. The just recently concluded futsal season and poor training conditions might have something to do with that, but as GBK hasn't been that impressive either during the winter and due to overall class difference not being that huge, a +1 handicap might be worth a try.

PK-37 - FC Santa Claus 46 21 33
o/u 2.5: 65 35

Normally PK-37 with odds around 2,00 might have had some idea, but this match will be played on semi-neutral field in Kuopio and PK-37 will also miss their best player in Rönkkö-Sirviö. No previews on either side, so a bit on the dark with team news, but if eurobookie odds are anything to come by then neither total nor handicap will offer anything interesting.

28.4.2012

26.4.2012

Ykkönen kick-off 2012 on Friday

Experts are expecting most interesting and even league of all times. This season there are 3 rounds to be played, winner wins promotion to Veikkausliiga and two bottom teams will get relegated to Kakkonen.

Season starter HIFK - KooTeePee is streamed for free at Yle Areena, I am not sure if it is available outside of Finland. (Table from Soccerway.com)


Unibet odds below for reference, needless to point out that there is absolutely no value in any of the clubs.




25.4.2012

Cup 7th round - April 25th 2012


Cup 7th round - 4 games. Hunting MIFK, skipping Inter and Honka and slightly interested in KuPS.



Lets simplify things a bit; Veikkausliiga clubs should "never" lose vs Kakkonen clubs. A draw in an away game every now and then is understandable, but more likely the class difference at both ends of the pitch shows sooner or later and Veikkausliiga clubs should win by 2-6 goals and keep a clean sheet. This time Veikkausliiga continues on Sunday so the clubs try to get out of this round as easily as possible.

Finnish Cup differs in this from German, French or England; a surprise indeed would be a surprise, not something you can almost expect in bigger footballing countries.

It does not happen 100 % always: this season we have seen Klubi04 - MIFK 1-1 and Kemi PS - Jaro 2-2. A few season´s back VPS lost away at Jazz. There are also opposite examples of thrashing not so far away from 2011; Gnistan - KuPS 2-6, LPS - MIFK 0-8? (remember taking an under 3.25 there). Both those draws had a few excuses with injuries and attitude but all the possession, chances and skill is on Veikkausliiga clubs side if they have a decent lineup to show.

However I personally dislike the combination of high handicap and low odds and hunt these kind of matches in live betting, and with some luck for example today MIFK is available at 0-0 @ -1 @ 2.00 after 10-15 minutes but the full-time result expectactions remain pretty much the same. If they "look" good enough  - or live stats support - it is not an impossible idea even to take them at 0-1 lead.

Gnistan are a typical top Kakkonen side, not one of their players is good enough on individual level to play in Veikkausliiga club (MyPa signed one Gnistan winger this season to sit on the bench but not the other one on trial), but with a good manager (Honkavaara from HIFK) and fighting spirit they can perform most of the time on the pitch so well that it does not look that bad, but the better clubs end up scoring from every opportunity given, and there will be a plenty. In short, I am hunting MIFK here with a better price and line today, expecting correct score to be about 0-2. Artificial pitch. According to Mariehamn newspaper MIFK do rotate in-between league games. ..

and the lineup came out as well, changed gk; mf Niskala and strikers Kangaskolkka and Jagne to start from the bench and come in if needed. Strong enough for me to get slightly excited in the hunt!

Atlantis - Honka is a big but. Atlantis have a few veikkausliiga level players, physically strong team with self-confidence and skill - and a lot of hot temper which at times does not work at their favour. Honka have showed their true colours in the league and they are honestly playing rather badly, and I would not get surprised if the Atlantis players, many of whom originally from Africa - would intimidate the Honka kids on the soft surface. Still wondering about whether to go bravely for Atlantis +1.75 or skip this, but with latest performances Honka are definitely not an option in pregame betting.

Most likely game to produce goals but bookies are well awake with 3.5 line.Honka lineup out: Peltonen;Äijälä-Heikkilä-Aalto-Aaltonen; Mombilo-Yaghoubi-Simpanen-Otaru; Vasara-Dudu. Rotation taking place and physically the Honka side is young and weak, but with good ball controlling skill.


