Åbo IFK - Ilves at Kakkonen on Friday

Extremely interesting match at Kakkonen!

Head-to-head stats show two things,

a) this has always been a tight encounter and
b) Ilves have won all the six games.

24.04.09 Kakkonen Lohko B Ilves vs. ÅIFK 2:1
19.09.08 Kakkonen Lohko B ÅIFK vs. Ilves 1:2
04.07.08 Kakkonen Lohko B Ilves vs. ÅIFK 1:0
24.04.09 Kakkonen Lohko B Ilves vs. ÅIFK 2:1
19.09.08 Kakkonen Lohko B ÅIFK vs. Ilves 1:2
04.07.08 Kakkonen Lohko B Ilves vs. ÅIFK 1:0

I do not put too much emphasis on h2h-stats in general, and at this level a lot depends on who are playing as most teams work as reserve teams for as well, Åbo for TPS and Ilves for TamU. The transfer window has closed though, and lately Åbo line-up has been steadily the same, full of TPS academy players.

Åbo IFK have real motivation to win as they are the last one surviving the drop at the moment, Ilves have lost their chances of promotion.

Ilves is a underish team and Åbo the opposite, both have done OK in their latest 10,

Ilves 10 7 0 3 15:8 7 21
ÅIFK 10 3 3 4 19:14 5 12

There is home advantage for the underdog, which usually counts for something especially in the mid-week as the players are not professional.

A tight match to be expected as the odds also suggest, at the moment

Åbo + 0,25 @ 1.84
Ilves - 0,25 @ 2,04

The pick?

Impossible to decide until seeing the actual line-ups. At this level I am a bit hesitant to pay for the draw, so no bet yet. There is also live info available through my agent at the stadium.

EDIT: Took over 2 goals @ 2.02 live, but at ht score is still 0-0. My agent suggested Åbo despite rising odds, so I believe him. Åbo @ 2.45

EDIT2: FT 1-0. Ilves had their chances but it is the goals that count.