18.4.2012

Round 2 - one game tonight. Lahti vs Honka




To keep it short, unless the odds move a lot there is no value to be found. Team News are already built-in the odds.

188 odds and moves

Team News: Lahti are without injured Grössohmichen (long-term, CB), Rafael and Kemppinen (strikers) and mf Mäkitalo who was the best player of Lahti vs Haka. Mf Ville Taulo is still doubtful because of missing license from Italy. If available he would help to replace Mäkitalo, if not then there is a one man hole in the midfield which might be covered with young and useful but rather light-weight Klinga and Honka for once could be physically stronger in the midfield. The only change in starting line-up from Haka game probably Mäkitalo missing.

Honka as usual do not talk too openly about what is their situation, but in the video preview it was mentioned that it is possible that another 2 new kids will get their debut; gk Kollar and df/mf Aaltonen.  Both do fill their place satisfactorily and Kollar is no worse keeper than Viitala, but if they really are going to give Aaltonen playing time when there are other defenders like experienced Koskinen available it says a lot about the future of both Koskinen and expectedly best choice keeper Peltonen. They are history in the eyes of Honka management. A couple of changes to be expected in starting line-up, no key position changes likely.

It does not really change the game a lot if one of these players is missing or not, it is a round game on not-so-perfect pitch with Honka as a better club as favourites. Three games played this winter, 2-0 Honka win in a Dec friendly, 4-1 home win for Honka indoors in the league cup and 2-2 draw outdoors in Lahti. The general opinion here is an under and though I am not probably going to place a total bet here my hunch says differently and 2.25 line is low. There will be mistakes and good invidual effort and Honka should be hungry enough to win the game to take the necessary risks to create goal chances and Lahti mf is the key.

Even big market moves possible, but as you noticed from last round the direction of the move is hard to predict. The moves last round were not logical really, apart from the one going KuPS´way.

If you really want to have something with above odds then it would be Honka - 0.25 for me.

Rest of the games of this round tomorrow, 3rd round on Sunday - Monday, a cup round on Wed-Thu with most of the Veikkausliiga clubs playing, 4th round the same weekend. You see my point about the importance of big squads which almost no club has? After 6 months of no football there are now 5 matches in first 2 weeks and injuries and tiredness is inevitable. Early odds about as expected, I think TPS odds will rise by kick-off significantly if you are planning on hitting in that match.

Ykkönen - the second highest league - to kick-off April 27th.

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Weekend´s Newsletter delivery faced technical problems. The service provider did reply and hopefully it does not happen again too soon or otherwise I need to start sending these directly from email - and it a lot less convenient. Let us keep an eye on it and let me know if there are problems.

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Kakkonen local odds for today opened at Veikkaus. 
Klubi04 - SalPa 1.40-4.50-5.00.
EIF - Pallohonka (often Honka 2 at bookies) 2.05 - 4.00 - 2.50. 

Will be more interested in these today and perhaps there is a ht live bet available today. From one or more of the games, but otherwise back with you tomorrow.

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Oh yes, the paid season. I try to come up with something by Friday this week. A service like this you have seen will go on for a very reasonable monthly fee with whole-season discounts, but I have not found out yet a satisfactory solution for those of you with bigger needs as I do not want to promise more than I can deliver.

Back with you tomorrow afternoon after lineups are out, today they are not that needed as changes apart from the ones mentioned very unlikely. GL!





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