KooTeePee are an Ykkönen side and on a good day with a proper lineup it would be easy to say that the line is insanely high. However as local bookie Veikkaus who do get detailed lineup info first have decided to price Inter at 1.15 one can read between the lines that KooTeePee are thinking more about the Friday´s series kick-off at Ykkönen away at HIFK than this. (will be streamed for free, more about it tomorrow. Hopefully it can be viewed also abroad.)  Inter have top strikerSirbiladze on the bench and mf Kauko and gk Bahne are not dressing up at all. Uninteresting game really, but if things start to go wrong here for Inter their bench is almost empty of useful players. One home side player is actually denying the rumours of a rotated lineup in Twitter...No bet here, definitely not Inter Turku with the odds available.

The most interesting of todays games is the replay from Sunday; KuPS - TPS. Highlights from that on website. It was offered at moneyline on Sunday and so it is now, KuPS are two players stronger this time with Zahovaiko and Ilo returning. A few players might be rested, but there are good enough replacements in the KuPS squad. I would like a bit more margin there for value, even game with goals scored to be expected. Veikkaus do see TPS as favourites, I might disagree a bit and  go with asian markets who see this as even at the moment. In the back of my head I see KuPS as favs.

Market moves likely, unfortunately no straight suggestions can be given and it might well happen that I take no bets at all today, but in every case we talk again tomorrow!







24.4.2012

Veikkausliiga 2012 Round 3 Review


Average round - good and bad and mixed performances and bets and the usual big market moves

Check website for highlights

Start with the one game the pisses me off the most, HJK - Jaro FT 4-1. Jaro were at least even and took the lead for the first 15 minutes, the next 15 minutes HJK scored 3 from silly defensive mistakes and the game was over at 30th min. After that it was non-competive non-football and all over. Jaro´s American signings Banner and DeFreitas are probably the most overhyped players in the whole league right now, Banner as a left-back was a constant hazard and the other fellow never touched the ball when subbed in when the game was over. From HJK´s side returning players Lindström, Kansikas and Savage were the best ones, but all in all HJK did not - and needed not to - play well except for a short moment. Could had been 5-1 at ht, a long time since I have seen a team lose control so badly and so quickly and ahead of Thu Cup game HJK - Jaro there is not much I want to do but stay away. If Jaro are that bad they go down, I do still want to believe it was just a bad day but I doubt I have enough balls to back them again on Thursday after seeing this horror show.

Oh yes, if you want to check match stats go to Veikkausliiga.com, choose round and match and click the blue arrow and then "tapahtumat" far right and you will get this screen:

goals-shots on target-off target-corners-free kicks-off sides-subs-yellow cards (and red if there are ).

KuPS - TPS FT 1-1. KuPS with injury worries could had lost the match on first half but at 0-1 ex-KuPS player Pennanen missed a penalty. TPS better first half, KuPS dominant most of the other one and perhaps a draw is a fair result, there should had been more goals. Interestingly they meet again on Wed in cup in same arena. In my understanding TPS stayed in Kuopio and had a mini camp there? Depending on injury situation tomorrow KuPS might interest at 0, and at least the suspended striker should return.

From VPS - Lahti FT 2-1 I have mostly read biased match reports, but I believe in the version where VPS deserved the win. It was 2-0 until late and the new formation of VPS with 2 strikers suited them well. VPS have tomorrow an easy task in Cup away in Helsinki vs mediocre Kakkonen LPS, though in the preaseason dress rehearsal VPS of all clubs managed to lose vs a Kakkonen side.. something we do not see too often.  Lahti already out of the cup and they can concentrate on 4th round game at  home vs Inter.

Inter - MyPa 2-0. Inter almost killed the game off on first half, but injury of important mf Kauko and some easy win attitude problems let MyPa to be at least almost within the game.  Inter meet Ykkönen side KooTeePee away in the Cup and they are huge favourites, MyPa have a cup game away at Haka. Both - or actually all - clubs are already feeling the heavy schedule in the start of the season, this week most clubs have 3 games with a limited player material.

Haka - MIFK FT 0-2. No highlights and the reports as usual rather general or biased, but I am let to believe that Haka have had at least more possession but not too many proper goal chances. Early goal helped MIFK here a lot. Haka host MyPa in Cup, MIFK have an "easy" away cup game in Helsinki vs Gnistan. I say easy because the class difference in Finland is huge if there are two divisions in-between though Gnistan is a top Kakkonen side. MIFK already met another Kakkonen favourite Klubi04 and drew 1-1 and finally won after extra time so at least they know what to expect. Gnistan are not quite that good and MIFK were also unlucky - and bad - in that game.

