Finnish Cup Final KuPS - HJK

Edit: Stream should be found here - LINK (Women´s final as well)

The game is played at the Sonera stadium, which is HJK's home stadium and makes them the actual home team. The 1x2 odds are set more or less like this was a normal season match and taking pure stats as measure they may look reasonable at first look. Since the Cup final is always an own story and a lot has changed during the last few weeks and I see pretty obvious value on the KuPS side.

Lets take a fast look at the season of KuPS to get the picture:

The early rounds of the Cup were played during the earliest stage of season and the final teams have been known already since end of May. For KuPS this meant early on that they will most probably play in the Europa League next season, as the opponent HJK was more or less the only serious  title contender from the start. The Veikkausliiga season didn´t start well for KuPS and rather soon the only real goal for them was to stay out of the relegation battle and concentrate on this Cup final.

KuPS  also had a lot of bad luck in terms of injuries, which by now are all more or less overcome and all players are available again. Two new signings were made as well, a forward (Lemessa) and a central midfielder (Bono) who both seem to be useful players on Veikkausliiga level. KuPS have rotated their squad heavily to get and keep all players healthy and back for this important game, they have now basically their full squad to choose from and look really ready to give HJK a good fight to say the least. The last few rounds show clear improvement, even with a rotated team they have played way better than in the early season. (eg: lost away vs HJK just 0-1)

HJK on the other side have played a great season and good European campaign as well, getting hit by the power of Schalkes Veltins Arena to stop them on the last meters to the Europa League group stage.The good performances in the European competion were not unseen by scouts and HJK were able to sell 3 players for good money (Rafinha, Dawda Bah and Pukki). Those 3 players had a big part of HJK dominance this season and their departure has without a doubt weakened HJK significantly - they all had a big role in the squad.

To sum it up:

KuPS are now a way better team than the Veikkausliiga standing lets us assume, they have players back from injury and strengthened the squad with two new signings. Focus has been on this one game for a long time. 

HJK have weakened with the transfer of 3 key players.  (4 if we remember df Juhani Ojala who left for Young Boys earlier. ) They have still the best team in the league but the gap has become a lot smaller for sure. KuPS with current squad is a team for the top-4 places in Veikkausliiga, far away from the low position they hold now. (why they don´t care is explained above).

KuPS can win something really big for them, while for HJK it is simply "something more" they can win.

Market avg of 67% for HJK would had been correct 5-6 weeks ago with all KuPS problems and HJK with all sold key players who are now gone. The Cup is always something special and home advantage is lower as usual.

With all this in clear mind and taking the current situation of the teams, my 90min 1X2 estimation looks like this: 20% KuPS -  27% Draw - 53% HJK

Value all way long on KuPS! Good Luck to all going for it!

Courtesy of 

P.A. 


Naturally, with love from Finland