16.5.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 16.5.

FC YPA - AC Kajaani O3.25 57% 1,87 4/10 188bet
HauPa - PS Kemi U3.25 60% 1,71 2/10 188bet
GBK - KPV +0,5 2 58% 1,98 5/10 188bet

FC Santa Claus - TP-47 39 23 38
o/u 2.5: 60 40

Santa Claus lost deservedly against Warkaus which probably was one of the few results so far in this season that have made any sense. They still missed Hänninen, but it looks like they've signed Figho and Edereho who could be thought as a reasonably good players for this level assuming they've not gained weight during the winter which for some reason happens quite often for foreign players. TP-47's 4-5 loss to GBK is just a mind-boggling result so any total bets are certainly off-limits. However, TP-47 did miss the three K's: Konde (gk), Kovalev and Kivilä, who all should be an important part of their defense this year. TP-47 should be the better team of these two, but considering the last week's results and the TP-47's unknown lineup it'd probably make sense to wait for the lineups.

FC YPA - AC Kajaani 55 19 26
o/u 2.5: 72 28

YPA looked really poor against Kemi, so in a rare moment of clarity I've dropped them a lot in the rankings until they actually start producing good results. YPA still misses two key players in Heikkilä and Akmethanov, on the other side AC Kajaani thinks that there is no need to do any public relations work at this level so don't expect to see any news on their injuries this year. Kajaani has had a pretty good start in the league but I'm still a bit cautious because Kakkonen isn't really a exception to the rule that promoted teams sometimes overperform in the start of the season. YPA obviously has had a poor start resultwise but it should still be kept in mind that 2/3 of those games (GBK away and Kemi away) are likely the toughest games that any team will face this year. With a a vs b vs c logic the line should be around -0,75, but even if it were different this is not the type of match that I'd like to touch anyway.

HauPa - PS Kemi 25 22 53
o/u 2.5: 58 42

Both teams shouldn't be missing anyone significant. HauPa's draw against KPV was a bit lucky but overall they look to be continuing where they left off in 2011. While Kemi looked good against YPA it will take something more than that to convince me to think they've improved their form. Something like Kemi -0,25 won't very likely happen, so let's hope for similar odds like in HauPa - GBK with a small bet on the home team this time. Total looks really under-like but like last week showed, crazy results can sometimes happen.

GBK - KPV 42 22 36
o/u 2.5: 64 36

GBK might have a slightly better material but this should be a really tight game, as evidenced by the first three matches of the season and the cup matches between these two in the winter. In the injury front, both teams could be missing one starter (GBK: Halonen, KPV: Paavolainen). edit: +0,5 and odds of over 2,00 for KPV look really weird, so line-up check could be a good idea.

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