Honka - JJK FT 0-2. If Honka´s Petrescu had scored from his early golden chance it could had gone other way, but it did not and JJK´s first goal was crucial. Until then Honka were better, after that JJK with Manninen again being the top guy. JJK defence is seriously bad, but so is also Honka attack as they are very slow to come forward and do not get easily into the danger zone and some of the profile players like Tammilehto and Äijälä are not producing at all. Honka have a tough Cup away at Kakkonen club Atlantis in Helsinki. Tough because Atlantis will rough them up and are in great form with a good team and Honka self-confidence is down. JJK can rest until Monday when they host VPS in a TV game.

Odds open already for round 4 and a lot can happen before these games kick-off because of the midweek Cup round, but must say that the early lines are good. Inter and MIFK most likely clubs to drop a bit.

The big movers at pregame market on Round 3 were MyPa, HonkaHJK and Lahti.Only HJK came out as winners and still it is strongly advised not to start following the money. There have been very strange selections when late money pour in.


A look at cup games tomorrow, enjoy CL tonight!













Round 3 KuPS - TPS FT 1-1 Apr 22nd

Round 2 MIFK - KuPS 1-1 FT Apr 19th

http://www.nyan.ax/aland24/

Round 3 highlights - VPS vs Lahti FT 2-1 Apr 22nd

Round 3 highlights - Inter vs MyPa 2-0 April 22nd 2012

23.4.2012

Round 3 highlights: HJK - Jaro FT 4-1 April 23rd 2012

Veikkausliiga odds for Round 4 - 3rd not even yet finished..

And remember there is a cup round before these as well.


Veikkausliiga round 3; HJK - Jaro preview April 23rd


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HJK - Jaro preview
HJK a bit better than I was hoping, but even with their best possible they are not great at the moment.

HJK today: Wallen; Kansikas-Lahti-Lindström-Sumusalo; Zeneli-Okkonen-Perovuo-Savage; Pelvas-Pohjanpalo. Only Sorsa and Hakanpää completely out of squad today. No egyptian yet, striker Mäkelä out of starting lineup which is actually bad news for any Jaro backers today as he has been very undangerous this season after his unsuccesful spell in Australia.

No defenders on bench except cb Moren, the rest are midfielders + gk and Mäkelä. Sumusalo is not that comfortable at right than as a left back but there are no options. Lahti has been hazardous in defense. The only midfielder who can be satisfied with his season so far is Zeneli on the left, and Pohjanpalo as only succesful striker.

HJK have conceded at least once in every game since February if my memory serves me right, and that unlucky non-scoring team was MyPa in the league cup.

Jaro; Kotenko; Banner-Vaganov-Vasiljev-Sara; Kronholm-Agyeman-Tahvanainen-Skrabb-Niang;Aalto. Unchanged from unsuccesful MyPa 2-0 loss away. Options from the bench for all departments, preferably I would like to see new signing DeFreitas who is rumoured to be very quick.

In betting I have already taken Jaro +1.5. Odds have dropped but in Jaro´s latest game their odds rose hugely and same can happen anytime with HJK, so perhaps it is wisest to check out what the odds are closer to the kick-off.

No opinion on match totals really but I believe in both teams scoring.

No stream, but if you want to brush up your Swedish language Jaro homepage and Twitter account are producing live commentary, along with live stats they might help for possible live bets.

Round review tomorrow as there is nothing else, on Wed and Thu cup round. Fixtures can be found for example at Soccerway.

Lets have a nice week - although it is Monday!












21.4.2012

Veikkausliiga round 3 April 22nd 2012


TPS to take advantage of KuPS injury worries? And Inter Turku!

(no more updates after 15.25 local time)




Quick guide: Hope you have TPS already because best if not all value is gone, they are deservedly favourites even away because of KuPS missing half a dozen players because of injuries, suspensions and contractual problems. I have already Jaro as well for tomorrow, the hc is desperately wrong and too big and perhaps the HJK odds are not dropping this time. The only pregame match total that interests even slightly is Honka-JJK over, but I dislike pregame overs in general. More detailed thoughts below. And do not forget the Cup round on Wed-Thu with most league clubs playing and HJK-Jaro and KuPS-TPS being played also in the Cup! MyPa also missing a few of the most important players and suspect that they are not surprising anymore today. Inter -1 @ 1.86 taken with confidence.



