MyPa-HJK preview 11.5.2009 & short report

Editing a short match report:

I drove 300 km to watch the game live, someone with less motivation might have settled to watch it on tv.

MyPa was good last night, active with domination of the midfield making the HJK defence to look like the fools they are in reality. Only the lack of any goal-scoring power helped HJK to be in the game.

Of course HJK might argue that they would have deserved a penalty kick after 5 min of play and everythind would have looked diffenent from them on. They are right, but as it did not happen we have to settle with facts. MyPa was better, Ady being the man of the match.

In the dying minutes HJK captain got injured when tackled by Maxim Votinov, and he is likely to be out of the game for some 4 to 6 weeks, but it might do HJK a world of good. They need to replace him with someone who is more comfortable with the ball and let Medo do all the dirty work by himself. Unless they decide to go with Fowler, but not even HJK coach Muurinen can be that stupid, can he?

I am not too happy with my selection to back HJK, but that is the curse of pre-match bets. We do not know what is going to happen, we can only make educated guesses.
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Look for a stream, this game is televised at 19.00 + 2 gmt.

MyPa was awfully defenseminded last time around away at HJK, and even that they are playing home tonight the same is pretty much to be expected. There are no good strikers in the club after all and all points earned are equally important. Also two key defenders Timoska and Aho are doubtful.

In the previous game against Honka MyPa did not create any goalchances and neither did Honka, and the weaknesses of MyPa - goalie Antti Kuismala were not exposed, this will change tonight.

My first pick for this game is HJK-0.25 @ 1.87 which is slightly valuable according to numbers. (1.80 limit)

Second pick is HJK - 0.5 with the rosen price of 2.24 Sbobet. Wondering why and thanking Sbobet the same time.

Edit: Funny enough, the prices of HJK are getting higher at the moment, I can not see one single reason for that. If you want to bet HJK it might be worth while checking the odds actively now.


1x2 % 26.0% - 27.0% - 47.0% (3.85 - 3.70 - 2.13)
Moneyline 35.6% - 64.4% (2.81 - 1.55)
1x 53.0% (1.89)
x2 74.0% (1.35)
12 73.0% (1.37)
goal average 0.940 - 1.360

Handicaps

home -0.5 : away +0.5 26.0% - 74.0% (3.85 - 1.35)
home -1.5 : away +1.5 9.1% - 90.9% (11.02 - 1.10)
home +0.5 : away -0.5 53.0% - 47.0% (1.89 - 2.13)
home +1.5 : away -1.5 77.7% - 22.3% (1.29 - 4.48)
home +2.5 : away -2.5 91.7% - 8.3% (1.09 - 12.10)


home -1.5 : away +1.5 9.1% - 90.9% (11.02 - 1.10)
home -1.25 : away +1.25 10.0% - 90.0% (10.00 - 1.11)
home -1.0 : away +1.0 10.9% - 89.1% (9.16 - 1.12)
home -0.75 : away +0.75 18.5% - 81.5% (5.42 - 1.23)
home -0.5 : away +0.5 26.0% - 74.0% (3.85 - 1.35)
home -0.25 : away 0.25 30.8% - 69.2% (3.25 - 1.45)
home 0 : away 0 35.6% - 64.4% (2.81 - 1.55)
home 0.25 : away 0.25 44.3% - 55.7% (2.26 - 1.80)
home +0.5 : away -0.5 53.0% - 47.0% (1.89 - 2.13)
home +0.75 : away -0.75 61.7% - 38.3% (1.62 - 2.61)
home +1.0 : away -1.0 70.4% - 29.6% (1.42 - 3.37)
home +1.25 : away -1.25 74.0% - 26.0% (1.35 - 3.85)
home +1.5 : away -1.5 77.7% - 22.3% (1.29 - 4.48)



0.5 goals 90.2% (1.11) 9.8% (10.18)
1.5 66.9% (1.49) 33.1% (3.03)
2.5 40.6% (2.46) 59.4% (1.68)
3.5 20.1% (4.98) 79.9% (1.25)
4.5 8.4% (11.87) 91.6% (1.09)

Total Moneyline 0ver / under

1 goal 87.2% (1.15) 12.8% (7.82)
2 goals 55.1% (1.81) 44.9% (2.23)
3 goals 25.3% (3.96) 74.7% (1.34)
4 goals 9.5% (10.48) 90.5% (1.11)