Veikkausliiga: Inter Turku - FC Honka preview

This morning I re-checked if there was value to me to find in last night´s match RoPS vs HJK, it bothered me though I did not bet a single euro on that. My numbers show that had I found it on time there was a minimal value in RoPS +1, but it was very quickly eaten up so now I can continue with today´s top clash peace in mind.


Back to Inter - Honka. Who is the favourite here, and the underdog? In case you do not want to read the whole thing below I can tell you - in strict confidence of course - that Honka will win 0-1.

Is one goal enough to decide who is better now? Last season both matches were drawn, and last season these two were the best in the league. They also played a dress rehearsal before the season and Honka humbled Inter by making 10 substitutions in the half-time, and yet Inter could not even challenge the b-team of Honka youngsters.

There has been a clear tendency in Inter´s matches this season. Only of the teams scores, which leads also easily to the conclusion that the first goal decides.

For Honka scoring first has been no problem, but keeping the lead has been another matter, and the title-winning favourite has struggled to kill the games. In a league of only 26 rounds getting a draw almost equals to losing. Three points are vital.

Surely, looking at the table and keeping in mind that Inter is the reigning champion, and with the home advantage in football-mad gloryhunting City of Turku one might easily think that Inter is the favourite tonight.

It is not.

Not in my papers anyway. Honka has recently found the form the already had in the pre-season (La Manga cup winners in February 2009!) and Inter are struggling in front of the goal, in fact in front of both goals as the new recruits have not yet matched the outstanding talents of Chatto and Hooiveld who left to Sweden.

Honka has pretty much the best line-up available, (except Weckström) all they need to do now is to decide which is it, there are more than 20 players available. Almost all of them are young, hungry, talented.

Inter is missing Aho & Ramirez and the replacements are not awful by any means, not just that good.

Another thing to bear in mind; this might be the last match in Finland for several U21 - players who are off to Sweden soon for the EURO 2009. If they succeed there will be several takers from Scandinavian leagues.

The players in the U21-squad from these two are

Joni Aho and Mika Ojala from Inter,
Tuomo Turunen, Nicholas Otaru, Jussi Vasara and Aleksandr Kokko from FC Honka.


Likely line-up Inter;

Bantamoi-/Lehtonen-Verino-Nyman-Nikkari/-Kennedy-Paajanen-Kauko-Ojala/Furuholm-Grot.

FC Honka tonight:

Peltonen/Turunen-Hakanpää-Heilala-Aalto/Otaru-Vasara-Perovuo-Savage/Vuorinen-Puustinen.




Honka is the one wagging his tail tonight and Inter will be left waiting for better times. In case the prediction of FT 0-1 is not enough for you please study the numbers below to help you with a right betting decision.





1x2 Estimation % 34.0% - 32.0% - 34.0% (2.94 - 3.12 - 2.94)

Betfair Lay FC Inter 2.70

Ladbrokes X 3.20

Moneyline 50.0% - 50.0% (2.00 - 2.00)
1x 66.0% (1.52)
x2 66.0% (1.52)
12 68.0% (1.47)


FC Inter -0.5 : Honka +0.5 34.0% - 66.0% (2.94 - 1.52)
FC Inter -1.5 : Honka +1.5 13.2% - 86.8% (7.55 - 1.15)
FC Inter +0.5 : Honka -0.5 66.0% - 34.0% (1.52 - 2.94)
FC Inter +1.5 : Honka -1.5 86.8% - 13.2% (1.15 - 7.55)

FC Inter -1.5 : Honka +1.5 13.2% - 86.8% (7.55 - 1.15)
FC Inter -1.25: Honka +1.25 15.0% - 85.0% (6.67 - 1.18)
FC Inter -1.0 : Honka +1.0 16.7% - 83.3% (5.98 - 1.20)
FC Inter -0.75: Honka +0.75 25.4% - 74.6% (3.94 - 1.34)
FC Inter -0.5 : Honka +0.5 34.0% - 66.0% (2.94 - 1.52)
FC Inter -0.25: Honka +0.25 42.0% - 58.0% (2.38 - 1.72)
FC Inter 0.0 : Honka 0.0 50.0% - 50.0% (2.00 - 2.00)

Pinnacle Honka 2.09, SBOBET Honka 2.12
FC Inter 0.25 : Honka 0.25 58.0% - 42.0% (1.72 - 2.38)
FC Inter 0.5 : Honka -0.5 66.0% - 34.0% (1.52 - 2.94)
FC Inter 0.75 : Honka -0.75 74.6% - 25.4% (1.34 - 3.94)
FC Inter 1.0 : Honka -1.0 83.3% - 16.7% (1.20 - 5.98)
FC Inter 1.25 : Honka -1.25 85.0% - 15.0% (1.18 - 6.67)
FC Inter 1.5 : Honka -1.5 86.8% - 13.2% (1.15 - 7.55)


Goals

0.5 over 86.9% (1.15) under 13.1% (7.64)
1.5 over 62.0% (1.61) under 38.0% (2.63)

Betfair U 1.5 3.40

2.5 over 34.4% (2.90) under 65.6% (1.52)

Betfair Under 2.5 1.81

3.5 over 16.1% (6.22) under 83.9% (1.19)

Betfair Under 3.5 1.31

4.5 over 6.1% (16.45) under 93.9% (1.06)

Moneyline

1 o 82.6% (1.21) u 17.4% (5.74)
2 o 47.5% (2.11) u 52.5% (1.90)
3 o 19.7% (5.08) u 80.3% (1.25)
4 o 6.8% (14.81) u 93.2% (1.07)

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