Haka - MIFK
JJK - Haka 1-4 is a shocker, especially after a controlling and dangerous performance and it was described as "Haka should had scored more". MIFK were favoured at the market ahead of KuPS game and were much closer of winning. Even game to be expected, would go for +0.25 easily if I had to choose but as in most matches this preseason the opening odds are good and the bookies are well aware of the power relations - they will only get lost with injuries and big lineup changes sooner or later. Haka been bad most of the preseason and also vs Lahti, and the latest JJK win was mostly down to JJK underperforming big time.

Haka today: big squad to choose from. From regular starters McFaul and Dema on the bench, at Haka the injury situation is perhaps at best of all and they can rotate.

MIFK today: injured Kangaskolkka returns. Two strikers here as well as Jagne starts too.

Haka stadion far from good condition after the long and snowy winter. No pretty football to be expected and this is difficult game for me to have any strong opinions.




Honka - JJK
With the season start performances both are far away from top-3 spots, Honka again too slow in building up attacks and JJK too clumsy to defend properly and they have already conceded 6 goals vs mediocre opponents. At Honka they know that with the kid squad they have top positions are unlikely to this year and the bad results should cause no panic, at JJK success is more important as they are building their team with bigger sums of money.

Honka today: Mostly unchanged, Dudu starts as lone striker instead of Väyrynen. Mf Mäkijärvi added to bench after a long absence. Koskinen and Peltonen obviously unwanted and not even on the bench.

JJK today: Key mf Manninen is back! Centerbacks Pasoja-Nieminen instead of Reintam-Nieminen, I would prefer Pasoja-Reintam... Missing another key mf Jani Virtanen also from the bench. Df/mf Markkula missing.  Good news and bad news, did not make predicting the winner here any easier but surely Honka are not +50 % winners. 3-3 CS? Both been disappointing really and are more or less the same quality.



Inter - MyPa
Top vs bottom in my ranking, but surely MyPa self-confidence is sky-high and as mentioned they will win games when everything goes well and their aggressive team defence and pressure works. When they need to go chasing for a goal things will change. Inter were convincing vs VPS, MyPa have been effective and hard-working and in the ideal world it brings points and some luck along. Materialwise no change, top players vs lower division work-horses. The formation and lineups of MyPa vs Jaro were rather original and lively with some added defenders, everything is allowed in football and love?

The arena is the same Paavo Nurmi - stadion where MyPa destroyed TPS´s hopes of a good league start, it is smaller than their normal pitch and it is not the regular home stadion for TPS or Inter. Goals can be scored here also, TPS won HJK there 3-1. If MyPa had started as expected I would had accepted -1.5, now this is not as automatic with a few minor injuries reported also from the Inter camp. I am pretty sure I am not going to turn my head and start suggesting MyPa anytime soon. A safe-sounding option would be -1, just as it was in the TPS-MyPa...

Inter today:  Centerback Diallo missing also today but it caused no problems vs VPS. Same to be expected also today. Starting lineup very good, the quality drops  badly after substitutions.

MyPa today: Missing cb Aho, mf Oksanen and mf Saxman, a new puzzle to be built. Lack quality and also a bit of quantity today, not many options on the bench.

KuPS - TPS (artificial pitch)
Popular bet of the day, and for a reason. No confirmation yet of KuPS situation but in the worst case scenario they miss a lot of players today, also seriously important regular starters. Edit: big missings confirmed!

KuPS today: At least striker Zahovaiko suspended. Lot of doubtfuls for various reasons. Venäläinen totally missing, Ilo starting from the bench. Puri still without license and we have a few kids and one old-timer in starting lineup. Voutilainen, Koljonen, Taipale. Bad starting 11, bad bench.

TPS today: No injuries or suspensions reported, important df Hurme who missed two first games will return. If TPS can reproduce the HJK-game they will win, but the horrible MyPa-game is only one week away...

Dont like suggesting dropping odds but put this on watch list if you do yet have TPS. KuPS is not an option with this starting 11.

VPS - Lahti
This will be another VPS-year with otherwise useful team as such, but they have no one to rely on to score the goals needed. Lahti are not that hot shots either and admittedly an under 2.25 can be considered if you are into that kind of thing. Or maybe not now after seeing the lineups!

