Kakkonen Pohjoinen 8.5.

Nothing interesting in Tervarit-KPV, the other two later in the evening, if and when the odds come out.
e:
VIFK - ORPa -1,75 1 54% 1,93 2/10 188bet
VIFK - ORPa U3.75 61% 1,96 2/10 188bet

second edit: KPV a possible bet with the raised odds, but only after the lineups. For the PK-37 match the same deal, though with a line of +1.5 1.45 (~78%) it's a "small" value no matter what happens with the SJK/2 lineup.

Tervarit - KPV 44 22 34
o/u 2.5: 64 36

Even at this early in the season the standings are pretty accurate as these two will likely spent most of their time in the bottom third of the table. After three disappointing performances KPV has finally started to strengthen their team. Fielding just local players is nice, but there's very few cities in Finland where that inevitably doesn't lead to plenty of relegations. Last year's key defender Kalliokoski has rejoined the squad, tall and slow Jylhä comes from GBK where he was a regular starter and Jamaican Jason Watson joins from Haka, where he was on trial. Kalliokoski and Watson, who is highly praised, will probably help a lot, and Jylhä should still be a good Kakkonen-level player. However, all of them are more defensive players than offensive so goalscoring will most likely be a huge difficulty in the future too, especially because the towering Myntti suffered an injury against ORPa. Additionally, their only consistent goalscorer during last year, Laitinen, did not play against PK-37. Line-ups would be nice to know because so many of the key players are questionable.

This should be quite similar to the earlier ORPa-KPV match, except that Tervarit is rated slightly higher than ORPa in almost everyone's rankings. Tervarit performance against GBK was quite nice even if in the end the superior individual skill of GBK was the deciding factor. VIFK loss was not that bad either, but going anything higher than 44% (as in, nearly equal teams) would be very difficult. KPV does still have more recent experience from this level, and they haven't been totally outplayed in their losses (ok, maybe against VIFK). Tervarit has been missing plenty of players, but if any of them return it would be just a bonus as this is mostly based on the preseason plus the first two games. Likewise KPV could get significant boost if Watson, Kalliokoski, Laitinen and Myntti all play. Both teams have found it hard to score so far, which isn't that surprising when looking at both of their squads. Tervarit does have the excuse of playing against two of the preseason top-3 teams so it's interesting to see how their playing style changes against weaker opposition if at all, but despite that the over is something that I would not touch unless the line is 2.75, which hardly ever happens even if two under teams meet.

PK-37 - Kerho 07 37 21 42
o/u 2.5: 70 30

Hands down the toughest one to predict from today's encounters. In theory these teams should be fighting for the same positions in the middle table. PK-37 has been a nightmare to bet as they continue to defy expectations by never getting relegated. They did lose a hefty lead against TP-47 but that win was still pretty deserved even if it came at the last minute. KPV match was more even according to the home team's tracker (not the most 100% truthful source usually), but a win is a win nonetheless. Their only "star" player Kivilä was substituted out during the half-time, which could spell some trouble in an otherwise featureless team if he misses this game. PK-37 has been pretty tough at home, maybe due to a remote location, so that's something to keep an eye on. This year's mystery team is obviously Kerho 07 who are closely tied with the Ykkönen side SJK. In their first game they dominated PS Kemi away (though they lost), which probably will be an extremely rare occurrence this season. ORPa match was more sluggish, but they did get the opening win. A lot depends on the visitor's lineup, but if they continue in the same way this should be a very even contest. PK-37 matches have never provided much excitement in terms goals, and that was even more evident in Lähderinne's first season in 2012. With SJK/2 you can't draw many conclusion from the history as their Kolmonen was a cakewalk, but based on the preseason, which admittedly did feature plenty of different line-ups, and the player quality I'd expect them to be among the top half in o/u stats when the season's done.


VIFK - ORPa 80 13 7
o/u 2.5: 67 33

Top-3 vs bottom-3. VIFK deservedly lost against TP-47 on Saturday, but now the opposition will be much lighter for the home team. It's not difficult to see this game go similarly as the games against KPV and Tervarit earlier in the season, that is, an easy home win with a clean sheet. If I deciphered VIFK's preview correctly, they'll miss two regular starters from their defense and their first-choice goalkeeper. On Sunday, ORPa fought valiantly against SJK/2/Kerho in the first half but were overran in the second when Caumo scored twice. Like the other three minnows, ORPa will probably be quite competitive so don't expect many blowout losses, but actually picking up any points against teams other than Tervarit and KPV will likely prove to be very difficult during the season. ORPa is still testing some new strikers, but so far they've only made things worse. Important midfielder De Souza was injured against SJK/2. In short, with few exceptions ORPa's squad is filled with players that would likely have a very slim chance of starting in any of the other 7 teams, while VIFK has routinely been near the top-teams during the past few years (and with mostly the same team). VIFK and Kärde has never been about flashy offenses, at least statistically, so when the strongest part of ORPa are their goalkeepers the under could be worth a small bet in case the line is high enough. In any case, ORPa scoring would certainly surprise me.