Finland League Cup home advantage

I see that also Veikkausliiga.com decided to publish this topic as breaking news, so why not discuss it shortly.

So far 19 matches played - 15 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. It would be a shocking result if

a) the sample was a lot bigger
b) the fixtures had been different. Now we have had home favourite in almost every single match.

There are a couple of factors that however should be noted. Those 2 away wins were both taken at outdoor matches (5 played so far), which means that out of 14 matches played indoors all have been winless for the away teams.

If we look at this closer there are also these things to be considered.  

Out of 14 indoor matches 8 have been hosted by Honka, HJK or IFK Mariehamn. Teams that very rarely lose either home or away, and they have played only a few away matches so far, while HJK won IFK and Honka drew with IFK and HJK.

The remaining 6 matches feature Jaro, AC Oulu and VPS all twice at home. 6-0-0 stats, which is very impressive indeed. And with a closer look of the away teams we have got Haka and KuPS twice, Jaro and TamU once each. No world-beaters away, are they? TamU losing 1-0 at VPS was a bit of a surprise to me, but even then TamU were only a 45 % favourite to win and 1X was the more likely outcome.

The pitch conditions, lightning and travel do favour the home teams slightly, but on a negative side there is no home support in the indoor arenas as they are built for training purposes only and the capacity for public is very low. However, I am ready to agree that the home advantage is bigger than during the normal season played outdoors, but how much bigger will remain a mystery. I am absolutely certain though because this sample is so small it is mostly explained by variance. Let us see what happens next weekend in the League Cup!