VPS today: Important mf Fowler injured and missing and allround player Saranpää on the bench, new CB needed and looks like is mf Denis Abdulahi. VPS do not usually start with two strikers but today the have both Parikka and Morrissey starting, Parikka probably as withdrawn striker. A bit strange lineup and something new to try. VPS vs Inter were undangerous.

Lahti today: Still expectedly without mf Mäkitalo but otherwise a strong squad by Lahti standards. Same applies here than with Honka, max 50 % for VPS win.

Lahti +0.5 slightly interesting.



HJK - Jaro (artificial)
More detailed preview tomorrow. HJK general quality widely discussed several times, and there are now also injury worries and likely a new mf/striker from Egypt. Jaro value in every case.

********
 At Kakkonen there have been played a few matches and the season-long prediction regarding Klubi-04 is still valid. Two games so far, as -1.5 favs vs SalPa odds dropped quickly to 1.6 but then rose back because SalPa are no mugs (FT 0-0) and vs LoPa last night the -2 lasted only a few minutes and went down to 1.4. Ft 6-0. Pallohonka also played twice already, the did ok vs EIF and drew 1-1, yesterday vs BK-46 they were both awful and unlucky with the harsh refereiing decision of a penalty on first minute against them.

The only Kakkonen game today LPS-KTP is tricky, KTP have signed a quality keeper Jere Koponen from Inter  and ex-Veikkausliiga striker Niko Ikävalko and on this level already 2-3 better players from higher leagues often make a significant  difference and I would not consider these kind of season starters without being at the venue.

*****

Forementioned EIF will host JIPPO (local 1.85) today in the Cup, but as their performance was a jekyll and hide - type with two extremely different halves all that I can say is that JIPPO deserve to be favourites as they are a better club from a higher league. An upset not at all impossible, and of course this is very underish game as always with JIPPO both home and away.

20.4.2012

Paid season about to begin

The first Veikkausliiga rounds are behind, Kakkonen about to start properly now and Ykkönen next Friday means that there will be a lot less updates in the Free Editions and at the website.

If you are interested in up-to-date information for betting purposes check the Products 2012 page on top of the home side.

Extremely reasonable options available and as the customer base has grown over the years they are actually even cheaper than ever before - especially if you act quickly!



admin@ftfinland.com

Highlights Round 2: TPS - HJK FT 3-1




Match report MIFK - KuPS FT 1-1 in Swedish.

Highlights Round 2 : JJK - Haka FT 1-4

http://www.ksml.fi/uutiset/video-kuva/videot/gruborovicsin-laiha-lohtu-haka-murjoi-jjkn-maanrakoon/1187744

Round 2: Lahti - Honka highlights FT 2-1

Veikkausliiga round 3 / 2012 odds


Veikkausliiga highligts round 2/2012 : VPS - Inter 0-2 FT

18.4.2012

More than expected market moves at small limit markets for Kakkonen opening day. The reserve clubs & overs attract blindly, round by round. The good thing is that it is not always automatically the correct way.


Round 2 - one game tonight. Lahti vs Honka




To keep it short, unless the odds move a lot there is no value to be found. Team News are already built-in the odds.

188 odds and moves

Team News: Lahti are without injured Grössohmichen (long-term, CB), Rafael and Kemppinen (strikers) and mf Mäkitalo who was the best player of Lahti vs Haka. Mf Ville Taulo is still doubtful because of missing license from Italy. If available he would help to replace Mäkitalo, if not then there is a one man hole in the midfield which might be covered with young and useful but rather light-weight Klinga and Honka for once could be physically stronger in the midfield. The only change in starting line-up from Haka game probably Mäkitalo missing.

Honka as usual do not talk too openly about what is their situation, but in the video preview it was mentioned that it is possible that another 2 new kids will get their debut; gk Kollar and df/mf Aaltonen.  Both do fill their place satisfactorily and Kollar is no worse keeper than Viitala, but if they really are going to give Aaltonen playing time when there are other defenders like experienced Koskinen available it says a lot about the future of both Koskinen and expectedly best choice keeper Peltonen. They are history in the eyes of Honka management. A couple of changes to be expected in starting line-up, no key position changes likely.

