14.2.2011

League Cup previews - for the past weekend!

 Why not keep track of what I had in mind before the round.





Home Away hc home home away Over 2.5 Over 2.75
Honka MyPa -1 1,88 1,95 1,81
Haka Inter 0,75 1,88 2,02 1,92
Jaro KuPS -0,25 1,93 1,97
1,78


Yesterday´s only match VPS-TamU 2-2 (0-2).
Interesting matches today, opening odds in the chart above, but as there are new members in the mailing list now I have to remind you that the Finnish leagues are not the ones where you should follow blindly the money – if any league ever is. So use the opening odds and market moves only as a reference. There is occasionally wise money, but often the odds also move in mysterious ways, against the info and against the actual final result.
Like I pre-warned you this is not a day for pre-match Honka bets and the odds look really short. In fact, given the latest performances MyPa would be worth a bet, but Honka home advantage indoors is so huge that I can not advise it. This match is also a part of today´s live schedule and I think it is better to be safe than sorry. I will let you know from the venue how it goes, so you can expect a couple of short messages live during the first half, kick-off CET 12.15. Honka home matches usually produce bucketfuls of goals and over 2.75 is likely to drop.

Honka have again two American test players, one of them played last week vs. Haka and the other one is a new guy, and all in all there is a lot of material to choose from and predicting the line-up of Honka in this is a meaningless affair, but it should be a competitive one. MyPa are trouble-free and hungry after last week´s good but pointless visit to HJK. However, their coach promised to give more playing time to those who did not get it vs HJK it would favour Honka a lot.

Edit: FT 5-3 (2-3) Honka were 0-3 down after 20 minutes!  Test players were mediocre and crap and personally I can not understand how difficult it can be earlier to see that they bring no added value to the team.

Haka host Inter and I already took the visitors. Inter are a team who often fail to cover big handicaps in full and a 0-1 FT result would be no surprise, but then again with the current squads a win by two goals is much more likely than Haka securing a draw. We have discussed Haka a lot and very little has changed, they lack quality and quantity player-wise and especially 2nd half is likely to be a painful affair to them. It could be underish as Inter have a tight defence and the freexing temperature does not help, but on the other hand Haka defence is very weak and this is like a coin-toss in the end.

Haka welcome back df Mattila and gk Pesonen, Inter get back again their injury-prone top striker Furuholm and Abramovic might start as well. This would be a good match to take live, but it requires too much travel and freezing as it will be played outdoors so I choose Honka match instead. Kick-off 12.30 CET.

Edit: FT 0-1 (0-1). No Furuholm or Abramovic in the starting line-up and ft result as expected.

Jaro welcome KuPS to their indoor arena today. Again, big home advantage and the visitors in good form – except that they have a few injuries and reportedly are going through a tough training period. Jaro are not without injury worries either, but at this time of the day there are no confirmed team news and the doubtful players in all teams are exactly that, they might play or not and that will not be confirmed before seeing the official line-ups. In their opening match Jaro drew 2-2 with VPS and seemed to tire badly on the second half and lost their two goals lead, KuPS were the comfortable winners of the Lahti Cup and striker Ilja Venäläinen was in huge form scoring 6 goals in 3 games. A man to watch, and he also earned his first NT match away in Ghent this week.

Jaro have several doubtful players but welcome important Vasiljev back, KuPS are without Hoivala and Oravainen from the regular starters and Balogh is doubtful. I do like to look of KuPS also this season but they could be stiff from heavy training. Both Jaro home matches this season have produced 4 goals each.

FT 1-2 (0-1) Venäläinen scored twice from the penalty spot, there were a lot of missings on both sides.

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