26.5.2012

Kakkonen Pohjoinen 26.5.

TP-47 - PK-37 U3.0 59,5% 1,71 4/10 188bet
TP-47 - PK-37 +0,75 2 64% 1,79 5/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - Warkaus JK +0,5 2 57% 1,92 4/10 Sbobet
FC YPA - Warkaus JK O3.0 58% 1,86 4/10 188bet
HauPa - AC Kajaani +0,5 2 58% 1,78 2/10 188bet (Just want to see them lose)
KPV - FC Santa Claus -0,75 1 46,5% 2,29 2/10 188bet
KPV - FC Santa Claus U3.0 55,5% 1,96 4/10 188bet

TP-47 - PK-37 43 24 33
o/u 2.5: 54 46

TP-47's Konde, Kovalev and Kivilä are still questionable, PK-37 will likely still miss Halonen who was supposed to be one of their main attacking threats this season. TP-47 has shown nothing so far to deserve being a 55% favorite (european bookmakers); even the hopelessly out of form YPA handled them last week. PK-37's last results haven't been that impressive in the past two, but they could have easily gotten more from both games. Even in optimal conditions TP-47 shouldn't be that much better than PK-37 so anything near 55% is a stretch.

FC YPA - Warkaus JK 43 21 36
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Warkaus should have deserved a win from last week's KPV game and overall they've been much sharper than YPA. However, the odds for the away win are not really worth it. The start of the season has been extremely low-scoring save for a few flukes (I'm looking at you, GBK), but the asian bookies still continue to offer 3.0 or 3.25 lines so total odds are unlikely to offer anything either. YPA still misses Akmetkhanov and Heikkilä, no idea about Warkaus.

HauPa - AC Kajaani 42 22 36
o/u 2.5: 64 36

In the continuing effort to be more responsive to what is actually happening on the field, AC Kajaani should probably start planning their next year in Ykkönen especially after the complete dominance they showed against GBK. To be serious, it might have been one of the instances that training matches actually mattered since GBK won Kajaani earlier this year 8-0, but it doesn't change the fact that Kajaani is playing pretty good right now. HauPa lost to Santa Claus but according to the report they were even dominating at times, so no reason to do any adjustments. 1x2 odds look like they are spot on, Makowski being out takes a big chunk of HauPa's attacking threat off but I'm not that interested in the under mostly because of AC Kajaani.

KPV - FC Santa Claus 53 22 25
o/u 2.5: 57 43

Eurobookie odds are in line with my own estimations so there's not much to say here. KPV is slightly better but Santa Claus has shown to be really effective in front of the goal and as a result they've managed to squeeze out every possible point. With the addition of healthy Hänninen and the new players Edereho and Figho on top of the proven Ylipaavalniemi Santa's striking department could be actually classified as quite good for this level. It might be that I'm looking too much on KPV's last two games, but both teams should more towards the bottom tier when it comes to goals so under could be playable.

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