It does not really change the game a lot if one of these players is missing or not, it is a round game on not-so-perfect pitch with Honka as a better club as favourites. Three games played this winter, 2-0 Honka win in a Dec friendly, 4-1 home win for Honka indoors in the league cup and 2-2 draw outdoors in Lahti. The general opinion here is an under and though I am not probably going to place a total bet here my hunch says differently and 2.25 line is low. There will be mistakes and good invidual effort and Honka should be hungry enough to win the game to take the necessary risks to create goal chances and Lahti mf is the key.

Even big market moves possible, but as you noticed from last round the direction of the move is hard to predict. The moves last round were not logical really, apart from the one going KuPS´way.

If you really want to have something with above odds then it would be Honka - 0.25 for me.

Rest of the games of this round tomorrow, 3rd round on Sunday - Monday, a cup round on Wed-Thu with most of the Veikkausliiga clubs playing, 4th round the same weekend. You see my point about the importance of big squads which almost no club has? After 6 months of no football there are now 5 matches in first 2 weeks and injuries and tiredness is inevitable. Early odds about as expected, I think TPS odds will rise by kick-off significantly if you are planning on hitting in that match.

Ykkönen - the second highest league - to kick-off April 27th.

****************

Weekend´s Newsletter delivery faced technical problems. The service provider did reply and hopefully it does not happen again too soon or otherwise I need to start sending these directly from email - and it a lot less convenient. Let us keep an eye on it and let me know if there are problems.

******************

Kakkonen local odds for today opened at Veikkaus. 
Klubi04 - SalPa 1.40-4.50-5.00.
EIF - Pallohonka (often Honka 2 at bookies) 2.05 - 4.00 - 2.50. 

Will be more interested in these today and perhaps there is a ht live bet available today. From one or more of the games, but otherwise back with you tomorrow.

******************

Oh yes, the paid season. I try to come up with something by Friday this week. A service like this you have seen will go on for a very reasonable monthly fee with whole-season discounts, but I have not found out yet a satisfactory solution for those of you with bigger needs as I do not want to promise more than I can deliver.

Back with you tomorrow afternoon after lineups are out, today they are not that needed as changes apart from the ones mentioned very unlikely. GL!





17.4.2012

Veikkausliiga odds round 2 / 2012

Only moderate market moves. Totals have gone towards "under" because of early season, bad pitches and this time around all matches are on natural grass.


Long wait is over - Kakkonen 2012 will kick-off on Wednesday!

Updated tables and fixtures can be found at soccerway but in short the biggest changes since 2011. Changes are inevitable here, the system, the clubs, everything is subject to change.

2011 it was 3 groups of 14, 2012 will be 4 groups of 10. Geographically divided if possible. In the North the distances are still long to cover.

2011 one club - SJK - won promotion. 2012 there will be 2, the 4 group winners will be play-offs. Unless the system changes of course.

2012 probably bottom 2 in each group will be relegated, 2011 it was different and  but can not explain it in more detail.

2012 there are several clubs who did not win the promotion but got there accidentally by cabinet decisions; Jämsänkosken Ilves, Härmä from Hämeenlinna and PK-35/VJS might not belong there. Or maybe they do?

2012 these clubs work as academies or reserves to higher level clubs:

Klubi04 -->     HJK
Pallohonka - > Honka
Åbo IFK     ->TPS

PK-35/VJS --> PK-35. Guess you got it yourself.

Kraft co-operate with VPS.

May the most profitable league in the world begin!

Opening games Klubi04 vs SalPa & EIF vs Pallohonka April 18th.


Finnish Cup 7th round and quarter-finals

In my understanding most games are on 25th of April, not 27th, but between Veikkausliiga rounds 3 and 4 anyway.


Newsletter delivery delays

Got this from the service provider, but if the problems do not get solved let us forget the Newsletter and I will go back to old-fashioned email. Please keep me updated if there are problems!

"Ah sorry to hear about issues with delay of delivery!  It's worth noting that sometimes mail servers may delay the delivery of bulk email to inboxes for up to 24 hours.  So if you're seeing these delays isolated to particular email domains, this could be the cause of the issue.

Ultimately this is a mechanism in place on the receiving servers, so it's not something we're easily able to control on our end.  However, we do have many different IP sending addresses that we cycle through to try and avoid the bulk emailing issues described above.  These particular delays you're experiencing may very well be temporary in that at the time of send there was a high volume of requests being received by that receiving email server, so we'd recommend keeping an eye on it in the case that it should clear up on its own.

