Midweek Pick for Ykkönen - goals galore at Vuosaari!

A goalfest is not really needed, I would happily settle for 3 goals in this derby between FC Viikingit – PK-35 tonight in the ‘rough’ Eastern suburbs of Helsinki.

Like all of my picks, this one is based on a combination of performances on the pitch and statistics. I have seen both teams play, improve, develop and get thrashed over the years, also this season.

Ykkönen is fundamentally a league where scoring has always been a problem and under 2.5 – goals at any given match is the more likely outcome. The reasons are varied, but to cut a long story short it is down to the fact that attacking is more difficult than defending and all the promising goal-scorers have moved elsewhere as Ykkönen is not the most visible or financially rewarding of the leagues, yet it is demanding and requires commitment from the players, in stark contrast to Kakkonen or the lower divisions.

Viikingit have done well results wise lately, and are one of the promotion favourites in Ykkönen this season. They are one of the teams with some capability and desire to go forward, and as the only 100 % local challenger to the mighty HJK they are also widely expected to return to Veikkausliiga. This season they are unbeaten at home – a fact that also might suggest taking a home win here – and they have scored at least twice in their last five home games, the exception being the nowadays quite resilient Atlantis team that PK-35 know very well by now after their last two contests.

Neither of the teams’ goal statistics over all this season points out that there would be any more goals than usual, which forces me to look further and find the head-to-head stats which I usually would not bother even considering relevant.

24.06.09 Ykkönen PK-35 Vantaa vs. FC Viikingit 1:2
06.09.08 Ykkönen PK-35 Vantaa vs. FC Viikingit 1:2
15.06.08 Ykkönen FC Viikingit vs. PK-35 Vantaa 5:2
27.07.06 Ykkönen FC Viikingit vs. PK-35 Vantaa 2:1
01.06.06 Ykkönen PK-35 Vantaa vs. FC Viikingit 0:5
01.09.05 Ykkönen PK-35 Vantaa vs. FC Viikingit 2:0
09.06.05 Ykkönen FC Viikingit vs. PK-35 Vantaa 0:1

Keeping in mind that this is a fiery derby, the fact that Viikingit have found the net with ease and PK-35’s defence looked poor and injury-riddled when they were hit by a goal machine called Atlantis (1-5), I cannot but wonder the line of 2.25 for total goals.

Recommendation:

Viikingit – PK35 over 2.25 goals at 1.83

For you dear readers out there who are not familiar with Asian Handicap Betting, an explanation of the bet; over 2.25 is a combination of two bets, over 2 and over 2.5.

If there are 2 goals in the game, I will lose one half and get the stake back from the other half. To win this I need 3 goals or more, it does not matter which teams scores as it is a match total.