TPS to take advantage of KuPS injury worries? And Inter Turku!
(no more updates after 15.25 local time)
Quick guide: Hope you have TPS already because best if not all value is gone, they are deservedly favourites even away because of KuPS missing half a dozen players because of injuries, suspensions and contractual problems. I have already Jaro as well for tomorrow, the hc is desperately wrong and too big and perhaps the HJK odds are not dropping this time. The only pregame match total that interests even slightly is Honka-JJK over, but I dislike pregame overs in general. More detailed thoughts below. And do not forget the Cup round on Wed-Thu with most league clubs playing and HJK-Jaro and KuPS-TPS being played also in the Cup! MyPa also missing a few of the most important players and suspect that they are not surprising anymore today. Inter -1 @ 1.86 taken with confidence.
Haka - MIFK
JJK - Haka 1-4 is a shocker, especially after a controlling and dangerous performance and it was described as "Haka should had scored more". MIFK were favoured at the market ahead of KuPS game and were much closer of winning. Even game to be expected, would go for +0.25 easily if I had to choose but as in most matches this preseason the opening odds are good and the bookies are well aware of the power relations - they will only get lost with injuries and big lineup changes sooner or later. Haka been bad most of the preseason and also vs Lahti, and the latest JJK win was mostly down to JJK underperforming big time.
Haka today: big squad to choose from. From regular starters McFaul and Dema on the bench, at Haka the injury situation is perhaps at best of all and they can rotate.
MIFK today: injured Kangaskolkka returns. Two strikers here as well as Jagne starts too.
Haka stadion far from good condition after the long and snowy winter. No pretty football to be expected and this is difficult game for me to have any strong opinions.
Honka - JJK
With the season start performances both are far away from top-3 spots, Honka again too slow in building up attacks and JJK too clumsy to defend properly and they have already conceded 6 goals vs mediocre opponents. At Honka they know that with the kid squad they have top positions are unlikely to this year and the bad results should cause no panic, at JJK success is more important as they are building their team with bigger sums of money.
Honka today: Mostly unchanged, Dudu starts as lone striker instead of Väyrynen. Mf Mäkijärvi added to bench after a long absence. Koskinen and Peltonen obviously unwanted and not even on the bench.
JJK today: Key mf Manninen is back! Centerbacks Pasoja-Nieminen instead of Reintam-Nieminen, I would prefer Pasoja-Reintam... Missing another key mf Jani Virtanen also from the bench. Df/mf Markkula missing. Good news and bad news, did not make predicting the winner here any easier but surely Honka are not +50 % winners. 3-3 CS? Both been disappointing really and are more or less the same quality.
Inter - MyPa
Top vs bottom in my ranking, but surely MyPa self-confidence is sky-high and as mentioned they will win games when everything goes well and their aggressive team defence and pressure works. When they need to go chasing for a goal things will change. Inter were convincing vs VPS, MyPa have been effective and hard-working and in the ideal world it brings points and some luck along. Materialwise no change, top players vs lower division work-horses. The formation and lineups of MyPa vs Jaro were rather original and lively with some added defenders, everything is allowed in football and love?
The arena is the same Paavo Nurmi - stadion where MyPa destroyed TPS´s hopes of a good league start, it is smaller than their normal pitch and it is not the regular home stadion for TPS or Inter. Goals can be scored here also, TPS won HJK there 3-1. If MyPa had started as expected I would had accepted -1.5, now this is not as automatic with a few minor injuries reported also from the Inter camp. I am pretty sure I am not going to turn my head and start suggesting MyPa anytime soon. A safe-sounding option would be -1, just as it was in the TPS-MyPa...
Inter today: Centerback Diallo missing also today but it caused no problems vs VPS. Same to be expected also today. Starting lineup very good, the quality drops badly after substitutions.
MyPa today: Missing cb Aho, mf Oksanen and mf Saxman, a new puzzle to be built. Lack quality and also a bit of quantity today, not many options on the bench.
KuPS - TPS (artificial pitch)
Popular bet of the day, and for a reason. No confirmation yet of KuPS situation but in the worst case scenario they miss a lot of players today, also seriously important regular starters. Edit: big missings confirmed!
KuPS today: At least striker Zahovaiko suspended. Lot of doubtfuls for various reasons. Venäläinen totally missing, Ilo starting from the bench. Puri still without license and we have a few kids and one old-timer in starting lineup. Voutilainen, Koljonen, Taipale. Bad starting 11, bad bench.
TPS today: No injuries or suspensions reported, important df Hurme who missed two first games will return. If TPS can reproduce the HJK-game they will win, but the horrible MyPa-game is only one week away...
Dont like suggesting dropping odds but put this on watch list if you do yet have TPS. KuPS is not an option with this starting 11.
VPS - Lahti
This will be another VPS-year with otherwise useful team as such, but they have no one to rely on to score the goals needed. Lahti are not that hot shots either and admittedly an under 2.25 can be considered if you are into that kind of thing. Or maybe not now after seeing the lineups!
VPS today: Important mf Fowler injured and missing and allround player Saranpää on the bench, new CB needed and looks like is mf Denis Abdulahi. VPS do not usually start with two strikers but today the have both Parikka and Morrissey starting, Parikka probably as withdrawn striker. A bit strange lineup and something new to try. VPS vs Inter were undangerous.
Lahti today: Still expectedly without mf Mäkitalo but otherwise a strong squad by Lahti standards. Same applies here than with Honka, max 50 % for VPS win.
Lahti +0.5 slightly interesting.
HJK - Jaro (artificial)
More detailed preview tomorrow. HJK general quality widely discussed several times, and there are now also injury worries and likely a new mf/striker from Egypt. Jaro value in every case.
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At Kakkonen there have been played a few matches and the season-long prediction regarding Klubi-04 is still valid. Two games so far, as -1.5 favs vs SalPa odds dropped quickly to 1.6 but then rose back because SalPa are no mugs (FT 0-0) and vs LoPa last night the -2 lasted only a few minutes and went down to 1.4. Ft 6-0. Pallohonka also played twice already, the did ok vs EIF and drew 1-1, yesterday vs BK-46 they were both awful and unlucky with the harsh refereiing decision of a penalty on first minute against them.
The only Kakkonen game today LPS-KTP is tricky, KTP have signed a quality keeper Jere Koponen from Inter and ex-Veikkausliiga striker Niko Ikävalko and on this level already 2-3 better players from higher leagues often make a significant difference and I would not consider these kind of season starters without being at the venue.
*****
Forementioned EIF will host JIPPO (local 1.85) today in the Cup, but as their performance was a jekyll and hide - type with two extremely different halves all that I can say is that JIPPO deserve to be favourites as they are a better club from a higher league. An upset not at all impossible, and of course this is very underish game as always with JIPPO both home and away. |
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