If you have any further questions or are concerned about any repeated delays you're experiencing, feel free to write us back with the name of a few affected campaigns, as well as any subscribers and e-mail domains in particular you're seeing the delayed delivery on"

14.4.2012

Media rankings for Veikkausliiga 2012



Kymppipaikka Veikkaaja Urheilulehti
1 HJK HJK HJK
2 TPS Inter Inter
3 JJK TPS Honka
4 Honka Honka JJK
5 Inter JJK TPS
6 KuPS KuPS KuPS
7 VPS VPS VPS
8 MIFK Jaro Jaro
9 Haka MIFK Haka
10 Jaro Haka MIFK
11 MyPa Lahti Lahti
12 Lahti MyPa MyPa

13.4.2012

Cup draw 7th round


HJK Jaro
KooTeePee Inter
Atlantis/Jazz Honka
LPS VPS
KuPS TPS
Gnistan MIFK
EIF JIPPO
Haka MyPa

9.4.2012

Veikkausliiga key players 2012

Yes, in some cases a matter of opinion. More good players in some teams than others. Nevertheless, here is the listing!



Key Key Key Follow
HJK Lindström Zeneli Pohjanpalo Alho
Inter Sirbiladze Ojala Lehtonen Kauppi
JJK Manninen Gruburovics Virtanen Hilska
TPS Kolehmainen Hurme Tanska Pennanen
Honka Äijälä Tammilehto Heikkilä Väyrynen
KuPS Venäläinen Kärkkäinen Ilo Paananen
VPS Abdulahi Fowler Coundoul Engström
MIFK Lyyski Forsell Niskala Nordström
Jaro Agyeman Niang Vasiljev Skrabb
Haka Robinson M. Matrone Ojanperä Puustinen
Lahti Hauhia Kari Länsitalo Mero
MyPa Oksanen Saxman Kukka Sesay



6.4.2012

Ykkönen 2012 fixtures


27.04.12

Ykkönen HIFK KooTeePee
28.04.12

Ykkönen JIPPO SJK
28.04.12

Ykkönen OPS Viikingit
28.04.12

Ykkönen PK-35 Hämeenlinna
28.04.12

Ykkönen RoPS AC Oulu
05.05.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu JIPPO
05.05.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna RoPS
05.05.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee OPS
05.05.12

Ykkönen SJK HIFK
07.05.12

Ykkönen Viikingit PK-35
10.05.12

Ykkönen HIFK AC Oulu
12.05.12

Ykkönen Viikingit SJK
12.05.12

Ykkönen OPS JIPPO
12.05.12

Ykkönen PK-35 RoPS
13.05.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee Hämeenlinna
16.05.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu OPS
16.05.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna HIFK
16.05.12

Ykkönen JIPPO Viikingit
17.05.12

Ykkönen RoPS KooTeePee
17.05.12

Ykkönen SJK PK-35
20.05.12

Ykkönen JIPPO HIFK
21.05.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna SJK
21.05.12

Ykkönen Viikingit KooTeePee
21.05.12

Ykkönen OPS RoPS
21.05.12

Ykkönen PK-35 AC Oulu
24.05.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee SJK
26.05.12

Ykkönen OPS Hämeenlinna
26.05.12

Ykkönen RoPS HIFK
27.05.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu Viikingit
27.05.12

Ykkönen PK-35 JIPPO
30.05.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu KooTeePee
30.05.12

Ykkönen Viikingit Hämeenlinna
30.05.12

Ykkönen HIFK PK-35
30.05.12

Ykkönen SJK OPS
03.06.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna AC Oulu
03.06.12

Ykkönen Viikingit HIFK
03.06.12

Ykkönen OPS PK-35
03.06.12

Ykkönen SJK RoPS
04.06.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee JIPPO
09.06.12

Ykkönen RoPS JIPPO
16.06.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu SJK
16.06.12

Ykkönen JIPPO Hämeenlinna
16.06.12

Ykkönen PK-35 KooTeePee
17.06.12

Ykkönen HIFK OPS
17.06.12

Ykkönen RoPS Viikingit
20.06.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu RoPS
20.06.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna PK-36
20.06.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee HIFK
20.06.12

