JJK - Fc Lahti preview

1x2 % 18.0% - 28.0% - 54.0% (5.56 - 3.57 - 1.85)

First home win still awaits

In the whole glorious history of Finnish football these two teams have met only once, and this historical event in a a league cup game in march in Lahti ended with a 1-0 win for home team. Is it time for revenge now?

JJK form is embarrassingly bad, the newly promoted team has yet to win a game, but fortunately from their point of view Lahti has not been that much better result-wise in their last outings winning only once in their last six games against FF Jaro. In case of Jyväskylä the question could also be formed "is JJK really that bad?" We know Lahti is not.

In the Cup JJK won an out-of-league opponent 0-8, but one should read absolutely nothing into that because the opposition was extremely poor. Scoring goals have been a problem, but not the only one as also the defense has been a bit shaky and the team from the Mid-Finland also lacks skill creating chances.

There is a huge home support to be expected as the away team has the biggest Finnish footballer ever in their line-up as Jari Litmanen (Ajax, Liverpool, Barcelona) decided to return to his beloved home town after some 15 years of international top class football.

Fc Lahti hosted IFK Mariehamn last Sunday, and undeservedly had to settle to a draw, Lahti had lots of goal chances and the talismanic striker Rafael hit the cross-bar twice, scoring only once.

Jari Litmanen is fit and will probably play the second half of the game.

JJK form from the right:1-1-0-0-0-0

Lahti form from the right :1-3-0-0-0-1

Head-to-head 0-0-1, the only meeting ever being in the League Cup March 2009 when Lahti won 1-0 at home.

JJK: 30 Mihaly Szerovay 7/0 - 3 Janne Hannula 4/0 - 5 Ik Kuyng Nam 8/2 – 7 Anssi Viren 8/0 - 8 Matti Lähitie 8/1 – 9 Mika Lahtinen 8/1 – 10 Tommi Kari 8/2 – 14 Jukka Sinisalo 7/0 - 18 Zakaria Abahassine 7/0 – 19 Christian Sund 8/0 – 21 Toni Koskela 8/0

bench : 31 Antti-Jussi Karnio (gk), 4 Markus Paija 2/0, 12 Sami Myllymäki 0/0, 13 Tuomas Latikka 7/0, 16 Niko Markkula4/0, 17 Hyun-Kwan Kim 4/0

Coach: Ville Priha

FC Lahti: 1 Viktor Szentpeteri 7/0 – 2 Heikki Haara 9/0 – 3 Henri Toivomäki 9/0 - 4 Janne Moilanen 2/0 – 6 Kalle Eerola 6/0 - 8 Mohamed Fofana 9/2 - 9 Rafael 8/2 – 11 Drilon Shala 9/5 – 14 Konsta Hietanen 9/0 – 15 Jukka Vanninen 9/0 - 17 Eero Korte 9/1

bench: 10 Jari Litmanen 6/0, 12 Toni Huuhka 7/1, 19 Riku Heini 5/0, 20 Jonne Kemppinen 7/1, 21 Kaarlo Rantanen 2/0, 22 Juha Tuomi (gk)

out: : 7 Jukka Veltheim 2/0 for the rest of the season
Coach : Ilkka Mäkelä

Pick and betting analysis to follow.

Limits for asian betting:

JJK -1.5 : Lahti +1.5 5.6% - 94.4% (17.76 - 1.06)
JJK -1.0 & -1.5 : Lahti +1.0 & +1.5 6.0% - 94.0% (16.59 - 1.06)
JJK -1.0 : Lahti +1.0 6.4% - 93.6% (15.56 - 1.07)
JJK -0.5 & -1.0 : Lahti +0.5 & +1.0 12.2% - 87.8% (8.19 - 1.14)
JJK -0.5 : Lahti +0.5 18.0% - 82.0% (5.56 - 1.22)
JJK 0 & -0.5 : Lahti 0 & +0.5 21.5% - 78.5% (4.65 - 1.27)
JJK 0 : Lahti 0 25.0% - 75.0% (4.00 - 1.33)
JJK 0 & +0.5 : Lahti 0 & -0.5 35.5% - 64.5% (2.82 - 1.55)
JJK +0.5 : Lahti -0.5 46.0% - 54.0% (2.17 - 1.85)
JJK +0.5 & +1.0 : Lahti -0.5 & -1.0 53.4% - 46.6% (1.87 - 2.15)
JJK +1.0 : Lahti -1.0 60.8% - 39.2% (1.64 - 2.55)
JJK +1.0 & +1.5 : Lahti -1.0 & -1.5 65.6% - 34.4% (1.53 - 2.90)
JJK +1.5 : Lahti -1.5 70.3% - 29.7% (1.42 - 3.37)

Over / Under 2.5 goals: 44.0% (2.27) 56.0% (1.79)


That is numbers, and only numbers.

My gut-feeling is that JJK is even less likely to win. True, there will be best home support so far, and Lahti is a vulnerable team. They all are.

The skill difference in creating goal chances is very big though, and with Shala & Rafael possessing scoring instinct it all favours Lahti so much that at the end of the day this should be quite an easy away win, despite the animal-like efforts of the home team. Lahti will score at least two goals, and that is enough for struggling JJK.