Cup 7th round - April 25th 2012

Cup 7th round - 4 games. Hunting MIFK, skipping Inter and Honka and slightly interested in KuPS. Lets simplify things a bit; Veikkausliiga clubs should "never" lose vs Kakkonen clubs. A draw in an away game every now and then is understandable, but more likely the class difference at both ends of the pitch shows sooner or later and Veikkausliiga clubs should win by 2-6 goals and keep a clean sheet. This time Veikkausliiga continues on Sunday so the clubs try to get out of this round as easily as possible. Finnish Cup differs in this from German, French or England; a surprise indeed would be a surprise, not something you can almost expect in bigger footballing countries. It does not happen 100 % always: this season we have seen Klubi04 - MIFK 1-1 and Kemi PS - Jaro 2-2. A few season´s back VPS lost away at Jazz. There are also opposite examples of thrashing not so far away from 2011; Gnistan - KuPS 2-6, LPS - MIFK 0-8? (remember taking an under 3.25 there). Both those draws had a few excuses with injuries and attitude but all the possession, chances and skill is on Veikkausliiga clubs side if they have a decent lineup to show. However I personally dislike the combination of high handicap and low odds and hunt these kind of matches in live betting, and with some luck for example today MIFK is available at 0-0 @ -1 @ 2.00 after 10-15 minutes but the full-time result expectactions remain pretty much the same. If they "look" good enough  - or live stats support - it is not an impossible idea even to take them at 0-1 lead. Gnistan are a typical top Kakkonen side, not one of their players is good enough on individual level to play in Veikkausliiga club (MyPa signed one Gnistan winger this season to sit on the bench but not the other one on trial), but with a good manager (Honkavaara from HIFK) and fighting spirit they can perform most of the time on the pitch so well that it does not look that bad, but the better clubs end up scoring from every opportunity given, and there will be a plenty. In short, I am hunting MIFK here with a better price and line today, expecting correct score to be about 0-2. Artificial pitch. According to Mariehamn newspaper MIFK do rotate in-between league games. .. and the lineup came out as well, changed gk; mf Niskala and strikers Kangaskolkka and Jagne to start from the bench and come in if needed. Strong enough for me to get slightly excited in the hunt! Atlantis - Honka is a big but. Atlantis have a few veikkausliiga level players, physically strong team with self-confidence and skill - and a lot of hot temper which at times does not work at their favour. Honka have showed their true colours in the league and they are honestly playing rather badly, and I would not get surprised if the Atlantis players, many of whom originally from Africa - would intimidate the Honka kids on the soft surface. Still wondering about whether to go bravely for Atlantis +1.75 or skip this, but with latest performances Honka are definitely not an option in pregame betting. Most likely game to produce goals but bookies are well awake with 3.5 line.Honka lineup out: Peltonen;Äijälä-Heikkilä-Aalto-Aaltonen; Mombilo-Yaghoubi-Simpanen-Otaru; Vasara-Dudu. Rotation taking place and physically the Honka side is young and weak, but with good ball controlling skill. KooTeePee are an Ykkönen side and on a good day with a proper lineup it would be easy to say that the line is insanely high. However as local bookie Veikkaus who do get detailed lineup info first have decided to price Inter at 1.15 one can read between the lines that KooTeePee are thinking more about the Friday´s series kick-off at Ykkönen away at HIFK than this. (will be streamed for free, more about it tomorrow. Hopefully it can be viewed also abroad.)  Inter have top strikerSirbiladze on the bench and mf Kauko and gk Bahne are not dressing up at all. Uninteresting game really, but if things start to go wrong here for Inter their bench is almost empty of useful players. One home side player is actually denying the rumours of a rotated lineup in Twitter...No bet here, definitely not Inter Turku with the odds available. The most interesting of todays games is the replay from Sunday; KuPS - TPS. Highlights from that on website. It was offered at moneyline on Sunday and so it is now, KuPS are two players stronger this time with Zahovaiko and Ilo returning. A few players might be rested, but there are good enough replacements in the KuPS squad. I would like a bit more margin there for value, even game with goals scored to be expected. Veikkaus do see TPS as favourites, I might disagree a bit and  go with asian markets who see this as even at the moment. In the back of my head I see KuPS as favs. Market moves likely, unfortunately no straight suggestions can be given and it might well happen that I take no bets at all today, but in every case we talk again tomorrow!