Ykkönen Viikingit OPS
20.06.12

Ykkönen SJK JIPPO
25.06.12

Ykkönen JIPPO AC Oulu
25.06.12

Ykkönen OPS KooTeePee
25.06.12

Ykkönen PK-35 Viikingit
25.06.12

Ykkönen RoPS Hämeenlinna
26.06.12

Ykkönen HIFK SJK
30.06.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu HIFK
30.06.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna KooTeePee
30.06.12

Ykkönen JIPPO OPS
30.06.12

Ykkönen RoPS PK-35
30.06.12

Ykkönen SJK Viikingit
04.07.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee RoPS
04.07.12

Ykkönen Viikingit JIPPO
04.07.12

Ykkönen HIFK Hämeenlinna
04.07.12

Ykkönen OPS AC Oulu
04.07.12

Ykkönen PK-35 SJK
07.07.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu PK-36
07.07.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee Viikingit
07.07.12

Ykkönen JIPPO HIFK
07.07.12

Ykkönen RoPS OPS
07.07.12

Ykkönen SJK Hämeenlinna
13.07.12

Ykkönen JIPPO PK-35
14.07.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna OPS
14.07.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu Viikingit
14.07.12

Ykkönen HIFK RoPS
14.07.12

Ykkönen SJK KooTeePee
19.07.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee AC Oulu
20.07.12

Ykkönen OPS SJK
21.07.12

Ykkönen Viikingit Hämeenlinna
21.07.12

Ykkönen RoPS JIPPO
22.07.12

Ykkönen PK-35 HIFK
28.07.12

Ykkönen HIFK Viikingit
28.07.12

Ykkönen PK-35 OPS
28.07.12

Ykkönen RoPS SJK
30.07.12

Ykkönen JIPPO KooTeePee
31.07.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu Hämeenlinna
02.08.12

Ykkönen OPS HIFK
04.08.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna JIPPO
04.08.12

Ykkönen Viikingit RoPS
04.08.12

Ykkönen SJK AC Oulu
06.08.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee PK-36
09.08.12

Ykkönen HIFK KooTeePee
09.08.12

Ykkönen PK-35 Hämeenlinna
11.08.12

Ykkönen JIPPO SJK
11.08.12

Ykkönen OPS Viikingit
11.08.12

Ykkönen RoPS AC Oulu
18.08.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna RoPS
18.08.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee OPS
18.08.12

Ykkönen Viikingit PK-36
18.08.12

Ykkönen SJK HIFK
19.08.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu JIPPO
23.08.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee Hämeenlinna
23.08.12

Ykkönen HIFK AC Oulu
25.08.12

Ykkönen Viikingit SJK
25.08.12

Ykkönen OPS JIPPO
25.08.12

Ykkönen PK-35 RoPS
29.08.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu OPS
29.08.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna HIFK
29.08.12

Ykkönen JIPPO Viikingit
29.08.12

Ykkönen RoPS KooTeePee
29.08.12

Ykkönen SJK PK-35
01.09.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna SJK
01.09.12

Ykkönen Viikingit KooTeePee
01.09.12

Ykkönen HIFK JIPPO
01.09.12

Ykkönen OPS RoPS
02.09.12

Ykkönen PK-35 AC Oulu
13.09.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee SJK
15.09.12

Ykkönen Viikingit AC Oulu
15.09.12

Ykkönen OPS Hämeenlinna
15.09.12

Ykkönen PK-35 JIPPO
15.09.12

Ykkönen RoPS HIFK
22.09.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu KooTeePee
22.09.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna Viikingit
22.09.12

Ykkönen HIFK PK-35
22.09.12

Ykkönen JIPPO RoPS
22.09.12

Ykkönen SJK OPS
30.09.12

Ykkönen KooTeePee JIPPO
30.09.12

Ykkönen Hämeenlinna AC Oulu
30.09.12

Ykkönen Viikingit HIFK
30.09.12

Ykkönen OPS PK-35
30.09.12

Ykkönen SJK RoPS
06.10.12

Ykkönen AC Oulu SJK
06.10.12

Ykkönen HIFK OPS
06.10.12

Ykkönen JIPPO Hämeenlinna
06.10.12

Ykkönen PK-35 KooTeePee
06.10.12

Ykkönen RoPS Viikingit