TP-47 - Kiisto 53 22 25
o/u 2.5: 59 41
TP-47 should be able to field their best squad, Kiisto played against GBK without their first-choice gk Kauppi, defender Timonen and striker Saranpää who both are quite important players, though their team did still possess plenty of quality so those three shouldn't be an excuse for the loss. Kiisto's coach Kevari will leave the team after the season, but he'll continue with them for the remaining games. TP-47 got another slightly undeserved 1 goal win against FCV, which seems to be quite typical for both of the top teams(Santa Claus, TP-47). I don't know if it's the mental strength of those two teams or just variance, but based on the reports and the couple of opportunities to see them live I'd say they'll be in lot of trouble in the promotion playoffs as both are a lot weaker than what this group has usually produced as its top team. Kiisto has played quite average after the Santa Claus win, and it seems that they lack that last 10% from 110% performance, or they are just in bad form. Qualitywise there shouldn't be any difference between these two, but TP-47 has still lot to play for and Kiisto's form isn't the best around and they're also a really bad away team so I've had to tilt my estimation heavily towards TP-47. I'd probably consider playing Kiisto with an +1 handicap, but overall this is not a interesting game to bet on. edit: team news look quite bad for Kiisto, as they miss Laiho, Ahonpää and Saranpää from their regular starters, important midfielder Ekström was substituted on the first half in GBK so he's probably questionable too. double-edit: with the current odds I'm happily skipping this match
FC Vaajakoski - FC OPA 54 21 25
o/u 2.5: 65 35
FCV continued their autumn slide against TP-47, their performance was however a lot better than in their previous games but the goalscoring struggles continue for them, even their usually reliable topscorer Karlstedt managed to miss three 1 on 1 situations against the TP-47 gk. OPA were quite lucky when they drew against PK-37, but they did show some fighting spirit that has been lacking from the past few rounds. Given that they're only 6 points above OPA in the standings, this match is important for FCV too. Overall this is a very tricky match to predict and I think both the side and total could easily go either way. Bookies have estimated the chances for Vaajakoski win a slightly lower than me, if there's something near 2.00 available I'd probably play it as I think FCV is couple of steps better than OPA, but FCV's poor form is certainly troubling. Team news: FCV misses their long-term injured players, so no drastic changes on that front
FC Vaajakoski - FC OPA 1 54% 1,95 2/10 Sbobet
FC Vaajakoski - FC OPA O3.0 55% 1,86 0,5/10 Sbobet
SJK - FC Jyväskylä 67 17 16
o/u 2.5: 67 33
SJK's coach Kärkkäinen was fired(but he'll continue to coach for the last 3 games) this week which was somewhat expected considering the disappointing season and the big ambitions that the club has. They'll miss their captain Ylinen and the first-choice goalkeeper Tuomela, and important defender Lehtinen is questionable, other players that are
out haven't featured enough to make any reasonable difference. FCJ had their chances last week against YPA but in the end they got easily beaten down, things are looking quite grim for them as JBK still has the honor of playing against Korsholm but I'd suppose they've not given up their hopes yet. There's a huge class difference between these teams, but the coaching situation and how it affects SJK makes me a bit cautious. edit: FCJ does have their starting defender Ala-Porkkunen out
SJK - FC Jyväskylä -1 57,5% 1,86 3/10 Sbobet
SJK - FC Jyväskylä O3.0 58% 1,86 3/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - FC Santa Claus 46 21 33
o/u 2.5: 66 34
YPA should be able to field their full squad now that their captain Saarela is probable to play. edit: FC Santa Claus preview suggest that they have numerous starters out but you'll have to wait for the line-ups(http://tulospalvelu.palloliitto.hs.prewise.com/print.asp?id=19569&ser=44) as there's they failed to mention any names. YPA has been very motivated the past two rounds and no doubt the unlucky loss in the opening weeks against Santa is still on their minds, or at least their preview states so. Santa Claus is obviously also quite motivated, and like YPA they've managed to snatch couple of wins against the bottom dwellers in the past two weeks. I'll have to strongly disagree with the bookies estimations on this match as they've currently set Santa Claus as favorites. I don't think there's any real class difference between these two and Santa has in the past month or so played just like any other top-half team so with the home advantage(and travel disadvantage for Santa) on YPA's side they should be at least a slight favorite. However, this doesn't mean that YPA is that tasty of a bet or huge-stake choice, but I think there's definitely some value on the home side as I think the motivation aspect has been played up too much(edit: and the team news seem to be heavily in favor of YPA).
FC YPA - FC Santa Claus +0.0 1 58% 1,78 3/10 Sbobet, did some
unforgivable stake raising, really would be worth of only 1,5/10 or so
FC YPA - FC Santa Claus O2.75 62% 1,76 5/10 Sbobet
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